[one_muggle]

People take real estate advice from a man named Chowderhead!?
Actually, I think I read that in the bible once–it was a sign of the apocalypse–right between the sea turning red and David Lereah spontaneously combusting. (if course, it was printed in China…)

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

People take real estate advice from a man named Chowderhead!?
Actually, I think I read that in the bible once–it was a sign of the apocalypse–right between the sea turning red and David Lereah spontaneously combusting. (if course, it was printed in China…)

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

I find it ironic that some are arguing over the real estate market for the 1 or 2 percent of the population with the idea that these are the super rich. If one looks at the Wells Fargo Opportunity Index (tracks the percent whom can afford the median), it averages around 30-40 percent for San Deigo, and dropped as low as 18 percent in the early 90’s. In LA it dropped into the low teens over the same period, but averages just a bit higher. Right now SD is around 5 percent, while LA has dropped to a touch over 2 percent!
So to the bottom 95-98 percenters, unless you already have a pile of cash, a generous relative or some real estate already in your pocket, you cannot afford the median.

Add in the Global Insights analysis, which takes into account historical prices (and hence the sunshine tax), population, jobs, and salaries, it is very hard to take any claims of RE ascendancy with any seriousness.
BTW: That report puts the area at nearly 50 percent over valued–and the same report actually had the area undervalued as late as 2001!

It has been said before, but this sounds more like the tech bubble than a prior RE bubble. Of course it will take longer to play out. RE is opaque, while stocks are transparent and it still took a couple of years for the tech bubble to renormalize.
Nobody ever knows for certain what will happen in any free market, but the mathematical expected value of RE is decidedly negative.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

I find it ironic that some are arguing over the real estate market for the 1 or 2 percent of the population with the idea that these are the super rich. If one looks at the Wells Fargo Opportunity Index (tracks the percent whom can afford the median), it averages around 30-40 percent for San Deigo, and dropped as low as 18 percent in the early 90’s. In LA it dropped into the low teens over the same period, but averages just a bit higher. Right now SD is around 5 percent, while LA has dropped to a touch over 2 percent!
So to the bottom 95-98 percenters, unless you already have a pile of cash, a generous relative or some real estate already in your pocket, you cannot afford the median.

Add in the Global Insights analysis, which takes into account historical prices (and hence the sunshine tax), population, jobs, and salaries, it is very hard to take any claims of RE ascendancy with any seriousness.
BTW: That report puts the area at nearly 50 percent over valued–and the same report actually had the area undervalued as late as 2001!

It has been said before, but this sounds more like the tech bubble than a prior RE bubble. Of course it will take longer to play out. RE is opaque, while stocks are transparent and it still took a couple of years for the tech bubble to renormalize.
Nobody ever knows for certain what will happen in any free market, but the mathematical expected value of RE is decidedly negative.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Don’t know about the REO, but this one was a distress(ed?)
sale in the same area.
I saw them trying to rent it for about $600/month above market, then it popped up on realtytrac and then it went For Sale.

106 N Mountain, 91024
According to Zillow:
03/12/2007: $985,000
09/19/2005: $1,100,000

Add in the carrying costs (cuz I know it never did rent) and that is a fair loss given the area is supposedly up quite a bit over that time period.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Don’t know about the REO, but this one was a distress(ed?)
sale in the same area.
I saw them trying to rent it for about $600/month above market, then it popped up on realtytrac and then it went For Sale.

106 N Mountain, 91024
According to Zillow:
03/12/2007: $985,000
09/19/2005: $1,100,000

Add in the carrying costs (cuz I know it never did rent) and that is a fair loss given the area is supposedly up quite a bit over that time period.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

FYI: Some info on CDO valuation:
From Calculated Risk
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/06/reelin-in-suckers.html

It appears the answer is more complicated than your question implies, and CDO leverage is complicated. If you are in first loss position, it looks like any small percent drop can put you upside down.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

FYI: Some info on CDO valuation:
From Calculated Risk
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/06/reelin-in-suckers.html

It appears the answer is more complicated than your question implies, and CDO leverage is complicated. If you are in first loss position, it looks like any small percent drop can put you upside down.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Well, most pure-bred dogs from good breeders start around $2k.
If you have the money and really want someone either to return a stolen dog or be motivated to stop when they see your dog running around, one grand doesn’t seem out of line. BTW: It costs about a grand to have someone train your puppy for you. So the financial investment can be quite large–nevermind the emotional.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Well, most pure-bred dogs from good breeders start around $2k.
If you have the money and really want someone either to return a stolen dog or be motivated to stop when they see your dog running around, one grand doesn’t seem out of line. BTW: It costs about a grand to have someone train your puppy for you. So the financial investment can be quite large–nevermind the emotional.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Things that are true:

Healthcare is screwed up.
Doctors lie to cover other Doctors.
Everyday people sue Doctors without cause.
Everyday a Doctor deserves to get sued.
Everyday a rich person get better care than a poor person.
Everyday a poor person in the US gets better care than a King twenty years ago.
Everyday someone dies because of a Doctor’s mistakes.
Everyday a Doctor saves a life.
Every year someone graduates last in his class in medical school and earns the title Doctor.
Everyday medical students face increasing tuition and liability and decreasing salaries.(http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/malpractice/nw/?postId=1950&pageTitle=Oregon+Doctors+Push+Legislators+for+Malpractice-Insurance+Relief)
Everyday Paris Hilton pays her dog sitter more per month than the chief of surgery at USC. (OK, I made that up)
And IMHO:
Michael Moore has an agenda.
Michael uses artistic license to push his agenda http://www.davekopel.org/terror/59Deceits.pdf
He isn’t always wrong.
But, he doesn’t try too hard to be right.
And he doesn’t let facts get in the way of a story that advances his agenda.
I girl I knew in college had a friend who said he heard from a very reliable source that Michael Moore eats unborn babies… It might have been a chicken egg, but we have no concrete evidence that it wasn’t a human baby. Maybe we should make a Crocumentary and let the world know.
Lastly, everday MM does less for this country and the world than do Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, or Michael Dell.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Things that are true:

Healthcare is screwed up.
Doctors lie to cover other Doctors.
Everyday people sue Doctors without cause.
Everyday a Doctor deserves to get sued.
Everyday a rich person get better care than a poor person.
Everyday a poor person in the US gets better care than a King twenty years ago.
Everyday someone dies because of a Doctor’s mistakes.
Everyday a Doctor saves a life.
Every year someone graduates last in his class in medical school and earns the title Doctor.
Everyday medical students face increasing tuition and liability and decreasing salaries.(http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/malpractice/nw/?postId=1950&pageTitle=Oregon+Doctors+Push+Legislators+for+Malpractice-Insurance+Relief)
Everyday Paris Hilton pays her dog sitter more per month than the chief of surgery at USC. (OK, I made that up)
And IMHO:
Michael Moore has an agenda.
Michael uses artistic license to push his agenda http://www.davekopel.org/terror/59Deceits.pdf
He isn’t always wrong.
But, he doesn’t try too hard to be right.
And he doesn’t let facts get in the way of a story that advances his agenda.
I girl I knew in college had a friend who said he heard from a very reliable source that Michael Moore eats unborn babies… It might have been a chicken egg, but we have no concrete evidence that it wasn’t a human baby. Maybe we should make a Crocumentary and let the world know.
Lastly, everday MM does less for this country and the world than do Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, or Michael Dell.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Wow… this racist anti-american thread is back!?
I thought the motto here was bring data, let’s see
Nobel Prizes as of 2006
USA:160
Japan: 12 (nope, didn’t forget a zero)
China: 5
FWIW: Poland nudges out Japan with 14, and Ireland follows closely with 10 (just pointing that out since I am a 1st generation McPollack myself–wonder if I get any “hybrid vigor”).
What data is out there to refute American’s dominance in innovation? Maybe more recent inventions? Like the transistor, computer, internet, world wide web (BTW:not the same thing), Google–but those are American too…

An admittedly anecdotal story:my uncle, who was but a babe when he got to these shores is now a self-made multi-millionaire. Not bad for a lazy, good for nothing Mick. Good thing all these Asians weren’t around back then to muck things up for him ;^)

The logic (or rather lack)here seems to be: People from another country to US universities because Americans are less intelligent…right. Makes no sense. People come to our universities because they know ours are among the best in the world. On balance that great sucking sound one hears is a brain drain from the rest of the world to the US. The reason Americans don’t flock to higher education (post graduate) is that it is hard and often does not payoff financially, at least not much more than a BA or BS (maybe a Masters), especially for smart, motivated native speakers.

The reason Asians and other immigrants do so well upon coming here is simple. Anyone with the energy, courage and ability to up and leave their homeland, and support system (family), as well as learn a new language and culture has already shown themselves to be better. Better than the average American and better than their average countrymen. The average immigrant is not your average person. These days the average American goes to college. Not so in most countries. So, it should not be surprizing that the average foreign college student is better then the average American.

But maybe it is the genes?
Two thousand years ago the Chinese became astronomers, pondering the universe. These days most are dirt farmers or factory workers. I guess their genes went bad. Two thousand years ago the Arabs had sewers, while the Euros were throwing crap out their windows. Now Arabs (not in direct power) scratch out livings while the Euros sip lattes wondering how to integrate the 20% of the population with no formal education–mostly Arab. Guess their genes got dated too.

Or maybe it has something to do with opportunity… no, that would put the burden back on us to do well. After all, you are probably average–by definition 8^P. Well, back to Pro-Wrestling, my TiVo is full of Paris Hilton interviews, so I can’t record it.

-one Ugly American muggle

[one_muggle]

Wow… this racist anti-american thread is back!?
I thought the motto here was bring data, let’s see
Nobel Prizes as of 2006
USA:160
Japan: 12 (nope, didn’t forget a zero)
China: 5
FWIW: Poland nudges out Japan with 14, and Ireland follows closely with 10 (just pointing that out since I am a 1st generation McPollack myself–wonder if I get any “hybrid vigor”).
What data is out there to refute American’s dominance in innovation? Maybe more recent inventions? Like the transistor, computer, internet, world wide web (BTW:not the same thing), Google–but those are American too…

An admittedly anecdotal story:my uncle, who was but a babe when he got to these shores is now a self-made multi-millionaire. Not bad for a lazy, good for nothing Mick. Good thing all these Asians weren’t around back then to muck things up for him ;^)

The logic (or rather lack)here seems to be: People from another country to US universities because Americans are less intelligent…right. Makes no sense. People come to our universities because they know ours are among the best in the world. On balance that great sucking sound one hears is a brain drain from the rest of the world to the US. The reason Americans don’t flock to higher education (post graduate) is that it is hard and often does not payoff financially, at least not much more than a BA or BS (maybe a Masters), especially for smart, motivated native speakers.

The reason Asians and other immigrants do so well upon coming here is simple. Anyone with the energy, courage and ability to up and leave their homeland, and support system (family), as well as learn a new language and culture has already shown themselves to be better. Better than the average American and better than their average countrymen. The average immigrant is not your average person. These days the average American goes to college. Not so in most countries. So, it should not be surprizing that the average foreign college student is better then the average American.

But maybe it is the genes?
Two thousand years ago the Chinese became astronomers, pondering the universe. These days most are dirt farmers or factory workers. I guess their genes went bad. Two thousand years ago the Arabs had sewers, while the Euros were throwing crap out their windows. Now Arabs (not in direct power) scratch out livings while the Euros sip lattes wondering how to integrate the 20% of the population with no formal education–mostly Arab. Guess their genes got dated too.

Or maybe it has something to do with opportunity… no, that would put the burden back on us to do well. After all, you are probably average–by definition 8^P. Well, back to Pro-Wrestling, my TiVo is full of Paris Hilton interviews, so I can’t record it.

-one Ugly American muggle

[one_muggle]

hipmatt,

Obviously you worship satan.
Just kidding–you’re obsolutely correct, I second your statement.

-one muggle

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