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    • February 22, 2021 at 1:26 AM #23037
      EconProf
      Participant

      After 45 years in San Diego as teacher, real estate investor, and contractor we are leaving. Apparently, so are a lot of other people. The cost of living, and especially the housing cost difference is one of the many reasons, and here are the specifics:
      1. Our brand new custom-designed house will cost about 1/3 the price we are getting for our current house and be 10% larger, all on one level.
      2. Our HOA will fall from $495/month to about $100. For that HOA we will be a two-block walk from a clubhouse with an exercise room, two pools (one summer, one winter), tennis courts, pickleball courts, etc., etc.
      3. Our property taxes will fall from $16,500 per year to about $3000.
      4. Monthly utility costs will be vastly lower.

      Piggs are invited to guess our destination.

    • February 22, 2021 at 7:27 AM #820590
      scaredyclassic
      Participant

      Idaho. Wait… vegas

      • February 22, 2021 at 7:51 AM #820592
        carlsbadworker
        Participant

        [quote=scaredyclassic]Idaho. Wait… vegas[/quote]

        Utility bills will be much lower in Vegas? Come on, you know how hot it would be in summer?

        • February 22, 2021 at 8:03 AM #820593
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Colorado is not 1/3rd the price. I’ll go with Idaho or St George UT though there are parts of AZ or NV that could fit this bill.

          Happy Trails! The reported demise of CA is greatly exaggerated

          https://on.mktw.net/2Zvso2n

        • April 30, 2021 at 5:58 PM #821256
          Sdcateacher
          Participant

          Idaho is over, the fabled day sof getting a spread and agreat house are gone. The #1 destination according to the WSJ is Northern Idaho. Want a great house, low taxes a cheap cost of living? North Carolina or and hour outside of Knoxville. Oklahoma as well. Buy your spread, bank money and spend your free time traveling.

        • February 22, 2021 at 8:16 AM #820595
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=carlsbadworker][quote=scaredyclassic]Idaho. Wait… vegas[/quote]

          Utility bills will be much lower in Vegas? Come on, you know how hot it would be in summer?[/quote]

          I assumed she would embrace the heat.

    • February 22, 2021 at 7:50 AM #820591
      carlsbadworker
      Participant

      I will try to guess use math. 1/3 price means property tax rate is $3000*3/$16500 = 54.5% of the CA rate.

      So that’s the lowest property tax rate in the US. Top 3 lowest property tax rate states are: Hawaii, Alabama and Colorado. Alabama should be cheaper in per square feet and Hawaii does’t need winter pool. So I would guess Colorado.

    • February 22, 2021 at 9:04 AM #820596
      Coronita
      Participant

      Some place outside of the US?

    • February 22, 2021 at 10:40 AM #820601
      XBoxBoy
      Participant

      Wyoming?

      This thread brings up one of the things that I think people overlook. We whine about how expensive housing in San Diego is, and get lots of talk from politicians about how they are going to create affordable housing. But expensive housing is how we discourage people from moving here (or to stay if they are here). Expensive housing is how we keep San Diego from being even more congested than it is.

      • February 22, 2021 at 10:58 AM #820602
        scaredyclassic
        Participant

        Also, what abput the riff raff.

      • February 22, 2021 at 2:47 PM #820606
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        [quote=XBoxBoy]Wyoming?

        This thread brings up one of the things that I think people overlook. We whine about how expensive housing in San Diego is, and get lots of talk from politicians about how they are going to create affordable housing. But expensive housing is how we discourage people from moving here (or to stay if they are here). Expensive housing is how we keep San Diego from being even more congested than it is.[/quote]

        Bay Area disagrees

      • March 2, 2021 at 12:31 PM #820724
        phaster
        Participant

        [quote=XBoxBoy]
        This thread brings up one of the things that I think people overlook. We whine about how expensive housing in San Diego is, and get lots of talk from politicians about how they are going to create affordable housing. But expensive housing is how we discourage people from moving here (or to stay if they are here). Expensive housing is how we keep San Diego from being even more congested than it is.[/quote]

        since this site was more or less started looking at RE, just wondering if other piggs noticed the genius business deal political leadership of this city pulled off (to help address the homeless issue)

        [quote]
        San Diego pays top dollar and near-top dollar for hotels to house the homeless


        …The city has borrowed almost half of the $106.5 million it paid for the two hotels

        …Commercial real estate broker Adrian Glover has consulted on hotel transactions for decades, representing buyers and sellers. He said the city paid too much for the two Residence Inn properties.

        “Hotels are worth probably 30 percent to 40 percent less than they were a year ago because of COVID-19,” he said. “This should have come out in the due-diligence period” of the escrow process.

        “The city is short of money. Somebody should be watching the pennies,” Glover said. “This is a windfall for the seller, but it’s a major burden for the buyer.”

        …The purchases also will eat into the city’s annual tax revenue as officials confront a $240 million budget deficit.

        In addition to the loss of property taxes generated by the two Residence Inns when they were privately held, the city will no longer collect the transient occupancy tax assessed on every room rented.

        Based on capitalization rates reflected in the CBRE appraisals — the measure of annual returns on investment — the city will lose about $866,000 a year in hotel taxes, plus $100,000 or more in annual income for the tourism marketing district.

        https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/watchdog/story/2021-02-21/san-diego-pays-top-dollar-and-near-top-dollar-for-hotels-to-house-the-homeless
        [/quote]

        • March 3, 2021 at 8:21 AM #820733
          Myriad
          Participant

          [quote=phaster]
          …Commercial real estate broker Adrian Glover has consulted on hotel transactions for decades, representing buyers and sellers. He said the city paid too much for the two Residence Inn properties.

          “Hotels are worth probably 30 percent to 40 percent less than they were a year ago because of COVID-19,” he said. “This should have come out in the due-diligence period” of the escrow process.

          Based on capitalization rates reflected in the CBRE appraisals — the measure of annual returns on investment — the city will lose about $866,000 a year in hotel taxes, plus $100,000 or more in annual income for the tourism marketing district.[/quote]

          Yep, the city should stop buying RE – they are f*** terrible at it.
          I looked up the prices as the Marriott Mission Valley was up for sale a while back. It was $242k/key in April 2019. Who pays more for a Residence Inn, only politicians do.
          [img_assist|nid=27317|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1200|height=600]

        • March 20, 2021 at 9:51 PM #820852
          phaster
          Participant

          [quote=Myriad]

          Yep, the city should stop buying RE – they are f*** terrible at it.

          I looked up the prices as the Marriott Mission Valley was up for sale a while back. It was $242k/key in April 2019. Who pays more for a Residence Inn, only politicians do.
          [img_assist|nid=27317|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1200|height=600][/quote]

          speaking of “genius” real estate deals FWIW ya might find the following pod cast interesting,…

          [quote]
          Kevin Faulconer’s City Hall and 101 Ash:
          The Worst Land Deal and the Biggest Cover-up


          Art Castanares of LaPrensa San Diego, is joined by guest host, Barbara Bry to discuss 101 Ash Street. This premiere episode features an exclusive interview with attorney Lawrence Shea on city of San Diego’s disastrous 101 Ash Street deal.

          (Originally aired on 2March21)


          [/quote]

          since faulconer is termed out of local office, seems he’s scheming to be governor

          https://www.kevinfaulconer.com

          too bad there wasn’t a virus that takes out the yuge population of “no talent ass clowns” (i.e. career politicians/pundits) to make the world a better place

          …on the bright side had to laugh at the description DeMaio gave of faulconer (i.e. “Meg Whitman without the dress”)

          [quote]
          The fighting over California’s top job has begun — among Republicans

          …Two prominent Republicans have already launched their campaigns — former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and businessman John Cox, who lost badly to Newsom in 2018.

          Since launching his gubernatorial run, Faulconer has quickly sought to position himself as the establishment pick. He rolled out a slate of endorsements from Republican lawmakers. A mailer from his campaign stresses that Faulconer was able to win in populous, diverse San Diego by persuading independent voters. That offers a “credible shot at winning statewide, despite California’s challenging voter registration,” the piece argues.

          But convincing the Chamber of Commerce is different from convincing MAGA adherents. Faulconer’s foes are already seeking to portray him as a milquetoast moderate who would not excite voters. Cox, who lost to Newsom in a landslide in 2018, has highlighted dubious real estate deals to try and portray Faulconer as corrupt. Cox attacked his rival in an ad entitled “Gavin Faulconer.”

          “I’m attacking corruption. I’m attacking incompetence and mismanagement. I don’t care if it’s Republican or Democrat,” Cox said in an interview. “I don’t think Kevin Faulconer has any business running for governor.”

          Faulconer has also drawn steady fire from former San Diego Councilman Carl DeMaio, a longtime rival and staunch Trump supporter who hosts a popular conservative talk radio show. DeMaio launched a website that portrays Faulconer as a liberal in disguise, drawing a public rebuke from Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.).

          Choosing an establishment-favored centrist like Faulconer would squander the energy and enthusiasm galvanizing California Republicans, DeMaio argues. He said California Republicans, desperate for a victory, have “demoralized the base” by seeking to elevate someone more like the Democrats.”

          “It is vitally important to rebuild the infrastructure in the state. A recall race – win, lose, or draw – can be a real turning point for the Republican Party. You can only do this if you have a candidate you can be proud of and who can motivate the base,” DeMaio said in an interview, arguing that Faulconer’s ascendancy was “part of the death-spiral of the Republican party” and calling Faulconer “Meg Whitman without the dress.”

          https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/03/10/the-fighting-over-californias-top-job-has-begun-among-republicans-1367493
          [/quote]

    • February 22, 2021 at 11:43 AM #820603
      an
      Participant

      AZ

    • February 22, 2021 at 12:07 PM #820594
      Hobie
      Participant

      summer-winter pools, … cancel FL, how about Las Cruces,Prescott

    • February 22, 2021 at 4:11 PM #820614
      barnaby33
      Participant

      Wherever it is, it sure seems affordable until all the locals slash your tires because you’re a California equity locust driving up local costs! Still good luck.
      Josh

    • February 22, 2021 at 5:05 PM #820615
      gzz
      Participant

      Your 16k current property tax means you paid about 1.5M.

      1/3 is 500k but only 3k property taxes. That’s absurdly low rate. Some Texas and NJ suburbs pay 15-20k on a 500k house. Place with ultralow property taxes like that either have few children or have a huge non residential tax base.

      What makes less sense is why a long time resident of boomer age isn’t locked into a much lower rate because of an older purchase.

      Vastly lower utilities? Our gas and water isn’t especially high. Our electricity is, but also is just about the cleanest mix outside of areas blessed with lots of hydro. I am OK paying a bit extra to not use coal.

      New construction may be very well insulated. But when I lived in the Midwest we hated how stuffy the house would get in winter so we opened the windows a crack or two unless it was below 20. That was expensive but fresh air is worth it.

      I am not against leaving SD, but the only dry and warm climate I could enjoy would be NV or AZ. Florida and south texas are too humid and insecty, everywhere else too cold.

      • February 22, 2021 at 5:22 PM #820617
        scaredyclassic
        Participant

        could be including mello roos?

      • February 22, 2021 at 5:47 PM #820620
        svelte
        Participant

        [quote=gzz]
        I am not against leaving SD, but the only dry and warm climate I could enjoy would be NV or AZ. Florida and south texas are too humid and insecty, everywhere else too cold.[/quote]

        I’ve lived in my share of states west of the Mississippi and decided early on I’d rather be scraping by in California than rich anywhere else. When it comes down to it, money doesn’t mean as much to me as the environment where I live.

        If others decide to leave, best wishes and I’m all for it. One less resident here!

        • February 22, 2021 at 6:01 PM #820622
          EconProf
          Participant

          So far only one Pigg nailed it.

          Another hint: great scenery

        • February 22, 2021 at 6:35 PM #820623
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          prescott it is

        • February 22, 2021 at 8:19 PM #820627
          ucodegen
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]So far only one Pigg nailed it.

          Another hint: great scenery[/quote]
          Humm.. that makes me think St George, UT… which is about 40 miles outside of Zion National Park. It is also near Snow Canyon State Park and Red Cliffs National Conservation Area.

          I went through there early fall 2020 on a visit to Bryce and Zion. It was a bit warm in St. George and Zion. Bryce’s weather was very nice though. Good timing on my part though because about a week later it snowed in Bryce.

        • February 23, 2021 at 3:20 AM #820629
          EconProf
          Participant

          Bingo. sdrealtor also mentioned it.

          Population about 150,000 in the metropolitan area and growing like crazy. Zion National Park about 30 minutes away and Vegas two hours south. Weather a bit better than Phoenix and Vegas because of higher elevation–5-10 degrees cooler in summer and winter.
          Because of its growth, everything is new there–stores, housing developments, national chains, etc. Everything within about a ten minute drive, on great roads, and I-15, which runs through it.
          The people are young, have conservative politics, good schools (they largely did not close down from COVID, and in gyms few wear masks), no visible homeless people, and economy booming. Yes, I’ll invest in RE there.
          The people are about two-thirds Mormon, which we are just fine with. Makes for large, healthy-looking families, hard workers, clean government, old-fashioned family values, low taxes.

        • February 23, 2021 at 8:04 AM #820634
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]Bingo. sdrealtor also mentioned it.

          Population about 150,000 in the metropolitan area and growing like crazy. Zion National Park about 30 minutes away and Vegas two hours south. Weather a bit better than Phoenix and Vegas because of higher elevation–5-10 degrees cooler in summer and winter.
          Because of its growth, everything is new there–stores, housing developments, national chains, etc. Everything within about a ten minute drive, on great roads, and I-15, which runs through it.
          The people are young, have conservative politics, good schools (they largely did not close down from COVID, and in gyms few wear masks), no visible homeless people, and economy booming. Yes, I’ll invest in RE there.
          The people are about two-thirds Mormon, which we are just fine with. Makes for large, healthy-looking families, hard workers, clean government, old-fashioned family values, low taxes.[/quote]

          Looks like the guy who’s usually right was right again. First one to nail it:)

          A buddies twin brother is bailing and going there also. Great for outdoorsy people. The drive through the Virgin River Canyon on 15 is one of my Top 5 drives in America. Like a real life video game. Went on a walk with a neighbor friend this weekend that has a place up in Brian Head. He grew up in Mass so loves the winter fun and snowmobiling up there. They have great golf courses in St George also.

          That’s not a place I could ever live as I love being in the thick of things but I see the attraction for many. Congrats and enjoy!

        • February 23, 2021 at 8:15 AM #820636
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          Looked ok when i passed through. I was projecting, prescott i guess was for me. St geo. Sounds like a good place to end up. Good health, professor!

        • March 6, 2021 at 3:26 PM #820765
          phaster
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]Went on a walk with a neighbor friend this weekend that has a place up in Brian Head. He grew up in Mass so loves the winter fun and snowmobiling up there. They have great golf courses in St George also.
          [/quote]

          as a teen did some skiing in Brian Head and always thought it would be neat to have a vacation home there or up in the mammoth lakes area because those areas seemed so “lush” WRT SD

          last week drove one of my vehicles out to Julian to charge up my battery and also get some apple pie (figured I’d kill two birds w/ one stone)

          anyway what I noticed is it’s really dry out in east county AND this seems to be the case w/ the rest of CA according to news reports

          [quote]
          California is bone dry. Will March bring more misery or a miracle?

          …Los Angeles and Southern California have lots of company in this respect. The state and the West are gripped by persistent drought, including large areas of exceptional drought in the Southwest

          https://news.yahoo.com/california-bone-dry-march-bring-002412223.html
          [/quote]

          the reason I mention as a teen thinking Brian Head and Mammoth were lush and wanting a vacation home/ranch is realize things were quickly changing

          as a teen what I thought was normal (areas of the western USA being “lush”) was actually abnormal in the grand scheme of things

          point being many parts of the western USA can be in drought conditions for thousands of years

          Danger Cave Near Wendover Provided Clues to Ancient Utah Dwellers

          as an “investor” in real estate the extended period of drought made me think it important to investigate the potential of fire storms in a location

          sadly growing up and taking classes @ UCSD I lost the “dream” that a place like Brian Head was lush

          basically after learning more about the long term climate conditions in the south western USA can be in drought for thousand of years,…this implies there was an elevated risk of fire, which means higher insurance rates or even the possibility of not being able to get insurance (due to co$t$)

          https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-05/california-bans-insurers-from-pulling-policies-in-fire-ravaged-areas

          my drive out to Julian prompted me to do is google info on the topic of drought/wildfire AND rediscovered news items about the last big fires here in SD

          [quote]
          Revisiting a San Diego County story from 2005: “Choppers devour millions”

          https://fireaviation.com/2021/02/10/revisiting-a-san-diego-county-story-from-2005-choppers-devour-millions/
          [/quote]

          thought it important to bring up the topic of fire storms because given our dry winter weather conditions,… this summer the odds of a devastating wildfire is something everyone should keep in mind

        • February 23, 2021 at 9:12 AM #820637
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]Bingo. sdrealtor also mentioned it.

          Population about 150,000 in the metropolitan area and growing like crazy. Zion National Park about 30 minutes away and Vegas two hours south. Weather a bit better than Phoenix and Vegas because of higher elevation–5-10 degrees cooler in summer and winter.
          Because of its growth, everything is new there–stores, housing developments, national chains, etc. Everything within about a ten minute drive, on great roads, and I-15, which runs through it.
          The people are young, have conservative politics, good schools (they largely did not close down from COVID, and in gyms few wear masks), no visible homeless people, and economy booming. Yes, I’ll invest in RE there.
          The people are about two-thirds Mormon, which we are just fine with. Makes for large, healthy-looking families, hard workers, clean government, old-fashioned family values, low taxes.[/quote]

          Congrats Econ. I’m happy for you!

        • February 24, 2021 at 8:07 AM #820651
          barnaby33
          Participant

          I think you are over-romanticizing the Mo’s. Either way you’re writing as someone who’s smitten with a new adventure and hoping for the best.
          Josh

        • February 24, 2021 at 10:25 AM #820655
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=barnaby33]I think you are over-romanticizing the Mo’s. Either way you’re writing as someone who’s smitten with a new adventure and hoping for the best.
          Josh[/quote]

          always the ray of sunshine 😉

    • February 22, 2021 at 5:08 PM #820616
      gzz
      Participant

      Having 1 million less in RE in this market means you’re leaving a 150k equity gain on the table in my estimation. Sounds like you might have other exposure though.

      Personally I will probably hold until the next RE bubble.

    • February 23, 2021 at 5:52 AM #820630
      Hobie
      Participant

      .

    • February 23, 2021 at 10:30 AM #820639
      (former)FormerSanDiegan
      Participant

      Interesting move EconProf…

      Thanks for freeing up some space for those of us moving back to San Diego from more expensive places further north.
      After 16-ish years we are planning to move back to San Diego later this year due to the relative affordability compared to LA’s Westside.

      • February 23, 2021 at 10:49 AM #820640
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        [quote=FormerSanDiegan]Interesting move EconProf…

        Thanks for freeing up some space for those of us moving back to San Diego from more expensive places further north.
        After 16-ish years we are planning to move back to San Diego later this year due to the relative affordability compared to LA’s Westside.[/quote]

        Youre not alone. Market here is on fire with folks pouring in from L.A. And Bay area. Not sure where your looking but follow the North County Coastal monitor for updates and feel free to ask questions

        • February 23, 2021 at 4:13 PM #820645
          EconProf
          Participant

          I agree the market here is hot–we sold our house to the first couple that saw it and they took 20 minutes to say yes to our asking price. Yeah, I know. I should have asked more, but we are now tenants for two months while the St. George house gets finished.
          Footnote: I said our property taxes would fall from over $16,000 per year to 3,000. That’s about one-half of one percent of the value of the house, which seems unrealistically low. A realtor gave me that figure and I’d like another source to confirm it, so don’t quote me. And yes, our SD house taxes included Mello Roos.
          Agree that the SD market is hot, but the St. George market is hotter. Almost nothing sells for asking price, bidding wars are the norm, and loan contingencies in offers get nowhere. New developments are popping up all over, and Cedar City, an hour north on I-15 is just as hot, as is Hurricane, just north of St. George.
          The population is exploding as new residents come in from everywhere, especially CA. Because St. George schools are largely open, teachers tell of CA parents desperate to get their kids into in-person learning, so some are living in St. George motels in order to do so.
          All the contractors are overwhelmed with work. Imported workers live in motels or sleep in their vehicles in motel parking lots–probably to use the facilities of the room where their buddies are staying. One realtor told me tofigure on one and a half years to get a new house built.
          While the SD and St. George markets are both hot, it is for different reasons, as perhaps sdrealtor can confirm. St. George is strong because of people moving in, while SD is strong because of lack of inventory. That lack of inventory due to COVID fears, plus expense of building here. And I also suspect tech refugees are deserting their shithole LA and Bay area cities to come to tech-friendly San Diego. Thoughts…?

        • February 23, 2021 at 9:16 PM #820647
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Surprised to hear you say they are hot for different reasons because this is economics 101. They are hot because demand is far greater than supply. More people are coming than leaving. Inventory is low here but there are ten buyers for most houses. Inventory is not that low. People are coming to both places because of what they have to offer

        • July 8, 2021 at 8:37 AM #822402
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]
          The population is exploding as new residents come in from everywhere, especially CA. Because St. George schools are largely open, teachers tell of CA parents desperate to get their kids into in-person learning, so some are living in St. George motels in order to do so.
          [/quote]

          This just in.

          https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2021-07-07/is-california-losing-its-luster-uc-san-diego-survey-says-no

          “The exodus of Californians forecast in recent news headlines isn’t likely to happen soon, UC San Diego researchers reported in a survey released Wednesday.”

          “Another facet of the study, conducted by Stanford and Cornell Universities, analyzed two decades of Franchise Tax Board Data and found no evidence that millionaires are fleeing the state, despite increased taxes on high-wage earners.

          A separate analysis from Cornell University gave a different spin to the parable of the Golden State. It showed that California’s share of U.S. venture capital dollars rose from one-third of the national total in 1995 to nearly half by 2021, far eclipsing other large states, including New York, Florida and Texas.”

        • July 8, 2021 at 9:07 AM #822403
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          I pretty much said the same on page one of the thread. I’ve heard these claims for decades. What’s amazing is that the data driven econ prof falls back on anecdotes to bash the state that created his wealth because of his political views after saying from the outset he’s moving to be around family. Such nonsense

        • July 8, 2021 at 9:34 AM #822404
          Hobie
          Participant

          We are losing a house seat based on census data showing less people.
          https://apnews.com/article/census-2020-government-and-politics-california-dd4a4f3ce3070231b0aecdc1cac3e97b

        • July 8, 2021 at 10:15 AM #822405
          Coronita
          Participant

          [quote=Hobie]We are losing a house seat based on census data showing less people.
          https://apnews.com/article/census-2020-government-and-politics-california-dd4a4f3ce3070231b0aecdc1cac3e97b%5B/quote%5D

          Well since everyone likes to claim “fake data” I’l throw this out. Didn’t the previous admin intentionally try to undercount the people in this state by excluding undocumented people?

        • July 9, 2021 at 1:28 PM #822410
          gzz
          Participant

          Didn’t the previous admin intentionally try to undercount the people in this state by excluding undocumented people?

          Trump’s plan was to exclude unlawful residents from reapportionment of congressional districts, and give states the option to exclude them from redistricting. It was not to have the census not count them at all.

          The effect of the former would be to give rust belt states about 9 more House seats and electoral votes at the expense of CA/TX/NY/FL/NJ. The effect of the latter would be to have more state legislative seats in white and black neighborhoods and fewer in hispanic and asian areas. The states that would have both implemented it, and where it would have had a major effect, is mostly TX and GA.

        • July 12, 2021 at 12:32 AM #822448
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          117 degrees in St George today

        • July 16, 2021 at 4:55 PM #822535
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]117 degrees in St George today[/quote]

          Might as well live in Vegas! At least there is something to do there!

        • July 12, 2021 at 8:41 AM #822450
          Anonymous
          Guest

          [quote=gzz]

          Didn’t the previous admin intentionally try to undercount the people in this state by excluding undocumented people?

          Trump’s plan was to exclude unlawful residents from reapportionment of congressional districts, and give states the option to exclude them from redistricting. It was not to have the census not count them at all.

          The effect of the former would be to give rust belt states about 9 more House seats and electoral votes at the expense of CA/TX/NY/FL/NJ. The effect of the latter would be to have more state legislative seats in white and black neighborhoods and fewer in hispanic and asian areas. The states that would have both implemented it, and where it would have had a major effect, is mostly TX and GA.[/quote]

          Why would undocumented people be considered for Congressional districting? They can’t vote so they are not represented by definition.

        • July 12, 2021 at 11:14 AM #822453
          gzz
          Participant

          Why would undocumented people be considered for Congressional districting? They can’t vote so they are not represented by definition.

          The Constitution says it should be based on the census, excluding only “Indians not taxed.”

          Children, disenfranchised felons, and lawful resident aliens have always been included in apportionment and redistricting and cannot vote. Trump did not want to exclude any of these groups, only unlawful aliens.

          Another wrinkle with his plan is the line between illegal and legal can be blurred. For example, successful DREAMERS did not break the law when they entered as minors, and have specific authorization to both work and remain in the USA by the federal government. They cannot be deported unless they commit a crime and can work here legally, so they are in the same position as a lawful permanent resident, except that they cannot leave the USA and then return. This legal status is pretty close to what a huge number of unnaturalized immigrants were in in the 1790s, and such people were included in censuses and apportionments.

        • July 12, 2021 at 12:36 PM #822460
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Are Bingo Halls air conditioned? Asking for a friend

        • July 15, 2021 at 1:10 PM #822508
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          So here is some data for EP.

          My hometown of Cherry Hill NJ has a median HH income of $105K. It has demographics similar to Carlsbad, top rated schools and healthcare. Its an easy one hour drive to lovely Jersey Shore towns. Its an easy 15 minute drive to Philadephia with great jobs, multiple teaching hospitals some of which rank among the best in the country and Ivy League schools nearby. They have professional sports and world class musuems and theatre in Philly. School funding is among the highest in the country. The median home price is $336K.

          The median HH income in St George is under $50K. It has none of that. School funding is among the lowest in the country. The only university was recentlya two year associate degree college. No theatre, no international airport, no teaching hospitals, no major industries, no pro sports, no beaches, no culture or diversity. The median home price is $430K.

          And you dont think you just bought into one big time bubble that will come crashing down as soon as the economy turns? You have bought into Hemet circa 2005.

        • July 15, 2021 at 2:59 PM #822509
          Anonymous
          Guest

          [quote=sdrealtor]So here is some data for EP.

          My hometown of Cherry Hill NJ has a median HH income of $105K. It has demographics similar to Carlsbad, top rated schools and healthcare. Its an easy one hour drive to lovely Jersey Shore towns. Its an easy 15 minute drive to Philadephia with great jobs, multiple teaching hospitals some of which rank among the best in the country and Ivy League schools nearby. They have professional sports and world class musuems and theatre in Philly. School funding is among the highest in the country. The median home price is $336K.

          The median HH income in St George is under $50K. It has none of that. School funding is among the lowest in the country. The only university was recentlya two year associate degree college. No theatre, no international airport, no teaching hospitals, no major industries, no pro sports, no beaches, no culture or diversity. The median home price is $430K.

          And you dont think you just bought into one big time bubble that will come crashing down as soon as the economy turns? You have bought into Hemet circa 2005.[/quote]

          You make some good points sdr but come on, lay off the guy. He is going there to retire and live out his golden years among like minded people. Don’t think he cares if the RE bubble bursts in St George. If it bursts there it will be due to the everything bubble bursting anyway (obviously it will crush St George far worse than SD or other areas granted).

        • July 15, 2021 at 3:14 PM #822510
          The-Shoveler
          Participant

          IMO the FED and the powers that be cannot afford to let the everything bubble crash and will do whatever it takes to not let it crash.

          Can it be done? not sure but look at China, what’s it been 35 years or more LOL.

          But maybe I am wrong.

        • July 15, 2021 at 3:19 PM #822511
          Anonymous
          Guest

          [quote=The-Shoveler]IMO the FED and the powers that be cannot afford to let the everything bubble crash and will do whatever it takes to not let it crash.

          Can it be done? not sure but look at China, what’s it been 35 years or more LOL.

          But maybe I am wrong.[/quote]

          You mean Japan, but yes you are correct. The Fed has proven time and time again, by their actions, that they will do all in their power to keep it going.

          On Wall St. this is such a joke that the primary case for bull market for the last several years was simply “Don’t fight the Fed”, nothing do to with economics or earnings.

          The mystery is how long can they keep this up, and what happens when they lose control?? Nobody really knows.

        • July 15, 2021 at 4:28 PM #822512
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]So here is some data for EP.

          My hometown of Cherry Hill NJ has a median HH income of $105K. It has demographics similar to Carlsbad, top rated schools and healthcare. Its an easy one hour drive to lovely Jersey Shore towns. Its an easy 15 minute drive to Philadephia with great jobs, multiple teaching hospitals some of which rank among the best in the country and Ivy League schools nearby. They have professional sports and world class musuems and theatre in Philly. School funding is among the highest in the country. The median home price is $336K.

          The median HH income in St George is under $50K. It has none of that. School funding is among the lowest in the country. The only university was recentlya two year associate degree college. No theatre, no international airport, no teaching hospitals, no major industries, no pro sports, no beaches, no culture or diversity. The median home price is $430K.

          And you dont think you just bought into one big time bubble that will come crashing down as soon as the economy turns? You have bought into Hemet circa 2005.[/quote]

          You make some good points sdr but come on, lay off the guy. He is going there to retire and live out his golden years among like minded people. Don’t think he cares if the RE bubble bursts in St George. If it bursts there it will be due to the everything bubble bursting anyway (obviously it will crush St George far worse than SD or other areas granted).[/quote]

          Exactly and I’ll lay off him when he drops the political nonsense. There is no safety net under St George. It is poised to drop big time no matter what happens here. We have some fundamental things going in our favor. He’s got a handful of disgruntled Republicans he’s banking on who will flee at the first sign of trouble

          Another anecdote. $2m plus home closed up here recently. Couple of young IG influencers. One has a wealthy father in Texas who picked up the tab.

        • July 17, 2021 at 7:06 PM #822545
          Escoguy
          Participant

          [quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]So here is some data for EP.

          My hometown of Cherry Hill NJ has a median HH income of $105K. It has demographics similar to Carlsbad, top rated schools and healthcare. Its an easy one hour drive to lovely Jersey Shore towns. Its an easy 15 minute drive to Philadephia with great jobs, multiple teaching hospitals some of which rank among the best in the country and Ivy League schools nearby. They have professional sports and world class musuems and theatre in Philly. School funding is among the highest in the country. The median home price is $336K.

          The median HH income in St George is under $50K. It has none of that. School funding is among the lowest in the country. The only university was recentlya two year associate degree college. No theatre, no international airport, no teaching hospitals, no major industries, no pro sports, no beaches, no culture or diversity. The median home price is $430K.

          And you dont think you just bought into one big time bubble that will come crashing down as soon as the economy turns? You have bought into Hemet circa 2005.[/quote]

          You make some good points sdr but come on, lay off the guy. He is going there to retire and live out his golden years among like minded people. Don’t think he cares if the RE bubble bursts in St George. If it bursts there it will be due to the everything bubble bursting anyway (obviously it will crush St George far worse than SD or other areas granted).[/quote]

          Drought, now floods: I hope everyone stays safe but with an eye on Germany, some forces of nature can be very impactful:

          ‘Worst I’ve ever seen’: Flash flood spreads mud through Springdale, closes Zion

        • July 15, 2021 at 5:05 PM #822514
          EconProf
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]So here is some data for EP.

          My hometown of Cherry Hill NJ has a median HH income of $105K. It has demographics similar to Carlsbad, top rated schools and healthcare. Its an easy one hour drive to lovely Jersey Shore towns. Its an easy 15 minute drive to Philadephia with great jobs, multiple teaching hospitals some of which rank among the best in the country and Ivy League schools nearby. They have professional sports and world class musuems and theatre in Philly. School funding is among the highest in the country. The median home price is $336K.

          The median HH income in St George is under $50K. It has none of that. School funding is among the lowest in the country. The only university was recentlya two year associate degree college. No theatre, no international airport, no teaching hospitals, no major industries, no pro sports, no beaches, no culture or diversity. The median home price is $430K.

          And you dont think you just bought into one big time bubble that will come crashing down as soon as the economy turns? You have bought into Hemet circa 2005.[/quote]

          sdr: for starters, New Jersey is losing population. Why would that be? And if you think Philly is good for culture, the arts, and theatre, check out their crime rate before going downtown.
          St. George/Washington City is exploding with growth because of its culture, broadly defined. Theatre, museums, concerts, a rapidly expanding 4-year university, lauded health care, year-around outdoor activities such as hiking, biking trails, parks (minus the homeless in tents), and numerous gyms. The people are young, healthy, and fully employed–unemployment rate 2.9%. Because the cost of living is so low, average income means little. True, the average household income is slightly under the US average. But adjusted for COL is what counts. For example, my total utilities for last month were $181.10–gas and electric, water and sewer. That’s with our hotter weather and the AC on constantly in a 2500 SF house. My friend in Scripps Ranch recently told me his total was over $1,000.
          Educational quality has little to do with spending. In NYC the per pupil spending is over $20,000 per year, and their educational attainment is dreadful. CA is notorious for high government spending in most every category and abysmal results. San Diego is the best of the big cities, but it is still in CA.

        • July 15, 2021 at 9:27 PM #822515
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          NJ has been losing population for decades because people move to warmer climates as they age

          But you completely avoided the elephant in the room. The median home price in St George is almost $500k!!! The median household income is under $50k!!! You moved to Hemet!!

          Oh and my total utilities last month here in Carlsbad in my 2700 sq ft house on 11,000 sq ft lot? Under $90! I do have solar but after 6 years it’s paid for itself.

          Living with AC on 24/7 by necessity? Sounds dreamy!

          I checked out the concert scene there. Laughable. Better shows at the little Belly Up tavern in Solana Beach.

          I checked out theatre. Basically community theatre at best

          Museums? Basically Indian artifacts

          Fully employed? At WalMart and fast food joints

          Low cost of living? There is nothing to do there to spend money on except overpriced housing that is heading for a major crash

          Great schools? Here is the top rated high school. The others are much worse

          https://www.greatschools.org/utah/saint-george/702-Dixie-High-School/

          Rapidly expanding 4 year university? It will never be a true research based university of any acclaim. It will train the basic workers you need for schools and healthcare caregivers not physicians but it will never approach the scale of a UC or even CSU school.

          Enough with the nebulous claims. You said I only brought snark but I keep bringing up specific examples and you bring empty claims. Bring some actual specific examples for once.

          B7…. Bingo!!

        • July 15, 2021 at 9:52 PM #822516
          Anonymous
          Guest

          I have to admin St George doesn’t sound super exciting. Given that type of summertime heat, I would rather live in Tucson area for retirement. Tons of great golf courses, Pac12 University and decent amount of culture and entertainment, good hospitals and large airport right there.

        • July 15, 2021 at 10:25 PM #822517
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          90% white and 70% Mormon. That spells a near complete void of culture. I’d take Tucson over it in a N.Y. Minute

        • July 8, 2021 at 10:20 AM #822406
          Coronita
          Participant

          [quote=svelte][quote=EconProf]
          The population is exploding as new residents come in from everywhere, especially CA. Because St. George schools are largely open, teachers tell of CA parents desperate to get their kids into in-person learning, so some are living in St. George motels in order to do so.
          [/quote]

          This just in.

          https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2021-07-07/is-california-losing-its-luster-uc-san-diego-survey-says-no

          “The exodus of Californians forecast in recent news headlines isn’t likely to happen soon, UC San Diego researchers reported in a survey released Wednesday.”

          “Another facet of the study, conducted by Stanford and Cornell Universities, analyzed two decades of Franchise Tax Board Data and found no evidence that millionaires are fleeing the state, despite increased taxes on high-wage earners.

          A separate analysis from Cornell University gave a different spin to the parable of the Golden State. It showed that California’s share of U.S. venture capital dollars rose from one-third of the national total in 1995 to nearly half by 2021, far eclipsing other large states, including New York, Florida and Texas.”[/quote]

          Low wage workers leaving. High net worth coming in…

          B10….

          BINGO!

        • July 8, 2021 at 11:03 AM #822407
          an
          Participant

          [quote=Coronita]
          Low wage workers leaving. High net worth coming in…

          B10….

          BINGO![/quote]
          I think it’s more of low & mid wage workers leaving. High net worth and homeless coming in.

        • July 9, 2021 at 1:08 PM #822409
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=svelte][quote=EconProf]
          The population is exploding as new residents come in from everywhere, especially CA. Because St. George schools are largely open, teachers tell of CA parents desperate to get their kids into in-person learning, so some are living in St. George motels in order to do so.
          [/quote]

          This just in.

          https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2021-07-07/is-california-losing-its-luster-uc-san-diego-survey-says-no

          “The exodus of Californians forecast in recent news headlines isn’t likely to happen soon, UC San Diego researchers reported in a survey released Wednesday.”

          “Another facet of the study, conducted by Stanford and Cornell Universities, analyzed two decades of Franchise Tax Board Data and found no evidence that millionaires are fleeing the state, despite increased taxes on high-wage earners.

          A separate analysis from Cornell University gave a different spin to the parable of the Golden State. It showed that California’s share of U.S. venture capital dollars rose from one-third of the national total in 1995 to nearly half by 2021, far eclipsing other large states, including New York, Florida and Texas.”[/quote]

          Record amount given to California schools this year, and full statewide funding for TK – TK is amazing, I’ve watched a family member go through it and he really was better prepared for school.

          https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article252680703.html

          Utah ranks 51st in school funding level, dead last. It spends half – half! – the national average per pupil.

          https://www.sltrib.com/news/education/2020/05/12/utah-dead-last-again-per/

          And to sit here and brag about Utah schools is astounding. Just astounding.

    • February 23, 2021 at 6:43 PM #820646
      flyer
      Participant

      Beautiful place, EP–all the best. I’m with you on avoiding high property taxes and mello, which we’ve managed to do. There are lots of beautiful places in the world, and we try to spend time in many of them–but San Diego and rsf will always be home–especially with our families fairly close.

    • February 23, 2021 at 10:34 PM #820648
      spdrun
      Participant

      Hot? You bet. St. George, UT gets positively *glowing* recommendations! Come for the alphas, stay for the gammas … and bring a survey meter along!

      https://old.reddit.com/r/Utah/comments/lngd5s/downwinders_exposed_to_radioactive_fallout/

      Oh, and average high in St. G in high scummer is 102F. Sounds like there’s a reason why it’s cheap. Denying COVID, throwing anyone who’s homeless in jail, and a religious monoculture? More selling points! But, hey, whatever floats your dinghy.

      Given the choice of somewhere rural, I’d probably go to Maine. Just as beautiful, briskly cold in winter, and smart people who don’t try to cram their idea of G-d down your gullet.

      • February 24, 2021 at 4:40 AM #820649
        Coronita
        Participant

        [quote=spdrun]Hot? You bet. St. George, UT gets positively *glowing* recommendations! Come for the alphas, stay for the gammas … and bring a survey meter along!

        https://old.reddit.com/r/Utah/comments/lngd5s/downwinders_exposed_to_radioactive_fallout/

        Oh, and average high in St. G in high scummer is 102F. Sounds like there’s a reason why it’s cheap. Denying COVID, throwing anyone who’s homeless in jail, and a religious monoculture? More selling points! But, hey, whatever floats your dinghy.

        Given the choice of somewhere rural, I’d probably go to Maine. Just as beautiful, briskly cold in winter, and smart people who don’t try to cram their idea of G-d down your gullet.[/quote]

        dude. Is there a reason why you need to be an asshole on this thread?

        Congrats EconProf. Glad you found Zen in your life .

        • February 24, 2021 at 6:41 AM #820650
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          Maine. Ugh. Mosquitoes.

          Utah. Moab. Cleaner.

        • February 24, 2021 at 8:23 AM #820652
          The-Shoveler
          Participant

          Hope it works for you EP, I think you maybe could have gotten about 80% or so of what you are looking for in TV or maybe Fallbrook and been a bit cooler and still driving distance to beach but have fun!

        • February 24, 2021 at 10:55 AM #820656
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=The-Shoveler]Hope it works for you EP, I think you maybe could have gotten about 80% or so of what you are looking for in TV or maybe Fallbrook and been a bit cooler and still driving distance to beach but have fun![/quote]

          Tv has a nice mormon church, lots of mormons. No zion natl park tho.

          Im starting to think the heat in tv and st george Might be a selling point. My joints feel better in the warmth. Id be very creaky in maine or vermont.

          Still, id feel pretty smart selling my house and buying something just as nice for 70% less

        • February 24, 2021 at 11:56 AM #820657
          The-Shoveler
          Participant

          The difference between TV and st George probably is not that much IMO maybe 25% but maybe I am behind the current TV prices, it has grown some.
          No Zion true, but there are beaches to drive to.

        • February 24, 2021 at 10:34 PM #820666
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=scaredyclassic][quote=The-Shoveler]Hope it works for you EP, I think you maybe could have gotten about 80% or so of what you are looking for in TV or maybe Fallbrook and been a bit cooler and still driving distance to beach but have fun![/quote]

          Tv has a nice mormon church, lots of mormons. No zion natl park tho.

          Im starting to think the heat in tv and st george Might be a selling point. My joints feel better in the warmth. Id be very creaky in maine or vermont.

          Still, id feel pretty smart selling my house and buying something just as nice for 70% less[/quote]

          One of my best friends has been in Burlington VT for about 20 years. His oldest graduates HS this year and he cant wait to get the hell out of there and the cold. He’ll be in FLA as soon as possible

        • February 25, 2021 at 11:48 AM #820675
          spdrun
          Participant

          One of my best friends has been in Burlington VT for about 20 years. His oldest graduates HS this year and he cant wait to get the hell out of there and the cold. He’ll be in FLA as soon as possible

          Personally, I’ve been loving the “winter wonderland” that we have had on the East Coast this winter … nothing more beautiful than NY when it’s brisk, snowy, and cold.

        • February 25, 2021 at 12:10 PM #820676
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=spdrun]

          One of my best friends has been in Burlington VT for about 20 years. His oldest graduates HS this year and he cant wait to get the hell out of there and the cold. He’ll be in FLA as soon as possible

          Personally, I’ve been loving the “winter wonderland” that we have had on the East Coast this winter … nothing more beautiful than NY when it’s brisk, snowy, and cold.[/quote]

          Speaking of ice and retirement generally, heres something ive been practicing thats super useful…and really every single person needs to practice…

          Falling down.

          You can start from a squat and fall towatd your face, back and sides, work your way up to full falls from standing.

          Aarp, others have good videos on technique

          Probably best physical training exercise anyone 60 and up can work on! Youre gonna fall! Be ready!

          Im hoping to work up to the just fall forward from standing and land on concrete on hands/forearms move! Looks awesome on videos! Not there yet.

          Imagine how impressed the grandkids would be. You could fall together. Kids could teach us a thing or two. Theyre pros at it.

          Dont end up like dr. Atkins. Remember him? Slipped on ice, nyc. If hed trained to tuck his head in, he might still be with us, eating steaks.

          Id open a falling down gym, but by the time people want the skill its usually too late! Start now. Actually, now thats my new goal. Im gonna work really hard at being awesome at falling.

        • February 25, 2021 at 12:14 PM #820678
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          My mother fell at 68 and broke her femur. Lived to 89 but that fall led to many others and was the beginning of the end for her. Im an expert at falling. Could have been a Hollywood stunt man. Im ready. Let me know if you need instructors for your gym

        • February 25, 2021 at 1:38 PM #820679
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          really, insurance should pay for the class. preventative medicine.

          guy i worked with a long time ago was retired one lousy week when he fell getting out of bed, died a few weeks later. At the time I thought the lesson was, don’t retire, but now I’m thinking the lesson was, practice falling. bonked his head really hard.

        • March 1, 2021 at 7:43 PM #820710
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          Famous Mormon tumbles; regrets not practicing.

          https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/mitt-romney-injured-knocked-unconscious-022434556.html

          This falling down gym could be big, should be big, but people are living in denial. they think they’ll never fall.

          i was at the beach yesterday, falling down over and over again into the sand. I’m sure I looked insane. But who will have the last laugh? eh? who?!

        • February 24, 2021 at 10:24 AM #820654
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=Coronita][quote=spdrun]Hot? You bet. St. George, UT gets positively *glowing* recommendations! Come for the alphas, stay for the gammas … and bring a survey meter along!

          https://old.reddit.com/r/Utah/comments/lngd5s/downwinders_exposed_to_radioactive_fallout/

          Oh, and average high in St. G in high scummer is 102F. Sounds like there’s a reason why it’s cheap. Denying COVID, throwing anyone who’s homeless in jail, and a religious monoculture? More selling points! But, hey, whatever floats your dinghy.

          Given the choice of somewhere rural, I’d probably go to Maine. Just as beautiful, briskly cold in winter, and smart people who don’t try to cram their idea of G-d down your gullet.[/quote]

          dude. Is there a reason why you need to be an asshole on this thread?

          Congrats EconProf. Glad you found Zen in your life .[/quote]

          LETDLITA

          It’s postcard beautiful there

        • February 24, 2021 at 12:05 PM #820658
          an
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor][quote=Coronita][quote=spdrun]Hot? You bet. St. George, UT gets positively *glowing* recommendations! Come for the alphas, stay for the gammas … and bring a survey meter along!

          https://old.reddit.com/r/Utah/comments/lngd5s/downwinders_exposed_to_radioactive_fallout/

          Oh, and average high in St. G in high scummer is 102F. Sounds like there’s a reason why it’s cheap. Denying COVID, throwing anyone who’s homeless in jail, and a religious monoculture? More selling points! But, hey, whatever floats your dinghy.

          Given the choice of somewhere rural, I’d probably go to Maine. Just as beautiful, briskly cold in winter, and smart people who don’t try to cram their idea of G-d down your gullet.[/quote]

          dude. Is there a reason why you need to be an asshole on this thread?

          Congrats EconProf. Glad you found Zen in your life .[/quote]

          LETDLITA

          It’s postcard beautiful there[/quote]LoL

    • February 24, 2021 at 12:17 PM #820659
      Coronita
      Participant

      I’m holding out to be a citizen on Mars…. Then there’s lots of sand…

      • February 24, 2021 at 1:20 PM #820661
        an
        Participant

        [quote=Coronita]I’m holding out to be a citizen on Mars…. Then there’s lots of sand…[/quote]
        I rather live in the Sahara desert before living on Mars… unless they solve teleportation.

        • February 24, 2021 at 1:26 PM #820662
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          Its stressful to uproot and leave a place. Im getting scared just thinking about it.

          So many new senior assisted living places in temecula. I can just decay in place and take an uber to a senior home when necessary.

    • February 24, 2021 at 12:48 PM #820660
      gzz
      Participant

      I don’t understanding the property tax unless schools are funded differently there. You have big Mormon families, but an especially large house is only 3K?

      I like both SLC and Park City, but I felt there were some downsides. SLC had an unpleasant smell everywhere. Maybe you get used to it. And I saw a lot of homeless, not concentrated but wondering around or loitering all over the place in small groups. Park City was beautiful in the off season, but basically as expensive as here.

      Downtown SLC had a ton of urban amenities and was really clean, new, and organized. They also did a good job of keeping it dense but on a walkable human scale. It reminded me a lot of downtown San Jose.

      My top escape to the interior West would be Phoenix. Just as cheap or cheaper as other areas, but with big city amenities. They also got the best water deal, so water is cheaper and more plentiful than NV.

      • February 24, 2021 at 6:09 PM #820663
        EconProf
        Participant

        [quote=gzz]I don’t understanding the property tax unless schools are funded differently there. You have big Mormon families, but an especially large house is only 3K?

        I like both SLC and Park City, but I felt there were some downsides. SLC had an unpleasant smell everywhere. Maybe you get used to it. And I saw a lot of homeless, not concentrated but wondering around or loitering all over the place in small groups. Park City was beautiful in the off season, but basically as expensive as here.

        Downtown SLC had a ton of urban amenities and was really clean, new, and organized. They also did a good job of keeping it dense but on a walkable human scale. It reminded me a lot of downtown San Jose.

        My top escape to the interior West would be Phoenix. Just as cheap or cheaper as other areas, but with big city amenities. They also got the best water deal, so water is cheaper and more plentiful than NV.[/quote]

        gzz: I agree that $3000 property tax looks suspiciously low, so I need confirmation on that. And Salt Lake City did have a surprisingly large number of homeless people. I guess that goes with any big city.

        • February 24, 2021 at 7:37 PM #820664
          EconProf
          Participant

          In case anyone is interested in seeing what their money will buy in St. George, go to lifeatbrio.com. Great scenery of the area too.
          Brio is a development of about 400 homes and is about two-thirds built out. We signed for the house last July at a cost of about $495,000, but added about $50,000 of custom features. The same model is now about $45,000 more expensive now, so nice gain already.
          Confession: We’ll be about two miles from my son, his wife, their four-year old boy and two-year old girl, and we fully intend to spoil them. So it is not my smarts that led me to St. George, but the good instincts of this happy couple.

        • February 24, 2021 at 10:08 PM #820665
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          I approve. I miss my grandpa. He was a really good guy. He moved to be two blocks from me.
          Also that setup at brio looks damn nice. And i like this a lot…

          https://intermountainhealthcare.org/locations/st-george-regional-hospital/hospital-information/

          Financed or cash? What was your reasoning?

        • February 25, 2021 at 11:37 AM #820673
          EconProf
          Participant

          [quote=scaredyclassic]I approve. I miss my grandpa. He was a really good guy. He moved to be two blocks from me.
          Also that setup at brio looks damn nice. And i like this a lot…

          https://intermountainhealthcare.org/locations/st-george-regional-hospital/hospital-information/

          Financed or cash? What was your reasoning?[/quote]

          Loan. At these rates, a no-brainer. Besides, I loan out at 10% + on fix & flips, second TD’s, etc. Will do that in the St. George/Washington City area too. (these two cities are joined at the hip. Technically, we’ll be in Washington City).

        • February 25, 2021 at 12:09 PM #820677
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf][quote=scaredyclassic]I approve. I miss my grandpa. He was a really good guy. He moved to be two blocks from me.
          Also that setup at brio looks damn nice. And i like this a lot…

          https://intermountainhealthcare.org/locations/st-george-regional-hospital/hospital-information/

          Financed or cash? What was your reasoning?[/quote]

          Loan. At these rates, a no-brainer. Besides, I loan out at 10% + on fix & flips, second TD’s, etc. Will do that in the St. George/Washington City area too. (these two cities are joined at the hip. Technically, we’ll be in Washington City).[/quote]

          I figured. Just checking. I thpught maybe just being out of the game, no debt, no plotting for gains might be an option. Perhaps for other more fearful souls…but not econprof!

          Id take the financing too.

        • February 24, 2021 at 10:40 PM #820667
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]In case anyone is interested in seeing what their money will buy in St. George, go to lifeatbrio.com. Great scenery of the area too.
          Brio is a development of about 400 homes and is about two-thirds built out. We signed for the house last July at a cost of about $495,000, but added about $50,000 of custom features. The same model is now about $45,000 more expensive now, so nice gain already.
          Confession: We’ll be about two miles from my son, his wife, their four-year old boy and two-year old girl, and we fully intend to spoil them. So it is not my smarts that led me to St. George, but the good instincts of this happy couple.[/quote]

          Honestly that website doesnt come close to showing how beautiful the area is. I could be very happy playing golf courses like these.

          https://www.google.com/search?q=st+george+utah+golf&sxsrf=ALeKk02lOD5Fzg6XOBnUQaVwe9aOpdR2iA:1614235057181&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiL16qZtoTvAhW0On0KHc6bAxEQ_AUoAnoECBIQBA&biw=1920&bih=880

          One of the biggest issues is as you said everything is new and antional chains. The lack of old family owned restaurants and interesting ethic food would kill me

        • February 25, 2021 at 8:30 AM #820668
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          Wow. The setting is nice enough for a natural course. The green detracts imo.

          I guess id have to make my own thai food when i move across from econprof.

          Theres a seller at the little italy farmers mkt who sells a great tom yum paste.

          Ditch your weed at the border. Looks like 16 oz. Gets 5 years prison. Less is a up to a year in county lockup.

          Personally im sick of intoxication. I think cheap legal weed may be harmful to young people. Too much, too easy to get, too cheap. Not as harmful as 5 y. Prison tho.

          ive had my fill of intoxication and its time to be an old person just glad to wake up every morning. Been over a year without a drink, ever since that retreat at deerpark monastery in escondido. Might be better than rehab.

          St george really is close enough to come back to escondido once in a while. And yelp has some nice eateries listed. Thai, indian peruvian others.

          My grandpa used to give me little boxes of cookies. They dont sell them anymore. Every time i went there my brother and i got a box.. Good to have a thing like that.

          https://www.google.com/search?q=vintage+box+cookies+1960s+chip&oq=vintage+box+cookies+1960s+chip&aqs=chrome..69i57j33i160l2.10511j0j4&client=ms-android-verizon&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#imgdii=Rm_a6nXbD1nnBM&imgrc=uEU1QzqifGrKzM

          These. He really got a lot of pleasure from watching us eat these.

          My mom recently gave me the old chess set we used to play with. So worn. Even has the old spool substitution for the long lost rook i can remember 50 years later. Econprof, u can make a profound impression on those kids.

        • February 25, 2021 at 9:48 AM #820669
          Hobie
          Participant

          [quote=scaredyclassic]Econprof, u can make a profound impression on those kids.[/quote]

          What a respectful, classy thing to say. Nicely done scaredy!

          +1 here.

        • February 25, 2021 at 10:45 AM #820670
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Yes very nice sentiment scaredy.

          As for the golf courses, they are just average. I posted the link to pictures which highlight the scenary around them more than the actual courses. Its visually stunning all over. If I lived there ‘d drive the 10 minute stretch on 15 through the Virgin River Canyon at least once a week. One of my Top 5 drives in America it feels like a videe game.

          The food is a non-starter for me as I go right to my italian food barometer. Looked up top 10 rated italian restos. Five are what look like inadequate pizza places, there isnt a single one Id look forward to eating at, #8 is a steakhouse not an italian restaurtant and #9 is Olive Garden. That sucks.

          And onto appreciation he mentioned, some is nice but not close to CA. I helped my niece pick out a townhouse to buy in Cucamonga back August. We got the best location in the community for her at $415K. Project closed out in january close to $500K for same model in the worst locations. She doesnt close/move in until April or May and will already be around 25% appreciation. Thats CA appreciation for ya.

        • February 25, 2021 at 11:51 AM #820671
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=Hobie][quote=scaredyclassic]Econprof, u can make a profound impression on those kids.[/quote]

          What a respectful, classy thing to say. Nicely done scaredy!

          +1 here.[/quote]

          My folks were so nervous. My grampa was like an ocean of calm. He didnt seem in a hurry for anything. He was just like 100% there. He didnt take us on any trips. He didnt have a car even. We just went to the park. We flew kites, he fed pigeons [ he had kept pigeons on the roof and was astonishingly good with wild pigeons. Maybe they smelled pigeon on him?) . Played a lot of chess. Talked to us. Went for walks. Always fascinated with our bullshit. Dont recall any gifts other than the cookies. Probably a little cash on birthdays.

          It doesnt take much. A little bit can be a lot. If i were lucky, i can be less like me and more like him moving forward. He strikes me now as being in a near perpetual state of mild amusement and astonishment that we were there. That box of cookies seemed so big. I see on the internet it was only about 2 ounces! Funny. I recall getting cokes in candy stores that were only like 6 or 8 ozs.

          Slimmer world.

          My other grandpa died “young”. Like early 60s. Lets definitely avoid that!

          We do this ancestor praise meditation over at the buddhist monastery with head to ground where you give thnx to all your ancestors, who in their confusion and pain and struggle brought the conditions for your existence. I thought that was kind of corny at first, but after a while i didnt.

        • June 24, 2022 at 8:55 PM #826220
          flyer
          Participant

          EP. Agree family is everything. Of all that we have and do, none of it would have been as great had it not been shared by our very close family ties, which we still, and always will have.

          You probably lived the CA lifestyle at level most only dream of longer that most ever will–so you’ve been there–done that. Now you’ve moved on to another lifestyle. Whether others like it or not doesn’t matter. You’re living the life YOU want to live–that’s what matters.

        • June 25, 2022 at 9:56 AM #826222
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=flyer]EP. Agree family is everything. Of all that we have and do, none of it would have been as great had it not been shared by our very close family ties, which we still, and always will have.

          You probably lived the CA lifestyle at level most only dream of longer that most ever will–so you’ve been there–done that. Now you’ve moved on to another lifestyle. Whether others like it or not doesn’t matter. You’re living the life YOU want to live–that’s what matters.[/quote]

          Exactly though it would not surprise me to see him return or go someplace else in a few years if the shine wears off SG

        • February 25, 2021 at 11:49 AM #820674
          spdrun
          Participant

          Personally im sick of intoxication. I think cheap legal weed may be harmful to young people. Too much, too easy to get, too cheap. Not as harmful as 5 y. Prison tho.

          So tax it more. Make people pay for it or put in the work to grow it themselves. Overpaid thugs in uniform throwing people in cages for possession of a plant isn’t a good answer. The cost of sticking people with a criminal record and ruining their opportunities forever is much larger than letting people get intoxicated.

          Also, create a society in which people enjoy living and don’t want to escape from reality via chemical means.

    • February 25, 2021 at 11:33 AM #820672
      gzz
      Participant

      I buy tom yum paste in jars imported from Thailand at the Linda Vista vietnamese supermarket.

      It makes good soup, but can also be added to stir fry.

      It is a miracle product for me, one spoonful gives anything a Thai flavor. It is a mix of chili, lemongrass, ginger, and onion. To make a “tom yum sauce” for something like chicken, take the paste and mix with an equal part lime juice, or to reduce the intense flavor a bit, further mix with tomato paste or heinz chili sauce.

    • February 25, 2021 at 1:52 PM #820681
      The-Shoveler
      Participant

      Falling down practice sounds like a really good Idea.
      My mother broke her hip and was never the same.

      Maybe wearing a light weight bike Helmet 24 hours a day LOL.
      (or at lease when ICE is present)

      • February 25, 2021 at 2:21 PM #820682
        scaredyclassic
        Participant

        good aerobic workout too, falling and getting up over and over. good for the bones, strengthens them from impact. increased confidence can actually reduce risk of future falls.

    • February 25, 2021 at 4:34 PM #820683
      Escoguy
      Participant

      Happy Trails!

      This week I rented out the newest purchase. 4BR for 4K/month.

      Needless to say, strong demand and rented out in one day.

      Made me really want to buy #9 but wife says no. Sad!

      New arrivals are coming here from other parts of California and believe it or not Texas!

      Will be releasing the second 4S property soon. Good interest there too. I think it had 500+ views in first 24 hours. Many of those viewing want to buy and will be happy a few have made this decision. Prices wouldn’t be up if there were a mass exodus. But who knows maybe Newsom will become the next Pharaoh and drive out people to another promised land. 🙂

      • February 25, 2021 at 5:54 PM #820684
        gzz
        Participant

        4k for 4br in esco, WOW!

        My 4/3 in OB has been rented to the same person for 4200 for 5 years. I knew it was a tad below market, but it seems like the cheapest OB 1 bed apartments are now $1700 and cheapest 2 beds are $2400, and there’s a bunch of 2/1 cottages over 3k.

        I feel like rents jumped 10% since i checked last 6 months ago.

        Here’s some recent stats:

        SD prices up 13% in 2020, third best in USA.

        https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2021-02-23/san-diego-home-prices-end-year-up-13-percent

        I can’t find a rental price report published recently. Unfortunately they tend to conflict with each other because they use different sources. Giant complex rents are overrepresented.

        • February 25, 2021 at 10:45 PM #820687
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          There is also a seasonality to rents

        • February 27, 2021 at 7:27 AM #820693
          EconProf
          Participant

          We’ve spent many trips to St. George to get to know it, visit son, etc., so what follows are a lot of items responding to various contributions of readers of this thread.
          Yes, property taxes are really that low (about 1/2 of 1% of house value) since homeowner’s get about half off on their residence. Other property taxed at slightly over 1% of value, so California’s Prop 13 pales in comparison in terms of taxes one actually pays. Since income taxes are about 1/3 those of CA, our tax bite will fall considerably.
          Crime and homelessness is vastly lower. From following the on-line local newspaper, I’ve noticed most crime is from outsiders from Las Vegas, or travelers on I-15, or the low-life repeat offenders common to any city. Local cops are proactive and pull over for minor infractions and discover drugs, intoxication, or suspicious activity and take it from there. Today I read of a guy stopped for throwing a cigarette out the window, so was pulled over, acted suspicious, vehicle searched and he was busted for drug possession with intent to distribute. Was sent to the local jail, which is named, no kidding, Purgatory Correctional Facility.
          Utah is rated the most open-carry state in the nation, so be careful when driving there about cutting off a car with Utah plates (joke). Reciprocality laws permit a Utah resident who carries to do so in most every other state. But not California, naturally. Which must be why CA has so little crime and Utah so much. !!!
          About Mormonism. St.George is about 2/3 Mormon and the influx of people from the rest of the country is rapidly reducing that percentage. Plenty of other church denominations abound. Mormonism is a spectrum, with many dedicated and devout, and many Mormon in name only. But their stress on health (no coffee, smoking or liquor–rules often broken), education, and fitness is a plus. In general, the people are healthier, younger, whiter, and more courteous than I am used to. Politically conservative, so low taxes and clean government, old-fashioned Americanism, all fine with me, but not for everyone.
          Will we miss San Diego weather, cultural amenities, the ocean? Absolutely. But in truth, how often do you go to the beach? The drive and parking make it a one hour chore for us, so is a 2 or 3 per year event. The great quality plays and concerts are also an hour away, while at St. George plays and concerts downtown or at the 8,000 enrollment university are a ten minute drive, albeit not of San Diego quality. Mesquite, Nevada is a scenic 45 minutes away if you want casinos, and Las Vegas another hour on I-15. Ethnic restaurants? All over, and all types. Oh, and they are cheap. Bars? Not many, but growing in number, with two micro-breweries so far.
          All this is making the influx of residents mind-blowing. Any house hitting the market is snapped up immediately. Bidding wars? I’ve been told by one broker that when something new comes on the market the way to get it is not just be pre-qualified, no contingency, full price in your offer, but simply offer more. But maybe that is just broker-talk. I’m hoping to buy troubled houses or condos with all cash, quick close, then fix them up, then get a loan & rent out. Rinse, repeat. Yeah, rents are soaring too.

        • February 27, 2021 at 12:21 PM #820695
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          The market described there is what we have here but even stronger now which you will find if you sell a house here. Much of the country is in this state though SD is particuarly hot. I didnt say no ethnic restaurants, I said no good ethnic restaurants and I’ll stand by that. SD is only starting to achieve success in that regard the last several years. St George never will. Of course, we all like different things and it sounds liek you have been there enough to know. I hope it turns out to be all you hope it will be!

          BTW I think they call the mormons in name only Jack Mormons.

          Off to hit the beach for a nice walk. Some of us do

        • February 28, 2021 at 12:18 PM #820699
          ucodegen
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]Purgatory Correctional Facility[/quote] That gave me a good laugh!! I like the name.. though I would have just called it ‘Purgatory’.. and then the state lockup would be ‘Hell’… ☺

          By the way, Purgatory is in Maine and Hell is in Michigan

        • February 28, 2021 at 2:46 PM #820700
          spdrun
          Participant

          In one of Robert Anton Wilson’s books, the government built a wall and declared the state of Georgia to be Hell. They sent violent convicts there to live or die by their own devices. Basically, “do whatever you want but don’t leave.”

        • March 1, 2021 at 3:03 PM #820709
          EconProf
          Participant

          [quote=ucodegen][quote=EconProf]Purgatory Correctional Facility[/quote] That gave me a good laugh!! I like the name.. though I would have just called it ‘Purgatory’.. and then the state lockup would be ‘Hell’… ☺

          By the way, Purgatory is in Maine and Hell is in Michigan[/quote]

          Interesting you should mention that. I once taught college economics at Leavenworth Federal Penitentiary, while teaching at a nearby university. An interesting experience, to say the least. The guys were in the class partly to collect veteran’s benefits under the GI Bill, to collect upon release. Because Leavenworth is a federal Pen, they had committed federal crimes, such as smuggling, bank robbing, kidnapping, embezzlement, etc. So they weren’t the low-lifes as in local or state facilities. Overall a far more interesting crowd than recent high school graduates, and I enjoyed it.

        • March 2, 2021 at 9:45 AM #820717
          spdrun
          Participant

          Isn’t Leavenworth also a military prison?

        • March 2, 2021 at 6:54 PM #820730
          EconProf
          Participant

          [quote=spdrun]Isn’t Leavenworth also a military prison?[/quote]

          Leavenworth also has a major military base, but that is separate from the Federal Penitentiary I taught at. The base goes back to frontier days and has a storied history. The university I taught at was in St. Joseph, MO, 45 miles away, and where the Pony Express riders started their relay-type trip to Sacramento.
          My students at Leavenworth had a sense of humor. Once, during a lecture, two bells went off, a sound I had never heard before while teaching there. I asked the class what that meant. One guy said “Its a signal to take hostages”. They all laughed, except me.
          A few minutes three bells went off. I asked what that was supposed to mean. “It means to kill the hostages”.

    • February 27, 2021 at 8:10 AM #820694
      scaredyclassic
      Participant

      When i read the book of mormon, it seems, well, absolutely goofy, like a spoofy joke someone wrote for fun. But i have a very very smart and very kind acquaintance who always has a copy, he reads it literally every day. Gets a lot out of it, he says. all religious texts are kind of goofy from the outside. Garden of eden? Really? Silly…

      Except the diamond sutra. That ones just perplexing. Perhaps enlightening.

      Like any shared fake reality– money, the afterlife, americanism– it only works if everyone, or at least the ones you know, are into it.

      • February 27, 2021 at 2:25 PM #820696
        svelte
        Participant

        [quote=scaredyclassic]When i read the book of mormon, it seems, well, absolutely goofy, like a spoofy joke someone wrote for fun. But i have a very very smart and very kind acquaintance who always has a copy, he reads it literally every day. Gets a lot out of it, he says. all religious texts are kind of goofy from the outside. Garden of eden? Really? Silly…

        Except the diamond sutra. That ones just perplexing. Perhaps enlightening.

        Like any shared fake reality– money, the afterlife, americanism– it only works if everyone, or at least the ones you know, are into it.[/quote]

        God is just a Santa Clause for adults. The E is intentional.

    • February 28, 2021 at 6:46 PM #820701
      Myriad
      Participant

      St. George seems like an interesting place to visit and maybe invest in RE. WSJ just had a article that discussed this.
      Just not the place for me – too isolated for air travel and not enough ethnic food (SD is bad enough for Chinese food).
      I’ve traveled all over and lived in CA, NY, CO, and HI.

      I read the marketwatch “where to retire” and basically it’s geared to more non-minority readers.
      I mean I could “live” in a lot a places for work, but in retirement, SD is a good trade.

    • March 1, 2021 at 3:53 AM #820702
      spdrun
      Participant

      MarketWatch and similar are geared towards people who want low taxes over good healthcare, don’t care about “culture”, and want a hot climate. Not everyone (not even white people) want those things.

      • March 1, 2021 at 11:01 AM #820704
        scaredyclassic
        Participant

        Probably the where matters a lot less than the in what shape and with what mindset and problems question.

        Anywhere is great or awful, depending.

        Also, eating out is too many calories anyway.

        St george, san diego, indiana. One can meditate and practice hackysack technique anywhere.

        On the other hand, maybe a really crappy setting could be bad. Still, id value top 1% mental and physical condition over top 1% location by a wide margin.

        I once had a job helping [very little help] an old woman in a very expensive nyc apt for a free room and food. I lasted 3 days. I didnt even quit. Just left a note, I just ran out. The vibe was horrible. She radiated unhappiness. She definitely had a cool pad, seemed loaded, had physical health, pretty much. I feel a little bad about it, now, but it was too much for me at that time… she made me want to die.

        Now id probably relate to her

        • March 1, 2021 at 12:14 PM #820705
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          You are the very definition of an outlier

      • March 1, 2021 at 1:52 PM #820707
        an
        Participant

        [quote=spdrun]MarketWatch and similar are geared towards people who want low taxes over good healthcare, don’t care about “culture”, and want a hot climate. Not everyone (not even white people) want those things.[/quote]
        Healthcare or health insurance? 2 totally different thing.

    • March 1, 2021 at 1:45 PM #820706
      scaredyclassic
      Participant

      the primary things on my retirement to do list are largely location independent.

      increased meditation time to 60 min per day.
      read 120 min. per day.
      nap, 120 min per day.
      120 min, hard exercise/yardwork.
      sleep, 8 h per day.
      play with cat; 30 min.
      tea. 30 min.
      dental hygiene, 30 min per day
      30 min, strength training.
      clean up. 60 min per day.

      that’s 18 hours. let’s see. p/t job, maybe 3 h? hackysack; 30 min? yoga; 30 min. up to 22 hours. jeez. still need time to poop.

      pretty full and awesome day. Not even sure where I was. maybe i need to slow down though. pretty hectic. need time for movies, and rose-smelling.

    • March 1, 2021 at 2:52 PM #820708
      EconProf
      Participant

      Sorry, the above was meant to respond to previous comment about Purgatory Correctional Facility.

    • March 2, 2021 at 3:05 PM #820726
      The-Shoveler
      Participant

      I would submit that IMO exactly zero politicians would do anything that could lower the tax base (such as low cost housing in mass).

      They talk a good game but it will only go through if it does not lower rents or home values.

      And if they ever do they would be recalled immediately.

      • March 2, 2021 at 3:53 PM #820727
        phaster
        Participant

        [quote=The-Shoveler]I would submit that IMO exactly zero politicians would do anything that could lower the tax base (such as low cost housing in mass).

        They talk a good game but it will only go through if it does not lower rents or home values.

        And if they ever do they would be recalled immediately.[/quote]

        …Recall Jen Campbell???

        https://www.piggington.com/node/27310

        [quote]
        San Diego leaders propose vacancy tax, community land trusts for housing crisis

        Democrat-dominated City Council explores bold ideas after years focused on incentives, streamlined regulations

        By DAVID GARRICK
        FEB. 8, 2021 6 AM PT

        SAN DIEGO — San Diego’s new Democrat-dominated City Council is proposing several bold ideas to tackle the city’s affordable housing crisis, including creating community land trusts, a rent registry, vacancy taxes and forcing landlords to rent to people with pets.

        City officials have routinely listed the housing crisis as a top priority, but most of the legislation they have passed in recent years has focused on streamlining existing regulations and creating new incentives for housing developers.

        The exceptions are two efforts spearheaded by former City Council President Georgette Gómez to preserve existing low-income units and strengthen the city’s “inclusionary” law so developers must build more low-income units.

        Now the City Council, with an 8-1 Democratic majority and five new members, is proposing that San Diego begin exploring more aggressive ideas.

        They say solving the housing crisis has become more important with the city’s greater focus on social equity. Minorities are the most impacted by scarce housing, they say.

        Council members Vivian Moreno, Dr. Jennifer Campbell and Raul Campillo said they want the city to study a possible vacancy tax, which would tax the owners of undeveloped lots and landlords who have empty units.

        http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2021-02-08/san-diego-leaders-propose-vacancy-tax-community-land-trusts-for-housing-crisis

        Should San Diego establish some type of vacancy tax?

        Some San Diego City Council members [i.e. JEN CAMPBELL] are considering a variety of progressive proposals aimed at cutting housing costs, including an additional tax on owners of empty lots or landlords with unoccupied units.

        The idea is money from the tax could be used to fund construction for subsidized housing and encourage landowners to build new housing or sell to someone who will.

        http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2021-02-19/should-san-diego-establish-some-type-of-vacancy-tax
        [/quote]

        • March 2, 2021 at 4:28 PM #820728
          The-Shoveler
          Participant

          Yea probably LOL,

          The only thing these would do if enacted (talking is one thing doing is another) is cause a mass exit of Mom&Pop landlords from the game, and big corporate landlords to jack up prices even further.

        • March 2, 2021 at 4:50 PM #820729
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          hanging out in east village, it looks like a huge percentage of the high rise condos are unoccupied. not sure if those statistics are anywhere? they just look…empty…

    • March 27, 2021 at 5:15 PM #820905
      EconProf
      Participant

      We just got back from our “walk-through” of the new house and will move in this Friday. Brio is one of many developments this company has done, and they are pros. 400 or so well-designed houses and condos, nearby clubhouse, pools, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, etc. two blocks away. Our 2700 SF single-level has views of snow-capped mountains. Glad we locked in the price last July at approximately $550,000, because the same model is now $57,000 higher.
      Talking to the sales manager at Brio and various realtors in town reveals how hot this market is.
      New listings are gobbled up in a week and bidding wars are the norm. All the contractors are super busy, and it takes a year to get a house built. One result is that developers of communities no longer quote a fixed price–they realize that waiting until the house is built costs them too much in lost appreciation. Plus they can get hurt by the rising labor and materials costs (lumber has doubled). So they have to build spec homes and then put them on the market, meaning buyers no longer get to chose their colors, options, cabinets, etc., as we did.
      Growth in nearby Cedar City (50 minutes up I-15), and Hurricane (20 minutes away) is nearly as frantic as St. George).
      So the population is booming, and it is all from an influx of buyers, mainly from California.
      Gosh, I wonder why.

      • March 27, 2021 at 5:38 PM #820906
        Coronita
        Participant

        [quote=EconProf]We just got back from our “walk-through” of the new house and will move in this Friday. Brio is one of many developments this company has done, and they are pros. 400 or so well-designed houses and condos, nearby clubhouse, pools, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, etc. two blocks away. Our 2700 SF single-level has views of snow-capped mountains. Glad we locked in the price last July at approximately $550,000, because the same model is now $57,000 higher.
        Talking to the sales manager at Brio and various realtors in town reveals how hot this market is.
        New listings are gobbled up in a week and bidding wars are the norm. All the contractors are super busy, and it takes a year to get a house built. One result is that developers of communities no longer quote a fixed price–they realize that waiting until the house is built costs them too much in lost appreciation. Plus they can get hurt by the rising labor and materials costs (lumber has doubled). So they have to build spec homes and then put them on the market, meaning buyers no longer get to chose their colors, options, cabinets, etc., as we did.
        Growth in nearby Cedar City (50 minutes up I-15), and Hurricane (20 minutes away) is nearly as frantic as St. George).
        So the population is booming, and it is all from an influx of buyers, mainly from California.
        Gosh, I wonder why.[/quote]

        I dont know. The market looks pretty hot here in SD too.

      • March 27, 2021 at 10:35 PM #820908
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        [quote=EconProf]We just got back from our “walk-through” of the new house and will move in this Friday. Brio is one of many developments this company has done, and they are pros. 400 or so well-designed houses and condos, nearby clubhouse, pools, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, etc. two blocks away. Our 2700 SF single-level has views of snow-capped mountains. Glad we locked in the price last July at approximately $550,000, because the same model is now $57,000 higher.
        Talking to the sales manager at Brio and various realtors in town reveals how hot this market is.
        New listings are gobbled up in a week and bidding wars are the norm. All the contractors are super busy, and it takes a year to get a house built. One result is that developers of communities no longer quote a fixed price–they realize that waiting until the house is built costs them too much in lost appreciation. Plus they can get hurt by the rising labor and materials costs (lumber has doubled). So they have to build spec homes and then put them on the market, meaning buyers no longer get to chose their colors, options, cabinets, etc., as we did.
        Growth in nearby Cedar City (50 minutes up I-15), and Hurricane (20 minutes away) is nearly as frantic as St. George).
        So the population is booming, and it is all from an influx of buyers, mainly from California.
        Gosh, I wonder why.[/quote]

        People cashing out. I have two neighbors about to. Nothing to buy in red hot CA so they limp out of state to find something else

        • March 29, 2021 at 2:07 PM #820922
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]
          People cashing out. I have two neighbors about to. Nothing to buy in red hot CA so they limp out of state to find something else[/quote]

          Sales are strong throughout California that is true.

          But as long as you get away from the major cities, prices are reasonable. Monday, my son put in an offer that was accepted for a 1500+ SF home in the Sierra Nevada foothills. He is getting it for $400K. House was on market 7 days and he was one of four offers.

          And here is what I don’t understand…I keep hearing people say that CA is losing population, yet housing prices are still heading up. Somehow that does not equate.

        • March 29, 2021 at 3:40 PM #820924
          The-Shoveler
          Participant

          IMO People are trying to get ahead of the proposed $15,000 tax credit.

          IMO if you think the market is on fire now just wait LOL.

          (at least for first time starter homes.)

          But would agree as well just need to get away from coastal big cities, then prices are not much different than moving out of state in the middle of nowhere.

    • March 27, 2021 at 7:33 PM #820907
      spdrun
      Participant

      You ran all the way to Utah to live in a “planned community” with an HOA who’ll want to control how to live?

      • March 28, 2021 at 11:01 AM #820911
        Coronita
        Participant

        [quote=spdrun]You ran all the way to Utah to live in a “planned community” with an HOA who’ll want to control how to live?[/quote]

        Is that what a co-op is in NYC?

        • March 28, 2021 at 11:25 AM #820912
          spdrun
          Participant

          ^^^

          Sure, but if I moved to Utah or Nevada, I’d look for a few acres out in the desert where I could do whatever the hell I wanted. Weld and build stuff at midnight, test motorcycle engines at 3 am, raise chickens, put up solar panels, hang laundry in the yard, etc. Isn’t that the charm of living in a sparsely-populated state?

          Also, HOAs make sense in structures where units share walls. They’re overkill in single-home communities. Why would I need someone to tell me what color my door should be painted or what age my car is allowed to be? I can decide that myself.

    • March 28, 2021 at 11:54 AM #820913
      Coronita
      Participant

      Ok. If you say so…

      • March 29, 2021 at 5:29 AM #820914
        EconProf
        Participant

        A bit of history about San Diego from this geeser. When we first moved here so I could teach at SDSU, 45 years ago, CA was the land of opportunity–the Golden State. Pete Wilson was the San Diego mayor, later CA senator. CA was Reagan country and the government was efficient, taxes were reasonable, and politics were competitive. A 3 Br, 2 Ba house in the suburb of El Cajon averaged $45,000 in price, the same as the national average. Now the left owns the state, government unions control K-12, the universities, and virtually all city, county, and state offices. Our high taxes, draconian regulations, skyrocketing utility bills are what make CA houses cost three times what the same house will cost in Utah, AZ, Texas, etc. Which explains why CA population is actually shrinking of late in absolute terms. Yes, we have our great weather, the ocean, and hip culture. But the trends are ominous, and the future is dire compared to that of our neighboring states.

        • March 29, 2021 at 8:54 AM #820915
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Numbers seem off. Village Park homes in Encinitas were in the 20’s when built in the 70s. Those are now in the low 1m’s. Past client bought oceanfront house in Carlsbad in mid 70s for around 80k and it’s worth 6-8m today. If your numbers aren’t off you made very poor investments

        • March 29, 2021 at 11:04 AM #820916
          EconProf
          Participant

          Actually I made quite a lot on houses, apartments, and commercial properties, to the point where landlording income dwarfed teaching income.
          I mentioned El Cajon because that was a typical blue-collar suburb then. As you must know, coastal properties in San Diego have appreciated much faster over the decades than inland.

        • March 29, 2021 at 1:30 PM #820920
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]Actually I made quite a lot on houses, apartments, and commercial properties, to the point where landlording income dwarfed teaching income.
          I mentioned El Cajon because that was a typical blue-collar suburb then. As you must know, coastal properties in San Diego have appreciated much faster over the decades than inland.[/quote]

          Great work! Anyone that invested 45 years ago made a killing. Its just the numbers you posted dont look great relative to most Ive seen. Either way simply buying and holding that long makes you look very astute

        • March 29, 2021 at 6:31 PM #820926
          flyer
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor][quote=EconProf]Actually I made quite a lot on houses, apartments, and commercial properties, to the point where landlording income dwarfed teaching income.
          I mentioned El Cajon because that was a typical blue-collar suburb then. As you must know, coastal properties in San Diego have appreciated much faster over the decades than inland.[/quote]

          Great work! Anyone that invested 45 years ago made a killing. Its just the numbers you posted dont look great relative to most Ive seen. Either way simply buying and holding that long makes you look very astute[/quote]

          Great on all of the real estate wins–EP–enjoy your new life! Looks like a beautiful spot, and with close family ties–it should be fantastic!

        • March 30, 2021 at 9:12 AM #820927
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          What does our actual day consist of, v. What do we fantasize our actual days might consist of.

          For an actual day your place looks awesome

        • March 29, 2021 at 12:09 PM #820917
          flyer
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]A bit of history about San Diego from this geeser. When we first moved here so I could teach at SDSU, 45 years ago, CA was the land of opportunity–the Golden State. Pete Wilson was the San Diego mayor, later CA senator. CA was Reagan country and the government was efficient, taxes were reasonable, and politics were competitive. A 3 Br, 2 Ba house in the suburb of El Cajon averaged $45,000 in price, the same as the national average. Now the left owns the state, government unions control K-12, the universities, and virtually all city, county, and state offices. Our high taxes, draconian regulations, skyrocketing utility bills are what make CA houses cost three times what the same house will cost in Utah, AZ, Texas, etc. Which explains why CA population is actually shrinking of late in absolute terms. Yes, we have our great weather, the ocean, and hip culture. But the trends are ominous, and the future is dire compared to that of our neighboring states.[/quote]

          We’ve seen our investment and personal properties, especially coastal, skyrocket since we started investing many years ago, but I think you speak for a great number of people who are finding the current state of CA challenging in many ways, so moving elsewhere makes sense.

          I’ve spoken to many people who have no idea of how their kids will ever be able to buy a home in CA, let alone save for retirement. Of course, there will always be those who continue to live beyond their means in order to stay in CA, and that will not bode well long-term. The bottom line is everyone has to do what’s best for them, and enjoy the short time we all have on earth.

        • March 29, 2021 at 1:08 PM #820918
          Coronita
          Participant

          [quote=flyer]
          We’ve seen our investment and personal properties, especially coastal, skyrocket since we started investing many years ago, but I think you speak for a great number of people who are finding the current state of CA challenging in many ways, so moving elsewhere makes sense.
          [/quote]

          Nobody gives a shit how much money you inherited. That’s what’s great about this country. Everyone the same. Everyone ends up in the ground the same way…

          Truly wealthy people don’t waste their time mentioning how much money they have every opening sentence on a blog..because they have nothing to prove and don’t have insecurity issues from being excluded from an elite member of the wealthy club. it’s usually all the B and C players that do.

        • April 17, 2021 at 2:07 PM #821105
          barnaby33
          Participant

          Wait if you moved here 45 years ago to teach that means you’re in your 70s at least. Ominous trends? How long are you planning to live? California has severe issues none of which you mentioned, but man you are engaging in sophistry to a T.
          Josh

        • April 18, 2021 at 9:27 AM #821106
          EconProf
          Participant

          Barnaby, your math is correct, I am in my 70’s.
          Ominous trends? Please explain how that is relevant.
          Sophistry: “The use of fallacious arguments, especially with the intention of deceiving” according to google. Please explain, and as I used to tell my students, be specific. Show your work…

        • April 19, 2021 at 9:34 AM #821115
          barnaby33
          Participant

          As to ominous trends, I was referencing you:

          Yes, we have our great weather, the ocean, and hip culture. But the trends are ominous, and the future is dire compared to that of our neighboring states.

          Pure unadulterated unsupported sophistry.

          Sophistry, something which could be true, but is false. Also my favorite GRE word! Never made it through grad school but did love learning that word for the GRE.

          Now back to ominous, another cherished GRE word. The whole world is suffering ominous trends. Overpopulation, resource limits and our concerted attempts to do nothing about them are the issue. Also on an economic front the bifuraction of our economy into winner take all tech and everything else with low margins is a real issue. California relatively is in a great position. It still has rich soil, a good (again relatively) education system and attracts the best and brightest in droves. What we haven’t figured out how to do is share that equitably with those who aren’t best, brightest or both, without turning into a full on socialist fantasyland. If you want to leave, by all means do. Utah is physically GORGEOUS. It is however intellectually speaking the 8th level of hell. It attracts refugees from rich places like CA. Folks who extracted their wealth from CA and are then reviled for ruining it (aka driving up prices) for, “average folks.” Plus it doesn’t have much water, or industry; I realize that’s not important if you’re retiring. Whatever ominous trends exist here, Utah and satellite states will always suffer it worse. When the Colorado river water finally gives out, California will get the majority of it, why? Because it’s where the people, the intellect and the industrial capacity are.

          At a more personal and fundamental level flyer is right you don’t have to justify yourself to me or anyone else. I have to say however this thread, given what little I know about you just screams scared old white person running from a changing world and thats sad. You are or were a professor and that implies (one would hope) a thinker. To uproot yourself from the life you have known for 45 years because you don’t like change just seems sad. This thread would have been much more positive if it’d started out with, we’re leaving to go to X,Y,Z, not running from A,B,Change….
          Josh

        • April 19, 2021 at 9:52 AM #821116
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Josh it’s just the standard I’m leaving CA for my own personal reasons but hey it’s an opportunity to throw the state under the bus for the things that have always annoyed me. It’s like the annual articles by the mass media that people and businesses are leaving CA in droves. I laugh everytime I read them

        • April 19, 2021 at 1:16 PM #821120
          Anonymous
          Guest

          [quote=sdrealtor]Josh it’s just the standard I’m leaving CA for my own personal reasons but hey it’s an opportunity to throw the state under the bus for the things that have always annoyed me. It’s like the annual articles by the mass media that people and businesses are leaving CA in droves. I laugh everytime I read them[/quote]

          Not sure why you laugh at that, it is fact that many businesses are leaving California due to various anti-business liberal policies from high taxes to ridiculous requirements such as public companies having to have certain % of board members from minority and women.

          But in spite of businesses and individuals leaving, housing costs keep skyrocketing. So the point is his claim that these liberal politics are responsible for the high housing costs is total BS.

        • April 19, 2021 at 1:29 PM #821121
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          I laugh because virtually the same article gets written every year. Yes some companies leave but just as many start and/or grow to the point of being a big time success. There are assets and infrastructure that exist in CA that dont elsewhere. The premature demise of CA is often reported on but we just keep chugging along here. The door is plainly visible for anyone that would like to walk through it just dont expect to be able to return to the same lifestyle

        • April 19, 2021 at 1:35 PM #821122
          gzz
          Participant

          California’s major market housing prices are not especially high compared to other high income and high amenity urban areas with low crime and strong investor protections. Check out prices in Sydney and Tel Aviv as two wealthy places with mild weather plus safe and stable.

          You can also look at Seattle, but your might find your home is suddenly with a “CHOP” mob ruled area for a month.

          Prices do seem a bit high in our lower income inland cities like Fresno compared to similar places elsewhere in the sunbelt. That may be a Prop 13 artifact.

        • April 19, 2021 at 7:42 PM #821123
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=gzz]
          Prices do seem a bit high in our lower income inland cities like Fresno compared to similar places elsewhere in the sunbelt. That may be a Prop 13 artifact.[/quote]

          Fresno population: 525K
          Omaha, NE population: 475K

          Fresno average home price: $290K (per Zillow)
          Omaha average home price: $221K (per Zillow)

          Maybe slightly higher, but not outrageously higher.

        • April 20, 2021 at 6:02 AM #821124
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=barnaby33]As to ominous trends, I was referencing you:

          Yes, we have our great weather, the ocean, and hip culture. But the trends are ominous, and the future is dire compared to that of our neighboring states.

          Pure unadulterated unsupported sophistry.

          Sophistry, something which could be true, but is false. Also my favorite GRE word! Never made it through grad school but did love learning that word for the GRE.

          Now back to ominous, another cherished GRE word. The whole world is suffering ominous trends. Overpopulation, resource limits and our concerted attempts to do nothing about them are the issue. Also on an economic front the bifuraction of our economy into winner take all tech and everything else with low margins is a real issue. California relatively is in a great position. It still has rich soil, a good (again relatively) education system and attracts the best and brightest in droves. What we haven’t figured out how to do is share that equitably with those who aren’t best, brightest or both, without turning into a full on socialist fantasyland. If you want to leave, by all means do. Utah is physically GORGEOUS. It is however intellectually speaking the 8th level of hell. It attracts refugees from rich places like CA. Folks who extracted their wealth from CA and are then reviled for ruining it (aka driving up prices) for, “average folks.” Plus it doesn’t have much water, or industry; I realize that’s not important if you’re retiring. Whatever ominous trends exist here, Utah and satellite states will always suffer it worse. When the Colorado river water finally gives out, California will get the majority of it, why? Because it’s where the people, the intellect and the industrial capacity are.

          At a more personal and fundamental level flyer is right you don’t have to justify yourself to me or anyone else. I have to say however this thread, given what little I know about you just screams scared old white person running from a changing world and thats sad. You are or were a professor and that implies (one would hope) a thinker. To uproot yourself from the life you have known for 45 years because you don’t like change just seems sad. This thread would have been much more positive if it’d started out with, we’re leaving to go to X,Y,Z, not running from A,B,Change….
          Josh[/quote]

          Although the world trends are ominous, i think it should be a non issue if yourein your 70s, be dead before it gets ugly.

          It is funny, a guy works for the ca govt, sucks the state teat of State U for half a century, extracts massive wealth and takes off to save a few bucks cuz taxes n shit.

          Its ron swanson from parks and rec. The anti gov gov worker.

        • April 20, 2021 at 7:10 AM #821125
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=scaredyclassic]
          It is funny, a guy works for the ca govt, sucks the state teat of State U for half a century, extracts massive wealth and takes off to save a few bucks cuz taxes n shit.

          Its ron swanson from parks and rec. The anti gov gov worker.[/quote]

          Lol. My dad was the same way. There was an uncle-in-law(is that a thing?) of mine that my dad hated. He said he had a weak moral compass because he didn’t believe in his employer (my uncle lived in a house when he was a mobile home salesman, then moved to a trailer when he became a realtor).

          My Dad would complain at great length at how bad the federal government was and the inefficiencies he saw in the Air Force. Yet when he retired after 20 years in the Air Force, he went right back and joined the Civil Service for 20 more years. I never did point out to him that his actions didn’t match his words, and how he seemed to have similar actions to my uncle.

        • April 20, 2021 at 6:02 PM #821131
          flyer
          Participant

          I agree that being concerned about finances, especially when you have more money than you’ll ever need for yourself and your family, ad infinitum, isn’t necessary.

          EP has enjoyed wealth for many years, and is now fortunate enough to be living to an advanced age–which many won’t,(mortality rates in the US from various causes are rising among many age groups–especially 25-64 from what I’ve read) so he is free to enjoy life wherever he chooses!

        • April 18, 2021 at 11:03 AM #821108
          Anonymous
          Guest

          [quote=EconProf]A bit of history about San Diego from this geeser. When we first moved here so I could teach at SDSU, 45 years ago, CA was the land of opportunity–the Golden State. Pete Wilson was the San Diego mayor, later CA senator. CA was Reagan country and the government was efficient, taxes were reasonable, and politics were competitive. A 3 Br, 2 Ba house in the suburb of El Cajon averaged $45,000 in price, the same as the national average. Now the left owns the state, government unions control K-12, the universities, and virtually all city, county, and state offices. Our high taxes, draconian regulations, skyrocketing utility bills are what make CA houses cost three times what the same house will cost in Utah, AZ, Texas, etc. Which explains why CA population is actually shrinking of late in absolute terms. Yes, we have our great weather, the ocean, and hip culture. But the trends are ominous, and the future is dire compared to that of our neighboring states.[/quote]

          Obviously the high cost of living, and specifically housing costs, is the main reason to leave California. But you are delusional if you think Politics, or specifically California left wing politics and taxes, are the major reason for high housing prices. I hear this argument all the time by typical Redneck types who like to use the tired “Commifornia” cliche. But the fact is, not nearly enough of you guys are leaving because overall population and housing costs keep going up (due to other reasons that apparently are too complicated for the Fox news set to understand).

        • April 18, 2021 at 2:55 PM #821109
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]A bit of history about San Diego from this geeser. When we first moved here so I could teach at SDSU, 45 years ago, CA was the land of opportunity–the Golden State. Pete Wilson was the San Diego mayor, later CA senator. CA was Reagan country and the government was efficient, taxes were reasonable, and politics were competitive. A 3 Br, 2 Ba house in the suburb of El Cajon averaged $45,000 in price, the same as the national average. [/quote]

          If you moved here 45 years ago, that would have been 1976.

          My father was an ultra-Republican who could not stand Democrats. In 1970, he moved us from the Midwest to northern California, in the central valley. He bought a 3/2 1500 SF house there for $21K. He became angrier and angrier at California politics and what he perceived as a poor school system, and kept talking about moving us back to the midwest (I was a teen in the 1970s).

          In 1975, he did move my family back to the Midwest – to Oklahoma where he grew up. He sold the house in Northern California for about $25-26K I can’t remember that number exactly. OK is an ultra-Republican state and was ultra-Republican in the 1970s also.

          Having attended both CA and OK schools, I can tell you I didn’t see much of a difference. Pretty similar to me.

          By 1978, my Dad had had enough of Oklahoma. It wasn’t as good as he remembered and after just three years he moved the family back to the central valley in northern California, about 10 miles from where we had lived before. He lived out the rest of his life in that area and while he still grumbled about CA politics, he never even considered leaving CA again.

          I just now checked: that house he bought in 1970 for $21K? Zillow says it is worth about $295K right now.

          I guess what I’m saying is that making sweeping generalizations about California really doesn’t work. The central valley was Republican in the 1970s and is still Republican today. Housing prices haven’t went up nearly as much as the coast. In fact, they are right in line with the Midwest.

          What you think of as ultra Liberal CA is really just the coast. When you go inland, CA is very Republican and not out of line with housing costs in the Midwest.

          So you really didn’t have to move to Utah to get the lower costs and Republican neighbors. You could have stayed in CA. You chose the location mainly due to its proximity to your family – which is a very valid reason.

        • April 18, 2021 at 5:55 PM #821110
          o2addict
          Participant

          Agree with Josh. More importantly, I can’t friggin’ wait to use sophistry in a sentence. Had to look it up. I like it.

        • April 19, 2021 at 11:14 AM #821117
          zk
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf] Our high taxes, draconian regulations, skyrocketing utility bills are what make CA houses cost three times what the same house will cost in Utah, AZ, Texas, etc. [/quote]

          Any 7th grader taking an economics class should be embarrassed to make such a ridiculous claim. You can’t seriously be an economics professor. If you really are an econ prof, and you taught any of that nonsense to your students, I feel very sorry for them that they had you for a professor.

    • March 29, 2021 at 1:53 PM #820921
      gzz
      Participant

      The top appreciation came for areas that gentrified, not necessarily on the coast.

      That’s a mix of coastal areas (OB, South PB, Encinitas) and inland areas (Hillcrest, East Village, and North Park).

      • March 29, 2021 at 3:14 PM #820923
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        [quote=gzz]The top appreciation came for areas that gentrified, not necessarily on the coast.

        That’s a mix of coastal areas (OB, South PB, Encinitas) and inland areas (Hillcrest, East Village, and North Park).[/quote]

        Carmel Valley, Carlsbad and Rancho Bernardo disagree

        • April 1, 2021 at 1:17 PM #820939
          gzz
          Participant

          >Carmel Valley, Carlsbad and Rancho Bernardo disagree

          I rather doubt that. CV was fairly recent and expensive when developed. It did great, but didn’t get that extra gentrification boost. Those areas likely outperformed inner areas during the past year’s Run For the Burbs, but not over 20-30 years.

        • April 1, 2021 at 8:29 PM #820941
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Sorry, Ive run the numbers before

        • April 2, 2021 at 2:09 PM #820944
          gzz
          Participant

          Here’s a thought experiment. Take a place in north park and Carmel Valley that are both worth $1.5 million right now.

          Now think about what they would have cost in 1997.

          Are you saying the NP property would have been more expensive than the CV property? Because that’s the implication of saying CV appreciated more than NP.

          Here’s an example of what I am mean. A CV place that was $350k in 1997, now $1.1m though maybe it will go for more like 1.25.

          https://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-NDP2103325-4885-Almondwood-Way-San-Diego-CA-92130

          In gentrified areas, some similar places that are now worth $1.1+ would have been more like 100-250k back then.

        • April 2, 2021 at 4:19 PM #820945
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Horrible example. That is a house in poor condition and lousy location listed too low. Houses like that which were 350ish in 1997 and now in decent condition are 1.6 ish today maybe more. Stick to what you know

        • April 2, 2021 at 4:34 PM #820946
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Better example. This house twenty years ago around 400k is a completely different and re built home now.

          https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/2636-33rd-St-92104/home/5392032?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

          A house in CV was nearly’ new twenty years ago and substantially the same today

          Here’s one in Encintas from twenty years ago and substantially the same house today. No gentrification here, I live nearby and it’s substantially the same neighborhood as it was then

          https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/1804-Cottage-Grove-Dr-92024/home/4098580?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

        • April 19, 2021 at 11:08 AM #821118
          gzz
          Participant

          >Stick to what you know

          I have seen the data and do know. I picked a random example, and you say that’s a bad example and mispriced. But it would be easy for you to show me contrary examples.

          Low end areas went up more than high end areas, that’s the case in both the current and prior bull markets as well as the very long term trend.

          Areas that started medium-low and gentrified went up the most.

          Sorry, the gentrified areas that used to have high crime and now are high end went up more than suburban areas that were always nice. That’s the case here, as well as LA and the Bay Area.

    • April 18, 2021 at 10:49 PM #821111
      flyer
      Participant

      EP, with your net worth, which, I’m sure is far, far, far greater than that of most Californians–regardless of age– you can easily choose to live wherever you wish–including anywhere in CA–but if you choose to go, for whatever reason(s), enjoy your wealth and your new life, with no justification necessary.

      • April 19, 2021 at 4:40 AM #821112
        scaredyclassic
        Participant

        Its irritating beyond measure to be around a flock of trump supporters, like, i want to vomit, put distance between us, so if liberals make you feel like that, or even 50% of how irritated trumplovers make me feel, its best to separate from that type of idiocy and surround yourself with likeminded republicans who seem to still be trumploving americans.

    • April 19, 2021 at 7:43 AM #821113
      The-Shoveler
      Participant

      Actually California has for been a Red state probably longer than a blue state, and has switched back and forth since I have been here.
      Probably will again someday.

      • April 19, 2021 at 9:23 AM #821114
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        One thing that always amazes me is how many who leave for financial reasons be it they can’t afford it here anymore or want a lower cost of living always seem to trash CA for some other reason. Just take it and like it!

    • April 20, 2021 at 7:22 PM #821134
      Coronita
      Participant

      I think some of you folks with money should spend less time blogging about how much money you have to overcome whatever insecurity issues you might have wrto your peers (who may/may not have more money than you)… and spend more time spending it and actually enjoying it versus attempting to fish for self validation on an internet blog that you are financially better off than some people…financilly better off, maybe. Happier, most likely not..aimless, pointless, vacuous, meaningless life, to have no purpose of said wealth…taken to the grave…

      • April 21, 2021 at 10:07 AM #821140
        EconProf
        Participant

        Thanks to all for the feedback, both positive and negative.
        We’ve now lived here for three weeks, and it is exceeding our high expectations.
        Regarding California’s population—it is declining in absolute terms. If you believe otherwise, your information is old. Census comes out with annual estimates in the first quarter of the year, and then as more data comes in gives us a revised member in July. The very latest figures show a decline.
        This is in marked contrast to California’s reputation as a destination, and for decades that reputation was deserved. But the rate of growth has declined for about five years and the latest revision shows an absolute decline.

        I call this an “ominous trend”. Piggs are free to speculate on the causes, but I believe the Census figures and expect them to accelerate in the years ahead.

        • April 21, 2021 at 10:50 AM #821141
          an
          Participant

          A single population change number doesn’t mean much. Would be nice to know more detailed data on median and average household income of who’s moving out vs who’s moving in. Would be nice to remove people under 18 as well, since they’re not really contributing to society yet. Would also be nice to know which cities their influx migrations are moving to and more specifically, relating to housing, what are their housing preference (condo vs SFR). Would also be nice to know the median/average age of the people moving in vs moving out as well.

        • April 21, 2021 at 10:56 AM #821144
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Congratulations on surviving the harsh Spring time weather. Please check back in after Summer

        • April 21, 2021 at 1:07 PM #821148
          Anonymous
          Guest

          [quote=EconProf]
          Regarding California’s population—it is declining in absolute terms. If you believe otherwise, your information is old. Census comes out with annual estimates in the first quarter of the year, and then as more data comes in gives us a revised member in July. The very latest figures show a decline.
          This is in marked contrast to California’s reputation as a destination, and for decades that reputation was deserved. But the rate of growth has declined for about five years and the latest revision shows an absolute decline.

          I call this an “ominous trend”. Piggs are free to speculate on the causes, but I believe the Census figures and expect them to accelerate in the years ahead.[/quote]

          If Ca population is really going down, that is not an ominous trend, that is great news. In the long run that would result in lower housing costs and less traffic among other things. The main reasons that I will most likely leave San Diego when I am retired is the high cost of living and the heavy population and traffic. Those would be the obvious reasons to move to Utah in my opinion, I could give a rats ass about what political party is in Sacramento.

        • April 21, 2021 at 1:19 PM #821149
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          The irony is I’ve always felt retirement in place is one of the best parts of living here. All my friends back East always looked forward to retiring in a beautiful place with a warm climate. I’ve been enjoying that all along and don’t need to move to get that. Of course they say they go to Florida because of low cost of living and taxes. But truth is they buy more expensive homes there and join expensive country clubs. If the weather sucked they wouldn’t be moving there either. Kinda defeats the argument of low cost of living and taxes as a reason to a large degree. I’m staying put!

        • April 22, 2021 at 3:11 PM #821153
          an
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]The irony is I’ve always felt retirement in place is one of the best parts of living here. All my friends back East always looked forward to retiring in a beautiful place with a warm climate. I’ve been enjoying that all along and don’t need to move to get that. Of course they say they go to Florida because of low cost of living and taxes. But truth is they buy more expensive homes there and join expensive country clubs. If the weather sucked they wouldn’t be moving there either. Kinda defeats the argument of low cost of living and taxes as a reason to a large degree. I’m staying put![/quote]
          I feel the same way about retirement. Every time I go on vacation, regardless of where, when I get back to SD and experience this weather, there’s no other place I’d rather live. People come here to vacation, so if I can live my life and experience the “vacation” every day, why would I leave if I can afford it here. I’m staying put as well.

        • April 23, 2021 at 7:06 AM #821154
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=an]
          I feel the same way about retirement. Every time I go on vacation, regardless of where, when I get back to SD and experience this weather, there’s no other place I’d rather live. People come here to vacation, so if I can live my life and experience the “vacation” every day, why would I leave if I can afford it here. I’m staying put as well.[/quote]

          I’ve lived in many other areas of the country. I know where I’m happiest, and that is in this state. As soon as we decided we would retire in San Diego, we put ourselves on a glide path to make that happen. When I retire, house will be paid off and we’ve got enough stashed away to live very comfortably.

          If we moved out of state to save a few income tax dollars, all we would be doing is adding to the $ we’ll give our kids when we kick the bucket. We’re already likely to give them a significant amount, so why would we move to an area we like less just to give them more? Wouldn’t make sense.

          Early on, we often thought we’d retire on the norcal coast, but the years have changed our minds. We would sacrifice entertainment options, weather, and access to major medical facilities if we did that. San Diego is the better choice.

        • April 24, 2021 at 7:51 PM #821165
          Myriad
          Participant

          People complain that CA is an expensive state to retire, but I wonder how many have actually done the math.
          Yes, if you’re young and looking to buy, it’s expensive. And if you’re moving to CA for retirement, it’s also expensive (relative to other states/cities).

          But… if you’re been here for 30 years and owned your home for that long, and saved decently, it’s really not that bad.
          So you have the following compared to other states:
          – lower property tax
          – no tax on SSA income
          – slightly higher income tax rate (for $60-100k taxable income) compared to states with taxes. Moderately higher for states w/o income tax: you’ll pay more in property tax/sales tax/or other expenditures for things that are not covered by taxes.

          How many people are actually paying the higher 10-13% state tax rate in retirement? And if you are, you can probably afford to “retire” to another state and keep your SD property as a second property (espeically now that you can move your property tax base to another property).

          So the key here is to reduce your taxable income by shifting as much to Roth before you get SSA. It does take a little planning ahead of retirement

        • April 27, 2021 at 7:33 AM #821180
          EconProf
          Participant

          Let’s revisit my claim of ‘ominous trends” for San Diego and CA I mentioned that got a lot of criticism. CA’s now declining population is a result of many “push factors” that are causing people and companies to make the very exensive decision to leave. Our taxes, utility costs, homelessness, and increasingly leftist government at the city, county, school district, and state level are driving this exodus. None of these trends show any sign of reversing. If you are in RE in any capacity, you know that your estimate of the future should determine today’s opinion and actions.
          San Diego’s relatively good RE picture today may be largely due to the well-off buyers fleeing the more disfunctional LA and Bay Area cities, as others here have mentioned. But the same push factors are now becoming evident in SD.
          People and businesses are fleeing the difunctional cities and states at an accelerating rate which could well accelerate if there is increasing civil disorder. Great weather and beaches are nice, but not enough for many people and businesses.

        • April 27, 2021 at 7:59 AM #821181
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          So the 10 perc bracket starts at 300k and 12 perc at 600k. Photos of people leaving in uhaul trucks aren’t in either of these brackets. Well, hell, I am, but I guess I am cheap enough to move myself in a uhaul.

          Maybe you’re right.

          If you’re calling a top to ca r.e. long term, prob. As foolish as calling a 20 year top to the nasdaq

        • April 27, 2021 at 12:11 PM #821189
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Enjoy St George and check back in when the temps are 110

          Data sadly omitted from your post

        • April 27, 2021 at 1:27 PM #821190
          EconProf
          Participant

          Will do SDR.
          Remember St George is high desert, so is noticeably cooler than Las Vegas. 110 degrees is not common. And there’s a 30 degree swing in temperatures, so mornings are OK.

        • April 27, 2021 at 4:37 PM #821203
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]Will do SDR.
          Remember St George is high desert, so is noticeably cooler than Las Vegas. 110 degrees is not common. And there’s a 30 degree swing in temperatures, so mornings are OK.[/quote]

          But 105 is

        • April 27, 2021 at 3:30 PM #821198
          gzz
          Participant

          “the more disfunctional LA and Bay Area cities”

          How many $10 billion+ companies were started in California the past decade versus Texas+Utah+Florida? I don’t hear much about Dell and Novell these days.

        • April 27, 2021 at 4:23 PM #821201
          an
          Participant

          [quote=gzz]”the more disfunctional LA and Bay Area cities”

          How many $10 billion+ companies were started in California the past decade versus Texas+Utah+Florida? I don’t hear much about Dell and Novell these days.[/quote]
          I think that’s backward looking. To get to $10B, you’d have to start at least 5-10 years ago, unless you get lucky. We all knew CA and NY are where the VC money was. TX and FL were not really on the radar. However, past performance does not guarantee future return. If you want to see where the next set of $10b+ companies will be in 10-20 years, you’d have to look at VC funding today. Today, it’s still mostly bay area and NYC. However, Austin has beaten out San Diego (which was @ #10 6 years ago) last year to claim the 10th spot.

          Also, just because they start in CA doesn’t mean they stay in CA. Just look at Tesla as a prime example. I know that cost of engineers here in CA is driving a lot of companies who have made it past survival mode to look outside of CA. When you’re in survival mode and need VC money, you need to be near the money. However, once you’re past that stage, distance to VC $ is no longer a high priority but cost of labor is.

        • April 27, 2021 at 4:28 PM #821202
          Anonymous
          Guest

          [quote=EconProf]Let’s revisit my claim of ‘ominous trends” for San Diego and CA I mentioned that got a lot of criticism. CA’s now declining population is a result of many “push factors” that are causing people and companies to make the very exensive decision to leave. Our taxes, utility costs, homelessness, and increasingly leftist government at the city, county, school district, and state level are driving this exodus. None of these trends show any sign of reversing. If you are in RE in any capacity, you know that your estimate of the future should determine today’s opinion and actions.
          San Diego’s relatively good RE picture today may be largely due to the well-off buyers fleeing the more disfunctional LA and Bay Area cities, as others here have mentioned. But the same push factors are now becoming evident in SD.
          People and businesses are fleeing the difunctional cities and states at an accelerating rate which could well accelerate if there is increasing civil disorder. Great weather and beaches are nice, but not enough for many people and businesses.[/quote]

          None of those factors are influencing SD RE prices one iota. If/when San Diego real estate prices crash it will be due to a crashing of the current global financial bubble which will affect RE prices in Utah and everywhere else.

        • April 27, 2021 at 6:00 PM #821205
          Myriad
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]Let’s revisit my claim of ‘ominous trends” for San Diego and CA I mentioned that got a lot of criticism. CA’s now declining population is a result of many “push factors” that are causing people and companies to make the very exensive decision to leave.[/quote]

          It’s yet to be seen how many people have actually moved out of state vs just moving in state.
          https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-citylab-how-americans-moved/

          Declining native-born population maybe. But the country needs more younger immigrants to offset the aging population and to pay for SSA/Medicare. Immigrants from Asia are highly likely to go to CA and TX – so the population won’t decline. Just won’t grow as fast as TX, AZ, or FL. But CA is still way better than most NE states, so you’ll get people moving away from those states also.
          The CA tax burden is much lower than those states.

          Costs in SF/SJ/LA/SD are much higher relative to other tier 1 cities in other states. But eventually the main cities in TX, AZ, FL prices will move up also, negating the cost differential over time.

        • April 27, 2021 at 6:11 PM #821206
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          NY and Boston not cheap. Denver not cheap anymore. Austin not cheap anymore. Raleigh still cheap but getting more expensive by the day. Seattle and Portland not cheap. Phoenix not cheap anymore. Cleveland is cheap.. Have at it

        • April 30, 2021 at 5:59 PM #821257
          Sdcateacher
          Participant

          Hahah
          I was telling people Ohio, Oklahoma and Iowa will become hot markets for people that can either work from home or retiree and enjoy low taxes and a low cost of living. Plenty of nice areas in those states and you can spend your spare time traveling.

        • May 2, 2021 at 9:27 AM #821270
          EconProf
          Participant

          Some observations from living here in St. George/Washington City for 4 weeks now.
          The people here are friendly, overwhelmingly white (a mixed blessing), young (Utah has the youngest state population), and athletic. Hiking, bicycling clubs abound, gyms aplenty, and everything is cheap, from gasoline to restaurants, to taxes. Ethnic restaurants aplenty, and I count 8 Thai restaurants for SDR to try. No ocean views, but snow-capped mountains visible from everywhere in town. Last of the snow just disappeared however.
          Our Brio development of 800 or so homes is about half built out. Since prices are going up so fast, the developer is no longer setting a fixed price and then committing. Instead, you get to bid on a finished product, and then it could become a bidding war. Average time on market for homes in town is 6 days. The broker sets a price, then gives people 5 days to come in with their best offer over that–all cash or pre-qualified only need apply.

        • May 3, 2021 at 12:17 PM #821283
          gzz
          Participant

          EP: Sounds like Park City UT in the summer, except it wasn’t cheap.

          A bidding way in a small Utah town, or anywhere outside large coastal cities, sounds like a very bad move for the buyer.

          Short term factors could see a 20% jump in prices in one year, but long term Utah should see housing prices rise only at the level of construction costs.

          That’s probably on a 2 to 3% long-term growth trendline in middle america.

          Utah will see its electricity costs go up when it has to close down its legacy coal power plants. It won’t go up to California levels, but the gap will partly disappear.

        • April 21, 2021 at 3:14 PM #821150
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]
          Regarding California’s population—it is declining in absolute terms. If you believe otherwise, your information is old. Census comes out with annual estimates in the first quarter of the year, and then as more data comes in gives us a revised member in July. The very latest figures show a decline.
          [/quote]

          “Californians may have been undercounted in the 2020 Census.

          The Census Bureau’s decennial population count will have far-reaching consequences for California’s political representation and federal funding. Three in four Californians belong to one or more hard-to-count groups: children, young men, Latino and African American residents, and renters. Noncitizens may also have been particularly reluctant to participate, given the Trump administration’s actions to curtail immigration and its attempt to add a citizenship question to the census form. The pandemic further upended outreach efforts and affected in-person follow-ups by census workers. Parts of the final count will become available starting in April 2021, but it will take longer to fully discern how disruptions may have affected the count’s accuracy.”

          https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-population/

        • April 21, 2021 at 4:16 PM #821152
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=svelte][quote=EconProf]
          Regarding California’s population—it is declining in absolute terms. If you believe otherwise, your information is old. Census comes out with annual estimates in the first quarter of the year, and then as more data comes in gives us a revised member in July. The very latest figures show a decline.
          [/quote]

          “Californians may have been undercounted in the 2020 Census.

          The Census Bureau’s decennial population count will have far-reaching consequences for California’s political representation and federal funding. Three in four Californians belong to one or more hard-to-count groups: children, young men, Latino and African American residents, and renters. Noncitizens may also have been particularly reluctant to participate, given the Trump administration’s actions to curtail immigration and its attempt to add a citizenship question to the census form. The pandemic further upended outreach efforts and affected in-person follow-ups by census workers. Parts of the final count will become available starting in April 2021, but it will take longer to fully discern how disruptions may have affected the count’s accuracy.”

          https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-population/%5B/quote%5D

          Anecdotally, temeculas so crowded it can be quicker to drive to poway than one town over to murrieta. Please have a few less people .. .please…

    • April 21, 2021 at 11:29 AM #821147
      gzz
      Participant

      EP: California has been net losing native-born American population for decades. All that’s happening now is the net immigration is dropping fast too.

      From my perspective, I prefer quality over quantity. I don’t know an easy way to look to see if this is a real trend, but it certainly seems like we’re getting less “huddled masses” and more highly educated immigrants, both young and mid-career.

      As for “ominous trends,” we’re seeing a strong trend toward smaller household sizes, especially in older suburbs. The fact that empty nest boomers are staying in 3 and 4 bedroom SFRs when earlier generations might have moved to a smaller apartment or multi-gen household does not strike me as ominous, but simply the result of California’s very low property taxes and general high quality of life and prosperity.

      To take a random example, Del Mar’s population dropped from 4,389 in the 2000 census to 4,161 in 2010.

    • April 22, 2021 at 3:18 PM #821151
      The-Shoveler
      Participant

      If you have a paid off primary (bought maybe 20-30 years ago), your tax rate should be fairly low.
      So staying put probably is a better option all considered.

      (like sdr I am staying put until they wheel me out)

      If you bought in a really expensive area with a really high MR, but then you are probably not worried about it either as you probably can afford it.

    • May 2, 2021 at 12:42 PM #821274
      svelte
      Participant

      Have a friend who sold their house for $1M and moved to Texas and purchased a similarly priced house. They got about 1,000SF more and pay 3.3 percent property tax.

      They are bored. And their San Diego house has went up 40% in value since they sold it.

      Another friend moved to Texas about 5 years ago, then moved to Oklahoma last year. He said leaving California is the worst mistake he ever made…now he’s priced out of the areas he liked in CA so it is impossible for him to come back.

      I know there are many who move to other states and are happy as a clam. I just don’t personally know them.

    • May 3, 2021 at 10:54 AM #821279
      sdduuuude
      Participant

      I wonder if “snowbirding” will become popular for working empty nesters if the working-remote thing sticks.

      Could I sell my home in San Diego and buy two kick-ass properties in two different cities – one for Summer living and one for Winter living ?

      Tucson for the Winter, Denver in the Summer, for example.
      or Phoenix / Idaho or Austin / New Hampshire, etc.

      • May 3, 2021 at 11:09 AM #821280
        The-Shoveler
        Participant

        [quote=sdduuuude]I wonder if “snowbirding” will become popular for working empty nesters if the working-remote thing sticks.

        Could I sell my home in San Diego and buy two kick-ass properties in two different cities – one for Summer living and one for Winter living ?

        Tucson for the Winter, Denver in the Summer, for example.
        or Phoenix / Idaho or Austin / New Hampshire, etc.[/quote]

        I think actually a condo would work better than a SFH in this type of case (Need someone to look after it while your gone for months at a time).

        Although in general I am against owning condos.

        • May 3, 2021 at 4:01 PM #821289
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=The-Shoveler][quote=sdduuuude]I wonder if “snowbirding” will become popular for working empty nesters if the working-remote thing sticks.

          Could I sell my home in San Diego and buy two kick-ass properties in two different cities – one for Summer living and one for Winter living ?

          Tucson for the Winter, Denver in the Summer, for example.
          or Phoenix / Idaho or Austin / New Hampshire, etc.[/quote]

          I think actually a condo would work better than a SFH in this type of case (Need someone to look after it while your gone for months at a time).

          Although in general I am against owning condos.[/quote]

          One nice van.

      • May 3, 2021 at 1:00 PM #821284
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        [quote=sdduuuude]I wonder if “snowbirding” will become popular for working empty nesters if the working-remote thing sticks.

        Could I sell my home in San Diego and buy two kick-ass properties in two different cities – one for Summer living and one for Winter living ?

        Tucson for the Winter, Denver in the Summer, for example.
        or Phoenix / Idaho or Austin / New Hampshire, etc.[/quote]

        Nobody wants to live in Tucson

        • May 3, 2021 at 1:16 PM #821285
          The-Shoveler
          Participant

          “Nobody wants to live in Tucson”

          Sounds like the Girl in the flatbed Ford looking for an escape.

          My bad that was Winslow

        • May 3, 2021 at 1:46 PM #821288
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=The-Shoveler]”Nobody wants to live in Tucson”

          Sounds like the Girl in the flatbed Ford looking for an escape.

          My bad that was Winslow[/quote]

          Its sdudes hometown 😉

        • May 3, 2021 at 4:37 PM #821294
          sdduuuude
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]Nobody wants to live in Tucson[/quote]

          Tucson is a great place to be from.

        • May 3, 2021 at 9:04 PM #821297
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=sdduuuude][quote=sdrealtor]Nobody wants to live in Tucson[/quote]

          Tucson is a great place to be from.[/quote]

          That’s what I always say about the Philadelphia area

        • May 4, 2021 at 8:51 AM #821298
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor][quote=sdduuuude][quote=sdrealtor]Nobody wants to live in Tucson[/quote]

          Tucson is a great place to be from.[/quote]

          That’s what I always say about the Philadelphia area[/quote]

          Brooklyn was the nation’s breeding ground.

    • May 3, 2021 at 1:21 PM #821286
      Coronita
      Participant

      I actually like san diego. I don’t consider it a liberal cesspool. I think it’s pretty well balanced.
      I like the bay area, because of the tech scene.

      Given the two, I won’t mind switching between the two locations to live.

      I don’t care about L.A. L.A. is an armpit imho.

      I’ve contemplated selling one of my properties and cashing in on the appreciation. Don’t need the money, it rented out $1000/month more than last year. I’ll let it ride.

    • May 4, 2021 at 9:24 AM #821299
      Myriad
      Participant

      The argument for moving to a different state is much stronger if you can’t afford to own a SFR and you only option is a condo or don’t currently own at home.
      So basically no one on this forum, LOL

    • May 4, 2021 at 11:06 AM #821301
      Hobie
      Participant

      .

    • May 5, 2021 at 8:02 AM #821311
      The-Shoveler
      Participant

      Matt Foley

      • May 5, 2021 at 10:38 AM #821312
        scaredyclassic
        Participant

        [quote=The-Shoveler]Matt Foley[/quote]

        No way. he’s so fucking cool. 81. still partying. got tons of chicks. totally free. dude was an inspiration

    • May 9, 2021 at 7:42 AM #821422
      Coronita
      Participant

      https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article251233624.html

      The interactive map shows in 2020 San Diego County lost 0.48% people, whereas riverside saw an increase of 0.56%

      Hardly a mass exodus.

      • May 9, 2021 at 8:23 AM #821425
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        Less immigration due to Covid-19. Lower wage hospitality workers moved back home. Birth rate down. High cost of housing means less coming here but those that do are wealthier.

        Will be interesting to watch over next decade. Could go either way

        • May 10, 2021 at 11:49 AM #821461
          gzz
          Participant

          I agree with SDR on major factors. Also seems like counties with a larger share of students had larger pop declines. Look at Santa Cruz at -3.5% in one year. Also look how Yolo Co (UC Davis) had a 1.7% loss while next door Sacramento was positive 0.5%.

        • May 11, 2021 at 12:07 PM #821471
          barnaby33
          Participant

          YOLO in Yolo, maybe once?
          Josh

    • May 12, 2021 at 3:24 PM #821498
      svelte
      Participant

      Well it had to happen. New home contracts being canceled in Utah. Hope your home is already built econ or you could be facing a contractor who now wants to renegotiate the price:

      Probably going to happen all over the US soon…

      • May 13, 2021 at 10:11 AM #821511
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        Utah and it’s 3M residents had a $1.5B budget surplus. Sounds like a well run state. Poorly run California and it’s 40M residents only had a $75B budget surplus

        • May 17, 2021 at 7:01 AM #821554
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]Utah and it’s 3M residents had a $1.5B budget surplus. Sounds like a well run state. Poorly run California and it’s 40M residents only had a $75B budget surplus[/quote]

          +1

          Yeah California society is pretty f’ed up all right. 🙂

    • May 16, 2021 at 8:59 PM #821552
      flyer
      Participant

      Like so many of us on this forum, I know EP mentioned, along with the primary, he has/had? many investment properties. As mentioned in another thread, that’s turned out to be much like winning the lottery–especially in San Diego–so, I’m guessing, he must have had significant reasons–other than financial–for making the move, and I wish him well.

    • May 17, 2021 at 6:23 AM #821553
      EconProf
      Participant

      Thanks Flyer, and you are quite right that the move was prompted less by financial motives than other factors.
      Commentators on the left and the right agree that the nation is dividing into two geographic directions, or what could be called factions. The big cities, especially coastal ones versus the inland ones, the latter perhaps including the ex-urban parts of all cities.
      Given current trends, I want to be part of the inland, more rural part. The culture, politics, and friendliness of the people are entirely different. We will never buy motels to house the homeless and addicted or free repeat-criminals from our jails or teach school children to be race-conscious. We won’t close our schools unnecessarily. Our taxes and fiscal future will stay healthy, crime rates will stay low, and education levels high. Our influx of escaping “refugees” from the woke cities will continue.
      As a long-ago liberal–it’s hard to be a college teacher and not be liberal–my entry into the private sector via real estate investing and being a contractor in the inner city gave me a rude awakening.
      Of course much of this change is due to simply getting old. As Winston Churchill said, paraphrasing, “To be young and not liberal is to have no heart. To be old and not conservative is to have no head.”

      • May 17, 2021 at 8:11 AM #821555
        phaster
        Participant

        [quote=EconProf]
        As a long-ago liberal–it’s hard to be a college teacher and not be liberal–my entry into the private sector via real estate investing and being a contractor in the inner city gave me a rude awakening.
        Of course much of this change is due to simply getting old. As Winston Churchill said, paraphrasing, “To be young and not liberal is to have no heart. To be old and not conservative is to have no head.”[/quote]

        sigh,… seems local elected leadership didn’t get the Churchill memo

      • May 17, 2021 at 9:43 AM #821557
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        [quote=EconProf]Thanks Flyer, and you are quite right that the move was prompted less by financial motives than other factors.
        Commentators on the left and the right agree that the nation is dividing into two geographic directions, or what could be called factions. The big cities, especially coastal ones versus the inland ones, the latter perhaps including the ex-urban parts of all cities.
        Given current trends, I want to be part of the inland, more rural part. The culture, politics, and friendliness of the people are entirely different. We will never buy motels to house the homeless and addicted or free repeat-criminals from our jails or teach school children to be race-conscious. We won’t close our schools unnecessarily. Our taxes and fiscal future will stay healthy, crime rates will stay low, and education levels high. Our influx of escaping “refugees” from the woke cities will continue.
        As a long-ago liberal–it’s hard to be a college teacher and not be liberal–my entry into the private sector via real estate investing and being a contractor in the inner city gave me a rude awakening.
        Of course much of this change is due to simply getting old. As Winston Churchill said, paraphrasing, “To be young and not liberal is to have no heart. To be old and not conservative is to have no head.”[/quote]

        What hogwash and intellectual dishonesty. You moved to be near your children and grandchildren. You could’ve just left it at that! If they were here you still would be and you know that. You’re just using your move to be near them as an excuse to bash CA on your way out.

        • May 17, 2021 at 4:27 PM #821565
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor][quote=EconProf]Thanks Flyer, and you are quite right that the move was prompted less by financial motives than other factors.
          Commentators on the left and the right agree that the nation is dividing into two geographic directions, or what could be called factions. The big cities, especially coastal ones versus the inland ones, the latter perhaps including the ex-urban parts of all cities.
          Given current trends, I want to be part of the inland, more rural part. The culture, politics, and friendliness of the people are entirely different. We will never buy motels to house the homeless and addicted or free repeat-criminals from our jails or teach school children to be race-conscious. We won’t close our schools unnecessarily. Our taxes and fiscal future will stay healthy, crime rates will stay low, and education levels high. Our influx of escaping “refugees” from the woke cities will continue.
          As a long-ago liberal–it’s hard to be a college teacher and not be liberal–my entry into the private sector via real estate investing and being a contractor in the inner city gave me a rude awakening.
          Of course much of this change is due to simply getting old. As Winston Churchill said, paraphrasing, “To be young and not liberal is to have no heart. To be old and not conservative is to have no head.”[/quote]

          What hogwash and intellectual dishonesty. You moved to be near your children and grandchildren. You could’ve just left it at that! If they were here you still would be and you know that. You’re just using your move to be near them as an excuse to bash CA on your way out.[/quote]

          utah’s just 1 percent black. maybe utah schools can just teach that there’s such a thing as other races, and work up to race consciousness, since your grandkids probably wont ever actually interact witha black kid at
          school. and wait…Utah is NEVER gonna release a repeat offenor from jail? 3 shopliftings and you get life? deadzone will buy a house before you see you’re full of crap! basically, the republicans of utah will talk a good game of “personal responsibility” and instead of actually taking responsibility for its people, they’ll export their problems of their homeless people who fail to get with the program to california, not keep them in utah jails forever. haha! sucks to get old. Us Old people think we have more brains, but really it’s just a narrowing, of the arteries, the heart, the vision for the future.

          hunker down in utah old man. keep on believing you’re getting “smarter”. i think old people get crankier and dumber because of aches and pain, general inflammation, and decreased blood flow, and fear, fear based on weakness…a sense that the world is slipping away, out of control, and the only way to ensure predictable safety is to bring the hammer down hard on everyone who presents any risk whatsoever.

        • May 17, 2021 at 4:55 PM #821568
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          Also, Churchill never said that quote about liberals.

          Quotes Falsely Attributed to Winston Churchill

          I’m not saying that to be pedantic or be smarter than you. I’m saying your head, and my head, is stuffed full of SHIT that is flat out UNTRUE. For instance your claim that Utah people are FRIENDLIER. Haha

          https://sltrib.com/news/education/2020/05/12/utah-dead-last-again-per/

          Clearly the state of Utah doesn’t value education with money. Not sure how that bodes for the future. On the bright side, old rich farts like you who decamp with their cali cash what ch they never would’ve made in Utah, don’t have to pay taxes to help the little fuckers in school by way of taxes. Haha. Winning….you get to piss on the state that made you rich, and give none of it back to where you’re going.

          Brilliant

          I really doubt the neighbors will LOVE a Know it all California professor…

        • May 17, 2021 at 4:57 PM #821569
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          / this

        • May 17, 2021 at 6:15 PM #821571
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          interesting website; quoteinvestigator…tries to track down where this liberal/conservative brains heart quote actually came from…

          If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart. If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain

          In 1923 the “Wall Street Journal” credited King Oscar II of Sweden with a version of the remark using the word “socialist” instead of “républicain” or “republican”.

          By 1929 the saying had inspired the title of a play: “Before You’re 25” by Kenyon Nicholson which opened in New York and received a lukewarm review by a well-known drama critic:

          …..

          BUT: the one I like best is playwright george bernard shaw’s version, which basically subverts the meaning you intend…

          … a thematically connected statement was made by George Bernard Shaw when he delivered a speech at the University of Hong Kong in 1933:

          If you don’t begin to be a revolutionist at the age of twenty then at fifty you will be an impossible old fossil. If you are a red revolutionary at the age of twenty you have some chance of being up to date when you are forty.

          So, yeah, you botched not only the attribution of the quote, but its probable actual meaning, which is, move somewhat to the middle from your youthful extreme, or risk becoming a useless old fart who’s stuck in a fairy tale past conservative fantasy land that doesn’t and shouldnt exist.

          No one wants to be an “impossible old fossil”, right.

          maybe itd be better for you to stay in so cal, where the youth culture, the sun and salt air, the vibrant populace and culture that INFLUENCES THE ENTIRE WORLD has a chance of keeping you out of fossildom!

          let me ask you this; if me and Flyer can acquire the international exclusive rights to the property BEFORE YOU’RE 25, the play, would you be willing to finance a production at a local theatre? I can guarantee you 35% of the proceeds from any subsequent movie deal.

          I guess at heart I am PROUD of california and hate when people piss on it. Retirement fantasies are for the old, the dying, the fossils.

        • May 17, 2021 at 9:05 PM #821572
          Coronita
          Participant

          note to self…. dont piss off scardey….i didnt think it would be possible…but if one manages to achieve the almost impossibility…boy are you in for an inrefutable rude awakening…

          holy sheet….

          nice kittycat.. nice kittycat..

        • May 17, 2021 at 9:43 PM #821573
          flyer
          Participant

          scaredy, I’ll have to let you go solo on the play deal. My wife is the movie/play deal maker around our house, and she has more projects than she’ll ever be able to complete in this lifetime. Don’t know if there is a market for the type of project you’re considering, but you never know what might sell.

          Personally, I don’t think EP deserves this much venom, just because his views may be different from those held by others. Conflicting views never bother me, because I realize each side always assumes they are absolutely right, which, of course, in and of itself, is a faulty premise. That premise as a given, I just consider the entire discourse on both sides nothing more or less than interesting.

        • May 18, 2021 at 4:17 AM #821575
          Coronita
          Participant

          [quote=flyer]scaredy, I’ll have to let you go solo on the play deal. My wife is the movie/play deal maker around our house, and she has more projects than she’ll ever be able to complete in this lifetime. Don’t know if there is a market for the type of project you’re considering, but you never know what might sell.

          Personally, I don’t think EP deserves this much venom, just because his views may be different from those held by others. Conflicting views never bother me, because I realize each side always assumes they are absolutely right, which, of course, in and of itself, is a faulty premise. That premise as a given, I just consider the entire discourse on both sides nothing more or less than interesting.[/quote]

          Work, dealmaker???? pfff….only plebian poor people work…rich people are too busy comparing their yacht sizes…

        • May 18, 2021 at 5:52 AM #821577
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=Coronita]note to self…. dont piss off scardey….i didnt think it would be possible…but if one manages to achieve the almost impossibility…boy are you in for an inrefutable rude awakening…

          holy sheet….

          nice kittycat.. nice kittycat..[/quote]

          Just joshing. Ultimately, it’s still therapy.

        • May 18, 2021 at 6:00 AM #821579
          Coronita
          Participant

          [quote=scaredyclassic][quote=Coronita]note to self…. dont piss off scardey….i didnt think it would be possible…but if one manages to achieve the almost impossibility…boy are you in for an inrefutable rude awakening…

          holy sheet….

          nice kittycat.. nice kittycat..[/quote]

          Just joshing. Ultimately, it’s still therapy.[/quote]

          [img_assist|nid=27364|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=300]

        • May 18, 2021 at 6:17 AM #821580
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=Coronita][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=Coronita]note to self…. dont piss off scardey….i didnt think it would be possible…but if one manages to achieve the almost impossibility…boy are you in for an inrefutable rude awakening…

          holy sheet….

          nice kittycat.. nice kittycat..[/quote]

          Just joshing. Ultimately, it’s still therapy.[/quote]

          [img_assist|nid=27364|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=300][/quote]

          Better to be kind. I’m in the middle of assertiveness training related to personal issues and lost my way.

        • May 18, 2021 at 6:38 AM #821584
          Coronita
          Participant

          [quote]
          [quote=Coronita][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=Coronita]note to self…. dont piss off scardey….i didnt think it would be possible…but if one manages to achieve the almost impossibility…boy are you in for an inrefutable rude awakening…

          holy sheet….

          nice kittycat.. nice kittycat..[/quote]

          Just joshing. Ultimately, it’s still therapy.[/quote]

          [img_assist|nid=27364|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=300][/quote]

          Better to be kind. I’m in the middle of assertiveness training related to personal issues and lost my way.[/quote]

          I was suppose to undergo sensitivity training… Whoops….
          [img_assist|nid=27365|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=400]

        • May 24, 2021 at 7:15 AM #821791
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=scaredyclassic]
          .Utah is NEVER gonna release a repeat offenor from jail? 3 shopliftings and you get life? deadzone will buy a house before you see you’re full of crap! basically, the republicans of utah will talk a good game of “personal responsibility” and instead of actually taking responsibility for its people,
          [/quote]
          My wife and I travel all over. People always warned us to watch our for NYC, Rome and Naples but you know what? Not a single problem in those cities and we are out late at night often.

          Know where we have had problems? Utah! Not once but on two separate trips we’ve had our cc number stolen while there. I tend to think Utahans may not be that bright so scammers can run scams there a long, long time before getting caught. Had to have our cc canceled and new ones sent during the trips. What a pain in the butt.

          [quote=scaredyclassic]
          hunker down in utah old man. keep on believing you’re getting “smarter”. i think old people get crankier and dumber because of aches and pain, general inflammation, and decreased blood flow, and fear, fear based on weakness…a sense that the world is slipping away, out of control, and the only way to ensure predictable safety is to bring the hammer down hard on everyone who presents any risk whatsoever.[/quote]

          I think that’s part of it and part of it is that old folks get tired of seeing the world make the same stupid mistakes. We all have a different idea on what those mistakes are, but whatever their viewpoint it gets old seeing very little being learned from prior generations.

        • May 24, 2021 at 7:27 AM #821792
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          Like the world would be better if it listened to me, or econprof? Lol. Essentially, we are all in agreement…destroy and consume the earth. Our only quibble is how fast to consume it and how to divide the carcass…

        • May 24, 2021 at 1:54 PM #821795
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=scaredyclassic]Like the world would be better if it listened to me, or econprof? Lol. Essentially, we are all in agreement…destroy and consume the earth. Our only quibble is how fast to consume it and how to divide the carcass…[/quote]

          look at the bright side, scaredy. The sun isn’t going to last forever anyway. And when its gone, what we did to Mother Earth will not matter one iota.

        • May 24, 2021 at 3:03 PM #821796
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=svelte][quote=scaredyclassic]Like the world would be better if it listened to me, or econprof? Lol. Essentially, we are all in agreement…destroy and consume the earth. Our only quibble is how fast to consume it and how to divide the carcass…[/quote]

          look at the bright side, scaredy. The sun isn’t going to last forever anyway. And when its gone, what we did to Mother Earth will not matter one iota.[/quote]

          Sure. If I get real hungry, I can just eat my grandkids. No worries.

        • May 24, 2021 at 9:07 PM #821798
          zk
          Participant

          [quote=scaredyclassic]

          Sure. If I get real hungry, I can just eat my grandkids. No worries.[/quote]

          Classic scaredyclassic right there. The succinctness with which you can make your arguments (even big ones) is a wonder to behold.

        • May 24, 2021 at 9:31 PM #821799
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          welcome back zk. We are talking about real estate again:)

        • May 24, 2021 at 9:55 PM #821801
          zk
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]welcome back zk. We are talking about real estate again:)[/quote]

          Yeah, definitely not as interesting as it used to be. Scaredy always has something fascinating to say, though.

        • May 24, 2021 at 10:07 PM #821802
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          To the contrary I think RE is as interesting as its ever been. The run up has been huge and no one knows what is coming next

        • May 24, 2021 at 10:33 PM #821803
          zk
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]To the contrary I think RE is as interesting as its ever been. The run up has been huge and no one knows what is coming next[/quote]

          I didn’t mean real estate is less interesting now. I meant this forum is less interesting now.

          I do read some of the real estate stuff; I like to keep up to date in case an opportunity that I can’t resist presents itself. And it is certainly an interesting time in real estate. But, overall, this forum is still less interesting than it used to be. The non-real-estate conversations on a variety of subjects with intelligent, interesting people were lively and stimulating, and as those have waned, so has the fun of this forum.

          I mainly show up to see what scaredy is saying. He’s a very rare talent, and we’re lucky he posts his wildly original, frequently fascinating, usually funny, sometimes thought-provoking thoughts on this forum.

        • May 25, 2021 at 5:53 AM #821804
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          You should spend some time on the wine blogs. There are tons of interesting, quirky, highly intelligent people and like him many are lawyers

        • May 25, 2021 at 6:28 AM #821805
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          Right now I’m suddenly deeply interested in men’s issues. Was up late reading no more Mr nice guy, by Dr. Glover. I may have to make big changes in my life, including not seeking approval in chat groups.

      • May 17, 2021 at 11:08 AM #821558
        Coronita
        Participant

        [quote=EconProf]Thanks Flyer, and you are quite right that the move was prompted less by financial motives than other factors.
        Commentators on the left and the right agree that the nation is dividing into two geographic directions, or what could be called factions. The big cities, especially coastal ones versus the inland ones, the latter perhaps including the ex-urban parts of all cities.
        Given current trends, I want to be part of the inland, more rural part. The culture, politics, and friendliness of the people are entirely different. We will never buy motels to house the homeless and addicted or free repeat-criminals from our jails or teach school children to be race-conscious. We won’t close our schools unnecessarily. Our taxes and fiscal future will stay healthy, crime rates will stay low, and education levels high. Our influx of escaping “refugees” from the woke cities will continue.
        As a long-ago liberal–it’s hard to be a college teacher and not be liberal–my entry into the private sector via real estate investing and being a contractor in the inner city gave me a rude awakening.
        Of course much of this change is due to simply getting old. As Winston Churchill said, paraphrasing, “To be young and not liberal is to have no heart. To be old and not conservative is to have no head.”[/quote]

        Why do people after a certain age roughly past 60+ feel so compelled to be so hateful? I mean, is there some sort of thing that once you get past 60, something happens in the brain chemistry that people just tend to process bitterness/anger more readily than things positive?

        I see this in some of my own relatives. It’s like there’s a mental short circuit or something, and higher brain function starts to process negativity/bitter/hate often times choosing to process false negativity rather than truth positives.

        I say this because I have a relative that watches fox news and cnn news. And while both news tend to lie and distort on different issues, fox news tends to do so by negative lies….cnn tends to lie on false positive lies… But the lies that I see being processed and believed are the falsehoods on Fox News, the hate rhetoric…I got this relative that actually believes 5G can cause covid because he read it on one of the alt-right “news outlets”… This is a guy who studied applied and engineering physics in college….

        I don’t get it.

        • May 17, 2021 at 1:49 PM #821559
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          As I always say. California leads, the rest follow

          https://patch.com/california/san-francisco/california-leads-our-national-recovery-despite-perpetual-naysayers?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=share&fbclid=IwAR3ndUl-0EYtDiRRrc0PzGbQCYkX0JgSeN1Ow9AO6V79iRaHeykZjFfi85M

        • May 17, 2021 at 1:54 PM #821560
          an
          Participant

          [quote=Coronita][quote=EconProf]Thanks Flyer, and you are quite right that the move was prompted less by financial motives than other factors.
          Commentators on the left and the right agree that the nation is dividing into two geographic directions, or what could be called factions. The big cities, especially coastal ones versus the inland ones, the latter perhaps including the ex-urban parts of all cities.
          Given current trends, I want to be part of the inland, more rural part. The culture, politics, and friendliness of the people are entirely different. We will never buy motels to house the homeless and addicted or free repeat-criminals from our jails or teach school children to be race-conscious. We won’t close our schools unnecessarily. Our taxes and fiscal future will stay healthy, crime rates will stay low, and education levels high. Our influx of escaping “refugees” from the woke cities will continue.
          As a long-ago liberal–it’s hard to be a college teacher and not be liberal–my entry into the private sector via real estate investing and being a contractor in the inner city gave me a rude awakening.
          Of course much of this change is due to simply getting old. As Winston Churchill said, paraphrasing, “To be young and not liberal is to have no heart. To be old and not conservative is to have no head.”[/quote]

          Why do people after a certain age roughly past 60+ feel so compelled to be so hateful? I mean, is there some sort of thing that once you get past 60, something happens in the brain chemistry that people just tend to process bitterness/anger more readily than things positive?

          I see this in some of my own relatives. It’s like there’s a mental short circuit or something, and higher brain function starts to process negativity/bitter/hate often times choosing to process false negativity rather than truth positives.

          I say this because I have a relative that watches fox news and cnn news. And while both news tend to lie and distort on different issues, fox news tends to do so by negative lies….cnn tends to lie on false positive lies… But the lies that I see being processed and believed are the falsehoods on Fox News, the hate rhetoric…I got this relative that actually believes 5G can cause covid because he read it on one of the alt-right “news outlets”… This is a guy who studied applied and engineering physics in college….

          I don’t get it.[/quote]
          I would say the positive vs negative will depend on which side is in the white house. Every time I turn on CNN during Trump, I would get an impression that the sky is falling and now, it’s Fox’s turn.

        • May 17, 2021 at 3:32 PM #821564
          The-Shoveler
          Participant

          [quote=an]
          I would say the positive vs negative will depend on which side is in the white house. Every time I turn on CNN during Trump, I would get an impression that the sky is falling and now, it’s Fox’s turn.[/quote]

          LOL yes its a sad state of affairs where our major news media outlets have basically become propaganda outlets for one extreme view or the other.

          Probably the only thing keeping CNN alive is Trump LOL, they don’t really do world news anymore or for the last 5 or so years.

        • May 17, 2021 at 11:34 PM #821574
          Anonymous
          Guest

          I’ve observed many older, retired folks falling into the extreme political propaganda stuff. We all know the Fox news stereotype. But I’ve seen the same thing with my own parents on the liberal side. I think it is a combination of early onset dementia and just not having any real world problems (ie job, family, etc) to deal with.

          I sure hope when I am retired I have enough hobbies to keep my mind away from politics.

        • May 18, 2021 at 6:00 AM #821578
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=deadzone]I’ve observed many older, retired folks falling into the extreme political propaganda stuff. We all know the Fox news stereotype. But I’ve seen the same thing with my own parents on the liberal side. I think it is a combination of early onset dementia and just not having any real world problems (ie job, family, etc) to deal with.

          I sure hope when I am retired I have enough hobbies to keep my mind away from politics.[/quote]

          Maybe old people just watch too much news. My super liberal mom worries the world’s going to hell too. I beg her to stop watching CNN for hours. She refuses.

          As for me, my wife says I’m starting to sound more conservative the last few. YearsOf course, she’s practically a pinko commie.

      • June 13, 2021 at 7:50 AM #822131
        svelte
        Participant

        [quote=EconProf]
        Of course much of this change is due to simply getting old. As Winston Churchill said, paraphrasing, “To be young and not liberal is to have no heart. To be old and not conservative is to have no head.”[/quote]

        When I was in my 30s and 40s, I used to say that quote a lot.

        I haven’t said it for about 10 years.

        The reason is that, as I began approaching “old” I did not turn very conservative and I started to think about why that is, in relation to that quote. I’ve come to this conclusion: it is describing (young & liberal then old & conservative) a self-centered person.

        Young folks are typically poorer and often need to leverage public benefits like student loans or grants, assistance with health care, child care or even food. As one ages and acquires wealth, those public benefits no longer benefit them and they view them as expenses. They vote to minimize the public benefits that they themselves once used. Think school bonds to support their local school district.

        Self-centered.

    • May 18, 2021 at 5:53 AM #821576
      Coronita
      Participant

      .

    • May 24, 2021 at 6:47 AM #821790
      Coronita
      Participant

      https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/california-powering-us-job-gains-5065860/

      California powered U.S. job growth last month, accounting for 38% of the country’s new jobs. However, one professor tells The Los Angeles Times that the hiring spree seen in the state is from a “lockdown harder and longer than in many parts of the country.” And the comeback has a long way to go: California still has to fill more than half of the jobs lost during the pandemic, and its unemployment rate has stalled at 8.3%. Economists are optimistic the rebound will strengthen after the state’s full reopening, slated for June 15.

      Worst should be over…unless we have a proliferation of anti-vaxxer idiots that want to politicize getting a vaccine in as much wearing a mask.

    • June 1, 2021 at 12:05 PM #821938
      barnaby33
      Participant

      Having just driven through St George a couple of days ago, the amount of building there is just nuts. Also reading the billboards while driving through dropped my IQ by a solid 10-15 points. I suppose beauty has it’s price!
      Josh

      • June 1, 2021 at 12:55 PM #821939
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        That doesnt leave you many left;)

    • June 13, 2021 at 8:00 PM #822134
      zk
      Participant

      To be conservative (today’s typical American conservative, anyway) at any age is to have no heart. And no head, for that matter, given that most of them believe that trump won the election.

      • June 14, 2021 at 8:02 AM #822135
        scaredyclassic
        Participant

        To be young and conservative is to be brainless.
        To be old and liberal is to be brave.

        I’m veering toward old and conservative. Should we be investing for the future? Isn’t that kinda far off?

        Proposition a: it is dumb to vote against your own interests

        Proposition b: ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for yr country.

        • June 14, 2021 at 8:05 AM #822137
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=scaredyclassic]To be young and conservative is to be brainless.
          To be old and liberal is to be brave.
          [/quote]

          Love it!

      • June 14, 2021 at 8:05 AM #822136
        scaredyclassic
        Participant

        [quote=zk]To be conservative (today’s typical American conservative, anyway) at any age is to have no heart. And no head, for that matter, given that most of them believe that trump won the election.[/quote]

        Too many Americans have internalized Oprah’s version of THE SECRET by Byrne.

        Visualize and receive.

        This is a sign of the end of democracy.

    • June 14, 2021 at 9:54 AM #822140
      scaredyclassic
      Participant

      if young people lack the foresight and planning to have been born in the more distant past, I don’t see why older people should have any requirement to take care of these irresponsible latecomers.

    • July 15, 2021 at 10:36 PM #822518
      Coronita
      Participant

      I haven’t turned on my AC yet for the summer. Actually come to think about it, haven’t used it for 2021 yet.

      For my previous primary, it was one of those run down 5/3 stucco boxes in the slum part of 92130 that didn’t even come with AC. I never used AC since I moved into that slum area from 2004 to when I moved out in 2019. When my latest tenant moved in, they asked if I could install AC, and being a good landlord I did. I spent $7500 to install a brand new furnace and AC unit, figuring it’s about 1.5 months of rent, and a tax writeoff, and would elevate my slum house to something closer to modern day standards…. My tenant hasn’t turned it on yet… I guess there’s an advantage of being close enough to the ocean to get a nice ocean breeze….

      • July 15, 2021 at 10:41 PM #822519
        scaredyclassic
        Participant

        In Temecula, if you just lie still on the cool tile floor, you are ok. Just don’t get up

        • July 15, 2021 at 10:44 PM #822520
          Coronita
          Participant

          [quote=scaredyclassic]In Temecula, if you just lie still on the cool tile floor, you are ok. Just don’t get up[/quote]

          You have tile???? Damn Scardey that’s a luxury. My slum house in 92130 doesn’t even have tile. It has that plvinyl that marketing now calls “luxury linoleum”….Some of us can’t even afford the finer things in life like tile, except when sparingly used in the smaller bathrooms. That and those pesky lizards and too many damn walls in far flung drug infested 92130…as BG use to call it…

        • July 15, 2021 at 10:53 PM #822522
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=scaredyclassic]In Temecula, if you just lie still on the cool tile floor, you are ok. Just don’t get up[/quote]

          If I lie down on the tile I may not be able to get up

        • July 15, 2021 at 11:23 PM #822523
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          On the topic of culture this will surprise most if not all of you about SD being an up and coming cultural center in the world!

          More Broadway plays start their productions in San Diego before getting taken to Broadway than any city in the world. Any… City.. In.. The… World!

          UCSD was recently named as one of the top 5 theatre schools in the World. Big things are happening here

        • July 16, 2021 at 7:12 AM #822525
          Coronita
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor][quote=scaredyclassic]In Temecula, if you just lie still on the cool tile floor, you are ok. Just don’t get up[/quote]

          If I lie down on the tile I may not be able to get up[/quote]

          You are so in luck… You see, last night I tried exactly what Scardey was saying, and laid down on my walk in closet that has tile (yeah, I’m moving up in the world..whooohoo)…And he’s right. If it’s probably 5 degrees cooler lying on the tile.

          But that’s not all. While I was staring at the ceiling, I noticed a large box I had not unpacked from my old place….So I got up and unpacked it…And oh my god, what a treasure I found inside the box that i totally forgot I had since I was a kid…

          [img_assist|nid=27423|title=bingo!|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=800|height=600]

          It’s BINGO … with a STEEL CAGE!!!!! as it says on the box!!!! Whooohooo. None of this made in china plastic shit you find these days… This hand crafted BINGO playset has withstood the test of time. I think it was from the late 1970s, maybe early 1980’s from Golden Circle (see the old price sticker still on it). Golden Circle was the dept store that was renamed to “Target”…

          Checkout the cool bingo boards. Even if you can’t get off your back from the tile…you can still play BINGO with these boards. These are high tech chip-less BINGO boards that were invented probably from the early 80ies!!!!

          Hey you, me and AN…. we can now play BINGO…No need to go all the way to St George for a killer bingo game. We can do this right out side my backyard, without AC of course, if you don’t mind the lizards, too many walls, in far flung lizard infested (new) 92130 house.

          The bingo boards are a little funky. They use old car makers name, some of thee youngester millenials never heard of…

          So for example, you’ll have say B(uick) – Pontiac..

          BINGO!!!

        • July 16, 2021 at 7:14 AM #822526
          Coronita
          Participant

          Come to think about it. Maybe some old fart on ebay will pay a fortune for this…hmmmm. let me check…
          This was made by “Pressman Toy” in New York, NY.

        • July 16, 2021 at 7:15 AM #822527
          Coronita
          Participant

          Wait here we go…

          https://www.ebay.com/itm/224516612826?hash=item34463ba2da:g:gxsAAOSwVORg3OgB

          2 for $12.50 Car-Bingo

        • July 16, 2021 at 7:22 AM #822528
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=Coronita][quote=sdrealtor][quote=scaredyclassic]In Temecula, if you just lie still on the cool tile floor, you are ok. Just don’t get up[/quote]

          If I lie down on the tile I may not be able to get up[/quote]

          You are so in luck… You see, last night I tried exactly what Scardey was saying, and laid down on my walk in closet that has tile (yeah, I’m moving up in the world..whooohoo)…And he’s right. If it’s probably 5 degrees cooler lying on the tile.

          But that’s not all. While I was staring at the ceiling, I noticed a large box I had not unpacked from my old place….So I got up and unpacked it…And oh my god, what a treasure I found inside the box that i totally forgot I had since I was a kid…

          [img_assist|nid=27423|title=bingo!|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=800|height=600]

          It’s BINGO … with a STEEL CAGE!!!!! as it says on the box!!!! Whooohooo. None of this made in china plastic shit you find these days… This hand crafted BINGO playset has withstood the test of time. I think it was from the late 1970s, maybe early 1980’s from Golden Circle (see the old price sticker still on it). Golden Circle was the dept store that was renamed to “Target”…

          Checkout the cool bingo boards. Even if you can’t get off your back from the tile…you can still play BINGO with these boards. These are high tech chip-less BINGO boards that were invented probably from the early 80ies!!!!

          Hey you, me and AN…. we can now play BINGO…No need to go all the way to St George for a killer bingo game. We can do this right out side my backyard, without AC of course, if you don’t mind the lizards, too many walls, in far flung lizard infested (new) 92130 house.

          The bingo boards are a little funky. They use old car makers name, some of thee youngester millenials never heard of…

          So for example, you’ll have say B(uick) – Pontiac..

          BINGO!!![/quote]

          So often the correct choice is to be still and do nothing.

        • July 16, 2021 at 7:34 AM #822529
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor][quote=scaredyclassic]In Temecula, if you just lie still on the cool tile floor, you are ok. Just don’t get up[/quote]

          If I lie down on the tile I may not be able to get up[/quote]

          When I tell my hot wife to just lie on the floor with me and skip the a/c she is generally unamused.

        • July 17, 2021 at 9:50 AM #822538
          The-Shoveler
          Participant

          [quote=scaredyclassic]

          When I tell my hot wife to just lie on the floor with me and skip the a/c she is generally unamused.[/quote]

          Yea My wife’s hot too !!

          Oh wait we’re talking about AC

    • July 15, 2021 at 10:52 PM #822521
      Coronita
      Participant

      For my retirement, I’d probably like to stay here part time and part time in the bay area. Hopefully by the time my kid goes off to college in 3 years(I hope), I can finally become a tech exec and finally be able to do what I’ve always wanted to do: get back to my Bay Area tech roots where it all started. Good grief, I’ll be half a century old by then and should be getting my AARP card also…I won’t be able to step into Tipsy Crow anymore half drunk and still like it was 2 years ago before the pandemic . Biggest complement was when the bouncer was like damn you asians don’t look anywhere near your age… It goes downhill soon though…Stick a fork in me.

      I already found a BINGO club at the senior center in Sunnyvale, CA.

    • July 16, 2021 at 2:49 AM #822524
      Coronita
      Participant

      We are definitely seeing some growth here. Can’t wait to see the lightrail build out. Pretty cool the lightrail will go as far as UTC/Genesse medical center area now.

      https://www.keepsandiegomoving.com/Mid-coast/midcoast-intro.aspx

    • July 23, 2021 at 7:49 AM #822587
      DataAgent
      Participant

      My wife and I are now almost 70 years old. Back around 2018, I looked all over the west coast for a cheaper place to retire. When we discovered the strong influence of the Mormon church on the St George area, St George was was quickly removed from our list. My wife and I are very anti-organized religion. When we learned that about 75% of the permanent residents were Mormon, St George didn’t make the first cut.

      My wife and I have been married for over 45 years. We grew up over 2000 miles apart. We met in the US Air Force. From Day 1, we were planning our retirement. Our families were very poor and gave us nothing to start with. So money was our biggest initial concern. We got very lucky in the business world and we always loved San Diego. Once we made it here, we’re not leaving. We hate the high cost of living in San Diego but we’re staying put. No other major west coast city comes close to the amenities and personality of San Diego.

      As an ex-CPA, our current assets should carry us well into our 90s. I really hate blowing our money on the CA economy but there’s no place like home.

      • July 23, 2021 at 9:18 AM #822588
        flyer
        Participant

        That is a great story. Congratulations on your success. Although we enjoy living various places, we’ll always keep property here also, and so will our kids, for as long as we all have left on earth. Since my wife and I were actually born and raised here, there really is no place like home for us and our large extended family.

        To each his or her own regarding “beliefs,” but agree that not being of the Mormon faith, and living in Utah, could be a challenge, but for those who embrace those beliefs, it’s the perfect spot.

        We all make different choices in life for various reasons, and, as long we’re each happy with our choices, that’s what really matters. That’s why I don’t find it necessary to criticize others, just because they have made choices I would never make. In the final analysis, beliefs or no beliefs, all life on earth is temporary.

        • July 23, 2021 at 11:18 AM #822589
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Would’ve been easier to say nice story, now let me tell mine again for the 1300th time because after all it is all about me

      • July 23, 2021 at 2:10 PM #822590
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        [quote=DataAgent]My wife and I are now almost 70 years old. Back around 2018, I looked all over the west coast for a cheaper place to retire. When we discovered the strong influence of the Mormon church on the St George area, St George was was quickly removed from our list. My wife and I are very anti-organized religion. When we learned that about 75% of the permanent residents were Mormon, St George didn’t make the first cut.

        My wife and I have been married for over 45 years. We grew up over 2000 miles apart. We met in the US Air Force. From Day 1, we were planning our retirement. Our families were very poor and gave us nothing to start with. So money was our biggest initial concern. We got very lucky in the business world and we always loved San Diego. Once we made it here, we’re not leaving. We hate the high cost of living in San Diego but we’re staying put. No other major west coast city comes close to the amenities and personality of San Diego.

        As an ex-CPA, our current assets should carry us well into our 90s. I really hate blowing our money on the CA economy but there’s no place like home.[/quote]

        Imagine that! Living the place that is among the nicest spots in the country is expensive. It’s great here and only reasonable to expect that you gotta pay to play

        Currently 100 degrees in St george

    • July 23, 2021 at 5:23 PM #822592
      Coronita
      Participant

      i havent made it to st george yet, but so far my trip to the Salt Flats, West Jordan, Bryce Canyon, Zion Park has been pleasant.

      But one thing. Gas prices is not cheap here. its not as expensive as San Diego, but it certainly is not cheap. Its $4 for regular, $4.20 for mid grade, 4.30 for premium roughly .. and the other thing, i dont think the octane rating for the fuel is the same. In CA , we have 87, 89, 91 octane. In Utah its 85, 88, 91…Now given that modern day cars can run lower octane fuel by simply retarding timing…usually when that happens it also lowers fuel economy and efficiency. So the savings might not be as pronounced….how much is gas right now in SD for 87 octane?

      • July 24, 2021 at 12:27 AM #822596
        DataAgent
        Participant

        We have 2 non-Tesla EVs and an over-sized rooftop solar array. Our solar panels power our house and both of our cars. We use net-metering and pay no monthly electric bills. We net-up in November. In November of 2020, out total electric bill for the entire year of 2020 and late 2019 was $50. I’m satisfied with a $50 annual electric bill. However, there are members of my local EV Club who spend lots of time trying to get their annual electric bill as close to $0 as possible. Their Zoom presentations bore me to log-off early.

        • July 24, 2021 at 1:29 PM #822600
          Escoguy
          Participant

          [quote=DataAgent]We have 2 non-Tesla EVs and an over-sized rooftop solar array. Our solar panels power our house and both of our cars. We use net-metering and pay no monthly electric bills. We net-up in November. In November of 2020, out total electric bill for the entire year of 2020 and late 2019 was $50. I’m satisfied with a $50 annual electric bill. However, there are members of my local EV Club who spend lots of time trying to get their annual electric bill as close to $0 as possible. Their Zoom presentations bore me to log-off early.[/quote]

          I am content with the $16 per month EVTOU5 rate which powers the house/pool and two EVs plus one plug in hybrid. Solar covers the usage. The climate credit brings the annual bill down to approx $150.

          The discussion about gas prices bore me so I often go to sleep when it is discussed.

        • July 25, 2021 at 9:52 AM #822603
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=Escoguy][quote=DataAgent]We have 2 non-Tesla EVs and an over-sized rooftop solar array. Our solar panels power our house and both of our cars. We use net-metering and pay no monthly electric bills. We net-up in November. In November of 2020, out total electric bill for the entire year of 2020 and late 2019 was $50. I’m satisfied with a $50 annual electric bill. However, there are members of my local EV Club who spend lots of time trying to get their annual electric bill as close to $0 as possible. Their Zoom presentations bore me to log-off early.[/quote]

          I am content with the $16 per month EVTOU5 rate which powers the house/pool and two EVs plus one plug in hybrid. Solar covers the usage. The climate credit brings the annual bill down to approx $150.

          The discussion about gas prices bore me so I often go to sleep when it is discussed.[/quote]

          Hey I just had a business idea. A gas station with way higher prices…the surplus goes to environmental remediation causes.

          Fucking brilliant. It would be high status to gas up there. Middle of l.a. Instagram spot.

          Gas station of the stars.

          100$ a gallon. 500 a gallon for super unleaded.

          Full service though. A PhD in environmental studies cleans the windshield on your ferrari.

          Or maybe there are no pumps. Just Jerry cans. Your gas decanted by hand by a petroleum sommelier/engineer.

          An anti gas gas station. An on staff hippie protesting fracking. Some asshole kid screaming about bicycles.

          Part theatre, part gas station.

          Price it so we only need 2 customers a day…

        • July 25, 2021 at 10:41 AM #822604
          an
          Participant

          Gas station can’t stay in business selling gas. They make their money from the stuff they sell inside. It’ll probably more beneficial for you to just donate the money you would have spent on the failed business idea to your favorite environmental cause charity.

    • July 24, 2021 at 7:55 AM #822597
      Coronita
      Participant

      I do like the salt flats where you can pretty much run flatout. even in a chevy tahoe…thank god its not my car though….. beautiful place.[img_assist|nid=27431|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=600|height=400]

      Its been hot,but its been raining in the late afternoon too.

    • July 24, 2021 at 9:50 AM #822598
      The-Shoveler
      Participant

      I paid $3.95 a gal at Temecula Costco yesterday (for 87).

    • July 25, 2021 at 6:58 PM #822607
      Coronita
      Participant

      Unfortunately, we got sort of lost at the Peek-A-Boo Canyons, just as the flash flood storm moved in, and it threw the rest of our trip off by a few hours (fortunately, we didnt up as the dumb missing hikers on the 6pm news) ….so we arrived at St George pretty late in the afternoon and missed the last round of Bingo at the community center…maybe next time…
      [img_assist|nid=27434|title=hello|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=600|height=500]

      In all seriousness though, Utah is a beautiful place to hike and camp. Had a good time, especially at Zion… Definitely worth the trip.
      Next time though, i should pack a GPS and a satellite phone when going to remote places…
      The cell phone coverage understandably is spotty.

      • July 25, 2021 at 9:50 PM #822608
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        Yes very beautiful in many parts. And I hear there is a panda express there

    • July 27, 2021 at 7:23 PM #822637
      svelte
      Participant

      San Diego housing prices rose second highest in the nation.

      https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/real-estate/story/2021-07-27/san-diego-home-prices-now-up-25-in-a-year

      And if you look at the list of top rising metro areas, looks split pretty well between blue and red. I notice no trend.

      • July 27, 2021 at 11:40 PM #822642
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        Huh? The top markets are either turning blue or already blue.

        • July 28, 2021 at 7:05 AM #822644
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]Huh? The top markets are either turning blue or already blue.[/quote]

          Phoenix metro area – which is the only city with higher yoy home prices that San Diego – did indeed vote Biden in 2020 (50.1%), but it voted Trump in 2016. I think the Trump hatred is an anomaly and that Phoenix will return to red voting in 2024 (unless Trump runs).

          Dallas/FW metro area – while it is true that Dallas is very blue, Ft Worth is very red. And it is the same with this area – 50.6% Biden in 2020 but voted Trump in 2016.

          In my opinion, we’ll have to wait for another election cycle to see if they really are turning blue.

        • July 28, 2021 at 8:33 AM #822645
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          You just made my case for me. While Phoenix could come back to GOP the trend is clearly blue in what was once Goldwater country. Dallas and Texas are behind them on the curve but again the trend is clear. Whether it gets to a blue majority is irrelevant. Prices are being driven by immigration from blue states. Even if we send red folks they are far more liberal than the old time conservatives in those states and politics will shift left as we export weed smoking, socially liberal Republicans.

        • July 28, 2021 at 9:18 AM #822649
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]You just made my case for me. While Phoenix could come back to GOP the trend is clearly blue in what was once Goldwater country. Dallas and Texas are behind them on the curve but again the trend is clear. Whether it gets to a blue majority is irrelevant. Prices are being driven by immigration from blue states. Even if we send red folks they are far more liberal than the old time conservatives in those states and politics will shift left as we export weed smoking, socially liberal Republicans.[/quote]

          Actually I didn’t. You’re reading things into the move from blue states to red states. EconProf is a prime example, as are other republicans I know who are currently migrating to Arizona/Utah.

          “Whether it gets to a blue majority is irrelevant” is an amazing statement in the context of what I wrote…I said there was a mixture of red and blue cities in the list and you disagreed. Now you’re saying yeah well the red cities are more liberal now because republicans are more liberal. Apparently you are saying red = blue. Can’t disagree more.

        • July 28, 2021 at 9:44 AM #822651
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]Huh? The top markets are either turning blue or already blue.[/quote]

          This is what I said. I stand by it and your post supported it. They are blue or turning blue

          Yes guys like EP are moving but so are other more liberal, younger and non-white folks. The shift is happening in Phoenix and in Dallas

        • July 28, 2021 at 10:17 AM #822656
          svelte
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor] The shift is happening in Phoenix and in Dallas[/quote]

          Truth be told, Phoenix party registration by percentage of voters is moving away from both the Democratic and Republican parties:

          GOP, Democrats losing ground to ‘other’ in metro Phoenix voter registration

          There are still more Republicans that Democrats registered there though Republicans lost a few voters and Democrats picked up a few. “Other” is picking up the most ground and taking a bigger slice of the Phoenix voting population…the Rep and Dem shares are both dropping.

          Texas doesn’t require voters to select a political party when registering, so the Dallas/Ft Worth metro area is harder to measure.

        • July 28, 2021 at 12:57 PM #822661
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Those Phoenix numbers are minute. A few thousand voters. Arizona was reliably deep red for decades. Not any more. The non white population is growing and it has become more progressive through retirees and influx of high tech white collar professionals. There is no argument it is a more progressive than it was 20 years ago

    • July 28, 2021 at 1:12 PM #822664
      The-Shoveler
      Participant

      IMO Even California has flipped several times from blue to red and back again. Would not surprise me too much to see if flip again someday. Not every republican is white as well.

      • July 28, 2021 at 2:16 PM #822667
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        Of course over time anything could happen. And non-whites are overwhelming not republican taken as whole

        • July 28, 2021 at 3:12 PM #822668
          barnaby33
          Participant

          I’m always deeply suspect of anyone who conflates growth in Latino populations with a leftward political shift. Most Latinos are very conservative. They may have voted more liberal because of wedge issues, but for the most part their values align better with conservatives/Republicans.
          Josh

        • July 28, 2021 at 3:23 PM #822669
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          I did not specifically call out Latino but since you asked they lose votes based upon perceived racism and anit-immigration postiions in the party

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanic_and_Latino_Americans_in_politics

        • August 3, 2021 at 6:27 PM #822832
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Looks like they may hit 110 tomorrow in St George.

        • August 4, 2021 at 7:33 AM #822834
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          Indios 120. Humans live there. But how.

          I once left a bottle of wine in my car out there by mistake and it exploded.

          My new life plan is to spend every July or aug in Vermont. Maybe I need a Burlington timeshare.

        • August 5, 2021 at 2:18 PM #822887
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]Looks like they may hit 110 tomorrow in St George.[/quote]

          111.

          Money may be the least of our problems soon. The world has a fever.

          Maybe invest in water

        • February 23, 2022 at 10:03 AM #823893
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]Looks like they may hit 110 tomorrow in St George.[/quote]

          Had a friend who just took the trip through St Goerge up to ski counry in Utah and it reminded me of our old pal EP. I figured id check in to see what is doing there. Todays weather is in the 30’s all day but at least he has his conservative politics away from CA liberals and his skyrocketing home val……ooops. Looks like they have hit a little speed bump. It looks like median price is down about 4% year over year. Well he’s got his family and that is why he really went after all. Hope they are all doing well.

          https://www.redfin.com/city/16751/UT/St-George/housing-market

        • February 26, 2022 at 8:03 AM #823976
          EconProf
          Participant

          Thanks sdr for keeping this old thread alive. I still like to keep up with SD RE trends on Piggington.
          Re your comments, yes it can get cold here, and warm in the summers, although our elevation keeps us better off than nearby Vegas.
          I looked up official average St. George temperature highs and lows and rainfall for February: average daytime high 59, nighttime low 37. Brutal! 3 days with precipitation.
          For March, 68, 43, and 4 days of precipitation.
          That must account for our awful utility bills on our 2550 SF house: January water + el bill: $170.24. Gas bill: 97.28.
          In hot July, el + water = 213.19. (Combined because the City collects for both). sdr, care to tell us what your July numbers were?

        • February 26, 2022 at 10:53 AM #823978
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]Thanks sdr for keeping this old thread alive. I still like to keep up with SD RE trends on Piggington.
          Re your comments, yes it can get cold here, and warm in the summers, although our elevation keeps us better off than nearby Vegas.
          I looked up official average St. George temperature highs and lows and rainfall for February: average daytime high 59, nighttime low 37. Brutal! 3 days with precipitation.
          For March, 68, 43, and 4 days of precipitation.
          That must account for our awful utility bills on our 2550 SF house: January water + el bill: $170.24. Gas bill: 97.28.
          In hot July, el + water = 213.19. (Combined because the City collects for both). sdr, care to tell us what your July numbers were?[/quote]

          My water bill was about $40 as I have beautiful drought tolerant landscape. People take pictures of it all the time. My gas was $35. I have no electric. My solar is long paid off. My house is bigger than yours

        • February 28, 2022 at 2:43 PM #823985
          teaboy
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]My water bill was about $40 as I have beautiful drought tolerant landscape. People take pictures of it all the time. My gas was $35. I have no electric. My solar is long paid off. My house is bigger than yours[/quote]

          Sdr, how TF do you get a (monthly?) water bill of $40? Who’s palm or other bodily appendage do I need to grease to get in on that?

          I also do not have any irrigation, but my last SD water bill (2100sq SFH) was $173 bi-monthly. My Base fee & sewer fees alone were over $60/month, so I ask you.. WTF? do you have a mini desalination plant on your property and have net-metering setup for that, too?

          tb

          ____________________________________
          Service Period: 12/16/21 to 02/11/22
          Water Services
          Single Family Residential Base Fee 53.74
          Water Used 9 HCF
          Tier 1 8.00 HCF @ $5.3713 42.97
          Tier 2 1.00 HCF @ $6.0200 6.02
          Total Charge for Water Used 48.99
          Sewer & Storm Drain Services
          Sewer Base Fee 28.94
          Sewer Service Charge 39.47
          Storm Drain 1.90
          Total Current Charges 173.04

        • February 28, 2022 at 3:16 PM #823986
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Drought tolerant landscape and two in the household. That was last July but it has increased and is now about $50 due to the higher system access charges. I’m in the Olivenhain municipal water district.

        • February 28, 2022 at 3:36 PM #823987
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          You got me curious so I checked bill and I was off a little. I just have an auto payment of $50/month and once a year or so I reconcile what I owe them or skip payment. Its a bit higher this month as I had a bunch of company. My house is closer to 3K sf and my lot is 11,000 sf. I dont have those monthly sewer charges. I Checked and they are in my tax bill ($378 this year). All in it looks like we arent far off

          System Access charge $39.44
          SDCWA Infrastructure Access Charge $3.98
          Usage (4 units at $3.39) $13.56

          Total bill is $56.42

          Most recent gas bill was $87. Its much higher than last July due to higher rates and it being winter (gas heat)

        • June 17, 2022 at 10:55 AM #826167
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?

        • June 21, 2022 at 4:38 PM #826186
          EconProf
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?[/quote]
          Answer: still flocking here in big numbers, esp. from CA.
          About that weather, two factoids. We are higher in elevation than Phoenix and Las Vegas–both at about sea level–so are a bit cooler. And we have a big temperature swing between the day’s high and low. So people jog and bike ride in a.m., not mid-afternoon. Secondly, the hotter temperatures in those two big cities does not seem to be deterring Californians from moving in big numbers to those cities. Gosh, I wonder why that is?

        • June 21, 2022 at 10:52 PM #826191
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?[/quote]
          Answer: still flocking here in big numbers, esp. from CA.
          About that weather, two factoids. We are higher in elevation than Phoenix and Las Vegas–both at about sea level–so are a bit cooler. And we have a big temperature swing between the day’s high and low. So people jog and bike ride in a.m., not mid-afternoon. Secondly, the hotter temperatures in those two big cities does not seem to be deterring Californians from moving in big numbers to those cities. Gosh, I wonder why that is?[/quote]

          Big numbers? ROTFLMAO! St George is the same size as Oceanside. Demand in Vegas and Phoenix is falling much faster than here you just havent seen the numbers yet.

          Here is some data

          Inventory Y-o-Y through May in a few of the markets Californianians are alegedly fleeing to

          SD -12%
          Santa Clara +12%
          Vegas +71%
          Phoenix +101%
          Austin +140%
          Nashville +44%

          Inventory M-o-M through May in a few of the markets Californianians are alegedly fleeing to

          SD +9.5%%
          Santa Clara +31%
          Vegas +48%
          Phoenix +62%
          Austin +51%
          Nashville +44%

          Current Inventory at end of May with population in parentheses

          SD 3200 (3.3M)
          Santa Clara 1658 (1.9M)
          Vegas 4367 (2.8M)
          Phoenix 10508 (4.6M)
          Austin 4173 (1M)
          Nashville 4539 (1.3M)

          So comparatively

          Vegas about 33% more inventory despite over 15% smaller population

          Phoenix almost 250% more inventory despite only 33% bigger population

          Austin 30% more inventory with less than 1/3 the population of SD

          Nashville 40% more inventory with about 1/3 the population

          Woe is me! Data does not lie

        • June 22, 2022 at 7:25 AM #826192
          EconProf
          Participant

          sdr: I accept all your numbers, but what does it prove?
          Assuming “inventory” means houses on the market, does the inventory/population ratio predict future price trends? Or does it mean people in those cities move a lot, or existing owners want to cash in on their sudden capital gain, or the recent jump in interest rates prompts fence-sitters to try to sell and move up in the same city, or …what? I honestly don’t know.
          What counts, and is readily measured, is where people are moving from and where people are moving to. And, importantly, what kind of people. The techies that are moving from CA to Florida, Texas, Tennessee, etc. does not bode well for San Diego, which is now losing population in an absolute sense after being a refuge from LA and Bay area escapees. And what kind of people are moving TO San Diego (hint: where would you most like to be homeless?)
          Snark aside, I’m not sure what your data proves.

        • June 22, 2022 at 8:50 AM #826193
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          If it was my data Id be honored that you accept it but its from calculated risk where you can find some more. Inventory in absolute and the trend is the best leading indicator there is for pricing. It is the best most trackable measure of the balance between supply vs demand. The exact reasons dont matter and could be different each place. Its the trend which is unfavorable that matters. So what it means is those alleged CA destination markets are showing very strong signs of large price declines to come while SD continues to be perhaps the strongest market in the country.

          I included Santa Clara also as its one of the prime coastal markets and would have included LA if the data was there. I didnt include Sacto which had numbers but is more of fleeing high cost CA market and has more incommon as a place and the inventory trend is similar to LV/PHX/NVille than SD. There wasnt good FLA data but what seems to be going on there is more the great resignation/earlier than expected retirement gang then WFH crowd.

          You keep talking about CA losing population of techies but have provided nary a single data point. Its CA for chrissakes! There are and always have been people coming and going here. Its what we do here! So while we lose some techies, we birth as many or more techies on an ongoing basis. Encinitas has 2 $1B+ unicorn companies at the moment. Those were unheard of in SD just a few years ago and now we have TWO at Mayberry by the Beach! SD economically is in boom times and looks to continue the same for quite some time

          BTW at last count we have about 8400 homeless in SD. Thats a colossal tragedy for them and they seem to be mostly congregated in high profile downtown areas but in the grand scheme of things is a pretty small number and has no effect on our economy. It only makes for good fodor for right wing nut jobs who leave a place that treated them very well but prefer to take backhanded swipes on their way out the door about political climates they dont agree with

        • June 24, 2022 at 10:00 AM #826217
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          I included Santa Clara also as its one of the prime coastal markets and would have included LA if the data was there. I didnt include Sacto which had numbers but is more of fleeing high cost CA market and has more incommon as a place and the inventory trend is similar to LV/PHX/NVille than SD. There wasnt good FLA data but what seems to be going on there is more the great resignation/earlier than expected retirement gang then WFH crowd.

          [/quote]

          here

        • June 23, 2022 at 8:09 PM #826211
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?[/quote]
          Answer: still flocking here in big numbers, esp. from CA.
          About that weather, two factoids. We are higher in elevation than Phoenix and Las Vegas–both at about sea level–so are a bit cooler. And we have a big temperature swing between the day’s high and low. So people jog and bike ride in a.m., not mid-afternoon. Secondly, the hotter temperatures in those two big cities does not seem to be deterring Californians from moving in big numbers to those cities. Gosh, I wonder why that is?[/quote]

          Wonder no more! Here is what is going on in Utah!

          https://www.deseret.com/utah/2022/6/23/23180254/housing-market-us-utah-provo-price-cuts-prices-falling-bubble-crash-when-will-bubble-pop

          No market out west is weakening harder and faster than the Utah metro areas and of course St George has gotta be right there with them.

          My favorite quote in the article came at the very end!

          “The trend has started to reverse in both places, with Salt Lake City seeing a net outflow (more Redfin.com users looking to leave than move in) for the first time on record in the first quarter,” Redfin reported.

          Game, Set, Match

        • June 24, 2022 at 7:30 AM #826212
          zk
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]Never said that but keep believing I did while your rent climbs. Real estate is local. It’s different everywhere. I only care what is happening locally. What happens elsewhere? It’s not my problem
          [/quote]

          (bolding is mine)

          [quote=sdrealtor][quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?[/quote]
          Answer: still flocking here in big numbers, esp. from CA.
          About that weather, two factoids. We are higher in elevation than Phoenix and Las Vegas–both at about sea level–so are a bit cooler. And we have a big temperature swing between the day’s high and low. So people jog and bike ride in a.m., not mid-afternoon. Secondly, the hotter temperatures in those two big cities does not seem to be deterring Californians from moving in big numbers to those cities. Gosh, I wonder why that is?[/quote]

          Wonder no more! Here is what is going on in Utah!

          https://www.deseret.com/utah/2022/6/23/23180254/housing-market-us-utah-provo-price-cuts-prices-falling-bubble-crash-when-will-bubble-pop

          No market out west is weakening harder and faster than the Utah metro areas and of course St George has gotta be right there with them.

          My favorite quote in the article came at the very end!

          “The trend has started to reverse in both places, with Salt Lake City seeing a net outflow (more Redfin.com users looking to leave than move in) for the first time on record in the first quarter,” Redfin reported.

          Game, Set, Match[/quote]

          Yeah, real estate is local. Except when you use an article that has data for Provo, Salt Lake City, and Ogden (and no other places in Utah) to make a point about St. George. Sacramento is on that list, too. If someone had tried to use that to make a point about the market in San Diego, you’d be wearing out the LOL keys on your keyboard.

          dz gets kicked off, and you can’t go for more than a couple days without throwing jabs at somebody, so you dig this old thread up and use irrelevant data to claim “game, set match.” Showing your true colors, sdrealtor.

        • June 24, 2022 at 10:01 AM #826216
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Welcome back and good to see you still lurking regularly but so misguided. If my true colors are taking EP to task for throwing CA (which created great wealth for him and his family for decades) under the bus because he disagrees with it politically i’ll wear those proudly every time!

          If you took the time to actually read you’d see I mentioned Sacto earlier and specifically why I did not include it as it bears a lot more in common with places like UT, Id, AZ, TN, LV etc than SoCal or the Bay Area.

          Those 3 Utah MSA’s make up well over 80% of the population of UT and are very representative of what is happening all over Utah including St George which is just too small to be followed by the major data collectors. The entire SG metro is no bigger than Oceanside and I’d bet $$ to donuts it will follow what is happening in the rest of the reported UT areas as there is no industry to support what has happened there with RE

          As for this thread and EP this thread stays active and pops up regularly. I have no issue with his moving there and think he did it for great reasons. ive told him countless times. He moved there to be around his kids and grandkids. Thats a great reason and Ive told him over and over I hope he enjoys them. where we divurge is perpetual attacks on CA wihtou ever bringing a single data point…ever. He just rolls out his lazy political nonsense when he feels like taking a jab that at the place that made him what he is.

          I wish EP nothing but well and sincerely hope he’s enjoying the heck out of life there and watching his grandchildren grow

        • June 24, 2022 at 5:52 PM #826219
          zk
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          Welcome back and good to see you still lurking regularly

          [/quote]

          You assume I lurk regularly. You make a lot of erroneous assumptions.

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          If my true colors are taking EP to task for throwing CA (which created great wealth for him and his family for decades) under the bus because he disagrees with it politically i’ll wear those proudly every time!

          [/quote]

          Ha! No, your true colors aren’t taking EP to task for throwing CA under the bus. Your true colors are claiming “game, set match” with nothing to back it up, and being condescending and disputatious while you’re doing it.

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          If you took the time to actually read you’d see I mentioned Sacto earlier and specifically why I did not include it as it bears a lot more in common with places like UT, Id, AZ, TN, LV etc than SoCal or the Bay Area.

          [/quote]

          Again, an erroneous assumption (that I didn’t see you’d mentioned Sacramento earlier). You say real estate is local. You bust that out frequently when somebody tries to use non-local data to make a point. Encinitas is not Escondido. But St. George is the same as Salt Lake City? Is real estate not local anymore?

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          Those 3 Utah MSA’s make up well over 80% of the population of UT and are very representative of what is happening all over Utah including St George which is just too small to be followed by the major data collectors.

          [/quote]

          A bold and quite possibly erroneous assumption. Yet stated as fact. Do you think nobody notices that? Or are you so high on your opinions that you think of them as facts?

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          The entire SG metro is no bigger than Oceanside and I’d bet $$ to donuts it will follow what is happening in the rest of the reported UT areas as there is no industry to support what has happened there with RE

          [/quote]

          The entire of the SG metro area is no bigger than Oceanside, but you’d still bet that the same thing is happening there as is happening in a much larger metro area (Salt Lake City) 300 miles away? And you’re giving odds, too? You are certainly free to make that wager. But it doesn’t fly to claim “game, set and match” based on zero data for St. George and nothing but leading indicators from a much larger metro area clear across the state.

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          As for this thread and EP this thread stays active and pops up regularly.

          [/quote]

          Ok, if 4 months with no activity is “active.”

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          where we divurge is perpetual attacks on CA wihtou ever bringing a single data point[/quote]

          Given that you’re taking jabs at St. George without a single data point, I’d say the word you were looking for wasn’t “divurge” but “converge.”

          You know, if you’d said, “there’s a general trend of leading indicators going in the wrong direction in areas similar to St. George, so it’s possible or maybe likely that St. George will see a downturn soon,” that would be one thing. An argument could be made that it might even be reasonable, even though it goes against your beloved trope that “real estate is local.” But, no, you come out with “game, set match.” Again, your true colors. Claiming victories not won. Being condescending. Tooting your own horn and not hearing that your horn sounds off-key and raspy.

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          Back on ignore list you go[/quote]

          [quote=zk]

          Oh, no! You’re going to ignore me! What shall I ever do without your attention?!

          Oh, wait, never mind. If I actually gave a damn, I wouldn’t need to worry. You won’t ignore me. You’re not capable of it.[/quote]

          Well, you lasted for about two of my posts before you couldn’t resist. Can’t say I didn’t see that coming!

        • June 25, 2022 at 10:08 AM #826221
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          More drivel. You are clutching at pearls. EP and his anti CA rhetoric is about people fleeing here and the red state destinations continuing to boom. What is happening in the 3 msa’s of UT is happening south of SG in vegas. And in Nashville and in Idaho and in Phoenix. He provides no data just platitudes which ironically seem to fly in the face of your leaning as well. Based upon your comments re dz it’s clear this was not a one time fly by. No one believes your bs that you’re not following closer than you want to admit. If you went to contribute something meaningful to our real estate discussion please have at it. The last couple years you did participate it was almost exclusively political ranting of which there are plenty of other places to do that. We are all big boys and girls here. If you prefer taking jabs feel free as well

        • June 25, 2022 at 11:05 AM #826223
          zk
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          More drivel.

          [/quote]

          You’re unable to refute (or even address) any of my points with data. I guess there’s really nothing for you to do but come back with “more drivel.” Weak.

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          You are clutching at pearls.

          [/quote]

          Either you don’t know what that phrase means, or your comprehension is very poor.

          From the Cambridge dictionary: “to behave as if you are very shocked, especially when you show more shock than you really feel in order to show that you think something is morally bad.”

          I’m not “very shocked.” I’m not shocked at all. I’m not even surprised. You’re making claims not based on data, and you’re being a jackass. I’m pointing those things out. No shock involved.

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          EP and his anti CA rhetoric is about people fleeing here and the red state destinations continuing to boom. What is happening in the 3 msa’s of UT is happening south of SG in vegas. And in Nashville and in Idaho and in Phoenix. He provides no data just platitudes
          [/quote]

          You’re making claims about St. George with zero data about St. George. And being a jackass doing it. That’s what I’m saying, and so far you have been unable to refute any of that.

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          which ironically seem to fly in the face of your leaning as well.

          [/quote]

          If by that you mean that I disagree with EP’s opinions about California, I do (in general). What do my opinions of EP’s opinions about California have to do with whether or not you’re making data-supported arguments about the St. George real estate market?

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          Based upon your comments re dz it’s clear this was not a one time fly by.

          [/quote]

          I didn’t say it was a one-time flyby. I said you made an erroneous assumption about me “lurking regularly.” In any case, with a single visit to the forum it would be easy to see that dz got kicked off and that a couple days later you dug up an old thread and started being a jackass to someone else.

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          No one believes your bs that you’re not following closer than you want to admit.

          [/quote]

          Ha! You probably really do believe that you speak for everyone. Get over yourself, man!

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          If you went to contribute something meaningful to our real estate discussion please have at it.

          [/quote]

          I think that pointing out that you make claims without data and that you are gratuitously noxious is contributing to the discussion.

          —–

          Man, too bad that whole “ignore” thing isn’t working out for you.

        • June 25, 2022 at 11:30 AM #826225
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          I got rid of my ignore list a while back. Thanks for contributing. Look forward to more.

        • June 18, 2022 at 9:11 AM #826177
          Myriad
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]
          System Access charge $39.44
          SDCWA Infrastructure Access Charge $3.98
          Usage (4 units at $3.39) $13.56

          Total bill is $56.42
          [/quote]

          Wait, so you have no sewer charge? or you have a septic system?
          My fixed charges alone are $112.

        • June 18, 2022 at 11:03 AM #826180
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=Myriad][quote=sdrealtor]
          System Access charge $39.44
          SDCWA Infrastructure Access Charge $3.98
          Usage (4 units at $3.39) $13.56

          Total bill is $56.42
          [/quote]

          Wait, so you have no sewer charge? or you have a septic system?
          My fixed charges alone are $112.[/quote]

          Recent bill was $58 and no sewer charge on water here. We are Leucadia Waste Water district and have a $378 annual charge on tax bill

          FWIW my tax bill is about $7200. Thats $5600 based upon assessed value, $800 mello roos which should go away in several years, the roughly $400 sewer charge and another $400 or so of miscellaneous charges and bonds

        • June 18, 2022 at 6:27 PM #826181
          gzz
          Participant

          The problem with investing in St George RE isn’t any lack of water. This is such a tiresome worry. Western states waste most of their water on low-value agricultural in a bizarre system where wasteful farms pay far less than residential or industrial users.

          Any real water shortage would result in residential users who are a large majority of the population outbidding agricultural users. But we actually won’t have any water shortages, this is just Chicken Little propaganda by major water users eager for even more state subsidies.

          In a free market for water, Western state residential water bills would decrease substantially. The “cost” would be, e.g., on Chinese consumers who wouldn’t get our almond exports quite so cheaply, and the ultrarich owners of farms that get water subsidies.

          St George’s issue is low density small metro suburban housing in middle America deprecates over time and trends downscale, and there’s always ample developable land to build newer and nicer housing. I don’t think his Utah RE is going to be a disaster for EP, but it will probably return over a 20 year period roughly inflation minus 1%.

        • June 19, 2022 at 12:11 PM #826183
          barnaby33
          Participant

          Any real water shortage would result in residential users who are a large majority of the population outbidding agricultural users. But we actually won’t have any water shortages, this is just Chicken Little propaganda by major water users eager for even more state subsidies.

          In a free market for water, Western state residential water bills would decrease substantially. The “cost” would be, e.g., on Chinese consumers who wouldn’t get our almond exports quite so cheaply, and the ultrarich owners of farms that get water subsidies.

          We have a real water shortage. California grows 50% of Americas fruit and veg. So what you are really stating is that in a free market, we’d all have plenty of residential water (more expensive than now but not horribly so) at the expense of fresh fruits and veg a lot of the year. That’s cutting off your nose to spite your face. Yes the Chinese should pay more for almonds, and agricultural water should be more expensive with the explicit social goal of moving us towards perma culture, but be careful what you wish for.
          Josh

        • June 18, 2022 at 9:13 AM #826178
          Myriad
          Participant

          *dup

        • February 26, 2022 at 8:23 AM #823977
          EconProf
          Participant

          Now about our RE…hard to accept Redfin’s claim our home prices are down 3% YOY, since all other reports say 20% or so. Could be because Redfin does not hold constant the size or quality of homes sold. So more small houses or condos would yield that misleading figure.
          I can only speak for my own experience of moving last April into our new house for $556,000. Am now refinancing and the appraisal came in at $730,000. The refi will enable me to add to my stock of rental condos (3 currently).
          PS: our house price was set in the previous July, so appreciation was not as large as it appears.

        • February 26, 2022 at 9:43 AM #823979
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf]Now about our RE…hard to accept Redfin’s claim our home prices are down 3% YOY, since all other reports say 20% or so. Could be because Redfin does not hold constant the size or quality of homes sold. So more small houses or condos would yield that misleading figure.
          I can only speak for my own experience of moving last April into our new house for $556,000. Am now refinancing and the appraisal came in at $730,000. The refi will enable me to add to my stock of rental condos (3 currently).
          PS: our house price was set in the previous July, so appreciation was not as large as it appears.[/quote]

          Stats are stats. As you noted your price was set two years ago and it appears the appreciation happened the first year. Also you bought new, how much more did you spend to get it move in ready. I’d guess about $50k but may be more or less

          Liquidating all your San Diego real estate 2 to 3 years ago has likely already cost you well over $1 million. But you do get the joy of living in a red state while we suffer in a prosperous blue state. My next-door neighbor made a similar choice and thought he made a killing. He left in June and his house has already gone up around 400 K. Such is life. I hope you are enjoying the time with your family. It has come at a very high price but those years are priceless and you can’t get time back

        • February 26, 2022 at 4:16 PM #823980
          EconProf
          Participant

          sdr, you are usually pretty good with math, but a few corrections are in order.
          July of 2020 was more like a year and a half ago, not two. So our appreciation rate was about 20% per year, in line with most all the RE reports on St. George houses.
          No I did not sell my San Diego RE investments 2-3 years ago…more like twelve years ago, investing in AZ. Yep, it would have done better if left in San Diego, but not by much.
          The new house we moved into last April did not require any money to be move-in ready as the developer (Brio) gave us so many choices and optional add-ons, costing about 50K but included in the $556,000 price.
          Back to the bigger picture, CA has the highest unemployment rate 7.7% (BLS, December), and Utah second lowest (1.9%), with St. George the lowest in Utah. Utah has the 2d fastest population growth and CA is losing population faster than all states except NY and IL. I’m guessing the politics of each state is a major factor. Incidentally, our property taxes are about one-half of one percent, so moving to a better house with better government cut our taxes paid by about 80%. Income taxes, likewise.
          Congrats on your low utility bills, but let’s not ignore the $20,000 to $40,000 you probably spent to put in solar.
          As you and I have previously pointed out, SD is benefitting from people moving from the two other worse-governed coastal California metropolitan areas who still want to stay near the ocean. With employers fleeing CA to other western states, I’m not sure how long that will prop up San Diego prices.

        • February 26, 2022 at 5:35 PM #823981
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          That’s great that the market is so strong there the builder throws in upgrades worth $50k and you didn’t have to pay to landscape your own property. Here I’m down and out California if you’re unlucky enough to be one of the few on the waiting list to get a house all they throw in is thanks for coming. And nice of you to omit the 4.2% unemployment rate here which is rapidly dropping. I did not omit the cost of my solar I said it was long since paid off which means that it has already paid for itself and is returning the equivalent of close to $4000 in savings every year.

          EP your math skills are usually good also. But I’m going to have to correct something because you did not compound that return. If it was 20% over two years compounded twice it would now be worth over 800 which as you said it is not. It’s actually more like 15%.

          While our markets are appreciating 30% so it’s not even close to what we are getting. If you had what we had you would be close to 950k. And our taxes are a very small price to pay for that appreciation. Over the last two years My average weekly appreciation has been more than my annual tax bill. My taxes are about 1/3rd of 1% of my current value due to prop 13.

          Unlike Utah we are constantly birthing new unicorn tech companies and now even have them in small towns like Encinitas. The blue line on the trolley opened and ridership is soaring. They just opened 9 more miles of car pool lanes on the 5 freeway last week with more coming. Things are absolutely blossoming here and there looks to be no retreat in sight.

        • February 28, 2022 at 8:45 AM #823982
          Coronita
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]That’s great that the market is so strong there the builder throws in upgrades worth $50k and you didn’t have to pay to landscape your own property. Here I’m down and out California if you’re unlucky enough to be one of the few on the waiting list to get a house all they throw in is thanks for coming. And nice of you to omit the 4.2% unemployment rate here which is rapidly dropping. I did not omit the cost of my solar I said it was long since paid off which means that it has already paid for itself and is returning the equivalent of close to $4000 in savings every year.

          EP your math skills are usually good also. But I’m going to have to correct something because you did not compound that return. If it was 20% over two years compounded twice it would now be worth over 800 which as you said it is not. It’s actually more like 15%.

          While our markets are appreciating 30% so it’s not even close to what we are getting. If you had what we had you would be close to 950k. And our taxes are a very small price to pay for that appreciation. Over the last two years My average weekly appreciation has been more than my annual tax bill. My taxes are about 1/3rd of 1% of my current value due to prop 13.

          Unlike Utah we are constantly birthing new unicorn tech companies and now even have them in small towns like Encinitas. The blue line on the trolley opened and ridership is soaring. They just opened 9 more miles of car pool lanes on the 5 freeway last week with more coming. Things are absolutely blossoming here and there looks to be no retreat in sight.[/quote]

          That new I-5 northbound opening is awesome. Same with the UCSD trolley.

        • February 28, 2022 at 10:17 AM #823983
          an
          Participant

          [quote=Coronita]
          That new I-5 northbound opening is awesome. Same with the UCSD trolley.[/quote]
          Now, if they can finish the North Bound through OSide and open the South bound. But it seems like they’re already 2 steps behind since there’s still a ton of traffic. Should have followed Orange County and what they did w/ the 405 in Irvine.

        • February 28, 2022 at 12:47 PM #823984
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Traffic seems better to me but gotta be due to COVID also. The construction is causing delays also. On a weekend it can take me 30 minutes to get from S Carlsbad to 78 due to it. Looking forward to that section getting completed. Should go much quicker as much straighter except between Cannon and Tamarack

    • August 5, 2021 at 3:31 PM #822888
      gzz
      Participant

      I just did invest in western us water rights. VWTR.

      Very speculative small-cap co so i kept it to 300 shares.

    • June 17, 2022 at 12:05 PM #826169
      XBoxBoy
      Participant

      Watched an interesting Netflix show, “Keep Sweet: Pray and Obey”, about the FLDS and their ties to St George Utah. Made me wonder if EconProf has any ties to them.

    • June 26, 2022 at 7:20 AM #826226
      Coronita
      Participant

      Well, if it makes any difference, our long term tenant from the Bay Area just gave us notice that he will be moving out in August/Sept. Says he plans on moving to a place where he can afford a decent house and work remotely.

      I might suggest San Diego and/or Utah.

      • June 26, 2022 at 3:55 PM #826227
        EconProf
        Participant

        Some observations from the above comments. My purpose has been to use demographic trends and population flows to predict RE values. My hope is to share information that may be useful to other Piggs in their decision- making. sdr and some others disagree and have their own data points and claim, wrongly, that I’ve put out no facts.
        sdr claims, correctly, that St. George/Washington City is the size of Oceanside. So what? Question: is Oceanside growing? I honestly don’t know–but our area is thriving by every measure: unemployment, rents, RE prices, clean government, etc. We have a new area called Tech Ridge which is the incubator for many new firms. Our Utah Technical University grew 10% per year throughout COVID, while other university enrollments, on average, continue to shrink, perhaps because employers have learned to stay away from their “woke” agendas.
        Final comment, I thought this whole subject had exhausted itself and was long gone. In fact, the last entry was February 28 of this year, and then it died a natural death. That is until sdr revived it months later with a criticism of our weather. That got the ball rolling again, including, quoting sdr “…As for this thread & EP this thread stays active & pops up regularly”. Uh, no, unless you keep reviving it.

        • June 26, 2022 at 11:28 PM #826228
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          I have yet to see those facts just sweeping anecdotes. Can you share actual data? The kind with numbers. Would love to see it because the data Ive shared tells a different story. The story it tells is that every market surrounding St George is starting to shift dramatically in a way the coastal CA markets are not. And while Id be the first to admit that St George could still grow and prosper despite those markets deteriorating quickly they do a much better job of telling the story of an alleged CA exodus. They do so much better than little SG ever could and that story is the whole point of this exercise.

          I dont doubt that your market has been growing over the last 2 years by those measures you mention despite you not sharing actual data points. That has been the case pretty much everywhere in the country until recently. UCSD has grown more than 10% during the pandemic! I would venture to guess that its growth is bigger than the total enrollment of that school you mentioned. Feel free to correct me but is this the school you mentioned? the one with 7200 students?

          https://www.niche.com/colleges/utah-tech-university/

          However, things out in the world are shifting fast. What the data sources Ive put out show are the first things available on the RE market and the trends are unmistakable.

          As for the subject, here’s what prods me to revisit it as I did several months ago. Its kinda funny but I added SG to the cities on my cell phone weather app when this all started. Every once in a while I scroll through them all and when I saw temps in SG well over 100 it made me chuckle and I posted about that. Then last week another poster forwarded me an article about the RE markets taking the hardest and fastest falls of which 3 of the top 10 are in Utah. That presented an opportunity to challege the unsubtantiated claims again

          The whole alleged CA exodus is a phenomena that has always interested me. I’ve been here almost 30 years and it seems the media rolls out that story every year or two. Somehow we keep growing and booming economically in CA leading the way in our great nation despite all these premature calls. If we go back to the beginning where you admit selling out of SD over a decade ago and switching to AZ where you did not do as well as you would have had you just left it in SD. That has only amplified since this thread began. While you still try to claim we are falling apart here, you have pretty much admitted that the best thing you could have done with your SD investments would have been not to touch them. You are speaking from your red beating heart not your head. This thread presents another opportunity for me to follow and debunk that theory as i have been the last 2 decades.

        • June 27, 2022 at 7:12 PM #826229
          EconProf
          Participant

          “…alleged CA exodus…”
          Your words.
          Say no more. That’s all we need to know about your “data”.

        • June 27, 2022 at 7:44 PM #826230
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          I bring actual data from independent sources over and over again . You bring nothing but lazy rhetoric. The “alleged CA mass exodus” (I should have included MASS as it is the key part of that statement, my mistake) I write of is the case the media trots out every year or two that companies and people are leaving en masse. Like you they throw out a company or two but never mention the regular stream of world changing companies costantly being created and the influx of the best and brightest from all over the country and the world migrating here. Companies have been leaving here for a long time. Its an expensive place to live and work. It always has been. This is not a place to operate big comapnies, its a place to create new ideas and companies. Those inevitably get sold off and moved to lower cost locales which is how its pretty much always been in SD. People have been crawling back to other places from here because they couldnt make it for a very long time. This is not an easy place to make it and never was. If this was a basketball league it would be the NBA.

          And of course no mention of the FACT that the best thing ou could have done is just keep all your SD real estate rather than taking them to other less profitable places.

          Still waiting on that data. Would welcome and love to see it.

        • June 28, 2022 at 1:27 PM #826231
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          No abortions in Utah.

          Clean gummint.

          It’s difficult for me not to be biased and think abortion trigger law states aren’t largely populated by assholes.

          One can imagine a scenario where EPs daughter in law has a difficult pregnancy, docs are scared of liability to do an abortion, and she is in mortal peril, or a grandchild in HS is date raped but is too embarrassed or fearful to file a police report and can’t qualify for a rape exception abortion, and EP comes crawling back to CA to save a life or get rid of rapey spawn.

          Sure, liberals are tolerable when you absolutely need a fetus removed, but the rest of the time, better to be around the maga faithful. Get in, get your fetus murdered, get out…

    • June 28, 2022 at 3:36 PM #826234
      flyer
      Participant

      Although finances were not EP’s primary reason for moving, I can definitely understand the lure of other locations for many, because, as mentioned, it’s definitely true that CA is an expensive place to live.

      Per recent stats, among those deciding to stay, and especially among younger people, about 60% are living paycheck-to-paycheck, even among high wage earners, with credit card debt higher than in many decades, and little hope of ever owning a home in the Golden State without family or other support.

      Hopefully, those who can’t afford to stay won’t roll the dice in CA too long, allowing rent and other expenses to erode their earnings, because that doesn’t bode well for an early, or stable retirement.

      • June 28, 2022 at 4:26 PM #826235
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        Data is clear and has long been the trend. Those that leave are predominately lower income than those arriving here.

        One interesting thing I’m starting to read about is the potential for large companies to come to CA to get away from abortion bans and crazy red state politics. Newsom is already rolling out the welcome mat

        Its inevitable we’ll see one soon if only to make a political statement much like Musk did moving hdqtrs to TX while expanding OPS in CA

        • June 29, 2022 at 9:52 AM #826237
          flyer
          Participant

          Yes, we’ve seen that trend in the many years our families have been in CA, and it seems to have escalated in recent years among various income groups. The evolution of CA on many levels may have caught some people off guard, especially when it comes to the extreme escalation in the cost of housing for themselves and for their children. Many do not want to be forever renters, or to live communally with their families for the rest of their lives, so they’ve decided to make a change.

          As natives, we’re definitely not fans of everything that is going on in CA, but we’re also not about to let any negative aspects, as we perceive them, prevent us from enjoying and thriving in the state we and our families plan to continue to call home for a very long time.

        • June 29, 2022 at 11:19 AM #826238
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          I hate it here but I’m pretty sure I’d hate it way more everywhere else. So, I guess that means I like it here.

        • June 29, 2022 at 2:00 PM #826240
          The-Shoveler
          Participant

          [quote=scaredyclassic]I hate it here but I’m pretty sure I’d hate it way more everywhere else. So, I guess that means I like it here.[/quote]

          LOL

        • June 29, 2022 at 2:33 PM #826241
          The-Shoveler
          Participant

          dup

        • June 29, 2022 at 4:33 PM #826242
          flyer
          Participant

          There are a lot of places in CA I wouldn’t want to live either–so I understand that–but if you just don’t care for CA in general, I’d definitely try to find a place that has more of what appeals to you. Life is too short to live in a place you hate.

        • June 29, 2022 at 4:41 PM #826243
          Hobie
          Participant

          There are a lot of new grads trying to get started with a family. Even with dual incomes the high cost of housing in SD is tough for them to get started.

          Alternatives out of state are looking good as they can swing a house on one income so the other spouse can be a stay at home parent.

          I appreciate EP’s continued input.

        • June 29, 2022 at 4:44 PM #826244
          flyer
          Participant

          Totally agree, Hobie. I have always felt that everyone should do what’s best for their particular situation. There is no one-size-fits-all in life.

        • June 29, 2022 at 4:50 PM #826245
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          Wherever you go, there you are.

        • June 29, 2022 at 5:01 PM #826246
          flyer
          Participant

          That is so true. Probably why we’re happy exactly where we are.

        • June 29, 2022 at 9:25 PM #826247
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=Hobie]There are a lot of new grads trying to get started with a family. Even with dual incomes the high cost of housing in SD is tough for them to get started.

          Alternatives out of state are looking good as they can swing a house on one income so the other spouse can be a stay at home parent.

          I appreciate EP’s continued input.[/quote]

          Absolutely this is a tough place for someone just starting out. Having a family makes it even tougher. Having grown up in a nice home and having high expectations even tougher in an area like this where almost everyone makes compromises in their housing at all ages and income levels. People leaving for those reasons are making decisions in the best interest of their families. Being financially responsible is very important to having stability in one’s life and home

        • June 29, 2022 at 1:00 PM #826239
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=flyer]Yes, we’ve seen that trend in the many years our families have been in CA, and it seems to have escalated in recent years among various income groups. The evolution of CA on many levels may have caught some people off guard, especially when it comes to the extreme escalation in the cost of housing for themselves and for their children. Many do not want to be forever renters, or to live communally with their families for the rest of their lives, so they’ve decided to make a change.

          As natives, we’re definitely not fans of everything that is going on in CA, but we’re also not about to let any negative aspects, as we perceive them, prevent us from enjoying and thriving in the state we and our families plan to continue to call home for a very long time.[/quote]

          Good attitude. While it may or may not be the case with EP, behind their claims of liberal politics almost every case Ive seen of people leaving was really financial. People that havent saved properly to retire or that cant keep up with the COL here. There is no shame in that, When we all came to CA everyone of us knew what we were getting ourselves into. Those who were born here know even moreso what we all sign up for living here. Most of the political rantings from my experience is sour grapes

    • July 11, 2022 at 8:50 AM #826315
      anxvariety
      Participant

      Rent a hotel in a cheap area for a few months, the collapse is nigh. Wondering why there was the impulse to pay over ask? Greed’s impulse to boost neighboring comps to facilitate a pathological appetite for more leverage.

      • July 11, 2022 at 1:14 PM #826317
        sdrealtor
        Participant

        Typically takes longer than you think for declines to come. Gonna take more than a few months

        • July 11, 2022 at 2:36 PM #826318
          scaredyclassic
          Participant

          It’s like a super slow motion car wreck. Or maybe slo motion and nothing happens

        • July 11, 2022 at 4:15 PM #826320
          The-Shoveler
          Participant

          IMO FED raises 75 points in July, the whole shebang goes.

          LOL I guess well see if my theory holds that TPTB will reverse course in a heartbeat once the whole thing starts falling apart.

        • July 11, 2022 at 4:23 PM #826321
          an
          Participant

          [quote=The-Shoveler]IMO FED raises 75 points in July, the whole shebang goes.

          LOL I guess well see if my theory holds that TPTB will reverse course in a heartbeat once the whole thing starts falling apart.[/quote]
          https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart rate goes up much slower than it coming down. If it all fall apart in a few months, I can see we’ll be back to near 0% by this time next year.

        • July 11, 2022 at 5:48 PM #826322
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [img_assist|nid=27686|title=Inventory compared to 2019|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=77]

          The market is expecting 50-75 basis points and it’s largely baked into rates. We also have different market dynamics at work different places. Boise and the like for example were ripe with investors and speculators. Around here we are still just over half of where we were in 2019. Inventory growth seems to be slowing here from my tracking but we’ll know better in another 4-6 weeks

        • July 11, 2022 at 7:25 PM #826324
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Crested 110 today in SG

        • July 11, 2022 at 8:38 PM #826325
          EconProf
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]Crested 110 today in SG[/quote]
          sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America’s fastest growing big city.
          Hmmm…what city would that be?
          And where are all those people coming from?

        • July 11, 2022 at 8:58 PM #826326
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          [quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Crested 110 today in SG[/quote]
          sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America’s fastest growing big city.
          Hmmm…what city would that be?
          And where are all those people coming from?[/quote]

          Guess my weather service was off a degree or two. Must’ve been a nice respite. Did you break out your down jackets?

        • July 12, 2022 at 12:38 PM #826339
          EconProf
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor][quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Crested 110 today in SG[/quote]
          sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America’s fastest growing big city.
          Hmmm…what city would that be?
          And where are all those people coming from?[/quote]

          Guess my weather service was off a degree or two. Must’ve been a nice respite. Did you break out your down jackets?[/quote]

          Answer 1: Phoenix
          Answer 2: California

          Conclusion: People are voting with their feet.

        • July 12, 2022 at 1:38 PM #826343
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          They sure are! Here’s some fun actual data which EP seems to be allergic to using

          New Listings Year over Year in June

          Santa Clara -22%
          San Diego – 12%

          Phoenix

          [img_assist|nid=27687|title=Phx inventory|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1061|height=660]

          [img_assist|nid=27686|title=Inventory compared to 2019|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=781|height=600]

        • July 13, 2022 at 3:00 PM #826361
          EconProf
          Participant

          Thanks for the data sdr, I will concede that you indeed have access to more data than I do.
          Not sure what an inventory increase says about future appreciation or population growth vs. decline though. It could be the exploding population of Phoenix simply means more people are younger and moving around while San Diegans are more settled in their abode.
          I do recall seeing several sources claiming Phoenix appreciation rates are very high–maybe you can enlighten us on that data.
          After that, perhaps it is time to let this thread die a natural death. Its over a year and a half old, nine pages long, and all sides have presented their data.
          For the record, I am fully aware of the charms of San Diego, and not just the weather. I was blessed financially by the RE appreciation rates, but I also worked my butt off prepping vacancies for the next tenant, some of whom had a big-screen TV way before my family.
          I’ll abstain from further commenting unless I really feel the urge…meaning I overindulge in wine some night.

        • July 13, 2022 at 4:20 PM #826362
          sdrealtor
          Participant

          Phoenix was #1 in appreciation though just above SD. It was due to rampant speculation and investors. That was not the case here. That unwinding and there is still massive amounts of undeveloped land. Long term i think Phoenix will be fine it just got way ahead of itself. As for data there is tons of available and while i don’t have any for your area i can’t imagine there aren’t local stats published in your local fish wrap.

          As for wine in 100+ degrees id suggest a crisp French sauv blanc or rose or perhaps an albarino. Stay away from the reds until Fall. I’m off to Napa and Sonoma in the early morning myself to enjoy all things good.

          Cheers and feel free to stop by and comment as you like. This is a good thread for following the red state destination markets for those who can’t or don’t want to stay here

          Hope all is well with the family. Cheers

        • July 12, 2022 at 9:06 AM #826334
          The-Shoveler
          Participant

          [quote=sdrealtor]

          The market is expecting 50-75 basis points and it’s largely baked into rates.
          [/quote]

          We will see I guess,
          IMO 75 basis points would be the straw that broke the back of the economy.

          FED moving way too fast IMO, I hope they know what they are doing else my theory will get tested LOL.

    • July 13, 2022 at 5:07 PM #826363
      The-Shoveler
      Participant

      So now the bets are fed to raise 100 bases points in July meeting.

      Wow I think they will find themselves reversing course very fast IMO ( well if my theory holds anyway LOL)

    • July 13, 2022 at 11:51 PM #826364
      flyer
      Participant

      EP, as I’ve said before, the nice thing about your situation is that you did the SoCal thing longer than most people ever will, and now, I’m sure, you can probably live wherever you choose, anytime you choose, just as we can.

      Along with many of our business interests, we have family and friends all over CA, and elsewhere, but the majority are in CA, including our kids, so, for us, continuing to live here most of the time makes the most sense.

      I talk to people all of the time who, for numerous reasons, admit they are stuck wherever they are, and couldn’t make a change–even if their lives depended on it–even some in CA. Others dreamed of living in CA, but weren’t able to make their dreams a reality for many years, so they feel they missed out on living their dreams when they were young, which is really sad.

      None of the above apply to you, so, you’ve already won, and even though SG is different, the fact that you have chosen where you want to be at this time in your life doesn’t need to be defended, but, simply, enjoyed.