Mira Mesa Monitor

[sdrealtor]

Im going to start tracking the SFR market here as it seems more of a bellweather and is very interesting. Early 2020 the starter 3BR homes were low to mid 600’s but by late Summer market was low to mid 700’s with every decent home hotly contested. The majority of the homes were built around the same time, around the same size by Pardee. Its as homogenous a market I can think of for SFR’s with differences mostly attributable to which of the 4 quadrants it falls in and even more so lot size.

Ive got a bunch of friends and past clients there so lets start following it and see where it goes in the land of too many walls and lizards

[sdrealtor]

So we are starting out in a red hot market with low inventory, multiple offers and most homes sell week one.

New listings 6

New Pendings 11

Thats -5 a sign that this is a very strong market with as low inventory is here

Closed sales at 4

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 7 with median price of $780K. That feels slightly above the median sales price which Id guess would be more around 725K ish. It also speaks to the homogenuity of MM. There really isnt not much in the way of a high end here. Its pretty much all the same in a very narrow range.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. The uptick in listings should have started and along with the next two will give us a good glimpse as to how the Spring season will go. Lets see what we got.

New listings 7 – hoped for more but comparatively not as low as on the coast.

New Pendings of 5 – buyers still out there!

Thats +2

Closed sales at 9

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 10 with median price of $750K. That feels just over median sales price. Im thinking once old timers see current price levels we should see more inventory. That would keep this market more balanced than the coast but no guarantees. This is a very strong/stable market. Looking forward to seeing where it goes.

[an]

The number is much worst if you add 2 car garage and a minimum lot of 4500 sq-ft. I’m only seeing 4 properties.

[gzz]

Mira Mesa in Nov 2011, just as prices started to go vertical: 129 houses and 87 condos, versus 7 and 9 right now.

In the Nov 2011 inventory, there were a dozen condos under 100k, and zero houses listed above 500k. The most expensive house was 7990 Hollow Mesa Ct, a 5 bedroom that eventually sold for $495k.

Showing how low end condos were the best performers, the cheapest late 2011 condo in Mira Mesa was 9534 Carroll Canyon Rd APT 128, listed at 86k, now with a Zestimate of $327k, making it nearly a 4-bagger. The Hollow Mesa Ct. 5-bedroom house hasn’t even doubled.

[sdrealtor]

Low end condos were definitely the best performers appreciation wise but its not that simple. I’ll explain.

Bought one in NP in late 2010 for $85K. Back then the low end condo complexes were mostly under distress and things had to be bought all cash. Put a tenant in at slightly below market and never raised rent. She stayed until late 2015. When she left, I did a $30K remodel and sold it for $250K in early 2016. Right now its worth around 330K.

Early 2013, helped client buy a short sale in MM for $380K that they were renting. They put zero down with local credit union. Their place is now worth mid 700’s.

My return on investment was well over 100%. Their return was infinite as they could finance the whole thing, had no moving costs and payment was similar to rent.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Its not getting beter.

New listings 6 – no relief here unlike the coast which is at least seeing some additional inventory hit the market.

New Pendings of 11 – gonna be tough to match this next week unless we get inventoyr

Thats -5

Closed sales at 4

Price reductions at 0. Why bother

Current inventory at 8 with median price of $867K. That was a big jump. Its basically the end of below 700K houses outside of unusual situations. I wonder if we will see 800’s this year for the typcal 3/2 MM house. would not surprise me.

Cmon old timers! Its time to move on! Max profitz available!

This doesnt seem to be going anywhere but up

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Its not getting beter.

New listings 6 – coming on slowly, send more!

New Pendings of 4 – as expected wasnt much to buy

Thats +2

Closed sales at 6

Price reductions at 1. Zzzzzzz….

Current inventory at 13 with median price of $760K. Back to a more typical median price

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Its not getting better here either.

New listings 8 –

New Pendings of 12 –

Thats -4

Closed sales at 9

Price reductions at 2. A couple aimed too high

Current inventory at 10 with median price of $770K. Back to a more typical median price

MM should see a $1M sale this year. Getting closer. Wouldnt be surprised to see the standard 3/2 1300ish SF homes hit 800K

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=sdrealtor]MM should see a $1M sale this year. Getting closer. Wouldnt be surprised to see the standard 3/2 1300ish SF homes hit 800K[/quote]

That would be a hell of a ride. Have you factored in that mortgage rate might be higher this year? New stimulus, inflation concerns, a brighter covid outlook…

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Its only getting worse

New listings 5 –

New Pendings of 12 –

Thats -7

Closed sales at 7

Price reductions at 0. h

Current inventory at 5 with median price of $750K. Back to a more typical median price

One of the bigger Pardee homes in SW MM closed for $965K on cul de sac canyon lot. Was never on market and private sale without much details. If it had hit open market it wouldve gone for $1M. Im confident of that. We basically are at $1M for those now. A 3/2 1400 sf closed for $791K. Basically knocking on door of 800K also.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. More of the same

New listings 6 –

New Pendings of 6 –

Thats 0

Closed sales at 3

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 7 with median price of $770K. All are on a week or less and likely in process of negotiating a final deal with multple buyers

Ran into one of the old time MM agents this weekend. Ran into him last in the Fall while househunting with clients that got in late last year. Asked him how tough it was and he said much tougher than even a few months ago.

One interesting phenomena is low inventory not only can push prices up but it can also hold them down. We need a string of closed sales for prices to march upward. Looking at the 3 closed sales the last week, 2 were put together by agents that never had the house on the open market. Both agents put a buyer into the house off market at prices I’d consider below market. One was a good $50K below market IMHO. Seller was a real estate licensee who shouldve wanted it on the market but maybe they their reason. The other is hard to say how low it was and might not have been. But without full market exposure its tough to say it couldnt have gone for more. Seller was related to agent also.

Both of these could have pulled comps up higher

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Next level has arrived

New listings 5 –

New Pendings of 8 –

Thats -3

Closed sales at 8

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 6 with median price of $762K

So why are we next level? Last Fall I was out shopping with clients and homes were going 25 to 50K over asking. One month ago I asked if we’d see $800K for the typical 3/2 1300 sq ft home in MM this year. Last week I mentioned we would need a string of sales at much higher prices to march upward.

Yesterday 2 houses closed for $825K and $840K! Both were about $100K over asking.

Less homes are hitting the market each week with more buyers climbing over each other just to get a chance to see them. There is no reason a decent 3/2 put on the market going forward should close much below $800K. The next notable milestone will be a typical 2 story 2000ish SQ FT home breaching $1M. We just need one to hit the market and should achieve that.

[sdrealtor]

Welcome to broken record Tuesday.

New listings 5 –

New Pendings of 9 –

Thats -4

Closed sales at 7

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 6 with median price of $727K

Nothing more to say. A slight skew toward some smaller homes coming on market which is pulling down median but really just noise in the data. No real change

[sdrealtor]

Back again

New listings 5 –

New Pendings of 5 –

Thats 0 change

Closed sales at 10

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 7 with median price of $825K

I opined ealier this year we should hit 800K soon for the standard 3/2 house here. Looking at recent closings we didnt really hit it so much as skipped over it. Near the end of last year those homes were 730 to 770K. I know, I sold one to a client. Now they are closing between 800 and 850. If there was a time they sold in the high 700’s I missed it by blinking

[sdrealtor]

Update time

New listings 7 –

New Pendings of 8 –

Thats -1 change

Closed sales at 4

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 7 with median price of $829K

A couple thoughts. There’s a house on Clauser street. I think its gonna be the first to crack the $1M mark. Expanded house on bigger than most lot on cul de sac with view. If it doesnt someone didnt do their job. I think it should go closer to 1.1 than 1M.

Looking at recent listings, some look to me to be pushing price too much. One listed near the home I sold late last year almost $150K more than my clients. I think thats too much. They shouldve started much lowert and let the market figure out the right price. Its been on the market almost a week and not in escrow which can only mean price is too high

[sdrealtor]

Back to my day job. ran numbers yesterday and owe you all an update. Thats Californian for y’all

New listings 8 –

New Pendings of 7 –

Thats +1 change

Closed sales at 12

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 9 with median price of $799K

Slow and steady flow of inventory far below demand. BTW, I take back my statement some look to be pushing too hard. The house near the one I sold seems to be in escrow. Not only didnt they lower the price, they raised it! Its probably gonna sell for at least 150K more.

[sdrealtor]

Update time for week ended yesterday

New listings 10 –

New Pendings of 9 –

Thats +1 change

Closed sales at 7

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 10 with median price of $782K

The slow steady drip of new inventory with buyers waiting for it. Id imagine the buyer pool must be growing larger. No relief in sight

[sdrealtor]

Update time for week ended today

New listings 4 – lowest number this year

New Pendings of 11 – one off highest number this year

Thats -7 change

Closed sales at 5

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 6 with median price of $799K

Inventory is not getting better. Demand is as strong as its been all year. We are heading into May which is one of our strongest months. Buyers gotta be shaking their heads hoping for some more inventory.

[an]

Inventory is worst today than in 2005

[sdrealtor]

Definitely. Certainly in MM, along the coast and in the 4S area.

[an]

The numbers are even worst in Sorrento Mesa ;-).

[sdrealtor]

Lol

[sdrealtor]

Update time for week ended today

New listings 5 – lowest number this year

New Pendings of 8 – one off highest number this year

Thats -3 change

Closed sales at 7

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 3 with median price of $765K

Inventory is really ONE! Two are currently working through multple offers. the one was listed too high and just reduced. There is basically no houses for sale in the newly rebranded Sorrento Mesa

[an]

It’s pretty crazy if you think about it… For an area of 23k household and 74k people, there are 3 houses for sale.

[sdrealtor]

Beyond crazy

[sdrealtor]

Client closed here in December and had to deal with a $20k appraisal shortfall. Four months later there is a comp almost 25% higher within spitting distance. Astounding

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Client closed here in December and had to deal with a $20k appraisal shortfall. Four months later there is a comp almost 25% higher within spitting distance. Astounding[/quote]
That’s insane

[sdrealtor]

Update time for week ended yesterday. If we are gonna see any inventory build it should start soon

New listings 11 – highest number this year and as expected. Bring on more inventory as we are a month away from school year ending

New Pendings of 4 – lowest number this year and as expected. there was nothing to buy last week

Thats +7 change

Closed sales at 4

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 11 with median price of $800K. thats more than we have had in a long time. Not only more but nicer and bigger than we have seen in a while. Now will the market absorb it or will more pile on?

Next update should provide some feedback on that

[an]

Glad to see seller push the limit to find out what the market price is. IMHO, for a buyer, it’s better this than a bidding war against 30 people and have to play chicken with a “Highest and best” offer.

[sdrealtor]

Update time for week ended yesterday. Inventory is not building at least nmot yet

New listings 10 – nice to see that number stay up and hopefully this continues but really need more

New Pendings of 12 – bring more inventory online and it sells, imagine that? Market has no issue absorbing new listings

Thats -2 change

Closed sales at 6

Price reductions at 3.

Current inventory at 11 with median price of $849K. Its not building but at least held up. Sellers are taking notice of comps and asking prices on the rise. Lets see what happens this week

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Inventory dropped

New listings 6 – nice to see that number stay up and hopefully this continues but really need more

New Pendings of 12 – no end to demand in sight

Thats -6 change

Closed sales at 14

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 9 with median price of $859K. Inventory dropped and we got fewer new listings. Its not looking like we will get any relief in MM. Maybe this week

[an]

And just like that, the median just increased to $875k a few hours after you posted this!

[sdrealtor]

Data set is so small it bounces around. Big change is in January it was reliably in mid 700s. Now it’s mid 800s

[sdrealtor]

New listings 1 (4)

New Pendings of 2 (3)

Closed sales at 7(10)

Inventory at 17 (5) with median of 999 (959)

Slowly rolling into the New Year. Slow on both sides as expected

[sdrealtor]

New listings 1 (4)

New Pendings of 2 (5)

Closed sales at 2 (12)

Inventory at 15 (3) with median of 1M (935)

Nothing much going on here. Slow all over

[sdrealtor]

Final update of the year!

New listings 1 (1)

New Pendings of 5 (2)

Closed sales at 2 (3)

Inventory at 9 (3) with median of 1M (data not recorded last year)

Overall the market here looks pretty stable. In the last month 14 went into escrow and we finish up with 9 on the market. Comparing this to the NCC market I think its closer to finding its bottom and comfortable level. I beleive most sales will remain at 800k+. There should be some in 700’s but Im not seeing the 600’s coming back. I guess time will tell.

Happy New Year all!

[sdrealtor]

Welcome back! So now the question is what is gonna happen to inventory? Will there be a race to the exits? Will buyers keep buying?

New listings 0 (1)

New Pendings of 1 (1)

Closed sales at 1 (2)

Inventory at 13 (2) with median of 1.03M (data not recorded last year)

Dead as a door nail. The increase in inventory is due to folks coming back after a holiday break. No one jumping the gun to head for the exit door yet. Little coming on the market. Next week likely similar and then the season begins.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Inventory jumped and is highest this year as it should be but still very notable

New listings 10 – one of highest counts this year as it should be

New Pendings of 5 – first sign of a slow down with more inventory available

Thats +5 change

Closed sales at 9

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 17 with median price of $860K. Up until the beginning of May median was under 800K. Last 3 weeks its been in the mid 800’s. Prices now start in mid 700’s which was where the median was when the year started. We need a breather here. Could be the first signs of market saying enough is enough with price jumps here. Something to follow.

Will run NCC after I get back from appointment but not expecting to see this kind of relief there where it rages on. Will know soon enough

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Inventory jumped and is about the highest this year as it should be but still very notable

New listings 10 – one of highest counts this year as it should be

New Pendings of 15 – lots of pendings with more inventory to choose form. Highest figure this year. Peak demand time

Thats -5 change

Closed sales at 3

Price reductions at 2.

Current inventory at 17 with median price of $885K. Two things are going on there. Yes prices are rising but we are seeing more of the bigger homes finally starting to hit the market both of which are pulling the median higher.

With the longer weekend Id expect the negotiations to drag out an extra day. Should be a bunch more pendings in the next 24 hours

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Inventory jumped and is about the highest this year as it should be but still very notable

New listings 7 – back down to earth

New Pendings of 12 – lots of pendings

Thats -5 change

Closed sales at 8

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 14 with median price of $825K.

In the last 30 days there have been 4 homes closing at $1M or more. The floodgates are open now

[sdrealtor]

Uggh, went to update and realzed computer shut down without me saving the numbers the last week. Bottom line more of the same

[sdrealtor]

Update time. I remember looking at numbers last week before I lost them and thinking no change. Ran numbers yesterday and trend remains.

New listings 9 – back down to earth

New Pendings of 11 – lots of pendings

Thats -2 change

Closed sales at 7

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 18 with median price of $825K.

Slight increase in inventory but nothing of note

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Market easing up here also

New listings 7 – falling

New Pendings of 6 – pendings falling

Thats +1 change

Closed sales at 15

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 20 with median price of $850K.

Inventory starting to build. Prices stabilizing here also.

Wait until 3 Roots starts selling homes with people fighting to pay above $1M. Im bullish on MM over longterm. Gonna take 5 to 10 years for real impact to set in but I only see better days ahead for this once humble area

[jmw]

Will 3Roots have any impact on pricing in “old” Mira Mesa?

My thoughts are, no. There are 14k people on the waitlist. People who don’t get in to 3Roots won’t have old Mira Mesa as their backup plan. Also, I don’t see a mass exodus from old Mira Mesa, to new Mira Mesa because why pay more in property tax and HOA.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=jmw]Will 3Roots have any impact on pricing in “old” Mira Mesa?

My thoughts are, no. There are 14k people on the waitlist. People who don’t get in to 3Roots won’t have old Mira Mesa as their backup plan. Also, I don’t see a mass exodus from old Mira Mesa, to new Mira Mesa because why pay more in property tax and HOA.[/quote]

Did San Elijo Hills have any impact on San Marcos,? Did La Costa Valley change South Carlsbad? Did Encinitas Ranch change Encinitas? Did Eastlake change Chula Vista? Did 4S change Rancho Bernardo? You’ll be proven wrong. Won’t happen immediately but give me ten years. Will take any and all bets.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=jmw]Will 3Roots have any impact on pricing in “old” Mira Mesa?

My thoughts are, no. There are 14k people on the waitlist. People who don’t get in to 3Roots won’t have old Mira Mesa as their backup plan. Also, I don’t see a mass exodus from old Mira Mesa, to new Mira Mesa because why pay more in property tax and HOA.[/quote]

Did San Elijo Hills have any impact on San Marcos,? Did La Costa Valley change South Carlsbad? Did Encinitas Ranch change Encinitas? Did Eastlake change Chula Vista? Did 4S change Rancho Bernardo? You’ll be proven wrong. Won’t happen immediately but give me ten years. Will take any and all bets.[/quote]It also won’t just be 3Roots that will affect MM. There’s an even bigger development called Stonecreek that’ll be about 5-10 years behind 3Roots. They’re estimating that it’ll start building by 2030 and will have ~2.5x more residential unit than 3Roots: https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/stone-creek/

The city is also in the process of rezoning Sorrento Valley, Miramar and the current commercial (strip malls in MM) to be higher density and mix used. https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/city-proposes-high-density-housing-in-mira-mesa/

Not to mention all the business high rises popping up around UTC area. This will bring high income earners to the areas.

Mira Mesa will change drastically over the next 20 years.

With regards to 3Roots specifically, it’ll definitely bring people who can afford $1-1.4m houses to the Southwest part of MM. Their kids will go to Jonas Salk & Challenger, which will change the demographic there and drive up the test scores and image of the schools. 3Roots will be building a huge trail system that will benefit residence of the SW part of MM as well.

Like you sdrealtor, I’m extremely bullish here in the medium to long term.

[an]

[quote=jmw]People who don’t get in to 3Roots won’t have old Mira Mesa as their backup plan.[/quote]
Maybe most don’t, but I know one who does.

[quote=jmw]Also, I don’t see a mass exodus from old Mira Mesa, to new Mira Mesa because why pay more in property tax and HOA.[/quote]
Maybe not mass exodus, but I know a few who are part of the 14k applicants. One was too slow, so won’t be part of phase 1. One is hoping to get on the list for Lennar if they go w/ first come first server. Several others are pondering buying there but no firm commitment.

Property tax and HOA are just part of the ownership and some old part of MM do have HOA.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Ran numbers a day late due to holiday brain fog

New listings 9 –

New Pendings of 9 –

Thats 0 change

Closed sales at 4

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 23 with median price of $850K.

Inventory continuing to build. Prices stabilizing and dont seem to be rising. Could soften a little IMO but not a lot. Market seems to be returning to normal albeit with higher prices

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Back on schedule

New listings 10 –

New Pendings of 8 –

Thats +2 change

Closed sales at 11

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 25 with median price of $855K.

Slow inventory build continues. Market still very strong but more orderly. Very stable here

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Strong week for MM, maybe strongest all year.

New listings 7 – slight decrease over last few weeks

New Pendings of 18 – easily biggest week of the year. Part is there was more inventory but there was more inventory the last 3 weeks. Bit of a reversal here

Thats -11 change

Closed sales at 6. Sign of previous low inventoyr as things take 30-60 days to close

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 16 with median price of $850K.

Inventory had been building over last 5 weeks then boom. Things are cooking in MM again.

[ybitz]

you know anything about the new construction in Mira Mesa, the 3 Roots development? Wonder how that’ll affect the existing Mira Mesa market.

[flyer]

Some friends inquired for their kids, and found the developments will, most likely, not be in their desired school districts, so they bought in CV. Don’t know if that will become an issue for potential buyers in those MM developments, but for those who want specific school districts for their kids, as many do, it might.

[an]

[quote=flyer]Some friends inquired for their kids, and found the developments will, most likely, not be in their desired school districts, so they bought in CV. Don’t know if that will become an issue for potential buyers in those MM developments, but for those who want specific school districts for their kids, as many do, it might.[/quote]
Don’t tell that to the 14,000 families who want to be on the list for 1800 homes. I know many who can’t even get on the list.

Lennar is going with “bidding war” sale, so have fun trying to be the winning bid. CalWest and Shea chose to do first come first serve for their first phase but it won’t surprise me if they’ll follow Lennar’s lead and do bidding war for the following phases.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=an][quote=flyer]Some friends inquired for their kids, and found the developments will, most likely, not be in their desired school districts, so they bought in CV. Don’t know if that will become an issue for potential buyers in those MM developments, but for those who want specific school districts for their kids, as many do, it might.[/quote]
Don’t tell that to the 14,000 families who want to be on the list for 1800 homes. I know many who can’t even get on the list.

Lennar is going with “bidding war” sale, so have fun trying to be the winning bid. CalWest and Shea chose to do first come first serve for their first phase but it won’t surprise me if they’ll follow Lennar’s lead and do bidding war for the following phases.[/quote]

So the irony is a significant portion of the folks who buy in the top coastal school districts send their kids to private schools anyway. If i had to guess neither flyer nor his kids attended public schools

[flyer]

Good to hear all the feedback–really didn’t know much about it. Our friends kids made their choice in CV and those who choose MM will make theirs. Hope it works out for all of them.

[an]

[quote=flyer]Good to hear all the feedback–really didn’t know much about it. Our friends kids made their choice in CV and those who choose MM will make theirs. Hope it works out for all of them.[/quote]
1st world problem

[flyer]

So true.

[Coronita]

[quote=flyer]Some friends inquired for their kids, and found the developments will, most likely, not be in their desired school districts, so they bought in CV. Don’t know if that will become an issue for potential buyers in those MM developments, but for those who want specific school districts for their kids, as many do, it might.[/quote]

this is bullshit. I seriously doubt you sent your own kids to public school. My money says that like many other who bought in an area like Carmel Valley, you bought thinking you are getting the “best” elementary schools…For example….. Ocean Air and Sage Canyon, but 2-3 years after sending your kid there, you decided to put your kids into a private school anyway.

If your kids were really gifted, you would have found the instructions at even the CV public schools lacking like many parent found and eventually sent their kids to a private school.

Or maybe you skipped the CV public schools completely and did what many people did, and send them to LJ Country Day or Bishop school anyway, which makes the argument about the public school district lacking a non-argument. The only thing worth considering is ensuring the neighborhood is a safe neighbor, which I’m sure 3Roots will be fine. Concidentally, some of the biggest drug offenses happen to been in the more affluent areas where helicopter parents with money leave a lot of money to directionless spoiled brats who have nothing better to do than to vape and sniff. Wasn’t that lady who got caught selling drug some mom from that private high school in Carmel Valley, Cathedral High???….

The teaching staff at DMUSD or San Dieguito is no better or worse than say Poway or up in Carlsbad. What makes a difference in the kid’s education was parental involvement, whether it was hands on in the case of me or parents shelling out money for all the after school enrichment if either the parents were incapable of teaching their own kids (in subjects like STEM which many american parents limited education stops around 7th grade understanding. A lot of room moms I worked with as a room dad literally couldn’t help their kids in math beyond 6th-7th grade. It was pathetic. So they have to pay money to get substandard tutor help, lol….and by the time they get into middle school, usually the kids get wrapped up into being popular that their education falls off a cliff anyway….more money wasted, lol)

Also, from a distance perspective, sending your kids to Bishop School or LJ Country day, it’s a lot closer to do it if you are in 3Roots than CarmelValley. unless of course you are helicopter parent that is too lazy to drop your own kid off at school and have to pay someone to drop your brats off in a bentley at school

Actually, flyer, not sure why you would prefer Carmel Valley over 3 Roots. You can be the biggest fish in the small pond versus being a small fish in the big Carmel Valley pond.

Imagine in 3 roots, being the only guy on the area that complains about how your bentley can’t fit into the substandard garage and applying for a architecture change request with the HOA board to extend your garage just so you can fit your bentley in it… Now, that screams, I’ve got money, you don’t all the rest of you 3 Roots plebians!!!

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita][quote=flyer]Some friends inquired for their kids, and found the developments will, most likely, not be in their desired school districts, so they bought in CV. Don’t know if that will become an issue for potential buyers in those MM developments, but for those who want specific school districts for their kids, as many do, it might.[/quote]

this is bullshit. I seriously doubt you sent your own kids to public school. My money says that like many other who bought in an area like Carmel Valley, you bought thinking you are getting the “best” elementary schools…For example….. Ocean Air and Sage Canyon, but 2-3 years after sending your kid there, you decided to put your kids into a private school anyway.

If your kids were really gifted, you would have found the instructions at even the CV public schools lacking like many parent found and eventually sent their kids to a private school.

Or maybe you skipped the CV public schools completely and did what many people did, and send them to LJ Country Day or Bishop school anyway, which makes the argument about the public school district lacking a non-argument. The only thing worth considering is ensuring the neighborhood is a safe neighbor, which I’m sure 3Roots will be fine. Concidentally, some of the biggest drug offenses happen to been in the more affluent areas where helicopter parents with money leave a lot of money to directionless spoiled brats who have nothing better to do than to vape and sniff. Wasn’t that lady who got caught selling drug some mom from that private high school in Carmel Valley, Cathedral High???….

The teaching staff at DMUSD or San Dieguito is no better or worse than say Poway or up in Carlsbad. What makes a difference in the kid’s education was parental involvement, whether it was hands on in the case of me or parents shelling out money for all the after school enrichment if either the parents were incapable of teaching their own kids (in subjects like STEM which many american parents limited education stops around 7th grade understanding. A lot of room moms I worked with as a room dad literally couldn’t help their kids in math beyond 6th-7th grade. It was pathetic. So they have to pay money to get substandard tutor help, lol….and by the time they get into middle school, usually the kids get wrapped up into being popular that their education falls off a cliff anyway….more money wasted, lol)

Also, from a distance perspective, sending your kids to Bishop School or LJ Country day, it’s a lot closer to do it if you are in 3Roots than CarmelValley. unless of course you are helicopter parent that is too lazy to drop your own kid off at school and have to pay someone to drop your brats off in a bentley at school

Actually, flyer, not sure why you would prefer Carmel Valley over 3 Roots. You can be the biggest fish in the small pond versus being a small fish in the big Carmel Valley pond.

Imagine in 3 roots, being the only guy on the area that complains about how your bentley can’t fit into the substandard garage and applying for a architecture change request with the HOA board to extend your garage just so you can fit your bentley in it… Now, that screams, I’ve got money, you don’t all the rest of you 3 Roots plebians!!![/quote]

The most important thing for health is to be better than those around you. More stressful to be the small fish.

[Coronita]

[quote=scaredyclassic]

The most important thing for health is to be better than those around you. More stressful to be the small fish.[/quote]

In america, what’s great about this country is…no one really needs to give a shit how much wealthier anyone else it. It’s not like it’s a zero sum game that someone wealthier means you have a shittier life. It’s like that in fcked up 3rd world countries and even parts of asia where literally if you aren’t in the in crowd, you are totally fucked. But here, in umerica’… doesn’t matter in the long run.

Everything they teach you about how it’s not just how much you make but what you do with it, is so true. You can be a janitor would smart financial decisions and do pretty well. You could be someone making $300k/year and blowing every dollar and be piss poor… Anyone that looks down on someone because of the work they do… fuck them. kick them in the groin…. That’s what makes this country great. Just look at Evelyn Lin….

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=Coronita] Just look at Evelyn Lin….[/quote]

Do you mean that literally, or figuratively?

[Coronita]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=Coronita] Just look at Evelyn Lin….[/quote]

Do you mean that literally, or figuratively?[/quote]
Thats up to subjective interpretation

[flyer]

My post was about our friends kids recently buying in CV vs MM, based upon their preferences. Good or bad, that was their choice. Others make other choices, which is probably great for them. We lived in CV many years ago, and still have rentals there, but haven’t lived there for quite awhile.

[an]

[quote=flyer]My post was about our friends kids recently buying in CV vs MM, based upon their preferences. Good or bad, that was their choice. Others make other choices, which is probably great for them. We lived in CV many years ago, and still have rentals there, but haven’t lived there for quite awhile.[/quote]
This is the first time I’ve heard of anyone who cross shop CV w/ MM when school district is remotely on their radar.

[flyer]

Exactly. I wondered about that, too, but that was what our friends told us. Guess they’re happy with their choice, so it all worked out. As was mentioned, thankfully, we’re all free to make our own choices in this Country.

[scaredyclassic]

I think you mean free to spend money as you elect, not like actually free to choose.

Why can’t I choose to get psychedelic mushrooms at Costco?

[flyer]

Right. Probably more accurate to say, of the choices available to each of us, we’re free to spend money on them as we choose. Still a great option, imo.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=flyer]Right. Probably more accurate to say, of the choices available to each of us, we’re free to spend money on them as we choose. Still a great option, imo.[/quote]

Right. And it might be even more accurate to say that most have no actual real choice.

Everyone is free to choose actually means rich people get the best options

[Coronita]

[quote=an][quote=flyer]My post was about our friends kids recently buying in CV vs MM, based upon their preferences. Good or bad, that was their choice. Others make other choices, which is probably great for them. We lived in CV many years ago, and still have rentals there, but haven’t lived there for quite awhile.[/quote]
This is the first time I’ve heard of anyone who cross shop CV w/ MM when school district is remotely on their radar.[/quote]

dude, you are recycling what you say over and over again on just about every post about what you inherited and nobody cares. If you’re trying to fish for complements on an internet blog to somehow make yourself feel better among people wealthier than you, its probably not working because no one either believes you or gives a shit. Everyone is a billionaire on the internet. Now excuse me. i need to figure out how to extend my garage so i can fit my cessna that my uncle just bought for me in there. Apparently the HOA doesnt like me just leaving it on the driveway…I mean, i prefer to leave it on tje driveway because it boosts my ego in my otherwise low self esteem among my billionaire friends, just so i can thumb my nose at all the plebians CarmelV folks that dont have a cessna…..

[gzz]

As I recall MM had really high test scores even when it was a more downscale area.

The largest 3roots plan is 3,643 SF 5/4.5. So its high end overlaps with CV’s midrange, and is ~20 years newer.

On the other hand, the boxy modern look of the larger 3roots homes is inferior to the more traditional Spanish/French med look of your typical CV place.

The 3R plan that I like the best are the three floor SFH Citrine. Its modern boxy look just works better when it is taller.

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/citrine

If you’ve ever been to newer suburban areas of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Paris, a lot of them have this look, though not as heavy with the stone trim.

[an]

[quote=gzz]As I recall MM had really high test scores even when it was a more downscale area.

The largest 3roots plan is 3,643 SF 5/4.5. So its high end overlaps with CV’s midrange, and is ~20 years newer.

On the other hand, the boxy modern look of the larger 3roots homes is inferior to the more traditional Spanish/French med look of your typical CV place.

The 3R plan that I like the best are the three floor SFH Citrine. Its modern boxy look just works better when it is taller.

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/citrine

If you’ve ever been to newer suburban areas of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Paris, a lot of them have this look, though not as heavy with the stone trim.[/quote]
I personally like the Mediterranean/Spanish look more than the modern look. But the younger crowd do like the modern look more. So, I’m sure the builders have done their research based on their target audience and what they like. That might be one of the reasons why the level of interest is through the roof.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=an][quote=gzz]As I recall MM had really high test scores even when it was a more downscale area.

The largest 3roots plan is 3,643 SF 5/4.5. So its high end overlaps with CV’s midrange, and is ~20 years newer.

On the other hand, the boxy modern look of the larger 3roots homes is inferior to the more traditional Spanish/French med look of your typical CV place.

The 3R plan that I like the best are the three floor SFH Citrine. Its modern boxy look just works better when it is taller.

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/citrine

If you’ve ever been to newer suburban areas of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Paris, a lot of them have this look, though not as heavy with the stone trim.[/quote]
I personally like the Mediterranean/Spanish look more than the modern look. But the younger crowd do like the modern look more. So, I’m sure the builders have done their research based on their target audience and what they like. That might be one of the reasons why the level of interest is through the roof.[/quote]

Actually that Tuscan /spanish/mediterranean look has been on its way out for more than five years. They don’t build much of that anywhere anymore. Houses with that interior have been viewed as fixer uppers for several years up here

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Actually that Tuscan /spanish/mediterranean look has been on its way out for more than five years. They don’t build much of that anywhere anymore. Houses with that interior have been viewed as fixer uppers for several years up here[/quote]
I don’t know if it’s on its way out for all target audience. I was looking at Toll Brother’s in Robertson Ranch in Carlsbad as well as their development in Pacific Highland Ranch and they’re both Tuscan /Spanish/Mediterranean style. All the while, houses across the way from TriPoint Homes (formerly Pardee) were all modern. So, I wonder if the cheaper builders are going modern because their target clientele are younger?

I personally don’t like the modern exterior look but I like the more transitional (somewhat modern) interior with open concept. I think Toll Brothers homes strike a good balance for me.

[sdrealtor]

Toll shifted away from traditional Spanish/Tuscan in RR but that was a few years ago and planned years earlier than it was built. Inside very modern and no more tuscan. The shift is on

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Toll shifted away from traditional Spanish/Tuscan in RR but that was a few years ago and planned years earlier than it was built. Inside very modern and no more tuscan. The shift is on[/quote]Agree that the shift is definitely happening. Looking at Toll’s offering in OC, all their smaller homes are modern and most of the larger home in the exterior are not quite modern and still have traditional roof lines. Their interior is definitely much more open and modern than the outside.

[sdrealtor]

Yup change takes time and builders are slow to move. It took them a couple decades to dismiss the formal living room despite calls for that in focus groups long before they did. The point is, the modern look is not inferior in the eyes of currrent buyers on the whole

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]Yup change takes time and builders are slow to move. It took them a couple decades to dismiss the formal living room despite calls for that in focus groups long before they did. The point is, the modern look is not inferior in the eyes of currrent buyers on the whole[/quote]

when will the interior charcoal gray look fad go away? 🙂

[an]

[quote=Coronita][quote=sdrealtor]Yup change takes time and builders are slow to move. It took them a couple decades to dismiss the formal living room despite calls for that in focus groups long before they did. The point is, the modern look is not inferior in the eyes of currrent buyers on the whole[/quote]

when will the interior charcoal gray look fad go away? :)[/quote]
I think this will take a couple more decades, since we’re just start to shift away from the brown tone to a gray tone. The popular color tone for kitchen/bathroom now is white/black/gray

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Yup change takes time and builders are slow to move. It took them a couple decades to dismiss the formal living room despite calls for that in focus groups long before they did. The point is, the modern look is not inferior in the eyes of currrent buyers on the whole[/quote]
100% agree that it’s not inferior. It’s just different. Like clothing, design I feel like goes in cycle. Modern was popular about 70 years ago and now it’s back. Just not exactly the same. I love the new interior layout of minimizing hallways. It makes the house feel much bigger.

I also love the 10′ ceilings in the Toll houses vs the typical 9′ that the cheaper builders have. That extra feet makes a huge difference.

[gzz]

It is kind of jarring to see a new development of close-in detached 2-floor suburban homes street full of cookie cutter modernish houses. Driving home and driving through three streets of these?

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/brio

It looks like something you’d see in the hollywood hills, but it will be in a symmetric row of dozens.

I supposed you’d get used to it, and over time the owners would customize them, but I just don’t like it.

Here’s another phase that uses three floors that looks fine:

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/aero

I think the issue is the boxy look is space efficient and urban, and doesn’t look good in a large two floor suburban development.

[sdrealtor]

Just a tip. I wouldn’t use one single male 30 or 40 something’s wants, needs, likes and preferences as a measuring stick for consumer housing preferences

[svelte]

[quote=gzz]It is kind of jarring to see a new development of close-in detached 2-floor suburban homes street full of cookie cutter modernish houses. Driving home and driving through three streets of these?

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/brio

It looks like something you’d see in the hollywood hills, but it will be in a symmetric row of dozens.

[/quote]

They are getting ready to do a similar development in San Marcos in the area called North City. It looks a bit claustrophobic to me, but then a lot of new developments do. Guess I’m not the target demographic so doesn’t really matter.

Times they are a-changin’.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=svelte][quote=gzz]It is kind of jarring to see a new development of close-in detached 2-floor suburban homes street full of cookie cutter modernish houses. Driving home and driving through three streets of these?

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/brio

It looks like something you’d see in the hollywood hills, but it will be in a symmetric row of dozens.

[/quote]

They are getting ready to do a similar development in San Marcos in the area called North City. It looks a bit claustrophobic to me, but then a lot of new developments do. Guess I’m not the target demographic so doesn’t really matter.

Times they are a-changin’.[/quote]

Drove past that a week or so ago and holy cow. Lots of earth being moved around there. That university is rapidly expanding and the area will benefit from that on top of everythingalready there

[an]

[quote=ybitz]you know anything about the new construction in Mira Mesa, the 3 Roots development? Wonder how that’ll affect the existing Mira Mesa market.[/quote]
Mira Mesa is changing. 3Roots is the first of the many changes happening over the next 10-20 years. 3Roots will be fully built out over the next 5 years. Then Stone Creek, https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/stone-creek/, immediately east of 3Roots will start. These 2 developments will change feel of MM. Then if you think even longer term, the city want to rezone MM to be a lot more dense, https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/city-proposes-high-density-housing-in-mira-mesa/, so 30 years from now, I’m betting that MM will be a much different place.

As you bring in more people who are buying $1-1.5m houses, school’s test scores will change as well.

[sdrealtor]

To see what will happen in MM one only need look north at San Marcos. Twenty Five years ago its was widely disparaged around North County locals. Then San Elijo Hills and some other smaller communities were built and the sea tide changed. Today San Marcos home prices for comparable homes arent all that different than Carlsbads.

It will take time as an mentioned but with a central location, relatively affordable homes, nice all usable lots common and proximity to UCSD, Medical centers and tech/life science job centers I only see one way for this to end.

Right now most homes are selling over $800k. At those prices the people moving in are not the same as the people moving out or most of the current residents.

There are about 25k housing units in MM. 60% of those are owner occupied so lets call that 15K.

This year about 800 homes will change ownership with close to 500 of those single family homes. Thats 3% turnover. Most of those were built in 70’s and 80’s so original owners hanging on have been there 40 to 50 years and will be aging out. Expect the pace of the turnover to accelerate. Throw in a few thousand new homes which will be magnets for even wealthier residents.

In 2030 years years, I beleive around 50% of the homes in MM will have different owners than they did in 2020. Incomes and education levels are rapidly rising along with that.

If I was a young couple starting out and thinking about starting a family MM would most certainly be on my radar

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Strong week for MM, maybe strongest all year.

New listings 10 – back to average listing count

New Pendings of 9 – less on market so pendings drop back down

Thats +1 change

Closed sales at 8. Occasionally see something below 800k but for the most part market is 800K+

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 20 with median price of $868K.

Starting to see more sales close to or above $1M.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Another strong week for MM.

New listings 11 – average listing count

New Pendings of 12 – back up

Thats -1 change

Closed sales at 8.

Price reductions at 3.

Current inventory at 18 with median price of $875K.

More sales close to or above $1M. trend continues. SFR sales below 800K evaporating

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Another strong week for MM.

New listings 8 –

New Pendings of 9 –

Thats -1 change

Closed sales at 9.

Price reductions at 0. There are some which should be reduced.

Current inventory at 20 with median price of $875K.

MM has become a very orderly market with a very consistent ebb and flow. I would say well over half the current inventory is on the market for 2 weeks plus getting stale sitting overpriced. There are buyers for anything reasonable priced appropriately

Drove through 3 Roots yesterday. Its gonna be a stunning transformation for the area IMO. Looking really impressive to my eyes

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]Update time. Another strong week for MM.

New listings 8 –

New Pendings of 9 –

Thats -1 change

Closed sales at 9.

Price reductions at 0. There are some which should be reduced.

Current inventory at 20 with median price of $875K.

MM has become a very orderly market with a very consistent ebb and flow. I would say well over half the current inventory is on the market for 2 weeks plus getting stale sitting overpriced. There are buyers for anything reasonable priced appropriately

Drove through 3 Roots yesterday. Its gonna be a stunning transformation for the area IMO. Looking really impressive to my eyes[/quote]

the cool part about 3roots is its right at the corridor to this large industrial park of a lot of biotech and medical device companies. Some of them are doing really well especially those supporting covid related testing and research. A few colleagues started working at these companies recently and they are on a hiring binge. Also as good as mobile engineers these days.
Big growth area imho, especially as we see more older and ailing people.

[an]

[quote=Coronita]the cool part about 3roots is its right at the corridor to this large industrial park of a lot of biotech and medical device companies. Some of them are doing really well especially those supporting covid related testing and research. A few colleagues started working at these companies recently and they are on a hiring binge. Also as good as mobile engineers these days.
Big growth area imho, especially as we see more older and ailing people.[/quote]What you’re seeing today is only the beginning. A lot of the commercial land around 3Roots will get rezone to allow for even more. https://www.sandiego.gov/sites/default/files/02_18_2021_draft_land_use_scenarios_final.pdf

[sdrealtor]

Wow that’s awesome the amount of planning going on there. Had no idea. The future seems bright here

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Wow that’s awesome the amount of planning going on there. Had no idea. The future seems bright here[/quote]
I’ve been sitting in on those meetings and the result essentially is, either do nothing or do A LOT. So I’m thinking the city will go w/ do A LOT. So it’ll be very interesting to see this whole area evolve over the next 30 years.

[sdrealtor]

The city needs to build more housing. They only have one choice. Its just a matter of when, where and what

[sdrealtor]

Sorry for delay. Just got back from annual old friends trip back to Jersey Shore.

New listings 10 –

New Pendings of 9 –

Thats +1 change

Closed sales at 13.

Price reductions at 1. There are more which should be reduced.

Current inventory at 22 with median price of $875K.

Very stable here and inventory is only building slightly due to a few sellers overshooting on list prices

[sdrealtor]

New listings 8 –

New Pendings of 9 –

Thats -1 change

Closed sales at 12.

Price reductions at 1. There are more which should be reduced.

Current inventory at 26 with median price of $867K.

Just humming along here. Inventory building slightly due to some that need to but dont reduce. Prices in the 800’s completely normalized. Seeing more sales of $1M every week for the bigger nicer homes. Prices have settled down and stabilized at least for now

[sdrealtor]

New listings 8 –

New Pendings of 10 –

Thats -2 change

Closed sales at 13.

Price reductions at 0. There are more which should be reduced.

Current inventory at 24 with median price of $867K.

We may have already seen peak inventory for the year here

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 –

New Pendings of 8 –

Thats -2 change

Closed sales at 8.

Price reductions at 3. Some holdouts slowly coming down

Current inventory at 20 with median price of $857K.

Remarkably stable action with inventory heading into seasonal decline

[sdrealtor]

Sorry for late report. Was out of town but ran em before I left

New listings 10 –

New Pendings of 13 –

Thats -3 change

Closed sales at 12.

Price reductions at 2. Some holdouts slowly coming down

Current inventory at 19 with median price of $849K.

Steady as she is

[sdrealtor]

New listings 7 –

New Pendings of 10 –

Thats -3 change

Closed sales at 12.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 20 with median price of $849K.

More than half the actives are over 3 weeks which suggests they are overpriced and need to be reduced

Very steady

[sdrealtor]

The model of consistency

New listings 8 –

New Pendings of 9 –

Thats -1 change

Closed sales at 12.

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 18 with median price of $855K

This market looks like it will just keep rolling along at its present pace

[sdrealtor]

Again the model of consistency

New listings 9 –

New Pendings of 9 –

Closed sales at 9.

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 17 with median price of $850K

Flippers are jumping on anything they can get in the mid 700’s knowing they should be able to sell for 900+ come January with a quick remodel

This market looks like it will just keep rolling along at its present pace. I think prices will be around $50K higher by February and who knows where they go from there

[sdrealtor]

New listings 10 –

New Pendings of 14 –

Closed sales at 6.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 16 with median price of $887K

Of the 16 houses on the market over half have offers and arte negotiating. If they moved faster pendings would be over 20. This is a very solid market

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 –

New Pendings of 10 –

Closed sales at 7.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 12 with median price of $912K.

Most of what is active is in multple offers or tenant occupied which is slowing down the sale – Leased through June 2022, uncooperative tenant wont allow access, shown with accepted offer only…good luck with those. There is virtually nothing for sale here and the 912K median is skewed by a couple overpriced properties languishing on the market but come Spring that could be the new normal.

[sdrealtor]

sorry got sidetracked posting but ran numbers on tuesday. I wonder if we will revert back to our typical seasonal pattern as I expect or if things will rage through year end like last year.

New listings 9 –

New Pendings of 9 –

Closed sales at 13.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 12 with median price of $929K.

For now new inventory has kept coming but should slow the next couple months if seasonality reigns. Generally speaking Im seeing nicer homes hit the market over time and flippers are active here which bodes well for continued appreciation

[sdrealtor]

Update time and MM just keep schugging along. Homes below 800K are rare and sales below seem to involve some shenanigans.

New listings 8 –

New Pendings of 8 –

Closed sales at 8.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 17 with median price of $900K.

Inventory built a little but nothing that looks significant. Looks like buyer traffic dropping seasonally a bit while listing volume has stayed steady

[sdrealtor]

Update time and MM continues to be the model of consistently.

New listings 9 –

New Pendings of 9 –

Closed sales at 10.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 18 with median price of $857K.

Drop in median is just change in the mix and small sample size. No big deal. QCOM just had a big month and cant imagine soem of that wont get spread around here. This Spring I expect nicely remodelled homes will go 900K+ and some have already

[sdrealtor]

More of the same

New listings 8 –

New Pendings of 11 –

Closed sales at 13.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 14 with median price of $950K.

Median not only came back it soared to all time high for 3 reasons. The under $800K market is pretty much gone. The new listings skewed toward the high end bigger/newer homes. There are a handful of way overpriced homes sitting on the market

[an]

It’ll be interesting to see if we’ll break the $1m mark for the median price by the spring.

[sdrealtor]

wouldnt surprise me to see median list price hit $1M but I think median sales price of $1M is a bit away

[sdrealtor]

Wanted to get this one in early before holiday shutdown. We expect the market to be mostly shut down by now. Homes listed now are more than likely vacant. Who would want to list their home over the holidays if they didnt have to? Why not wait for the early Spring rush to begin at this point. Lets see what we got

New listings 4 – pretty much shutdown

New Pendings of 14 – buyers still chasing though!

Closed sales at 6.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 7 with median price of $969K.

Verdict: Of the 7 on the market 4 are negotiating offers and 1 cant be shown due to tenants. There are 2 overpriced homes sitting and one of which should sell in the next or at most two. Should be sluggish for rest of the year. This market is wrapped up for all intents and purposes

[sdrealtor]

New listings 1 – a vacant home owned by Redfin

New Pendings of 6 – buyers still out there

Closed sales at 13 – median sales price was $920K.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 4 with median price of $981K.

Of the 4 on the market 2 are in multiple counters so basically gone. One has tenants and cant be shown. There’s pretty much 1 house on the market. Its a nice home remodeled by one of the big flippers in town but the backyard is all pool and its about $1M. Shouldnt last much longer either way.

MM is closed for the year. There could be some drips and drabs of activity here and there but the shelves are/will be empty. Expect prices for a 3BR home to start at $800K+ when it re-opens in Mid January unless a house is a disaster.

[sdrealtor]

Welcome to sleepy time

New listings 1 – its already in escrow

New Pendings of 4 – cleaned up what was left last week

Closed sales at 10 –

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 2.

A probate sale you can wait in line to see next week on the one day tenats are allowing and submit one of many offers on it

A tenant occupied home home you cant see which has been sitting on the market that way 6 months. Submit a full priced offer sight unseen offer on an overpriced home and they may let you see it

The store is closed

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 – 3 flips and perhaps someone trying to get ahead of the market

New Pendings of 3 – cleaned up what was left last week

Closed sales at 10 –

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 5 at median of 959K

Currently on the market. The long time tenant occupied you cant see, 3 vacant flipped homes (one is long time owner flipping their own home) and one sale looking for a rent back. The last one looks interesting. If its what I think thats a smart move. They are selling now and looking for a rent back which they should be able to get. This way when listing activity picks up in Jan/Feb they will have nothing to sell and cash in the bank so they will be strong buyers and have best chance of success. Kudos to them if that is what they are up to

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4

New Pendings of 5

Closed sales at 12 –

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 3 at median of 935K

The market stragglers with challenging situations have now been cleansed from the market. Homes like that tend to come back ont he market at a higher rate but for now they are in escrow. The 3 on the market are very saleable and will go soon. They are likely negotiating offers now.

This is not a tiny niche market like OB, it is home to almost 90K residents and there are virtually no homes for sale. Astounding

[sdrealtor]

Last of the year

New listings 1

New Pendings of 2

Closed sales at 3 –

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 2

The 2 for sale are owned by Zillow and Open Door who usually collect offers for a couple weeks before selling. I saw the one owned by OD when it was on the market before they took best offer to OD and got better net proceeds. OD painted interior and replaced carpet then put back on market for 70K more than they paid. I can see they did not replace any of the rotting fascia boards or rafter tails in their photos. House is still a mess but will sell quickly too

[sdrealtor]

Preseason begins

New listings 1

New Pendings of 1

Closed sales at 2 –

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 2

Zillow owned home still shows active but they dont update status. The Open Door home sold. Probate sale just came on at attractive price. needs work but nice house, location, lot and view so will get plenty of attention quickly

[sdrealtor]

First week of the season. Im gonna make one slight change going forward. Next to the listings and pendings each week I will include the figure from last year. That will start next week for this thread as I started tracking MM that week last year.

New listings 7

New Pendings of 4

Closed sales at 2 –

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 4 with median of 913K. The end of homes under 800K should come at some point if trend continues

All things considered this is a healthy start and in line with what we saw most weeks last year

[sdrealtor]

And so it begins in earnest

New listings 3 (6) – not many, half last year

New Pendings of 2 (11) – nothing to buy

Closed sales at 6 –

Current inventory at 2 with median of 792K. Both small and likely sell over 800K

Keep it coming!

[sdrealtor]

So no one seems interested in moving away

New listings 3 (7) – less than half last year

New Pendings of 4 (5) – still nothing to buy

Closed sales at 5 –

Current inventory at 2

One of the listings is 2br/1ba 740 sf that Zillow overpaid for and is smaller than many 2br apartments. The other is nice one but seller looking to close quickly but not move out until end of May. Im gonna call that essentially nothing for sale

[sdrealtor]

More of the same

New listings 3 (6) – less than half last year

New Pendings of 2 (11) – still nothing to buy

Closed sales at 4 –

Current inventory at 3 (8) with median of 982K

New listings and inventory half what it was last year when we were already complaining

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 (6) – back to last year

New Pendings of 5 (4) – still nothing to buy

Closed sales at 5 –

Current inventory at 7 (13) with median of 900K

With the exception of the <800sf 2/1 everything is on the market less than a week and will sell quickly

Market seems to be appreciating steadily but not in huge jumps

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 (8) –

New Pendings of 9 (12) –

Closed sales at 4 –

Current inventory at 7 (10) with median of 940K (770K)

<800 sqft home in escrow. Anything on the market is on less than a week or as long as it takes to sort through offers. One to three motnh rent backs are typically post closing.

With such low inventory the median asking jumps around a lot but just the same is about 20% higher than last year

One thing Ive noticed is the quality is improving. In the past most of the listings seemed to be old homes in drastic need of a remodel but thats shifting. Now its more flips, long time owners that upgraded but are relocating/downsizing or buyers in the 3 to 10 years who are moving up. I havent seen much of a move up seller/buyer market here in the past but that seems to be changing as lots can sell and walk away with 300-500K or more. Perhaps some are going to3 Roots

[scruffydog]

At least there are listings in MM.
In the entire community of 92124 there are now ZERO listings.
Anybody care to guess how this madness ends?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=scruffydog]At least there are listings in MM.
In the entire community of 92124 there are now ZERO listings.
Anybody care to guess how this madness ends?[/quote]

In fairness Tierrasanta is a very small market. Last year there were 252 sales as compared with MM which had 652 sales or the NCC (92009/92011/92024) which had 1914 sales. Its most similar in size to 92107 which had about 265 sales.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (5) –

New Pendings of 10 (12) –

Closed sales at 3 –

Current inventory at 4 (5) with median of 945K (750K)

More of the same. It seems like 1/3rd of sales are off market fixers sold direct to flippers and 1/3 of listings are remodeled flips of the same. I remember shoping with clients Fall 2020 and we would run into the same 10 buyers on every new lsiting. Its gotta be 20 to 30 now. No relief in sight and median price should continue ascent

[an]

I keep on getting blown away about this prices this spring. I would have never imagined we’re talking about low to mid $1m in Mira Mesa: https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/11122-Avenida-Del-Gato-92126/home/4529475

[sdrealtor]

The party continues

New listings 4 (6) –

New Pendings of 5 (6) –

Closed sales at 5 –

Current inventory at 7 (7) with median of 1.075M (770K)

MM continues its steady climb. INventory is a little worse than last as things really tightened up earlier here than other markets. Its a more slow and orderly process as housing is so homogenous and there are few high end properties compared to the traditional homes but there is no mistaking what is happening. OF note we have our first M instead of a K on the median home price on the market

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 (5) –

New Pendings of 7 (8) –

Closed sales at 7 (6) – median of 978K (762K)

Continues to be a very orderly market with volume at consistent levels y-o-y but prices steadily climbing. A year ago almost unheard for a house to close above $1M. In the first 10 weeks of the year there were ZERO above $1M. There have been 17 so far this year of which 7 were $1.25M+. Not your momma’s MM anymore!

[an]

New high watermark for Mira Mesa: https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7885-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4555873

Wonder when MM will have its first multi-million $ home.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 8 (5) –

New Pendings of 6 (9) –

Closed sales at 10 (7) –

Inventory was 4 last week and 8 now so some improvement. But its all on market a week or less and likely in negotiations. It was 6 this time last year. The median list price is now $972K and was $727K this week last year.

YTD there have been 47 closed SFR sales with median of $1,011,000. Same period last year there were 65 closed sales and median was $760,000.

YTD there have been 7 sales below $850K of which 5 were off market. Any home placed on the open market is gonna be over $850K now.

MM continues its steady march up. No relief in sight

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (5) –

New Pendings of 9 (5) –

Closed sales at 5 (10) –

Inventory was 8 last week and 3 now all should go soon. It was 7 this time last year. The median list price is now $1.15M and was $825K this week last year. Probably skewed a bit higher because of few homes on market but thats 40% higher so take from it what you will.

MM inventory flow has been very consistent for about 1 1/2 to 2 years. This is how markets change over to time to lasting impact.

[limkotir]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7785-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4557024
Initially listed at $1.3m, then two days ago, changed to $1.65m. Is this the winning bid amount?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7885-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4555873
Slightly smaller home but with backyard canyon view at the end of the cul-de-sac sold for $1.585m on 3/8

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/11682-River-Rim-Rd-92126/home/4556159
Another similar home on a different street but within walking distance sold for $1.38m on 2/10… lost out on ~$200K in gains in 1 month?

Is this insanity we’re observing here…? SDRealtor… your thoughts?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=limkotir]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7785-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4557024
Initially listed at $1.3m, then two days ago, changed to $1.65m. Is this the winning bid amount?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7885-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4555873
Slightly smaller home but with backyard canyon view at the end of the cul-de-sac sold for $1.585m on 3/8

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/11682-River-Rim-Rd-92126/home/4556159
Another similar home on a different street but within walking distance sold for $1.38m on 2/10… lost out on ~$200K in gains in 1 month?

Is this insanity we’re observing here…? SDRealtor… your thoughts?[/quote]

When you see a price raised like that it is generally a signal that is the winning bid or close to it.

One thing to note is that these 3 houses are probably best of the best location/lots for existing tract homes in MM. The are also bigger and newer homes than most. Of course 3 Roots will change that. These new high comps pull everything up a bit with them but they are exceptions.

Id say 90% of the sfr market here in MM is the standard 1000 to 1700 sq ft mostly 1 story homes that are still mostly between 800k and 1M. Ive done a fair amount of sales here and still think there are lots of good solid opportunities for buyers here. The key is knowing the lay of the land to get a good lot/location and floorplan to work with. The MM inventory flow has been steady but limited and the good ones are out there.

[limkotir]

3R will a nice master planned community when it up and running. I browse another forum where homeowners and would-be buyers actively discuss various topics.

Of course, what interests me the most is the current price action. And I do wonder if it is a better buy to purchase a newer / resale home in Sorrento Valley, or a home off of Calle Cristobal. Or go to PQ and Carmel Valley.

The entry price to live in 3R is quite steep:
-the purchase price, assume $1.8m for Alta Plan 3B
-1.46% property tax, which includes the SCIP. City of SD standard property tax rate is 1.23%; so another extra 0.23%, or $22,140 Std Prop Tax + $4,140 SCIP
-the $250 to $400 monthly HOA ($3,000 to $4,800)
-the required solar panels (one time $10,000)
-plus upgrades buyers may opt into (XXXX)

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/alta
Alta is the biggest SFH within the 3R community, and below are what’s shared. I am not 100% certain, but I believe all 3R home builders have gone to “bidding style” purchase format.

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/hudson
Hudson, which is attached townhouses, folks are saying they bid 20-30% above the starting price, and still did not hear back or get selected. INSANE!

Homesite 16 Residence 3B – approx. 3,463 Sq.Ft. | 2-story | 5 bedrooms | 4.5 bathrooms | Bonus Room | CA Room | 2-Bay Garage | Private 1 Bay Garage EI Color Package – FGS1 (this selection cannot be changed) Approximate close of escrow date July 2022
Priced at $1,720,900 ** Backyard depth average ~25 feet.

Homesite 68 Residence 3C – approx. 3,463 Sq.Ft. | 2-story | 5 bedrooms | 4.5 bathrooms | Bonus Room | CA Room | 2-Bay Garage | Private 1 Bay Garage EI Color Package – WS2.1 (this selection cannot be changed) Approximate close of escrow date July 2022
Priced at $1,702,900 ** Backyard depth average ~14 feet.

Homesite 13 Residence 2C – approx. 3,341 Sq.Ft. | 2-story | 4 bedrooms | 4.5 bathrooms | Bonus Room | CA Room | 2-Bay Garage | Private 1 Bay Garage EI Color Package – WS2.1 (this selection cannot be changed) Approximate close of escrow date July 2022
Priced at $1,705,900 ** Backyard depth average ~28 feet.

Homesite 71 Residence 1C – approx. 3,157 Sq.Ft. | 2 story | 4 bedrooms | 4.5 bathrooms |Bonus Room | CA Room| Deck | 3-Bay Tandem Garage EI Color Package – FGS1 (this selection cannot be changed) Approximate close of escrow date July 2022
Priced at $1,656,900** Backyard depth average ~17 feet.

[sdrealtor]

They are basically building the equivalent of a country club community in the middle of the SD tech center. It’s hard to apply the old rules there as it’s a completely new category of living.

Which is better? That depends upon the specifics of your individual situation. If your trying to decide find someone capable of helping you figure out the answer. Not someone to tell you the answer but rather someone that fills the gaps in your knowledge base to help you make the best possible decision

[an]

There’s currently only 2 houses for sale in Mira Mesa right now. I don’t think I’ve ever seen inventory this low in the spring.

[sdrealtor]

Negotiating offers I’m certain

[limkotir]

SFHs in MM is quickly running away from first time home buyers, at $1M house with 20% down, or $800k loan at 4%, the monthly mortgage is $3,800 per month, plus property taxes + prop insurance, we are looking at a fixed overhead cost of $5,000 per month, before even turning on lights, internet, gas and water.

In short, $5,000 housing cost commitment is probably in the dual income territory, one person pulling in $150k job, another making a more modest $75k or so.

SDrealtor, what is the social economic profile of your buyers in MM (and Kearny Mesa, Clairemont), if you can share such high level details.

[sdrealtor]

Im just one guy and dont have enough to make a statement right now. Last two both grew up there and are techies. One bought his 1st home a year ago and is looking great. The other bought his 4th property there a few months ago and already looking great on it it He will soon own the whole town LOL

FWIW Ive had 1st time homebuyers put $500K+ down on their first home before. Its not uncommon for immigrant techies to live frugally in apartments while single or recently married and save tons between income and RSUs. Once the kids come and get near school age they buy houses. Thats not something you see in Kansas Toto

[limkotir]

Thanks for the additional colors there.

I also have been pulling down the names of those sold properties per the county property record database, then look up those folks on Google / LinkedIn.

One property sold late last year in Mira Mesa I had my eye on was bought by a VP at LPL (not sure if LPL hands out VP titles like candies), but if that is the type of folks first time home buyers are facing, along with the techies you mentioned from your POV, then most of my peers that are starting families in their 30s won’t stand much of a chance.

[sdrealtor]

One more thing to consider is that the path to homeownership here for most does not begin with a house.

It never has.

I bought my first place in Encinitas in 1997 for $190K scraping together a $10K down payment. It was a townhouse and I felt like the stupidest guy on the planet spending that much and not getting a house.

Two years later I sold it for 250K and was looking to take the next step up which was a starter house around 325K at the time.

I saw some new construction around here. It was the first in many years but it was a much bigger stretch. I would have to take 2 maybe 3 steps up to $400K for a new house. It would also require lots of post move in expenses not the least of which was $50K+ of landscaping. It was scary and a big stretch. But I recognized it was the opportunity of a lifetime to get an amazing place. One I could stay in for decades. Had I not done that I would never be where I am and here I sit.

I share this as an example that the path here unlike many places is a ladder to climb for most. It requires steps, patience, some luck, some good choices and yes some guts.

And in case you are wondering rates were around 9% back then which I couldnt have swung. I started with a 5/1 ARM at 7.5%

And VP’s in financial services are a dime or dozen. Basically marketing title for financial advisors with several years of experience but no real management role over employees

[sdrealtor]

Heading up to LA for a concert so early update. If anything there may be another pending or 2 by my normal data collection time each Tuesday as at least 4 of 5 have multiple offers on them they are negotiaitng on

New listings 2 (7) – market watchers this is # to follow.

New Pendings of 2 (8) –

Closed sales at 4 (4) –

Inventory at 5 but at least 4 if not all 5 working through offers. It was 7 this time last year. The median list price is now $999K and was $829K this week last year.

Only 2 sfr listings this week is anemic. Thats a dead of Winter not a Spring peak selling season number. Anyone watching the market here needs to follow new listing numbers. Interest rates mean little in such a supply constrained market as there are plenty of high down buyers not overly impacted by rates.

Most houses seem to be closing between $50 and 100K over with the exception of the best of the best locations which can go much more.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Heading up to LA for a concert so early update. If anything there may be another pending or 2 by my normal data collection time each Tuesday as at least 4 of 5 have multiple offers on them they are negotiaitng on

New listings 2 (7) – market watchers this is # to follow.

New Pendings of 2 (8) –

Closed sales at 4 (4) –

Inventory at 5 but at least 4 if not all 5 working through offers. It was 7 this time last year. The median list price is now $999K and was $829K this week last year.

Only 2 sfr listings this week is anemic. Thats a dead of Winter not a Spring peak selling season number. Anyone watching the market here needs to follow new listing numbers. Interest rates mean little in such a supply constrained market as there are plenty of high down buyers not overly impacted by rates.

Most houses seem to be closing between $50 and 100K over with the exception of the best of the best locations which can go much more.[/quote]
We definitely were not seeing $50-100k over asking price last year.

[oceanbreeze]

I paid $100K over asking for a Mira Mesa property I acquired back to Jan. At that time I felt pressure of low inventory and rising interest rate, so just told my agent to compete with other offers no matter what.

[limkotir]

[quote=oceanbreeze]I paid $100K over asking for a Mira Mesa property I acquired back to Jan. At that time I felt pressure of low inventory and rising interest rate, so just told my agent to compete with other offers no matter what.[/quote]

Just looked, there is currently One (1) SFH on sale… start look at condos and townhouses as starter homes for now.

I think the MM neighborhood (or was it zip 92126) is the largest community in the City of San Diego (or County?), defined as west of the 15, east of Camino Santa Fe, and north of the industrial park of Miramar has about 80,000 people? Someone who has 2020 census data can correct me here… I’m too busy/lazy to look it up.

[an]

[quote=limkotir][quote=oceanbreeze]I paid $100K over asking for a Mira Mesa property I acquired back to Jan. At that time I felt pressure of low inventory and rising interest rate, so just told my agent to compete with other offers no matter what.[/quote]

Just looked, there is currently One (1) SFH on sale… start look at condos and townhouses as starter homes for now.

I think the MM neighborhood (or was it zip 92126) is the largest community in the City of San Diego (or County?), defined as west of the 15, east of Camino Santa Fe, and north of the industrial park of Miramar has about 80,000 people? Someone who has 2020 census data can correct me here… I’m too busy/lazy to look it up.[/quote]
Make that Zero (0). Mira Mesa is officially sold out.

[sdrealtor]

As I said yesterday. I don’t make things up contrary to what deadzone claims

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]As I said yesterday. I don’t make things up contrary to what deadzone claims[/quote]
I’ve been following Mira Mesa for almost 2 decades now and I have never seen MM sold out.

[limkotir]

[quote=an][quote=sdrealtor]As I said yesterday. I don’t make things up contrary to what deadzone claims[/quote]
I’ve been following Mira Mesa for almost 2 decades now and I have never seen MM sold out.[/quote]

From my perspective, and sdrealtor said it himself, MM is a bit “undervalued” zip area, given its location (no need to explain) and public school performance, relative to the social economic class (or housing hold income level).

Obviously, MM has its own share of baggages and downsides, which we’ll save for another post…

On the public school performance, to buyers that care about such thing, instead of looking at the greatschools, USNews and all the school rating sites, I looked at the UC Admissions data for incoming undergrad freshmen for Fall 2021 (most recent data).

So I checked out how many kids applied vs admitted to Berkeley in the high schools in the within 10 mile radius of MM. (I did not include some high performing south bay and north county schools):

1. Canyon Crest – 53/359
2. Torrey Pines – 26/191
3. La Jolla High – 25/155
4. Del North – 22/187
5. Rancho Bernardo – 15/99
6. University High – 13/96
7. Westview High – 13/193
8. Scripps High – 10/124
9. Mira Mesa 11/69
10. Mt Carmel 9/82
11. Poway High 6/62

I am going to mine 5-years of data and look at UCSD and UCB admissions, obtain the zip household income, to see if which public high schools in SD County always punch above its weight class (social economically). Because we all know better schools is a function of who lives there and what social economic class they belong in — let’s normalize school ratings!

SOURCE (Tableau data table, takes a bit of time to load). https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/about-us/information-center/admissions-source-school

California Public Schools only
Campus = Berkeley
Filter on county = San Diego

[sdrealtor]

[quote=limkotir][quote=an][quote=sdrealtor]As I said yesterday. I don’t make things up contrary to what deadzone claims[/quote]
I’ve been following Mira Mesa for almost 2 decades now and I have never seen MM sold out.[/quote]

From my perspective, and sdrealtor said it himself, MM is a bit “undervalued” zip area, given its location (no need to explain) and public school performance, relative to the social economic class (or housing hold income level).

Obviously, MM has its own share of baggages and downsides, which we’ll save for another post…

On the public school performance, to buyers that care about such thing, instead of looking at the greatschools, USNews and all the school rating sites, I looked at the UC Admissions data for incoming undergrad freshmen for Fall 2021 (most recent data).

So I checked out how many kids applied vs admitted to Berkeley in the high schools in the within 10 mile radius of MM. (I did not include some high performing south bay and north county schools):

1. Canyon Crest – 53/359
2. Torrey Pines – 26/191
3. La Jolla High – 25/155
4. Del North – 22/187
5. Rancho Bernardo – 15/99
6. University High – 13/96
7. Westview High – 13/193
8. Scripps High – 10/124
9. Mira Mesa 11/69
10. Mt Carmel 9/82
11. Poway High 6/62

I am going to mine 5-years of data and look at UCSD and UCB admissions, obtain the zip household income, to see if which public high schools in SD County always punch above its weight class (social economically). Because we all know better schools is a function of who lives there and what social economic class they belong in — let’s normalize school ratings!

SOURCE (Tableau data table, takes a bit of time to load). https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/about-us/information-center/admissions-source-school

California Public Schools only
Campus = Berkeley
Filter on county = San Diego[/quote]

That will be cool and please share. I just found one thing that was really interesting to me.

UCSD 2021 applied/admitted/enrolled

Mira Mesa 153/71/47
Torrey Pines 207/95/37
Canyon Crest 397/177/71

They all have about 46% acceptance but 66% of the MM kids enroll vs about 40% of the CV kids. I guess that makes sense social economically as the MM kids are more prone to live at home and commute but still very impressive numbers

[limkotir]

8576 Andromeda Rd

https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/san-diego/8576-andromeda-rd/pid_45743569/
(Contains the old pic of the house)
Sold for $750K on 2/10/2022

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8576-Andromeda-Rd-92126/home/4527421
(Contains the new flip job pics)
Will list for $1.374m this Sat (~40 days later) with a flip job. Probably will sell around that price.

This is what people are battling in older neighborhoods such as MM.

[oceanbreeze]

[quote=limkotir]8576 Andromeda Rd

https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/san-diego/8576-andromeda-rd/pid_45743569/
(Contains the old pic of the house)
Sold for $750K on 2/10/2022

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8576-Andromeda-Rd-92126/home/4527421
(Contains the new flip job pics)
Will list for $1.374m this Sat (~40 days later) with a flip job. Probably will sell around that price.

This is what people are battling in older neighborhoods such as MM.[/quote]

The flip cost won’t be more than 200K, so flipping old house in MM sounds a profitable business at least for this case.

[sdrealtor]

So this one Id potentially put into the category of primates at play aka monkey business. There are a bunch of large flipper companies that market to agents constantly. I hear from them everyday…every…single …day.

It is a full time business to run an operation like that with staff constantly chasing opportunities and a full time crew to remodel them. The pitch is bring us your upcoming fixer listings off market and you can represent both sides of the transaction. If the deal is good enough they will also give you the listing post remodel which is the case in this one.

These houses are sold without ever being on the open market. The flipper company comes in with all cash, as-is and very quick closing and that is used to rationalize a less than open market price. Some sellers choose that route be it on their own or they are steered that way but suffice to say regular guy/gal on the street is not getting a house like that for a wholeslae price of $750K

On this one it looks like original owner moved to a nice part of SD almost 30 years ago and kept this a rental. These are likely older folks or their heirs. For whatever reason they opted for the fast and easy sale

[anxvariety]

All speculative demand.. will vanish just as quickly as it appeared.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=anxvariety]All speculative demand.. will vanish just as quickly as it appeared.[/quote]

Good luck with that. In a community of 70K plus located around one of the preeminent tech/life sciences cores in the country it doesnt take much to sell 4 houses a week

And this. Good article

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/03/housing-dont-compare-current-housing.html

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=anxvariety]All speculative demand.. will vanish just as quickly as it appeared.[/quote]

Good luck with that. In a community of 70K plus located around one of the preeminent tech/life sciences cores in the country it doesnt take much to sell 4 houses a week

And this. Good article

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/03/housing-dont-compare-current-housing.html%5B/quote%5D
I bet one of those 4 houses already have 20+ offers as we speak.

[an]

[quote=anxvariety]All speculative demand.. will vanish just as quickly as it appeared.[/quote]
You think speculators would put down 200-400k as a down payment?

[limkotir]

[quote=limkotir]8576 Andromeda Rd

https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/san-diego/8576-andromeda-rd/pid_45743569/
(Contains the old pic of the house)
Sold for $750K on 2/10/2022

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8576-Andromeda-Rd-92126/home/4527421
(Contains the new flip job pics)
Will list for $1.374m this Sat (~40 days later) with a flip job. Probably will sell around that price.

This is what people are battling in older neighborhoods such as MM.[/quote]

This house was removed from market a few days ago, then relisted at $1.2M (instead of the prior $1.374m) and immediately went into pending… guess $1.374m was bit aggressive, or was it? Guess we’ll find out in a few weeks.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=oceanbreeze]I paid $100K over asking for a Mira Mesa property I acquired back to Jan. At that time I felt pressure of low inventory and rising interest rate, so just told my agent to compete with other offers no matter what.[/quote]

Congrats and best of luck in your home

[oceanbreeze]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=oceanbreeze]I paid $100K over asking for a Mira Mesa property I acquired back to Jan. At that time I felt pressure of low inventory and rising interest rate, so just told my agent to compete with other offers no matter what.[/quote]

Congrats and best of luck in your home[/quote]

Thanks. I rented it out with 5% annual return rate. This is not bad. I think in 2021 and beginning of 2022 (before rate hike), 92126 is the rare zip code along 56 corridor still investable.

[oceanbreeze]

deleted without proper quoting.

[sdrealtor]

MM continues to be the steady performer.

New listings 4 (8) – seems to avg about about half of last year

New Pendings of 5 (7) – all homes pretty much sell with multiple offers

Closed sales at 8 (12) –

Inventory at 4 of which 1 came back on market/will go right back into escrow and the other 3 should be gone soon. It was 9 last year. The median is 1.186M vs 799K. This year a bit high because of such low inventory skewing it but prices definitely feel a good 30% up since last year

I see no signs of change or weakness in anyway here as I toggle through the individual listings in each category

[an]

I can’t believe we’re talking about $1m+ as a median in MM.

[limkotir]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7852-Tampico-Ct-92126/home/4570382

The above beauty went into pending…in normal times, would have been a decent first time buyer and courageous DIYer purchase. If I had to bet, a cash offer with no contingences probably took it into pending status.

I am guess it will sell for $825K, any over and under calls?

[an]

[quote=limkotir]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7852-Tampico-Ct-92126/home/4570382

The above beauty went into pending…in normal times, would have been a decent first time buyer and courageous DIYer purchase. If I had to bet, a cash offer with no contingences probably took it into pending status.

I am guess it will sell for $825K, any over and under calls?[/quote]
I say $875k

[sdrealtor]

[quote=limkotir]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7852-Tampico-Ct-92126/home/4570382

The above beauty went into pending…in normal times, would have been a decent first time buyer and courageous DIYer purchase. If I had to bet, a cash offer with no contingences probably took it into pending status.

I am guess it will sell for $825K, any over and under calls?[/quote]

House was sold as is cash only and definitely over 800k. I’ll say 860k

[limkotir]

[quote=limkotir]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7852-Tampico-Ct-92126/home/4570382

The above beauty went into pending…in normal times, would have been a decent first time buyer and courageous DIYer purchase. If I had to bet, a cash offer with no contingences probably took it into pending status.

I am guess it will sell for $825K, any over and under calls?[/quote]

3/30: listed for $745k
4/23: sold for $906k

I said $825k
an said $875k
sdrealtor said $860k

[sdrealtor]

Haven’t checked yet but my guess is went to pro flippers who can turn that place around for $50k or less. I’d guess we see it back on market late May or early June for $1.075m and goes with multiple offers

[sdrealtor]

Just an FYI I came upon an interesting data point. Last year inventory here was in double digits from the beginning of May until Mid November and single digits the rest of the year. If inventory relief is gonna happen its gonna start real soon

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]Just an FYI I came upon an interesting data point. Last year inventory here was in double digits from the beginning of May until Mid November and single digits the rest of the year. If inventory relief is gonna happen its gonna start real soon[/quote]

And just like that….

Day of golf yesterday but ran the data and things are progressing as predicted.

New listings 7 (5) – one of the higher counts the last couple months as expected post tax season and May around the corner

New Pendings of 7 (8) – steady as she goes

Closed sales at 8 (7) –

Inventory at 11 with median of 997K. Last year it was 3 with median of 765K.

The demand has definitely slowed but there is still plenty of demand for the slow, steady trickle of supply. Inventory should build slowly into the 20’s and 30’s unless we start getting 20+ new listings a week for a few months. Then we would rise a bit higher.

Lets see what happens next but for now its still the steady, consistent market its been for quite a while. Only time will tell

[sdrealtor]

I think we can say the market is coming into or already back into balance.

New listings 10 (11) – increasing as expected

New Pendings of 4 (4) – lots more choices and would expect an uptick next week

Closed sales at 2 (4) –

Inventory at 19 with median of 975K. Last year it was 11 with median of 800K.

Demand has been creeping down as there hasnt been much to buy but now there are a bunch of nice choices out there listed at fair prices not reaching. This should be where market comes into balance or shifts. If I was looking Id watch to see if demand increases as it seasonally should. If it doesnt I think once inventory gets much above 30 things will start shifting towards the buyers. I’d keep looking and watching for the good ones (good location/lot). Learn how to identify them immediately. Based upon past years data, pendings should be close to or above 10 the next 4 to 6 weeks.

[an]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7833-Backer-Rd-92126/home/4857038?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant

Pending after 6 days. Same house probably would go for about 850-900k last year and about 575k 5 years ago.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=an]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7833-Backer-Rd-92126/home/4857038?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant

Pending after 6 days. Same house probably would go for about 850-900k last year and about 575k 5 years ago.[/quote]

We are by no means done and nowhere close to any downturn. With higher inventory MM should churn out 10+ pendings a week as it has picked up the pace to.

No surprise this went fast and for top dollar. Truly one of the really nice spots in MM as you well know. As a market watcher where you want to look for the first signs of slowing down are less desireable lots/locations. Thats where it will show up first. They will still sell but the market will differentiate on price more as a frenzy slows.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=an]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7833-Backer-Rd-92126/home/4857038?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant

Pending after 6 days. Same house probably would go for about 850-900k last year and about 575k 5 years ago.[/quote]

We are by no means done and nowhere close to any downturn. With higher inventory MM should churn out 10+ pendings a week as it has picked up the pace to.

No surprise this went fast and for top dollar. Truly one of the really nice spots in MM as you well know. As a market watcher where you want to look for the first signs of slowing down are less desireable lots/locations. Thats where it will show up first. They will still sell but the market will differentiate on price more as a frenzy slows.[/quote]
100% agree. I just wish deadzone is correct about RE crashing in the next year. Would love to pick something like this up for pre-pandemic price. I would guess something like this would go for ~$750k.

[limkotir]

Nice property and location. Would go for list price + some more.

Does a sunroom require permit?

Having looked at some MM houses, it seems like there have been quite a bit of non-permitted work done to the non-HOA in many 1970s SFH by prior owners.

What is the corrective action or treatment by the County on a property that added on 250 sq feet of unpermitted living space? Or because of the hot market of 2020-22, sellers are making buyers take off all non-contingencies.

[sdrealtor]

Some have been permited and others not. Id say it would be rare for it to be an issue with city/county. They have bigger things to be concerned with. As a buyer your main concern is it built in a workmanlike manner professionally? Its pretty much always been this way hot market or not

[sdrealtor]

SEttling into balance continues.

New listings 7 (10) – would like to see closer to 10+

New Pendings of 11 (124) – lots more choices and as expected an uptick this week

Closed sales at 5 (6) –

Inventory at 19 with median of 999K. Last year it was 11 with median of 849K.

We saw the double digit pendings I set as benchmark we should see indicating market still strong. Inventory up over last year but same as last week/around where it sat most of last Summer. Whats on the market is either just listed or a tad too high and sitting.

The market looks like it should chug along here like this for another month or two. Once we get to late June I expect things to slow down more. For now the crazy bidding wars are over. Houses sell at or around asking in most cases as long as priced at recent comparable sales. It feels like a nice stable market here for now.

[sdrealtor]

MM is holding up well. In general listings and supply are not increasing much but demand is slowing. Its more pronounced elsewhere than here at least for now

New listings 2 (6) – the lack of supply should keep this market stronger than some others

New Pendings of 8 (12) – demand is falling but just not much supply

Closed sales at 5 (14) –

Inventory at 14 with median of 1.057M. Last year it was 9 with median of 859K.

As I thought market is chugging along and will continue to do unless new listings spike up dramatically. We didnt get double digit pendings but inventory is down a good amount week over week because we only got 2 new listings. Market here feels like it is settling into more balance. This is what a soft landing could look like

[sdrealtor]

MM is settling into balance thus far. Under $1M generally stronger than over as it should be.

New listings 9 (10) – more inventory this week but not a ton

New Pendings of 7 (5) – pretty steady

Closed sales at 5 (9) –

Inventory at 20 with median of 1.1M. Last year it was 17 with median of 860K.

Looking back at May we had slightly more pendings than new listings. Last year we had slightly more new lsitings than pendings. Inventory finally hit 20 and should stay between 20 and 30 through September before falling into year end if typical seasonal patterns hold.

With 20 homes on the market, buyers can go out and look at a bunch each weekend. We are starting to have more balance in the market.

As I mentioned a month ago it should and has started building into the 20’s and should reach 30. Hard to say which way things go from here but for now its a better market for buyers than its been all year. I still think we’ll know we are shifting towards a buyers market when/if inventory gets well above 30. Until then we are pretty well balanced

[sdrealtor]

MM still in balance thus far.

New listings 8 (10) –

New Pendings of 11 (15) – this was one of the biggest pending weeks of the last year and it is again this year

Closed sales at 10 (3) –

Inventory at 22 with median of 1.085M. Last year it was 16 with median of 885K.

Market seems well balanced. Some optimitic sellers still out there overpriced but also some doing a good job adjusting until they find market level. Overall this feels like a market that is not going much down or up. Nice and steady

[Escoguy]

Appreciate these updates, I gave a ride to a Google employee who works at the facility off MM. She mentioned they are expanding.

There are quite a few Apple employees in my building in UTC so hard to see MM area softening any time soon.

Nice and steady is good.

[sdrealtor]

Balance starting to shift a little to buyers finally. This is when market starts to slow down as focus shifts to Summer vacation. Its also when late sellers hit the market. Typically inventory rises through June and July peaking sometime in August before dropping the rest of the year.

New listings 13 (7) – highest count in last 18 months but not by much. Nice to see more come on

New Pendings of 12 (12) – this was the biggest pending week of the year as it should be with more inventory

Closed sales at 6 (8) –

Inventory at 27 with median of 1.1M. Last year it was 14 with median of 825K.

Inventory has been building here with a little more coming on the market than usual but new pendings are hitting highs for the year as buyers finally have choices. A couple weeks back I said we should hit 30 and we are getting close. When/If we pass 40 it should benefit buyers. However its hard to say how long that will last unless we see a flood of new inventory. If it continues on this path its what a soft landing should look like.

[JPJones]

[quote=sdrealtor]Balance starting to shift a little to buyers finally. This is when market starts to slow down as focus shifts to Summer vacation. Its also when late sellers hit the market. Typically inventory rises through June and July peaking sometime in August before dropping the rest of the year.

New listings 13 (7) – highest count in last 18 months but not by much. Nice to see more come on

New Pendings of 12 (12) – this was the biggest pending week of the year as it should be with more inventory

Closed sales at 6 (8) –

Inventory at 27 with median of 1.1M. Last year it was 14 with median of 825K.

Inventory has been building here with a little more coming on the market than usual but new pendings are hitting highs for the year as buyers finally have choices. A couple weeks back I said we should hit 30 and we are getting close. When/If we pass 40 it should benefit buyers. However its hard to say how long that will last unless we see a flood of new inventory. If it continues on this path its what a soft landing should look like.[/quote]

Straight off a cliff, I say!

[sdrealtor]

LOL not even close yet. If you ask some newer realtors they may feel that way. They have seen nothing but boom times for the last decade. Having done this for 20+ years I know what normal markets look/feel like. We are far from going off a cliff so far

[JPJones]

[quote=sdrealtor]LOL not even close yet. If you ask some newer realtors they may feel that way. They have seen nothing but boom times for the last decade. Having done this for 20+ years I know what normal markets look/feel like. We are far from going off a cliff so far[/quote]
Love the qualifiers! (Yet, so far)

I’m not cheering for a crash, just preparing for one knowing the fallout from the last one. I just hope we learned some lessons and it isn’t as bad.

[sdrealtor]

I don’t see how it could be as bad and yes definitely qualifiers as this is a very different situation. Even people buying at what feels like the top of the market put a lot of money down and financed with fully qualified record low interest rates in nearly every case. That is 180° different than last time. The only way we can really crash here is with non-discretionary sellers. The presence of what I just laid out greatly diminishes the amount of those potentially in that category. At this point even in the case of a prolong economic downturn it’s tough to predict how things would roll out here

[JPJones]

[quote=sdrealtor]I don’t see how it could be as bad and yes definitely qualifiers as this is a very different situation. Even people buying at what feels like the top of the market put a lot of money down and financed with fully qualified record low interest rates in nearly every case. That is 180° different than last time. The only way we can really crash here is with non-discretionary sellers. The presence of what I just laid out greatly diminishes the amount of those potentially in that category. At this point even in the case of a prolong economic downturn it’s tough to predict how things would roll out here[/quote]

How long until those with locked in record low rates run out? Mid June, roughly? That’s what I’m waiting to see. End of July is the next marker I’m watching for after that.

[sdrealtor]

Those locked into low rates have been gone for a solid month. Don’t forget we still have the transition to 5/7/10-1 arms. Sales will go down the unknown is much inventory do we get and how motivated are sellers. We should see some price erosion through year end but nothing major. Then we hit Spring again. It’s at least a year until we could see bigger changes. Between them and now who knows what else can change?

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Those locked into low rates have been gone for a solid month. Don’t forget we still have the transition to 5/7/10-1 arms. Sales will go down the unknown is much inventory do we get and how motivated are sellers. We should see some price erosion through year end but nothing major. Then we hit Spring again. It’s at least a year until we could see bigger changes. Between them and now who knows what else can change?[/quote]
It’ll be interesting to see how this play out. How sticky will the price be…

[sdrealtor]

So this was a week last year that I was away and missed so no year over year figures.

Market continues to shift into balance. Last week I mentioned this was when things start to slow down each year. This year was no exception but there is something more going on. In a typical year demand slows but supply does not yet. This year both did quite a bit.

New listings 5

New Pendings of 5

Closed sales at 7

Inventory at 27 with median of 1.083M.

This looks like it could be the beginning of a market shifting into stagnancy. The mainstream media is starting to write about this also. Demand is falling rapidly but new supply is also. We could settle in to a narrow range where volume is very low without much movement on pricing unless supply starts spiking.

https://money.yahoo.com/housing-market-hibernation-191801666.html

One thing to look for with low demand is the departure of many of my colleagues over the next couple years. Less volume, less paychecks for agents. This could and should happen regardless of what happens with pricing.

Today we saw two of the poster child brokerages for living off of public market money (Redfin and Compass) announce significant layoffs. Pricing of homes is not particuarly relevant to them. Sales volume is relevant to them and thats falling quickly.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/real-estate-firms-compass-and-redfin-announce-layoffs-as-housing-market-slows.html

Will be interesting to watch this all and I’ll be in my front row seat throw it all. Im built for this and not going anywhere

[sdrealtor]

I owe you all an update. Back to year over year comps too

New listings 7 (9)

New Pendings of 6 (11)

Closed sales at 5 (7)

Inventory at 29 (18) with median of 1.08M (825K).

Once again a solid market. The massive overbidding is past and overpricing without adjusting will leave you sitting. However at the end of the day about 1 house is going in escrow everyday and we’ve got 29 on the market which is about a month inventory. Its still tilted toward sellers despite some softness in pricing

[sdrealtor]

I think we can say we are now pretty much a balanced market despite inventory still being under 1 1/2 months.

New listings 9 (7)

New Pendings of 3 (6)

Closed sales at 9 (15)

Inventory at 34 (20) with median of 1.025M (850K)

A relatively slow week but it was last year also. Inventory continues to build and there are now a handful on the market in the 800’s. Inventory will keep building the next few weeks. If you’re a buyer keep watching this thread to follow direction of the market and think in terms of being ready come mid/late October pending conditions following the current trend.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 9 (9)

New Pendings of 9 (9)

Closed sales at 5 (4)

Inventory at 37 (23) with median of 1.04M (850K)

Inventory continues creeping up slowly. Buyers have choices now but most inventory still 900K+. Much of the comps were achieved starting low and letting market bid up prices but with slower pace the sellers are looking at comps and trying to draw a line in the sand. Thats contributing to rise in inventory.

Inventory is a little higher than I would have guessed it would reach a month or two ago but not excessive by any means. I figured we would peak around this level but I think we will see a bit more growth now. With that said we should be close to peak inventory here and would expect it to level and then start dropping again by Summers end. For now market still mostly in balance

[sdrealtor]

New listings 10 (10)

New Pendings of 4 (8)

Closed sales at 7 (11)

Inventory at 44 (25) with median of 997K (855K)

Inventory still climbing but if past patterns hold should peak soon. Sellers starting to adjust to new market reality but most are still holding the line for now. There are 15 houses under 900K now with most in the 800’s but a few under. Looking at last 4 weeks pending counts vs inventory we are up to 2 months here. Buyers seem to have slight advantage now

[an]

Fingers cross that we’ll see some good deal in 5 months, in the midst of winter.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 (7)

New Pendings of 12 (18)

Closed sales at 5 (6)

Inventory at 37 (16) with median of 975K (850K)

Well that didnt last long and the seasonal pattern came rolling in. This was a big week for pendings v new listings last year also. Inventory dropped almost 20% in a week and inventory is back well under 1.5 months. We may have hit peak inventory for the year last week. But lets see what comes our way the next two weeks before calling that. Another week or two like this and we are on our way to a soft landing..

One thing of note is the fixers arent getting swooped up by flippers immediately creating opportunities for homeowner buyers looking for them. Thats a positive developement

[sdrealtor]

most new listings get entered wednesday through friday, so far 3 this week.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 7 (10)

New Pendings of 2 (9)

Closed sales at 2 (8)

Inventory at 40 (120) with median of 937K (868K)

Inventory creeped back up a bit but still under high of the year (44). Observed a couple interesting things. There were 3 more pendings that quickly fell out out. The other thing Im seeing is the median is being pulled down by a bunch of fixers that 6 months ago wouldve been snapped up by flippers. I noted last week that fixers were starting to sit which I think is positive for entry level buyers looking to get in. We just need those prices to make sense for them. Looks like most of the flippers got their flips sold also

[an]

Unfortunately, at the current interest rate, price would have to drop dramatically from here for it to make sense (comparable to late 2021 PITI level).

[sdrealtor]

New listings 7 (11)

New Pendings of 7 (12)

Closed sales at 6 (8)

Inventory at 41 (18) with median of 979K (875K)

Looking back inventory here has been more or less flat for 4 weeks.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 7 (8)

New Pendings of 10 (9)

Closed sales at 4 (9)

Inventory at 38 (20) with median of 985K (875K)

Looking back inventory here has been more or less flat for 5 weeks.
pendings. This year 32 new listings and 27 pendings this july. Last year there were 36 new listings and 29 pendings this july

[sdrealtor]

Catching up on what I didnt have time to post Tuesday

New listings 7 (10)

New Pendings of 11 (9)

Closed sales at 11 (13)

Inventory at 32 (22)

Again no surge in new inventory and pendings have been up the last 2 weeks. With better pricing it looks like some buyers are coming back. Inventory dipped the last week and is now about 25% below July peak inventory level. Also gap between last year and this year inventory seems to be narrowing.

[an]

Rough eye balling, I think we’re about 10-15 above this time last year in nominal price. Add in a massive increase in rates, the monthly payment is drastically higher today than this time last year. One lesson to learn over the last year is, nominal price doesn’t all at the same rate as interest rate increase, so if you’re borrowing to buy a house, lower price doesn’t always mean lower monthly payment.

[sdrealtor]

Got a first ever this week

New listings Big Fat 0 (8)

New Pendings of 4 (9)

Closed sales at 8 (12)

Inventory at 32 (26) with median of 952K (867K). In line with an commment last week median is about 10% above last year.

I cant remember a week with no new lstings. Inventory stays flat with some falling out of contract and some that took a week or two off coming back to try again.

Gonna make a prediction. With new listings as anemic as they are at some point betyween now and y/e we will be at least flat y-o-y on inventory here. That would bode well for at least flatsville next Spring

[sdrealtor]

New listings 8 (8)

New Pendings of 10 (10)

Closed sales at 8 (13)

Inventory at 32 (24)

Prices are down a nice bit the last few months but enough long time owners are willing to take what market bears. Inventory is staying flat for now but I still think we will see flat y-o-y on inventory here by end of December.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 8 (6)

New Pendings of 7 (8)

Closed sales at 7 (8)

Inventory at 34 (20)

Interesting that the sellers strike isnt as impactful here. Listings have been very consistent not just lately but the entire 20 months Ive been tracking here. There are a good amount of homes coming on the market being sold by long time owners who have passed or aged out. This seems to be a market more impacted by lifecycle events than up in NCC. Its is remarkably consistent and stable here

[jmw]

The mix of houses is interesting too. Flips that aren’t selling sitting out there with a good number of fixers

[sdrealtor]

Trip 7’s!

New listings 7 (10)

New Pendings of 7 (138)

Closed sales at 7 (12)

Inventory at 34 (19) with median of 980 (857).

The trend of most new listings coming from long time owners continues. Some nice spot to be on the market right now. Median asking has dropped and Id guess median sales price moreso but gains over last year are holding so far and nowhere near flat yet y-o-y. Ran a check on last 30 days and its about 932K median vs 858K same period last year

[sdrealtor]

New listings 3 (7)

New Pendings of 8 (12)

Closed sales at 7 (10)

Inventory at 32 (20) with median of 992 (849).

Inventory continues to creep down here. Its dropped about 30% since mid July. Last year it continued on that path until Mid Nov before a bunch took off for the holidays and it didnt recover all Spring. Looking at what is on the market Id guess they are less likely to take it off for the holidays. A bunch of oldtime owners selling vacant homes but something to watch

[sdrealtor]

New listings 2 (8)

New Pendings of 6 (9)

Closed sales at 4 (12)

Inventory at 29 (18) with median of 985 (855)

Inventory continues creeping down and off July peak count by 1/3. Chugging along here. Anecdotally from what Ive seen here and other similar priced markets, the market in this range is holding up better than higher priced markets.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (9)

New Pendings of 3 (9)

Closed sales at 11 (9)

Inventory at 27 (17) with median of 985 (850)

Bit of a down week for pendings as rates bite into demand. From time to time I look back at my posts from the past as well as the trends I see on my spreadsheet.

Last year we normalized sales above $1m in MM. We also normalized sales of the typical one story 3 or 4 BR between 1100 and 1400 sq ft in the high 900’s/low 1M range through Spring. Now I see a re-normalizing of those homes selling in the 800’s now (skewing toward mid to high 800’s). There are a bunch (about 10) on the market in that range right now and Id suspect we’ll see them gradually sell over the next few months. Above that seems to have gotten tougher

[sdrealtor]

New listings 5 (10)

New Pendings of 6 (14)

Closed sales at 2 (6)

Inventory at 29 (16) with median of 965 (887)

Pendings bounced back to the range we’ve been seeing. Market feels well balanced here for now

[sdrealtor]

New listings 2 (4)

New Pendings of 5 (10)

Closed sales at 5 (7)

Inventory at 28 (12) with median of 980 (918)

MM just keeps chugging along with inventory gradually being depleted. Inventory up in NCC is off 25% from July peak while its down 36% here. Id credit the more affordable housing combined with the ongoing gentrification in MM with lots of new commerical being added along MM Blvd as well as 3 Roots. The sense I get is this area will hit its floor before mine and may not be that far off it

Time to go watch some baseball at Petco

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (9)

New Pendings of 6 (9)

Closed sales at 6 (13)

Inventory at 24 (12) with median of 949 (929)

More of the same here. Of note the median list price is edging closer and closer to being flat y-o-y and should be negative in a month based upon current trends and last year. Of course rates were around 3% last year so still adavantage to purchasers then

Saw a great but losing effort by my Phillies on Tuesday at Petco but oh boy did I see an incredible one Sunday night at Citizens Bank:)

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (8)

New Pendings of 3 (8)

Closed sales at 5 (8)

Inventory at 27 (17) with median of 945 (900)

Little bouncing around of the data possibly due to small sample size but we do have a little more inventory mostly due to less selling.

Last year our market exploded in Spring due to low inventory and low rates. In the last 5 weeks we’ve gotten 19 new listings here. Last year there were 40 over the same period. Not saying we are gonna take off but that does bode well for some relative strenght coming back for sellers. Of course with rates continuing their upward track that will counter a lot if not all of this.

[nostradamus]

Please also include:

The number of homes on the market for 30+ days (27)

The number of price reductions in the past 30 days (9)

[sdrealtor]

Stick to your day job. That link includes 10 unbuilt new construction for various models in 3 Roots that are not attached to a single property and have been in those listings for months

[nostradamus]

All that kool-aid has made you defensive. My comment should help you understand what info people actually want to see, but please continue posting that sweet, sweet sunshine with no links to support it.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=nostradamus]All that kool-aid has made you defensive. My comment should help you understand what info people actually want to see, but please continue posting that sweet, sweet sunshine with no links to support it.[/quote]

Uhh i post actual data every week. Your link included advertisements for a new builder for unbuilt homes. There’s one listing for each floorplan. There’s no sunshine in my post just reality. Sorry if it’s not as bad as you hoped it would be

My data shows exactly what is happening and I’ve pointed out what is happening with prices (they are down about 15% of Spring peak numbers in most of SD). New pendings are way down but new listings are down almost as much. That indicates we will continue to see declines but they will be muted by limited inventory giving time and inflation the ability to do their thing.

[an]

[quote=nostradamus]Please also include:

The number of homes on the market for 30+ days (27)

The number of price reductions in the past 30 days (9)[/quote]
3Roots houses don’t count. So, houses with 30+ days on the market are 17. 5 of those 17 are over 100 days and 4 of those 5 have no price reduction. It doesn’t seem like people are rushing to sell. It’ll be interesting to see what the numbers will look like next month when a lot of people pull their house off the market due to the holidays.

What’s more impressive is, even when rates have gone up from 3% to 7%, the median is still up 5% YoY.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 7 (9)

New Pendings of 7 (9)

Closed sales at 2 (10)

Inventory at 31 (18) with median of 957 (857)

Another slight uptick in inventory. When I look at the compostion of the inventory, pricing seems to be part of the issue here. The market is steadier up to high 800’s and most recent closings have been in low to mid 800’s for the regular homes but most listings are still in 900’s. Pricing is where it is and sellers need to catch up with where market is. Should be one more week of flattish inventory and in two weeks seasonal decline should begin.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 1 (8)

New Pendings of 7 (11)

Closed sales at 3 (13)

Inventory at 24 (14) with median of 999 (950)

Big drop in inventory due to a slightly surprising bump in new pendings. I dont expect much in the way of new inventory the rest of the year. With continued sales trickling in and some folks taking the holidays off we could get back to single digits by y/e.

Oh and this is why as a buyer you stay active this time of year. Someone snagged this for what looks like a good deal that will stand the test of time.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/11025-Bootes-St-92126/home/4796460

Same model around corner similar lot/location with what Id call maybe a $100K remodel not a $275K one

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8911-Centaurus-Way-92126/home/4799231

[sdrealtor]

New listings 3 (4)

New Pendings of 2 (14)

Closed sales at 6(6)

Inventory at 23 (7) with median of 984 (969)

Starting into the holiday lull. Most interesting to me is that median list price this year vs last year is inching toward last years figure. Last year we had bidding wars over asking and this year we have some negotiating taking place. The year over year gains are pretty much gone here now

[sdrealtor]

Sorry was out golfing in the desert for a few dys. Time to catch up

New listings 1 (1)

New Pendings of 1 (6)

Closed sales at 7(13)

Inventory at 22 (4) with median of 999 (981)

Well into the holiday lull with not much coming on or selling.

One thing I noticed a couple weeks ago but didnt feel I had enough evidence to write about is fewer sellers seemed to be taking homes off for the holidays. I think I can call that a trend now and a slightly ominous one at that. I can think of two reasons for this. First with prices in decline and less selling, homesellers are less optimistic about waiting for Spring. Second with sales volume down there are hungry agents advising clients to keep trying. I think a little of both at play here

[an]

Interesting analysis about sellers not taking homes off the market. Yet median yoy is still positive. Wonder if we’ll finally see negative yoy in the spring.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 2 (1)

New Pendings of 5 (4)

Closed sales at 6(10)

Inventory at 18 (2) with median of 999 (981)

Last year virtually nothing on the market this time of year. This year a decent but declining supply. In the last 4 weeks, twice as much as has gone pending (15) as has come on the market(7). Slowly eating away at the inventory.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]Haven’t checked yet but my guess is went to pro flippers who can turn that place around for $50k or less. I’d guess we see it back on market late May or early June for $1.075m and goes with multiple offers[/quote]

OK just checked. Buyer was rep’d by agent who lives in MM and has contractor husband. Pretty sure they are the buyers. They did 2 nice flips last year. Id expect this to be their next one

[an]

[quote=limkotir][quote=limkotir]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7852-Tampico-Ct-92126/home/4570382

The above beauty went into pending…in normal times, would have been a decent first time buyer and courageous DIYer purchase. If I had to bet, a cash offer with no contingences probably took it into pending status.

I am guess it will sell for $825K, any over and under calls?[/quote]

3/30: listed for $745k
4/23: sold for $906k

I said $825k
an said $875k
sdrealtor said $860k[/quote]Woohoo, I’m the closest lol

[limkotir]

[quote=an]I can’t believe we’re talking about $1m+ as a median in MM.[/quote]

I think the listing data is left skewed distribution due to what’s being listed, and the sample size is tiny, but if we looked at SFH for the last 50 sales, I think we may be still be under that $1m median midpoint magical mark, but it won’t hold much longer if the current trend keeps up.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=limkotir][quote=an]I can’t believe we’re talking about $1m+ as a median in MM.[/quote]

I think the listing data is left skewed distribution due to what’s being listed, and the sample size is tiny, but if we looked at SFH for the last 50 sales, I think we may be still be under that $1m median midpoint magical mark, but it won’t hold much longer if the current trend keeps up.[/quote]

Yes that is exactly the factors I was referencing on the skew. With only 4 houses of which two are high end for MM the high current median reflects that.

I know you are a datahound also so I ran closed sales over the last 60 days for 92126. There were 47closed sales with a median list price of $925. The median closed sale price is $1.02M so we are already legitmately over $1M.

If I add 92121 we gain 6 more sales and median sales price goes to $1.03M.

Welcome to Beverly Mesa

[sdrealtor]

First signs of a change in the market appearing. Not so much here as up along NCC but next 2 weeks will be very telling.

New listings 9 (10) – this week was bigger last year also. Need to watch what happens next week

New Pendings of 6 (9) – steady with previous weeks but usually starts ramping up in weeks after tax season. Another thing to follow

Closed sales at 6 (7) –

Inventory at 9 with median of 1M. Last year it was 10 with median of 782K.

This is the time when we start seeing a step up in supply each year. Also not usual for pendings to slip a couple weeks around tax deadline before they start stepping up. Im seeing more of a change elsewhere than here but first time Im feeling the market has shifted its balance of power. Next two weeks will tell that story particularly the the second one.

[sdrealtor]

No weakness here. 3 more houses went pending in last day with more to follow soon

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]No weakness here. 3 more houses went pending in last day with more to follow soon[/quote]
Houses are still flying off the shelves. There are only 3 houses on the market for more than 10 days and 0 are on the market for more than 2 weeks.

[limkotir]

New high SFH price for 92126 is in – $1.61m

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7785-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4557024

[an]

[quote=limkotir]New high SFH price for 92126 is in – $1.61m

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7785-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4557024%5B/quote%5D
That was quick!

[sdrealtor]

Remember last week I said the market looked to be changing? Forget I said that. Update tomorrow

[sdrealtor]

As I hinted yesterday. Any sign of a market slowing vanished this week. I did mention that things are tougher around now to predict as tax season usually mutes things. The next two weeks should give us more info and then May our strongest month most years.

New listings 1 (4) – this week was way down. The week before and during tax deadline usually are but this was really low

New Pendings of 8 (11) – strong week and with tax season past should only get stronger

Closed sales at 7 (5) –

Inventory at 5 with median of 1M. Last year it was 6 with median of 799K.

The market here has been very consistent all year. It showed a slight softness a couple weeks ago but Im gonna call that tax season related. The party typically starts now with more inventory coming in the face of peak demand.

I follow inventory flow around the country. Month over month inventory is growing in almost every city except here. Our new listing count is down the most in the country. I understand the macro-economic headwinds in the country and what this tells me is there is something else going on here. SD is currently and has been the biggest exception nationally

Something like this

[limkotir]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10975-Bali-Ln-92126/home/4568514

https://www.apartmentlist.com/ca/san-diego/10977-bali-lane-studio-a

Per the description of the MLS posting and pictures, and other links I found, looks like this SFH in Mira Mesa has been carved up into 3 units, 10977, 10977-A and -B “apartment” studio units. Is this legal and lawful?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=limkotir]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10975-Bali-Ln-92126/home/4568514

https://www.apartmentlist.com/ca/san-diego/10977-bali-lane-studio-a

Per the description of the MLS posting and pictures, and other links I found, looks like this SFH in Mira Mesa has been carved up into 3 units, 10977, 10977-A and -B “apartment” studio units. Is this legal and lawful?[/quote]

If done correctly it is now. You can have an ADU and a JADU in addition to a main house.

[Coronita]

These will rent like hotcakes to UCSD students.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Coronita]These will rent like hotcakes to UCSD students.[/quote]

What he said and what I was thinking

[sdrealtor]

Side note. The sellers continue to list the “bread and butter” smaller 1 story homes not being flipped at attractive levels and letting buyers bid them up. I think that will bode well for the health of the market here. When sellers start pushing price too much buyers tend to start pushing back. I think I may be starting to see some of that along the NCC and will be watching to see what happens.

[Coronita]

damn those lizards in far flung areas with no walls.

[gzz]

Never gets old when Mira Mesa is the topic:

https://sdheadliner.com/neighborhoods/ocean-levels-rise-drastically-overnight-mira-mesa-now-beachfront-property/

https://sdheadliner.com/neighborhoods/city-improvements/new-prison-conveniently-built-next-to-mira-mesa-high-school/

https://sdheadliner.com/neighborhoods/people-from-sorrento-mesa-hate-being-affiliated-with-mira-mesa/

[an]

Those damn walls and lizards.

Would be interesting to see how http://www.live3roots.com/ will affect houses in Southwest MM. There will be a trail head at the end of Parkdale Ave leading down to the trail system.

Especially when https://calwestliving.com/residences/brio CalWest house 2500-2700sq-ft will be listing in the low $1M.

Lennar will have model as big as 3600 sq-ft. https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/san-diego/san-diego/3-roots/alta/residence-3

[sdrealtor]

Yup kinda bullish on MM. High prices/nicer homes bring more educated professionals to the area who fix up homes raising comps. They also bring their kids to schools that suddenly start rapidly ascending the rankings creating a vicious cycle not unlike what San Elijo did for SM. I think its just gonna take a bit longer as not much new construction and so many folks dug in. Also TBD is what impact ADU’s will have as there could be a bunch of homes converted to triplexes so good for investors but if too many negative for owner occ’s. I think this will be a good one to follow

[gzz]

3roots looks stunning and well designed.

The prices don’t seem bad either, but it is unclear just how crowded the houses are from a quick look.

I like that they are doing 3 floor homes in a suburban area.

[sdrealtor]

FWIW dont love 3 floor homes especially townhomes. They always seem to lag the greater market. But thats what they build these days so you give up some upside for a very nice newer home to live in. Fair compromise for young families

[an]

They will be crowded. The lots are planned to be smaller than typical Mira Mesa lot. So, the houses are bigger but the yard will be smaller.

[gzz]

AN i feel more comfortable in an old smaller house on big lot as in MM than the newer style I associate with Carmel Valley (I’ve seen similar in Dana Point).

But as long as you’re gonna have big homes on small lots, 3roots seems to have a great design.

When I was in DC i rented in the Foxhall part of Georgetown on a street of 4000+SF tudor townhouses with 3 floors + basement and typically 5-7 beds 4-5 baths, lavish street landscaping, and 15×30 back yards. I liked this better, as long as you’re going to put houses so close together, might as well connect them to lower building costs and increase SF. This wouldn’t be for everybody here, but it is a shame our zoning rules don’t seem to allow or promote this at all. Both DC and SF have newer construction in this basic size and style.

[Coronita]

Lizards moving upscale and are now “Les Lizardos” !!!

The up and coming Beverly Lizardo Hills 92126!!!

[an]

Mo walls mo $$

[sdrealtor]

Gridlocked nirvana!

[an]

With unbearable HEAT!

[Coronita]

Pretty soon, streets in MM will be gentrified and renamed to things like

Rue De Le Lizardo

[gzz]

Rue de les Lézards!

Not to be confused with Lazard Frères.

[jmw]

I hope there’s a pop in inventory some time in the next few years to provide another buying opportunity in this area, because I definitely agree with these comments about the long term outlook. 3Roots doesn’t appear to be that pop of inventory since they’re already spoken for. Maybe it’s when the last remaining original owner holdouts move out.

[sdrealtor]

Change comes much slower than people expect but it picks up inertia once it gets going and 3Roots will be the start of a big shift IMO.

I moved to Encinitas in 1997 and it was a pretty sleepy place back then. There was only one restaurant (The Roadhouse) that we could go out and have a nice sit down meal at 9 PM. That all started to change (albeit slowly) shortly thereafter with the arrival of communities like La Costa valley and Encinitas Ranch.

I started in real estate about 20 years ago. At the time I looked around at where I lived and saw everything in place for a momumental change. My friends and colleagues would laugh when I would say we have some bumps ahead but long term this place will become the Newport Beach of SD. I dont think there is any doubt any more that is where we are headed.

When I look at MM I see everything in place for a monumental change there also. Not a beach community but Irvine/Costa Mesa is the future of MM IMO

[gzz]

The Newport Beach and Irvine of SD are La Jolla/Del Mar and Carmel Valley/UTC.

It’s very hard to gain the cluster of amenities the very rich demand, I don’t see how Encinitas and Carlsbad will get them. They have too much tract housing and too little commercial areas.

More likely IMO is that as Encinitas and Carlsbad move upscale, they become more like Dana Point and Solana Beach.

For Mira Mesa, its gentrification is generated by tech workers so I think the best comparisons would be formerly middle class areas of SV like Cupertino and Redwood City.

[sdrealtor]

Just back from weekend in Newport Beach. It’s a beach community like Encinitas and Carlsbad just wealthier. I itnever said would be as wealthy just that it would be our version of it which it is becoming. The NCC has more amenities including golf courses, restaurants, shopping and entertainment than any other part of SD. It has two of the Premier resorts in SD and many more very nice ones. Do you spend much time here? Do you spend much time in Newport Beach? I spend a lot of time there.

La Jolla is more comparable to Laguna than Newport Beach. Old money vs new money. Artsy vs Flashy. Tucked away with challenging access to transportation corridors.

Irvine is at least 15 minutes from the beach. Most of the housing is older. It’s in the middle of an employment center. It’s nothing like Carmel Valley.

[an]

I’d take either Irvine or Cupertino or even Sunnyvale as where MM is heading to.

[gzz]

Related anti-great room/living room screed:

https://archive.curbed.com/2018/7/11/17536876/great-room-house-size-design-square-footage

I disagree with it partly. I do think the giant great rooms aren’t used much and the space is better used for bigger bedrooms and kitchens, but medium size living rooms near the entrance are great. They provide a way to have one 24/7/365 clean room with good furniture for people with pets and children. And also a quiet room for reading and smartphoning.

By the same author:

https://mcmansionhell.com/post/635435396215521280/we-interrupt-this-broadcast-to-bring-you-an

[gzz]

Wow, did one of your listings end up in the McMansion Hell blog?

I don’t have strong views on styles, I just know what’s ugly and what’s nice, and have a soft spot for Carrara marble. Now this is classy, but became a tear down because it was too small:

https://homesoftherich.net/2016/09/the-marble-house-in-avalon-nj-2/

[sdrealtor]

Lol you have strong views on just about everything which incidentally you seem unwilling to soften on….. ever

[gzz]

Nah my views on everything discussed here are not strongly held, they may come off that way because they’re confidently expressed as a vocational habit.

[jmw]

Can you easily search ibuyer activity? Sales with no listing

[sdrealtor]

[quote=jmw]Can you easily search ibuyer activity? Sales with no listing[/quote]

What I can do is search a specific company in the tax records and tell you how many homes they own. Any you are interested in?

[jmw]

Redfin. Cuz they’re in the middle of a flip down the street

[sdrealtor]

Sorry for delay, I missed deadline for sending my 1/4ly dues and mls got cut off. Paid it and should have it back shortly. I’ll take care of it then

[sdrealtor]

[quote=jmw]Redfin. Cuz they’re in the middle of a flip down the street[/quote]

So I ran numbers for Redfin and they only have about 26 in SD County. The big players are Opendoor which has about 130 and Zillow which has 242. Generally speaking these are mostly in lower and middle class areas or attached/condos. its hard to know exactly what zillow pays but they seem to be losing money on most of what they buy and sell and are tring to figuree out the business model rather than turn a profit

[jmw]

Does Mira Mesa cease to be a first time homebuyer community at $1m?

[sdrealtor]

I dont think so. I think it becomes and is becoming first time home for a new class of homebuyer. I’ve had first time homebuyers put down $500k with HH incomes well over $300k. Things a changin

Also many first timers start in condos and town homes here. Always have

[jmw]

[img_assist|nid=27501|title=MM|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=78]
If you had told me 10 years ago one of the standard models in Mira Mesa would sell for $1m…

[Escoguy]

[quote=jmw][img_assist|nid=27501|title=MM|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=78]
If you had told me 10 years ago one of the standard models in Mira Mesa would sell for $1m…[/quote]

When I see this, I realize my projection of 1400 sf in 4S at 1.2M isn’t far off.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Escoguy][quote=jmw][img_assist|nid=27501|title=MM|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=78]
If you had told me 10 years ago one of the standard models in Mira Mesa would sell for $1m…[/quote]

When I see this, I realize my projection of 1400 sf in 4S at 1.2M isn’t far off.[/quote]

As you know a 1400 sf 4S house is a detached condo and really more townhouse than sfr. Pricing is knocking on the door of that level and there is nothing for sale

I never saw this coming but feel like we are heading toward Silicon Valley pricing down here unless something changes quickly. I hope Im wrong

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=Escoguy][quote=jmw][img_assist|nid=27501|title=MM|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=78]
If you had told me 10 years ago one of the standard models in Mira Mesa would sell for $1m…[/quote]

When I see this, I realize my projection of 1400 sf in 4S at 1.2M isn’t far off.[/quote]

As you know a 1400 sf 4S house is a detached condo and really more townhouse than sfr. Pricing is knocking on the door of that level and there is nothing for sale

I never saw this coming but feel like we are heading toward Silicon Valley pricing down here unless something changes quickly. I hope Im wrong[/quote]
I have my fingers and toes crossed that you’re right 😀

[jmw]

Same. Crazy to think some of the original owners in MM may not even be paying $1,000/yr in property tax. While those moving in are paying $1,000/mo. Talk about golden handcuffs!

[sdrealtor]

So those houses were still around 100k new and many years of 2% tax increases so about $2k is the least anyone is paying. Not quite 10X but 5X certainly in the realm. I’ve been in my home 22 years now. House next door just resold and they’ll be paying 3X. I am old enough to move my tax basis now but like it where I am so that’s my bigger golden handcuffs

[bewildering]

[quote=sdrealtor] I am old enough to move my tax basis now but like it where I am so that’s my bigger golden handcuffs[/quote]

What does remodeling a house do to the tax basis? When I move back to San Diego I would probably remodel my SFH. I am guessing that would change the tax basis to current property values?

[sdrealtor]

Doing an addition, adding a pool etc would trigger reassessment. Painting , new flooring, new cabinets, counters, appliances, lighting, plumbing fixtures and the like not

[bewildering]

[quote=sdrealtor]Doing an addition, adding a pool etc would trigger reassessment. Painting , new flooring, new cabinets, counters, appliances, lighting, plumbing fixtures and the like not[/quote]

Does the reassessment just look at vlue of addition? Or would it include land price?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=bewildering][quote=sdrealtor]Doing an addition, adding a pool etc would trigger reassessment. Painting , new flooring, new cabinets, counters, appliances, lighting, plumbing fixtures and the like not[/quote]

Does the reassessment just look at vlue of addition? Or would it include land price?[/quote]

Land would not get reassessed only the improvements built and the increase is typically well under what they cost.

[sdrealtor]

Dupe

[XBoxBoy]

I sure would have thought we’d see a pretty big slow down with interest rates going up like they have. Particularly in an area like Mira Mesa. But so far, not seeing the increase in inventory or the drop in demand. Shows you how little I know… or maybe just how crazy the situation is. Either way, I find the situation pretty spectacular. Maybe it’s still to come and deadzone will be right. But so far… not seeing it.

[Coronita]

Too rich for my blood… lol

Now, if a 1/1 in 92126 can sell for $500k+

that would be sweet…

[Coronita]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7215-Rock-Canyon-Dr-92126/home/4544095

$1.7 million

Beverly Mesa!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Coronita]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7215-Rock-Canyon-Dr-92126/home/4544095

$1.7 million

Beverly Mesa![/quote]

Great joke! April fools!!!! Well maybe not but picture #9 is awesome

[an]

[quote=Coronita]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7215-Rock-Canyon-Dr-92126/home/4544095

$1.7 million

Beverly Mesa![/quote]
So close

[an]

Latest phase for Lennar’s Alta development @ 3Roots has the largest model priced at $1.79m. That’s before upgrade and landscaping. I’m assuming that once you priced those 2 things in, you’re looking at close to $2m home.

[sdrealtor]

You might get in under but some will defintely go well over $2M when all is said and done. They are building a modern day country club community in the middle of the SD tech center. Brilliant!

[sdrealtor]

Complete fixer of a house listed in MM a few days ago. Offer deadline is today. Offers need to be all cash. They are over 20 offers already

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]Complete fixer of a house listed in MM a few days ago. Offer deadline is today. Offers need to be all cash. They are over 20 offers already[/quote]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7852-Tampico-Ct-92126/home/4570382

This one. 20 offers at least over $700k cash.

Seems like a lot of people have a lot of cash.

[an]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10484-Flanders-Pl-92126/home/6398700

Closed at $1.51m, $310k above asking.

[limkotir]

[quote=an]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10484-Flanders-Pl-92126/home/6398700

Closed at $1.51m, $310k above asking.[/quote]

Oh wow. Looking at the pictures, the home is remodeled tastefully, located in a cal-de-sac, and 1-min walk next to the new elementary school and park (both important to starting families).

I guess for first time buyers, start look at condos or townhouses to get exposed to the local market — even homes in undesirable locations are being snapped up like hotcakes in this market, was hoping folks would leave those for first SFH buyers.

Which brings me to ask another question to those who are much experienced with the SD market. All things being equal, how much less should a Single Family House (SFH) be, each valued independently, versus a SFH which does not carry those unchangeable characteristics:

1) Next or close to a freeway (noise issue)
2) Located on a double yellow line neighborhood (traffic issue)
3) Zero lot line, red colored curb, in front of the house (no parking in front of the house)
4) No driveway (gotta use your garage for parking your car, lose storage use for garage)

I understand each person would value the above characteristic very differently based on their needs, just looking for some directional / general guidance.

[Coronita]

[quote=limkotir][quote=an]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10484-Flanders-Pl-92126/home/6398700

Closed at $1.51m, $310k above asking.[/quote]

Oh wow. Looking at the pictures, the home is remodeled tastefully, located in a cal-de-sac, and 1-min walk next to the new elementary school and park (both important to starting families).

I guess for first time buyers, start look at condos or townhouses to get exposed to the local market — even homes in undesirable locations are being snapped up like hotcakes in this market, was hoping folks would leave those for first SFH buyers.

Which brings me to ask another question to those who are much experienced with the SD market. All things being equal, how much less should a Single Family House (SFH) be, each valued independently, versus a SFH which does not carry those unchangeable characteristics:

1) Next or close to a freeway (noise issue)
2) Located on a double yellow line neighborhood (traffic issue)
3) Zero lot line, red colored curb, in front of the house (no parking in front of the house)
4) No driveway (gotta use your garage for parking your car, lose storage use for garage)

I understand each person would value the above characteristic very differently based on their needs, just looking for some directional / general guidance.[/quote]

2 and 3 are not a big deal.

1, if you live in 92130 or Mira Mesa, you’re bigger issue is being next to Miramar. Hasn’t stopped people from buying homes in 92130 or 92126.

4, not sure that would be a big deal. Price to pay for home ownership these days.

[sdrealtor]

I used to say 2/3 of what you are buying is what you are standing on not standing in. Now I’d say 70-80% is the land value depending upon the property

As for the specific question you asked there is a lot of nuance involved and no simple answers. Having done this a couple decades I can look at two houses and comps and put a number on what I think any given house is worth above or below average market value at the time but that comes with experience. Generally I advocate buying the best lot/location you can get because that can’t be changed and it’s where most of the value is. Plus you’ll stay longer and enjoy more a property on a good lot in a good location

I think all four matter and if you are able get the best you can. Buying here is all about compromises and even people spending millions rarely get everything they want. Figure out what is most important and try to focus on that. With inventory as tight as it is that’s a tall order right now

[oceanbreeze]

[quote=an]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10484-Flanders-Pl-92126/home/6398700

Closed at $1.51m, $310k above asking.[/quote]

20 days closing. It looks like a cash buyer also.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=oceanbreeze][quote=an]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10484-Flanders-Pl-92126/home/6398700

Closed at $1.51m, $310k above asking.[/quote]

20 days closing. It looks like a cash buyer also.[/quote]

Not necessarily. I’ll have to check. Lenders have gotten very good at closing loans much faster

[an]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10858-Canyon-Hill-Ln-92126/home/4590406

Closed at $1.55m, $250k above asking.

[Coronita]

[quote=an]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10858-Canyon-Hill-Ln-92126/home/4590406

Closed at $1.55m, $250k above asking.[/quote]

I guess people really underestimated the number of people that emerged from pandemic significantly financially stronger than than they went into it.

Must not have been job growth and meaningingful financial gain in those industries….

I wonder how many folks cashed in their RSU and ESPP stock to buy a house. I would have as a hedge to tradeoff being too concentrated in stock market and having something to live in.

[limkotir]

On the positive side, there is a flood of new listings in several of the “starter” home communities this week — saw couple listings in person myself in MM, still good amount of foot traffic, but I suspect a few of the listings on the lower end of price spectrum to go into pending status come this Tuesday / Wednesday.

Of course, with 30Y fixed mortgage above 5%, sales volume could start to taper off, maybe.

[sdrealtor]

I wouldn’t expect volume to go down just the rate of appreciation. There are plenty of buyers and 5,7,10/1 arm rates are below 4% and will increasingly come into fashion

[limkotir]

[quote=sdrealtor]You might get in under but some will defintely go well over $2M when all is said and done. They are building a modern day country club community in the middle of the SD tech center. Brilliant![/quote]

https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/san-diego/san-diego/3-roots/alta

Alta’s exterior modern style, may attract those younger and tech driven buyers.

Judging by the pictures on the developers sites, out of the 10 communities in 3Roots (4 townhouses, 1 bungalow, 1 condo, 1 villa, 3 single family homes), it appears only 3 communities have a driveaway, and probably nobody has curb front parking (just a guess).

I read many buyers and prospective buyers are already complaining about the parking situation in 3Roots, are looking for refuge across Camino Santa Fe where Quidel is located, which that company may take heartburns against during M-F wordays.

[Coronita]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7260-Calle-Cristobal-92126/unit-42/home/4559129

1114sqft condo in 92126….
$724k.

Welcome to the 92126,
…..the new Beverly Mesa….

It’s only 5 minutes to new
…..La Jolla Atherton..

It’s also pretty close to 92130, the new..
….Carmel Cupertino….

Lol. I really hope doomsayers are right and that we see a massive price correction. I mean, as it stands, I am priced out from buying more here unless I do something drastic like raise rents closer to market price or work for a startup that hits the IPO jackpot

Bay Area housing all over again…boy do I not miss those days….

If you think it’s bad here…..
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/945-Foxglove-Dr-94086/home/671314

4/2 1700 sqft in roughly a place like Beverly Mesa.up there. $2.9m

[limkotir]

Not familiar with bay area neighborhoods or market dynamics, but fully recognize Sunnyvale is a city that houses many tech companies.

Seems like the K-12 public schools this house is zoned to is ok, whereas MM has high achieving schools, but definitely not close to the nearby tech money influence.

Two questions: are public schools in the bay area in MM-like / -esque neighborhoods are typically like this per GreatSchools, mostly with 6s to 8s ratings, and 2) is it true many upper middle class families, by bay area standards, just end up going the private school route?

[an]

What’s interesting is, according to Redfin, the rent estimate for that Sunnyvale home is only ~$6k. Houses in Mira Mesa with similar rent estimate from Redfin (trying to keep variables as close to the same as possible) is going for ~$1.3-1.4m.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=an]What’s interesting is, according to Redfin, the rent estimate for that Sunnyvale home is only ~$6k. Houses in Mira Mesa with similar rent estimate from Redfin (trying to keep variables as close to the same as possible) is going for ~$1.3-1.4m.[/quote]

I don’t know about Redfin rent estimates but my neighborhood has rents around $6k now and prices are $2m+ ish

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=an]What’s interesting is, according to Redfin, the rent estimate for that Sunnyvale home is only ~$6k. Houses in Mira Mesa with similar rent estimate from Redfin (trying to keep variables as close to the same as possible) is going for ~$1.3-1.4m.[/quote]

I don’t know about Redfin rent estimates but my neighborhood has rents around $6k now and prices are $2m+ ish[/quote]

That estimate in redfin for 94086 is pretty close to reality. Speaking from experience. 4/2 1700sqft in Sunnyvale c rented for $5000/month
Roughly same time 5/3 2600 sqft in 92130 rented for $5000/month around the same time. 94086 tenant isn’t planning to buy anytime soon because despite floating in Uber and Facebook stock grants, rent is still cheaper than buy by a lot and money saved, tenant sends kid to private school and very close to new tech campuses. But there it’s pretty crazy, there use to be a large plot of dumpyard land next to the rail lines. Last time i was there, that scrapyard right along train tracks is now high density housing.

Both roughly $6k/month now.

That’s why I said what I said. All else being equal, tenant gets more for their money here in SD, as long as they can work remotely most of the time. I don’t need everyone to work remotely. I just need to find one that does, lol…92130 just renewed his lease for 2nd year and asked for an additional 2-3 years extension….I said we would talk about it when time is up.

I’m not sure if $6k/month in MM is doable yet. I’m not saying it isn’t, I just don’t know. Could be with the right house.

[an]

[quote=Coronita]I’m not sure if $6k/month in MM is doable yet. I’m not saying it isn’t, I just don’t know. Could be with the right house.[/quote]
$6k-6.5k is possible for the newer houses at the corner of Camino Santa Fe and Calle Cristobal as well as the 2500ish sq-ft houses in 3Roots and some of the view lots West of MM.

[Coronita]

[quote=an][quote=Coronita]I’m not sure if $6k/month in MM is doable yet. I’m not saying it isn’t, I just don’t know. Could be with the right house.[/quote]
$6k-6.5k is possible for the newer houses at the corner of Camino Santa Fe and Calle Cristobal as well as the 2500ish sq-ft houses in 3Roots and some of the view lots West of MM.[/quote]

I don’t know this market well, so probably. Rent has dramatically increased here in SD the last year.

[sdrealtor]

Yeah Zillow has the rent estimate on my house at 7500 which just seems too high but what do I know? I haven’t seen a house go up for rent around here in a while

And even if it was that high I don’t think I could charge someone that in good conscience on my house

[Coronita]

[quote=limkotir]Not familiar with bay area neighborhoods or market dynamics, but fully recognize Sunnyvale is a city that houses many tech companies.

Seems like the K-12 public schools this house is zoned to is ok, whereas MM has high achieving schools, but definitely not close to the nearby tech money influence.

Two questions: are public schools in the bay area in MM-like / -esque neighborhoods are typically like this per GreatSchools, mostly with 6s to 8s ratings, and 2) is it true many upper middle class families, by bay area standards, just end up going the private school route?[/quote]

Sunnyvale and south is what would be considered on par with Mira Mesa in terms of schools for a family. The location of the large apple campus only came recently with the past few years. Sunnyvale use to be a solid middle class neighborhood back in early 2000s obtainable for middle class, even as far as 2008.

Cupertino has always been the sought after school district.

I see many parallels when between Sunnyvale (ditto for mountain view) and Mira Mesa,.when things changed for the better. Close proximity to job center. No different than Mira Mesa being close to Sorrento Valley and now the life sciences growth area near 3 Roots…. 3 Roots will do well. Mira Mesa will do well as the more blue collar older owners move out by selling and retiring and refreshed with new owners. If SFH in MM are now over $1m, it’s a entirely new demographics moving in now aint going back. In practice, when public schools in the area will continue to get better as the demographics changes.

Short of jumping on an IPO bandwagon or working for a company with decent RSUs or being in a double income earning family….that’s what’s going to be the new norm for new people, unfortunately.

[jmw]

with prices dropping and construction costs increasing, what do you think this double lot is worth?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8896-Aquarius-Dr-92126/home/4799817

They split the lot but they’re both in the same listing. $1.25m for front lot with house, $395k for back lot

[sdrealtor]

Smart investors land bank things like that. You could split it under sb9 and then build two very nice houses each with an adu and jadu. That’s 6 units. It’s worth what the right person will pay for it

[sdrealtor]

Im not sure what happened but we seem to have lost some of the past data and posts. Anyway time to move on! Lets see if the same things is happening here as in NCC

Slight change of format for the catch up. First new listings by week as compared to last year.

New Listings Week ended:

Jan 10th 1 (7)
Jan 17th 3 (3)
Jan 24th 2 (3)
Jan 31st 5 (3)

4 week total 11 (16)

Thats also a very big drop over what was anemic data last year. Looks like about 1/3rd less just like the NCC. Last year prices exploded with few listings/ huge demand and this year new supply is far less. If there was any doubt there would be a seller’s strike that has been answered here also.

Unless demand falls off a cliff forget about falling prices this Spring!

Now lets look at the demand side:

New Pendings Week ended:

Jan 10th 2 (4)
Jan 17th 5 (2)
Jan 24th 5 (4)
Jan 31st 2 (2)

4 week total 14 (12)

Thats actually more than last year! There is definitely more to buy this year than last year. Back then there was literally under 5 homes each week on the market so that explains some of it. The numbers are much smaller and more prone to being skewed. So its hard to have as much confidence in what im seeing here but it does align with what is going on in NCC. So Im gonna go with the same here

Demand has NOT fallen off a cliff. Not only dont I expect to see prices keep falling I think we are gonna see them take back some of those second half losses! Buyers are back! This is a bit of surprise. And maybe more than a bit

[sdrealtor]

One additional piece of data to complete the picture which is active inventory by week compared to last year. I only have some of 2 years back here unlike NCC

Jan 10th 14 (4)
Jan 17th 11 (2) (7)
Jan 24th 7 (2) (10)
Jan 31st 11 (4) (8)

This time last year inventory was extraordinarily low but it started trending higher in February. We dont have nearly as low levels here as last year either but they are similar to two years ago also. I dont expect a price explosion but as seen above demand is starting to exceed supply and inventory is trending slightly down.

Net – net is inventory is still very constrained compared with pre-pandemic. While we are in a very balanced market the pricing pressure should be ever so slightly to the upside. I think things will get tougher come Summer and that Fall will be the buying window for those so inclined to catch most of whatever decline we will see in this compressed cycle

• This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by sdrealtor.

[sdrealtor]

Back to the old format but please make sure to read the catch up posts if you have not already

New listings 3 (6) –

New Pendings of 7 (5) –

Thats -4

Closed sales at 5 (5)

Total houses for sale 10 (7) with median of $995k ($900k). There were 13 on the market 2 years ago

New listings down from last week and pendings up. Inventory edging towards where we were last year. These are not conditions conducive to a crash or even declining values.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 3 (6) –

New Pendings of 4 (9) –

Thats -1

Closed sales at 4 (4)

Total houses for sale 11 (7) with median of $1M ($940k). There were 10 on the market 2 years ago with a 770K median.

We’ve gotten a max of 5 new listings in a week this year but 3 or less the other weeks. One of the new listings was bought last Summer so plans changed and not someone settled in with ultra low rate.

Inventory is where it was 2 years ago but prices are holding much higher than back then.

The great dig in and stay put continues

[Bewildered]

Any idea how the homes in 3 roots are selling? There are 1800 homes in the community.

Were many deposits put down when there were lower rates? It will be interesting to see how prices are affected.

[an]

The biggest Alta development is all sold out. While Brio, there’s currently one listed on the MLS @ $1.66m for a plan 1.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (4) –

New Pendings of 5 (10) –

Thats -1

Closed sales at 2 (3)

Total houses for sale 12 (4) with median of $1M ($945k). There were 5 on the market 2 years ago with a 750K median.

MM seems to be settling in with listing counts slightly lower but similar to last and prior years

The homes under $1M are selling while those over are sitting unless special. I could see the market slog along like this for next few months. Not expecting a flood but pricing seems to be holding firm in the sub $1M market. Eventually the higher priced homes should capitulate in Summer/Fall possibly bringing the market down a touch then. But overall this is a stable market and should be for a while to come. People are mostly content to stay put

[Jmw2]

Will 3roots prices every come back to earth?! It’s messing with the data

[an]

This is earth and that is the data. People pay more for new homes in a new community. Those houses are a lot bigger than typical MM houses.

[sdrealtor]

This is also a premium on a new home. People will always pay more to be the first person to use the….

[sdrealtor]

Heading into the weekend in peak season here with one 3BR house on the market below $1M. If there wasnt rain expected there would be a traffic jam there

[an]

Can’t wait to have spring in the rear-view mirror. It’ll be interesting to see how this spring will play out.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 5 (4) –

New Pendings of 3 (5) –

Thats +2

Closed sales at 2 (5)

Total houses for sale 13 (7) with median of $1.075M ($1.075M). There were 7 on the market 2 years ago with a 770K median.

MM starting to get a few more but generally speaking new listings are slightly below last year. Pricing feels about the same as last year this time but should go negative soon as we compare to those peak Spring 22 months soon

• This reply was modified 3 weeks ago by sdrealtor.

[sdrealtor]

Update time w/ last year data in parentheses

New listings 3 (6) –

New Pendings of 5 (7) –

Thats -2

Closed sales at 7 (7)

Total houses for sale 11 (4) with median of $1.05M ($978k). There were 67 on the market 2 years ago with a 762K median. 8 of 11 on the market priced between 900k and 1.1M but most above 1M. Could be a slow pending week ahead as not much of interst below $1M

Much of the same. New inventory comes from those leaving or dying. Market under $1M is stronger but a nice property above will sell also

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (8) – all previously owned for decades. Its becoming a probate/estate sale market

New Pendings of 3 (6) –

Thats +1

Closed sales at 7 (10)

Total houses for sale 12 (8) with median of $1.05M ($972k). There were 6 on the market 2 years ago with a 727K median. As expected slow week of pendings with little under $1M and expect same next week.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 2 (4) – no one leaving unless in a pine box

New Pendings of 7 (9) – under $1M and it is gonna sell

Thats -5

Closed sales at 2 (5)

Total houses for sale 7 (3) with median of $1.11M ($1.15M). There were 7 on the market 2 years ago with a 825K median.

Only one house below $1M now and it has tenants that leave at end of month so that will change things for them. Will be interesting to see what sells this week as its all above $1M

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks for continuing to provide these area-level snapshots. Interesting stuff… looks like sellers are continuing to win the “standoff”!

[sdrealtor]

Yup that is what is happening. There are a lot fewer buyers but even fewer sellers. If we suddenly got an onslaught of listings the market would struggle a lot, but that isn’t happening. I just checked and one new listing up in NCC today. Another former resident’s estate is selling. That’s pretty much the market

[an]

I’ve been following MM area for the last 2 decades and for the longest time, MM’s median has been around the same as San Diego City’s median. However, over the last few years (maybe when 3Roots start building and COVID), the MM median has been pulling away from the City wide median. Also, compare to Clairemont, in the 2000s and 2010s, Clairemont (excluding BayPark/BayHo) median and similar house for house was about 10-20% higher than MM. However, now, they’re closer to parity with Clairemont still having the edge, but not 10-20% edge like it was.

[sdrealtor]

Someone finally recognized MM was La Jolla adjacent

[Author]

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