Mira Mesa Monitor

[sdrealtor]

Im going to start tracking the SFR market here as it seems more of a bellweather and is very interesting. Early 2020 the starter 3BR homes were low to mid 600’s but by late Summer market was low to mid 700’s with every decent home hotly contested. The majority of the homes were built around the same time, around the same size by Pardee. Its as homogenous a market I can think of for SFR’s with differences mostly attributable to which of the 4 quadrants it falls in and even more so lot size.

Ive got a bunch of friends and past clients there so lets start following it and see where it goes in the land of too many walls and lizards

[sdrealtor]

So we are starting out in a red hot market with low inventory, multiple offers and most homes sell week one.

New listings 6

New Pendings 11

Thats -5 a sign that this is a very strong market with as low inventory is here

Closed sales at 4

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 7 with median price of $780K. That feels slightly above the median sales price which Id guess would be more around 725K ish. It also speaks to the homogenuity of MM. There really isnt not much in the way of a high end here. Its pretty much all the same in a very narrow range.

[Coronita]

damn those lizards in far flung areas with no walls.

[gzz]

Never gets old when Mira Mesa is the topic:

https://sdheadliner.com/neighborhoods/ocean-levels-rise-drastically-overnight-mira-mesa-now-beachfront-property/

https://sdheadliner.com/neighborhoods/city-improvements/new-prison-conveniently-built-next-to-mira-mesa-high-school/

https://sdheadliner.com/neighborhoods/people-from-sorrento-mesa-hate-being-affiliated-with-mira-mesa/

[an]

Those damn walls and lizards.

Would be interesting to see how http://www.live3roots.com/ will affect houses in Southwest MM. There will be a trail head at the end of Parkdale Ave leading down to the trail system.

Especially when https://calwestliving.com/residences/brio CalWest house 2500-2700sq-ft will be listing in the low $1M.

Lennar will have model as big as 3600 sq-ft. https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/san-diego/san-diego/3-roots/alta/residence-3

[sdrealtor]

Yup kinda bullish on MM. High prices/nicer homes bring more educated professionals to the area who fix up homes raising comps. They also bring their kids to schools that suddenly start rapidly ascending the rankings creating a vicious cycle not unlike what San Elijo did for SM. I think its just gonna take a bit longer as not much new construction and so many folks dug in. Also TBD is what impact ADU’s will have as there could be a bunch of homes converted to triplexes so good for investors but if too many negative for owner occ’s. I think this will be a good one to follow

[gzz]

3roots looks stunning and well designed.

The prices don’t seem bad either, but it is unclear just how crowded the houses are from a quick look.

I like that they are doing 3 floor homes in a suburban area.

[sdrealtor]

FWIW dont love 3 floor homes especially townhomes. They always seem to lag the greater market. But thats what they build these days so you give up some upside for a very nice newer home to live in. Fair compromise for young families

[an]

They will be crowded. The lots are planned to be smaller than typical Mira Mesa lot. So, the houses are bigger but the yard will be smaller.

[gzz]

AN i feel more comfortable in an old smaller house on big lot as in MM than the newer style I associate with Carmel Valley (I’ve seen similar in Dana Point).

But as long as you’re gonna have big homes on small lots, 3roots seems to have a great design.

When I was in DC i rented in the Foxhall part of Georgetown on a street of 4000+SF tudor townhouses with 3 floors + basement and typically 5-7 beds 4-5 baths, lavish street landscaping, and 15×30 back yards. I liked this better, as long as you’re going to put houses so close together, might as well connect them to lower building costs and increase SF. This wouldn’t be for everybody here, but it is a shame our zoning rules don’t seem to allow or promote this at all. Both DC and SF have newer construction in this basic size and style.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. The uptick in listings should have started and along with the next two will give us a good glimpse as to how the Spring season will go. Lets see what we got.

New listings 7 – hoped for more but comparatively not as low as on the coast.

New Pendings of 5 – buyers still out there!

Thats +2

Closed sales at 9

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 10 with median price of $750K. That feels just over median sales price. Im thinking once old timers see current price levels we should see more inventory. That would keep this market more balanced than the coast but no guarantees. This is a very strong/stable market. Looking forward to seeing where it goes.

[an]

The number is much worst if you add 2 car garage and a minimum lot of 4500 sq-ft. I’m only seeing 4 properties.

[gzz]

Mira Mesa in Nov 2011, just as prices started to go vertical: 129 houses and 87 condos, versus 7 and 9 right now.

In the Nov 2011 inventory, there were a dozen condos under 100k, and zero houses listed above 500k. The most expensive house was 7990 Hollow Mesa Ct, a 5 bedroom that eventually sold for $495k.

Showing how low end condos were the best performers, the cheapest late 2011 condo in Mira Mesa was 9534 Carroll Canyon Rd APT 128, listed at 86k, now with a Zestimate of $327k, making it nearly a 4-bagger. The Hollow Mesa Ct. 5-bedroom house hasn’t even doubled.

[sdrealtor]

Low end condos were definitely the best performers appreciation wise but its not that simple. I’ll explain.

Bought one in NP in late 2010 for $85K. Back then the low end condo complexes were mostly under distress and things had to be bought all cash. Put a tenant in at slightly below market and never raised rent. She stayed until late 2015. When she left, I did a $30K remodel and sold it for $250K in early 2016. Right now its worth around 330K.

Early 2013, helped client buy a short sale in MM for $380K that they were renting. They put zero down with local credit union. Their place is now worth mid 700’s.

My return on investment was well over 100%. Their return was infinite as they could finance the whole thing, had no moving costs and payment was similar to rent.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Its not getting beter.

New listings 6 – no relief here unlike the coast which is at least seeing some additional inventory hit the market.

New Pendings of 11 – gonna be tough to match this next week unless we get inventoyr

Thats -5

Closed sales at 4

Price reductions at 0. Why bother

Current inventory at 8 with median price of $867K. That was a big jump. Its basically the end of below 700K houses outside of unusual situations. I wonder if we will see 800’s this year for the typcal 3/2 MM house. would not surprise me.

Cmon old timers! Its time to move on! Max profitz available!

This doesnt seem to be going anywhere but up

[Author]

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