Hello, friends. A few things of interest this month.
Nominal prices and monthly payments have notched new highs, and even adjusting for inflation they are awfully close to the 2022 high points:
And per the title, while inventory and sales are both far lower than the pre-COVID 5 year average (dotted line), the ratio between the two is not all that far from normal.
This ratio — months of inventory — has been a pretty good indicator of near-term price pressure:
It’s still at levels that have historically been positive for prices (except in 2022), but the move towards normal may presage some breathing room for buyers.
More graphs below…
A years of persistent soaring inflation it appears the battle has been won! We now have deflation using my surrogate monetary benchmark! For several years I have seen my $7 El Pueblo Super Breakfast burrito rise in price to $13 but today I saw relief has arrived! While it is still $13 it now comes with a 12 oz glass of OJ that has gotta be worth $3. You heard it here first. Deflation has arrived
$3 for an oj? That’s a steal! No way that’s real! Next you’ll tell me that the mac donals came out with a new “value” meal. lol yeah right!
You know, they have an index to measure this, with several things in it besides breakfast burritos. 🙂
I understand but that basket of goods can change over time. My El Pueblo breakfast burrito is exactly the same today as it was 10 years ago. Nothing about it has changed. It is a perfectly homogenous good.