Goodbye to San Diego

[zk]

Econprof wrote:
“Zero Hedge clearly leans right, but its followers understand that and can presumably separate the wheat from the chaff.”

This is one of the most ridiculous things I’ve ever read on the internet. The vast majority of these people believe trump won in 2020 (among many other beliefs that they hold precisely because they can’t separate right-wing “news” wheat from chaff).

[sdrealtor]

[bribrah]

San Diego is going to become a community of old retirees and college kids, with no working professionals inbetween

 

[sdrealtor]

Thats one opinion I certainly do not share. I expect prices to largely moderate as incomes catch up over the next decade or so. Those currently locked out of the market are rightfully pessimistic and it sucks being born at the wrong time but this area will do just fine and eventually normalize back to more reasonable valuations.

[EconProf]

Quote from FlashReport.org:

SDUT:

“Tens of thousands of residents moved out of San Diego County last year–almost double the number a year ago.”

Gosh, I wonder why.

[an]

According to the USD economist quoted in the article:
“The people who are leaving are likely the lower-income to middle-income categories,” said Alan Gin, an economist at the University of San Diego. “They want to leave because they can’t afford housing.”

Since housing price in San Diego has been increasing between 2015 and 2024, while there’s a net out migration between that same period tells me that more people are moving out than moving in, but the people moving in makes more money and can afford buying at the current price.

[an]

Looking at this migration chart, if it affects housing price, shouldn’t it have affected it a while ago?  It has been almost a decade since we first saw an out migration.

[Rich Toscano]

“Tens of thousands of residents moved out of San Diego County last year–almost double the number a year ago.”

Gosh, I wonder why.

To escape this thread?

[sdrealtor]

People leave when it gets more expensive whether it be to cash out or that they cant afford it. The winners stay and the losers head to places like St George where the market is deteriorating by the day. Then prices equalize at some point and they come pouring back in. This is nothing new in SD. This place has so much inherently going for it that it will always be an aspirational place to live. If prices became more affordable the population would go crazy and in due time it will again. Lather rinse repeat

Ill work on a SG data update when I get the chance

[sdrealtor]

SG market is rated 18 for Not very competitive

https://www.redfin.com/city/16751/UT/St-George/housing-market

SD market is rated 82 for Hot very competitive

https://www.redfin.com/city/16904/CA/San-Diego/housing-market

[sdrealtor]

Sales volume is up big time in San Diego. In St George it is Falling! Cracks in the foundation

[sdrealtor]

“Tens of thousands of residents moved out of San Diego County last year–almost double the number a year ago.”

Gosh, I wonder why.
To escape this thread?

 

LOL this is the gift that keeps giving

[EconProf]

sdr & others:  I’ve tried to let this thread die a natural death but you keep reviving it.  It appears I must be a threat to your livelihood.

Contrary to your statements, I did not leave SD unappreciative of the amenities and livelihood it gave me in abundance.  The recent (and increasing) exodus to other states from CA is prompted by differences in cost of living, government policies (esp. taxes and utility costs), and lifestyle choices.

Incidentally, while you often cite RE differences between my St. George/Washington City area vs. San Diego, I’d remind you that CA refugees are fleeing to all neighboring states, plus Florida.  Let’s think beyond St. George vs. San Diego.

Regarding your “proof” that St. George is not doing well RE-wise, your data is not accurate.  A major local realtor said our average price is up 8% over the past year and there are 13% more “pending” sales.  My four rental properties here never have turnover, and I raise the rent annually (as promised when they begin).

Hollywood has discovered us, as Kevin Kostner is in love with the area, and will be building a 120,000 S/F “Territory Studio” near our airport, since he has made & starred in movies here of late.

Speaking of the airport, the work-from-home trend has many people keeping their job in San Diego and L.A. and flying to their big-city job a few times a month.  They are here for the lifestyle and cost of living.

Finally, you seem to take pride in the high and rising cost of housing in San Diego, and especially your rarefied neighborhood by UCSD and the ocean.  Good for you and the rich people around you, but I bet the average Piggington reader does not take comfort from this.

Our lower cost of housing is largely due to abundant land, cheaper construction costs, decent government, etc.  Your own figures show that a $950,000 ticky-tack 50-year old Mira Mesa house will get you a new 3000 SF mansion with forever views in St. George suggests that current trends will continue.

Demographics is….

 

[an]

I hope you’re right about this trend will continue.  I can really use another 100% increase in 5 years.

[sdrealtor]

Do I need to remind you that you were the one to resurrect this thread this week?

Are we a threat to your livelihood because you sure aren’t of mine.

First some truth from you. You left for lifestyle (your kids) and lower cost of living. There is nothing to be ashamed of for doing that but just the same no reason to throw the place that gave you the abundance under the bus.

Next some selective data from you. My data is very accurate and up to date!

Yes prices are up y-o-y but that’s because you are comparing to the late 2022 flash crash prices.

Lets look at current trends. In Nov 2023 the median there was $580K and in February it was only $485! You are in the middle of a stunning reversal of fortune!! April data may well show you down y-o-y once its available

More importantly sales volume is dropping while inventory is rapidly growing. That is what happens as market downturn begins and yours is showing all the signs of that.

Hat tip for the anecdotal “data point” from a random realtor!

Its interesting that you cite rising cost of living there aka increasing rents as a good thing in SG and a sign of market strength. Yet here it is a problem? Rental properties here rarely have vacancies and rents are here also

I dont know who Kevin Kostner is but hope its a good thing. However if its Kevin Costner you were refencing say hello for me. My ex girlfriend dated him when he was between marriages for a bit. She broke up with him because all he did was sit around smoking dope all day and never wanted to do anything fun. I guess he’ll like it out there staring stoned at the landscape.

As for property values. Of course homes are cheaper there! The land is virtually worthless while here it is extraordinarily valuable. I’m sure you know this but land is what appreciates in real estate. A house depreciates over time so that is yet another thing that will hurt SG going forward as they will be swimming upstream forever on that.

I take pride in a great world class city with a world class university that is a world leader in the industries of the future as opposed to place populated with slaughterhouses and construction workers that will be out of work in the first downturn.

Nothing about the data suggests that current trends in SG will continue. nothing.

[Author]

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