North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

Time to move this onto the forums for some added visibility and discussions. Ive been tracking this data since the beginning of April when the market was just coming out of a month where the market was frozen in place withe the shelter in place order. Since then the market has come roaring back here.

A few parameters. This data is for detached homes only in Encinitas (92024) and the two S Carlsbad zips (92009 and 92011). I run the data mid afternoon on tuesdays to allow for a day or two of negotiations after the weekend. New listings mostly come on the market between Wed Night and Saturday Morning. New pendings mostly reach agreement between Sunday night and Tuesday Afternoon. I also exclude new homes as its generally a different market.

Im not gonna rehash all the old data but may refer to trends. Anyone wanting to see data can ask or refer back to home page threads.

[sdrealtor]

Late Summer and the market should be snoozing.

New listings 31 same as last week.

Very much in line with what we have been seeing since mid-June.

New Pendings down to 31 way down from 55 last week

Thats the lowest count since Mid/late May. Inventory is way down and choices are very limited. The end of Summer seasonality should be showing up also. Will be of note to follow where it goes from here

Net-net inventory may have bottomed and it should start climbing a tad after ten consecutive weeks of falling inventory around my 3 zips.

Closed sales at 37 the high point since early April and reflects all the frenzy of last few months.

Price reductions at 15 which is pretty much where its been or lower. Sellers know the market is hot.

Total houses for sale 121

[sdrealtor]

Back to school time! Market should be paused up here. It isnt!

New listings 32 same as last week.

Very much in line with what we have been seeing since mid-June. They keep coming at a slow steady pace not meeting demand.

New Pendings up to 44 back up from a lull last week. Did not expect that! Thats 12 more than the new listings. Inventory has now been declining for 3 solid months.

Closed sales at 37 again the high point since early April and reflects all the frenzy of last few months.

Only 10 price reductions.

Total houses for sale back down to 112.

Market still cruising

[evolusd]

[quote=sdrealtor]Back to school time! Market should be paused up here. It isnt!

New listings 32 same as last week.

Very much in line with what we have been seeing since mid-June. They keep coming at a slow steady pace not meeting demand.

New Pendings up to 44 back up from a lull last week. Did not expect that! Thats 12 more than the new listings. Inventory has now been declining for 3 solid months.

Closed sales at 37 again the high point since early April and reflects all the frenzy of last few months.

Only 10 price reductions.

Total houses for sale back down to 112.

Market still cruising[/quote]

Thanks for the update!

[Anonymous]

How are things looking this week?

[sdrealtor]

I run my data late afternoon on Tuesdays. Will know in a bit but don’t always get it up same day

[sdrealtor]

Kids are back in school! I’ve got 4 high school seniors out back each day attending virtual classes in a large pop up tent. Gonna be an interesting few months until schools hopefully re-open for physical attendance.

New listings 19 is the lowest since early April when it was 18.

As one might expect with back to school and hopefully they bounce back up the next few weeks.

New Pendings up to 41 so the buyers didnt take a break! That ripped a big chunk out of active inventory here. Did not expect that! Thats minus 22 compared to new listings. Inventory keeps declining. It is particularly low in the two South Carlsbad zips. Maybe the lowest Ive seen in 20 years.

Closed sales at 36 reflecting all the activity through Summer.

Slight uptick with 16 price reductions. If your house isnt selling with inventory this low its time to take a hard look at price.

Total houses for sale down to 103. There are as many in Encinitas as the 2 S carlsbad zips. Ive never tracked that but experience tells me thats astounding and reflects the fact that Encinitas is becoming increasingly high end.

We have about 1/2 month inventory around here and most is very high priced

Market still cruising but with so little on the market I think these pendings gotta start dropping in a big way soon.

[Anonymous]

Appreciate the update!

[evolusd]

That new one on Durango Cir in 92011 seems like a deal for someone that only needs a 3/2 and has attached rental. Bet it gets bid up.

[sdrealtor]

Agree. I think its mispriced and even though it will get bid up it wont reach the level it could have sold for. But it will sell quickly, thats for certain!

[evolusd]

[quote=sdrealtor]Agree. I think its mispriced and even though it will get bid up it wont reach the level it could have sold for. But it will sell quickly, thats for certain![/quote]

Pending already!

[sdrealtor]

Of course. I thought it was listed at least 10% too low, maybe 20%. ADU’s are so new and there is no data on the market to value them. IMO Id want to shoot high and test the market. They started low and let the market dictate. Not saying thats the wrong approach just that Id come at it differently. Over time it will get figured out one way or the other.

[Anonymous]

It seems as though ADUs are helping properties West of I-5 in Cardiff and Encinitas sell faster and at higher prices.

[sdrealtor]

I dont know about that as I havent seen any good examples. Can you provide examples? Also everything is selling fast and for high prices so I would not necessarily attribute it to that. This is how I would look at it.

A 1BR condo in this area (not west of 5) starts around $350K and comes with high HOA fees plus RE taxes. Rents for a 1BR start around $1700. It costs at least $150K and likely more to build a decent one. Purely as an investment property I cant see how one wouldnt add at least $150-$200K or more to the value of a property until proven otherwise. While it is till a hypothesis I think its a very strong one. Id certainly want to test that valuation if I was a seller in this market

FWIW I have a client that built a beautiful 2/2 ADU west of the 5. Because it got classified as an ADU he cant do rentals less than 30 days. He does monthly rental fully furnished. His annual rental income would drop your jaw on the ground.

[gzz]

“Because it got classified as an ADU he cant do rentals less than 30 days.”

Most of the “Let’s regulate AirBNB” proposals in San Diego treat ADUs better than condos in terms of short term rental regulation.

What people seem to really hate are the big AirBNB companies that rent out dozens of places or convert apartment complexes to AirBNBs.

An ADU has the owner right on site and able to police noise issues etc.

Anyone know of the new creature called a “Junior ADU” actually existing somewhere?

“Junior Accessory Dwelling Units Law In California

The State of California recently adopted legislation (SB 13, AB 68 and AB 881) that defines the standards local jurisdictions can apply to Accessory Dwelling Units (ADU) and Junior Accessory Dwelling Unit (JADU). This legislation is contained in the California State Government Code Section 65852.2. Read more
Junior Accessory Dwelling Unit (JADU) General Provisions

A. There is a limit of one JADU per lot zoned for single-family residences. The JADU shall be constructed within walls of a proposed or existing single-family residence.
b. Maximum size is 500 square feet, however, an additional 150 square foot expansion beyond the physical dimensions of the existing structure is permitted strictly to accommodate ingress and egress to JADU.
c. The JADU shall include a separate entrance from the main entrance to the proposed or existing single-family residence.
d. The JADU shall include an efficiency kitchen, which includes:
i. Cooking facility with appliances (240-volt service outlets now permitted)
ii. Food preparation counter and storage cabinets that are of reasonable size in relation to the size of the JADU
iii. No restriction on maximum waste line diameter
e. A deed restriction is required and must include the following stipulations:
i. Prohibition on the sale of the JADU separate from the sale of the single-family residence.
ii. Restriction on the size and attributes of the JADU.
iii. If a JADU is rented, the unit shall not be rented for a period of less than 30 consecutive calendar days
iv. Owner occupancy of one of the units on-site is required* *Owner-occupancy is not required if the owner is another governmental agency, land trust, or housing organization.
f. The JADU may share sanitation facilities (i.e. bathroom/shower) with a primary residence.
“

[gzz]

I see now, the anti-AirBNB 30-day minimum rental provision is if you want to use the state law to “force” the right to build an ADU within a single family zone that doesn’t allow them.

[sdrealtor]

The ADU is in Encinitas. They didnt have to use the regulations they got trapped by them not getting the benefit of waivers on permits and impact fees when they permitted prior to those but it didnt get finished until the new rules went into force. They got the worst of both ends. Since it is classified as an “ADU” which is meant to help Encinitas address a big affordable housing issue it has to be rented out at least 30 days. He’s booked through next Summer already. People have been staying a few months, extending and requesting to come back annually. Its a beautiful unit. Income approximates long term rental rates on a $2M house. Long term they will move into the unit and rent the main house which is not subject to restrictions on rental period.

Ive been walking 5 to 10 miles a day through neighborhoods nearby. I see several JADU’s under construction in garages.

[sdrealtor]

Time for this weeks broken record report

New listings 25 and uptick from last week but still below average.

New Pendings of 38 so the buyers still beating the bushes out there! That took inventory down another notcth with pendings 13 higher than new lisitngs.

Thats 3 solid of months of declining inventory. I took a quick look at the actives. A traditional SFR (not a detached condo, zero lot line or PUD) now starts around $1M. Under that is gonna be something funky, a fixer or in an impaired location.

Closed sales at 38 highest all year.

Back down with 12 price reductions.

Total houses for sale down to 92 with a median around $1.5 in the active inventory. Pendings held up this week but gotta start falling soon with so little inventory

[sdrealtor]

Sorry for the late update. I got in a bit of a banger and totaled my car on Friday. Walked away but it threw me for a loop.

New listings 31 another uptick from last week and closer to average for this time of year.

New Pendings of 37 so the buyers sare still very active. Its hard to see how they are still finding things to buy as the pendings were 6 higher than new listings.

Closed sales at 29 so a step down but typical for early in the month. Buyers push to close before month ends to minimize prepaid interest at closings.

Back down with 9 price reductions.

Total houses for sale down to 87 with a median around $1.77 in the active inventory. The low end barely exists at the moment for detached homes up here

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Im starting to think all of SD cant possibly be like here. Here’s the latest

New listings 24 back down and seems about average for this time of year.

New Pendings of 35 so the buyers still very active. Its gotta be real tough to be a buyer out there shaking one’s head! Pendings were 11 higher than new listings. There seems to be no end to the demand

Closed sales at 40 were highest of the year. Here’s something astounding I found when reviewing them. 25 closed at or above asking price with most of those above asking. That means unfilled orders and more upward pressure on prices.

Back up with 13 price reductions.

Total houses for sale down to 85. Just a note here as to the reason why inventory doesnt drop as much as the gap between new and pending listings. Each week a bunch of properties come back on the market for a variety of reasons. It can be a buyer that cancelled, a seller that pulled their home of the market to do upgrades or take a break or any number of reasons. Its good to look at the inventory number but I think the gap between new and pending listings is more indicative of market conditions.

[sdrealtor]

Just a heads up. I’ll do an update tomorrow but it will likely be a mess. They switched MLS platform and we had to access to update it since noon on Wednesday. It just re-opened but I think there will be some lag and glitches so data could be wacky this week and possibly next week as local realtors play catch up. Should be back to normal in a couple weeks

[sdrealtor]

No update the transition is too glitchy and I cant get the data Ive been running. if I search for all new listings the last 7 days I get every listing in history of the database as they have all been added to the database in the last few days. We can get back to normal reporting next week.

Until then I’ll report active SFR inventory at 93 which is up from last week but still subject to the new system.

There were 6 brand new listings entered here in last 2 days but only 3 marked pending. The whole transition has thrown us all for a loop so not much value in the last week of data anyway. Best to consider it all no change this this week

[sdrealtor]

I wouldnt read anything into listing activity. Its been a mess the last week and we should see some catch up. You may see a surge of listings this week due to that. Id call it a trend if it keeps going for a couple weeks. I couldnt even log in yesterday. MLS transition to new platform is still struggling to get it right. Sorry no update this week. Not that Id put credence in it but I could not even pull it yesterday.

[sdrealtor]

Going to try to get this rolling again. the transition to the new platform has been very glitchy and I dont completely trust the data yet but we are close

New listings 31 and we need more. A lot more

New Pendings of 34 so the buyers still very active. We really need to fill more orders the next couple months before we get to the Spring surge in demand

Closed sales at 36 and the number for September were way up over last year. Like 40% + up for September

Price reductions down to 8. Virtually not happening unless someone shot way too high

Total houses for sale down to 90.

Just a note to how crazy it is. I ran into a fixer in MM priced just under $500K. Should have been priced at $550K and it went well over that. It had over 70 offers! Im sure a lot were flipper/investors but that is an insane number. Even if 50 were investors that is a ton of unfilled orders out there.

[Escoguy]

70 offers! wow, I feel like mine was easy with 10

Even if I (we) don’t respond to these updates, it is actually very helpful you do them. Not that I’m planning any major actions other than the one I have under contract.

But am thinking of looking at condos closer to the coast in not too distant future.

🙂

[sdrealtor]

My pleasure. The idea that there are 70 people even ready to jump gives us an idea of the depth of the demand. I think we are pretty darn solid on the downside. Upside is hard to predict but dont feel like there’s a lot of downside risk out there right now

This one might be even more shocking to me. Its in my hood. These were the lowest quality homes in the least expensive section of the community, house is just meh upgraded inside for the community and its got big powerlines behind it.

But its got a 17,000 sq ft lot with lots of grass and a pool which apparently is a huge draw. Was listed for $1.25M and closed for $1.38M. Oh and there were 18 offers from people willing to live with all that for a big yard with pool.

Gotta sign off and start digging in back!

https://www.zillow.com/homes/2146-Corte-Moral-Carlsbad,-CA,-92009_rb/16712058_zpid/?

[profhoff]

sdrealtor, what’s your sense of the tight SFH homes in the gated communities near the beach in c’bad off Poinsettia? The houses aren’t massive, the backyards are postage stamp tiny, but it’s west of the 5 and a few minutes walk from the beach.

[Andrew32]

profhoff – are looking to purchase to live or as an investment property?

I’ve been eyeing 92011 to buy in the next few months (currently renting in PQ) and one concern that is keeping me from seriously considering coastal neighborhoods like Waters End is the # of a vacation rentals I see on Airbnb/VBRO. Right now, there are 5+ in Waters End alone.

for me at least, i feel like that will take away from the community aspect of buying into a neighborhood (presumably for good schools + families).

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Andrew32]profhoff – are looking to purchase to live or as an investment property?

I’ve been eyeing 92011 to buy in the next few months (currently renting in PQ) and one concern that is keeping me from seriously considering coastal neighborhoods like Waters End is the # of a vacation rentals I see on Airbnb/VBRO. Right now, there are 5+ in Waters End alone.

for me at least, i feel like that will take away from the community aspect of buying into a neighborhood (presumably for good schools + families).[/quote]

Id stick to the east side of the 5 if buying for a family as a long term residence. Living that close to the beach comes with lots of things most dont consider until they get there. You really have to want to live by the beach and use it almost daily for it to make sense IMO. Ive been around here for 30 years selling real estate most of that time so I think I have a good sense of things.

[profhoff]

The gated communities off Poinsettia have CCRs against weekly rentals. Right now, min rentals are monthly and the smallest houses go for ~$5k and up per month.

Poinsettia Cove has a listing over $1.6m right now that everyone is keeping an eye on.

A listing in Waters End in a poor location just went pending in 4 days at $1.21m list and it’s the smallest model.

Another house is Waters End recently closed over $1.35m – fully loaded.

[sdrealtor]

Gotcha those CCR’s will make it nicer for owners. Waters End is a nice spot and I dont see much downside to holding onto something there. If I owned one Id furnish it really nicely and look to rent it out to people who are remodelling homes or dealing with insurance repairs where they get reimbursed for temporary housing. They tend to have nice big budgets and love the opportunity to spend a few months by the beach. Should be able to get $7 to 8K a month easy that way maybe more doing 2 to 6 month rentals.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=profhoff]sdrealtor, what’s your sense of the tight SFH homes in the gated communities near the beach in c’bad off Poinsettia? The houses aren’t massive, the backyards are postage stamp tiny, but it’s west of the 5 and a few minutes walk from the beach.[/quote]

I think you mentioned you are off to Encinitas/Leucadia so thinking you have one there wondering what to do with. Id hold onto it. I think those will do just fine as there arent any new sfr’s coming in that area again on any scale.

The area will see some more commercial development over time but who knows how long that will take. It will be hotly contested by local government and held to high standards to preserve what is a spectacular spot. The new hotel will bring high end travellers some of whom will look to return to longer term accomodations. Its all upside there IMO

It is in the coastal zone so the AirBnB’s that Andrew would decry as a homeowner are possible. Wouldnt be surprised to see them hit 4 to 5K a week in the next decade.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Reporting of umbers still a little glitchy but getting better.

New listings 37 thats more! keep it coming

New Pendings of 36 buyers still very active.

Closed sales at 27 which may be reporting issue but lower and maybe due to closings clustering more toward month ends

Price reductions up to 13. Virtually all at high end of 1.5 or higher so nothing for most buyers

Total houses for sale up to 99. Still very thin below and just over $1M

Ran into a nice La Costa Twin home last week with a client. Was priced at 750K. Per comps its shouldnt have gone much higher. It went much highher with a bunch of offers

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Reporting of umbers still a little glitchy but getting better.

New listings 45 thats more and a good sign! keep it coming

New Pendings of 44 buyers still very active and more inventory easily consumed by raging market.

Closed sales at 24 which feels low and may be reporting issue we’ll see

Price reductions only 4. Why bother, someone will buy it

Total houses for sale up to 110. Still very thin below and just over $1M. Median listing price is 1.65M

Client ran into 17 offers on a nice townhome in the area. Last sale was 675K but this one was nicer location, 6 months later and very nicely remodelled. Only 6 were countered of the 17 including us. 3 of those 6 were all cash. We offered 50K+ over with no loan or appraisal contingency, short inspection window and a free month rent back to seller. We werent gonna make it easy on the other buyers. Still didnt get it.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Reporting of numbers finally seems to have gotten reliable. That makes this all even more astounding. Just a note to people watching the market. Other markets may not be this crazy.

New listings 22 thats a big drop which is what we expect to happen as we head into the holiday season but not good news for buyers here.

New Pendings of 48! More than double the new listings and a -26! Easily the biggest inventory loss of the year at -26

Thats astounding in the face of limited inventory and a number we saw exceeded only during Summer peak. The buyers arent slowing down yet which bodes for a strong Spring ahead if it continues.

Closed sales at 37 so those high pending counts we have been seeing are showing up now.

Price reductions only 5. Why bother, someone will buy it

Total houses for sale back down to 92. Only 4 below $1m and Im confident 3 of those are negotiating with multple offers. Median listing price is 1.725M up from 1.65M last week

[gzz]

It’s frustrating to see so few sellers price aggressively above 2019/early 2020 prices, or reduce too quickly after listing.

It is nice to see the “upper middle” end of the local market be the strongest segment for once. Also nice to see SD outperforming LA/SF/Seattle. We’re really a relative deal compared to, say, 2015.

[sdrealtor]

They are pricing agressively up here. In my hood prices are $100 to 150K higher than this time last year. We are catching up with CV

[gzz]

SDR: I spoke too soon. Just got a bunch of high but reasonable new listings in 92107.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=gzz]SDR: I spoke too soon. Just got a bunch of high but reasonable new listings in 92107.[/quote] It takes some time for the new comps to close. Until they do they generally price near existing comps and let the market take prices where it may. Once new comps from bidding wars close the new bar is set

[sdrealtor]

Election Update time. ran numbers yesterday and more of the same.

New listings 19 thats a small drop which is what we expect to happen as we head into the holiday season but not good news for buyers here.

New Pendings of 27! Lowest since May as there just isnt much out there to buy. It was overdue to drop but still a -8.

Closed sales at 32 in loine with expectations based upon sales activity.

Price reductions up to 8. If you havent sold you are too high

Total houses for sale still 92. All 4 of those sub $1m homes sold from last week. Median listing price is 1.695M. Just bouncing around but the real take on this is Holy Cow how did we get here?

Oh and good news for clients of mine. After battling through 15 -20 offers on a bunch of properties they got one. We only offered on the best properties learning a long way what it would take to win. We know what the closing prices will be like in the coming weeks on the homes we missed out on which is critical in a market like this. We let lots of other buyers get their orders filled on inferior properties. They got what looks like a good one that could be home for 10 to 20 years if they want it to be. Happy for them:)

[sdrealtor]

Joe time Update. This week looked like last week

New listings 19 less coming on as we head towards holidays.

New Pendings of 30. Limited choices but buyers still rattling the cages. It was a drop of -11.

Closed sales at 34 in line with expectations based upon sales activity.

Price reductions up to 12. Lower it now or wait until after the holidays to sell.

Total houses for sale down to 86. Median listing price is 1.68M.

[sdrealtor]

Update time and first new look in a LONG time

New listings 28 and a reversal in the recent trend.

New Pendings of 20. Limited choices and holidays upon us so no surprise there but…

Thats a plus 8 for the week which is significant in that we have not seen a positive # (besides a couple +1 weeks) since May. Im not gonna call it enough to read much into it but if things do change this would be the frist sign if that.

Closed sales at 37 in line with expectations based upon sales activity.

Price reductions up to 12. Lower it now or wait until after the holidays to sell.

Total houses for sale back up to 101

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Ran the numbers yesterday and we are back to the old trend.

New listings 16 – looks like sellers are starting to shut it down for the holidays

New Pendings of 35 – but buyers sure as heck are not!

Thats a minus 19 for the week. We are back to declining inventory and last week looks like an anomaly.

Closed sales at 34 in line with expectations based upon sales activity.

Price reductions up to 8. All ticket stuff

Total houses for sale back down to 86 with median of nearly $1.8M. Only the really expensive stuff is left

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Ran the numbers yesterday and we are back to the old trend.

New listings 10 – sellers really shutting it down for the holidays

New Pendings of 27 – but buyers sure as heck are not!

Thats a -17 for the week.

Closed sales at 34 in line with expectations based upon sales activity.

Price reductions down to 3. Still all high ticket stuff

Total houses for sale back down to 84 with median of $1.825M.

Anecdotally another model match for my house just closed. My model hasnt had many sales over the years but there were 2 this past Summer almost 10% higher than last year. Then a 3rd came on and just closed another 5% higher and all cash. A 4th just listed with a range starting at the level of the 2 sales this Summer with the top 5% above the most recent one. Its in a worse location, with inferior lot and upgrades to the others. If it sells in that range that would be nuts but I guess thats where we are at. It seems like prices up here are almost even with CV now

And in positive holiday news. Client in escrow on a great property in Encinitas after losing out on several others in bidding wars. Its got great access to beach area and he’s thrilled. I wrote a personal letter to seller on this one that hit all the right notes. We met them and she said it had her in tears. Sometimes these things are about more than just money. Happy Holidays everyone!

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Ran the numbers yesterday

New listings 15 – a little uptick but still holiday slow down

New Pendings of 23 – buyers still out!

Thats a -8 for the week.

Closed sales at 39

Price reductions down to 6. Still all high ticket stuff

Total houses for sale back down to 79 with median of $2.15M! Is this Carlsbad/Encinitas or RSF?

[sdrealtor]

Update time.

New listings 7 – Zzzzzzzz……..

New Pendings of 16 – buyers still out!

Thats a -9 for the week.

Closed sales at 35

Price reductions down to 6. Still all high ticket stuff

Total houses for sale back down to 66 with median of $2.195M!

[sdrealtor]

Update time.

New listings 10 – Zzzzzzzz……..

New Pendings of 15 – buyers still out!

Thats a -5 for the week.

Closed sales at 29

Price reductions at 2.

Total houses for sale down to 54 with median of $2.235M! Almost cut in half last month

[sdrealtor]

Ok guess I owe y’all an update. I ran #’s last week and this.

Last Week

New listings 8 – Zzzzzzzz……..

New Pendings of 15 – buyers still out!

Thats a -7 for the week.

Closed sales at 23

Price reductions at 2.

Total houses for sale down to 51 with median of $2.2M

[sdrealtor]

This week

New listings 11 – Zzzzzzzz……..

New Pendings of 16 – buyers still out!

Thats a -5 for the week.

Closed sales at 22

Price reductions at 3.

Total houses for sale down to 45 with median of $2.2M

This should be the bottom for inventory. It really has been surprising how steady pendings have been through the holidays, the pandemic and the lack of inventory.

SD has been predicted to be the #1 market in the country and my area feels like ground zero for that. Pricewise we have pretty much caught up with Carmel Valley. I feel so fortunate to have arrived here when I did, to have gotten the home I did, to have had the foresight to keep it through some personal challenges and to live here. I still pinch myself frequently

[sdrealtor]

Time for the market to start waking up. Lets see what the numbers say.

New listings 18 – waking up a little but gonna need lots more! These numbers need to quickly get into the 40+ range to come anywhere close to meeting demand

New Pendings of 15 – buyers never stopped looking

Thats a +3 for the week.

Closed sales at 23

Price reductions at 1.

Total houses for sale down to 52 with median of $2.4M

Looks like last week was the bottom barring a complete market boom. There is no more low end here anymore for single family houses. Under $1M barely exists beyond a fixer or something encumbered in some way.

Im reminded of a conversation I had many years ago, Pre-Piggington for me. It was circa 2005 with another top agent in my hood. I saw the storm coming and was trying to warn other agents with limited success. I told her to prepare for major downturn in the next 5 years but that long term all the pieces were in place for South Carlsbad to become our version of Newport Beach. I said hold onto what you can for future generations of your family for the long term as eventualy prices would explode here. Those days arrived and while its hard to say how much higher we go how quickly we are headed for even higher levels IMO.

[Andrew32]

We bought last month in 92011 and felt lucky to have had the opportunity to buy new construction and not battle other people for a resale (which we were eyeing but saw nothing we liked much, regardless of price).

We feel good about our purchase and while there was some compromise on the lot size, the house meets our needs long term and has an attached guest suite with a full kitchen and separate address we will use right away for our nanny, then in-laws, then potentially income-generating.

We agree with your assessment of the area and our goal right now is to keep the home as a dual rental property if we ever choose to buy another primary home.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Andrew32]We bought last month in 92011 and felt lucky to have had the opportunity to buy new construction and not battle other people for a resale (which we were eyeing but saw nothing we liked much, regardless of price).

We feel good about our purchase and while there was some compromise on the lot size, the house meets our needs long term and has an attached guest suite with a full kitchen and separate address we will use right away for our nanny, then in-laws, then potentially income-generating.

We agree with your assessment of the area and our goal right now is to keep the home as a dual rental property if we ever choose to buy another primary home.[/quote]

Welcome to the neighborhood and obviously only one place this could be. I think you will do fine. Only new construction for an SFR in the zip that was left unless someone gets their hands on the big ranch property by the lagoon but I think the city has their eyes on it. Pricing seemed very fair especially for a new home in that ZIP. I think you’ll do well there over the long term. See ya round!

[sdrealtor]

We should have seem an uptick in new listings. Lets see what we got.

New listings 14 – not a good sign and really need this to start pumping out more

New Pendings of 22 – buyers never stopped looking

Thats a -8 for the week.

Closed sales at 17

Price reductions at 4.

Total houses for sale down to 51 with median of $2.235M

Hoping we get more inventory to keep upward pressure on prices reasonable. I have a particular interest in how the market is going to value ADU’s as Im hoping to add one. Ive seen a couple sales that seem to indicated the market has no issue adding 200Kish for 1BR/1BA 600sf ish unit. Im liking those numbers as Id like to add a 2/2 around 1000 sf ish out back

Having given up on Urban Metro Monitor for it really not being very interesting Im gonna start one for MM which i find very interesting and relevant. Look for it soon

[sdrealtor]

Update time. The uptick in listings should have started and along with the next two will give us a good glimpse as to how the Spring season will go. Lets see what we got.

New listings 14 – really expected/hoped for more. It better pick up soon because….

New Pendings of 23 – buyers are relentless!

Thats a -9 for the week.

Closed sales at 12

Price reductions at 5.

Total houses for sale down to 50 with median of $2.29M

Inventory below $1.5 is very scarce. Herd of 50+ showings on a $1.4M home this weekend. Most of the inventory is high priced in Encinitas.

There is very little in So Carlsbad which should be 3 to 4 times the size of Encinitas market. There are 19 homes on the market in So Carlsbad and only 9 below $1.5M. There should be closer to 100 in a more normal market.

This is looking like we could get another 10% bump this year along the NCC unless something starts changing soon.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Not getting better here either.

New listings 21 – a little uptick in new listings but….

New Pendings of 33 – many buyers for all of them!

Thats a -12 for the week.

Closed sales at 15

Price reductions at 4.

Total houses for sale down to 48 with median of $2.32M

There are currenlty 8 SFR’s for sale in 92009 and 2 in 92011. There should be 100 or more. We are selling a $2M home almost everyday. These are homes that used to take months to sell if they sold at all. Just about everything under $2M is on market less than a week. Send reinforcements!

House like mine listed about a month ago for $100K more than better similar homes have sold a couple months ago. It sat until they lowered it to prior comps that were nicer condition, more upgraded, better lot, not impaired location and views. This one needs a complete redo and has lived a hard life the last 20 years. If it closes at or near that price, the market is already 5% higher than 2 months ago. It looks like 10% bump this year is baked in already

[gzz]

92107 inventory is a rounding error from zero. Only 6 single family houses, for 1.3, 1.9, and the rest 2+ million. Only 1 condo and 3 townhouses for a total MLS inventory of 10 in an area where a strong month in a normal market has 40 sales.

Another way to look at it is that there are about 15,000 people in rental households in 92107. If only 4% of them are making plans to buy, that’s 600 potential buyers chasing……. 0 houses, 2 townhouses, and a single 1/1 condo under $900,000. And they will compete with investment buyers, out of area buyers, “buy another home and keep the old one as a rental” buyers,” parents buying for their kids, etc.

There certainly could be another covid/9-11/1929 crash scale event in 2021. Outside of that, we’re headed straight up. Lots of buyers, virtually no sellers.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Not getting better here getting worse. I think this is a watershed week. Not expecting change , hoping for change

New listings 22 – a little uptick in new listings but….

New Pendings of 26 – many buyers for all of them!

Thats a -4 for the week.

Closed sales at 23

Price reductions at 0.

Total houses for sale down to 44 with median of $2.125M

Got a letter from a family from LA that went to my neighborhood two days ago looking for a home. Got a call today from a realtor on my unlisted/DNC list number asking if I wanted to sell my home. Thank goodness for the stock market.

As gzz said, lots of buyers, no sellers

House just came on the market 1/2 mile away. Bought last January for $1.34M. Listed for $1.68M which is 25% above what they paid one year ago. That pretty much says it all

[sdrealtor]

Update time. It didnt get better. Not only is it tough to buy a house, in many cases its tough to even get an appointment to see one. Houses are getting listed with Sat/Sun 12-5pm showing windows with appointments every 15 minutes. Thats 40 slots and they get filled very quickly. Been shut out from even getting to see houses a few times already.

New listings 20 – just not getting much in the way of homes under $1.5M and things higher are selling too

New Pendings of 16 – not much to buy!

Thats a +4 for the week. Dont read too much into an increase.

Closed sales at 12

Price reductions at 0.

Total houses for sale down to 52 with median of $1.822M. Prices arent going down, we had 8 houses go pending above $2M. Just a less inventory skewed to the top end for now

Only way to solve this is more inventory and where it comes from I havent a clue at this point

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=sdrealtor]
Only way to solve this is more inventory and where it comes from I havent a clue at this point[/quote]

Well, not to nitpick… but it could also be solved with higher interest rates. (Not saying that’s likely mind you! Just there’s more than one way to skin a cat.)

[sdrealtor]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=sdrealtor]
Only way to solve this is more inventory and where it comes from I havent a clue at this point[/quote]

Well, not to nitpick… but it could also be solved with higher interest rates. (Not saying that’s likely mind you! Just there’s more than one way to skin a cat.)[/quote]

Might make it worse. Who would move if they had to give up a 2.5 % mortgage? That’s not the answer

[sdrealtor]

Only getting tougher here also.

New listings 23 – just not getting much in the way of homes under $1.5M and things higher are selling too

New Pendings of 31 – put it on the market and its gone!

Thats a -8 for the week.

Closed sales at 23

Price reductions at 3. Obviously shot way too high on those

Total houses for sale down to 48 with median of $1.987M.

In my 3 zip area (92009/92011/92024) there are 104 pendings and 48 actives. Ten actives under 1.5M and basically nothing under $1M. Half the listings over $2M.

Talking to agents in my hood they are seeing buyers pouring in from Bay Area and LA. FSD just announced his pending return from West LA in coming year. Piles of offers and only the strongest most motivated buyers have a shot. Houses routinely in escrow $100 to 200K over asking. I think we are about 20% y-o-y in my hood maybe more with no end in sight.

Ten years ago I was laughed at here when I tried to explain the area had and was fundamentally changing into Newport Beach. That it truly was going to be “different this time”. The dumpy chart house in cardiff is gonna be a Mastro’s. The Hyatt Alila Marea is opening soon overlooking Ponto. A week there starts at $4700 all in for a hotel room not a suite. A studio suite starts around a G a night. Buckle up its on along the NCC!! Wont be long until we see Real Housewives of North County Coastal San Diego

[sdrealtor]

More of the same

New listings 30 – little better but not close to whats needed

New Pendings of 32 – still a buyer for any decent listing!

Thats a -2 for the week.

Closed sales at 25

Price reductions at 1. Price reduced from $6.6M to $6.4M.

Total houses for sale down to 53 with median of $1.999M. (note: ran numbers earlier today and when I just rechecked before posting its already back down to 48)

In Sept a model match to my house sold for $1.24M with the best lot in the community (13,000 sq ft canyon view lot with pool and plenty of room to add pool house or ADU). Tonight a model match closed for 1.275M in poor condition with no upgrades since it was built in 99 on a small lot on a busy corner. These represent the same model but the best vs the worst home in my tract. Today the best one could go for close to 1.5M. The market has changed that much that fast.

We should have an even more compelling example soon There’s a house nearby that sold January 2020 for $1.34M. It came back on 13 months later and is in escrow with asking price of $1.679M. It went almost immediately. When it closes we will know how much the y-o-y appreciation has been with a matched pair. It should be at least 25%. I dont know what else to say.

[sdrealtor]

As I mentioned in MM monitor we are next level here also

New listings 17 – falling off a cliff is not an exageration. We should be seeing an acceleration in new inventory not vice versa this time of year

New Pendings of 34 – massive demand!

Thats a -17 for the week.

Closed sales at 29

Price reductions at 3.

Total houses for sale down to 42 with median of $2.33M.

As I mentioned a house down the street 3/2 2000 SF 1 story built in 99 nicely updated since backing up to open space hit market at $1.2M. This time last year maybe $1.05M for that house. Closed for $1.35M cash with 10 day escrow. While it may be a slight exception thats 30% y-o-y.

Things have sure changed fast around here. This is a very different place than it was which may explain something im starting to see.

There are a lot of older homes in Encinitas/Leucadia that have been in families for decades. They seem to stay that way and sales are fairly rare. As I review the new listings each day I get a sense we are seeing more of those hitting the market than we usually do. There was some elevated turnover in the late 90’s but its been fairly quiet for the last 20 years. Maybe we will start to see more of the prime lot older properties hit the market.

Its just an early feeling now but perhaps Im onto something that Im gonna keep following. I’ll call it one part astronomical prices to cash out, one part Prop 19 taking away low inherited tax basis and one whopping part we dont like that this place is becoming more and more impacted by rich outsiders. Somethings going on….

Looking at the active inventory most of it is in Encinitas rather than S Carlsbad which is not typical. Of course it is the higher priced stuff that sits on the market a bit longer and thats Encinitas but S Carlsbad is blowing up.

There is 1 detached house in 92011 right now and it is a trustee sale (husband passed away a couple years ago and wife either passed also or incapacitated). Thats basically ZERO on the market.

Things arent much better in the much larger 92009 that is my home. There are 13 on the market of which 6 have been on less than a week. Of the 7 on more than a week 5 are over $2M (two years ago there would be a small handful of sales above $2M each year), one is a BK sale and the other has been off and on due to something going on with seller so hasnt really been available to see. It is extremely rare for a home to last more than a week these days. Those that do are either sorting out a bidding war, very high end where demand is slower or vastly overpriced. I dont think it could be any hotter but Ive saying that and it keeps getting hotter

[profhoff]

To add to your list sdrealtor of what’s going on, you can’t leave out the pandemic! I’ve noticed that places offering office space, good sized backyards, and areas in the house for different functions are moving quickly.

The ‘hood I’m in doesn’t really have backyards, but the proximity to the ocean is big plus and maybe makes up for the little backyards.

I’ll add that our new house is a single story! SCORE.

[ncsd760]

Profhoff congrats on coming to Leucadia! A single-story is a score. Water’s End is very pretty and I think active families will always want that area because it’s walking distance to surf and Pacific Rim is the best Cbad elementary school.

We are in a similar-to-Water’s End neighborhood off of Vulcan and very happy. A single level is VERY appealing as we have 2 story.

I think the whole pandemic is what has made lesser LC Oaks houses sell for so much. There are just more rooms and enough yards. Recent sales on Corte Brisa and Sitio Corazon/Sitio Caliente have stunned me. I remember when ColRich was sitting on an inventory of those new in 2011-2012 and begging you to take one.

Also considering we are now in the sport of riffing about individual homes (I loved that Olivenhain one) I am watching 348 Fulvia https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/348-Fulvia-St-92024/home/167449771. I don’t think the lot was the better one of these by any stretch (weird yard and neighbors above you) but it sold for $2.4 something new not 18 months ago.

[profhoff]

ncsd760, if you live where I think you do, then we came so close to buying there too, though we never made it into escrow in that particular development.

There was one we just loved the look of – we called it the “koi pond” house, but by the time we could get some time to go over to see it, it was in escrow.

It’s on the market again and finally went pending though it took a while. there was another one in there that backed up to a house with RVs packed in the backyard and the sellers put some bushes up, but I think it wasn’t enough and they gave up trying to sell and are renting it.

That’s a great ‘hood because it will soon have the roundabout and train crossing. I can’t wait to see how it’s going to work getting rid of parking along the train tracks on the 101.

In my next post I’ll talk about Azure Leucadia – where the eye popper on Fulvia went pending with a RIDICULOUS list price. Just insane.

[profhoff]

We intimately knew Azure Leucadia. I was following all the news about the developer for YEARS and when the last lawsuit finally fell away, I called the developer and begged them to add me to the list. They did and claimed I was “near the top.”

We really liked the lone single story on Fulvia but “near the top” doesn’t mean “at the top” so the single story went to somebody else. But we had our pick of the rest and decided on the one directly east of the single story. So things are chugging along, we have the contracts, it’s all good, and then our landscape guy goes over and gets very worried about the drainage and pipe situation. And if you know Fulvia, it floods at the corner of Fulvia and Hymmetus, so we were already a little worried, even though we weren’t at the corner.

Anyway, we passed, and they ended up selling it pretty quick. Ocean views were spectacular from the second story and it was west of 5.

But there wasn’t much backyard and the neighbors behind were in your face.

The one on the corner (where it floods) took forever to sell. we drove by last time it rained and you won’t believe what the owners of the corner house did – they put in another house in their side/back yard (ADU I guess), completely ruining the look and feel of what would have been our house.

You have to drive by there and look at it.

And the one on the north end of Fulvia is next to the biobasin and also was one of the last to sell. Neighbor impact is insane and that went pending quickly so we have to assume full price or close enough for $3.8m. THAT’S NUTS. FOR $3.8M, who wants that kind of crazy neighbor impact.

[ncsd760]

profhoff we actually live in the OTHER newer-off-Vulcan < 3000 square foot tract...though we considered the neighborhood you're speaking of since they were being built at the time and were the comps on our appraisal. There are a few nice lots but the lots felt a bit more cramped than where we ended up (and our lot). I do think that those are fantastic floorplans. RE: the streetscape/roundabout I am personally excited though some neighbors detest it and I expect them to sell when the project is said and done. sdr I would love your thoughts on how that will impact prices and I think this may be an extension of your Encinitas theory where locals are going to leave as it changes from NYC/Bay area transplants or just newer out of area money. Yes that home is along my dog walking and Pannikin-jogging route. Terrible floods and that ADU killed the yard. I would not have considered the ones facing Hymettus since I prefer to not have a house "flagstone" to me. I am losing my mind at Fulvia $3.8 pending and also the ugly one on Paxton pending at $2.8. The one on Paxton at least has a better lot though that floorplan was odd when new and is odder still a decade lader.

[sdrealtor]

On the streetscape/roundabout issue I dont see much of an impact beyond annoyance factor to locals. I think its a micro force and the macro forces are just too pwoerful in the area and ready for yet another leg up. Once the pandemic passes the completely re-done Hyatt formerly Four Seasons and La Costa Resort are gonna be a huge draw with access to a greatly improved beach area. The Alila marea opens soon and it is gonna have a massive impact on the area IMO. The Seabluffe folks who complained about it being built because they didnt want the vacation rental competition or traffic are gonna be huge beneficiaries. A room there starts at $4000 a week while a 2 or 3BR non view property in Seabluffe goes for $3K a week. Once you fall in love with the area why would you not prefer a private large home right next door. Prices should soar in there for rentals and sales.

I beleive that new resort will attract billionaires, pro athletes, celebrities and the very wealthy families looking for a true oceanfront beach resort in SD. While I have mixed personal feelings about it overtaking the pristine location, I am confident its gonna be a bonanza bringing a lot of focus to this area among the very very wealthy not just in the US but abroad. It will be our version of the Laguna Montage with a world class restarant in the works.

While there will always be bumps in the road over time I see nothing but boom times for property owners down there with spillover out to me as well. Hope thats what you like:)

[sdrealtor]

ncsd
I think its everything going up. I know Sitio Caliente very well and while Brisa might be a little closer in the Colrich homes are much nicer especially those with views. Sold one to a client on the canyon with downstairs master when new and hard to give away back in 11. They ultimately decided they never used the upstairs and traded up to nice one story with a view nearby which is always a struggle to find. It took a few years to do it but they are in a great forever spot.

Listed another there a few years ago on the canyon when it was next to impossible to sell a house in 92009 for over 1.3M. Back then these homes were viewed as practically SEH. My how things have changed with SEH blowing up the last couple years along with the coast.

That Fulvia home brings back fond memories. Back in the early days on this blog during the end of the bubble 05/06, I spent a lot of time trying to explain how the prime coastal spots were in very strong hands and would get sold off when things corrected. One poster found the Fulvia parcel on google maps and was trying to convince me he’d someday buy the whole thing for a few hundred K when things melted down. I set him straight that would never happen and it would held until the market would value it approriately. He vanished long ago and IIRC ended up somewhere in the Inland Empire

[profhoff]

Re: Fulvia, now we get to see what somebody does with the lot on Fulvia and Leucadia Blvd. Sold last year, but no action yet. My guess is several big bombers with ocean view.

[ncsd760]

sdr I agree with your take and am glad to hear it from a real industry expert since of course, I am biased. Bay Laurel prices have gone up a bit though no sales here since the two in fall and the cheaper of the two was all original and has since been redone.

I would say the lot on Fulvia and then the 2 BIG lots on the corner of Hygeia and Glaucus are maybe the last opportunities to subdivide and build 6+ homes as far as west of 5 funky town is concerned.

I know something is supposed to happen with that old greenhouse just west of the La Costa Ave chevron but I can’t find plans anywhere and have only seen the rendering for the apartments they want to put on Matteson’s Florist.

[profhoff]

ncsd760 – re: the 48 proposed houses in the development west of 5 off La Costa, if you google various combos of “David Meyer,” “David Meyer consultant,” “DCM Properties,” and “Weston family,” with or without keywords like “Batiquitos Lagoon,” and “48-unit” a lot of info will come up about the development, including the lawsuits, appeals, and plans.

From my read, it looks like the project has survived the latest appeal by the Batiquitos Lagoon Foundation to the Coastal Commission.

44 of the houses will be market rate and only 4 will be affordable as part of a density bonus deal.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=profhoff]ncsd760 – re: the 48 proposed houses in the development west of 5 off La Costa, if you google various combos of “David Meyer,” “David Meyer consultant,” “DCM Properties,” and “Weston family,” with or without keywords like “Batiquitos Lagoon,” and “48-unit” a lot of info will come up about the development, including the lawsuits, appeals, and plans.

From my read, it looks like the project has survived the latest appeal by the Batiquitos Lagoon Foundation to the Coastal Commission.

44 of the houses will be market rate and only 4 will be affordable as part of a density bonus deal.[/quote]

FWIW David Meyer is married to one of Ecke’s

[sdrealtor]

Thanks but I half recoil and half laugh when referred to as an “industry expert” as the term is so overused and abused by all the “neighborhood experts”. Just a guy with a deep experience as market analyst in prior careers 20+ years ago applying that to my passion for following real estate especially in our micro market. While I have a very strong track record with my predictions they are simply opinions albeit I like to think well informed and fact based.

Since the last BL sales in Fall I’d comfortably add at least 150 to 200K if not more without even looking at surrounding markets. Its that hot. Nice neighborhood I spent a fair amount dropping my son of to a friend whose family lives there until they all started driving. It will and should continue to do well.

Im not sure exactly where i read it, likely one of the local facebook groups but here are some things going on. The land by the Chevron is set to be developed into a bunch of single family homes. Im not sure if its a separate parcel but there was talk of a road side motel there at one time. Also just south of the Alila Marea from Robertos North there is developement under review for a variety of condos, hotel, timeshare etc. At some point its gonna get torn down and redveloped there also.

And then there is the big greenhouses at Vulcan where they proposed an ugly apartment complex that looked more like a generic assisted living facility. Hopefully something nicer designed gets put there.

I dont know the status of Hygeia/Glaucus but that is a nice large parcel that will get subdivided someday. I also wonder about the palm tree lot at Eolus and Leucadia and if someday that will get carved up.

The area is really in the midst of a renaisance and Im proud to have put together what I’d argue was the best deal anyone got west of 5 during the downturn. Sold a good friend a property that literally looks like a gated Brentwood estate for just over $1M ten years ago. Its gotta be well north of $3M now if not approaching $4M. He’s the biggest winner

[sdrealtor]

PH, yes a 1 story is a major score and I dont see under 1.5 for anything like what you have to sell. In Leucadia you dont need a huge yard, just space to create a nice outdoor environment or two to enjoy.

Lots of really good solid agents around here. Ive worked with many that are very good and Im sure you got one of em now

[sdrealtor]

Welcome to broken record Tuesday here also

New listings 29 – nice to see us get back up to a more reasonable level but nowhere close to what we need

New Pendings of 30 – no slowing in sight!

Thats a -1 for the week.

Closed sales at 18

Price reductions at 4 (pretty much all high dollar stuff that was hard to price)

Total houses for sale back to 52 with median of $1.99M.

A couple thoughts. First as much as I love talking about real estate, I love talking NCC my home for the last 25 years even more. Thanks to the posters profhoff and ncsd760 for joining in the fun and bringing the local color. It is appreciated.

Second, it does seem like we are starting to get a little more inventory particularly on the lower end. Nothing I can put my finger on specifically but just a sense from pouring over the data every day. It would be nice for that to continue and show up in the data too.

As I look over data its rare to see a house sit on the market more than 7 days or to not sell over asking price. Its just that kind of market with no end in sight.

Last, I work all over SD and have to say of everywhere I work we have the best group of agents up here. There are many competent, ethical and expereinced agents up here which I cant say for everywhere. Really the best of the best from my experience

And a quick p.s. If there is a market as hot as the NCC its the 4S/Del Sur market. That one is nuts also

[sdrealtor]

Update time and Im in a very good mood! Saw a realtor friend touring a nearby property very close to me with the homeowner and Id love to have a new, different neighbor there:)

New listings 23 – big drop in new listings

New Pendings of 36 – no slowing in sight!

Thats a -13 for the week.

Closed sales at 16 – suffering from lack of inventory

Price reductions at 6 (pretty much all high dollar stuff that was hard to price)

Total houses for sale 49 with median of $1.709M. A lot of higher price stuff sold last week which pulled the median down.

(Footnote:last week I originally reported 42 last week and that was a typo I fixed as it was 52)

Lack of inventory continues to be a big problem here and everywhere. Anecdotally im seeing signs that more is on the way near me between coming soon listings and my grapevine. Owners are taking note of these prices and it should continue shaking more loose. Nothing would make me happier than seeing one in particular change hands.

In another sign of how much things have changed up here, in the last week 2 homes sold for $3M and 2 more for $4M! Even more astounding 3 homes hit the market in Encinitas this week with asking prices of $6.9M, $7.9M and $8M. There’s another at $6M about to hit the market.

[sdrealtor]

Update time

New listings 34 – finally seeing some surge in new listings

New Pendings of 41 – buyers surging too!

Thats a -7 for the week.

Closed sales at 31 –

Price reductions at 7

Total houses for sale 57 with median of $1.9M.

A few anecdotes. Just heard another neighbor is moving. They have a house full of kids and no family. These prices make a triumphant return to the Midwest close to family with a lot of cash in ones pocket look more and more appealing. This is a phenomena I saw a lot of in 03 and 04. My kids and I lost lots of good friends who took the money anbd moved back home. Not my favorite trend but it is what it is.

When I look at for sale inventory in Encinitas over the years, it has traditionally been skewed toward the bread and butter family neighborhoods along the El Camino Real. Not anymore and homes there are getting harder and harder to come by. What I see is 70 to 80% of the inventory in Leucadia, West of the 5 and neighborhoods just east of the 5. These are the neighborhoods dominated by oldtimers and I have never seen so many cashing out. I think some could be the impending prop 19 impact but just as much this area continues to change fundamentally and very quickly as I predicted it would 15 years ago. Wealth is pouring in and old time locals arent loving that. The community character is changing dramatically. Welcome to NewPorsche Beach – San Diego edition

[ncsd760]

I am hearing lots of murmurs of sales myself…

We were original North LCO owners….many people cashing out now who can double their investment even on no-canyon-rim. Anecdotally there are a lot of people who bought new or newer homes here in the late 90’s or early to mid 00s for their “young” families…now the kids are moved out or at least in college and mom and dad want to be closer to the beach (or on one floor) and the prices make it worth it.

[sdrealtor]

I am firmly in that demographic as an orginal LCV guy approaching 4X. Between capital gains, liking where I am and hating to move I’ll probably be here for the duration. That is unless there is a downturn and something gets built new and right sized for me that makes sense. In that case, Id consider renting this out and picking up another. Im not counting on it.

[sdrealtor]

Update time up in gridlocked nirvana. No let up!

New listings 19 – big drop off. People must be busy working on their taxe….Oh nevermind!

New Pendings of 37 – buyers surging too!

Thats a -18 for the week.

Closed sales at 45 –

Price reductions at 3

Total houses for sale 55 with median of $1.995M.

Quick note about methodology.

I only include new listings that hit the market. Some are entered into the MLS as sold or in escrow before processing so never available to buyers at large.

That is one reason we can have a lot more pendings than new listings without inventory increasing. The other is some sales come back on the market so not new listing. Of course they re sell quickly often for more but that is another matter.

The circus comes to town tomorrow as a home within earshot finally allows showing after a week of “coming soon” status. Im looking forward to my front row seat

Anecdote from the field talking to some high volume agents in CV. The market above $3M is starting to slow down a little while below that it rages on. Up until this year $2M+ was considered high end but now many tract homes go above $2M. Now the high end starts around $3 – 3.5M along the coast

[sdrealtor]

Update time along the NCC.

New listings 19 – drip….drip….drip

New Pendings of 28 – plenty of demand

Thats a -9 for the week.

Closed sales at 26 –

Price reductions at 3

Total houses for sale 61 with median of $2.148M.

Enjoyed my front row seat for the two days of showings I was in town. Talked to many of them to get a sense where they were coming from, who they were and who they werent.

Who they werent. They werent foreign buyers or first generation Americans.

Who they were. Families with school age kids from the area looking to move up or from the Bay Area/LA looking for better quality of life and schools. Id guess mostly mid 30’s to mid 40’s. A few had grown up in SD county and now that work allowed them to WFH they saw this as an opportunity to come back to a place they loved with jobs that previously werent available here.

In my neighborhood of about a thousand homes, nine came on the market in the last 30 days. All sold the within a week with multiple offers. Two fell out of escrow and went right back in. Currently nothing available as we are about to hit the peak demand of early May. Records have already been set and likely more to come.

[gzz]

Is the top of point loma underperforming NCC?

New construction from 2017 only priced 24.4% over 2017 price.

https://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-210009287-4410-Adair-St-San-Diego-CA-92107

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4410-Adair-St-San-Diego-CA-92107/17060935_zpid/?

Really nice interior and exterior both. Only negative is the ugly animal skin rug and the tiny vanity mirrors that lack storage.

[sdrealtor]

High end is different but yes it looks like it is. You should really set up a Point Loma thread. I set these threads up to be hyper local

[sdrealtor]

Update time along the NCC.

New listings 16 – less not more. supply falling

New Pendings of 39 – plenty of demand. demand rising

Thats a -23 for the week.

Closed sales at 25 –

Price reductions at 2

Total houses for sale 49 with median of $2.1M.

Nearby house is in escrow $200K above asking. There were a bunch of offers and one significantly higher that didnt stick beyond the first couple days. Will be a neighborhood record which is a bit of a shock as the house is average at best for neighborhood but yard is great which speaks to the value of land on the coast. Was out of town last weekend and missed those showings but met buyers when they did inspection. Another young family coming from Bay Area. One has new local job and other will WFH. Pleasant surprise is getting a little more diversity which I appreciate. Closed price will represent well over 30% y-o-y.

Around here May is usually peak demand with relo buyers rolling into town. I dont know if that will be the case this year but there is nothing on the table for them right now with little relief in sight.

[profhoff]

I wonder if things will slow down as more and more people get vaccinated and we find our collective way to some kind of back to (new) normal.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=profhoff]I wonder if things will slow down as more and more people get vaccinated and we find our collective way to some kind of back to (new) normal.[/quote]

I wouldn’t discount that new arrivals will have friends. Friends that will visit. Friends that will look around and ask themselves why am I doing that when I could be doing this?

[profhoff]

$400k over list. Huge lot, pano ocean. Vintage leucadia build your dream house entry price now $2.7m.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/1002-Hymettus-Ave-92024/home/4065194?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

[sdrealtor]

[quote=profhoff]$400k over list. Huge lot, pano ocean. Vintage leucadia build your dream house entry price now $2.7m.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/1002-Hymettus-Ave-92024/home/4065194?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link%5B/quote%5D

I should reach out to the new owner. I have the perfect furniture for that house. I inherited my parents 1950’s Herman Miller furniture bought from store in NYC and well cared for all these years. i even have the original sales reciepts. Eames and George Nelson stuff. Its amazing

[profhoff]

$2m for Portofino conveniently located ON the freeway. Now I’ve seen it all. Will they get it?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13297-Portofino-Dr-Del-Mar-CA-92014/16765530_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

[sdrealtor]

[quote=profhoff]$2m for Portofino conveniently located ON the freeway. Now I’ve seen it all. Will they get it?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13297-Portofino-Dr-Del-Mar-CA-92014/16765530_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare%5B/quote%5D

This is the one that puts my jaw on the floor. These are least expensive detached homes in this area. They are condominium ownership as land is owned in common. This is close to where the landslide was a decade ago. Kinda changes everything

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3301-Dorado-Pl-92009/home/3868424

[sdduuuude]

[quote=profhoff]$2m for Portofino conveniently located ON the freeway. Now I’ve seen it all. Will they get it?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13297-Portofino-Dr-Del-Mar-CA-92014/16765530_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare%5B/quote%5D

Yeah, but it’s in the slow lane.

[profhoff]

Sdrealtor wrote

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=profhoff]

I wouldn’t discount that new arrivals will have friends. Friends that will visit. Friends that will look around and ask themselves why am I doing that when I could be doing this?[/quote]

Indeed.

[sdrealtor]

Update time along the NCC. TNumbers for week ended yesterday

New listings 23 – a little better and hopefully more to come as end of school year approaches. I know of a neighbor thats waiting for that but

New Pendings of 35 – plenty of demand and peak demand around the corner

Thats a -12 for the week.

Closed sales at 30 –

Price reductions at 1

Total houses for sale 48 with median of $1.97M.

Prices just keep going. Like the one above Im seeing homes in what were the least expensive neighborhoods in 92009 going in the 1.1M+ range. Pre COVID it was possible to get into my neighborhood under $1M, now its starts around 1.3. At this pace we will be Bay Area pricing in another year or two with a nice 4BR tract home $2M+. Not gonna say it will happen but not gonna say otherwise at this point

Current reports for SD say 21% y-o-y appreciation but that includes condos which have not kept up with detached. Market is up 30% for detached homes many places

[sdrealtor]

Update time along the NCC. Numbers for week ended yesterday

New listings 26 – a little better and hopefully more to come as end of school year approaches. Hoping we are over 30 this time next week

New Pendings of 33 – plenty of demand and peak demand around the corner

Thats a -7 for the week.

Closed sales at 46 –

Price reductions at 1

Total houses for sale 57 with median of $1.86M.

Big weeks ahead. If inventory is gonna build its gotta start now. More inventory is only thing that could slow down pricing

Last year I sold the only house in my hood under $1M ($995k)and maybe the last one we will ever see. It was one of the smallest and during the height of the pandemic shut down with tenants in place so it was sold as-is and blind to buyer. Prices ranged from $1M to 1.5M last year. Lowest sale this year is $1.275 for a bigger one in impaired location and at best fair condition. Its pretty much 1.3 and up now here. Prices are now $1.3M to 1.9M with $2m sales in sight for the right home. How did we get here?

[sdrealtor]

Update time along the NCC. Numbers for week ended yesterday. Inventory not building much here either.

New listings 29 – at least number held up from last week but really hoping for a lot more to help get prices under control

New Pendings of 33 – plenty of demand and we are pretty much at peak demand.

Thats a -4 for the week.

Closed sales at 33 –

Price reductions at 5

Total houses for sale 59 with median of $1.995M.

Prices still feel 30% higher year over year though not reflected in stats yet as data is a lagging indiocator. The homes are still in escrow that will verify that firmly. One year ago my home was on Zillow at 1.165M and today its at 1.415.When neighbor house closes in a week or so mine should go up at least $150K if not a lot more. It could literally show up around 40% y-o-y. Its been a crazy year

Last 2 weeks the 3 highest closed sales are $5.7M, $7M and $8M! And 5 closed sales between $3M and $4M. This is not your parent’s North Coutny

[Andrew32]

40% seems reachable at this pace. Our small new development community in 92011 switched from priority list to competitive bidding and I can tell you that bids (not even winning ones) for our floor plan are coming in 15%+ higher now than what we paid in December when we purchased at a set price.

[sdrealtor]

Congrats on getting in while you could. Remember you posting before and hopefully road completion is minimal impact

[Andrew32]

Road impact hasn’t been bad at all. It was nicer before it opened but we knew what was coming. We’ll see how busy it gets once everyone starts going back to the office and everyone in Bressi Ranch realizes it’s now their fastest way to the 5 south.

[sdrealtor]

Update time along the NCC. Numbers for week ended yesterday. This is the month. This is when more inventory traditionally comes on the market most years. Just not seeing that

New listings 21 – thats a very small number

New Pendings of 32 – plenty of demand. This has been around the weekly number every week for the last 4 motnhs. Remarkably consistent

Thats a -11 for the week.

Closed sales at 36 –

Price reductions at 2

Total houses for sale 73 with median of $1.85M. Iventory is up a bit in the face of less new listings and consistent demand. Id have to dig deepeer but suspect we are seeing a higher than usual fall out rate but the houses go right back into escrow. Inventory is still abysmal. While there are a handful lower priced homes the market starts around $1.25M for all but the smallest homes or those with condo ownership/zero lot lines. I also think there are a whole bunch still negotiating multiple offeres received over the weekend. I suspect prohoff is in that category. I just see a lot still active that I know have offers on them.

30% appreciation year over year is pretty much in the tank and Im seeing a bunch showing closer to 40%. I cant wait for my new neighbors. Old ones sucked

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=sdrealtor]30% appreciation year over year is pretty much in the tank and Im seeing a bunch showing closer to 40%.[/quote]

So my question is how much more appreciation before NCC is not cheaper than Silicon Valley and nice LA neighborhoods? Another 10%? 20% more? Even more than that?

[sdrealtor]

Data point. About two years ago client sold 3/2 1/2 2200 sf rancher on 1/4 acre in Silly Valley for $3.3m. They had been in it about 35 years. At the time a house like that would have been around 850-900 here in Carlsbad. Today it would be 1.4ish here. Just checked and Zillow has their old house at $3.7 m. They spent less than half of their proceeds for home 50 years newer, nearly twice the size, on a similar size lot backing to a canyon with panoramic ocean views. That was pretty appealing

That says lots of headroom is possible. Who knows how much of that we’ll actually get?

[DaCounselor]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=sdrealtor]30% appreciation year over year is pretty much in the tank and Im seeing a bunch showing closer to 40%.[/quote]

So my question is how much more appreciation before NCC is not cheaper than Silicon Valley and nice LA neighborhoods? Another 10%? 20% more? Even more than that?[/quote]

I’m no expert but I’d ballpark 100% as to SV, aka current prices in NCC are about 1/2 of comps in SV area. From what I have looked at and what my friends in Sunnyvale and Mountain View say. FWIW which may not be much.

More interesting to me is that the price spiking (generally) is not only a NCC thing, SD thing or CA thing but is national and occurring in many many metro areas at some level and also internationally in many places. This is not an importing of SV refugee issue, something much bigger is going on.

[sdrealtor]

Agree it is something larger but just the same it seems like faster rate and with higher prices much bigger dollar increases. I think its both macroeconomics and shifts in who lives here.

I think people spent a year in lockdown and the upper half did very well saving tons of money. The hospitaility workers for example got crushed but they ar emore typically rfenters due to mobility and affordability. After spending a year at home, people want nice homes. I know many people who even with things getting much better re covid still plan to spend much more time at home.

Also there are plenty of places that arent seeing this boom. An example is where I grew up back east. Median HH income is 10% higher than 92009, schools on par or better but prices are maybe 30% of what they are here. Whatever is going on everywhere is more a macro trend. What is going on here is a fundamental shift of what this place is and who lives here.

[sdrealtor]

Im gonna make an early call with less than full confidence. Last year in late April I noticed a slight shift of the market coming back and called that. I told my Title Insurance rep and she thought I was nuts but I was seeing green shoots and they kept growing. Typically the market slows down considerably come early june. Last year it never stopped and has kept roaring straight through.

Pouring over data as I do, I can just feel a slight slowdown starting. Its not a reversal or anything close, its more a restoration of the secular cycles we have always seen. We arent getting much inventory but we are slightly building inventory levels. I could be wrong and I’ll update as I follow this but right now I get a sense July and August perhaps even June will be a little more bearable for buyers. If you are out beating the bushes, hang in there. Gonna follow this to see where it goes the next several weeks

[sdrealtor]

Last week I saw a slight cool down. This week the polar opposite. What happened in Mira Mesa did not happen here. The opposite happened.

New listings 19 – thats a very small number

New Pendings of 41 – plenty of demand to feed off the higher inventory last week

Thats a -22 for the week.

Closed sales at 34 –

Price reductions at 2

Total houses for sale 49 with median of $1.925M. It was 73 this time last week

Last week may have been an anomaly. Inventory dropped way down this week. This is when it should be building. I see a house close for $3M plus almost everyday. Just 3 years ago it was nearly impossible to sell one for over $2M.

Here is some more data in these 3 zips (92009, 92011, 92024).

May 2020
61 SFR’s closed
median price of $1.25M

May 2021 to date
91 SFR’s have already closed
median of $1.64M

The last week is the busiest of the month. There are 31 houses still in escrow that went under contract prior to May 1st. A bunch of these should close this week. We could end up with almost twice as many closed sales this May as last year. Of course some of that was due to COVID lock down in 2020 but notable that prices were not really impacted by the shut down. I sold two houses that closed last May. Both closed for record prices.

The median for May is already up 31% here.

For comparison I looked at MM also.

May 2020
22 closed SFR’s
Median of $683K

May 2021
29 closed SFR’s thus far with 8 under contract prior to May 1st which could close this week
Median 810K

Should end up with sales up about 50% higher volume and prices up around 19% y-o-y.

Shows how hyper local RE can be

[sdrealtor]

I’ll add Carmel Valley also

May 2020
29 closed SFR’s
Median of $1.51M

May 2021
35 closed SFR’s thus far with 22 under contract prior to May 1st which could close this week
Median of $1.81M

Carmel Valley is clearly a higher priced market and always has been. There are still a whole bunch that could close this week and pull that median up but as it stands it is looking like 20% y-o-y.

The price action up here is substantially faster this year. Id guess it is because location close to work is less important now. But more importantly our housing stock up here is newer with bigger homes and bigger lots that appeal more to refugees from the North. Just a guess but id bet a nice dinner on that if there was some way to prove it.

Every week that passes it seems like there is more of a fundamental shift going on up here. Im not gonna post all the numbers but 92127 (Del Sur/4S) is seeing almost as strong appreciation (27%) as NCC. There too the housing stock is newer with bigger homes though lot sizes are more similar to CV.

I have no idea where this going to end

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’ll add Carmel Valley also

May 2020
29 closed SFR’s
Median of $1.51M

May 2021
35 closed SFR’s thus far with 22 under contract prior to May 1st which could close this week
Median of $1.81M

Carmel Valley is clearly a higher priced market and always has been. There are still a whole bunch that could close this week and pull that median up but as it stands it is looking like 20% y-o-y.

The price action up here is substantially faster this year. Id guess it is because location close to work is less important now. But more importantly our housing stock up here is newer with bigger homes and bigger lots that appeal more to refugees from the North. Just a guess but id bet a nice dinner on that if there was some way to prove it.

Every week that passes it seems like there is more of a fundamental shift going on up here. Im not gonna post all the numbers but 92127 (Del Sur/4S) is seeing almost as strong appreciation (27%) as NCC. There too the housing stock is newer with bigger homes though lot sizes are more similar to CV.

I have no idea where this going to end[/quote]

Can’t believe houses on my old street sold for 1.8 and 1.9m respectively. That’s more than 2x from my purchase that was close to peek before the Great Recession.

My neighbor who bought the house as a short sales scored big time shortly after the Great Recession from my then ahole neighbor that leveraged up the ying yang scored bigtime with a $880k purchase price. I’m happy for her. Very nice lady who owns her own biotech company.

I wish the insanity would stop. I’d rather have the ability to purchase more rentals than to see my equity go up, though I’m not complaining about it.

So is the lesson to learn. Hold real estate for the long term and there’s lesson of a chance to get burned??? And if you leveraged up the ying yang, can’t make payments…well then that’s on you….???

Kinda funny and sad at the same time that for as expensive as I thought it was back then to buy my SFH, it’s still less (at least in nominal terms)than how much one of my friends just sold their 3/3 townhome in Crest Del Mar 92130 for more, lol.

[sdrealtor]

I wish it would stop also and expect it to cool down/level off one rates rise more. Prices could fall a bit but not dramatically because long term owners are protected by low rate fixed mortgages. They’ll just sit and wait for better times as a whole. Of course some always need to sell and things could pull back 10-15% next downturn but who knows when that is coming.

The answer is to hold RE here long term and let the passage of time do the heavy lifting to create generational wealth. I know an older Mexican woman up here. Her long deceased husband felt that way and bought as much as he could. She owns prime real estate through out Encinitas including a restaurant locals think is a drug front because it’s rarely open. It’s free and clear with minimal taxes on it.

Imagine how smart people that bought small houses 40- 50 years ago in Cupertino look;)

[flyer]

Totally agree buying and holding over time is a great strategy. Cycles will always come and go, but this one is particularly interesting. Schiller, in his latest prognostications, seems to think there will be some pain involved if/when there is a correction.

That said, guess we’re losing another San Diegan to less taxing climes. Heard Mickelson is moving to Jupiter when his youngest graduates from high school. Our golfing families have crossed paths for many years, and it’s been great to watch his career–especially that win last Sunday.

[Coronita]

[quote=flyer]Totally agree buying and holding over time is a great strategy. Cycles will always come and go, but this one is particularly interesting. Schiller, in his latest prognostications, seems to think there will be some pain involved if/when there is a correction.

That said, guess we’re losing another San Diegan to less taxing climes. Heard Mickelson is moving to Jupiter when his youngest graduates from high school. Our golfing families have crossed paths for many years, and it’s been great to watch his career–especially that win last Sunday.[/quote]

we don’t give a shit. we enjoy talking about real estate that built on our own efforts, not our parents.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Coronita][quote=flyer]Totally agree buying and holding over time is a great strategy. Cycles will always come and go, but this one is particularly interesting. Schiller, in his latest prognostications, seems to think there will be some pain involved if/when there is a correction.

That said, guess we’re losing another San Diegan to less taxing climes. Heard Mickelson is moving to Jupiter when his youngest graduates from high school. Our golfing families have crossed paths for many years, and it’s been great to watch his career–especially that win last Sunday.[/quote]

we don’t give a shit. we enjoy talking about real estate that built on our own efforts, not our parents.[/quote]

But what will our kids talk about? LOL

And those 5% down loans are real at 3%. Many of them offer low down with low fixed rate for 5 years that adjusts once every 5 years. I think the cap is 0.5% every 5 years so would still be 3.5ish% years 6-10 if they are still there. It has been a good entry for many first time buyers with very low rates that are guaranteed to stay that way for 10 years if not longer.

A family member used one of those loans 3 years ago albeit with 20% down. I think it was around 3.375% at the time which was much lower than the 30 year. At the time she thought she would only be there through her daughters high school graduation this year. I recently helped her through a refinance into a 2.625% 30 year fixed. She’s solid for life now

Oh and to tie into flyers humble brag. That daughter used to go to dance class with Phil’s youngest. I met him him several times. Nice guy and I undestand the move to Jupiter. Many of my friends and their parents live there. The golf is much better there

[scaredyclassic]

my kid saw phil mickelson at an IN N Out in temecula. he was very recognized and signing autographs. I guess phil likes in n out. apparently money buys better real estate but not better burgers

[sdrealtor]

He flies his private jet in and out of Palomar Airport. He’s a pilot. Ran into him a few years ago late night on a Sunday after a tournament elsewhere. He was looking for a late night burrito. Money cant buy a burrito at an already closed divey mexican joint either

And the plan has been in the works a long time. Many of the top golfers live there including Tiger, Jack, Brooks, Ricky and more

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/20200117/phil-mickelson-will-become-tiger-woodsrsquo-neighbor-on-jupiter-island

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]I wish it would stop also and expect it to cool down/level off one rates rise more. Prices could fall a bit but not dramatically because long term owners are protected by low rate fixed mortgages. They’ll just sit and wait for better times as a whole. Of course some always need to sell and things could pull back 10-15% next downturn but who knows when that is coming.

The answer is to hold RE here long term and let the passage of time do the heavy lifting to create generational wealth. I know an older Mexican woman up here. Her long deceased husband felt that way and bought as much as he could. She owns prime real estate through out Encinitas including a restaurant locals think is a drug front because it’s rarely open. It’s free and clear with minimal taxes on it.

Imagine how smart people that bought small houses 40- 50 years ago in Cupertino look;)[/quote]

Is that the person you were saying on Nextdoor that the North County Karens were all suspicious about?

Maybe questionable financing is coming back too. I just got off the phone with a really weird situation. Friend of a friend wanted someone to help cosign a loan to buy a house. I was like does he even know what cosigning means. How could he ask anyone who he barely knows if they could “simply cosign a loan” totally clueless.

Well apparently person wants to buy a $680k condo, got a loan from a credit union that requires only 5% down, and supposedly at 3% but requires someone to cosign…Weird. I mean no way in hell I would do it, but it made me wonder, are banks repeating the same mistakes again. This person there is no way they should be buying a home. Can’t even balance a checkbook. I think the loan terms are suspicious. I don’t think that’s accurate, definitely not for something with 5% down and fixed rate… anyway…

[sdrealtor]

More of the same

New listings 23 – thats not a pick up. Schools almost out and we usually see a bunch waiting for that

New Pendings of 32 – plenty of demand to feed off the higher inventory last week. 3 day weekend slows down negotiations so I expect a bunch more in next 24 hours

Thats a -9 for the week.

Closed sales at 36 –

Price reductions at 4

Total houses for sale 57 with median of $2M. More than last week but should drop down in next 24 hours. Will try to check tomorrow.

Already up to 111 closed sales in 3 zips for May 2021 and will get more once late reporters are marked closed. Volume will be double last years artifically low pandemic sales count.

[sdrealtor]

Was busy at a charity event yesterday but ran the numbers when I got back last night.

New listings 19 – dropped down to lowest level in a while. Hopefully after graduation we get a little more

New Pendings of 32 – plenty of demand

Thats a -13 for the week.

Closed sales at 32 –

Price reductions at 3

Total houses for sale 54 with median of $1.985M. Dropped and we got less new inventory. This is far from over

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Last weeks numbers I lost were on trend but starting to see a seasonal trend finally appear. Peak market here is always Feb through May but sellers think its in June. We typically get a surge in new listings once school lets out and the buyer pool has already thinned as people start vacationing and shifting to summer fun.

New listings 30 – here come the late listers

New Pendings of 25 – a little less demand as buyer attention starts shifting elsewhere so no surprise

Thats a +5 for the week. First time weve seen more new listings then pendings since mid Feb.

Closed sales at 24 –

Price reductions at 3

Total houses for sale 69 with median of $1.795M.

Something to watch next several weeks. More sellers come out after school is out and buyer demand tends to drop this time of year due to the season. Inventory has and will build a little. There will be more entry to mid range homes available than we have had in a while. Will that get buyers to come back into the game? I’ll be watching

As an aside I checked last 10 sales in my hood. Average down payment is 57%.

[sdrealtor]

First $2M sale closed in my hood and another should be right behind it. Thats something I never predicted. When I bought my house 22 years ago, I figured when my youngest graduated high school it would be nice if it got close to $1M and here we are far beyond that. Just bonkers

[sdrealtor]

Update time. market is hitting seasonal slowdown. Its a little better for buyer but not really. Instead of battling with 10 to 20 strong buyers you now battle with 3 to 5 strong buyers on the good ones. Peak frenzy is past and sellers who push too hard are more likely to sit. For now I expect prices to hold but the big gains are past for the rest of the year IMO.

New listings 24 – the big surge was last week right after school let out. Should return back to average listing counts

New Pendings of 34 – less competition but still plenty of demand for well priced nice homes

Thats a -10 for the week. Back to negative numbers.

Closed sales at 31 – The eye popping closings will continue rolling in for another few weeks but peak appreciation should be in the past for this year. Prices should roughly hold but in a couple months everyone will normalize to them it will no longer be such a novelty

Price reductions at 3

Total houses for sale 68 with median of $1.973M

Inventory level pretty flat but should start building slowly the next 2 or 3 months. Im hoping for a less frenetic but orderly market the next few months up here.

We now have two sales in the hood of $2M or more. I never would have predicted that. Those homeowners will be paying as much in taxes each year as I pay for principal, interest, taxes and insurance. Easily the best thing ive done in my life was buying a house here and holding on for the ride.

DVR alert! Tonight on Househunters on HGTV at 7 pm the episode will be based upon house a bought here in the hood. It was purchased in early January and is now looking like a great deal. Easily worth another $300 to 400K and maybe more.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. See last weeks narrative. thats what is happening.

New listings 22 – back to average listing counts as expected

New Pendings of 23 – peak frenzy and bidding wars seem to be past. Seeing some homes last more than a week that wouldnt have a month ago

Thats a -1 for the week. Getting back into balance.

Closed sales at 27 –

Price reductions at 6. Starting to see overpriced listings reduce. Some overshot their expectations and could pay for it by getting less with market settling down.

Total houses for sale 74 with median of $1.887M

Inventory building slowly as expected. Market seems to be getting more orderly. Still plenty of buyers but as inventory builds buyers get less motivated hoping for much lower prices. Advice to buyers, be picky for long term homes, could get easier and better in Fall but get something locked up by end of Novemeber. Next Spring could be crazy again

[sdrealtor]

Update time.

New listings 25 – average listing counts as expected

New Pendings of 25 – back into balance

Thats a flat for the week. Getting back into balance.

Closed sales at 30 –

Price reductions at 11. Greedy folks pushing the market got cut off at the knees

Total houses for sale 77 with median of $1.95M

Virtually every home sells above asking. Its as if the list price is a reserve price now. Just saw a house listed at $7.9M close. It went for $8M. Thats over asking. Multiple buyers across all price ranges for the good ones.

The fun continues

Footnote. As home sales are recorded and buyer names public record I contniue researching where they are moving from. The big dollar sales continue to come mostly from elsewhere especially up north

[sdrealtor]

Update time.

New listings 29 – average listing counts as expected

New Pendings of 31 – back into balance

Thats -2. Market seems more in balance.

Closed sales at 35 –

Price reductions at 2.

Total houses for sale 80 with median of $1.99M. Market continues to move towards more balance. Closings still consistently coming in above asking and often well above asking but these were put togther a month or more ago. Will be interesting to see what happens with closings in next several weeks

Cheapest detached home is 1400 sq ft 2 story detached condo for $1.115M

[sdrealtor]

Update time.

New listings 21 – lowest in a few weeks

New Pendings of 28 – still tilted toward sellers

Thats -5.

Closed sales at 17 –

Price reductions at 5.

Total houses for sale 73 with median of $2.1M. Down from last week but market continues to move towards more balance but no signs of weakness whatsoever.

[sdrealtor]

Update time.

New listings 23 – steady

New Pendings of 18 – bit of a slow down. Schools start in 2 weeks and people squeezing in last vacations. Should be quiet for a couple more weeks

Thats +5.

Closed sales at 16 –

Price reductions at 2.

Total houses for sale 91 with median of $1.995M. Inventory building a little again and high point for the year which is typical around now. Should grow for a few weeks than begin tapering off if history holds. Something to watch

[sdrealtor]

Update time.

New listings 23 – steady

New Pendings of 34 – bit of a surprise in what is traditionally a very slow time of year. Market continues to stride along

Thats -11!

Closed sales at 24 –

Price reductions at 9 – If you shot to high with your initial asking price its obvious now

Total houses for sale 86 with median of $1.995M. Inventory dipped back down. Market is very solid. The high end market here continues to astound with closings above $2M pretty much a daily occurence. What was once a very small niche is quickly being normalized

[sdrealtor]

Sorry for delay, just back from quick getaway.

New listings 17 – among the lowest counts this year

New Pendings of 28 – butr demand keeps chugging along

Thats -11!

Closed sales at 25 –

Price reductions at 6 – If you shot to high with your initial asking price its obvious now

Total houses for sale 64 with median of $1.965M.

Noticed a bunch of homes that had been on market a while going into escrow. Sometimes the only thing that will get sellers to the price price is sitting on the market for a bit.

This has been a market this year where most homes sell in the first week +/- a few days. In the last 10 days, 36 homes sold that had been on the market for 10 days or more which is an amazing market clearning development. These sellers either adjusted expectations or the market came up to meet them. Even the 1 story on Fulvia went pending this week. Im gonna follow these to see if they took less than asking or the market came up to meet their price. Will know in 4 to 6 weeks and will post results.

Inventory dropped way down

[sdrealtor]

Last 4 closed sales in the hood. Two from Bay Area, One from LA and one from OC. The great migration South continues

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Last 4 closed sales in the hood. Two from Bay Area, One from LA and one from OC. The great migration South continues[/quote]
This also explain crazy rent increases. Thank you out of towners.

[flyer]

Have never seen a market like this in all of our years in real estate. Wherever they’re coming from–gotta love ’em. Even with the downturns over the years, buy-and-hold has definitely proven to be a smart play.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 19 – slow but steady flow though seems skewed to high end

New Pendings of 31 – demand keeps chugging along

Thats -13!

Closed sales at 28 –

Price reductions at 4 – If you shot to high with your initial asking price its obvious now

Total houses for sale 68 with median of $1.995M.

It just struck me that a median around $2M means that half the houses on the market are listed for $2M+. Thats crazy town. Lowest priced SFR is now $1.1M. While we could see sub $1M sales on some homes the market under $1M is essentially gone now

Still seeing price records fall though frenzy has slowed. Stopped by an open in my hood last week and it was very busy with nearly all potential buyers from up north.

If you told me that SD County could increase 20% next year I d say no way. If you told me that NCC would Id say, sure seems possible. So much money seems to flowing in here.

Still too early to check in on the long market time escrows to see if price came to them or they lowered expectations.

[sdrealtor]

I’ll look but those were always kinda wonky floor plans

[sdrealtor]

Lol funny sitting in the middle of the family room. House needs more than a simple polectomy

[sdrealtor]

Its pending

[sdrealtor]

New listings 14 – slow but steady flow though seems skewed to high end

New Pendings of 26 – demand keeps chugging along

Thats -12!

Closed sales at 20 –

Price reductions at 5 – If you shot to high with your initial asking price its obvious now

Total houses for sale 66 with median of $2.3M.

Inventory fell slightly but new listings falling and steady demand so inventory likely to continue falling for the rest of the year

[sdrealtor]

New listings 9 – very low number

New Pendings of 26 – demand keeps chugging along

Thats -17!

Closed sales at 19 –

Price reductions at 2 – If you shot to high with your initial asking price its obvious now but with invetory so low I guess they figure why bother

Total houses for sale 59 with median of $2.3M.

This week last year we got 31 new listings and 37 sales with 87 on the market. This year only 9 new listings with demand still strong. Inventory is 30% lower and look what happened last Spring.

Prices feel stretched already but with this kind of imbalance I dont see how we get less than 10% appreciation up here next year. Making that call now

[XBoxBoy]

sdrealtor, what’s up with your math… Every week you report the number of houses for sale, and you also report the change.

Previously August 19 you reported 64 houses for sale, and then August 25 you reported 68 houses with a change of -13 but going from 64 to 68 isn’t -13, but +4. August 31 66 houses with a -12 (which should have been -2) Sept 8 you report 59 for sale, with -17 (which should be -7)

If nothing else I’ll give you that you’ve been consistently wrong every week.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry but they are not the same thing. I report how many more homes sell than hit the market but that isnt always reflected in homes on the market on a 1:1 basis. Two reasons are houses fall out of escrow (thats a +1) and houses get taken off the market (thats a -1). There are more reasons and this is not a perfect data set. Real estate data is self reported by thousands of realtors and every house/situation is different. Its why i always advise looking at all real estate data from askew.

It was never intended to be a hard and fast measure but multple measures to understand the direction and velocity of the action in the market. Does that make sense?

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=sdrealtor]It was never intended to be a hard and fast measure but multple measures to understand the direction and velocity of the action in the market. Does that make sense?[/quote]

Umm… not really. If you want to show the direction and velocity of the action in the market, new listings minus pendings isn’t a valid way to do that. Number of active listings this week minus number of active listings last week is the stat you’re looking for.

That being said, don’t take me wrong. I’ve enjoyed following this thread and appreciate the work you’ve put into.

[sdrealtor]

You’d think so but its not really. The real estate market is more than a bit funky so its best to track it multiple ways. Years ago I just tracked it that way and it did sync up with what was going on so i switched. With that said there is no perfect way, far from it. For me the key to to pick a couple and look at them consistently over time to get a feel for whats going on

As it is I need to make judgement calls along the way. Some examples, I remove new construction, twin homes that sometimes are listed as SFR, very small unliveable homes that are really land, homes that were sold off market and never really on the open market and a couple more categories. Its not perfect but its the best and I beleive most accurate way to do it.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 23 – back up to me typical levels

New Pendings of 24 – demand keeps chugging along

Thats -1!

Closed sales at 29 –

Price reductions at 6 -Some still struggling to get it right

Total houses for sale 61 with median of $2.3M.

Looking at closings most are closing at or around asking now. Still a few bidding wars but nothing like earlier this year. Looking like we will muddle through the rest of the year but watch out come Spring as the the spring will be getting wound tight the next few months

[sdrealtor]

New listings 17 – back up to me typical levels

New Pendings of 26 – demand keeps chugging along

Thats -9!

Closed sales at 14 –

Price reductions at 6 -Some still struggling to get it right

Total houses for sale 60 with median of $2.3M. More than 1/3rd are very high priced ($3M+). The spring winds tighter

[sdrealtor]

New listings 11 – this is when new listings should typically fall off substantially

New Pendings of 22 – demand keeps chugging along

Thats -11

Closed sales at 21 –

Price reductions at 3

Total houses for sale 57 with median of $2.65M. The median list price is way up suggesting the low end inventory is thinner than ever.

I dug a bit deeper on that looking at the under $2M market. As of today there are 20 actives and 80 pendings. In a typical market we see 2 to 3 active for every pending. Today we have 4 pendings for every active. This feels like a powder keg

[sdrealtor]

New listings 19 – usually a few decent weeks and then by late Oct the big annual drop off

New Pendings of 28 – demand keeps chugging along

Thats -9

Closed sales at 24 –

Price reductions at 7

Total houses for sale 59 with median of $2.5M.

One thing I see quite a bit more of is old beach area properties hitting the marketing that have been owned for many decades. Prices are so high now some oldtimers are cashing out at a rate I havent seen the last 20 years. Interesting to watch and some really good parcels of land changing hands

10% appreciation seems in the bag this year and most are predicting closer to 20%

[sdduuuude]

This is all nice and all – but Rich makes charts for us. 🙂

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdduuuude]This is all nice and all – but Rich makes charts for us. :)[/quote]

I’ve got the raw data and it’s linked to graphs. I’m just not so good at posting them 🙂

[sdrealtor]

Fulvia house just closed 70% above the 2019 new purchase price

[sdrealtor]

New listings 14 – big annual drop off is aorund the corner

New Pendings of 22 – demand keeps chugging along but few things to buy

Thats -8

Closed sales at 23 – still seeing things close 6 figures over asking but fewer of them than during peak frenzy a few months ago

Price reductions at 2

Total houses for sale 49 with median of $2.65M

This time last year there was 99 for sale. Inventory is half what it was. Keep packing the powder the keg

[sdrealtor]

New listings 15

New Pendings of 19 – less and less to buy

Thats -4

Closed sales at 31 –

Price reductions at 2

Total houses for sale 49 with median of $2.4M

Almost sleepy time

[sdrealtor]

New listings 17

New Pendings of 14 – less and less to buy

Thats +3

Closed sales at 23 –

Price reductions at 5 (all very high priced homes)

Total houses for sale 55 with median of $2.5M

Should slow down here also if seasonal patterns hold.

Market here for a house is now $1M if not $1.2M. How did we get here?

[sdrealtor]

New listings 11 – steady dropping into holidays

New Pendings of 23 – buyers still very active

Thats -12

Closed sales at 23 –

Price reductions at 5 (all very high priced homes)

Total houses for sale 54 with median of $2.375M

Seasonal pattern of listing volume seems to be settling in while no let up in buyers. The spring winds tighter

[sdrealtor]

New listings 11 – steady dropping into holidays

New Pendings of 21 – buyers still very active

Thats -10

Closed sales at 14 –

Price reductions at 2 (all very high priced homes)

Total houses for sale 48 with median of $2.29M

I now have inventory count going back a year. This time last year inventory was very low. Now its down almost 50% from last year. The market below $1M is essentially gone and even below $1.25M its neglible. Regardless of what any national media may be saying and what is happening else where we are heading int next year in a very strong market even unprecendentedly strong

[sdrealtor]

New listings 15 – steady dropping into holidays

New Pendings of 23 – buyers still very active

Thats -8

Closed sales at 20 –

Price reductions at 0

Total houses for sale 47 with median of $2.5M

I got my hands on a report with lots of data for SD County.

They looked at appreciation by size of home. Here are the top cities for each 1-4

1700 SQ FT House – Encinitas, Carmel Valley, Scripps, PQ
2500 sq ft house – 4S/RB, Carlsbad, Poway, PQ
3500 sq ft house – PQ, Encinitas, Scripps, Carlsbad

Pretty much all in San Dieguito and Poway school districts. Thats where the action was this year

[sdrealtor]

Wanted to get this one in early before holiday shutdown also. We expect the market to be mostly shut down by now. Homes listed now are more than likely vacant. Who would want to list their home over the holidays if they didnt have to? Why not wait for the early Spring rush to begin at this point. Lets see what we got

New listings 10 – steady dropping into holidays

New Pendings of 25 – buyers still very active

Thats -15

Closed sales at 27 –

Price reductions at 1

Total houses for sale 36 with median of $2.0M

This time last year inventory was historically low at 86. We are in unchartered territory. Looking through the inventory I see a bunch that will see in the next few weeks. Most of the new listings are vacant and often long term rentals or estate/probate sales. There are some high priced fishing expeditions going on. There are 5 priced at $5M+ but we had two in that range go pending this week. Everything is selling in every price range.

Verdict: Will see double digit pendings the next couple weeks clearing out whats left and sellable but mostly shut down here. This is a big market that should open the year barren of inventory. Like walking into a near empty Costco. I hope sellers come out to meet the demand next year and those that do should have a solid plan in place as to where they going next. Double digit appreciation in the bag next year

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 – steady dropping into holidays

New Pendings of 14 – buyers still very active

Thats -8

Closed sales at 10 –

Price reductions at 0

Total houses for sale 33 with median of $2.35M

This time last year inventory was 84 so a 60% decline from what was a historically low inventory last year. As expected double digit pendings but not by much as there isnt all that much to buy. There are about 15-20 of those that are very high end, dramatically overpriced or have issues that make them difficult to sell. Some may give up and would not be surprised to see inventory bottom out around 20 by year end but that would take some doing.

Dont expect much to report next month

[sdrealtor]

No better here

New listings 10 – six of those went into escrow after a day or two

New Pendings of 15 – counselors are standing by

Thats -5

Closed sales at 31 –

Price reductions at 5 – just silly to reduce the overpriced home you’ve sat on for months now. Mights as well stick to your price and wait until Spring

Total houses for sale 28 with median of $2.675M. This time last year we had 79

[sdrealtor]

New listings 7 – mostly tenant occupied or prior rental

New Pendings of 12 –

Thats -5

Closed sales at 21 –

Price reductions at 1 –

Total houses for sale 31 with median of $2.295M.

Much of the new inventorty this week is vacant or tenant occupied which makes ense. If your lease ended or will soon and you want to sell best to get it on the market rather than leaving it empty or renting it for an other year. If you want out no time like the present

Looking at the rest nearly all is challenging to sell due to price point , being overpriced or having some other issue that makes it challenging

[sdrealtor]

New listings 5 – mostly tenant occupied or prior rental

New Pendings of 16 –

Thats -11

Closed sales at 11 –

Price reductions at 0 –

Total houses for sale 24 with median of $2.512M.

Another very large market albeit mostly a luxury market now. These 3 zips are home to nearly 140K residents. This time last year there were 54. Most of what is left on the market is very high end $3M+ or has some issue making the sale difficult if not impossible. Virtually nothing for sale here either

[sdrealtor]

Last one of the year as of Tuesday

New listings 2 – mostly tenant occupied or prior rental

New Pendings of 5 –

Thats -3

Closed sales at 6 –

Price reductions at 0 –

Total houses for sale 18 with median of $2.9M.

We end the year with the shelves empty. Everything on the market is well over $3M or if less than that horribly overpriced. Even so I just rechecked and we are down to 14 with median of $3.25M. Looking forward to a fresh start to see what next year brings but dont expect much relief. By mid Jan we should start seeing things trickling on

[sdrealtor]

Preseason begins

New listings 6 – half we listed last year and taken off before holidays

New Pendings of 12 –

Thats -6

Closed sales at 18 –

Price reductions at 0 –

Total houses for sale 18 with median of $2.77M.

Still early but Im looking to see how much higher sellers are willing to test the market. TBD

[sdrealtor]

First week of the season. Im gonna make one slight change going forward. Next to the listings and pendings each week I will include the figure from last year. That will start now for this thread.

New listings 6 (18) – oh boy not a good start and 2 new lsitings were 2BR detached zero lot line condos not really true SFR’s

New Pendings of 5 (15) – cant sell what isnt there

Thats +1

Closed sales at 13 –

Price reductions at 0 –

Total houses for sale 21 with median of $2.575M.

This is not a good start. Really need to get this market going. It would be nice to see 15-20 new listings per week if not more

[sdrealtor]

New listings 17 (14) – encouraging start to see new listings back up

New Pendings of 13 (22) – not much to buy and will take a little more time to catch up with last year

Thats +4

Closed sales at 10 –

Price reductions at 0 –

Total houses for sale 29 with median of $2.2M.

In some ways its encouraging to see more new listings but most are high end, very small or pushing price. Just looked for 4/3 2400 sq ft + up to 1.75M in all 4 Carlsbad zips or 92078. Based upon running similar a couple days back knew I could count em on 1 hand. I still have all my fingers. Nothing

Need the tide to come in

[sdrealtor]

No one wants to move away from here either

New listings 10 (14) – back down we go

New Pendings of 23 (23) – double digit offers and prices 10% or more above asking are the general rule

Thats -13

Closed sales at 10 –

Price reductions at 0 –

Total houses for sale 21 with median of $2.7M.

Same time last year we had 50 sfr’s. Inventory is down 60% Y-O-Y. We thought it was incredibly low last year.

Tide is going out not coming in for now

[sdrealtor]

Out here looking for homes for a few clients and one thing struck me. Looking at inventory volume only tells half the story up here. I’ve been watching this micro market and tracking it very closely for 25 years now. In the past nearly all the listings were typical middle of the road homes for the area. Very rarely did one see prime coastal properties hit the market to any degree. Was always one here, one there. Now when I watch the flow it seems like half the new listings and often more are what I’d consider in the top 1/3. That does two things. It means it’s even tougher for the entry and average buyer around here. It also means the median up here is being driven to a bigger extent by the mix of the inventory. Looking just at how many homes are on the market does not show how thin it is. As an example my neighborhood of over 1,000 traditionally had 10-20 homes on the market at all times until the last few years. It’s been 3 months since one hit the market. I know there have gotta be some coming but this is a destination neighborhood that buyers watch and wait to get into. Those first listings are gonna get overwhelmed with interest. Will report once it happens

[sdrealtor]

More of the same if not worse relative to last year

New listings 12 (21) – should be trending up but isnt

New Pendings of 16 (33) – could sell 5X easily if we had it

Thats -4

Closed sales at 13 –

Price reductions at 0 –

Total houses for sale 24 with median of $2.585M.

Inventory half what it was last year. This was the week one year ago it started getting better but not this year. Maybe next week

In my hood first house to be listed in 3 months is coming soon. Last sale of this model was 10 months ago. It was listed for $1.4 and sold for 1.6M. This one will be listed for $2.1M. Its not impossible that we’ll see it sell 50% higher than the one a year ago. One to watch

[sdrealtor]

Heading into the weekend. We have 5 new listings for resale SFR’s. Hopefully a surge coming soon. This is a trainwreck

[sdrealtor]

Getting worse

New listings 7 (17) – just keeps getting tighter

New Pendings of 12 (34) – could sell 5X easily if we had it

Thats -5

Closed sales at 10 –

Price reductions at 0 –

Total houses for sale 26 (42) with median of $2.585M.

Single family under $1M firmly in rear view mirror. Everything under $2M currently on the market is less than one week and will sell as soon as they can sort through offers. Maybe next week

[Escoguy]

[quote=sdrealtor]Getting worse

New listings 7 (17) – just keeps getting tighter

New Pendings of 12 (34) – could sell 5X easily if we had it

Thats -5

Closed sales at 10 –

Price reductions at 0 –

Total houses for sale 26 (42) with median of $2.585M.

Single family under $1M firmly in rear view mirror. Everything under $2M currently on the market is less than one week and will sell as soon as they can sort through offers. Maybe next week[/quote]

In Greater SD county, 3BR 2000 sf+ under 1.2M only 44right now. My guess is, they will all be gone in a week.

For 4BR, only 34 SFHs.

(lowest) 800K gets you on the edge of Camp Peldelton off 76 or down in Chula Vista.

[flyer]

Have never seen such a fantastic real estate run-up in my lifetime–but where things go from here is still a mystery, and the Russia situation may become a thing–or not. As always, probably best to be prepared on all fronts for whatever happens.

[sdrealtor]

This is not fantastic

[an]

[quote=flyer]Have never seen such a fantastic real estate run-up in my lifetime–but where things go from here is still a mystery, and the Russia situation may become a thing–or not. As always, probably best to be prepared on all fronts for whatever happens.[/quote]
Never? Not even in the 70s?

[flyer]

My parents were involved in real estate before I became involved, so I don’t recall any specifics, but I know they took advantage of some great opportunities over various decades. Still, the last several years have been pretty great for investors, too.

[sdrealtor]

About the same

New listings 12 (20) – running about half of last year

New Pendings of 18 (16) – multiple over asking buyers

Thats -6

Closed sales at 8 –

Total houses for sale 24 (52) with median of $2.4M ($1.8M)

So much demand with such limited inventory. Pretty much every sfr goes 10%+ above asking.

A few anecdotes from the streets. Finally got one. House listed at 1.9 was in escrow at 2.1 and fell out. I knew where some other recent comps were gonna be which supported much higher. My client got it for 2.2 and while we were signing there were other buyers trying to jump even higher. IN amonth or two this should like a deal.

A guy I know listed his house for 2.5M. I thought it was a low and would go quite a bit a higher. Friend of friend asked me about it. I told my friend to tell his friend it will go for $3M easy. It went for $3.5M. NO matter how mispriced it was someone paid $1M over asking. Never would have happened before

The median listing price was 1.8 last year and is 2.4 now. Thats the market.

Here’s one prediction. With the market as tough as it is lots of agents arent gonna make it. Younger agents will find other work and with soaring rents willmove in with friends. Old time agents will look at their homes worth $1 to $3M cash out and call it day retiring to the desert, AZ, TX, FLA etc with the proceeds. I think the thinning of the ranks will happen over the next two years. But yours truly is prepared for whatever comes and aint going anywhere:)

[flyer]

Since we’re not planning on selling anything at this point in time, it’s always interesting to hear what’s currently going on in the streets–and it’s amazing:) One downside is, it could become a challenge for younger generations who grew up here, and others who would like to buy.

Imo, San Diego and certain other locations will continue to be in high demand for the unparalleled quality of life they offer, so if and when the frenzy ends is still up for debate. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

[sdrealtor]

More of the same with market about half of what it was last year

New listings 12 (23) – running about half of last year

New Pendings of 19 (39) – multiple over asking buyers

Thats -7

Closed sales at 11 –

Total houses for sale 25 (49) with median of $2.35M ($1.99M)

Not as much overbidding on this weeks closings but may reflect the homes (more fixers then weve seen in a while). It looks like we are starting to get more of the bread and butter 4/3 2200 to 3000 sq ft homes than weve had in a while which should cause those prices to rise with bidding wars. It seems like yesterday those were 750 to 900. Now they are 1.4 to 2M up here

It seems like the market is competitive up into the 2.5 range and slows down some between 2.5 and 4M . There doesnt seem to be true relief from competition until you get to around $4M.

Side note, my client that is buying here will be putting his place up in OC on market mid March. Will be interesting to hear how it goes. Ill update once it does but suspect market there is much like here

[sdrealtor]

Still not enough inventory but starting to feel like we are gonna get an uptick soon, maybe this week

New listings 16 (17) – so there was a drop off this week last year also. Wonder if its a coincidence or something secular?

New Pendings of 25 (34) – still inventory constrained

Thats -9

Closed sales at 21 –

Total houses for sale 25 (42) with median of $2.35M ($2.33M)

Interesting that median is now pretty much the same year over year. Prices are definitely up quite a bit since then. It likely has more to do with the mix and more very high end homes selling then ever before. Last year in the first 10 weeks of the year we had 11 properties sell over $3M. This year its up to 16 so that market grew by 50%. In 2019 it was 2 houses and in 2020 it was 3. Prior to the pandemic that market barely existed here.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 18 (29) – last year we were putting up 20 to 30 a week through mid August. This year it looks like we’ll have to deal with about 30 to 40% less each week.

New Pendings of 19 (30) – inventory constrained

Thats -1

Closed sales at 22 –

Total houses for sale 31 (52) with median of $1.99M ($1.99M). A couple are down the street working through multiple offers

Inventory is down 40% since last year. Prices continue to march up with multiple offers on everything. My hovel will soon cross $2m on zillow. Never thought id ever see anything close to that. This is nuts

[sdrealtor]

New listings 19 (23) – highest count all year but still havent hit 20 yet. This time last year we had hit 30.

New Pendings of 25 (36) –

Thats -6

Closed sales at 18 –

Total houses for sale 29 (49) with median of $2.3M ($1.709M). Cheapest SFR is $1.285M and its actually a detached condo not a true SFR. Inventory still off about 40% as my hovel inches every closer

Every once in a while I see something that makes me stand up and take notice. This week a friend listed a beautiful property in Leucadia for $7M and it sold the first day. That means someone was waiting out there with $7M or more burning a hole in their pocket looking to buy their dream home. We never had buyers like that before. The world continues changing here faster and faster!

[sdrealtor]

Heading up to LA for a concert so early update. Id expect a few more to go pending in the next few hours.

New listings 17 (34) – still havent hit 20 yet

New Pendings of 25 (41) –

Thats -8

Closed sales at 21 –

Total houses for sale 27 (57) with median of $2.3M ($1.9M)

Here’s todays observation which relates to a conversation I had with a friend a few weeks ago and wrote about here. I asked a dear friend/client that retired here from Silly Valley a few years ago what a market looks like when prices get so high that incomes just cant support them like what happens up in the Bay Area and people buy with stock option money. His answer was the cost of everything goes up (Hello $70 haircuts) and people make do with smaller, more densely packed spaces (Condo is the life for me).

For that to happen we would need to have what I would consider a large scale SFR capitulation meaning folks who would typically buy an SFR would begin to shift en masse to attached homes and condos. My thought was thats gonna take some time thinking NCC buyers would head east to San Marcos and North toward Oside and Vista rather than spending close to or more than $1M for an attached home.

While I dont post it here weekly, I also track attached homes in 92009/92011 because I have a close family member whose interests are very dear to me.

This is what I saw this week when running the numbers. New listings were about double what they have been running. My first thought was uh-oh homeowners are starting to take the money and run and will soon blow past demand. Then I ran the pendings and they are more than triple what they have been running! While new listings are 30% above the prior high total this year, the pendings are double the prior high! These numbers scream large scale SFR Capitulation but its still early.

On top of that I saw this.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3026-Rancho-Del-Canon-92009/home/3855232

A twin home just closed for about $350K above asking. I dont think that was someone that came looking for a twin home but rather an SFR buyer that capitulated. And for it to get that high there has to be more than 2 or 3 capitulators. Its still early to call it a trend but this bears watching and following. The numbers to watch will be # of new attached listings to see if people are taking the money to run vis a vis # of attached pendings to see if SFR buyers are capitulating. I’ll keep y’all posted

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]Heading up to LA for a concert so early update. Id expect a few more to go pending in the next few hours.

New listings 17 (34) – still havent hit 20 yet

New Pendings of 25 (41) –

Thats -8

Closed sales at 21 –

Total houses for sale 27 (57) with median of $2.3M ($1.9M)

Here’s todays observation which relates to a conversation I had with a friend a few weeks ago and wrote about here. I asked a dear friend/client that retired here from Silly Valley a few years ago what a market looks like when prices get so high that incomes just cant support them like what happens up in the Bay Area and people buy with stock option money. His answer was the cost of everything goes up (Hello $70 haircuts) and people make do with smaller, more densely packed spaces (Condo is the life for me).

For that to happen we would need to have what I would consider a large scale SFR capitulation meaning folks who would typically buy an SFR would begin to shift en masse to attached homes and condos. My thought was thats gonna take some time thinking NCC buyers would head east to San Marcos and North toward Oside and Vista rather than spending close to or more than $1M for an attached home.

While I dont post it here weekly, I also track attached homes in 92009/92011 because I have a close family member whose interests are very dear to me.

This is what I saw this week when running the numbers. New listings were about double what they have been running. My first thought was uh-oh homeowners are starting to take the money and run and will soon blow past demand. Then I ran the pendings and they are more than triple what they have been running! While new listings are 30% above the prior high total this year, the pendings are double the prior high! These numbers scream large scale SFR Capitulation but its still early.

On top of that I saw this.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3026-Rancho-Del-Canon-92009/home/3855232

A twin home just closed for about $350K above asking. I dont think that was someone that came looking for a twin home but rather an SFR buyer that capitulated. And for it to get that high there has to be more than 2 or 3 capitulators. Its still early to call it a trend but this bears watching and following. The numbers to watch will be # of new attached listings to see if people are taking the money to run vis a vis # of attached pendings to see if SFR buyers are capitulating. I’ll keep y’all posted[/quote]

GOOAL!!!

[sdrealtor]

New listings 18 (19) – still havent hit 20 yet

New Pendings of 15 (37) – thats a good size drop from last week

Thats +3

Closed sales at 45 –

Total houses for sale 34 (55) with median of $2.17M ($1.995M)

The numbers are still much the same but Im starting to feel a slight change. Recent sales have come in 200 to 400K above asking and rather then listing a little low and letting the buyers bid things up, I get the sense the new listings are pushing a little harder than they should on price. That could slow things down a little bit which wouldnt be the worst thing. Something i’ll be watching.

The attached market in S Carlsbad is roaring in a way Ive not seen before. Listings dropped back but pendings still high. Nothing sits on the market more than a week or two anymore. More and more Im feeling the SFR capitulators at work here.

[sdrealtor]

Im feeling the winds of change here. Still to early to say for certain but balance seems it may have shifted abruptly for now.

New listings 29 (19) – we blew by 20 this week.

New Pendings of 19 (28) – increase from last week but thats a good size drop from last year. Could be tax season slow down but we should be seeing 30+ soon. We’ll know in a couple weeks for sure

Thats +10

Closed sales at 26 –

Total houses for sale 51 (61) with median of $2.35M ($1.995M)

The slight shift I felt last week followed through and increased. Saw a nice jump in new listings. A bunch of them at what appear to be even crazier unrealistic numbers then weve been seeing.

Its been almost 2 years since new listings were 10 or more than pendings. Inventory jumped up close to last year and should be above last year next week. If pendings dont pick up and listings stay at current level we will get back to a balanced market by the end of June.

I could be wrong but i’m gonna call this the week that the extreme sellers market shifted. Nothing indicates a crash or even decline but the insane party for sellers looks to be over. In two weeks we should know better after we see what happens next.

Looking at the lower priced attached market that still seems to be red hot for now. Will keep an eye out on that also

[matt]

I own a rental on this street in La costa oaks. At the end of the street are power lines. Yet this one sold for 3.1m (700k over asking). Insane.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7393-Sitio-Lima-92009/home/7488506?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=control&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet

[flyer]

We’re seeing the same with our rentals all over North County, and in coastal and slightly inland areas further south. Not selling, but it’s definitely tempting.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=matt]I own a rental on this street in La costa oaks. At the end of the street are power lines. Yet this one sold for 3.1m (700k over asking). Insane.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7393-Sitio-Lima-92009/home/7488506?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=control&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet%5B/quote%5D

While houses like that generally go about 2.5ish that one had a huge nearly 1/2 acre lot with pool and entertainers yard. That and views are what gets the extra 500K of juice

[limkotir]

[quote=matt]I own a rental on this street in La costa oaks. At the end of the street are power lines. Yet this one sold for 3.1m (700k over asking). Insane.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7393-Sitio-Lima-92009/home/7488506?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=control&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet%5B/quote%5D

This home is around 500 feet away from the power lines, so I think it wouldn’t affect its value too much; although some buyers may pause and back off. Insane large lot size!!

Having said that, in a much more normal market, all other variables being equal, how much would an exact house close to the power lines (say within 100 feet) be worth less, versus one that is not? 5%? 10%? 20%

Zillow and Redfin do not seem to “discount” the power line factor too much, so does that mean there will be less buyers / offers instead? Aka, just takes more time to sell that type of home.

[sdrealtor]

In a more typical market a house under not close to powerlines or backing to a busy street will discount 5 to 10%. A house this close would not but might take a few more buyers to see it to get a buyer that isn’t bothered looking at them down the street.

A lot that big can easily command a 10 to 20% premium in any market. After all most of what you are buying here is land value and more land is more value.

Zillow and Redfin valuations cannot account for things like powerlines with their algorithms. Perhaps someday they will but right now the answer is they dont. The only way they could is a house one or two away sold in the same situation in which the valuation of the subject house would impacted by that comp.

[matt]

This house has no views (below the main La costa oaks hill) and most of the lot is the back slope and not really usable. Power lines definitely visible and only about 5 houses away. 3.1M. Just saying.

[sdrealtor]

So here’s your comp. I’ve been in both and know em both very well

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7289-Calle-Conifera-92009/home/6581947?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=control&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet

This one still has 2006 Tuscan decor which is a dated look, lot under 10k but all usable and pretty much nothing in the backyard and no view

The one on your street is actually 8 houses away from power line and pretty much no impact that far. It’s been updated to have current look and even with slope about 15k of lot is flat and usable which is pretty rare in these parts. It has a pool/spa /swim up bar and lots of nice outdoor space. The updating inside and big yard with pool gets you the extra 500kish. Not saying it’s not a crazy price but it’s just how things have been going.

FWIW I have a client at top of neighborhood with big yard, pool, swim up bar and ocean view. He’s been asking and I’ve been saying conservatively he was over $3m. When that one closed I sent it to him and said welcome to $3m club no questions asked anymore

[matt]

Yep – he’s definitely in the 3m club. When I bought in 2010 I tried hard to close on a view home in the community but just couldn’t get one of those short sales to close. Ended up buying on Lima for 900k. Has been rented since.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=matt]Yep – he’s definitely in the 3m club. When I bought in 2010 I tried hard to close on a view home in the community but just couldn’t get one of those short sales to close. Ended up buying on Lima for 900k. Has been rented since.[/quote]

I have a friend on your street. Haven’t seen him in years though. Name is Vince

[limkotir]

Oh wow, thanks for the insight.

Judging by the participants’ Nextdoor neighborhoods they are indexed to, folks complaining are in zip 92130 Carmel Valley, but with folks chiming in from Mira Mesa and the even more affluent beach communities.

For CV, I suspect it gets that extra oomph of demand due to the upper middle class families that try to push their kids into the best schools as possible, especially among certain groups of minorities from the other side of the globe. Truth to be told, I think most “starting” families aren’t in position looking at CV as their SFH these days at current price point and 5% interest rate for 30Y fixed loan, for that, join the rest of us and look in 92126, 92123, and south bay and way northern county zips that are still closer to the $1M range!! It’s a feasting frenzy.

On a side note, few replies ago, we were talking about that gorgeous Carlsbad home 5 houses away from power lines. Take a look at the below SFH in CV, powerlines are behind the backyard (50 feet away from property line?) — Redfin calculated if this home is sold for $2M, the monthly payment at 5% 30Y fixed mortgage, HOA, insurance and Prop Taxes (I used 1.09%) is around a cool ~$10,500 a month.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/11244-Laurelcrest-Dr-92130/home/22651174

But will it sell for $2M, over and under? Place your bets!!!

[Coronita]

[quote=limkotir]Oh wow, thanks for the insight.

Judging by the participants’ Nextdoor neighborhoods they are indexed to, folks complaining are in zip 92130 Carmel Valley, but with folks chiming in from Mira Mesa and the even more affluent beach communities.

For CV, I suspect it gets that extra oomph of demand due to the upper middle class families that try to push their kids into the best schools as possible, especially among certain groups of minorities from the other side of the globe. Truth to be told, I think most “starting” families aren’t in position looking at CV as their SFH these days at current price point and 5% interest rate for 30Y fixed loan, for that, join the rest of us and look in 92126, 92123, and south bay and way northern county zips that are still closer to the $1M range!! It’s a feasting frenzy.

On a side note, few replies ago, we were talking about that gorgeous Carlsbad home 5 houses away from power lines. Take a look at the below SFH in CV, powerlines are behind the backyard (50 feet away from property line?) — Redfin calculated if this home is sold for $2M, the monthly payment at 5% 30Y fixed mortgage, HOA, insurance and Prop Taxes (I used 1.09%) is around a cool ~$10,500 a month.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/11244-Laurelcrest-Dr-92130/home/22651174

But will it sell for $2M, over and under? Place your bets!!![/quote]

Probably around that or more…

It has access to Sage Canyon Elementary and or Ocean Air, and lots of people don’t care about power lines (I do)…

[limkotir]

dupe post

[limkotir]

dupe post

[sdrealtor]

Well its seems for now the winds of change I felt last week were merely a brief Santa Ana condition. Demand came roaring back this week

New listings 14 (16) – way back down likely due to tax season

New Pendings of 24 (39) – bounced back up but well below last year with limited choices. Call it part tax season slow down and part higher prices but we should be seeing 30+ soon as long as we get the inventory. We’ll know soon

Thats -10

Closed sales at 25 –

Total houses for sale 41 (49) with median of $2.625M ($2.1M)

When I look at active inventory its just skewed too much to big high end properties and not enough 3 to 4 BR homes between 1500 and 3000 sq ft. When I take out the beach properties and big lot redevelopment potential listings there are only about 10 so still pretty slim pickings for most.

A lot of them and others are listed at crazy prices pushing the comps which seems to be a recipe to sit. The key is to list at attractive price, gets tons of traffic through and let the buyers sort out market value.

I still think the market has begun shifting but its looking like we should have another 2-3 strong months at the least.

One thing that does stand out to me having gone through all the listings this year. I am seeing some truly special properties change hands. Great homes, great lots, great locations and more that have been owned for decades are turning over at rates Ive not seen before. A lot is due to the fact people that have been here 40 to 50 years are now aging out but damn Ive seen some homes Id love to live in come up which is not the norm. The newcomers are getting some great places albeit at high prices

[sdrealtor]

Day of golf but ran the numbers and even in the face of what feels like slowing demand the market here tightened.

New listings 20 (23) – back up as we get past tax season and head to May

New Pendings of 21 (35) – pretty much in line with most of this year but well below last year with limited choices. If we dont get more inventory its gonna be tough to hit 30+ a week

Thats -1

Closed sales at 25 –

Total houses for sale 42 (48) with median of $2.53M ($1.997M)

Looks like atypo last week as my spreadheet shows 44 last week and inventory down by 2 week over week. I know its rising in places like Oceanside, Vista and Escondido but not here. That could change but it hasnt yet.

I just did a quick check of what I consider the bread and butter house around here which is a relatively affordable 4BR over 2000 sq ft. I chuckled when I realized I set the limit at $2M. At the moment there are 5 of them with the lowest at 1.6M and 2 at 1.99M (at least one of which will sell over $2M). There are 5 in coming soon status which is about normal.

Next week is when we typically see the beginning of the influx of relo buyers and the shelves are pretty bare. Hoping there’s a bunch of inventory coming later this week and next.

There is no question demand has slowed but there is no question that it still far outweighs supply here. Here’s hoping we start seeing 30-40 a week soon

A few notable closed sales

Listed at $6.995M this closed for $7.65M. A bidding war for a $7M house? Really?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/1540-Gascony-Rd-92024/unit-1/home/4062911

New record for the hood. This is a nicely remodeled home but at most slightly above average for the actual lot/location and model as compared to the hood. Wonder how much higher one of the cherries could go?

Update: this home sold for $600K more than it sold 10 months ago. The remodel was done by prior owners not these sellers.

Update 2; It was ALL CASH

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7902-Vista-Palma-92009/home/6389654

An expanded and remodelled twinhome (now 3/2 1,177 sq ft originally 2/1 827 sq ft) in what was once a 55+ community known locally as Geritol Hill. Its a beauty for what it is but $1.5M?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/220-Coneflower-St-92024/home/4097725

[DaCounselor]

A few months ago we talked about maybe seeing a spring close around $2.5 mil on a big boy 3500 sq. ft on Camino Serbal, and we end up getting one on sub 2800 sq. ft. at $2.44 mil. Who built that, Centex? All cash. Why the quick turnaround from last year’s sale?

Now it feels like $2.75-$3 mil for a big one on Serbal is in the cards before the end of the summer.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=DaCounselor]A few months ago we talked about maybe seeing a spring close around $2.5 mil on a big boy 3500 sq. ft on Camino Serbal, and we end up getting one on sub 2800 sq. ft. at $2.44 mil. Who built that, Centex? All cash. Why the quick turnaround from last year’s sale?

Now it feels like $2.75-$3 mil for a big one on Serbal is in the cards before the end of the summer.[/quote]

That’s Centex Plan 4. No idea why they left but they walked with bank

Speaking to some other agent friends they felt for some of the best homes in LCV Mid 3’s were possible. I was flabbergasted but they do as much here as anyone. They shake their heads as much as we do

[DaCounselor]

$3.5ish mil for the top end? Sure why not. How can I dispute that thought at this point LOL.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 26 (26) – back up as we head to May

New Pendings of 21 (33) – pretty much in line with most of this year but it feels a little light. We have had a bunch of new listings hit recently and this should be up a fair amount next week unless the winds have shifted strongly which is a possibility

Thats +5

Closed sales at 22 –

Total houses for sale 42 (57) with median of $2.45M ($1.86M)

We got more inventory I was hoping for and pendings still feel light. With mutliple offers it can take longer to come to agreement but its feels like more than that. I think this is a bellweather week coming up. I can feel the cooling and think we will see further softening. But Im gonna let the market decide that one way or another. My feeling is it will and then the question will be how will sellers respond if it does. Will they lower prices or stand firm? Will they take less or take it off the market?

[sdrealtor]

Gonna throw out a number. Should see around 30+ new pendings on update next Tuesday

[limkotir]

[quote=sdrealtor]Gonna throw out a number. Should see around 30+ new pendings on update next Tuesday[/quote]

Look forward to your weekly updates on the tracked zip areas and color commentary!

[sdrealtor]

Another typo last week as inventory was 54 not 42,

New listings 22 (29) – this is usually one of the hishest counts each year along with the week after schools let out.

New Pendings of 27 (33) – not as high as expected but neither were new listings. Next two weeks are usually two of the best for sellers most years with relo buyers pounding the streets in hopes of a Summer move.

Thats -5

Closed sales at 19 –

Total houses for sale 54 (59) with median of $2.195M ($1.95M)

Inventory stayed flat this week. Listings felt low this week and while pendings bumped up nicely i would have expected more. As expected, I think this is a bit of a bellweather with sluggish supply and slowing demand. The next month should be solid but after it is setting up to be a bit of stalemate. Will we see a stand off? For now it is looking that way but only time will tell

[sdrealtor]

DaCounselor asked if that house was the Canary in the Coal mine. I dont think it was but rather this weeks update could be.

New listings 32 (21) – a nice leap up to where we should be. Surprised it took so long to hit 30 in a week. Much more than we have been getting but in line with what we should be getting.

New Pendings of 13 (32) – this is a very low number and potentially the proverbial canary in the coal mine. Outside of early pandemic lockdown, holiday shutdown the lowest number Ive seen in over 2 years and this should be peak selling. More commentary below to follow

Thats +19!

Closed sales at 25 –

Total houses for sale 83 (73) with median of $2.1M ($1.85M)

Inventory is up 50% from last week. Like i have been reading in places like Calculated Risk its increasing everywhere not so much because of more supply but dimished demand.

Looking at the inventory there are great houses in every price range in lots of great neighborhoods. Maybe there are still multple offers to settle on some but still this number seems way low. We are finally positive year over year on inventory. Lets see what next week and the week after bring. With the inventory we have there should be pendings in the high 20’s if not 30’s this time of year. If not inventory will continue to grow even with limited new offerings.

Then the question is what next? Do sellers dig in their heels or reduce expectations? DaCounselor we may have our canary but then what next?

[DaCounselor]

[quote=sdrealtor]DaCounselor asked if that house was the Canary in the Coal mine. I dont think it was but rather this weeks update could be.

New listings 32 (21) – a nice leap up to where we should be. Surprised it took so long to hit 30 in a week. Much more than we have been getting but in line with what we should be getting.

New Pendings of 13 (32) – this is a very low number and potentially the proverbial canary in the coal mine. Outside of early pandemic lockdown, holiday shutdown the lowest number Ive seen in over 2 years and this should be peak selling. More commentary below to follow

Thats +19!

Closed sales at 25 –

Total houses for sale 83 (73) with median of $2.1M ($1.85M)

Inventory is up 50% from last week. Like i have been reading in places like Calculated Risk its increasing everywhere not so much because of more supply but dimished demand.

Looking at the inventory there are great houses in every price range in lots of great neighborhoods. Maybe there are still multple offers to settle on some but still this number seems way low. We are finally positive year over year on inventory. Lets see what next week and the week after bring. With the inventory we have there should be pendings in the high 20’s if not 30’s this time of year. If not inventory will continue to grow even with limited new offerings.

Then the question is what next? Do sellers dig in their heels or reduce expectations? DaCounselor we may have our canary but then what next?[/quote]

Plus 19, wow. I looked at your numbers from this time last year and we were minus 11 for the 3rd week of May. Lots of minuses over the past few years overall, seems like more evidence of the winds of change you felt last month.

Yeah the Jacaranda listing is one data point in a sea of data, just find it interesting that it’s on its second price reduction (today) and down to the price of the sale of that floorplan in August ’21. So no bidding war, or even an offer? Agree that the time to sell that house at peak has probably passed.

What next? I’ve been bullish long-term big picture on SD for 30 years, with some specific bearish periods mixed in. Let’s just say my mood right now has more in common with a Grizzly than an Angus.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=DaCounselor][quote=sdrealtor]DaCounselor asked if that house was the Canary in the Coal mine. I dont think it was but rather this weeks update could be.

New listings 32 (21) – a nice leap up to where we should be. Surprised it took so long to hit 30 in a week. Much more than we have been getting but in line with what we should be getting.

New Pendings of 13 (32) – this is a very low number and potentially the proverbial canary in the coal mine. Outside of early pandemic lockdown, holiday shutdown the lowest number Ive seen in over 2 years and this should be peak selling. More commentary below to follow

Thats +19!

Closed sales at 25 –

Total houses for sale 83 (73) with median of $2.1M ($1.85M)

Inventory is up 50% from last week. Like i have been reading in places like Calculated Risk its increasing everywhere not so much because of more supply but dimished demand.

Looking at the inventory there are great houses in every price range in lots of great neighborhoods. Maybe there are still multple offers to settle on some but still this number seems way low. We are finally positive year over year on inventory. Lets see what next week and the week after bring. With the inventory we have there should be pendings in the high 20’s if not 30’s this time of year. If not inventory will continue to grow even with limited new offerings.

Then the question is what next? Do sellers dig in their heels or reduce expectations? DaCounselor we may have our canary but then what next?[/quote]

Plus 19, wow. I looked at your numbers from this time last year and we were minus 11 for the 3rd week of May. Lots of minuses over the past few years overall, seems like more evidence of the winds of change you felt last month.

Yeah the Jacaranda listing is one data point in a sea of data, just find it interesting that it’s on its second price reduction (today) and down to the price of the sale of that floorplan in August ’21. So no bidding war, or even an offer? Agree that the time to sell that house at peak has probably passed.

What next? I’ve been bullish long-term big picture on SD for 30 years, with some specific bearish periods mixed in. Let’s just say my mood right now has more in common with a Grizzly than an Angus.[/quote]

Yes that was a big change and the last time we saw a number like +19 was in May 2020 as we emerged from the lockdown with pent up supply. The difference it was mid 40’s new listings (supply driven) and mid twenties pendings. Now we are getting more typical supply but lowered demand (lower demand driven)

The Jacaranda listing i put no weight on. I rarely would point to a single sale as there are so many things that could impair a sale. That one has a tough location, is offering below market compensation to agents, shows poorly, has poor photos, is a wonky floorplan (4BR in 1600 sq ft and only 2 bath just aint right) and small lot. Its a complete gut and remodel with no payoff for doing one without a good floorplan, lot or location.

As for whats next? I still beleive supply will stay modest with folks locked in because of low real estate taxes they cant move (under 55 years old), potential massive capital gain tax bills and fixed rate mortgages under 3%. I fit into 2 of those in a big way.

We have seen an entirely new class of resident here with homes regularly selling in the 3 to 8M range. Prior to 2 years it was nearly unheard of to see something sell above $2M. Maybe some of the low $3M sales would be $2M then but the ones above that didnt happen and there have been a bunch. In the last 24 months there have been 168 sales close above 3M. Thats more than the entire history of the MLS prior to that going back another 25 years or so.

The genie is out of the bottle here and not going back in. I remain very bullish long term here. I will acknowledge we are due for flatsville or some giveback on the more outrageous sales above list prices.

To put some numbers on it I’ll use mine which was about 1.15M pre-pandemic and now above $2M. I could see things staying relatively flat (say within 10%) here if there is a seller strike. I fully expect that there could be sales that would be place it more in 1.7 to 1.8 range (my most likely scenario sometime in the next 2 to 4 years). I could see a doomsday scenario taking it back to 1.5Mish . But no way its going back to 1.15M. That horse left the building and aint coming back.

Personally a bit of a downturn would be better for my business and allow me to complete the building project I want to easier and less expensively.

Its funny because last weekend I had a bunch of friends over for a wine dinner/birthday party. One of my friends is old friends with Pigg Poster Barnaby who joined us for the gala. Not much real estate talk but one thing we did get into was his insistence that all real estate here was purchased speculatively. I do not beleive that and know it to be untrue based upon dealing with countless folks like myself. My house is my home. I did not buy it to make money but rather to have safe and stable place for my family to live. While I enjoy its current FMV it means little to me and nothing in my life would change if it went up to $3m or down to $500K. Its my home and thats all

[teaboy]

[quote=sdrealtor] I still beleive supply will stay modest with folks locked in because of low real estate taxes they cant move (under 55 years old), potential massive capital gain tax bills and fixed rate mortgages under 3%. I fit into 2 of those in a big way.
[/quote]

This is not new news, but thanks for reminding me that I’m effectively locked into my house for at least the next 12 years, until I’m 55 so I should stop procrastinating and get on with those renovations… 🙂

tb

[sdrealtor]

[quote=teaboy][quote=sdrealtor] I still beleive supply will stay modest with folks locked in because of low real estate taxes they cant move (under 55 years old), potential massive capital gain tax bills and fixed rate mortgages under 3%. I fit into 2 of those in a big way.
[/quote]

This is not new news, but thanks for reminding me that I’m effectively locked into my house for at least the next 12 years, until I’m 55 so I should stop procrastinating and get on with those renovations… 🙂

tb[/quote]

One thing i have seen countless times is people fix up their homes for sale and look at them and say why didn’t I do this for myself years ago so i could enjoy it also. It looks great. Happens everytime

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=teaboy][quote=sdrealtor] I still beleive supply will stay modest with folks locked in because of low real estate taxes they cant move (under 55 years old), potential massive capital gain tax bills and fixed rate mortgages under 3%. I fit into 2 of those in a big way.
[/quote]

This is not new news, but thanks for reminding me that I’m effectively locked into my house for at least the next 12 years, until I’m 55 so I should stop procrastinating and get on with those renovations… 🙂

tb[/quote]

One thing i have seen countless times is people fix up their homes for sale and look at them and say why didn’t I do this for myself years ago so i could enjoy it also. It looks great. Happens everytime[/quote]You and me both. Which is why I remodeled about 70% before I moved in and did the other 30% w/in the next few years.

[Pbranding]

[quote=sdrealtor] I still beleive supply will stay modest with folks locked in because of low real estate taxes they cant move (under 55 years old), potential massive capital gain tax bills and fixed rate mortgages under 3%. I fit into 2 of those in a big way.
[/quote]

What’s the percentage of homes bought by corporations? I’ve read it’s up to a third in some cities. Wondering if anyone knows the percentages in SD?

[sdrealtor]

I’ve seen little to none of this with the exception being the ibuyers like redfin Zillow open door and some of the bigger flipper groups

[ncsd760]

Sitio Lima in LCO closed for 2.8 (bought for 760k) … wonder why Serbal isn’t pending yet on a better lot/street with real upgrades.

Seeing some overpriced homes languish and I think that’s normal and no cause for panic. If Jacaranda was sitting at 999k maybe I’d be nervous but for 1.25 I’d rather take a nicer condo with a less frustrating floorplan/lot.

[sdrealtor]

It’s way too soon for Serbal to go pending. At best they have a deadline for offers tonight. We won’t know what’s going on there for a few days

[DaCounselor]

[quote=ncsd760]Sitio Lima in LCO closed for 2.8 (bought for 760k) … wonder why Serbal isn’t pending yet on a better lot/street with real upgrades.

Seeing some overpriced homes languish and I think that’s normal and no cause for panic. If Jacaranda was sitting at 999k maybe I’d be nervous but for 1.25 I’d rather take a nicer condo with a less frustrating floorplan/lot.[/quote]

The RP subdivision seems like it’s all over the place regarding pricing. I think that Jacaranda house might have been in the range of $900K pre-COVID? Let’s see what they can get now. I’m feeling like $1.1-something.

There’s another one in there with a recent list-sale-list-price reduction history, not sure why the quick re-list unless it fell out of escrow?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7917-Las-Nueces-Pl-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16710515_zpid/

What I find interesting is how it got bid up $225K yet back on the market they’re dropping the price.

Anyway i think sdr’s stats give a good wider lens on the local market and what’s trending. I still like looking at what’s going on with individual properties though.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=DaCounselor][quote=ncsd760]Sitio Lima in LCO closed for 2.8 (bought for 760k) … wonder why Serbal isn’t pending yet on a better lot/street with real upgrades.

Seeing some overpriced homes languish and I think that’s normal and no cause for panic. If Jacaranda was sitting at 999k maybe I’d be nervous but for 1.25 I’d rather take a nicer condo with a less frustrating floorplan/lot.[/quote]

The RP subdivision seems like it’s all over the place regarding pricing. I think that Jacaranda house might have been in the range of $900K pre-COVID? Let’s see what they can get now. I’m feeling like $1.1-something.

There’s another one in there with a recent list-sale-list-price reduction history, not sure why the quick re-list unless it fell out of escrow?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7917-Las-Nueces-Pl-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16710515_zpid/

What I find interesting is how it got bid up $225K yet back on the market they’re dropping the price.

Anyway i think sdr’s stats give a good wider lens on the local market and what’s trending. I still like looking at what’s going on with individual properties though.[/quote]

Agree and i love following the individual cases. I could see Serbal going well over 3 or sitting by listing a month too late. And they got shafted with lousy cold weather all weekend so house didn’t show best nor did extra lookie loos show up making it seem more competitive than it is

[sdrealtor]

So the buyer of Nueces got caught up in peak March frenzy and paid cash. Then before they moved in found another closer to the beach they liked better, got caught in another April frenzy bidding war and bought that one cash also. Now they need to get rid of this surplus house. Some people

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Maybe put that Canary on hold for a bit longer before we can make a call one way or another.

New listings 23 (19) – back down to where we have been most of the last 2 months and slightly more than a year ago

New Pendings of 25 (41) – back up to where we have been most of the last 2 months and way down from a year ago

Thats -2

Closed sales at 15 –

Total houses for sale 87 (49) with median of $2.1M ($1.925M). The 49 last year was a bit of a low outlier as it was 60ish most of May/June.

The story for the week and month of May as a whole is the same. New supply is staying about the same but it is demand that has fallen off. For the first time in a while you can go look at a home or two for sale in most neighborhoods. Thats nice to see.

Pendings into mid 20’s which was a nice bounce back but still feels a little lighter than we should be. If we get back into mid 30’s that would signal market is firming up.

Seasonal pattern should be a little more inventory growth over next month or two and then dropping after end of summer into year end. Based upon what Ive been seeing, If it hit around 120 I wouldnt be surprised but 150ish and balance is shifting to buyers

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Got a doozy this week and an example of why anyone who thinks the outcome is predetermined is kidding themselves. Not only do we put the Canary on hold but perhaps we just return it to the petshop altogether.

New listings 7 (23) – you read that right! Only 7! Thats a December holiday season number not a peak listing week number.

New Pendings of 21 (32) – solid number given levels this year indicating relative balance

Thats -14

Closed sales at 26 –

Total houses for sale 71 (57) with median of $2.145M ($2M). Thats a good size drop from last week and would not be surprised to see us negative y-o-y again in another 2 to 3 weeks

I do think the 7 new listings was a bit of an outlier and see a bunch queued up in Coming Soon status. Wouldnt be shocked to see 30+ this week. I think we will get back to more typical numbers quickly but just the same it was an eye opener. We get 2 or 3 weeks like this and we can get down to strong sellers market territory again quickly. Not saying its gonna but it could as we just saw.

Pendings are slow and steady with crazy bidding wars done but its far from a buyers market here. Looking at the market about 20% is what I would consider high end and not part of the everyday market. With tract homes now selling into the $3M’s I consider the high end here starting around $4M. Still a head scratcher for me

After this week it could be a struggle to get inventory over 100. Im thinking over 120 is unlikely this year and 150 outside the realm given recent activity. So expect things to remain in sellers favor this year

[sdrealtor]

Sorry for late update, ran numbers but ran up to LA for a concert last night.

New listings 19 (19) – as expected last week was a lowside outlier. New listings bounced back up to normal range but not excessive at all

New Pendings of 23 (32) – pendings are pretty consistent from week to week

Thats -14

Closed sales at 17 – this is starting to show something I’ll explain later

Total houses for sale 86 (54) with median of $1.985M ($2M). Back up to where it was two weeks ago

A few things going on here. We are entering the time of year we typically see inventory rise and normal conditions would dictate about 2 more months of rising inventory though not a huge increase.

While new homes coming on the market can be roughly the same as new pendings we can and do see inventory rise for a couple reasons. First we see homes selling off market and getting entered into the MLS as pending so they dont hit the market as new listings. The other thing is we are seeing a higher fallout of escrow rate than we were seeing during the frenzy when it was so tough to get into escrow few would dare cancel. Despite the time lag between pendings and closings when we see closings consistently below the levels of pendings thats indicative of homes falling out of escrow.

I took a look at the inventory to see how sellers are reacting thus far. About 60% the inventory is on the market 3 weeks or less which is too early for a price change in most cases. If you havent see an offer in 3 weeks its generally the time to take a second look at your price.

There are 15 homes on the market for 21+ days under $2m. Of those 9 have had a price reduction mostly in homes listed by the more experienced agents. They are doing their jobs to find the market level something newer agents have no experience with.

Between $2 and 3M only 5 of 13 have reduced. I see a combination of inexperienced agents and likely ego driven sellers.

Above $3M only 3 of 12 reduced. Three things typically go on up here. These are more unique harder to value homes that get listed high and let market sort out value. Second, the market for these homes is much smaller and they always take longer. Last these often include weathier owners and/or longtime homeowners that will sell if they get their price but not if they dont.

Market as a whole is not doing anything unusual and indicative of shift away from frenzy into balance.

[matt]

I respectfully submit to the forum that we have peaked and that the 2.8m and 3.1m properties in LCO near the power lines on Lima represent the peak of this cycle. Who agrees with me?

[sdrealtor]

I agree that we appear to have peaked but reserve the right to say never mind next Spring as things have become so hard to predict. That’s a good one but there are plenty others. I sold a listing last month that made me happy for my long time client who I got the best deal anyone got in one of the nicest townhome communities here during the downturn. Then we sold it for a price record I think could stand another decade. Single mom started with basically nothing but a good job, left with 500k and a great guy a decade later. She got it coming and going.

[sdrealtor]

Just like in MM I was away last year and dont have year over year numbers here either

New listings 20 a little lighter than expected

New Pendings of 21 demand waning

Thats -1

Closed sales at 16 –

Total houses for sale 98 with median of $2.05M

(copied from MM monitor as its the same story)

This looks like it could be the beginning of a market shifting into stagnancy. The mainstream media is starting to write about this also. Demand is falling rapidly but new supply is also. We could settle in to a narrow range where volume is very low without much movement on pricing unless supply starts spiking.

https://money.yahoo.com/housing-market-h&#8230;

One thing to look for with low demand is the departure of many of my colleagues over the next couple years. Less volume, less paychecks for agents. This could and should happen regardless of what happens with pricing.

Today we saw two of the poster child brokerages for living off of public market money (Redfin and Compass) announce significant layoffs. Pricing of homes is not particuarly relevant to them. Sales volume is relevant to them and thats falling quickly.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/real-est&#8230;

Will be interesting to watch this all and I’ll be in my front row seat throw it all. Im built for this and not going anywhere

[Pbranding]

Thanks SDR,
Are you noticing price decreases? I’m seeing a lot of it in poway/4s ranch/del sur areas.

[matt]

It’s true that anyone sitting on a 2.5% mortgage is going to very reluctantly sell, particularly in beautiful San Diego – a market that is renowned for being impossible to get back into once you leave.

Investors that have ridden the capital appreciation wave may decide to cash in at this point of the cycle. The yields will not be there for any recent buyer.

Jobs will be key as well as the stock market and crypto (huge losses). If you purchased or HELOCed anticipating major RSU income you could be in trouble. If you are in a venture capital or growth start up that isn’t making money you could be in trouble. Fiscally responsible folk with steady income and well financed homes should be just fine. Let’s see what happens with inventory as we head Into the fall.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=matt]It’s true that anyone sitting on a 2.5% mortgage is going to very reluctantly sell, particularly in beautiful San Diego – a market that is renowned for being impossible to get back into once you leave.

Investors that have ridden the capital appreciation wave may decide to cash in at this point of the cycle. The yields will not be there for any recent buyer.

Jobs will be key as well as the stock market and crypto (huge losses). If you purchased or HELOCed anticipating major RSU income you could be in trouble. If you are in a venture capital or growth start up that isn’t making money you could be in trouble. Fiscally responsible folk with steady income and well financed homes should be just fine. Let’s see what happens with inventory as we head Into the fall.[/quote]

Agree with most of this and dont really disagree with last part I just dont think that those in the last paragraph are leveraged and plentiful enough to have a material impact on the market. And if you are holding onto the house is likely one of if not your top priorrity in the majority of cases.

Again not saying we cant/wont go down I just think its gonna have to come from something else

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Pbranding]Thanks SDR,
Are you noticing price decreases? I’m seeing a lot of it in poway/4s ranch/del sur areas.[/quote]

I would say yes but with a few caveats. Some of those are shooting too high. The comps were achieved starting much lower and bid up powered by extremely low inventory. It only took one person willing and able to get that price and Ive sold some where there was only one person. No one knows where the market is and there is still plenty of demand. I think you have to start below the comps and see what the market will determine is right price now.

Lastly I think this Spring was pretty much a once in lifetime confluence of events. The last spurt never felt real to me and was more hysteria feeding on low rates. I would not be surprised to see us retrace back to the levels we started this year at not so much as a downturn but as a return to sanity.

[sdrealtor]

Update here to with y-o-y maing its return after a brief hiatus

New listings 32 (30) – should be peak listing time around now and if we see much higher ahead thats notable

New Pendings of 18 (25) – continuing to drop each week which is typical of the time of year and not in itself notable. The gap between new listings and new pendings is what is more notable

Thats -14

Closed sales at 19 (24)

Total houses for sale 111 (69) with median of $2.08M ($1.8M).

Inventory contiinues rising as it typically does and usually peaks in late July to early August. We are still averaging about 3 pendings per day over last couple weeks which puts us under 1 and 1/2 months of inventory.

We are starting to see the market separate and return to more traditional patterns. In a typical market the best homes here always sell well at top dollar while homes with challenges be they condition, floor plan, lot, location or pricing sit unless price is properly discounted for that. In a booming sellers market such as weve had the last 2 years, everything sells and homes take less of a discount because of panic driven buying. Thats not the case anymore in current conditions. With more choices buyers are more prone to wait for the right one

[sdrealtor]

New listings 21 (24) – as expected dropped down from what should’ve been peak listing. I dont think we’ll see 30 again and if we do more than once it would be notable

New Pendings of 16 (34) – still dropping and buyer starting to resist prices

Thats +5

Closed sales at 20 (31)

Total houses for sale 120 (69) with median of $2M ($1.8M).

Inventory still climbing slowly but still around 1 1/2 months. No more than 15% have reduced prices so far. thats a sign of seller staying power/resistance. As we head toward end of Summer will be interesting to see if sellers reduce or pull homes off market. In the month of June 12 sellers decided to pull their homes off the market. Another thing i’ll be watching

[sdrealtor]

New listings 15 (22) – another nice drop with a holiday weekend and peak listing time past

New Pendings of 20 (23) – a bit of a bump from last week. Still demand out there

Thats -5

Closed sales at 16 (27)

Total houses for sale 121 (74) with median of $1.995M ($1.887M).

Inventory basically flat since last week. Starting to wonder if we have seen peak inventory for the year? Pendings should continue to march along at current pace but will sellers flood the market. Im thinking they wont and some will start to pull homes off the market that dont sell in the next 30 to 60 days. I think we’ll be back under 100 by end of Summer if not sooner.

Also seeing a fair amount of price reductions as homes reach 2, 3 and 4 weeks on the market. These are motivated sellers with expereinced agents doing their jobs. If it isnt generating offers/selling by these times its time to look at pricing if you are searching for the market level. Good to see that

[Andrew32]

The two listed homes in my 92011 neighborhood are sitting for a couple weeks now. The prior four home sales here in the last 6 months all went fast, within a week.

[sdrealtor]

And there’s a pretty simple reason why. All the prior sales were listed lower and bid up under frenzy conditions. When those houses sold at those price levels there was one buyer willing to pay that and the buyer behind them could’ve been far less. So what do the new sellers do? They take the highest price and add 5 to 10% to it. With peak selling season past and frenzy conditions gone they sit. This is a pricing issue that’s fairly easy to fix

[evolusd]

[quote=sdrealtor]And there’s a pretty simple reason why. All the prior sales were listed lower and bid up under frenzy conditions. When those houses sold at those price levels there was one buyer willing to pay that and the buyer behind them could’ve been far less. So what do the new sellers do? They take the highest price and add 5 to 10% to it. With peak selling season past and frenzy conditions gone they sit. This is a pricing issue that’s fairly easy to fix[/quote]

Looks like in his ‘hood Treviso, current listings are at high mark of recent sales, not 5-10% higher. One of the listings just sold in May and is now back on the market at same price, very strange. Given rates, achieving those same prices today seems unrealistic.

Definitely a nice little neighborhood, but those prices are insane given HOA and tax rate, IMO.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=evolusd][quote=sdrealtor]And there’s a pretty simple reason why. All the prior sales were listed lower and bid up under frenzy conditions. When those houses sold at those price levels there was one buyer willing to pay that and the buyer behind them could’ve been far less. So what do the new sellers do? They take the highest price and add 5 to 10% to it. With peak selling season past and frenzy conditions gone they sit. This is a pricing issue that’s fairly easy to fix[/quote]

Looks like in his ‘hood Treviso, current listings are at high mark of recent sales, not 5-10% higher. One of the listings just sold in May and is now back on the market at same price, very strange. Given rates, achieving those same prices today seems unrealistic.

Definitely a nice little neighborhood, but those prices are insane given HOA and tax rate, IMO.[/quote]

Guess I should have been more clear. The homes today should be listed at what the homes that recently sold were listed at (adjusted for differences) not the 5 to 10% over asking price those houses went for.

For example there is one listed at $1.485M. The last sale of that model was listed at $1.425 and sold for $1.51M in the frenzy. This new one is not nearly as nice with basic landscaping not the $100K + the one that went for $1.51M went for had in landscape and upgrades. This one should be listed no higher than $1.35M IMO (the 1.425 – 75K for landscape and upgrades if not more). If there are multiple buyers and the market is higher than that it will get bid up. But listing that one at $1.485M (started at 1.499) is about 10% too high on the asking price

The one that is back on the market listed at 1.44M and sold during frenzy at 1.67M because one buyer was willing to pay that. Realistically should be back on the market at 1.44 and let the market sort it out but of course that one buyer wants/expects/hopes to get their money back

[sdrealtor]

New listings 23 (25) – back up after holiday

New Pendings of 22 (25) – Still demand out there

Thats +1

Closed sales at 16 (30)

Total houses for sale 128 (77) with median of $1.995M ($1.95M).

Inventory is inching up but compared to last year. We are listing similar numbers for the last 4 months but demand is quite a bit lower (maybe 30-40% lower than last year). I could see us getting around 140ish in the enxt few weeks but higher would be a bit of a surprise. The would should bleed inventory through the end of the year.

Pendings still holding around the same level each week.

Still no run for the exits to be seen up here. Still seeing a fair amount of price reductions (about 15% of listings) but most holding firm.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 13 (29) – atypical weekly drop like that this time of year

New Pendings of 19 (31) – Still demand out there

Thats -6

Closed sales at 13 (35)

Total houses for sale 127 (80) with median of $1.95M ($1.99M)

Inventory dropped by one but the bigger thing of note was the drop in new listings. Watching things as I do its feeling like less is coming on and sellers are starting to dig in. But like in MM Id like to see this persist for a few weeks before declaring peak inventory past for the year. If these trends continue both places we’ll look back at this week as when we saw the frist sign of a soft landing but still a lot TBD first

A couple notable sales this week with a great house thats been on the market over a year entering escrow around $7M

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/2054-Sheridan-Rd-92024/home/3783690

And this one which if it closes will establish a price record by around double the previous high sale when this home sold for $11M back in 2016. At $20Mish we’ll likely welcome a new celebrity neighbor to the community

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/532-Neptune-Ave-92024/home/4087143

[sdrealtor]

most new listings get entered wednesday through friday, so far 8 this week. We may actually get a sellers strike. Gonna try to follow this aspect closely to see if its happens

[sdrealtor]

Ran numbers but caught $10 Tuesday at Cinopolis yesterday. here they are.

New listings 16 (21) – another low number. 2 more weeks to get house on market and sell before end of summer

New Pendings of 15 (28) – demand waning but typically see one more burst to get in before school starts. Watch if that happens?

Thats +1

Closed sales at 20 (17)

Total houses for sale 141 (73) with median of $1.95M ($2.1M)

Same trend continues. New listings are atypically low but pendings dropped even more. Inventory feels plateauish for now but in 2 weeks when listings should start to drop even more and we should get last surge to get in before school starts inventory should start to drop. For now soft landing conditions are still present.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 16 (23) – another low number. Looks like this is the eay its gonna be

New Pendings of 21 (18) – slight bump, gettin in before school starts

Thats -5

Closed sales at 16 (16)

Total houses for sale 129 (91) with median of $1.95M (didnt record it last year)

Last week was actually 131 inventory

Last year this was the peak inventory week. This year we’ve been pretty flat the last 4 weeks.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 9 (23) – even lower number. Looks like we may have a seller strike on our hands as I beleived we might. Will keep following this

New Pendings of 12 (34) – buyers aint playing either

Thats -3

Closed sales at 20 (24)

Total houses for sale 132 (86) with median of $1.95M (1.985M)

Inventory basically flat for 5 weeks now.

Last July we had 97 new listings and 107 pendings. Last July we had 67 new listings and 76 pendings.

[sdrealtor]

Been real busy with stuff so not sure if I’ll get to update this week. If not I checked some prelim numbers. Looking more and more like sellers strike. New listings are very low and pendings are out numbering them. Peak inventory seems to be in ouor rear view mirror

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=sdrealtor]Been real busy with stuff so not sure if I’ll get to update this week. [/quote]

Understandable, but hopefully you will manage to update. As much as I’ve enjoyed a lot of the other discussions on Piggington, for me, this thread has become one of the most interesting. It helps me to understand what is going on if only in a very limited location. (Three zip codes) And as a bonus, it is timely, not a month or three months behind. So, hopefully you’ll provide this real estate trend junkie his weekly fix.

[sdrealtor]

I ran the data but I’m out in the desert to catch a concert with my daughter and don’t have the historical data with me. I’ll post when i get back on Thursday. Preview more of the same. Limited new inventory, Pendings greater than new. Inventory slowly dropping. And for what it’s worth I think these three ZIP Codes are a great bellwether for Southern California. I’m on a weekly pod cast with a Good housing economist who does the best job in Southern California. I think he’s often a little bit behind and while I don’t call him out on the webcast I do in private messages. He was saying inventory would keep rising until October and I told him he was wrong and that it would peek by mid or early August. Two weeks ago I told him he was going to have to revise his Forecast soon. He disagreed then but changed it last week. I gave him a good ribbing privately lol

[sdrealtor]

New listings 12 (17) – a bit better than last week but still low.

New Pendings of 18 (28) – bargain hunting buyers seem to have come back in small numbers

Thats -6

Closed sales at 10 (25)

Total houses for sale 125 (64)

Inventory dropped a bit more. Of note, this week last year inventory dropped from 86 to 64 due to a surge in pendinings and sellers taking homes on the market that didnt sell quickly. I expect more of the later this year to be increasingly common too. While its gonna take some work, dropping below 100 by Labor Day would not shock me.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 14 (19) – still low they usually tread water now until Mid Oct and then drop so more

New Pendings of 19 (31) –

Thats -5

Closed sales at 14 (28)

Total houses for sale 124 (68)

Inventory still about the same. Not much new on the market, not much selling will be interesting to see when folks start giving up.

One thing I have noticed is quite a few sellers that have owned 1-3 years. This happened when I moved into my neighborhood in the early 2000’s when prices jumped. Bunch of folks new to the area saw gains they never saw back home, took the money and went back to live like a king/queen. My kids lost a bunch of friends that way

[sdrealtor]

New listings 14 (14) – still low they usually tread water now until Mid Oct and then drop so more

New Pendings of 22 (26) –

Thats -8

Closed sales at 12 (20)

Total houses for sale 122 (66) with median of $1.998M ($2.3M).

I dont think we’ll see inventory levels on par with last year here. I could see us getting below 75 but we ended up under 20 at year end last year. Thats why things exploded so much in Spring and why the give back has been and will continue to be so quick IMO.

[matt]

My LCO rental property zillow estimate is down 9.8 percent (232k) in the last 30 days. yikes :)!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=matt]My LCO rental property zillow estimate is down 9.8 percent (232k) in the last 30 days. yikes :)![/quote]

Yes prices that people are getting now seem 10-15% what a few folks got during peak frenzy. I think this is good for the long term health of the market. I have said it s few times. I expect us to muddle through next few months then a solid but unspectacular Spring followed by another rough summer/fall. Then we can return to normal appreciation patterns

Zillow shows me down 9%. It takes a while for data to catch up with reality

[sdrealtor]

Before I post my update I just got this data from local board of realtors. Here are median sales prices the last 5 months for both detached and attached homes in North County (which is a wider area than my report covers but not a bad comp)

Attached

April 22 740K
May 22 698K
June 22 690K
July 22 682K
Aug 22 673K

Thats down 9.1% in 4 months

Detached

April 22 1.1M
May 22 1.1M
June 22 1.08M
July 22 1.02M
Aug 22 985K

Thats down 10.5% in 3 months

Ive been saying for a few over a month prices are down about 10% from peak and now have the data. I think once the properties that went under contract in Aug close in Sept it will be a few % more. By year end we should be down close to 15% from Spring peak numbers.

This data should reach the media soon. I suspect they will focus on the fact that prices are up year over year rather than what has happened the last few months. Will be fun to watch how they report this.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 (9) – was low last year also but two years ago was 31 the week with Labor Day weekend

New Pendings of 11 (26) –

Thats -5

Closed sales at 17 (19)

Total houses for sale 117 (59) with median of $1.998M ($2.3M).

I think its noteworthy that this is the first time I can remember the number of listing up here being lower than those I track in Mira Mesa. The seller strike is on in earnest up here. I think while we are down 10-15% in only 3 months the easy fall in prices is past and declines will come slower going forward.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 10 (23) – Last year listing volume bounced back but not this year.

New Pendings of 15 (24) –

Thats -5

Closed sales at 8 (29)

Total houses for sale 107 (61) with median of $1.998M ($2.3M)

Sellers strike continues if not accelerates. This is typically the time of year inventory starts to really drop and we saw that as hypothesized last month.

Ignoring the median list price, I ran a check on last 30 days of closed sales. Its about 1.779m median vs 1.543M same period last year. Prices are still up quite a bit y-o-y for now. More notably there were 105 closings last year over this 30 days period but only 59 this year. Volume is thinning out and Id expect that to continue.

A couple weeks ago I mentioned I thought we could see flat y-o-y inventory at some point in next few months. While that is looking less likely if it did happen it would be more due to sellers taking homes off the market than a surge in buying activity. Good chance we are below 100 next week. That would make running these numbers easy as the system can only return 100 results and Ive to split up my data pulls for now

There are lots of really nice homes on the market that are sitting. I expect that to continue through y/e but in Spring buyers and sellers should come to a meeting of minds more frequently.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 10 (17) – still little coming on market

New Pendings of 10 (26) – and little selling

Thats flat (bit starting to see more taken off market)

Closed sales at 13 (14)

Total houses for sale 102 (60) with median of $2.1M ($2.3M)

Didnt make it under 100 but should next week. Seeing more taken off the market up here than down MM but pendings a bit stronger down there comapartively.

Spoke to a lender friend this morning. Said its very quiet and he explains daily to people the same loan $1M is gonna cost them over $2K more a month than at beginning of year. Told me I should think about playing golf the next few years. I told him I was one my way to play today. Shot a great round.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry got busy and forgot to post the numbers

New listings 11 (11) – still little coming on market

New Pendings of 16 (22) – and little selling

Thats -5

Closed sales at 18 (21)

Total houses for sale 98 (57) with median of $1.98M ($2.65M). Last year there was very little on low end left hence the high median

Continuing to see more sellers give up. We usually see lots take em off the market starting in Mid Nov for the holidays but it feels like its starting earlier

[sdrealtor]

New listings 9 (19) – still little coming on market

New Pendings of 12 (28) – and little selling

Thats -3

Closed sales at 12 (24)

Total houses for sale 100 (59) with median of $1.99M ($2.5M).

Inventory went up a couple this week which happened last year also. No idea if that means anything.

Funny thing is a couple months ago I thought we might get flat y-o-y innventory here but not in MM. Fast forward and I think the opposite is true now. The higher interest rates seem to be hitting the higher priced inventory harder

[sdrealtor]

New listings 12 (14) – still little coming on market

New Pendings of 16 (22) – and little selling

Thats -4

Closed sales at 13 (23)

Total houses for sale 96 (49) with median of $1.99M ($2.65M).

Inventory edged back down but not like last year. I remember watching the flow last year and commenting how overheated the market was and it was like watching a powder keg getting ready to explode in the new year. Very different this year with market times mostly in the 30-60 day range

[sdrealtor]

New listings 15 (15) – a little more coming on market

New Pendings of 12 (19) – and little selling

Thats +3

Closed sales at 15 (31)

Total houses for sale 98 (49) with median of $1.799M ($2.4M).

Watching the way I do sometimes I just feel things the in the data points that dont quite show up in the data.

A few things I see. New listings ticked up a touch and it was the highest count in 2 1/2 months. Pendings continue to lag.

The big drop in the median lisitng price y-o-y seems to be due to lots of high end homes coming on the market last year. In the past there was little to no market for them but now there has been the last year or two. The high end market up here is as strong or stronger than the more standard offerings.

I still believe we wont see a flood of inventory with people locked in low mortgages and having huge potential cap gains bills. However there are and will continue to be a decent amount of long time homeowners who are only too happy to take the money. There are tons of folks up here that paid 300-500K 20+ years ago for homes that hit $2 – 3M last Spring that are now back into 1.5 to 2.5M. Thats still plenty for some long timers and the excess would be taxed horribly anyway.

Again dont see a flood but do see enough coming to continue exherting downward pressure next year.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 (17) – less coming on market

New Pendings of 19 (14) – but more selling with lower prices

Thats -13

Closed sales at 8 (23)

Total houses for sale 93 (55) with median of $1.85M ($2.5M).

And just like that new listings evaporate again. The bigger surprise though is the big bounce back in pendings! There were tons of buyers out last Spring and many didnt get new homes. Im sure the higher rates have priced out a bunch of folks but not all. Prices are lower now, a lot lower. Im talking as much as 200-400K for some houses and that seems to be getting some folks off the sidelines.

I’ll be watching that and if it continues it will serve as more evidence that there will be enough buyers at new price levels to prevent another big leg down. Im still thinking we should see another 10% next year but also thinking that may very well be it.

On a side note spent a quick weekend back east at a high school reunion which was an amazing experience. Reconnected with lots of childhood friends that are not just incredibly succesful but also still well grounded wonderful kind people. Oh and funny too. Havent laughed so much in a while. No one cared so much what others achieved but rather that we were all generally happy, healthy and here. And then a baseball game with a legendary ending before grabbing a flight home Sunday night. So fortunate

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=sdrealtor]And then a baseball game with a legendary ending before grabbing a flight home Sunday night. So fortunate[/quote]

That ending sucked.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=sdrealtor]And then a baseball game with a legendary ending before grabbing a flight home Sunday night. So fortunate[/quote]

That ending sucked.[/quote]

I loved it

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=sdrealtor]New listings 6 (17) – less coming on market

New Pendings of 19 (14) – but more selling with lower prices

Thats -13

Closed sales at 8 (23)

Total houses for sale 93 (55) with median of $1.85M ($2.5M).

And just like that new listings evaporate again. The bigger surprise though is the big bounce back in pendings! There were tons of buyers out last Spring and many didnt get new homes. Im sure the higher rates have priced out a bunch of folks but not all. Prices are lower now, a lot lower. Im talking as much as 200-400K for some houses and that seems to be getting some folks off the sidelines.

I’ll be watching that and if it continues it will serve as more evidence that there will be enough buyers at new price levels to prevent another big leg down. Im still thinking we should see another 10% next year but also thinking that may very well be it.

On a side note spent a quick weekend back east at a high school reunion which was an amazing experience. Reconnected with lots of childhood friends that are not just incredibly succesful but also still well grounded wonderful kind people. Oh and funny too. Havent laughed so much in a while. No one cared so much what others achieved but rather that we were all generally happy, healthy and here. And then a baseball game with a legendary ending before grabbing a flight home Sunday night. So fortunate[/quote]

Thoughts on downtown condos?

No piles of equity I’m guessing.

Lots of building going on.

Comparable pent up demand?

Seing small declines but where does this settle?

[sdrealtor]

Just saw this. Id have to look into it but Ive always felt the high maintenance fees down there always are a tough sell down there particularly when appreciation isnt in the near term cards

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=sdrealtor]Just saw this. Id have to look into it but Ive always felt the high maintenance fees down there always are a tough sell down there particularly when appreciation isnt in the near term cards[/quote]

Are condo maintenance fees really higher than house maintenance fees? They’re irritating, sure,because they’re every month. But I wonder if they’re really more costly than regular home maintenance costs.

[sdrealtor]

I’ve not spent over $1000 a month which is what the nicer buildings run and for a much smaller property.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 8 (11) – less coming on market

New Pendings of 13 (23) – but more selling with lower prices

Thats -5

Closed sales at 10 (23)

Total houses for sale 89 (54) with median of $1.829M ($2.375M).

Pendings not as high as last week but still doing OK and eating away at supply. As in MM we’ve had a lot less come on the market the last 5 weeks (50 this year vs 76 last year).

Demand is much lower than last year but new supply is also. Where it all goes will dictate price action next year. Will supply increase a lot come Spring or does the seller’s strike continue? TBD

We are 3 weeks from when discretionary seller’s typically start taking a break for the holidays

[sdrealtor]

New listings 16 (11) – biggest count in 3 months

New Pendings of 12 (21) – about the same its been

Thats +4

Closed sales at 15 (14)

Total houses for sale 93 (48) with median of $1.925M ($2.287M).

Slight increase in inventory and it seems most of its on the high end. One more week of typically flattish inventory and then should start seasonal decline

[sdrealtor]

New listings 8 (15) – back to normal

New Pendings of 9 (23) – about the same its been

Thats -1

Closed sales at 18 (20)

Total houses for sale 88 (47) with median of $1.925M ($2.5M).

Last November was a huge month that cleared out the inventory, this year not so much. We are got about 20% fewer new listings the first part of November this year vs last year but pendings are down about 50%.

This is the week we typically see the season decline in inventory begin in earnest. If past patterns hold we’ll end up the year with about half of what we have now.

We are in a very different market than we were six months ago but nothing is flashing red lights right now. The stock market seems to finding its balance and interest rates have come down a touch. So many things could change between Spring and now but Im just not seeing signs of a big panic at this time.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 (10) – back to normal

New Pendings of 18 (25) – bumped back up

Thats -12

Closed sales at 14 (13)

Total houses for sale 82 (36) with median of $1.9M ($2M).

This coming week last year pendings started falling off a cliff because there was nothing to buy. This year we have twice as much to buy. It will be intertesting to watch whether pendings hold up better with more out therer to buy. The 18 pendings we saw this week shows that could happen. I saw a few houses get sold this week that i thought would have to wait until next Spring to sell. It seems like there are some buyers who want in before the Spring surge begins. The drop in rates is feeding that also. Still no red lights flashing on my dashboard

[sdrealtor]

Back from the desert, catching up…

New listings 6 (5) – back to normal

New Pendings of 5 (14) – bumped back up

Thats +1

Closed sales at 5 (10)

Total houses for sale 85 (33) with median of $1.95M ($2.35M).

Well after pendings bumped up a lot two weeks ago last week they dropped back down. The 5 pendings in a week matches the lowest figure Ive seen since starting this monitor.

The drop in pendings along with what I will mention next led to an increase in active inventory at a time when it tradionally drops. Thats a little smoke in the market and will have to watch to see if fire follows.

One thing I noticed a couple weeks ago but didnt feel I had enough evidence to write about is fewer sellers seemed to be taking homes off for the holidays. I think I can call that a trend now and a slightly ominous one at that. I can think of two reasons for this. First with prices in decline and less selling, homesellers are less optimistic about waiting for Spring. Second with sales volume down there are hungry agents advising clients to keep trying. I think a little of both is at play here

[sdrealtor]

New listings 7 (10) –

New Pendings of 11 (15) –

Thats -4

Closed sales at 13 (31)

Total houses for sale 85 (33) with median of $1.99M ($2.675M).

Slow holiday activity but pendings did bump back up the past week, Inventory just treading water right now. Still not seeing much come off for the holidays here

As an aside last year anything under $2M sold quickly leaving mostly high end homes left on the market. Thats why the median was so much higher last year

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]New listings 19 (23) – highest count all year but still havent hit 20 yet. This time last year we had hit 30.

New Pendings of 25 (36) –

Thats -6

Closed sales at 18 –

Total houses for sale 29 (49) with median of $2.3M ($1.709M). Cheapest SFR is $1.285M and its actually a detached condo not a true SFR. Inventory still off about 40% as my hovel inches every closer

Every once in a while I see something that makes me stand up and take notice. This week a friend listed a beautiful property in Leucadia for $7M and it sold the first day. That means someone was waiting out there with $7M or more burning a hole in their pocket looking to buy their dream home. We never had buyers like that before. The world continues changing here faster and faster![/quote]

A little update on this last one. Apparently there was not a buyer waiting out there with $7M or more burning a hole in their pocket looking to buy their dream home. There were several! There was a bidding war and its in escrow way over asking price and listing agent is still getting calls about it.

Of note all the buyers/potential buyers were local to SD and winner is from Encinitas. Among the bidders were a LJ local that is downsizing from a much more expensive home they recently sold and a retired pro athlete. The laters agent shared that they have a whole bunch of retired/soon to be retired athletes looking to retire here also. This of course makes perfect sense as we have a beautiful place with great climate, great schools and they can can live in relative anonymity here with their families relative to staying where they played their careers. Most of these guys retire with $5 to 50M after relatively short careers. They will never make close to that money again and need to make it last nicely for the rest of their lives. This place is a great landing spot.

Im not saying there will be enough of guys/gals like this to carry the whole market but it is one more example of a growing category of resident that exists few places and will continue to support what is happening here.

[limkotir]

A lot of money and demand chasing too few goods. Going through the car buying process myself right now – different product but same story, but unlike cars and many consumer goods, you can just pump up the supply side of the equation to counter balance the demand.

$7M is quite out of reach for 99% of the public, but I wonder what is that sweet spot price that balances size, condition and the general area of the home to what you’re paying, if you guys know what I’m asking here — feels like $2.5M to $3M for these NCC homes tracked in this thread?

[sdrealtor]

Of course it’s out of reach for nearly all. It’s just bonkers that there are buyers fighting even at that level. I think I live in a pretty average home for this area on a bigger than most lot. The Zillow on my hovel just crossed $2m. I think that’s about the price give or take a little for a decent tract houses with at least 4 br and 3 ba that’s not a complete fixer. That’s crazy town

[flyer]

In all of my years as an investor, never thought I’d see anything like this–it’s great–but still wonder where it all goes from here. Very interesting.

[Coronita]

[quote=limkotir]A lot of money and demand chasing too few goods. Going through the car buying process myself right now – different product but same story, but unlike cars and many consumer goods, you can just pump up the supply side of the equation to counter balance the demand.

$7M is quite out of reach for 99% of the public, but I wonder what is that sweet spot price that balances size, condition and the general area of the home to what you’re paying, if you guys know what I’m asking here — feels like $2.5M to $3M for these NCC homes tracked in this thread?[/quote]

Now is an awful time to buy a car. I would strongly advise against it unless it’s absolutely necessary….You are going to bend over totally, unless you have a way to get employee discounting.

Even the used market is crazy.. I gauge inflation and craziness by the outlook of miatas.

[img_assist|nid=27554|title=miata1|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1000]

[img_assist|nid=27559|title=miata2|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1000]

Um… These use to be cheap autocross/rally/HPDE beater cars around $2k.

Granted these two examples appear to have been rebuilt and one has some nice engine upgrades…But still…..That isn’t even a built motor. It’s probably just a normal motor with a blower attached to it. That S3 turbo kit on the second car doesnt add like $10k to the car’s price.

Also honda just announced they are starting to offer certified preowned cars for cars 10 years old. lol.

Good thing I kept my old one after the new one. One day it will be worth more than all my POS german cars combined… Just need a few more kids to crash and total some more.

[gzz]

I purchased a mazda cx30 crossover at MSRP in September. They did a 3 year 0% loan too.

They basically would sell them within 2 days of arrival at the dealer. I just waited for one to pop up on their website, test drove it, bought it, made the salesman’s life easy as possible. He did try to charge an extra 2k market adjustment at first, but I moved on and called him back a week later and he changed his mind.

There’s no point in buying used now IMO if you can afford a new one.

I adore the car. Zero problems, and the best drive and interior out of the 6 I did test drives of and 15 I sat in. If you want a small CUV with awd, full leather, and drives like a car not an SUV, try it out.

[Coronita]

[quote=gzz]I purchased a mazda cx30 crossover at MSRP in September. They did a 3 year 0% loan too.

They basically would sell them within 2 days of arrival at the dealer. I just waited for one to pop up on their website, test drove it, bought it, made the salesman’s life easy as possible. He did try to charge an extra 2k market adjustment at first, but I moved on and called him back a week later and he changed his mind.

There’s no point in buying used now IMO if you can afford a new one.

I adore the car. Zero problems, and the best drive and interior out of the 6 I did test drives of and 15 I sat in. If you want a small CUV with awd, full leather, and drives like a car not an SUV, try it out.[/quote]

Ouch … MSRP? Mazdas use to sell below invoice. I had a cx5 priced $2k below invoice at the beginning of 2021, which was even been than S-plan friends and family pricing that you can get near ar invoice or a few hundred above. S-plan pricing is pretty easy to get. You just have to join Mazda Motorsports for free and you get parts at dealer cost and S-plan pricing on new cars. It’s not that hard to qualify for mazda motorsports membership. You just need to participate in one timed/result posted autocross/hpde event every two years and submit your proof you attended the event and finished. You don’t even need to drive a Mazda,it literally can be a beater car that barely crosses the finish line in a timed event. A simple autocross is like $80 but saves you hundreds if not thousand off a new car purchase because you can S-plan pricing and gets you parts at dealership cost.

I bought a brand new spare transmission from Mazda Motorsports for $1200, much less than any rebuild. $1200 for a new transmission is ridiculously cheap. That’s how much it costs just to replace a plastic valve cover on a BMW N55 engine, lol.

I’ve pretty much decided not to get a new car unless it’s electric. No point in getting an ICE car now. Plus I got a few to drive into the ground before I have from for another car, lol.

Hopefully, you shopped around with LA dealers too over the internet. Galpin Mazda sells cars well below other dealers because they are one of the largest dealers in SoCal. They are the ones that were going to give me way below invoice on the CX-5.

They have over 30 cx-30’s so they wheel and deal. Unlike miata’s where there’s no inventory and marked up.

https://www.galpinmazda.com/inventory/new-vehicles/models=Mazda_CX-30

[Coronita]

gzz, I hope you got the CX-30 carbon edition, because that’s the only one that is MSRP and it’s only available at Galpin. A quick 15 minute email to them, and they were able to get me MSRP for the carbon edition.

Otherwise, if you didn’t get a carbon edition, hopefully you didn’t get it at Escondido, because a quick 15 minutes, I got $1000 off msrp withour really trying that hard. I’m asking Galpin to beat or match…

Next time, let me help you with the negotiations…[img_assist|nid=27560|title=cx30|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1000]

(Actual salesman email deleted to protect the innocent)

[Coronita]

gzz, I hope you got the CX-30 carbon edition, because that’s the only one that is MSRP and it’s only available at Galpin. A quick 15 minute email to them, and they were able to get me MSRP for the carbon edition.

Otherwise, if you didn’t get a carbon edition, hopefully you didn’t get it at Escondido, because a quick 15 minutes, I got $1000 off msrp withour really trying that hard. I asked Galpin to beat or match to see what they have to say. They have 30 in stock and the longer one sits on the lot the more money they will lose, so I am pretty confident they will beat escondido to clear the inventory.

And that isn’t asking for the s-plan discount.

Next time, let me help you with the negotiations. I[img_assist|nid=27560|title=cx30|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1000]

(Actual salesman email deleted to protect the innocent)

[scaredyclassic]

Odometers just about to turn over 10k miles on the ebike.

[gzz]

I suppose now a hot new japanese CUV model at msrp might not be great. 6 months ago, it certainly was. The rav4 was consistently going for 5k over msrp.

I got premium awd. Basically the top non-turbo spec. I wanted specifically either a bright red, blue, or green car with white or light tan full leather.

Cx30 is a new and lower volume model than cx5 which is by far the most popular mazda.

2k under msrp just wasn’t happening, especially if you want a specific combo in a hot segment, and japanese make in California. I could have got $500 off, but the 36 month 0% was worth much more, about $1800 if my alternate investment is a tax free muni fund at 4%.

I first went to the Kearney Mesa dealer, which subsequently closed for renovations.

They had -40 CX5s in stock, and 0-4 of every other model. It was surreal.

The National City dealer I went with wasn’t quite as extreme, but still half of inventory was cx5, with a smattering of 3 sedans, 3 hatches, and less than 3 each of cx9, cx3, and mazda 6 sedan. Both places had zero cx30 in stock when I visited.

I feel that 2022 MSRPs went up and chip shortages lessened, so the giant premiums went away. Though my vehicle specifically didn’t seem to get much if a msrp bump, and they made awd standard.

[Coronita]

Regardless, Mazda’s are nice cars. In the long run $1000 more won’t matter anyway.

Toyotas are really expensive right now because of their reputation. You can drive a toyota most likely for 200k+ without any issues.

Mazda quality is getting way better. The quality isn’t the issue, is the availability of parts that will be of more concern because they are a smaller car company so a lot of parts are not cross-shared. It’s not nearly as bad as BMW’s but it’s not as good as sa y a Toyota because just by the number of cars under both their Toyota and Lexus brands

[sdrealtor]

[quote=gzz]I suppose now a hot new japanese CUV model at msrp might not be great. 6 months ago, it certainly was. The rav4 was consistently going for 5k over msrp.

I got premium awd. Basically the top non-turbo spec. I wanted specifically either a bright red, blue, or green car with white or light tan full leather.

Cx30 is a new and lower volume model than cx5 which is by far the most popular mazda.

2k under msrp just wasn’t happening, especially if you want a specific combo in a hot segment, and japanese make in California. I could have got $500 off, but the 36 month 0% was worth much more, about $1800 if my alternate investment is a tax free muni fund at 4%.

I first went to the Kearney Mesa dealer, which subsequently closed for renovations.

They had -40 CX5s in stock, and 0-4 of every other model. It was surreal.

The National City dealer I went with wasn’t quite as extreme, but still half of inventory was cx5, with a smattering of 3 sedans, 3 hatches, and less than 3 each of cx9, cx3, and mazda 6 sedan. Both places had zero cx30 in stock when I visited.

I feel that 2022 MSRPs went up and chip shortages lessened, so the giant premiums went away. Though my vehicle specifically didn’t seem to get much if a msrp bump, and they made awd standard.[/quote]

You actually go to the dealer? I thought you were a millenial

[flyer]

So true. We’re really into cars too, and, can’t believe what’s going on in that market either. Guess we should all be glad we “stocked up” when things in life were more reasonable.

Looking back, I’m really glad I encouraged friends and family who were sitting on the fence wrt to moving up or relocating to San Diego to do so a few years ago, and, looking at what’s going on now, they are very glad they did.

[evolusd]

sdrealtor – you see that one on Spar Ct for $1.5M that has a stripper pole? Ha! Went into escrow and fell out. Seems like a “deal”/sf given the area with a little money up front to improve some things (like removing the stripper pole).

[Pbranding]

Hello sdr. Thank you for this weekly info. Curious about your comment last week that Spring could be crazy again. Why do you think so? Hasn’t frenzy peaked already?

[sdrealtor]

Short answer. Because it always does. Longer answer. People love to buy real estate. Around here real estate goes up very quickly but comes down very slowly. It typically takes a year or two of a prolonged downturn to have any real impact on real estate prices. There are still multiple buyers for any home, no large scale construction and more buyers entering the market all the time. I don’t think we’ll see the kind of increases we saw the last year happening but it will still be a strong competitive market next Spring. Any real change will take much longer to come

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]More of the same

New listings 30 – little better but not close to whats needed

New Pendings of 32 – still a buyer for any decent listing!

Thats a -2 for the week.

Closed sales at 25

Price reductions at 1. Price reduced from $6.6M to $6.4M.

Total houses for sale down to 53 with median of $1.999M. (note: ran numbers earlier today and when I just rechecked before posting its already back down to 48)

In Sept a model match to my house sold for $1.24M with the best lot in the community (13,000 sq ft canyon view lot with pool and plenty of room to add pool house or ADU). Tonight a model match closed for 1.275M in poor condition with no upgrades since it was built in 99 on a small lot on a busy corner. These represent the same model but the best vs the worst home in my tract. Today the best one could go for close to 1.5M. The market has changed that much that fast.

We should have an even more compelling example soon There’s a house nearby that sold January 2020 for $1.34M. It came back on 13 months later and is in escrow with asking price of $1.679M. It went almost immediately. When it closes we will know how much the y-o-y appreciation has been with a matched pair. It should be at least 25%. I dont know what else to say.[/quote]

The house I was waiting for just closed. Here it is.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3280-Avenida-La-Cima-92009/home/6540371

Went into escrow Dec 2019 and closed mid Jan 2020 for $1.34M.

Went back on the market mid Feb 2021 with no changes made to the house at 1.699M

Closed yesterday for $1.725M just short of $400K appreciation in just over one year.

Thats 28.7% in about a year.

Lets call it 30% y-o-y. Thats not a stretch

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]More of the same

New listings 30 – little better but not close to whats needed

New Pendings of 32 – still a buyer for any decent listing!

Thats a -2 for the week.

Closed sales at 25

Price reductions at 1. Price reduced from $6.6M to $6.4M.

Total houses for sale down to 53 with median of $1.999M. (note: ran numbers earlier today and when I just rechecked before posting its already back down to 48)

In Sept a model match to my house sold for $1.24M with the best lot in the community (13,000 sq ft canyon view lot with pool and plenty of room to add pool house or ADU). Tonight a model match closed for 1.275M in poor condition with no upgrades since it was built in 99 on a small lot on a busy corner. These represent the same model but the best vs the worst home in my tract. Today the best one could go for close to 1.5M. The market has changed that much that fast.

We should have an even more compelling example soon There’s a house nearby that sold January 2020 for $1.34M. It came back on 13 months later and is in escrow with asking price of $1.679M. It went almost immediately. When it closes we will know how much the y-o-y appreciation has been with a matched pair. It should be at least 25%. I dont know what else to say.[/quote]

Tagging onto post from a year ago to show how much things have changed in a year. Last year we were in a tough inventory costrained market and now we have about half what we had then.

New listings 17 (30) – grateful my clients got a hoem a couple weeks ago hasnt been anyting close since

New Pendings of 15 (32) – nothing to buy and we should see some crazy closings soon

Thats a +2 for the week.

Closed sales at 17

Inventory at 31 (53) with median of 2.35M ($1.99M)

The house that sold for $1.24M last year would sell for $2.5M In a heartbeat if owner had the money to put about $200K into a proper remodel. He’s plodding along doing a lot of work on the yard himself and with friends but its 2.2 easy today.

Every once in a while something closes that makes me stand up and take notice. A year ago $1.24M got you a 5/3 2700 sq ft house built in 1999 needing a 200k remodel and exterior clean up on one of the premier lots (13k flat an usable canyon lot with pool) in one of the premier neighborhoods around here. Today that would be 2.5 with remodel

This is what you get today for that $1.45M

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/809-Summerhill-Ct-92024/home/6390262

A 4/2.5 1986 sq ft remodelled twin home built in 1986 with a decent yard. I dont know that anything could show the change better

[sdrealtor]

One more that astounds me. Make that 4 more. When I bought my first place in Encinitas I remember looking at these places. You could pick them up for about $125K to 135k. That was 25 years ago. This is now

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/287-Rosebay-Dr-92024/home/4097619

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/725-Teaberry-St-92024/home/4122105

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/220-Coneflower-St-92024/home/4097725

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/276-Fraxinella-St-92024/home/4097664

[flyer]

Those are astounding. Same thing in areas we’ve invested in. Properties we purchased for under $200K are now off the charts. Going back even further, parents bought in some prime areas for well under $100K. Definitely has been and still is amazing to watch San Diego become such a coveted destination.

[sdrealtor]

Stopped by broker open house around the corner today. Was talking to agent. House was listed yesterday. Already has 7 showings booked for Saturday that are all cash buyers. Bay Area

[The-Shoveler]

I was talking to a realtor in TV,

No way to verify but he said that last house he sold had 40 offers.

[Andrew32]

Appreciate the ongoing info Sdrealtor. We’re looking at S. Carlsbad for early 2021. Currently renting in PQ to test the area before buying and want a neighborhood that has more younger families and closer to the coast. In late 2017, we bid above asking in Encinitas and countered but the owner took an all-cash, no inspection, no contingency offer from someone else at the same price. Felt defeating and so we are only now exploring going for it again. And as a result, that has pushed us a little further north than we were originally looking.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Andrew32]Appreciate the ongoing info Sdrealtor. We’re looking at S. Carlsbad for early 2021. Currently renting in PQ to test the area before buying and want a neighborhood that has more younger families and closer to the coast. In late 2017, we bid above asking in Encinitas and countered but the owner took an all-cash, no inspection, no contingency offer from someone else at the same price. Felt defeating and so we are only now exploring going for it again. And as a result, that has pushed us a little further north than we were originally looking.[/quote]

Happy to help! Ive been in my home on the S Carlsbad/Encinitas border since it was built in 99 and Encinitas a few years before that. My guess is you were bidding on a 1 story in Encinitas. There are a lot of them and its one reason Encinitas has become such a magnet for downsizers and retirees relocating here as its also close to the beach and such a charming town. Here are a few tips.

Along the NCC 60 to 70% of what you are buying is land value. When you see a crappy old house on a nice lot in a nice location remember this.

92009 is actually complicated with a wide variety of neighborhoods nearly all good but feeding into the 3 different school districts. Take the time to become familiar with that. The good news is when I moved here the differences were much substantial than they are now and all are exceptional now IMO.

That leads to next point which is to consider southwest 92078 which borders Carlsbad, has some great neighborhoods with great homes and is more affordable.

Next point, consider moving up your timeline. Things are quietest between Mid October and Mid Jan. Thats is your best chance to get great home with less competition. What I consider my best sale ever and would put up against any sale along the NCC in the last 10+ years as the single best home and deal purchased on the open market by any agent was put together in late November.

Last point, we are blessed with a lot of very good, knowledgeable and ethical agents here. We also have a lot who arent. These are shark filled waters. Make sure you know who you are dealing with and that they are familiar with the agents they are dealing with.

With that said this is a phenomenal place to live and raise a family. I hope things work out well for you. Feel free to ask questions on this thread or privately if you prefer.

[Andrew32]

It was a 4/3 two story in Encinitas but came in more affordable bc it had a zero lot line on one side. Lots of privacy still and the previous owner was a G&E executive so the appliances and kitchen was unreal.

Thanks for the timeline advice. We’re currently looking at 92011 and 921009.

Thoughts on the upcoming Treviso phases at the end of Poinsettia? There is a 5/4 “next gen” floorplan that are all perimeter lots and the HOA/MR feels priced into the sticker price fairly.

[sdrealtor]

Gotcha and knowing Encinitas it had to be in one of a small handful of neighborhoods one of which I used to live in. For whatever reason people like writing Encinitas on their return address and they sell for a healthy premium over similar homes in adjacent 92009 despite using all the same local services including the same schools. It just is what it is.

I stopped by Treviso several months ago and liked the floorplans. It seemed like a more than fair value to get a newer home in 92011. I understand wanting new also as I bought new in 99 as did all my neighbors. It was great and there was a real comradery but understand this is a mobile place to live. In the first 5 years the house next door sold twice, my kids lost their best friends to relocation and some of what I romanticized about growing old with neighbors and kids did not come to be.

Also when Poinsettia opens up it could be a very busy thorofare. Right now there is a ton of traffic from San Marcos, Vista Shadowridge, Oceanside, Rancho Carillo and beyond that uses RSF/Olivenhain/Leucadia Blvd to get to the 5. A lot of that traffic could well end up on Poinsettia so I would put a big premium on getting a lot/location away from the noise and visual path of that.

Here is one more big consideration. For a nice, new home with a good location it looks like a very good value and it is right now. But I beleive appreciation over time will be below average due to lot sizes. When you buy a house you are essentially buying an expensive car on a prime parking space in Manhattan. Over time that parking space gets more valuable but the car depreciates unless you upgrade it or replace it. Homes are no different. It will hold its value as a newer home with a more modern floorplan on the low end of the price range in 92011 but in 15 to 20 years it will be an older home in need of remodelling on a small lot. As land becomes more scarce and valuable that is where the above average returns are likely to be.

Bottom line there is a lot to like about Treviso especially on the right lot/location but in the end it depends upon personal situation and goals.

One more note on timing with an anecdote. Lots of opinions get thrown around by agents many of which are dead wrong. One is that to move up you need to spend as much as 50% more than your current home to make it worthwhile. What you need to be is patient, smart and take advantage of seasonality.

Case in point, last Fall I sold a friend/clients 2200 sq ft 35 year old home on a busy neighborhood feeder street in 92011 and they upgraded to a 3700 20 year old home on a quiet cul de sac with a great view in 92011 for 10% more than the house they sold. The house they sold was very nice as he was in the kitchen/bath remodelling business but it was pretty maxed out. And here’s the kicker, they bought their new home with a contingency on selling their present home. It was an amazing feat to pull off and no way it would have happened anytime other than Fall. Thats the power of seasonality!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=The-Shoveler]I was talking to a realtor in TV,

No way to verify but he said that last house he sold had 40 offers.[/quote]

I ran into about 20 on a 1.2 house in 4S Ranch. I’d believe him but likely an exception with a very desirable house. The good ones always attract a crowd. Most likely realtor was chest pumping as if they had something to do with it. When you see that many it’s always the house and the market

[Reality]

[quote=The-Shoveler]
No way to verify but he said that last house he sold had 40 offers.[/quote]

In the first 5 minutes it was listed to boot!

[evolusd]

Thx for the update, sdr. Sorry to hear about the crash! On the bright side, new car!

[sdrealtor]

My pleasure and thx. Car (Tesla Model 3) wasnt that old and Id get another just like it. May have saved my life and the driver that pulled out in front of me

[Escoguy]

Also glad you are safe, my wife has VIN 3333 on her 3.
Perhaps consider a Y.

Also appreciate the added commentary.

You are right, buyers are coming in hot out there. After we contracted in 92127 4S, two came on the market and were both gone in days, one 30K above list and another listed (same floor plan as ours) at 23K higher and probably went for 10-15K above list.

Can’t always predict when that will happen. The real number of days on the market was like 3 as it just took time to sort the bids.

[profhoff]

Wondering how all this activity will impact west of 5/east of 5 values.

I’m wondering what all you real estate experts think about what will happen to east of 5 property values?

West of 5 is skyrocketing – I mean there are properties on Eolus in the high two – three millions!

Del Mar Heights is solidly at $3m+ for the fancy flips.

Cardiff homes near the composer district are flying off the shelf in mid-two millions.

Will this *permanently* influence values east of 5, or is east of 5 a bubble waiting to pop?

New construction off Urania near Leucadia Blvd and east of 5 is almost mid-2s. Shea just listed the model off Leucadia Blvd just north of Urania for $2.

Even Caudor, Sparta area is getting pretty pricey.

For as long as I can remember (decades and decades), west of 5 is like a meditation mantra for North County Coastal real estate.

Will the current real estate situation change that?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=profhoff]Wondering how all this activity will impact west of 5/east of 5 values.

I’m wondering what all you real estate experts think about what will happen to east of 5 property values?

West of 5 is skyrocketing – I mean there are properties on Eolus in the high two – three millions!

Del Mar Heights is solidly at $3m+ for the fancy flips.

Cardiff homes near the composer district are flying off the shelf in mid-two millions.

Will this *permanently* influence values east of 5, or is east of 5 a bubble waiting to pop?

New construction off Urania near Leucadia Blvd and east of 5 is almost mid-2s. Shea just listed the model off Leucadia Blvd just north of Urania for $2.

Even Caudor, Sparta area is getting pretty pricey.

For as long as I can remember (decades and decades), west of 5 is like a meditation mantra for North County Coastal real estate.

Will the current real estate situation change that?[/quote]

Sold a good friend a place west of 5 in Encinitas around 2011. I’d put the deal against anything anyone has bought in the last 10 years along NCC as the best anyone got anywhere. Paid just over $1m and it’s now well over $3m. It’s also not replicable anywhere around here. Literally a gated estate that looks like it could be in Brentwood.

East of the five is just as hot. Maybe some minor retracement at some point but not coming down in a big way. I’ve been predicting this for years. This place has fundamentally changed and been discovered by the masses. Wait till the new hotel opens and really rich people find out what’s here. Hope you were well advised over the years and got yourself something great too

[profhoff]

We did, sdrealtor! We finally did. But I will say it took a lot of preparation. It also helped to have four years of experience looking and losing out on offers to snag the perfect one when it finally hit.

[profhoff]

I also think you are right, sdrealtor, that as the masses come and discover the unique charms of Encinitas, they’ll buy what they can afford to buy to grab a little piece of the magic.

The I-5 won’t have the same connotation to them that it does to locals and I think the “wrong side of the tracks” perception will largely fade away.

Also agree that the “barefoot luxury” the new Alila Marea Beach Resort represents will be a real game changer for Leucadia, in particular.

https://www.alilahotels.com/about-alila/upcoming-developments/alila-marea

[sdrealtor]

[quote=profhoff]I also think you are right, sdrealtor, that as the masses come and discover the unique charms of Encinitas, they’ll buy what they can afford to buy to grab a little piece of the magic.

The I-5 won’t have the same connotation to them that it does to locals and I think the “wrong side of the tracks” perception will largely fade away.

Also agree that the “barefoot luxury” the new Alila Marea Beach Resort represents will be a real game changer for Leucadia, in particular.

https://www.alilahotels.com/about-alila/upcoming-developments/alila-marea%5B/quote%5D

We are on the same page. It’s not just Encinitas. The NCC from Del Mar through Carlsbad is all very special and in this same trajectory IMO. That new resort will attract Hollywood elite, pro athletes, corporate execs and billionaires will be guests at this place with their families. SD is a world class destination and this resort will represent the single best beach resort here. I think it’s gonna be a home run for the area despite local old time opposition. It’s funny that the Sea Bluffe folks view it as a threat. It could triple their property values over the next twenty years if not sooner

Congrats on your new home and glad to hear your heels are dug in

[gzz]

I feel a sense of calmness being very close to the ocean. I don’t even go to the beach much anymore, but the sense of calmness and contentedness is worth a premium.

Seeing people walk by on the sidewalk excited to be headed to the beach is also nice.

Speaking of 17,000sq ft lots, there was a lot in the residential section of Newport Ave to the east of Ebers street that was 17,500sq ft, and it sold for $4.7 million!

It has a commanding ocean view and a great location, walking distance to Newport’s business district, but two blocks of quiet SFH area as a buffer.

Still, that price is quite high compared to other sales.

[svelte]

Happy Holidays sdr. Thanks for the reports from the trenches.

[sdrealtor]

Thanks and my pleasure. Same to you and yours!

[barnaby33]

Sometimes it’s more than just money.

Yeah, even more money!
Josh

[gzz]

So less than a 0.5 month supply!

Inventory still plumbing new lows in my zip code. Current non-pending MLS is 9 houses 1 condo.

Exactly 10 years ago it was 49 houses and 56 condos.

That’s more extreme than most zips, but Mira Mesa and Kensington also has an inventory decline of more than 90% v 10 years ago.

[sdrealtor]

OB is tough as it is so thinnly traded. A few houses either way can really swing the trends.

There is virtually 0 months supply up here. Anything sitting on the market more than a few days is super high end, has issues. is horribly overpriced or a combination of the three. The current median of $2.4M for actives tells that story as the median of sold homes the last 30 days is $1.25M

I just looked at the 54 SFR’s on the market. Only 9 are below $1.4M and 6 of those 9 are on the market a handful of days so should be sold soon. Overall 22 0f the 54 actives have been on the market a week or less

[gzz]

Here’s a fairly priced house in 92107 (Point Loma Heights section):

https://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-210001203-4045-Narragansett-San-Diego-CA-92107

I bet it will go above list, possibly 50k+ more.

Interesting that 7 of the 9 SFH listings are all clustered in the narrow 2 to 2.3M range. The other two are 1.15 and 1.3.

[gzz]

2020 volume in OB/PL went way up, even more than prices.

92106: # of SFH sales 2019 to 2020:180 to 226, +25%
$ of sales,$240m to 340m +42%.

92107: 143 to 172 SFH sales, $178m to $233m $ sales volume, +20% and +31%.

[gzz]

Janet and Jerome say NO to high rates, GSE bonds Nom Nom Nom.

[gzz]

25% is very possible! CAR data:

“ Statewide, the median price last month was $699,890, compared to $717,930 in December — down 3%. In January 2020, the median price was $575,160, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 22%.”

[ncsd760]

Is anyone surprised at the number of 1 Channel Island and Coral Cove resales compared to say Maravu/Bay Laurel? (I always thought Coral Cove was *somewhat* analogous to Bay Laurel and 1 Channel was *somewhat* analogous to Maravu though I think the Bay Laurel and Maravu lots are much better). I know there are people who bought in Maravu and Bay Laurel circa 2009-2014ish who are sitting on more equity than those who bought new from Shea.

Also raised eyebrows at the Sandalwood (Shea Encinitas) recent listing flood…I think some of those prices are a little ambitious compared to 1 Channel or average-to-Restoration Hardware’d out Lynwood/Cypress Hls houses…though whoever got Hidden Ridge for $1.8ish is probably feeling good.

[sdrealtor]

I think Sandalwood location and view is superior to 1 Channel and Enc Ranch by a good margin.They have the best lots and location which is worth far more than a nicer house around here. I live very close by and remember when they were built. For my eye it is the premier tract built home community in Encinitas. Over the last 20 years sales up there have always seemed to come in bunches. While 3 came on the last few months I dont view it as anything unusual. They do seem to be pushing prices a bit though up there.

1 Channel is now about 5-6 years old. Thats a timeframe where you always see some turnover. There have been 4 listings in the last 6 months. They are going for 50%+ original prices and when someone gets a big number neighbors take note. The area also had some recent drama. Rich people move to Encinitas/Leucadia and dont always look around much. Its funky in a lot of ways that just doesnt always suit the fancy pants crowd over time.

Coral Cove had 2 listings the last 6 months. Hardly a flood and it too is at the 5-6 year mark. There should be turnover. A good portion were bought as vacation homes and those that didnt use them as much as they thought or want to upgrade will be among those moving on. Nothing unusual or suprising here either

Maravu/Bay Laurel already had their their big turnover years ago. Most of the folks there now are more settled in for the long run. No surprise there is less turnover in them. BTW sandalwood new was 600ish new IIRC

And welcome to circus.

[profhoff]

What is the big drama in Channel Island? We were in escrow on a house in there last year or year before, I can’t remember. Anyway, during disclosures, the seller (also the LA) disclosed that the neighbor to the east played music on the weekends that you could hear in the backyard. So we went by one weekend and boy, was it noisy! So, we cancelled escrow and it ended up selling the next selling cycle.

Now I see the noisy house was on the market and went pending quick for an eye-popping price. The listing remarks comment on the “restaurant-quality” sound system. The backyard on the noisy house is amazing – definitely built for serious entertaining.

We also considered another house in Channel Island but the backyard had an unpermitted loggia. That came back on the market this year and went pending recently. Not super quick, but quick enough.

I noticed the Sandalwood recent listing. Looks nice.

We ended up in a nice newer smaller semi-custom development in Leucadia that so far has no drama and is surrounded by funky town, which we love.

[ncsd760]

Long time Piggington browser, recentish Leucadian. I’ll bite and say that some of the more pretentious or more conservative-skewing crowd (based anecdotally on convos with friends, their parents who also own in the area, and people I know who have passed on either 1Channel Island or Saxony Condos for explicitly this reason) are unhappy about the houseless persons parking lot on Saxony where people living out of their cars can park on the Leichtag property overnight. Frankly, it would not bother me and I think it’s sort of naive to expect all this land to either be undeveloped forever or only developed for houses well-off people can afford without concessions to the worse-off. Maybe that’s me being a hippie.

We too are now living in a smaller newish (~Y2k) Leucadia area and we indeed love “funky town” though I would say about half our friends would rather have more *house* space in Encinitas Ranch/The Ranch/La Costa Oaks for the +/- highish 1mms or low 2mms. There are people who couldn’t care less about being walking v. driving distance to the beach and majority non-chain restaurants and I couldn’t blame them for not wanting to pay the premium for less house. Even heard an acquaintance get drunk at a get-together a few years ago and confess that they could never do Leucadia because they wanted a strong HOA. We also have no amenities (golf, pool, tennis) so if that is your jam better go east.

Also candidly if we had school-age kids it would be stupid to not want to pick a La Costa Valley, The Ranch, Arroyo Vista, Santa Trails area where they can walk to school K-6 or even K-12 versus having to drive to Capri or Paul Ecke and now even middle school (head hurts trying to remember OakCrest or Diegueno–feel like you flip a coin LOL) since there is no longer a bus.

As always it’s different strokes for different folks. Having done the La Costa area thing when kids were younger it has an undeniable appeal to have the children walking distance to K-12 and at least at the time ECC and OPE (and maybe the one by Sonata) and Diegueno were the best schools hands down. Now that our family is aged up the appeal is much less so but we are very beachy folk and not golfers or horse fans in the slightest.

[ncsd760]

Also proffhoff I know all of those houses! How funny. We considered 1Channel when new at multiple points and were on the Shea interest/priority list. Some terrible lots and some phenomenal ones but isn’t that always the story. We tend to be annoyingly picky so did not get an opportunity for a lot we adored though came close. The new zealand style reminded me of Maravu when I first saw them and that neighborhood is special to me.

I love the floorplan of the unpermitted loggia house (the 3273 sf plan – I think “plan three”). I think they also had some ocean view from the front which I liked. Lot of resales on the lower half of the tract off Saxony since new and much fewer up top on the Quail entrance which is about how the interest list went too in terms of demand.

[sdrealtor]

Thank you both for chiming in and welcome to the neighborhood. I agree with pretty much everything you said.

Ive always considered the various communities of Encinitas and La Costa as pretty much different shades of the same place as we all eat, drink, shop, send our kids to school, see same doctors etc. I’ve lived in both over the years. But there are definitely a menagerie of folks around here.

Its funny because most of the complaining comes from new arrivals who view this as an upscale, expensive beautiful community while ignoring what is plain to see. This is a funky place and the long timers like it that way. Ive been here almost 30 years but dont consider myself a local and likely never will. Thats my next door neighbor who is 3rd generation Encinitas.

Leucadia is definitely another world than over the hill where I am and I envy you being there. For a variety of reasons (taxes, Ive got one of the bigger lots in LCV and frankly I like it here) Im dug in here. But I would happily reside west of 5 if not for those things. Hope you are enjoying it all!

With all that said, following inventory as closely as I have have for decades it feels like supply is down almost 50% from where it typically is. That is compounded by demand being much higher than ever. I wouldnt read much into any short term fluctuations you see as there are many buyers for every home. I’ll continue tracking my numbers as I have for many years and if there is any wind of change I’ll see it coming

oh and Ithose prime one channel lots probably went to friends and family of the builder. They always do

[profhoff]

Fun thread. When Channel Island opened up we went and got on the list, but were too far down for the list when the first lots off Quail Gardens came online. However, I called every week to see where I was and remarkably plenty of people came on and off that list. And we got offered a lot but didn’t like it. Then one day we got a call that the buyer on one of the west facing ocean lots fell through they offered it to us.

The problem was that the useable backyard was tiny compared to the ones on the side with the SW views and it kept getting smaller as they continued to mark the lots. It was the house directly south of what became the fire lane between the Saxony part of the tract and the Quail Gardens part of the tract. Plus, it was a big house and so the little backyard seemed out of balance.

Anyway, we didn’t buy it, but it goes to show that persistence can pay off.

[sdrealtor]

Yes lots of fun talking about this micro market. I had a couple clients interested in Channel island and went opening day. It was craziest release Ive ever seen. Cars parked all over Quail Gardens and there were traffic cops directing traffic.

To get a house there you had to register very early and be fully pre-qualified by their lender just to get on the list. I think you answered your own question on that one lot also. Overbuilt house on a small lot next to fire road with perceived lack of privacy made it less desireable up on that ridge.

The most premium lots not only have a view but room outside to build outdoor amenities to enjoy it. After that I’d put large non-view lots unimpaired by road noise above a view lot with a very small lot. I did some cross checking and as expected the community has a healthy share of people in real estate, building supplies, lending, building supplies and an attorney that worked for the builder. Its also hard to determine casual relationships to the builder but Im sure there were few also. The higher price point may have kept it from going all that way but there was plenty of that.

I learned this the hard way 15 years ago. I was #1 on the priority list for the Centex tract in LC Oaks and deferred for a specific lot. It was an oversized lot with the house positioned such that it had a good size backyard and an equally sized side yard that had an ocean view but was not priced for that view. Plan was to build kids yard in back and adults yard on the side. When I went to the release it was supposed to be in, I was told it was already gone to “friends & family” of the builder as were some other primo lots. In the long run it was probably better that I stayed put so no love lost there but thats the way the game is played.

Arroyo Vista was probably the most egregious example of that. The builder, Continental was sold mid stream to DR Horten. Continental execs and employees grabbed all the best lots and there were some really big exceptional ones there. Not only that, but knowing they were all gonna buy there they raised the bar on standard upgrades far above anythng seen prior as they knew they would get those for free themselves. Im sure a bunch of em are still hanging out there though many moved on sice making a relative killing when they resold.

[ncsd760]

Yes very fun talking about this niche little market and I am glad I finally made an account here after reading these chats for 10 years or so.

I was disappointed with the lot size of some of the due west facing 1 Channel houses as well profhoff. We didn’t get a Plan 2 (bigger ranch plan) or Plan 3 and just ended up biting the bullet and moving fully west of 5 but east of the 101 where it is walkable and close to our favorite eats in funky town but a bit quieter than living west of 101. Our house is sub 3000sf but that is fine for us.

sdr we were original LCO residents so I am embarrassingly familiar w the plans and lots though we didn’t adore living in LCO for many reasons most of which have to do with the fact that we didn’t have elementary age kids when we lived there, we really wanted Encinitas or a more mature/smaller/less sterile La Costa tract, and that we didn’t end up liking our lot or plan though we got a killer deal. Those Centex and Davidson center courtyard plans in the “OG” Oaks are lovely and I also like the Arroyo Vista courtyard plan that has a master down.

I think LCV where you are sdrealtor feels infinitely closer to shopping and dining that I personally frequent and the leasing people screwed the La Costa Town Square shopping center with odd stores and generally meh restaurants. Also disappointed by Arterro homes that of course, we considered remembering the Davidson/Starboard hype in the Oaks. 2015 me was not willing to pay low 1mms to back to the butt end of a Super Vons and hear road noise on minuscule lots especially coming from the Oaks and being indifferent about the area.

We actually considered buying the former model of the Arroyo Vista center courtyard plan when it came up for sale in 2015. It had a blank canvas yard to hardscape and drop in a pool. We backed away because we recalled from our Diegueno and OPE days that all the parents park on that entry Arroyo Vista street to drop off and pick up their kids and we are too OCD to handle someone’s big Suburban parked in front of our house 2x a day 5x a week. I think that house resold recently. Embarrassed to have followed all these communities closely but it’s so interesting to see the area change and a memory trip to recall past purchases/offers/etc.

[profhoff]

ncsd760 – it is so fun to think about all the real estate we’ve trudged through over the years. We looked for almost 4 years to find the “right” house and I used to joke with our long-suffering agent that she would “fire” us. But we did make offers! And we did get into escrow! We just couldn’t get it to stick.

The place we finally bought is east of 5 – but it checks every other box and then some. We realized we really loved Leucadia and “funky town” and didn’t want to venture too far.

As soon as renovations are done, we’ll be selling our current house. I wonder what the market will look like in May? Will it slow down? Will there be even more frenzy? Realistically, how high can things go? And rates are already creeping up.

What does sdrealtor’s crystal ball say about the <$1.5m market in SW Carlsbad?

[sdrealtor]

En Feugo and its not <1.5M. I think I remember which community you live in and one just closed off market for 1.575M at #6992. Not sure if similar to what you have or not but things down there are north of 1.5 now. Interesting also that you mentioned "she" as IIRC your perhaps now prior agent was a he

[profhoff]

Agent that sold us the c’bad house 8 years ago was a he. Started working with a diff agent about 4+ years ago once we got serious about finding a “coastal retreat suitable for eventual retirement.” She’s intimately familiar with the NCC area.

Yeah, 6992 Sweetwater closed for $1.575m and that had the hell buffed out of it. We’re a model match, but sellers did a boffo remodel and it sold instantly. That price was a shocker.

But wait, there’s more! 616 Saltgrass (bigger model and nice but not as buffed as 6992) just closed for $1.575m – $80k over list. Also went pending quick.

So, with comps like that, I don’t see anything listing in here that doesn’t start with $1.5Xm, do you?

Late last year, sales were in the $1.4xm range.

WOW WOW WOW.

[profhoff]

I love to see the updates. Here’s one that popped my eyes out:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/2583-White-Owl-Dr-92024/home/4178611?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=listings_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD01NDAyOSZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19kYWlseV8yNCZhPWNsaWNrJnM9c2F2ZWRfc2VhcmNoJnQ9dmlld19kZXRhaWxzJmVtYWlsX2lkPTU0MDI5XzE2MTUwMjUxMDdfMTQmdXBkYXRlX3R5cGU9NyZzYXZlZF9zZWFyY2hfaWQ9Mzg5NDE3ODImbGlzdGluZ19pZD0xMjc3NTcwNzkmcHJvcGVydHlfaWQ9NDE3ODYxMSZwb3NpdGlvbl9udW1iZXI9Ng==

Pending in 4 days and closed for $200k+ over list.

[Anonymous]

Good for you, profhoff!

[profhoff]

Thanks, JtR! It’s been a wild ride. Super glad you convinced us not to bail on the Waters End house 3 days before closing when we discovered they wrecked the floors dragging out the fridge. Remember that?

[Anonymous]

>Remember that?

Yes, profhoff and I also remember the refinished hardwood floors which should be an attractive feature for resale. Today’s buyers gladly pay a premium for perfection. Aim high.

[profhoff]

Good times. This was “coming soon” for a day at $1.99m, but I guess the LA had so many desperate calls, they decided to list it after a quick teaser day, but not before adding another $100k to the price, just for fun!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/1059-Summer-Holly-Ln-92024/home/4174583?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=instant_listings_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD01NDAyOSZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19pbnN0YW50XzE1JmE9Y2xpY2smcz1zYXZlZF9zZWFyY2gmdD12aWV3X2RldGFpbHMmZW1haWxfaWQ9NTQwMjlfMTYxNTgyNjA5Ml8yJnVwZGF0ZV90eXBlPTEmc2F2ZWRfc2VhcmNoX2lkPTM4OTQxNzgyJmxpc3RpbmdfaWQ9MTI5NTY3Njk5JnByb3BlcnR5X2lkPTQxNzQ1ODMmcG9zaXRpb25fbnVtYmVyPTA=

[profhoff]

This is so much fun. DMH oldie but apparently renovated goodie listed a few days ago at $2.5m, but I guess the LA realized the pricing error and added a couple hundred thousand because why not? Now a steal at $2.7m…

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Del-Mar/14043-Durango-Dr-92014/home/4424916?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=recommendations_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD01NDAyOSZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19yZWNvbW1lbmRhdGlvbnMmYT1jbGljayZzPXJlY29tbWVuZGF0aW9ucyZ0PXZpZXdfZGV0YWlscyZlbWFpbF9pZD01NDAyOV8xNjE1ODQ2ODU5XzYmdXBkYXRlX3R5cGU9MyZsaWxyX3Njb3JlPTAuNjMxJmxpc3RpbmdfaWQ9MTI5NTQ1MzI3JnByb3BlcnR5X2lkPTQ0MjQ5MTYmcG9zaXRpb25fbnVtYmVyPTA=

[profhoff]

JtR – aiming as high as the market will allow!

[sdrealtor]

In this kind of market, aim is less important than having the home ready in great shape and easy to see. Get it on the market a couple days before the weekend, schedule The maximum amount of showings you can on Saturday and Sunday then review offers Monday night. The market will take care of the rest. Just field offers, show the buyers a level of respect and they will take great care of you

[gzz]

Re last undeveloped lots in Encinitas, I nearly purchased a plant nursery undeveloped lot in 2011. I recall it was bordering the 5 and maybe .6 acres, I forgot which side.

Basically my screen on zillow was large lots and low price near the coast.

I got a large underdeveloped lot in OB instead. The correct answer in retrospect was “¿Porque no los dos?”

[sdrealtor]

[quote=gzz]Re last undeveloped lots in Encinitas, I nearly purchased a plant nursery undeveloped lot in 2011. I recall it was bordering the 5 and maybe .6 acres, I forgot which side.

Basically my screen on zillow was large lots and low price near the coast.

I got a large underdeveloped lot in OB instead. The correct answer in retrospect was “¿Porque no los dos?”[/quote]

Those lots always struggle and always will relative to others. The freeway widening certainly wont help. I think you made the right call of the two

[profhoff]

sdrealtor – regarding lots basically ON the 5 struggling, have you seen this? Another head exploding listing. Your backyard is literally the 5 freeway. $1.8m. Let’s see how long it takes to go pending. $1.8m on Portofino!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Del-Mar/13639-Portofino-Dr-92014/home/4438364

[sdrealtor]

Yes the Cannon property is the one I heard was slated for senior care facility. Jackel was the one I was referencing for more condos, hotel etc.

Crazy on Portofino but DM is a bit different as they sit well above the freeway. In Encinitas you are down in a hole. If you are South of Leucadia Blvd may have to deal with Cottonwood creek watershed issues on the far south end. Personally Id stay away from those types of property unless it was for commercial development.

One Im looking forward to watching is the Echter property across from ER golf course. Really one of kind development slated for that

[sdrealtor]

One of the One Channel homes just closed $65K over top end of range price

[profhoff]

No doubt it was the restaurant quality sound system!

[ncsd760]

And the tiniest plan there is now coming soon for $1.9 on the no-view side right up against the driveway to the custom homes…odds it hits $2m or above?

Also wonder how much the new LCV original condition timewarp goes for. What’s stopping a fully gutted version of that for going for $1.8?

All wild to think about.

[sdrealtor]

I just dont see that getting to $2M and the 1.9 looks like a stretch to me. Last 1 story sale was late Summer at 1.9 for the bigger floor plan and with nice pool added. That was about 200K more from builder plus cost of pool. That one had some saxony noise but this one has no yard and no view. Id go 1.75 but who knows the bounds of the insanity right now particuarly for a newer one story in Encinitas relatiely close to beach.

Im gonna go with 1.575-1.6 for that LCV one. I think VLN is one of the nicest streets here and to have a nice size yard like that on that side of the street adds value. I also prefer the Plan 3 over the Plan 4 up there as a better design.

Its just nuts and I dont love it when prices get this high. This neighborhood is so attractive to young families and having prices as high as they are tends to bring in older families and folks. The young families really should be the life blood of this place.

[ncsd760]

I agree that prices this high really change the character in some of the tracts myself and people who grew up here would consider “family areas”. Those areas are made for young families with kids and I don’t see people like that being able to buy in here as much. Some of the original LCO and LCV families got those as first or second homes (as families) …teachers etc could live in those communities…just unsure what that dynamic is now.

Even looking at areas like Village Park or Rancho Ponderosa where we had “starters” those prices are so high for young families. Where do the younger folks go ?

[profhoff]

Hurry! Reviewing offers in 7 hours and 25 minutes! This Cardiff twinhome sold 8 months ago for $1.565m. Now offered for $1.95m. Renovated BEFORE the 8 month sale…

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cardiff/2129-Montgomery-Ave-92007/home/4140065

Insane.

[profhoff]

ncsd760 – have you seen this one that just popped up on Fulvia? $4.6m. 1/2 acre. Still time to customize! No vu. Doesn’t it flood there?

https://www.compass.com/listing/437-fulvia-street-encinitas-ca-92024/735638314903305793/

[ncsd760]

[quote=profhoff]ncsd760 – have you seen this one that just popped up on Fulvia? $4.6m. 1/2 acre. Still time to customize! No vu. Doesn’t it flood there?

https://www.compass.com/listing/437-fulvia-street-encinitas-ca-92024/735638314903305793/%5B/quote%5D

Yes this area definitely floods and a cynic in me wants to say there may be freeway noise from this spot as well. The home isn’t even that big to be honest, and I’d rather have a simple 1 bedroom ADU and perhaps more yard?

Also – the ADU looks mighty close to the butt end of the main house. I would rather the builder just wait for me to decide how big of a ADU unit (and where) I want it….not my speed. Someone will gush over it.

[sdrealtor]

Wow, just looked at that. It that’s anything close to 4.5m my client is over 5m

[profhoff]

Fasten your seat belts. We are in for a wild spring!

[sdrealtor]

profhoff, the market feels like its popped about 20% since last Summer many places in SD

[sdrealtor]

NCSD
Yes its quite the quandry. I bought my first townhome inSeagate Village and moved up to LCV 20 years ago. My neighbors here at the time included firemen, park rangers and my kids Kindergarten teacher at ECC. Thats just not possible anymore for most.

In the absence of super high paying tech jobs or family help I think the answer comes down to two key things. First and foremost, your first purchase is the key and its best if possible to make that one in a downturn. Then you are on the train and can ride values back up building equity you can leverage 4X. Second, while it was possible to get to that that forever home in 2 steps its likely gonna take 3 or even 4 to get there. The game has changed and its possible for young families to get there. They just need to be patient and be well advised.

[Hobie]

Would any of you know if there are any plans for the vacant land E of 5– South of La Costa Ave, east of Piraeus, and north of Sky Loft.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Hobie]Would any of you know if there are any plans for the vacant land E of 5– South of La Costa Ave, east of Piraeus, and north of Sky Loft.[/quote]

last I heard someone was tryig to build a senior facility there (assisted living/skilled nursing)

[profhoff]

Hobie – if I’m not mistaken, the property you are talking about is referred to as the “Cannon Property (Piraeus site)” and sometimes “Project 2” in Encinitas docs.

http://encinitas.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=7&clip_id=1771&meta_id=88933

There are not that many sites left, so it’s going to be interesting to see how Encinitas builds out.

[ncsd760]

Sitio Corazon wants a 100k pop since July. I think they’ll get it and then some. $839k new in Oct 2012.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7141-Sitio-Corazon-92009/home/22391458

[sdrealtor]

FWIW, new comes without paint, window treatments, ladndscape/hardscape etc. Figure minimum another 100K plus. This probably goes 1.5ish

[ncsd760]

This is insane

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/348-Fulvia-St-Encinitas-CA-92024/318293975_zpid/

3.81 for the worst lot.

[profhoff]

Stunning. Pending in 4 days and apparently multiple offers to sell over list.

Maybe this will stimulate long time owners to cash out, though I don’t know where they will go.

Then we could venture a prediction that funky town gets luxe with multi-million dollar renovations. Could be a different place in as little as five years.