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sdrealtor.
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August 12, 2020 at 4:30 PM #22976August 12, 2020 at 4:40 PM #819191
sdrealtor
ParticipantLate Summer and the market should be snoozing.
New listings 31 same as last week.
Very much in line with what we have been seeing since mid-June.
New Pendings down to 31 way down from 55 last week
Thats the lowest count since Mid/late May. Inventory is way down and choices are very limited. The end of Summer seasonality should be showing up also. Will be of note to follow where it goes from here
Net-net inventory may have bottomed and it should start climbing a tad after ten consecutive weeks of falling inventory around my 3 zips.
Closed sales at 37 the high point since early April and reflects all the frenzy of last few months.
Price reductions at 15 which is pretty much where its been or lower. Sellers know the market is hot.
Total houses for sale 121
August 13, 2020 at 7:02 AM #819197The-Shoveler
ParticipantI was talking to a realtor in TV,
No way to verify but he said that last house he sold had 40 offers.
August 13, 2020 at 9:10 AM #819199Andrew32
ParticipantAppreciate the ongoing info Sdrealtor. We’re looking at S. Carlsbad for early 2021. Currently renting in PQ to test the area before buying and want a neighborhood that has more younger families and closer to the coast. In late 2017, we bid above asking in Encinitas and countered but the owner took an all-cash, no inspection, no contingency offer from someone else at the same price. Felt defeating and so we are only now exploring going for it again. And as a result, that has pushed us a little further north than we were originally looking.
August 13, 2020 at 10:26 AM #819203Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]I was talking to a realtor in TV,
No way to verify but he said that last house he sold had 40 offers.[/quote]
I ran into about 20 on a 1.2 house in 4S Ranch. I’d believe him but likely an exception with a very desirable house. The good ones always attract a crowd. Most likely realtor was chest pumping as if they had something to do with it. When you see that many it’s always the house and the market
August 13, 2020 at 11:50 AM #819204Participant[quote=Andrew32]Appreciate the ongoing info Sdrealtor. We’re looking at S. Carlsbad for early 2021. Currently renting in PQ to test the area before buying and want a neighborhood that has more younger families and closer to the coast. In late 2017, we bid above asking in Encinitas and countered but the owner took an all-cash, no inspection, no contingency offer from someone else at the same price. Felt defeating and so we are only now exploring going for it again. And as a result, that has pushed us a little further north than we were originally looking.[/quote]
Happy to help! Ive been in my home on the S Carlsbad/Encinitas border since it was built in 99 and Encinitas a few years before that. My guess is you were bidding on a 1 story in Encinitas. There are a lot of them and its one reason Encinitas has become such a magnet for downsizers and retirees relocating here as its also close to the beach and such a charming town. Here are a few tips.
Along the NCC 60 to 70% of what you are buying is land value. When you see a crappy old house on a nice lot in a nice location remember this.
92009 is actually complicated with a wide variety of neighborhoods nearly all good but feeding into the 3 different school districts. Take the time to become familiar with that. The good news is when I moved here the differences were much substantial than they are now and all are exceptional now IMO.
That leads to next point which is to consider southwest 92078 which borders Carlsbad, has some great neighborhoods with great homes and is more affordable.
Next point, consider moving up your timeline. Things are quietest between Mid October and Mid Jan. Thats is your best chance to get great home with less competition. What I consider my best sale ever and would put up against any sale along the NCC in the last 10+ years as the single best home and deal purchased on the open market by any agent was put together in late November.
Last point, we are blessed with a lot of very good, knowledgeable and ethical agents here. We also have a lot who arent. These are shark filled waters. Make sure you know who you are dealing with and that they are familiar with the agents they are dealing with.
With that said this is a phenomenal place to live and raise a family. I hope things work out well for you. Feel free to ask questions on this thread or privately if you prefer.
August 13, 2020 at 12:01 PM #819207ParticipantIt was a 4/3 two story in Encinitas but came in more affordable bc it had a zero lot line on one side. Lots of privacy still and the previous owner was a G&E executive so the appliances and kitchen was unreal.
Thanks for the timeline advice. We’re currently looking at 92011 and 921009.
Thoughts on the upcoming Treviso phases at the end of Poinsettia? There is a 5/4 “next gen” floorplan that are all perimeter lots and the HOA/MR feels priced into the sticker price fairly.
August 13, 2020 at 3:21 PM #819210ParticipantGotcha and knowing Encinitas it had to be in one of a small handful of neighborhoods one of which I used to live in. For whatever reason people like writing Encinitas on their return address and they sell for a healthy premium over similar homes in adjacent 92009 despite using all the same local services including the same schools. It just is what it is.
I stopped by Treviso several months ago and liked the floorplans. It seemed like a more than fair value to get a newer home in 92011. I understand wanting new also as I bought new in 99 as did all my neighbors. It was great and there was a real comradery but understand this is a mobile place to live. In the first 5 years the house next door sold twice, my kids lost their best friends to relocation and some of what I romanticized about growing old with neighbors and kids did not come to be.
Also when Poinsettia opens up it could be a very busy thorofare. Right now there is a ton of traffic from San Marcos, Vista Shadowridge, Oceanside, Rancho Carillo and beyond that uses RSF/Olivenhain/Leucadia Blvd to get to the 5. A lot of that traffic could well end up on Poinsettia so I would put a big premium on getting a lot/location away from the noise and visual path of that.
Here is one more big consideration. For a nice, new home with a good location it looks like a very good value and it is right now. But I beleive appreciation over time will be below average due to lot sizes. When you buy a house you are essentially buying an expensive car on a prime parking space in Manhattan. Over time that parking space gets more valuable but the car depreciates unless you upgrade it or replace it. Homes are no different. It will hold its value as a newer home with a more modern floorplan on the low end of the price range in 92011 but in 15 to 20 years it will be an older home in need of remodelling on a small lot. As land becomes more scarce and valuable that is where the above average returns are likely to be.
Bottom line there is a lot to like about Treviso especially on the right lot/location but in the end it depends upon personal situation and goals.
One more note on timing with an anecdote. Lots of opinions get thrown around by agents many of which are dead wrong. One is that to move up you need to spend as much as 50% more than your current home to make it worthwhile. What you need to be is patient, smart and take advantage of seasonality.
Case in point, last Fall I sold a friend/clients 2200 sq ft 35 year old home on a busy neighborhood feeder street in 92011 and they upgraded to a 3700 20 year old home on a quiet cul de sac with a great view in 92011 for 10% more than the house they sold. The house they sold was very nice as he was in the kitchen/bath remodelling business but it was pretty maxed out. And here’s the kicker, they bought their new home with a contingency on selling their present home. It was an amazing feat to pull off and no way it would have happened anytime other than Fall. Thats the power of seasonality!
August 13, 2020 at 10:50 PM #819211Reality
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]
No way to verify but he said that last house he sold had 40 offers.[/quote]In the first 5 minutes it was listed to boot!
August 19, 2020 at 2:13 PM #819309ParticipantBack to school time! Market should be paused up here. It isnt!
New listings 32 same as last week.
Very much in line with what we have been seeing since mid-June. They keep coming at a slow steady pace not meeting demand.
New Pendings up to 44 back up from a lull last week. Did not expect that! Thats 12 more than the new listings. Inventory has now been declining for 3 solid months.
Closed sales at 37 again the high point since early April and reflects all the frenzy of last few months.
Only 10 price reductions.
Total houses for sale back down to 112.
Market still cruising
August 19, 2020 at 2:56 PM #819311evolusd
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Back to school time! Market should be paused up here. It isnt!
New listings 32 same as last week.
Very much in line with what we have been seeing since mid-June. They keep coming at a slow steady pace not meeting demand.
New Pendings up to 44 back up from a lull last week. Did not expect that! Thats 12 more than the new listings. Inventory has now been declining for 3 solid months.
Closed sales at 37 again the high point since early April and reflects all the frenzy of last few months.
Only 10 price reductions.
Total houses for sale back down to 112.
Market still cruising[/quote]
Thanks for the update!
August 25, 2020 at 12:16 PM #819358Anonymous
GuestHow are things looking this week?
August 25, 2020 at 1:04 PM #819360ParticipantI run my data late afternoon on Tuesdays. Will know in a bit but don’t always get it up same day
August 25, 2020 at 10:00 PM #819379ParticipantKids are back in school! I’ve got 4 high school seniors out back each day attending virtual classes in a large pop up tent. Gonna be an interesting few months until schools hopefully re-open for physical attendance.
New listings 19 is the lowest since early April when it was 18.
As one might expect with back to school and hopefully they bounce back up the next few weeks.
New Pendings up to 41 so the buyers didnt take a break! That ripped a big chunk out of active inventory here. Did not expect that! Thats minus 22 compared to new listings. Inventory keeps declining. It is particularly low in the two South Carlsbad zips. Maybe the lowest Ive seen in 20 years.
Closed sales at 36 reflecting all the activity through Summer.
Slight uptick with 16 price reductions. If your house isnt selling with inventory this low its time to take a hard look at price.
Total houses for sale down to 103. There are as many in Encinitas as the 2 S carlsbad zips. Ive never tracked that but experience tells me thats astounding and reflects the fact that Encinitas is becoming increasingly high end.
We have about 1/2 month inventory around here and most is very high priced
Market still cruising but with so little on the market I think these pendings gotta start dropping in a big way soon.
August 26, 2020 at 7:36 AM #819388GuestAppreciate the update!
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