North County Coastal monitor

[Rich Toscano]

I second that!

[sdrealtor]

Thx guys that helps me to hold myself accountable. I always seem to get around to running the numbers Tuesday afternoons but sometimes I get busy with a bunch of other endeavors I’m involved in.

[sdrealtor]

Last week (need to run this week also)

I cant remember tracking these numbers being any less interesting. Its a very sleepy market on both sides

New 15 (6) –

Pending 13(19) –

Thats +2

Closed 9 (8) –

Total houses on the market 93 (93 last year) with a median of 2.3M (1.845M). Two years ago we were at 55 and in 2020 during pandemic peak impact we were at 92.

Inventory dropped back down and that should follow seasonal pattern down for rest of year. We’ll know soon enough

The most interesting thing I see in the data is the median 20% lower this time last year during that brief flash crash. There was a window of opportunity last Fall but prices have recovered from the short panic period. Inventory/Transaction volume seems to suggest we dont revisit that but we’ll have to see what the economoy holds for us

[sdrealtor]

forgot to post data from two weeks ago so here it comes.

New 12 (6) –

Pending 9(19) –

Thats +3

Closed 3 (8) –

I got busy and didnt get a chance to run total actives but pretty sure it wouldve been at or over 100 and the high point for the year. Kinda of ominous for it to happen this late as it usually peaks between Mid July and Mid August. Anecdotally things are sitting and sales skew toward cash purchases of one story homes. I think we all know what that means.

[sdrealtor]

And last week

New 7 (6) –

Pending 13(12) –

Thats -6

Closed 11 (15) –

Total houses on the market 89 (93 last year) with a median of 2.25M (1.925M). Two years ago we were at 48 and in 2020 during pandemic peak impact we were at 86.

Heading into sleepy time for the market. Not much going on, high percentage of cash buyers and one story homes sold. Inventory should continue dropping into year end.

There are not clear signs about what next year will bring. Prices creeping down seasonally, sales volume very low but interest rates fell a good bit last week. Large layoffs around town at some of the bigger employers like Viasat and QCOM could shake loose some additional inventory but I dont anticipate it causing distress sales. People have lots of equity and most are locked into very low rate loans. More than anything I expect volume to continue to be low and the industry to struggle more

[sdrealtor]

And last week

New 5 (8) –

Pending 10(9) –

Thats -5

Closed 10 (17) –

Total houses on the market 83 (88 last year) with a median of 2.25M (1.925M). Two years ago we were at 47 and in 2020 during pandemic peak impact we were at 101.

I think we are getting a little more clarity about what next year may bring. Not much coming on, new pending holding up higher than new listings and inventory falling as we head toward year end. It looks like the stalemate with low volume with continue and prices should hold relatively flat. Will keep watching as always

 

[sdrealtor]

Ive got 3 weeks data to catch up. Might as well do it all in one post. Hope the format works for anyone trying to follow it. I’ll start with 3 weeks ago and go forward from there

New Listings

9 (6)

3 (6)

10 (7)

New Pendings

11 (18)

5 (5)

10 (11)

Thats

-2

-2

0

So seems more in balance this year. Last year inventory was selling faster as there were more discounts due to uncertainty of further rate increases

Closed Sales

15 (14)

9 (5)

9 (13)

Same as last year

Total houses for sale with median of :

82 (82)  median of 2.25M (1.9M)

83  (85) median of 2.2M (1.95M)

78 (85)   median of 2.25M (1.99M)

The story here is it seems like there is far less panic selling among sellers and less discounting. There is no fear of rates going higher and if anything the sentiment is they will fall or stay the same. It should continue being a sluggish slow market into next year. Good for home values and another tough year for the industry with low sales volume

[Bewildered]

The story here is it seems like there is far less panic selling among sellers and less discounting.

I work in Biotech. There are a large amount of layoffs in bigger companies, and I’ve lost count of the number of start-ups that have folded. My company just instigated a defacto hiring freeze. The tech industry is also undergoing the same issue unless you work in AI.

No investor wants to put money into a start-up with 6% bond interest rates. I can’t stress enough how much things have changed in the past year for tech start-ups.

These layoffs will affect other parts of the economy and cause a recession.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the new year. Lots of folks looking for jobs that do not exist. I guess at some point those 7-10K/month mortgages are going to become unsustainable.

 

[sdrealtor]

Two weeks ago

New 4 (6) –

Pending 12(9) –

Thats -8

Closed 8 (11) –

Total houses on the market 67 (77 last year) with a median of 2.5M (1.95M). Two years ago we were at 31 and in 2020 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 66.

Seasonal pattern is holding. It looks like we will start the year with low volume and rates are trending down. Im thinking it looks like another year of low volume and prices should hold relatively flat.

[sdrealtor]

Just noticed the post two up about layoffs. Im not gonna talk about layoffs because thats outside my realm but the idea there are widespread 7-10K mortgages is pretty suspect. A $1M loan at 7% is $6600. Up until the last couple years loans above that were still fairly rare and most taken out at much lower rates. In CA about 80% of mortgages are at 4% or lower. A $1M mortgage between 2.5% and 4% is $4 to 5K/month. Still a big nut but not $7 -10K.

In my hood of 1000+ homes only 16 homes sold this year which is about 1/3rd of normal. Sales volume is very low here and everywhere around town. Of those a quick check shows maybe half are $1M plus loans. So 8 homes this year. Sure there could be layoffs but even if all were subject to layoffs that just isnt impacting the market materially. And we have seen there are tools to fight this. Those folks still came in with big down payments and could be put in a 10/1 or 5/1 interest only loan to weather the storm. I just dont see a big distressed market happening anytime soon

[sdrealtor]

Last week

New 4 (4) –

Pending 8(12) –

Thats -4

Closed 10 (11) –

Total houses on the market 48 (66 last year) with a median of 2.575M (1.975M). Two years ago we were at 24 and in 2020 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 51.

Seasonal pattern is holding. We are going to start the year with low inventory volume and rates are trending down. Its gonna be another dogfight year between buyers and sellers with low volume of sales. Unless rates start really dropping and go back into the 5s which would get the party started all over again

[sdrealtor]

Catch up time. this is for week before Christmas

New 3 (0) –

Pending 10 (2) – This was a higher than usual number and bares watching

Thats -7

Closed 2 (7) –

Total houses on the market 51 (57 last year) with a median of 2.45M (1.975M). Two years ago we were at 18 and in 2020 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 51.

Contrary to what I see in MM the market up here feels fully stretched to me. I think its a year that we need to firm up stability at current levels. Lower rates could ignite a more vibrant market but Im expecting a more sluggish one up here. Buyers and sellers time to don your boxing gloves and slug it out in 2024.

[sdrealtor]

Year end wrap and how we begin

New 1 (3) –

Pending 5 (5) –

Thats -4

Closed 7 (6) –

Total houses on the market 45 (57 last year) with a median of 2.65M (1.995M). Two years ago we were at 18 and in 2020 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 45.

And so we begin 2024. About where we started 2021 and to a lesser degree last year. Gonna be a slugfest. My early sense from what Ive seen the first week is no one is rushing out of the gate to list their home here

[sdrealtor]

New 8 (6) –

Pending 8 (6) –

Thats 0

Closed 14 (7) –

Total houses on the market 52 (63 last year) with a median of 2.42M (1.95M). Two years ago we were at 21 and in 2021 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 52.

New listings still seem kind of anemic to me. Im not seeing any rush to the exits. Seller confidence is solid and buyer demand growing

[sdrealtor]

Week 2 of January

New 14 (8) –

Pending 7 (13) –

Thats +7

Closed 14 (7) –

Total houses on the market 59 (58 last year) with a median of 2.3M (2.15M). Two years ago we were at 29 and in 2021 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 51.

A nice bump in new listings and we would need to keep this up to build inventory. We are where we were last year. Next few weeks will determine whether we can get enough to give buyers a stronger position or not.

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