North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

New 14 (16) –

Pending 20(21) –

Thats -6

Closed 20 (16) –

Total houses on the market 87  (129 last year) with a median of 2.395M (1.95M). Two years ago 91 with median of $2M

Something I starting to see is an increase in homes getting delisted. Folks that realized they missed the peak season and either staying put or renting it out. Just a few so far but expect to see more ahead

[sdrealtor]

New 14 (9) –

Pending 16(12) –

Thats -2

Closed 13 (120) –

Total houses on the market 83  (132 last year) with a median of 2.3M (1.99M). Two years ago 86 with median of $1.985M

Peak inventory behind us and should decline from here to y/e. We hit 93 in mid July and never reached 100 this year.

[sdrealtor]

New 22 (12) –

Pending 14(18) –

Thats +8

Closed 12 (10) –

Total houses on the market 93  (125 last year) with a median of 2.3M (not recorded).

Two years ago 64 with median of $1.985M. Of note this is when the last surge in the market really started. Two years ago in Aug 2021 seasonality should have kicked in but absurdly low rates did instead. We all know what happened next.

Inventory bumped up nicely and this is something to watch to see if that continues. There are a bunch of nice homes sitting on the market but not selling as fast as they have/should. Prices have gotten ahead of themselves the last few years. We know that and that low inventory has supported that. Those folks are gonna need to make concessions to sell the next few months. I think there will be some pullback here with the regular seasonality taking root. We should see some sales around 10% below Spring comps from sellers that capitulate. Then things should firm up again next Spring.

[sdrealtor]

Was away on Hawaiian vacation so limited report for last week

New 17 (14) –

Pending 19(19) –

Thats -2

Closed 19 (14) –

Inventory didnt rise here as it did in MM

[sdrealtor]

New 13 (14) –

Pending 23(22) –

Thats -10

Closed 16 (12) –

Total houses on the market 85 (122 last year) with a median of 2.35M (1.99M). Two years ago we were at 66 as we headed toward the price blowup that started Fall 21

Its usually a good week for sales and this year did not disappoint. Shouldn’t be much new inventory coming on and sales should slow with lower inventory but we are heading into bargain season. If your gonna get a deal Fall is the time. Probably wont be easy but some will get one

[sdrealtor]

New 12 (6) – usually a slow week on listings with end of summer holiday

Pending 12(11) –

Thats 0

Closed 16 (17) –

Total houses on the market 86 (117 last year) with a median of 2.45M (1.99M). Two years ago we were at 59 as we headed toward the price blowup that started Fall 21

Median starting to creep and expect that continue as high end homes dominate the inventory more and more

[sdrealtor]

New 16 (10) – usually a slow week on listings with end of summer holiday

Pending 13(15) –

Thats +3

Closed 9 (18) –

Total houses on the market 85 (105 last year) with a median of 2.65M (2.1M). Two years ago we were at 61 as we headed toward the price blowup that started Fall 21

Median continues to creep up as we see more new high end listings and fewer sales. Inventory has been basically flat the last 2 months. Thats a little unusual as we should be in decline already. Not worried as its not increasing but it does bear watching.

[sdrealtor]

New 12 (10) – usually a slow week on listings with end of summer holiday

Pending 12(10) –

Thats 0

Closed 15 (13) –

Total houses on the market 82 (102 last year) with a median of 2.43M (2.1M). Two years ago we were at 60 and in 2020 during pandemic peak impact we were at 85.

The size of the real estate market here is a lot smaller than it used to be. Lots of pain present and coming locally and beyond in the industry

[evolusdv2]

Are you on vacation, sdr?  I’m still here lurking on your north county update! Question – if a listing comes up on Zillow immediately as ‘Pending’ with no record of ‘Listed for sale’, does that mean the seller and their agent cut a deal off market?

[sdrealtor]

Sorry got some catching up to do. Have been busy doing a bunch of things. Kinda funny that its been almost 3 years since my last big aha moment. I was in the process of refinancing at 2.625%. As a self employed person its always tougher to refi even for a small loan. I looked at what I had just done and said to myself, self this is probably your last mortgage and you’ll never refi this loan or sell this home in this life. Then it struck me like a lightening bolt! If I was saying that, then millions of folks across the country were also. It was at that moment I knew the real estate market and just as importantly the industry was on a path to being cut in half.

To answer your question, yes it is an off market transaction and that can be for a number of reasons. These include

seller wants private sale

seller wants quick sale

property was previously on market/didnt sell/agent reached out with interested party even though it was on market

slimey agent tricks

sold during coming soon status

any number of other reasons

 

IVe been running the weekly number and just need the time to write them up. Hopefully sooner than later

[sdrealtor]

Catch up time. This is for two weeks ago

New 15 (11) –

Pending 15(15) –

Thats 0

Closed 16 (18) –

Total houses on the market 91 (98 last year) with a median of 2.43M (1.989M). Two years ago we were at 57 and in 2020 during pandemic peak impact we were at 90.

Inventory bumped up a bunch surprisingly due to sales falling out and houses that were taken off market coming back on. The inventory should be in decline this time of year but its been flat to increasing slightly

For most of the year it felt like demand was low but supply was even lower. It feels like that is changing and it now feels like supply is really low but demand even lower. Rates seem to be taking their toll.

Of note that while I track SFR homes here I also follow attached homes but dont report on them. In the attached home category townhouse type properties with garages up to around $1M if not above seem to be still selling well. Entry level buyers here are still fighting to get in and it feels like the move up buyers are getting hit harder of late

[sdrealtor]

This is for last week

New 10 (9) –

Pending 21(12) –

Thats -11

Closed 17 (12) –

Total houses on the market 86 (100 last year) with a median of 2.475M (1.989M). Two years ago we were at 59 and in 2020 during pandemic peak impact we were at 90.

Pendings came charging back this week which was a bit of a surprise. But demand still feels really sluggish. Inventory has been mostly flat since July 4th.

Its hard to say which way the market will go next year and Im looking for signs. Will demand rebound in Spring like it usually does? Will supply continue to drop as sellers get even more dug in? Those are the things I’ll be watching for

[sdrealtor]

Catching up here also this is for last week.

New 11 (12) –

Pending 12(16) –

Thats -1

Closed 14 (13) –

Total houses on the market 93 (96 last year) with a median of 2.4M (1.999M). Two years ago we were at 49 and in 2020 during pandemic peak impact we were at 99.

Season pattern should be falling but we aren’t. If anything inventory is climbing due deals falling through and houses coming back on market after not selling. Demand feels real sluggish and sellers are mostly dug in. Prices should pull back a bit this fall but less so than last year. Sellers seem less likely to panic sell.

[sdrealtor]

This past week

New 14 (15) –

Pending 13(12) –

Thats +1

Closed 9 (15) –

Total houses on the market 98 (98 last year) with a median of 2.325M (1.799M). Two years ago we were at 49 and in 2020 during pandemic peak impact we were at 110.

I think it is significant that inventory here is at the high point for the year! That speaks to the soft demand more than anything. Looking at the flow of homes coming on the market it seems skewed toward long timers or their estates more than Ive seen in the past.

Could this finally be the Boomer Liquidation so many have been waiting for. I kinda think it is but I also dont see it as a flow but rather more of a trickle so far. That could change but for now the still historically low supply is keeping prices from dropping much

[evolusdv2]

Thanks for the update, sdr. Despite the sleepiness of the forums lately, there are some of us that are still here lurking and enjoy the data updates.

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