North County Coastal monitor

[svelte]

Inventory has increased here in San Marcos (10 miles from coast).  Several homes for sale in my hood and haven’t seen that in a few years that I can recall.  Open houses have also returned.  They weren’t necessary before.

I think people are being more selective and thinking things through better instead of just jumping.

[sdrealtor]

Not sure what part you live in but thinking north part. Either way you are probably seeing something near you that doesnt extend throughout your zip. If you remove the old stuff (pre 1980) and the stuff over $1.99 this is what is going on with sfr’s in SM

92078 5 active 13 pending

92069 10 active 19 pending

Open houses are done to have max exposure the first weekend or two and get em sold.

I think you may be looking at signs in SFH or TO areas but not realizing most of it is in escrow already

 

[svelte]

Could be what’s going on.  We went a looong time without seeing open house signs at all, but now they are on the curb when I drive by.

[sdrealtor]

New 16 (19) – last year was a very low number

Pending 18 (23) – pending sales a little better than last week

Thats -2

Closed 16 (17) –

Total houses on the market 67 (86) with a median of 2.25M (2.034M). Two years ago there were 54 on the market with a median around $2M.

As expected inventory gap between last year grew a bunch and should continue to do so. Not as tight as MM down south but very stagnant here also on both sides (supply & demand)

[sdrealtor]

New 14 (20) – low listing counts continue sellers strike

Pending 28 (21) – pending  best this year and well above last year

Thats -14 –

Closed 13 (16) –

Total houses on the market 67 (98) with a median of 2.175M (2.05M). Two years ago no data must’ve been traveling

A bunch of homes are going on market, not selling, getting cleaned/fixed up a bit and put back on at same price. Thats why inventory isnt dropping much when pendings are much higher than new listings this week

Inventory now 30% below last year

The $17M+ home on Neptune thats been on market a year or so just went into escrow. Lets see if it makes it closing. That’ll be a record

[sdrealtor]

New 24 (32) –

Pending 21 (18) –

Thats +3 –

Closed 15 (19) –

Total houses on the market 74 (111) with a median of 2.24M (2.08M). Two years ago 69 with median of $1.975

A few things of note. Last year there were 101 homes listed here the 5 weeks after the rate rise and only 93 this year so not as extreme a change as in MM.

Looking at the existing inventory I see a few things.

Overall its down 33%

The market under 2.5M remains strong. If the house is sitting its likely because they are too optimistic with pricing.

The market over 2.5M is where the inventory is building. There are a bunch of amazing properties on the market

Over 2.5M I see a bunch of high end flips hitting the market as well as high end homes making their 2nd, 3rd or 4th attempt to sell over the last year or two.

Its a bifurcated market along the NCC

[wantcoastalalwaysinland]

would love to see this kind of insight for inland-poway/pq/torrey highlands/4s/del sur area. It seems like the homes are selling for over asking again.

[sdrealtor]

I know those areas pretty well having done a bunch of business there over the years. They tended to mirror the NCC market for a long time. In the last couple years the coastal markets have shifted higher end. I beleive that is because there are more unique/custom type homes on larger parcels hitting the market in older areas. With that the coast has become a bit less predictable and prone to small booms/busts.

The inland area which is far more homogenous in housing units has become more predictable and probably even more solid. When you look at the homes built in the last couple decades in those areas up to $2Mish more than half sell the first week with multiple offers and 80%+ within 2 weeks. When things go over asking its $50K or less about half the time and maybe 50 to 100K over another 25% of the time. More than that is relatively rare.  But the same thing is going on there. There are quite a few less buyers but even fewer sellers so the market is holding strong just under last years peak prices

Hope that helps and if you have more specific questions feel free to PM

[wantcoastalalwaysinland]

Thanks so much for the update-appreciate it!

[sdrealtor]

New 22 (21) –

Pending 22 (16) –

Thats 0

Closed 20 (20) –

Total houses on the market 77 (120) with a median of 2.2M (2M). Two years ago 73 with median of $2.1M

A few months ago I predicted we would not hit 100 homes and that seems a solid call now. Peak inventory happens around the next couple weeks most years and we may already have hit it. The median is creeping up as higher priced listings pile up while low to mid end continues to sell at fairly good pace.

I was playing around with the size of the market today vs historically and its pretty crazy where we are now. I think it deserves its own post. I’ll try to get it up soon.

[sdrealtor]

In early April I opined we likely wouldnt reach 100 houses on the market. We are close to the peak inventory season and not close.

New 16 (15) –

Pending 25 (20) –

Thats -9

Closed 12 (16) –

Total houses on the market 78 (121) with a median of 2.4M (1.995M). Two years ago 74 with median of $1.887M

Its crazy to think it was only a year or two ago that we were talking about the end of homes under $1m in this NCC market. Now its not easy getting a good one under $1.5M.

Carlsbad is a beach town in Coastal North County San Diego with a population of about 120,000. It is renowned for its world class beaches frequented by locals and visitors who spend weeks if not months visiting. It has a growing base of large tech, life science, golf/leisure industry employers, the busiest Costco in the country, great schools, multiple 5* resorts and is the kind of place glamorized in Hollywood. Former local economist tells us Carlsbad is going downhill with residents and businesses fleeing. There are 78 single family homes for sale here

Saint George is town in Southwestern Utah with a population of about 100,000. It is surrounded by world famous canyons people travel the globe to see and visit for 1 to 3 days. Hollywood is not aware of St George. The largest employers are a slaughterhouse, a university I couldnt name and a building industry building far beyond current demand.  Former local economist tells us its a boom town with Carlsbad residents flocking there. When I search Redfin for houses in St George I get 795 houses are on the market.

For the non-economist readers 795 is more than 78.

It seems they are anticipating a rather large flock. Maybe someone should remind them there was a show named Baywatch glamorizing life on the SoCal beaches. For those unaware, there has never been nor any discussion of a Canyon Watch.

[evolusdv2]

Shots fired, sdr!

[sdrealtor]

New 21 (22) –

Pending 18 (23) –

Thats +3

Closed 20 (16) –

Total houses on the market 84 (128) with a median of 2.44M (1.995M). Two years ago 77 with median of $1.995M

We are now at the time of year where inventory typically peaks. Could drift up or down a bit from here but shouldn’t change much over next few weeks. We are 35% below last year.

Still searching Variety for the Canyon Watch casting call but nothing in sight yet. Temps predicted to get close to 120 out in SG this weekend.

[sdrealtor]

New 21 (13) –

Pending 20(19) –

Thats +1

Closed 22 (13) –

Total houses on the market 934 (127) with a median of 2.395M (1.95M). Two years ago 80 with median of $1.99M

Inventory took a nice jump this week but its interesting where the inventory is growing.

The median list price has been rising fast the last 3 weeks. That usually happens when all the low priced homes sell and inventory  is falling. There are only 7 homes below 1.5 but inventory is growing.

This time inventory is growing on the very high end ($3M+). There are quite a few of very high end homes on the market here

[sdrealtor]

New 19 (16) –

Pending 26(15) –

Thats -7

Closed 12 (20) –

Total houses on the market 87 down 6 from last week (131 last year) with a median of 2.4M (1.95M). Two years ago 73 with median of $2.1M

Its likely peak inventory has passed.

When I look at the inventory it continues to boggle my mind how much of it is $3M+

I think the low and lower mid range will continue to perform well. Im gonna go out on a limb and predict the median list price will reach or at least get close to $3M as the lower priced stuff gets cleared out. Someone is gonna have fun with that phenomena

[Author]

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