[one_muggle]

I wouldn’t discount these guys out of hand.
These Global Insights reports have been pretty spot-on, at least for the last 6 years that I have been reading them. I am not saying that you should go buy a house because of their report, but before you go attacking the messenger, you should at least consider their analysis.
Up through 2001 they had LA county as slightly undervalued, which I found hard to believe at the time, but it seems right in retrospect.
By 2003 LA county was considered overvalued, and by 2004 it was grossly overvalued (>36%).
They state up front that their over/under valuations are not predictions of future housing prices, but consider overvalued areas to have positive price pressure, and vice-versa. Given the rapid housing price drop, their models might be overcompensating–they are based on several decades of inputs. A rapid disruption is likely to cause short-term ringing.
Also, in the description of their analysis (at least back when I last read it in detail in ~2003) they do not predict future economics either, rather they look at how current prices compare with current economic conditions–but they do take into account historic economic relationships since price to rent ratios are very different from region to region, as is mortgage-to-income.

It it likely that SD will get an “undervalued” rating on this report sometime in the next couple years.

Anyway, I would take this as one more data point, but I think accusing them of being biased a bit unfair, given that they had most metro areas rated as overvalued for much if the last couple years.

[one_muggle]

I wouldn’t discount these guys out of hand.
These Global Insights reports have been pretty spot-on, at least for the last 6 years that I have been reading them. I am not saying that you should go buy a house because of their report, but before you go attacking the messenger, you should at least consider their analysis.
Up through 2001 they had LA county as slightly undervalued, which I found hard to believe at the time, but it seems right in retrospect.
By 2003 LA county was considered overvalued, and by 2004 it was grossly overvalued (>36%).
They state up front that their over/under valuations are not predictions of future housing prices, but consider overvalued areas to have positive price pressure, and vice-versa. Given the rapid housing price drop, their models might be overcompensating–they are based on several decades of inputs. A rapid disruption is likely to cause short-term ringing.
Also, in the description of their analysis (at least back when I last read it in detail in ~2003) they do not predict future economics either, rather they look at how current prices compare with current economic conditions–but they do take into account historic economic relationships since price to rent ratios are very different from region to region, as is mortgage-to-income.

It it likely that SD will get an “undervalued” rating on this report sometime in the next couple years.

Anyway, I would take this as one more data point, but I think accusing them of being biased a bit unfair, given that they had most metro areas rated as overvalued for much if the last couple years.

[one_muggle]

I wouldn’t discount these guys out of hand.
These Global Insights reports have been pretty spot-on, at least for the last 6 years that I have been reading them. I am not saying that you should go buy a house because of their report, but before you go attacking the messenger, you should at least consider their analysis.
Up through 2001 they had LA county as slightly undervalued, which I found hard to believe at the time, but it seems right in retrospect.
By 2003 LA county was considered overvalued, and by 2004 it was grossly overvalued (>36%).
They state up front that their over/under valuations are not predictions of future housing prices, but consider overvalued areas to have positive price pressure, and vice-versa. Given the rapid housing price drop, their models might be overcompensating–they are based on several decades of inputs. A rapid disruption is likely to cause short-term ringing.
Also, in the description of their analysis (at least back when I last read it in detail in ~2003) they do not predict future economics either, rather they look at how current prices compare with current economic conditions–but they do take into account historic economic relationships since price to rent ratios are very different from region to region, as is mortgage-to-income.

It it likely that SD will get an “undervalued” rating on this report sometime in the next couple years.

Anyway, I would take this as one more data point, but I think accusing them of being biased a bit unfair, given that they had most metro areas rated as overvalued for much if the last couple years.

[one_muggle]

I wouldn’t discount these guys out of hand.
These Global Insights reports have been pretty spot-on, at least for the last 6 years that I have been reading them. I am not saying that you should go buy a house because of their report, but before you go attacking the messenger, you should at least consider their analysis.
Up through 2001 they had LA county as slightly undervalued, which I found hard to believe at the time, but it seems right in retrospect.
By 2003 LA county was considered overvalued, and by 2004 it was grossly overvalued (>36%).
They state up front that their over/under valuations are not predictions of future housing prices, but consider overvalued areas to have positive price pressure, and vice-versa. Given the rapid housing price drop, their models might be overcompensating–they are based on several decades of inputs. A rapid disruption is likely to cause short-term ringing.
Also, in the description of their analysis (at least back when I last read it in detail in ~2003) they do not predict future economics either, rather they look at how current prices compare with current economic conditions–but they do take into account historic economic relationships since price to rent ratios are very different from region to region, as is mortgage-to-income.

It it likely that SD will get an “undervalued” rating on this report sometime in the next couple years.

Anyway, I would take this as one more data point, but I think accusing them of being biased a bit unfair, given that they had most metro areas rated as overvalued for much if the last couple years.

[one_muggle]

I wouldn’t discount these guys out of hand.
These Global Insights reports have been pretty spot-on, at least for the last 6 years that I have been reading them. I am not saying that you should go buy a house because of their report, but before you go attacking the messenger, you should at least consider their analysis.
Up through 2001 they had LA county as slightly undervalued, which I found hard to believe at the time, but it seems right in retrospect.
By 2003 LA county was considered overvalued, and by 2004 it was grossly overvalued (>36%).
They state up front that their over/under valuations are not predictions of future housing prices, but consider overvalued areas to have positive price pressure, and vice-versa. Given the rapid housing price drop, their models might be overcompensating–they are based on several decades of inputs. A rapid disruption is likely to cause short-term ringing.
Also, in the description of their analysis (at least back when I last read it in detail in ~2003) they do not predict future economics either, rather they look at how current prices compare with current economic conditions–but they do take into account historic economic relationships since price to rent ratios are very different from region to region, as is mortgage-to-income.

It it likely that SD will get an “undervalued” rating on this report sometime in the next couple years.

Anyway, I would take this as one more data point, but I think accusing them of being biased a bit unfair, given that they had most metro areas rated as overvalued for much if the last couple years.

[one_muggle]

Real estate always comes back

I don’t know dude, there are a couple of significant trends that could make any significant rebound pretty far off.

For the last 30 yrs housing prices have gotten a boost from ever lower interest rates, and that will almost certainly not be the case over the next 30 yrs.

Baby boomers are beginning to switch from net home buyers to net home sellers, which is a trend that will get worse since a large fraction of them planned (and/or will need) to sell their house to fund retirement.

RE in some areas, like NYC and San Fran will probably always bounce back, but one industry towns, like Vegas, have a history of staying busted. Post-steel boom areas like Pennsylvania and upstate NY have never recovered the loss of that industry.
I don’t doubt that people will keep on gambling, but the water situation in the Southwest is getting dire, and will put a limit on growth, while surrounding states relax ordinances on local gambling. Though, the crappy dollar is keeping people in the states, so you have that going for you.
IMHO the odds on an eventual (~decade) RE recovery in Vegas are not bad, but I don’t think it is a certainty. There’s an awful lot of still-overpriced inventory, and not all that much demand. It’s kind of hard to see what is going to fuel another boom.
Good luck.

[one_muggle]

Real estate always comes back

I don’t know dude, there are a couple of significant trends that could make any significant rebound pretty far off.

For the last 30 yrs housing prices have gotten a boost from ever lower interest rates, and that will almost certainly not be the case over the next 30 yrs.

Baby boomers are beginning to switch from net home buyers to net home sellers, which is a trend that will get worse since a large fraction of them planned (and/or will need) to sell their house to fund retirement.

RE in some areas, like NYC and San Fran will probably always bounce back, but one industry towns, like Vegas, have a history of staying busted. Post-steel boom areas like Pennsylvania and upstate NY have never recovered the loss of that industry.
I don’t doubt that people will keep on gambling, but the water situation in the Southwest is getting dire, and will put a limit on growth, while surrounding states relax ordinances on local gambling. Though, the crappy dollar is keeping people in the states, so you have that going for you.
IMHO the odds on an eventual (~decade) RE recovery in Vegas are not bad, but I don’t think it is a certainty. There’s an awful lot of still-overpriced inventory, and not all that much demand. It’s kind of hard to see what is going to fuel another boom.
Good luck.

[one_muggle]

Real estate always comes back

I don’t know dude, there are a couple of significant trends that could make any significant rebound pretty far off.

For the last 30 yrs housing prices have gotten a boost from ever lower interest rates, and that will almost certainly not be the case over the next 30 yrs.

Baby boomers are beginning to switch from net home buyers to net home sellers, which is a trend that will get worse since a large fraction of them planned (and/or will need) to sell their house to fund retirement.

RE in some areas, like NYC and San Fran will probably always bounce back, but one industry towns, like Vegas, have a history of staying busted. Post-steel boom areas like Pennsylvania and upstate NY have never recovered the loss of that industry.
I don’t doubt that people will keep on gambling, but the water situation in the Southwest is getting dire, and will put a limit on growth, while surrounding states relax ordinances on local gambling. Though, the crappy dollar is keeping people in the states, so you have that going for you.
IMHO the odds on an eventual (~decade) RE recovery in Vegas are not bad, but I don’t think it is a certainty. There’s an awful lot of still-overpriced inventory, and not all that much demand. It’s kind of hard to see what is going to fuel another boom.
Good luck.

[one_muggle]

Real estate always comes back

I don’t know dude, there are a couple of significant trends that could make any significant rebound pretty far off.

For the last 30 yrs housing prices have gotten a boost from ever lower interest rates, and that will almost certainly not be the case over the next 30 yrs.

Baby boomers are beginning to switch from net home buyers to net home sellers, which is a trend that will get worse since a large fraction of them planned (and/or will need) to sell their house to fund retirement.

RE in some areas, like NYC and San Fran will probably always bounce back, but one industry towns, like Vegas, have a history of staying busted. Post-steel boom areas like Pennsylvania and upstate NY have never recovered the loss of that industry.
I don’t doubt that people will keep on gambling, but the water situation in the Southwest is getting dire, and will put a limit on growth, while surrounding states relax ordinances on local gambling. Though, the crappy dollar is keeping people in the states, so you have that going for you.
IMHO the odds on an eventual (~decade) RE recovery in Vegas are not bad, but I don’t think it is a certainty. There’s an awful lot of still-overpriced inventory, and not all that much demand. It’s kind of hard to see what is going to fuel another boom.
Good luck.

[one_muggle]

Real estate always comes back

I don’t know dude, there are a couple of significant trends that could make any significant rebound pretty far off.

For the last 30 yrs housing prices have gotten a boost from ever lower interest rates, and that will almost certainly not be the case over the next 30 yrs.

Baby boomers are beginning to switch from net home buyers to net home sellers, which is a trend that will get worse since a large fraction of them planned (and/or will need) to sell their house to fund retirement.

RE in some areas, like NYC and San Fran will probably always bounce back, but one industry towns, like Vegas, have a history of staying busted. Post-steel boom areas like Pennsylvania and upstate NY have never recovered the loss of that industry.
I don’t doubt that people will keep on gambling, but the water situation in the Southwest is getting dire, and will put a limit on growth, while surrounding states relax ordinances on local gambling. Though, the crappy dollar is keeping people in the states, so you have that going for you.
IMHO the odds on an eventual (~decade) RE recovery in Vegas are not bad, but I don’t think it is a certainty. There’s an awful lot of still-overpriced inventory, and not all that much demand. It’s kind of hard to see what is going to fuel another boom.
Good luck.

[one_muggle]

cyphire– I don’t know about the financial aspects of your choice, but FWIW I think for lifestyle Madison is fantastic. I’ve lived in plenty of places (NYC, Buffalo, LA, DC, SF, Atlanta, and Tucson) and visited most of the 50 states, and except for hard winters, Madison really is quite a nice place–though I expect you already know that or you wouldn’t be moving. It is one of the few places in “flyover” country where I would like to live.
The university is also great and it’s reputation is on the rise and the convention center there is one of nicest I’ve visited–and I’ve visited some pretty nice ones. It’s a Frank Loyd Wright design, called Monona Terrace I think. Madison is truly a wonder to bi-coastal snobs, such as I myself. ;^)

Good luck.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

cyphire– I don’t know about the financial aspects of your choice, but FWIW I think for lifestyle Madison is fantastic. I’ve lived in plenty of places (NYC, Buffalo, LA, DC, SF, Atlanta, and Tucson) and visited most of the 50 states, and except for hard winters, Madison really is quite a nice place–though I expect you already know that or you wouldn’t be moving. It is one of the few places in “flyover” country where I would like to live.
The university is also great and it’s reputation is on the rise and the convention center there is one of nicest I’ve visited–and I’ve visited some pretty nice ones. It’s a Frank Loyd Wright design, called Monona Terrace I think. Madison is truly a wonder to bi-coastal snobs, such as I myself. ;^)

Good luck.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

cyphire– I don’t know about the financial aspects of your choice, but FWIW I think for lifestyle Madison is fantastic. I’ve lived in plenty of places (NYC, Buffalo, LA, DC, SF, Atlanta, and Tucson) and visited most of the 50 states, and except for hard winters, Madison really is quite a nice place–though I expect you already know that or you wouldn’t be moving. It is one of the few places in “flyover” country where I would like to live.
The university is also great and it’s reputation is on the rise and the convention center there is one of nicest I’ve visited–and I’ve visited some pretty nice ones. It’s a Frank Loyd Wright design, called Monona Terrace I think. Madison is truly a wonder to bi-coastal snobs, such as I myself. ;^)

Good luck.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

cyphire– I don’t know about the financial aspects of your choice, but FWIW I think for lifestyle Madison is fantastic. I’ve lived in plenty of places (NYC, Buffalo, LA, DC, SF, Atlanta, and Tucson) and visited most of the 50 states, and except for hard winters, Madison really is quite a nice place–though I expect you already know that or you wouldn’t be moving. It is one of the few places in “flyover” country where I would like to live.
The university is also great and it’s reputation is on the rise and the convention center there is one of nicest I’ve visited–and I’ve visited some pretty nice ones. It’s a Frank Loyd Wright design, called Monona Terrace I think. Madison is truly a wonder to bi-coastal snobs, such as I myself. ;^)

Good luck.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

cyphire– I don’t know about the financial aspects of your choice, but FWIW I think for lifestyle Madison is fantastic. I’ve lived in plenty of places (NYC, Buffalo, LA, DC, SF, Atlanta, and Tucson) and visited most of the 50 states, and except for hard winters, Madison really is quite a nice place–though I expect you already know that or you wouldn’t be moving. It is one of the few places in “flyover” country where I would like to live.
The university is also great and it’s reputation is on the rise and the convention center there is one of nicest I’ve visited–and I’ve visited some pretty nice ones. It’s a Frank Loyd Wright design, called Monona Terrace I think. Madison is truly a wonder to bi-coastal snobs, such as I myself. ;^)

Good luck.

-one muggle

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