[one_muggle]

SD Realtor, you’ve finally revealed your true identity…

Yogi Berra!

If you cannot make money you cannot make money.

[one_muggle]

SD Realtor, you’ve finally revealed your true identity…

Yogi Berra!

If you cannot make money you cannot make money.

[one_muggle]

If you include all government intervention, then prices were already artificially high, even before the bubble. The tax deduction for mortgages already juiced housing prices, since it makes a given mortgage cheaper. As people compete for houses, the discount is, well, discounted. If you want to argue that this isn’t the case, imagine what would happen to house prices-all other things being equal– if the deduction were taken away.

I think that deduction has a bigger influence on prices, than does this collection of bailouts. Sure, the individuals that get bailed out will make out like bandits, but it doesn’t look like the scale will affect the market much, at least not yet.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

If you include all government intervention, then prices were already artificially high, even before the bubble. The tax deduction for mortgages already juiced housing prices, since it makes a given mortgage cheaper. As people compete for houses, the discount is, well, discounted. If you want to argue that this isn’t the case, imagine what would happen to house prices-all other things being equal– if the deduction were taken away.

I think that deduction has a bigger influence on prices, than does this collection of bailouts. Sure, the individuals that get bailed out will make out like bandits, but it doesn’t look like the scale will affect the market much, at least not yet.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

If you include all government intervention, then prices were already artificially high, even before the bubble. The tax deduction for mortgages already juiced housing prices, since it makes a given mortgage cheaper. As people compete for houses, the discount is, well, discounted. If you want to argue that this isn’t the case, imagine what would happen to house prices-all other things being equal– if the deduction were taken away.

I think that deduction has a bigger influence on prices, than does this collection of bailouts. Sure, the individuals that get bailed out will make out like bandits, but it doesn’t look like the scale will affect the market much, at least not yet.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

If you include all government intervention, then prices were already artificially high, even before the bubble. The tax deduction for mortgages already juiced housing prices, since it makes a given mortgage cheaper. As people compete for houses, the discount is, well, discounted. If you want to argue that this isn’t the case, imagine what would happen to house prices-all other things being equal– if the deduction were taken away.

I think that deduction has a bigger influence on prices, than does this collection of bailouts. Sure, the individuals that get bailed out will make out like bandits, but it doesn’t look like the scale will affect the market much, at least not yet.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

do financials and mortgages banks continue to drop or are they at the bottom of this subprime mess? And gold/siler are at or near all time highs – is it too late to get in, or will the dollar continue to decline?

Does anyone else think Google is overpriced?

IMHO:
Banking problems, both stock and real world, are only getting started. Though there will be some better banks that get punished with the bad–I think there is a big buying opportunity in individual bank stocks because of this, but the sector in general continues to suck.

I’ve seen enough people that were more informed and smarter than me get burned in currency, so I avoid pure currency plays. I prefer buying companies that make money even if the dollar tanks-such as most multinationals. If i had to put short term money on currency, I would bet heavy against the dollar, but long term I think the dollar is starting to be oversold.

For Google, again short term I am not fighting the trend (which is up), but I think it looks a bit rich at a P/E of 50. It does make money, so it is not an internet stock horror story, like the early 2000’s, but they need to keep innovating their asses off to make the stock worth more than its current price.
Generally, I think the market is fairly valued, at best, and heading for a good correction, at worst. I am stockpiling cash–though unfortunately, in US dollars.

[one_muggle]

do financials and mortgages banks continue to drop or are they at the bottom of this subprime mess? And gold/siler are at or near all time highs – is it too late to get in, or will the dollar continue to decline?

Does anyone else think Google is overpriced?

IMHO:
Banking problems, both stock and real world, are only getting started. Though there will be some better banks that get punished with the bad–I think there is a big buying opportunity in individual bank stocks because of this, but the sector in general continues to suck.

I’ve seen enough people that were more informed and smarter than me get burned in currency, so I avoid pure currency plays. I prefer buying companies that make money even if the dollar tanks-such as most multinationals. If i had to put short term money on currency, I would bet heavy against the dollar, but long term I think the dollar is starting to be oversold.

For Google, again short term I am not fighting the trend (which is up), but I think it looks a bit rich at a P/E of 50. It does make money, so it is not an internet stock horror story, like the early 2000’s, but they need to keep innovating their asses off to make the stock worth more than its current price.
Generally, I think the market is fairly valued, at best, and heading for a good correction, at worst. I am stockpiling cash–though unfortunately, in US dollars.

[one_muggle]

do financials and mortgages banks continue to drop or are they at the bottom of this subprime mess? And gold/siler are at or near all time highs – is it too late to get in, or will the dollar continue to decline?

Does anyone else think Google is overpriced?

IMHO:
Banking problems, both stock and real world, are only getting started. Though there will be some better banks that get punished with the bad–I think there is a big buying opportunity in individual bank stocks because of this, but the sector in general continues to suck.

I’ve seen enough people that were more informed and smarter than me get burned in currency, so I avoid pure currency plays. I prefer buying companies that make money even if the dollar tanks-such as most multinationals. If i had to put short term money on currency, I would bet heavy against the dollar, but long term I think the dollar is starting to be oversold.

For Google, again short term I am not fighting the trend (which is up), but I think it looks a bit rich at a P/E of 50. It does make money, so it is not an internet stock horror story, like the early 2000’s, but they need to keep innovating their asses off to make the stock worth more than its current price.
Generally, I think the market is fairly valued, at best, and heading for a good correction, at worst. I am stockpiling cash–though unfortunately, in US dollars.

[one_muggle]

do financials and mortgages banks continue to drop or are they at the bottom of this subprime mess? And gold/siler are at or near all time highs – is it too late to get in, or will the dollar continue to decline?

Does anyone else think Google is overpriced?

IMHO:
Banking problems, both stock and real world, are only getting started. Though there will be some better banks that get punished with the bad–I think there is a big buying opportunity in individual bank stocks because of this, but the sector in general continues to suck.

I’ve seen enough people that were more informed and smarter than me get burned in currency, so I avoid pure currency plays. I prefer buying companies that make money even if the dollar tanks-such as most multinationals. If i had to put short term money on currency, I would bet heavy against the dollar, but long term I think the dollar is starting to be oversold.

For Google, again short term I am not fighting the trend (which is up), but I think it looks a bit rich at a P/E of 50. It does make money, so it is not an internet stock horror story, like the early 2000’s, but they need to keep innovating their asses off to make the stock worth more than its current price.
Generally, I think the market is fairly valued, at best, and heading for a good correction, at worst. I am stockpiling cash–though unfortunately, in US dollars.

[one_muggle]

So why has production been essentially flat for three years while oil has gone from $30 to $94 (according to you this increase in prices should have caused production to increase)
That’s 0% increase in production
300% increase in price
Seems that your argument is missing something

Ugh. The price increase makes it more attractive to extract more expensive oil– but the time/cost of new wells is high. For sure, if prices stay high, production will keep increasing–not forever, I never said that, but for now.
BTW, if you want to see the impact of high oil prices, look at exploration companies like Dawson Geo and OYOG, they have been doing quadruple the business of the previous five years.

As far as missing something-I think you are missing something, data:
Daily production (thous. barrel per day)
2002: 74496
2006: 81663

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2007/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/oil_section_2007.pdf

Last time for my original point, before getting bogged down in explaining things I never said–many people throw around the Hubbert Peak to predict the end of oil. It is not, and was never the purpose of the Hubbert Peak. It was based on the ability to extract cheap oil, written by an employee of an oil company, showing that the US was running out of cheap oil, thus encouraging more international exploration. We (the world) will run out of cheap oil way, way, way before we run out of oil that is cheaper to extract than the energy it costs.
Yes, the price will rise, and the economic consequences could be severe, but we are not about to run out of oil–possibly we are on the cusp of running out of cheap oil.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

So why has production been essentially flat for three years while oil has gone from $30 to $94 (according to you this increase in prices should have caused production to increase)
That’s 0% increase in production
300% increase in price
Seems that your argument is missing something

Ugh. The price increase makes it more attractive to extract more expensive oil– but the time/cost of new wells is high. For sure, if prices stay high, production will keep increasing–not forever, I never said that, but for now.
BTW, if you want to see the impact of high oil prices, look at exploration companies like Dawson Geo and OYOG, they have been doing quadruple the business of the previous five years.

As far as missing something-I think you are missing something, data:
Daily production (thous. barrel per day)
2002: 74496
2006: 81663

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2007/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/oil_section_2007.pdf

Last time for my original point, before getting bogged down in explaining things I never said–many people throw around the Hubbert Peak to predict the end of oil. It is not, and was never the purpose of the Hubbert Peak. It was based on the ability to extract cheap oil, written by an employee of an oil company, showing that the US was running out of cheap oil, thus encouraging more international exploration. We (the world) will run out of cheap oil way, way, way before we run out of oil that is cheaper to extract than the energy it costs.
Yes, the price will rise, and the economic consequences could be severe, but we are not about to run out of oil–possibly we are on the cusp of running out of cheap oil.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

So why has production been essentially flat for three years while oil has gone from $30 to $94 (according to you this increase in prices should have caused production to increase)
That’s 0% increase in production
300% increase in price
Seems that your argument is missing something

Ugh. The price increase makes it more attractive to extract more expensive oil– but the time/cost of new wells is high. For sure, if prices stay high, production will keep increasing–not forever, I never said that, but for now.
BTW, if you want to see the impact of high oil prices, look at exploration companies like Dawson Geo and OYOG, they have been doing quadruple the business of the previous five years.

As far as missing something-I think you are missing something, data:
Daily production (thous. barrel per day)
2002: 74496
2006: 81663

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2007/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/oil_section_2007.pdf

Last time for my original point, before getting bogged down in explaining things I never said–many people throw around the Hubbert Peak to predict the end of oil. It is not, and was never the purpose of the Hubbert Peak. It was based on the ability to extract cheap oil, written by an employee of an oil company, showing that the US was running out of cheap oil, thus encouraging more international exploration. We (the world) will run out of cheap oil way, way, way before we run out of oil that is cheaper to extract than the energy it costs.
Yes, the price will rise, and the economic consequences could be severe, but we are not about to run out of oil–possibly we are on the cusp of running out of cheap oil.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

So why has production been essentially flat for three years while oil has gone from $30 to $94 (according to you this increase in prices should have caused production to increase)
That’s 0% increase in production
300% increase in price
Seems that your argument is missing something

Ugh. The price increase makes it more attractive to extract more expensive oil– but the time/cost of new wells is high. For sure, if prices stay high, production will keep increasing–not forever, I never said that, but for now.
BTW, if you want to see the impact of high oil prices, look at exploration companies like Dawson Geo and OYOG, they have been doing quadruple the business of the previous five years.

As far as missing something-I think you are missing something, data:
Daily production (thous. barrel per day)
2002: 74496
2006: 81663

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2007/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/oil_section_2007.pdf

Last time for my original point, before getting bogged down in explaining things I never said–many people throw around the Hubbert Peak to predict the end of oil. It is not, and was never the purpose of the Hubbert Peak. It was based on the ability to extract cheap oil, written by an employee of an oil company, showing that the US was running out of cheap oil, thus encouraging more international exploration. We (the world) will run out of cheap oil way, way, way before we run out of oil that is cheaper to extract than the energy it costs.
Yes, the price will rise, and the economic consequences could be severe, but we are not about to run out of oil–possibly we are on the cusp of running out of cheap oil.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

djrobsd,

Do you really want to live around a bunch of spoiled rich peeps?
This is a major issue for my family as well, but we are finding (through private school tours) that we would face as big, if not bigger problem with the private school crowd.

The best (or worst in this case) is the private academy in my local ‘expensive school district’–these people buy the multi-million dollar homes to be in the desirable school district, and then pay $20k per year to go to private school.
I am not poor, but damn, that takes lots of disposable income.

-one muggle

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