MOVING IN THIS MARKET!

[LostCat]

I bought my house in Allied gardens in 98 for $170k. It’s a 3bed 2 bath 1,900 sqft. When I bought the house I was single and free and clear of all debt. I fixed the thing up over the past 10 years, taking not a penny out of my equity. I did it slowly. A 190k house with no HOA, melaroos and a fixed 30-year mortgage,is probably how SD should be today for everyone.

The questions is, I am not single anymore, I have two kids, one about to enter elementary school and I am not real set on the school system in my area. Even if I low balled my property, for say $400k or even $350k, I’d make a nice profit. If I used this equity to buy something in Carmel Valley, I know I’d lose equity the minute I moved in. However, I also know that the equity I have in my house today will also lose value, so it’s a lose lose situation, if I am looking at it as an investment, which it is because housing is one of the biggest investments most make in thier lives.

Assuming I can sell my place for $350k, and then have $250k for a down on a home in CM, would this make any sense?

I don’t consider any of the equit in my house today, real equity. I do believe the market is over valued. One option I was considering is waiting two more years, then renting my place out while I pick up a new place to live.

[OwnerOfCalifornia]

You should look into private/magnet schools and run the cost analysis of that vs. selling now and buying in CV, or selling and renting elsewhere.

[OwnerOfCalifornia]

You should look into private/magnet schools and run the cost analysis of that vs. selling now and buying in CV, or selling and renting elsewhere.

[OwnerOfCalifornia]

You should look into private/magnet schools and run the cost analysis of that vs. selling now and buying in CV, or selling and renting elsewhere.

[OwnerOfCalifornia]

You should look into private/magnet schools and run the cost analysis of that vs. selling now and buying in CV, or selling and renting elsewhere.

[djrobsd]

You’re a smart man LostCat, and I commend you for your discipline. Stay that way. I agree, with the other poster, see if you can find a good private school to put your kids in, and call it day! The problem with moving to a “rich” area like that to get good schools, is you and your kids will get caught in the trap… Do you really want to live around a bunch of spoiled rich peeps? Nothing against those who live there, but I’ve DJ’d several parties for the kids in that neighborhood, and their parents spoil them rotten, and if you’re not able to do the same for your kids, you will ultimately hate the decision you made.

[djrobsd]

You’re a smart man LostCat, and I commend you for your discipline. Stay that way. I agree, with the other poster, see if you can find a good private school to put your kids in, and call it day! The problem with moving to a “rich” area like that to get good schools, is you and your kids will get caught in the trap… Do you really want to live around a bunch of spoiled rich peeps? Nothing against those who live there, but I’ve DJ’d several parties for the kids in that neighborhood, and their parents spoil them rotten, and if you’re not able to do the same for your kids, you will ultimately hate the decision you made.

[djrobsd]

You’re a smart man LostCat, and I commend you for your discipline. Stay that way. I agree, with the other poster, see if you can find a good private school to put your kids in, and call it day! The problem with moving to a “rich” area like that to get good schools, is you and your kids will get caught in the trap… Do you really want to live around a bunch of spoiled rich peeps? Nothing against those who live there, but I’ve DJ’d several parties for the kids in that neighborhood, and their parents spoil them rotten, and if you’re not able to do the same for your kids, you will ultimately hate the decision you made.

[djrobsd]

You’re a smart man LostCat, and I commend you for your discipline. Stay that way. I agree, with the other poster, see if you can find a good private school to put your kids in, and call it day! The problem with moving to a “rich” area like that to get good schools, is you and your kids will get caught in the trap… Do you really want to live around a bunch of spoiled rich peeps? Nothing against those who live there, but I’ve DJ’d several parties for the kids in that neighborhood, and their parents spoil them rotten, and if you’re not able to do the same for your kids, you will ultimately hate the decision you made.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Since you already bought at the last bottom I would hold the house. Living there is cheaper than renting. If you need to move up to a new neighborhood, rent there first (and rent out your property)

The ideal situation (if you have the downpayment outside your current home equity) would be to buy in the move up neighborhood (I guess that’s CV for you) sometime in the next 2-3 years, while keeping the old property. This is a buy low, never sell strategy, and although not as potentially lucrative as a buy low/sell high it is much easier to get it right (your timing has to be correct fewer times in your life).

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Since you already bought at the last bottom I would hold the house. Living there is cheaper than renting. If you need to move up to a new neighborhood, rent there first (and rent out your property)

The ideal situation (if you have the downpayment outside your current home equity) would be to buy in the move up neighborhood (I guess that’s CV for you) sometime in the next 2-3 years, while keeping the old property. This is a buy low, never sell strategy, and although not as potentially lucrative as a buy low/sell high it is much easier to get it right (your timing has to be correct fewer times in your life).

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Since you already bought at the last bottom I would hold the house. Living there is cheaper than renting. If you need to move up to a new neighborhood, rent there first (and rent out your property)

The ideal situation (if you have the downpayment outside your current home equity) would be to buy in the move up neighborhood (I guess that’s CV for you) sometime in the next 2-3 years, while keeping the old property. This is a buy low, never sell strategy, and although not as potentially lucrative as a buy low/sell high it is much easier to get it right (your timing has to be correct fewer times in your life).

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Since you already bought at the last bottom I would hold the house. Living there is cheaper than renting. If you need to move up to a new neighborhood, rent there first (and rent out your property)

The ideal situation (if you have the downpayment outside your current home equity) would be to buy in the move up neighborhood (I guess that’s CV for you) sometime in the next 2-3 years, while keeping the old property. This is a buy low, never sell strategy, and although not as potentially lucrative as a buy low/sell high it is much easier to get it right (your timing has to be correct fewer times in your life).

[one_muggle]

I have a similar (enough) situation that I ran some simple numbers for this just last week.

Just to give you an idea, the current cost for private school (in my area) starts around $1k/month/kid. With 2 kids, that is a monthly equivalent to a $300k 30yr fixed loan at 7%.

With LostCat’s projected profit, that means you could buy a ~$550k house in a neighborhood with good public schools, for the same price as today’s private school tuition.
This is very back of the envelope, since taxes, opportunity cost (for the $250k), etc are not included. But it just gives one an idea of how much house you could get, just for the cost of private school.

Long term, the cost of school will rise, but your mortgage should stay the same (except your write-off starts shrinking). If house prices were stable, and the good public school were just as good as the private–BUY or RENT.
If prices are rising rapidly–it’s a no brainer BUY.
If prices are falling rapidly–RENT.

For my case, since we already sold our primary residence, we will rent next year, when my oldest starts kindergarten, in the best public school district around. The rent premium to go from our very nice neighborhood–but with lousy schools–is about $1200/month. So, purely financially, it does not make sense, except that we have another one starting school sometime after and I am not jerking my kids around different schools to maximize my finances!

If all goes well, we are looking at buying in 2-4 yrs (RE depending) in the same neighborhood.
It made much more sense for us, than private school–though a major assumption is the equivalence of the good public versus private–another reason we are renting, rather than getting stuck. We want to find out first hand.

Good luck, I know from personal experience how freakin hard it is to figure out schools in SoCal.
-one muggle

[one_muggle]

I have a similar (enough) situation that I ran some simple numbers for this just last week.

Just to give you an idea, the current cost for private school (in my area) starts around $1k/month/kid. With 2 kids, that is a monthly equivalent to a $300k 30yr fixed loan at 7%.

With LostCat’s projected profit, that means you could buy a ~$550k house in a neighborhood with good public schools, for the same price as today’s private school tuition.
This is very back of the envelope, since taxes, opportunity cost (for the $250k), etc are not included. But it just gives one an idea of how much house you could get, just for the cost of private school.

Long term, the cost of school will rise, but your mortgage should stay the same (except your write-off starts shrinking). If house prices were stable, and the good public school were just as good as the private–BUY or RENT.
If prices are rising rapidly–it’s a no brainer BUY.
If prices are falling rapidly–RENT.

For my case, since we already sold our primary residence, we will rent next year, when my oldest starts kindergarten, in the best public school district around. The rent premium to go from our very nice neighborhood–but with lousy schools–is about $1200/month. So, purely financially, it does not make sense, except that we have another one starting school sometime after and I am not jerking my kids around different schools to maximize my finances!

If all goes well, we are looking at buying in 2-4 yrs (RE depending) in the same neighborhood.
It made much more sense for us, than private school–though a major assumption is the equivalence of the good public versus private–another reason we are renting, rather than getting stuck. We want to find out first hand.

Good luck, I know from personal experience how freakin hard it is to figure out schools in SoCal.
-one muggle

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