Dow down 360, again…..

[CAwireman]

Something here for just about everyone.

http://money.aol.com/marketnews/article

Stocks Plunge With Dollar; Dow Down 360
11/07/07 19:06 EST
By TIM PARADIS

NEW YORK (AP) – Wall Street suffered its second big drop in a week Wednesday, with investors worried about spreading fallout from the credit crisis at banks and about a dollar that just keeps getting weaker. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 360 points – just about matching its pullback of last Thursday.

A passel of worries tormented investors, including comments by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo about conflicts of interest in the mortgage industry that exacerbated declines among bank stocks.

Meanwhile, the dollar swooned amid speculation that China will seek to diversify some of its foreign currency stockpiles beyond the greenback and General Motors Corp. further dampened sentiment by posting a record loss tied to an accounting adjustment.

Oil hit a record, rising above $98 per barrel before retreating, and gold pushed higher, moves exacerbated by an anemic dollar.

The fear with a huge drop like Wednesday’s is whether it is part not just of a correction, which is a 10 percent pullback in stock prices, but that it could be the beginning of a bear market. With the huge volatility that has swept Wall Street since the summer, and triple-digit moves in the Dow becoming commonplace, no one can be sure.

Still, the concern on the Street is that the extent of the fallout from the credit market crisis that has led to billions of dollars in losses for major banks and investment firms is not yet known. With Citigroup Inc. announcing Sunday it needed to take an additional $8 billion to $11 billion in writedowns, investors are very uneasy not just about stocks, but the economy as a whole.

“The financials are the bodyguards of the market and when the bodyguards are taking shots then the market can’t do well,” said David Darst, chief investment strategist for Morgan Stanley’s global wealth management group.

“A lot of the bad stuff is known; what the markets are worrying about is the unknown,” Darst said.

The Dow fell 360.92, or 2.64 percent, to 13,300.02. The Dow, which had gained 117 points on Tuesday, had fallen 362.14 last Thursday, reflecting the extreme fractiousness on Wall Street these days. It was the third time in a month the blue chip index has dropped by more than 350 points, and leaves the Dow up 6.71 percent for the year.

Broader stock indicators also pulled back Wednesday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 44.65, or 2.94 percent, to 1,475.62 – moving below the 1,500 benchmark. The Nasdaq composite index fell 76.42, or 2.70 percent, to 2,748.76. For the year, the S&P 500 is up 4.04 percent, while the Nasdaq is up 13.81 percent.

A drop in the NYSE composite index proved steep enough to trigger trading curbs, which puts restrictions on certain kinds of sell orders and are meant to help stabilize the market.

Government bonds jumped as investors transferred money from stocks to fixed-income investments. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 4.34 percent from 4.37 percent late Tuesday. It was down to 4.30 percent in after-hours trading.

The pullback among the financials made clear the urgency of some investors’ concerns about balance sheets.

Washington Mutual Inc. fell after Cuomo stepped up claims that the bank shares blame for inflated home prices nationwide. The bank, which also warned it expects loan defaults to continue in the first quarter at the same pace as in the present quarter, fell $4.19, or 17.3 percent, to $20.04.

Cuomo issued subpoenas to government-sponsored lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as part of his inquiry into what he regards as conflicts of interest in the mortgage industry. Fannie Mae fell $5.60, or 10.1 percent, to $49.79, while Freddie Mac fell $4.26, or 8.6 percent, to $45.13.

In addition, American International Group fell $4.15, or 6.7 percent, to $57.90 ahead of a quarterly financial report due after the closing bell.

Other financial names fell as well. American Express Co. fell $3.20, or 5.5 percent, to $55.37. Citigroup, which like AIG and American Express is among the 30 stocks that make up the Dow industrials, fell $1.67, or 4.8 percent, to $33.41. Morgan Stanley fell $3.32, or 6.1 percent, to $51.19.

Illustrating investors’ unease, the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index, known as the VIX, and often referred to as the “fear index,” spiked, jumping nearly 24 percent.

The 13-nation euro hit a fresh record against the dollar – rising to $1.4729 – before falling back. The dollar lost ground following word that a senior Chinese political figure said China should spread its $1.43 trillion foreign exchange reserves beyond the dollar into the euro and other strong currencies.

The euro’s rally put it well above the $1.4554 the currency bought late Tuesday in New York. The previous record high, also set Tuesday, was $1.4571.

The weak dollar helped keep pressure on the price of oil during much of the session. Light, sweet crude fell 33 cents to settle at $96.37 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the goverment reported inventories fell less than expected last week while refinery utilization remained flat.

December gold rose but also came off its highs, adding $10.10 to settle at $833.50 an ounce on the Nymex.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials didn’t give investors much reason to reconsider their bets. St. Louis Fed President William Poole said recent weeks have seen the credit markets make clear progress in returning to normal but said the Fed might have to make other rate cuts. Such a move would likely hasten the dollar’s fall as investors would seek better interest rates elsewhere. The central bank reduced the federal funds rate in September and again last month.

Corporate news likewise was depressing. GM reported a $39 billion loss for the third quarter due to an accounting shift. The company booked a $38.6 billion noncash charge largely related to establishing a valuation allowance, which is taken when the future benefit of deferred tax assets is less likely to be realized.

GM’s loss came to $68.85 per share, compared with a loss of $147 million, or 26 cents per share, in the third quarter last year. The stock fell $2.21, or 6.1 percent, to $33.95.

Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average closed down 0.94 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.85 percent, Germany’s DAX index fell 0.35 percent, and France’s CAC-40 fell 0.46 percent.

[davelj]

Where is trader Chris Johnson? He made a great trading call back at the trough of the last decline and stuck with his long positions and then we had a melt up.

Chris, I don’t trade but I’m curious: Any change in your thinking these days? The internals of the market must look horrible – very narrow leadership and the financials are tanking.

As for myself, I think the ability of this market to keep pulling itself out of the abyss is on borrowed time. The broader indices seem to be defying what’s going on around them. But who knows…

[kev374]

The DOW has been so volatile lately, looks like the Wall St traders are running around like chickens without heads, nobody can get an accurate read on what is happening with this credit situation.

[kev374]

The DOW has been so volatile lately, looks like the Wall St traders are running around like chickens without heads, nobody can get an accurate read on what is happening with this credit situation.

[kev374]

The DOW has been so volatile lately, looks like the Wall St traders are running around like chickens without heads, nobody can get an accurate read on what is happening with this credit situation.

[kev374]

The DOW has been so volatile lately, looks like the Wall St traders are running around like chickens without heads, nobody can get an accurate read on what is happening with this credit situation.

[cr]

Everyone is so surprised that the banks who bought and sold all the bad loans are now paying the price. There’s even talk that this will extend to car loans and credit card debt.

People are out of money. So what does Wall Street want? More rate cuts…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/21677381/site/14081545

Amazing.

[Eugene]

On the positive side, my S&P put options are back to pre-rate cut levels and my gold and foreign currency deposits are hitting new highs every day.

[drunkle]

sorta off topic, but…

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071108/bs_nm/morganstanley_subprime_dc_4

“The investment bank said it has reduced its net exposure to U.S. subprime debt — defined as the potential loss if all of the debt’s value were wiped out — to $6 billion as of October 31 from $10.4 billion as of August 31.

It has also reduced its total exposure to asset-backed collateralized debt obligations and related subprime debt to $9.3 billion on October 31 from $12.3 billion on August 31.”

how did they reduce their exposure? isn’t the point of the “credit crisis” and the unknown valuation of cdo’s the fact that people aren’t buying them?

how did any of the other investment banks do it? or is “reduction of exposure” a euphemism for the write downs?

edit:
or the fed accepted them as collateral?

[cr]

What do the active traders here think – do financials and mortgages banks continue to drop or are they at the bottom of this subprime mess? And gold/siler are at or near all time highs – is it too late to get in, or will the dollar continue to decline?

Does anyone else think Google is overpriced?

[HereWeGo]

Nice to see the Asian markets are fully decoupled, what with the Nikkei down 400 or so and the Hang Seng off 1100. Correlation of zippo there, no doubt about it.

Perhaps the Europeans will demonstrate more decoupling during their Thurs. morning session.

[HereWeGo]

Nice to see the Asian markets are fully decoupled, what with the Nikkei down 400 or so and the Hang Seng off 1100. Correlation of zippo there, no doubt about it.

Perhaps the Europeans will demonstrate more decoupling during their Thurs. morning session.

[HereWeGo]

Nice to see the Asian markets are fully decoupled, what with the Nikkei down 400 or so and the Hang Seng off 1100. Correlation of zippo there, no doubt about it.

Perhaps the Europeans will demonstrate more decoupling during their Thurs. morning session.

[HereWeGo]

Nice to see the Asian markets are fully decoupled, what with the Nikkei down 400 or so and the Hang Seng off 1100. Correlation of zippo there, no doubt about it.

Perhaps the Europeans will demonstrate more decoupling during their Thurs. morning session.

[one_muggle]

do financials and mortgages banks continue to drop or are they at the bottom of this subprime mess? And gold/siler are at or near all time highs – is it too late to get in, or will the dollar continue to decline?

Does anyone else think Google is overpriced?

IMHO:
Banking problems, both stock and real world, are only getting started. Though there will be some better banks that get punished with the bad–I think there is a big buying opportunity in individual bank stocks because of this, but the sector in general continues to suck.

I’ve seen enough people that were more informed and smarter than me get burned in currency, so I avoid pure currency plays. I prefer buying companies that make money even if the dollar tanks-such as most multinationals. If i had to put short term money on currency, I would bet heavy against the dollar, but long term I think the dollar is starting to be oversold.

For Google, again short term I am not fighting the trend (which is up), but I think it looks a bit rich at a P/E of 50. It does make money, so it is not an internet stock horror story, like the early 2000’s, but they need to keep innovating their asses off to make the stock worth more than its current price.
Generally, I think the market is fairly valued, at best, and heading for a good correction, at worst. I am stockpiling cash–though unfortunately, in US dollars.

[one_muggle]

do financials and mortgages banks continue to drop or are they at the bottom of this subprime mess? And gold/siler are at or near all time highs – is it too late to get in, or will the dollar continue to decline?

Does anyone else think Google is overpriced?

IMHO:
Banking problems, both stock and real world, are only getting started. Though there will be some better banks that get punished with the bad–I think there is a big buying opportunity in individual bank stocks because of this, but the sector in general continues to suck.

I’ve seen enough people that were more informed and smarter than me get burned in currency, so I avoid pure currency plays. I prefer buying companies that make money even if the dollar tanks-such as most multinationals. If i had to put short term money on currency, I would bet heavy against the dollar, but long term I think the dollar is starting to be oversold.

For Google, again short term I am not fighting the trend (which is up), but I think it looks a bit rich at a P/E of 50. It does make money, so it is not an internet stock horror story, like the early 2000’s, but they need to keep innovating their asses off to make the stock worth more than its current price.
Generally, I think the market is fairly valued, at best, and heading for a good correction, at worst. I am stockpiling cash–though unfortunately, in US dollars.

[one_muggle]

do financials and mortgages banks continue to drop or are they at the bottom of this subprime mess? And gold/siler are at or near all time highs – is it too late to get in, or will the dollar continue to decline?

Does anyone else think Google is overpriced?

IMHO:
Banking problems, both stock and real world, are only getting started. Though there will be some better banks that get punished with the bad–I think there is a big buying opportunity in individual bank stocks because of this, but the sector in general continues to suck.

I’ve seen enough people that were more informed and smarter than me get burned in currency, so I avoid pure currency plays. I prefer buying companies that make money even if the dollar tanks-such as most multinationals. If i had to put short term money on currency, I would bet heavy against the dollar, but long term I think the dollar is starting to be oversold.

For Google, again short term I am not fighting the trend (which is up), but I think it looks a bit rich at a P/E of 50. It does make money, so it is not an internet stock horror story, like the early 2000’s, but they need to keep innovating their asses off to make the stock worth more than its current price.
Generally, I think the market is fairly valued, at best, and heading for a good correction, at worst. I am stockpiling cash–though unfortunately, in US dollars.

[one_muggle]

do financials and mortgages banks continue to drop or are they at the bottom of this subprime mess? And gold/siler are at or near all time highs – is it too late to get in, or will the dollar continue to decline?

Does anyone else think Google is overpriced?

IMHO:
Banking problems, both stock and real world, are only getting started. Though there will be some better banks that get punished with the bad–I think there is a big buying opportunity in individual bank stocks because of this, but the sector in general continues to suck.

I’ve seen enough people that were more informed and smarter than me get burned in currency, so I avoid pure currency plays. I prefer buying companies that make money even if the dollar tanks-such as most multinationals. If i had to put short term money on currency, I would bet heavy against the dollar, but long term I think the dollar is starting to be oversold.

For Google, again short term I am not fighting the trend (which is up), but I think it looks a bit rich at a P/E of 50. It does make money, so it is not an internet stock horror story, like the early 2000’s, but they need to keep innovating their asses off to make the stock worth more than its current price.
Generally, I think the market is fairly valued, at best, and heading for a good correction, at worst. I am stockpiling cash–though unfortunately, in US dollars.

[Coronita]

Cooprider,

 Rehtorical question wrto goog.

 While it's P/E is 50, consider Yahoo. It's P/E is 53. This sector imho is way overpriced, but relative to it's peers, is google really that much more overpriced, considering they are pretty much kicking everyone else's ass in the sector, and it on a much more belieable growth than the likes of say Yahoo? Long term, maybe things will become more rationale. But for the time being, I wouldn't be betting against the tread

No, i don't own google shares, though I wish I bought in at the dutch auction when it IPOed.

 

 

[Coronita]

Cooprider,

 Rehtorical question wrto goog.

 While it's P/E is 50, consider Yahoo. It's P/E is 53. This sector imho is way overpriced, but relative to it's peers, is google really that much more overpriced, considering they are pretty much kicking everyone else's ass in the sector, and it on a much more belieable growth than the likes of say Yahoo? Long term, maybe things will become more rationale. But for the time being, I wouldn't be betting against the tread

No, i don't own google shares, though I wish I bought in at the dutch auction when it IPOed.

 

 

[Coronita]

Cooprider,

 Rehtorical question wrto goog.

 While it's P/E is 50, consider Yahoo. It's P/E is 53. This sector imho is way overpriced, but relative to it's peers, is google really that much more overpriced, considering they are pretty much kicking everyone else's ass in the sector, and it on a much more belieable growth than the likes of say Yahoo? Long term, maybe things will become more rationale. But for the time being, I wouldn't be betting against the tread

No, i don't own google shares, though I wish I bought in at the dutch auction when it IPOed.

 

 

[Coronita]

Cooprider,

 Rehtorical question wrto goog.

 While it's P/E is 50, consider Yahoo. It's P/E is 53. This sector imho is way overpriced, but relative to it's peers, is google really that much more overpriced, considering they are pretty much kicking everyone else's ass in the sector, and it on a much more belieable growth than the likes of say Yahoo? Long term, maybe things will become more rationale. But for the time being, I wouldn't be betting against the tread

No, i don't own google shares, though I wish I bought in at the dutch auction when it IPOed.

 

 

[cr]

What do the active traders here think – do financials and mortgages banks continue to drop or are they at the bottom of this subprime mess? And gold/siler are at or near all time highs – is it too late to get in, or will the dollar continue to decline?

Does anyone else think Google is overpriced?

[cr]

What do the active traders here think – do financials and mortgages banks continue to drop or are they at the bottom of this subprime mess? And gold/siler are at or near all time highs – is it too late to get in, or will the dollar continue to decline?

Does anyone else think Google is overpriced?

[cr]

What do the active traders here think – do financials and mortgages banks continue to drop or are they at the bottom of this subprime mess? And gold/siler are at or near all time highs – is it too late to get in, or will the dollar continue to decline?

Does anyone else think Google is overpriced?

[drunkle]

sorta off topic, but…

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071108/bs_nm/morganstanley_subprime_dc_4

“The investment bank said it has reduced its net exposure to U.S. subprime debt — defined as the potential loss if all of the debt’s value were wiped out — to $6 billion as of October 31 from $10.4 billion as of August 31.

It has also reduced its total exposure to asset-backed collateralized debt obligations and related subprime debt to $9.3 billion on October 31 from $12.3 billion on August 31.”

how did they reduce their exposure? isn’t the point of the “credit crisis” and the unknown valuation of cdo’s the fact that people aren’t buying them?

how did any of the other investment banks do it? or is “reduction of exposure” a euphemism for the write downs?

edit:
or the fed accepted them as collateral?

[drunkle]

sorta off topic, but…

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071108/bs_nm/morganstanley_subprime_dc_4

“The investment bank said it has reduced its net exposure to U.S. subprime debt — defined as the potential loss if all of the debt’s value were wiped out — to $6 billion as of October 31 from $10.4 billion as of August 31.

It has also reduced its total exposure to asset-backed collateralized debt obligations and related subprime debt to $9.3 billion on October 31 from $12.3 billion on August 31.”

how did they reduce their exposure? isn’t the point of the “credit crisis” and the unknown valuation of cdo’s the fact that people aren’t buying them?

how did any of the other investment banks do it? or is “reduction of exposure” a euphemism for the write downs?

edit:
or the fed accepted them as collateral?

[drunkle]

sorta off topic, but…

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071108/bs_nm/morganstanley_subprime_dc_4

“The investment bank said it has reduced its net exposure to U.S. subprime debt — defined as the potential loss if all of the debt’s value were wiped out — to $6 billion as of October 31 from $10.4 billion as of August 31.

It has also reduced its total exposure to asset-backed collateralized debt obligations and related subprime debt to $9.3 billion on October 31 from $12.3 billion on August 31.”

how did they reduce their exposure? isn’t the point of the “credit crisis” and the unknown valuation of cdo’s the fact that people aren’t buying them?

how did any of the other investment banks do it? or is “reduction of exposure” a euphemism for the write downs?

edit:
or the fed accepted them as collateral?

[Eugene]

On the positive side, my S&P put options are back to pre-rate cut levels and my gold and foreign currency deposits are hitting new highs every day.

[Eugene]

On the positive side, my S&P put options are back to pre-rate cut levels and my gold and foreign currency deposits are hitting new highs every day.

[Eugene]

On the positive side, my S&P put options are back to pre-rate cut levels and my gold and foreign currency deposits are hitting new highs every day.

[cr]

Everyone is so surprised that the banks who bought and sold all the bad loans are now paying the price. There’s even talk that this will extend to car loans and credit card debt.

People are out of money. So what does Wall Street want? More rate cuts…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/21677381/site/14081545

Amazing.

[cr]

Everyone is so surprised that the banks who bought and sold all the bad loans are now paying the price. There’s even talk that this will extend to car loans and credit card debt.

People are out of money. So what does Wall Street want? More rate cuts…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/21677381/site/14081545

Amazing.

[cr]

Everyone is so surprised that the banks who bought and sold all the bad loans are now paying the price. There’s even talk that this will extend to car loans and credit card debt.

People are out of money. So what does Wall Street want? More rate cuts…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/21677381/site/14081545

Amazing.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Dave, Ironically I read this blog for the first time in quite awhile just to see if everyone was celebrating today’s action. I posted a chart on my blog that shows visually what I think is going to happen, but to summarize, I have been expecting the low to be made in Dec – March, which should launch a significant rally through the end of 08, but at what level it will start from I cannot say. I have begun to buy back in during the last week on weakness hoping to add as we go down. I am short the S&P on todays open and just took some of that position off with the very weak globex session that is currently underway. This trade was obviously a very nice gain. It may continue to drop but it was a short term trade and I was just following my rules.

I would not be surprised to see us continue down here for a bit, but my model still as of last Friday has no sell signal anywhere in sight, so it is a buy on weakness for those who can stomach it. I overrode my model when I exited based on a judgement call, which really was not that good at the time due to being a bit early, but looks better now. I had been sitting in cash for the last few weeks waiting for this drop so I could buy on the dip.

I do not watch internals too much because they do not give any leading views on what is likely to happen next, they only tell you what is obvious by just looking at the price action alone. However, the A/D line has been diverging during the run up which I pointed out in my blog a few days ago. This was not a good sign for the near term.

The PPT is hard at work via the bogus 3.9 GDP and revised employment numbers, to try and hold this thing up, but that is just my opinion and far from a fact. It is very hard to believe we have that level of growth going on. Election years have generally been good years to be long stocks historically, so with low rates, I see no reason why 08 will be any different. However, if my model flashes a sell, I will run for the hills without injecting any opinions into it. If the Dems get the house and raise taxes, look out below in 09.

Best wishes to everyone for a great 2008, I will stop in from time to time and if I think there is anything I can add of value I will do so. Even though there are many great people in here, the general negativity was just wearing on me too much to read each day.

[sdrealtor]

Great to hear from you Chris. Many of the loudest uberbears have left the building though a few are still around and a few new guys have popped up.

Looking forward to hearing from you occassionally and hope you are enjoying your new digs. If you like italian, try Carmella’s around the corner from you (its behind Fry’s off the 78). I met my wife about 15 years ago at a bar/restaurant back East owned by relatives of the owners. It’s a good family owned restaurant and we enjoy eating there regularly.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Great to hear from you Chris. Many of the loudest uberbears have left the building though a few are still around and a few new guys have popped up.

Looking forward to hearing from you occassionally and hope you are enjoying your new digs. If you like italian, try Carmella’s around the corner from you (its behind Fry’s off the 78). I met my wife about 15 years ago at a bar/restaurant back East owned by relatives of the owners. It’s a good family owned restaurant and we enjoy eating there regularly.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Great to hear from you Chris. Many of the loudest uberbears have left the building though a few are still around and a few new guys have popped up.

Looking forward to hearing from you occassionally and hope you are enjoying your new digs. If you like italian, try Carmella’s around the corner from you (its behind Fry’s off the 78). I met my wife about 15 years ago at a bar/restaurant back East owned by relatives of the owners. It’s a good family owned restaurant and we enjoy eating there regularly.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Great to hear from you Chris. Many of the loudest uberbears have left the building though a few are still around and a few new guys have popped up.

Looking forward to hearing from you occassionally and hope you are enjoying your new digs. If you like italian, try Carmella’s around the corner from you (its behind Fry’s off the 78). I met my wife about 15 years ago at a bar/restaurant back East owned by relatives of the owners. It’s a good family owned restaurant and we enjoy eating there regularly.

sdr

[davelj]

Chris,

Thanks for posting. As a non-trader (and principally non stock market investor) I still watch stocks somewhat closely. As you know from my previous posts, I’m medium-to-long term bearish (and have been for some time) although I acknowledge that in the short term anything is possible. I’ll be very interested to see if your indicators flash sell before all hell REALLY breaks loose (as I anticipate at some point over the next 6 months). Or, who knows… maybe we just motor back to new highs. Good luck and stay in touch!

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Chris – Thanks for checking back in. We appreciate the insight. I know it can be frustrating presenting a balanced and sometimes positive case inside the den of bears. But again it is greatly appreciated.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Higgy, yes still in the new place, it is hard to know for sure, but I doubt I will ever sell this place. However, once another positive RE cycle starts, whenever that is, I am probably going to be bought out by a developer, due to this being choice land that could have many homes built on it all with ocean views. Barring that, I will stay here. They are already trying to push a road through this canyon and then annex the land, so once this happens, and they get the zoning changed to allow the lots to be subdivided, it will just be a matter of time. This will be 10 yrs or so I think.

On to Gold, etc.. As a trader and not an investor, I am actively looking for a place to short GOLD, my full reasoning for this is too long for a post, but in general, this move is being driven by speculators and not the commercials. The commercials have their heaviest short position in history right now, so no way I would ever buy in that scenario. There is a graphic depiction of this on my blog, I do not recall what day I posted it so you may have to scroll to find it. However, as I have told some of my clients, if you own Gold there is no reason to sell it until the trend breaks, which it is nowhere near doing at this point. I do feel we will see a sharp break in that market, that will come out of the blue to most who do not watch the commercials, but from what level it is impossible to say. I do not stand in front of freight trains, I will wait for some type of short term break down before shorting.

Dave, there are so many cross currents in the markets right now that it is very difficult from a discretionary standpoint to make a solid decision in my view. It is for this and many other reasons, that I have developed mechanical approaches. They have their shortcomings, but they remove emotion which is very important during a time like this. I hope my model flashes an exit before a major crash if one happens. However, I just look at it as another trade, so if I am wrong I will just get out. Ironically, the 5 stocks I am legging into did not drop yesterday, one went down .50 and the rest were green. A big component of my model is rates, so we will need to see a big rise there before a sell will show up. It is designed to catch the major trends, not all the wiggles, where I use my shorter term approaches, etc..

[ctlmdjb]

Chris – what’s the URL of your blog?

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/

I do not post every day, but when I feel I have something worth discussing I throw it out there

[mrwrong]

Chris,

I visit your blog regularly and always enjoy your posts. You need to post more often, man.

Mr. Wrong

[cr]

Interesting to look back almost exactly a year ago at this. I wish I had followed my hunch on Google. $700-$300 in 12 months?! Ouch.

Of course, 13,300 – 8,600 isn’t much better.

[cr]

Interesting to look back almost exactly a year ago at this. I wish I had followed my hunch on Google. $700-$300 in 12 months?! Ouch.

Of course, 13,300 – 8,600 isn’t much better.

[cr]

Interesting to look back almost exactly a year ago at this. I wish I had followed my hunch on Google. $700-$300 in 12 months?! Ouch.

Of course, 13,300 – 8,600 isn’t much better.

[cr]

Interesting to look back almost exactly a year ago at this. I wish I had followed my hunch on Google. $700-$300 in 12 months?! Ouch.

Of course, 13,300 – 8,600 isn’t much better.

[cr]

Interesting to look back almost exactly a year ago at this. I wish I had followed my hunch on Google. $700-$300 in 12 months?! Ouch.

Of course, 13,300 – 8,600 isn’t much better.

[mrwrong]

Chris,

I visit your blog regularly and always enjoy your posts. You need to post more often, man.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Chris,

I visit your blog regularly and always enjoy your posts. You need to post more often, man.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Chris,

I visit your blog regularly and always enjoy your posts. You need to post more often, man.

Mr. Wrong

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/

I do not post every day, but when I feel I have something worth discussing I throw it out there

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/

I do not post every day, but when I feel I have something worth discussing I throw it out there

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/

I do not post every day, but when I feel I have something worth discussing I throw it out there

[ctlmdjb]

Chris – what’s the URL of your blog?

[ctlmdjb]

Chris – what’s the URL of your blog?

[ctlmdjb]

Chris – what’s the URL of your blog?

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Higgy, yes still in the new place, it is hard to know for sure, but I doubt I will ever sell this place. However, once another positive RE cycle starts, whenever that is, I am probably going to be bought out by a developer, due to this being choice land that could have many homes built on it all with ocean views. Barring that, I will stay here. They are already trying to push a road through this canyon and then annex the land, so once this happens, and they get the zoning changed to allow the lots to be subdivided, it will just be a matter of time. This will be 10 yrs or so I think.

On to Gold, etc.. As a trader and not an investor, I am actively looking for a place to short GOLD, my full reasoning for this is too long for a post, but in general, this move is being driven by speculators and not the commercials. The commercials have their heaviest short position in history right now, so no way I would ever buy in that scenario. There is a graphic depiction of this on my blog, I do not recall what day I posted it so you may have to scroll to find it. However, as I have told some of my clients, if you own Gold there is no reason to sell it until the trend breaks, which it is nowhere near doing at this point. I do feel we will see a sharp break in that market, that will come out of the blue to most who do not watch the commercials, but from what level it is impossible to say. I do not stand in front of freight trains, I will wait for some type of short term break down before shorting.

Dave, there are so many cross currents in the markets right now that it is very difficult from a discretionary standpoint to make a solid decision in my view. It is for this and many other reasons, that I have developed mechanical approaches. They have their shortcomings, but they remove emotion which is very important during a time like this. I hope my model flashes an exit before a major crash if one happens. However, I just look at it as another trade, so if I am wrong I will just get out. Ironically, the 5 stocks I am legging into did not drop yesterday, one went down .50 and the rest were green. A big component of my model is rates, so we will need to see a big rise there before a sell will show up. It is designed to catch the major trends, not all the wiggles, where I use my shorter term approaches, etc..

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Higgy, yes still in the new place, it is hard to know for sure, but I doubt I will ever sell this place. However, once another positive RE cycle starts, whenever that is, I am probably going to be bought out by a developer, due to this being choice land that could have many homes built on it all with ocean views. Barring that, I will stay here. They are already trying to push a road through this canyon and then annex the land, so once this happens, and they get the zoning changed to allow the lots to be subdivided, it will just be a matter of time. This will be 10 yrs or so I think.

On to Gold, etc.. As a trader and not an investor, I am actively looking for a place to short GOLD, my full reasoning for this is too long for a post, but in general, this move is being driven by speculators and not the commercials. The commercials have their heaviest short position in history right now, so no way I would ever buy in that scenario. There is a graphic depiction of this on my blog, I do not recall what day I posted it so you may have to scroll to find it. However, as I have told some of my clients, if you own Gold there is no reason to sell it until the trend breaks, which it is nowhere near doing at this point. I do feel we will see a sharp break in that market, that will come out of the blue to most who do not watch the commercials, but from what level it is impossible to say. I do not stand in front of freight trains, I will wait for some type of short term break down before shorting.

Dave, there are so many cross currents in the markets right now that it is very difficult from a discretionary standpoint to make a solid decision in my view. It is for this and many other reasons, that I have developed mechanical approaches. They have their shortcomings, but they remove emotion which is very important during a time like this. I hope my model flashes an exit before a major crash if one happens. However, I just look at it as another trade, so if I am wrong I will just get out. Ironically, the 5 stocks I am legging into did not drop yesterday, one went down .50 and the rest were green. A big component of my model is rates, so we will need to see a big rise there before a sell will show up. It is designed to catch the major trends, not all the wiggles, where I use my shorter term approaches, etc..

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Higgy, yes still in the new place, it is hard to know for sure, but I doubt I will ever sell this place. However, once another positive RE cycle starts, whenever that is, I am probably going to be bought out by a developer, due to this being choice land that could have many homes built on it all with ocean views. Barring that, I will stay here. They are already trying to push a road through this canyon and then annex the land, so once this happens, and they get the zoning changed to allow the lots to be subdivided, it will just be a matter of time. This will be 10 yrs or so I think.

On to Gold, etc.. As a trader and not an investor, I am actively looking for a place to short GOLD, my full reasoning for this is too long for a post, but in general, this move is being driven by speculators and not the commercials. The commercials have their heaviest short position in history right now, so no way I would ever buy in that scenario. There is a graphic depiction of this on my blog, I do not recall what day I posted it so you may have to scroll to find it. However, as I have told some of my clients, if you own Gold there is no reason to sell it until the trend breaks, which it is nowhere near doing at this point. I do feel we will see a sharp break in that market, that will come out of the blue to most who do not watch the commercials, but from what level it is impossible to say. I do not stand in front of freight trains, I will wait for some type of short term break down before shorting.

Dave, there are so many cross currents in the markets right now that it is very difficult from a discretionary standpoint to make a solid decision in my view. It is for this and many other reasons, that I have developed mechanical approaches. They have their shortcomings, but they remove emotion which is very important during a time like this. I hope my model flashes an exit before a major crash if one happens. However, I just look at it as another trade, so if I am wrong I will just get out. Ironically, the 5 stocks I am legging into did not drop yesterday, one went down .50 and the rest were green. A big component of my model is rates, so we will need to see a big rise there before a sell will show up. It is designed to catch the major trends, not all the wiggles, where I use my shorter term approaches, etc..

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Chris – Thanks for checking back in. We appreciate the insight. I know it can be frustrating presenting a balanced and sometimes positive case inside the den of bears. But again it is greatly appreciated.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Chris – Thanks for checking back in. We appreciate the insight. I know it can be frustrating presenting a balanced and sometimes positive case inside the den of bears. But again it is greatly appreciated.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Chris – Thanks for checking back in. We appreciate the insight. I know it can be frustrating presenting a balanced and sometimes positive case inside the den of bears. But again it is greatly appreciated.

[davelj]

Chris,

Thanks for posting. As a non-trader (and principally non stock market investor) I still watch stocks somewhat closely. As you know from my previous posts, I’m medium-to-long term bearish (and have been for some time) although I acknowledge that in the short term anything is possible. I’ll be very interested to see if your indicators flash sell before all hell REALLY breaks loose (as I anticipate at some point over the next 6 months). Or, who knows… maybe we just motor back to new highs. Good luck and stay in touch!

[davelj]

Chris,

Thanks for posting. As a non-trader (and principally non stock market investor) I still watch stocks somewhat closely. As you know from my previous posts, I’m medium-to-long term bearish (and have been for some time) although I acknowledge that in the short term anything is possible. I’ll be very interested to see if your indicators flash sell before all hell REALLY breaks loose (as I anticipate at some point over the next 6 months). Or, who knows… maybe we just motor back to new highs. Good luck and stay in touch!

[davelj]

Chris,

Thanks for posting. As a non-trader (and principally non stock market investor) I still watch stocks somewhat closely. As you know from my previous posts, I’m medium-to-long term bearish (and have been for some time) although I acknowledge that in the short term anything is possible. I’ll be very interested to see if your indicators flash sell before all hell REALLY breaks loose (as I anticipate at some point over the next 6 months). Or, who knows… maybe we just motor back to new highs. Good luck and stay in touch!

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Dave, Ironically I read this blog for the first time in quite awhile just to see if everyone was celebrating today’s action. I posted a chart on my blog that shows visually what I think is going to happen, but to summarize, I have been expecting the low to be made in Dec – March, which should launch a significant rally through the end of 08, but at what level it will start from I cannot say. I have begun to buy back in during the last week on weakness hoping to add as we go down. I am short the S&P on todays open and just took some of that position off with the very weak globex session that is currently underway. This trade was obviously a very nice gain. It may continue to drop but it was a short term trade and I was just following my rules.

I would not be surprised to see us continue down here for a bit, but my model still as of last Friday has no sell signal anywhere in sight, so it is a buy on weakness for those who can stomach it. I overrode my model when I exited based on a judgement call, which really was not that good at the time due to being a bit early, but looks better now. I had been sitting in cash for the last few weeks waiting for this drop so I could buy on the dip.

I do not watch internals too much because they do not give any leading views on what is likely to happen next, they only tell you what is obvious by just looking at the price action alone. However, the A/D line has been diverging during the run up which I pointed out in my blog a few days ago. This was not a good sign for the near term.

The PPT is hard at work via the bogus 3.9 GDP and revised employment numbers, to try and hold this thing up, but that is just my opinion and far from a fact. It is very hard to believe we have that level of growth going on. Election years have generally been good years to be long stocks historically, so with low rates, I see no reason why 08 will be any different. However, if my model flashes a sell, I will run for the hills without injecting any opinions into it. If the Dems get the house and raise taxes, look out below in 09.

Best wishes to everyone for a great 2008, I will stop in from time to time and if I think there is anything I can add of value I will do so. Even though there are many great people in here, the general negativity was just wearing on me too much to read each day.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Dave, Ironically I read this blog for the first time in quite awhile just to see if everyone was celebrating today’s action. I posted a chart on my blog that shows visually what I think is going to happen, but to summarize, I have been expecting the low to be made in Dec – March, which should launch a significant rally through the end of 08, but at what level it will start from I cannot say. I have begun to buy back in during the last week on weakness hoping to add as we go down. I am short the S&P on todays open and just took some of that position off with the very weak globex session that is currently underway. This trade was obviously a very nice gain. It may continue to drop but it was a short term trade and I was just following my rules.

I would not be surprised to see us continue down here for a bit, but my model still as of last Friday has no sell signal anywhere in sight, so it is a buy on weakness for those who can stomach it. I overrode my model when I exited based on a judgement call, which really was not that good at the time due to being a bit early, but looks better now. I had been sitting in cash for the last few weeks waiting for this drop so I could buy on the dip.

I do not watch internals too much because they do not give any leading views on what is likely to happen next, they only tell you what is obvious by just looking at the price action alone. However, the A/D line has been diverging during the run up which I pointed out in my blog a few days ago. This was not a good sign for the near term.

The PPT is hard at work via the bogus 3.9 GDP and revised employment numbers, to try and hold this thing up, but that is just my opinion and far from a fact. It is very hard to believe we have that level of growth going on. Election years have generally been good years to be long stocks historically, so with low rates, I see no reason why 08 will be any different. However, if my model flashes a sell, I will run for the hills without injecting any opinions into it. If the Dems get the house and raise taxes, look out below in 09.

Best wishes to everyone for a great 2008, I will stop in from time to time and if I think there is anything I can add of value I will do so. Even though there are many great people in here, the general negativity was just wearing on me too much to read each day.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Chris Johnston

Dave, Ironically I read this blog for the first time in quite awhile just to see if everyone was celebrating today’s action. I posted a chart on my blog that shows visually what I think is going to happen, but to summarize, I have been expecting the low to be made in Dec – March, which should launch a significant rally through the end of 08, but at what level it will start from I cannot say. I have begun to buy back in during the last week on weakness hoping to add as we go down. I am short the S&P on todays open and just took some of that position off with the very weak globex session that is currently underway. This trade was obviously a very nice gain. It may continue to drop but it was a short term trade and I was just following my rules.

I would not be surprised to see us continue down here for a bit, but my model still as of last Friday has no sell signal anywhere in sight, so it is a buy on weakness for those who can stomach it. I overrode my model when I exited based on a judgement call, which really was not that good at the time due to being a bit early, but looks better now. I had been sitting in cash for the last few weeks waiting for this drop so I could buy on the dip.

I do not watch internals too much because they do not give any leading views on what is likely to happen next, they only tell you what is obvious by just looking at the price action alone. However, the A/D line has been diverging during the run up which I pointed out in my blog a few days ago. This was not a good sign for the near term.

The PPT is hard at work via the bogus 3.9 GDP and revised employment numbers, to try and hold this thing up, but that is just my opinion and far from a fact. It is very hard to believe we have that level of growth going on. Election years have generally been good years to be long stocks historically, so with low rates, I see no reason why 08 will be any different. However, if my model flashes a sell, I will run for the hills without injecting any opinions into it. If the Dems get the house and raise taxes, look out below in 09.

Best wishes to everyone for a great 2008, I will stop in from time to time and if I think there is anything I can add of value I will do so. Even though there are many great people in here, the general negativity was just wearing on me too much to read each day.

[davelj]

Where is trader Chris Johnson? He made a great trading call back at the trough of the last decline and stuck with his long positions and then we had a melt up.

Chris, I don’t trade but I’m curious: Any change in your thinking these days? The internals of the market must look horrible – very narrow leadership and the financials are tanking.

As for myself, I think the ability of this market to keep pulling itself out of the abyss is on borrowed time. The broader indices seem to be defying what’s going on around them. But who knows…

[davelj]

Where is trader Chris Johnson? He made a great trading call back at the trough of the last decline and stuck with his long positions and then we had a melt up.

Chris, I don’t trade but I’m curious: Any change in your thinking these days? The internals of the market must look horrible – very narrow leadership and the financials are tanking.

As for myself, I think the ability of this market to keep pulling itself out of the abyss is on borrowed time. The broader indices seem to be defying what’s going on around them. But who knows…

[davelj]

Where is trader Chris Johnson? He made a great trading call back at the trough of the last decline and stuck with his long positions and then we had a melt up.

Chris, I don’t trade but I’m curious: Any change in your thinking these days? The internals of the market must look horrible – very narrow leadership and the financials are tanking.

As for myself, I think the ability of this market to keep pulling itself out of the abyss is on borrowed time. The broader indices seem to be defying what’s going on around them. But who knows…

[gold_dredger_phd]

It dropped even more in terms of Euros. I should have taken my own advice and ditched my US holdings and put them in Euros or pounds.

The house that I helped to buy in 2002 did not go up in price if it was measured in Euros.

Thank Alan Greenspan for this mess.

[gold_dredger_phd]

It dropped even more in terms of Euros. I should have taken my own advice and ditched my US holdings and put them in Euros or pounds.

The house that I helped to buy in 2002 did not go up in price if it was measured in Euros.

Thank Alan Greenspan for this mess.

[gold_dredger_phd]

It dropped even more in terms of Euros. I should have taken my own advice and ditched my US holdings and put them in Euros or pounds.

The house that I helped to buy in 2002 did not go up in price if it was measured in Euros.

Thank Alan Greenspan for this mess.

[gold_dredger_phd]

It dropped even more in terms of Euros. I should have taken my own advice and ditched my US holdings and put them in Euros or pounds.

The house that I helped to buy in 2002 did not go up in price if it was measured in Euros.

Thank Alan Greenspan for this mess.

[CAwireman]

I remember meeting Chris at one of the meet ups.

He had moved into a nice, nice place. Still there, right? The one with the view?

HiggyBaby

(Formerly known as cawireman)

[CAwireman]

I remember meeting Chris at one of the meet ups.

He had moved into a nice, nice place. Still there, right? The one with the view?

HiggyBaby

(Formerly known as cawireman)

[CAwireman]

I remember meeting Chris at one of the meet ups.

He had moved into a nice, nice place. Still there, right? The one with the view?

HiggyBaby

(Formerly known as cawireman)

[CAwireman]

I remember meeting Chris at one of the meet ups.

He had moved into a nice, nice place. Still there, right? The one with the view?

HiggyBaby

(Formerly known as cawireman)

[Author]

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