- This topic has 81 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 5 months ago by
cr.
-
AuthorPosts
-
November 8, 2007 at 9:16 AM #97370November 8, 2007 at 9:40 AM #97308
Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantChris Johnston
Higgy, yes still in the new place, it is hard to know for sure, but I doubt I will ever sell this place. However, once another positive RE cycle starts, whenever that is, I am probably going to be bought out by a developer, due to this being choice land that could have many homes built on it all with ocean views. Barring that, I will stay here. They are already trying to push a road through this canyon and then annex the land, so once this happens, and they get the zoning changed to allow the lots to be subdivided, it will just be a matter of time. This will be 10 yrs or so I think.
On to Gold, etc.. As a trader and not an investor, I am actively looking for a place to short GOLD, my full reasoning for this is too long for a post, but in general, this move is being driven by speculators and not the commercials. The commercials have their heaviest short position in history right now, so no way I would ever buy in that scenario. There is a graphic depiction of this on my blog, I do not recall what day I posted it so you may have to scroll to find it. However, as I have told some of my clients, if you own Gold there is no reason to sell it until the trend breaks, which it is nowhere near doing at this point. I do feel we will see a sharp break in that market, that will come out of the blue to most who do not watch the commercials, but from what level it is impossible to say. I do not stand in front of freight trains, I will wait for some type of short term break down before shorting.
Dave, there are so many cross currents in the markets right now that it is very difficult from a discretionary standpoint to make a solid decision in my view. It is for this and many other reasons, that I have developed mechanical approaches. They have their shortcomings, but they remove emotion which is very important during a time like this. I hope my model flashes an exit before a major crash if one happens. However, I just look at it as another trade, so if I am wrong I will just get out. Ironically, the 5 stocks I am legging into did not drop yesterday, one went down .50 and the rest were green. A big component of my model is rates, so we will need to see a big rise there before a sell will show up. It is designed to catch the major trends, not all the wiggles, where I use my shorter term approaches, etc..
November 8, 2007 at 9:40 AM #97371ParticipantChris Johnston
Higgy, yes still in the new place, it is hard to know for sure, but I doubt I will ever sell this place. However, once another positive RE cycle starts, whenever that is, I am probably going to be bought out by a developer, due to this being choice land that could have many homes built on it all with ocean views. Barring that, I will stay here. They are already trying to push a road through this canyon and then annex the land, so once this happens, and they get the zoning changed to allow the lots to be subdivided, it will just be a matter of time. This will be 10 yrs or so I think.
On to Gold, etc.. As a trader and not an investor, I am actively looking for a place to short GOLD, my full reasoning for this is too long for a post, but in general, this move is being driven by speculators and not the commercials. The commercials have their heaviest short position in history right now, so no way I would ever buy in that scenario. There is a graphic depiction of this on my blog, I do not recall what day I posted it so you may have to scroll to find it. However, as I have told some of my clients, if you own Gold there is no reason to sell it until the trend breaks, which it is nowhere near doing at this point. I do feel we will see a sharp break in that market, that will come out of the blue to most who do not watch the commercials, but from what level it is impossible to say. I do not stand in front of freight trains, I will wait for some type of short term break down before shorting.
Dave, there are so many cross currents in the markets right now that it is very difficult from a discretionary standpoint to make a solid decision in my view. It is for this and many other reasons, that I have developed mechanical approaches. They have their shortcomings, but they remove emotion which is very important during a time like this. I hope my model flashes an exit before a major crash if one happens. However, I just look at it as another trade, so if I am wrong I will just get out. Ironically, the 5 stocks I am legging into did not drop yesterday, one went down .50 and the rest were green. A big component of my model is rates, so we will need to see a big rise there before a sell will show up. It is designed to catch the major trends, not all the wiggles, where I use my shorter term approaches, etc..
November 8, 2007 at 9:40 AM #97382ParticipantChris Johnston
Higgy, yes still in the new place, it is hard to know for sure, but I doubt I will ever sell this place. However, once another positive RE cycle starts, whenever that is, I am probably going to be bought out by a developer, due to this being choice land that could have many homes built on it all with ocean views. Barring that, I will stay here. They are already trying to push a road through this canyon and then annex the land, so once this happens, and they get the zoning changed to allow the lots to be subdivided, it will just be a matter of time. This will be 10 yrs or so I think.
On to Gold, etc.. As a trader and not an investor, I am actively looking for a place to short GOLD, my full reasoning for this is too long for a post, but in general, this move is being driven by speculators and not the commercials. The commercials have their heaviest short position in history right now, so no way I would ever buy in that scenario. There is a graphic depiction of this on my blog, I do not recall what day I posted it so you may have to scroll to find it. However, as I have told some of my clients, if you own Gold there is no reason to sell it until the trend breaks, which it is nowhere near doing at this point. I do feel we will see a sharp break in that market, that will come out of the blue to most who do not watch the commercials, but from what level it is impossible to say. I do not stand in front of freight trains, I will wait for some type of short term break down before shorting.
Dave, there are so many cross currents in the markets right now that it is very difficult from a discretionary standpoint to make a solid decision in my view. It is for this and many other reasons, that I have developed mechanical approaches. They have their shortcomings, but they remove emotion which is very important during a time like this. I hope my model flashes an exit before a major crash if one happens. However, I just look at it as another trade, so if I am wrong I will just get out. Ironically, the 5 stocks I am legging into did not drop yesterday, one went down .50 and the rest were green. A big component of my model is rates, so we will need to see a big rise there before a sell will show up. It is designed to catch the major trends, not all the wiggles, where I use my shorter term approaches, etc..
November 8, 2007 at 9:40 AM #97389ParticipantChris Johnston
Higgy, yes still in the new place, it is hard to know for sure, but I doubt I will ever sell this place. However, once another positive RE cycle starts, whenever that is, I am probably going to be bought out by a developer, due to this being choice land that could have many homes built on it all with ocean views. Barring that, I will stay here. They are already trying to push a road through this canyon and then annex the land, so once this happens, and they get the zoning changed to allow the lots to be subdivided, it will just be a matter of time. This will be 10 yrs or so I think.
On to Gold, etc.. As a trader and not an investor, I am actively looking for a place to short GOLD, my full reasoning for this is too long for a post, but in general, this move is being driven by speculators and not the commercials. The commercials have their heaviest short position in history right now, so no way I would ever buy in that scenario. There is a graphic depiction of this on my blog, I do not recall what day I posted it so you may have to scroll to find it. However, as I have told some of my clients, if you own Gold there is no reason to sell it until the trend breaks, which it is nowhere near doing at this point. I do feel we will see a sharp break in that market, that will come out of the blue to most who do not watch the commercials, but from what level it is impossible to say. I do not stand in front of freight trains, I will wait for some type of short term break down before shorting.
Dave, there are so many cross currents in the markets right now that it is very difficult from a discretionary standpoint to make a solid decision in my view. It is for this and many other reasons, that I have developed mechanical approaches. They have their shortcomings, but they remove emotion which is very important during a time like this. I hope my model flashes an exit before a major crash if one happens. However, I just look at it as another trade, so if I am wrong I will just get out. Ironically, the 5 stocks I am legging into did not drop yesterday, one went down .50 and the rest were green. A big component of my model is rates, so we will need to see a big rise there before a sell will show up. It is designed to catch the major trends, not all the wiggles, where I use my shorter term approaches, etc..
November 8, 2007 at 10:36 AM #97360ctlmdjb
ParticipantChris – what’s the URL of your blog?
November 8, 2007 at 10:36 AM #97423ParticipantChris – what’s the URL of your blog?
November 8, 2007 at 10:36 AM #97434ParticipantChris – what’s the URL of your blog?
November 8, 2007 at 10:36 AM #97441ParticipantChris – what’s the URL of your blog?
November 8, 2007 at 5:55 PM #97510ParticipantChris Johnston
http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/
I do not post every day, but when I feel I have something worth discussing I throw it out there
November 8, 2007 at 5:55 PM #97571ParticipantChris Johnston
http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/
I do not post every day, but when I feel I have something worth discussing I throw it out there
November 8, 2007 at 5:55 PM #97582ParticipantChris Johnston
http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/
I do not post every day, but when I feel I have something worth discussing I throw it out there
November 8, 2007 at 5:55 PM #97588ParticipantChris Johnston
http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/
I do not post every day, but when I feel I have something worth discussing I throw it out there
November 8, 2007 at 9:20 PM #97549mrwrong
ParticipantChris,
I visit your blog regularly and always enjoy your posts. You need to post more often, man.
Mr. Wrong
November 8, 2007 at 9:20 PM #97611ParticipantChris,
I visit your blog regularly and always enjoy your posts. You need to post more often, man.
Mr. Wrong
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.