$100 barrel of oil, here we come….

[Coronita]

Oy Veh. If I only held on to all my shares of ChevronTexaco and VDE spider instead of selling 1/2 a few months ago…..

 

Time to rethink future  car purchases. Goodbye Audi S5/S6…Hello Toyota Prius. Yet, if only the tesla roadster were in my range of affordability 🙁

http://www.teslamotors.com/

Why can't someone build a damn electric car sedan with decent performance and a good price… 

 

—–

 

SINGAPORE (AP) — The price of oil rose to a new record above $96 a barrel Thursday after a surprise drop in U.S. crude stockpiles raised concerns about supplies for coming winter demand. Other energy futures also gained.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's move to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point also supported prices.

It was the second week in a row the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a sharp and unexpected drop in oil inventories.

"The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories has been a key driver of oil prices," said David Moore, commodity strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery rose as high as $96.24 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late morning in Singapore. Prices later receded to $96.05 a barrel.

Crude prices have reached inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980. Depending on the how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be worth $96 to more than $101 today.

"We are stepping into an unknown area. Nobody wants to sell (given the fear of a) further rise," broker Ken Hasegawa of Fimat Japan told Dow Jones Newswires.

The December Nymex crude contract rose $4.15 Wednesday to a record settlement price of $94.53 a barrel.

December Brent crude futures also surged to a new trading record of $91.63 a barrel Thursday on the ICE futures exchange in London, up $1 from the previous session.

In its weekly inventory report, the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said oil supplies fell by 3.9 million barrels last week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, on average, had expected an increase of 100,000 barrels.

"The report acted to solidify concerns about the possibility of tightening market conditions ahead of the northern winter," Moore said.

Much of that decline was due to a big drop in crude supplies at a closely watched oil terminal in Cushing, Okla.

Cushing supplies have been under pressure in recent months due to differences in the price between front-month oil contracts and those for delivery in future months. This price difference, or spread, has given storage tank owners a financial incentive to sell their oil, rather than hold it in inventory. Analysts have also blamed falling Cushing supplies, in part, for the rally in which oil prices have jumped 35 percent since August.

The EIA also reported that refinery activity fell by 0.9 percentage point last week to 86.2 percent of capacity. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.5 percentage point.

Supplies of gasoline rose last week by 1.3 million barrels. Analysts expected a 400,000-barrel decrease.

And inventories of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, rose by 800,000 barrels. Analysts had expected a 1 million barrel decrease.

Also supporting oil futures was the U.S. central bank's move to cut interest rates.

Interest rate cuts generally support oil prices because they tend to send the U.S. dollar downward; the dollar is already at multiple-decade lows against major currencies.

Oil futures have been driven to record levels in recent months partly because they offer a hedge against a weak dollar.

Other energy futures followed oil's lead. Nymex December heating oil rose 2.65 cents to $2.558 a gallon, while December gasoline futures added 2.64 cents to $2.5697 a gallon.

Natural gas futures advanced 7.6 cents to $8.406 per 1,000 cubic feet.

[hipmatt]

100 per barrel could happen this week, and so can 800 per ounce of gold.

I wonder if the commuters of Temecula / Murrieta will be thanking Bernanke for the rate cut once the cost of this high priced oil makes it to the pumps?

[hipmatt]

100 per barrel could happen this week, and so can 800 per ounce of gold.

I wonder if the commuters of Temecula / Murrieta will be thanking Bernanke for the rate cut once the cost of this high priced oil makes it to the pumps?

[hipmatt]

100 per barrel could happen this week, and so can 800 per ounce of gold.

I wonder if the commuters of Temecula / Murrieta will be thanking Bernanke for the rate cut once the cost of this high priced oil makes it to the pumps?

[Arraya]

Bernake is not totally to blame, we are approaching peak…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

It’s only gonna get worse from here. Energy wars here we come…. Oh, wait we all ready started one.

Here is the Piggington equivalent to the energy market.

http://www.theoildrum.com

[Arraya]

Bernake is not totally to blame, we are approaching peak…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

It’s only gonna get worse from here. Energy wars here we come…. Oh, wait we all ready started one.

Here is the Piggington equivalent to the energy market.

http://www.theoildrum.com

[Arraya]

Bernake is not totally to blame, we are approaching peak…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

It’s only gonna get worse from here. Energy wars here we come…. Oh, wait we all ready started one.

Here is the Piggington equivalent to the energy market.

http://www.theoildrum.com

[one_muggle]

Though I agree oil/energy is and will continue to be a problem, I take issue with all the peak-oil gloom and doom.

The very simplified “Peak oil” predictions all assume that there is a somewhat fixed amount of oil ready to be pumped, but that is not true. Even ignoring future discoveries, the amount of oil that can be pumped depends on the price of oil. As the value of oil increases, it becomes more feasible to pump out the hard-to-get (and thus more expensive) stuff. Also, it becomes more attractive to refine the high-sulfur petroleum–again, since this stuff is harder to refine, it is more expensive. The available oil in the Hubbert curve assumes that only a fraction of the oil is gettable–OK that is not really a word…
Somewhat perversely, high oil prices makes more oil accessible–not what the greenies had hoped, I expect. Maybe they should spend a little more time in science class and less time reading Chomsky. ;^)
Last I checked, $120 oil makes wind economically practical–don’t recall the number for solar. I think it might be around $75 in the SW and $150 in the NE, but I’m not sure. I do know that a commercial solar concentrator is going on-line soon in the SW (Arizona, I think)–something Junction… that will be interesting.
Either way, it’s sure to kick the crap out of the long distance commuter–probably good for everyone, in the long run. Short run… well that’s gonna suck for them.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Though I agree oil/energy is and will continue to be a problem, I take issue with all the peak-oil gloom and doom.

The very simplified “Peak oil” predictions all assume that there is a somewhat fixed amount of oil ready to be pumped, but that is not true. Even ignoring future discoveries, the amount of oil that can be pumped depends on the price of oil. As the value of oil increases, it becomes more feasible to pump out the hard-to-get (and thus more expensive) stuff. Also, it becomes more attractive to refine the high-sulfur petroleum–again, since this stuff is harder to refine, it is more expensive. The available oil in the Hubbert curve assumes that only a fraction of the oil is gettable–OK that is not really a word…
Somewhat perversely, high oil prices makes more oil accessible–not what the greenies had hoped, I expect. Maybe they should spend a little more time in science class and less time reading Chomsky. ;^)
Last I checked, $120 oil makes wind economically practical–don’t recall the number for solar. I think it might be around $75 in the SW and $150 in the NE, but I’m not sure. I do know that a commercial solar concentrator is going on-line soon in the SW (Arizona, I think)–something Junction… that will be interesting.
Either way, it’s sure to kick the crap out of the long distance commuter–probably good for everyone, in the long run. Short run… well that’s gonna suck for them.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Though I agree oil/energy is and will continue to be a problem, I take issue with all the peak-oil gloom and doom.

The very simplified “Peak oil” predictions all assume that there is a somewhat fixed amount of oil ready to be pumped, but that is not true. Even ignoring future discoveries, the amount of oil that can be pumped depends on the price of oil. As the value of oil increases, it becomes more feasible to pump out the hard-to-get (and thus more expensive) stuff. Also, it becomes more attractive to refine the high-sulfur petroleum–again, since this stuff is harder to refine, it is more expensive. The available oil in the Hubbert curve assumes that only a fraction of the oil is gettable–OK that is not really a word…
Somewhat perversely, high oil prices makes more oil accessible–not what the greenies had hoped, I expect. Maybe they should spend a little more time in science class and less time reading Chomsky. ;^)
Last I checked, $120 oil makes wind economically practical–don’t recall the number for solar. I think it might be around $75 in the SW and $150 in the NE, but I’m not sure. I do know that a commercial solar concentrator is going on-line soon in the SW (Arizona, I think)–something Junction… that will be interesting.
Either way, it’s sure to kick the crap out of the long distance commuter–probably good for everyone, in the long run. Short run… well that’s gonna suck for them.

-one muggle

[ucodegen]

Why can’t someone build a decent electric car?

There is no way for a battery to contain the same amount of energy per pound as a gallon of gasoline. The only way electric cars can get close is high efficiency drivetrains.

An alternate would be fuel cell.. but how would we get the energy to reduce water to hydrogen and oxygen? or what would the inputs be for the chemistry to produce the oxygen and hydrogen?

By the way, where and what form does most of our electricity come from? Don’t forget to factor in transmission losses in the overall equation for the cost on the electric car.

There is a reason why the GM electric car disappeared after the test phase (actually 2). One was that GM was destroying the cars to reduce their liability after the test was done, the second and more important was that the cars use of electricity for recharging was underwritten or sponsored so that people would not see the full cost. You want electric bills of well over $1300/month? Get an electric car.

Another way to look at it is: Your refrigerator/freezer is generally the largest energy consumer in the house. To run one on a backup generator requires a generator of at least 5kva in power (or about 7 horsepower). Every time the fridge powers up to keep cool, that is 7 horsepower running. Cars on the freeway require about 15hp @ 60mph (for constant speed). You add electric car charging costs to your electric bill, you will have to electrically pour that 15hp into the battery. By the way, charging a battery is not 100% efficient, it is generally around 80% in and 80% out (conversion when you use it). That means you have to pour in 23.44hp in to get 15hp on demand when driving an electric vehicle (note that I am using constant speed.. so costs due to acceleration and de-acceleration are not even being covered). By the way, I am also not considering the efficiency of the motor (generally around 90%) nor the wiring (depends on type and gauge).. both increase the charging demands.

Now compare the duration of the power usage.. the fridge powers up for about 1 to 2 minutes about 5 to 10 times a day(7hp for 5 to 20 min). Your drive to work is?? about 30 minutes each way? more? (23.44hp for 30min to 60min) Note: Comparing power demand at the electric meter here

Electric cars can be effective, but only if you have your own PV Array (Photo-Voltaic Array). To size one for electric vehicles, you are looking at around a 30KVA array. Some electric companies will have heartburn here.. you are above 10KVA which they like to use as a threshold.

Disclaimer: My calculations are rough here.. and variance depends upon build of electric vehicle, electric control system and type of batteries

BTW: There is a RAV4 electric vehicle you can buy.. but you have to get it used. It was discontinued in 2003. There is also a tzero as well as a ford ranger EV… and some others. More Links.. I could locate more.. but time for me to get some ZZZs before I turn into a pumpkin..

[ucodegen]

Why can’t someone build a decent electric car?

There is no way for a battery to contain the same amount of energy per pound as a gallon of gasoline. The only way electric cars can get close is high efficiency drivetrains.

An alternate would be fuel cell.. but how would we get the energy to reduce water to hydrogen and oxygen? or what would the inputs be for the chemistry to produce the oxygen and hydrogen?

By the way, where and what form does most of our electricity come from? Don’t forget to factor in transmission losses in the overall equation for the cost on the electric car.

There is a reason why the GM electric car disappeared after the test phase (actually 2). One was that GM was destroying the cars to reduce their liability after the test was done, the second and more important was that the cars use of electricity for recharging was underwritten or sponsored so that people would not see the full cost. You want electric bills of well over $1300/month? Get an electric car.

Another way to look at it is: Your refrigerator/freezer is generally the largest energy consumer in the house. To run one on a backup generator requires a generator of at least 5kva in power (or about 7 horsepower). Every time the fridge powers up to keep cool, that is 7 horsepower running. Cars on the freeway require about 15hp @ 60mph (for constant speed). You add electric car charging costs to your electric bill, you will have to electrically pour that 15hp into the battery. By the way, charging a battery is not 100% efficient, it is generally around 80% in and 80% out (conversion when you use it). That means you have to pour in 23.44hp in to get 15hp on demand when driving an electric vehicle (note that I am using constant speed.. so costs due to acceleration and de-acceleration are not even being covered). By the way, I am also not considering the efficiency of the motor (generally around 90%) nor the wiring (depends on type and gauge).. both increase the charging demands.

Now compare the duration of the power usage.. the fridge powers up for about 1 to 2 minutes about 5 to 10 times a day(7hp for 5 to 20 min). Your drive to work is?? about 30 minutes each way? more? (23.44hp for 30min to 60min) Note: Comparing power demand at the electric meter here

Electric cars can be effective, but only if you have your own PV Array (Photo-Voltaic Array). To size one for electric vehicles, you are looking at around a 30KVA array. Some electric companies will have heartburn here.. you are above 10KVA which they like to use as a threshold.

Disclaimer: My calculations are rough here.. and variance depends upon build of electric vehicle, electric control system and type of batteries

BTW: There is a RAV4 electric vehicle you can buy.. but you have to get it used. It was discontinued in 2003. There is also a tzero as well as a ford ranger EV… and some others. More Links.. I could locate more.. but time for me to get some ZZZs before I turn into a pumpkin..

[ucodegen]

Why can’t someone build a decent electric car?

There is no way for a battery to contain the same amount of energy per pound as a gallon of gasoline. The only way electric cars can get close is high efficiency drivetrains.

An alternate would be fuel cell.. but how would we get the energy to reduce water to hydrogen and oxygen? or what would the inputs be for the chemistry to produce the oxygen and hydrogen?

By the way, where and what form does most of our electricity come from? Don’t forget to factor in transmission losses in the overall equation for the cost on the electric car.

There is a reason why the GM electric car disappeared after the test phase (actually 2). One was that GM was destroying the cars to reduce their liability after the test was done, the second and more important was that the cars use of electricity for recharging was underwritten or sponsored so that people would not see the full cost. You want electric bills of well over $1300/month? Get an electric car.

Another way to look at it is: Your refrigerator/freezer is generally the largest energy consumer in the house. To run one on a backup generator requires a generator of at least 5kva in power (or about 7 horsepower). Every time the fridge powers up to keep cool, that is 7 horsepower running. Cars on the freeway require about 15hp @ 60mph (for constant speed). You add electric car charging costs to your electric bill, you will have to electrically pour that 15hp into the battery. By the way, charging a battery is not 100% efficient, it is generally around 80% in and 80% out (conversion when you use it). That means you have to pour in 23.44hp in to get 15hp on demand when driving an electric vehicle (note that I am using constant speed.. so costs due to acceleration and de-acceleration are not even being covered). By the way, I am also not considering the efficiency of the motor (generally around 90%) nor the wiring (depends on type and gauge).. both increase the charging demands.

Now compare the duration of the power usage.. the fridge powers up for about 1 to 2 minutes about 5 to 10 times a day(7hp for 5 to 20 min). Your drive to work is?? about 30 minutes each way? more? (23.44hp for 30min to 60min) Note: Comparing power demand at the electric meter here

Electric cars can be effective, but only if you have your own PV Array (Photo-Voltaic Array). To size one for electric vehicles, you are looking at around a 30KVA array. Some electric companies will have heartburn here.. you are above 10KVA which they like to use as a threshold.

Disclaimer: My calculations are rough here.. and variance depends upon build of electric vehicle, electric control system and type of batteries

BTW: There is a RAV4 electric vehicle you can buy.. but you have to get it used. It was discontinued in 2003. There is also a tzero as well as a ford ranger EV… and some others. More Links.. I could locate more.. but time for me to get some ZZZs before I turn into a pumpkin..

[Arraya]

Well you are wrong on many levels.

“The very simplified “Peak oil” predictions all assume that there is a somewhat fixed amount of oil ready to be pumped, but that is not true”

Are you saying that there is an oil factory some place making oil. All the oil in the world was created between 50-60 million years ago. Maybe you should go back to science class.

“Somewhat perversely, high oil prices makes more oil accessible–not what the greenies had hoped, I expect.”

To a point true, but you have to go back to the fact that we live in a finite world.

“Last I checked, $120 oil makes wind economically practical–don’t recall the number for solar. ”

Yes, high oil prices make alternatives more feasable but we still have a huge liquid fuel problem. Try putting a wind turbine on a car.

“Maybe they should spend a little more time in science class and less time reading Chomsky.”

I suggest you go to the oil drum. Mostly scientists of different sorts and many independant oil people. It’s hard to swing a dead cat with out hitting a Phd.

Or perhaps try http://www.aspo-usa.com/ I would assume most of these geophyisists went to science class.

But you are correct it does give the doomers something to cling to.

You also have to remember peak was predicted by Dr. Marion King Hubberd back in 56. He was a shell oil geologist. He predicted that the US would peak in 1970 and he was correct. Though he was laughed out the industry in the 50s. He also predicted the world would peak about 50 years later.

Peak is not disputed in the science world. Only the when…

Oh, but there is this guy that did a prett good job at debunking it..

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2696816449890336784&q=peak+oil+debunked&total=2&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0

[Arraya]

Well you are wrong on many levels.

“The very simplified “Peak oil” predictions all assume that there is a somewhat fixed amount of oil ready to be pumped, but that is not true”

Are you saying that there is an oil factory some place making oil. All the oil in the world was created between 50-60 million years ago. Maybe you should go back to science class.

“Somewhat perversely, high oil prices makes more oil accessible–not what the greenies had hoped, I expect.”

To a point true, but you have to go back to the fact that we live in a finite world.

“Last I checked, $120 oil makes wind economically practical–don’t recall the number for solar. ”

Yes, high oil prices make alternatives more feasable but we still have a huge liquid fuel problem. Try putting a wind turbine on a car.

“Maybe they should spend a little more time in science class and less time reading Chomsky.”

I suggest you go to the oil drum. Mostly scientists of different sorts and many independant oil people. It’s hard to swing a dead cat with out hitting a Phd.

Or perhaps try http://www.aspo-usa.com/ I would assume most of these geophyisists went to science class.

But you are correct it does give the doomers something to cling to.

You also have to remember peak was predicted by Dr. Marion King Hubberd back in 56. He was a shell oil geologist. He predicted that the US would peak in 1970 and he was correct. Though he was laughed out the industry in the 50s. He also predicted the world would peak about 50 years later.

Peak is not disputed in the science world. Only the when…

Oh, but there is this guy that did a prett good job at debunking it..

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2696816449890336784&q=peak+oil+debunked&total=2&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0

[Author]

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