$100 barrel of oil, here we come….

[Arraya]

Not trying to panic.

The underlying problem is not energy but time scales. And the real problem is will we not only convert to new energy sources but continue to grow our energy usage on a time scale that will prevent major disruptions in our society.

People are concerned about our ability to transition are also suggesting that we take a more balanced approach to energy and energy usage and maintain and increase our standards of living in the happiness and health sense.
It does not have to be measured in energy consumption.

We can probably build enough coal/nuclear and even better renewable resources no matter what to ensure that some small fraction of society can maintain an nice lifestyle. I think the chance of a complete breakdown is very low.

So for me the real underlying problem is who gets technology
this is an issue of how much we create and when.

“so the population will continue to grow…”

Unfortunately it will only to exacebate future problems, but only temporarily.

Do you think that is what they said when the cut down the last tree on Easter Island?

Infinate growth does not work on a finite world. It has its consequences to try and do it. The sad thing is that it is overly obvious yet we act like that it is not true.

[Arraya]

Not trying to panic.

The underlying problem is not energy but time scales. And the real problem is will we not only convert to new energy sources but continue to grow our energy usage on a time scale that will prevent major disruptions in our society.

People are concerned about our ability to transition are also suggesting that we take a more balanced approach to energy and energy usage and maintain and increase our standards of living in the happiness and health sense.
It does not have to be measured in energy consumption.

We can probably build enough coal/nuclear and even better renewable resources no matter what to ensure that some small fraction of society can maintain an nice lifestyle. I think the chance of a complete breakdown is very low.

So for me the real underlying problem is who gets technology
this is an issue of how much we create and when.

“so the population will continue to grow…”

Unfortunately it will only to exacebate future problems, but only temporarily.

Do you think that is what they said when the cut down the last tree on Easter Island?

Infinate growth does not work on a finite world. It has its consequences to try and do it. The sad thing is that it is overly obvious yet we act like that it is not true.

[Arraya]

Not trying to panic.

The underlying problem is not energy but time scales. And the real problem is will we not only convert to new energy sources but continue to grow our energy usage on a time scale that will prevent major disruptions in our society.

People are concerned about our ability to transition are also suggesting that we take a more balanced approach to energy and energy usage and maintain and increase our standards of living in the happiness and health sense.
It does not have to be measured in energy consumption.

We can probably build enough coal/nuclear and even better renewable resources no matter what to ensure that some small fraction of society can maintain an nice lifestyle. I think the chance of a complete breakdown is very low.

So for me the real underlying problem is who gets technology
this is an issue of how much we create and when.

“so the population will continue to grow…”

Unfortunately it will only to exacebate future problems, but only temporarily.

Do you think that is what they said when the cut down the last tree on Easter Island?

Infinate growth does not work on a finite world. It has its consequences to try and do it. The sad thing is that it is overly obvious yet we act like that it is not true.

[Arraya]

Still you can’t really think oil should be valued as the cheapest liquid on earth @ $.18 per cup. It should at least be as much as Starbucks @ about $1.50 per cup. That should be about $1000 per barrel. I did take millions upon millions of years to make. Don’t ya think?

It looks like we are seeing at least one if not more regions on the planet forced into purchasing oil at any price or face outright shortages. As each region capitulates and buys it causes a higher price forcing another buyer to attempt to stay on the sidelines using reserves in hopes of lower prices until they are too forced to buy.

Basically we have a mild, rolling oil shortage moving around the planet right now.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ihXHMrpUHdtown-KAdgh7Lvu040wD8SL1EGG0

[Arraya]

Still you can’t really think oil should be valued as the cheapest liquid on earth @ $.18 per cup. It should at least be as much as Starbucks @ about $1.50 per cup. That should be about $1000 per barrel. I did take millions upon millions of years to make. Don’t ya think?

It looks like we are seeing at least one if not more regions on the planet forced into purchasing oil at any price or face outright shortages. As each region capitulates and buys it causes a higher price forcing another buyer to attempt to stay on the sidelines using reserves in hopes of lower prices until they are too forced to buy.

Basically we have a mild, rolling oil shortage moving around the planet right now.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ihXHMrpUHdtown-KAdgh7Lvu040wD8SL1EGG0

[Arraya]

Still you can’t really think oil should be valued as the cheapest liquid on earth @ $.18 per cup. It should at least be as much as Starbucks @ about $1.50 per cup. That should be about $1000 per barrel. I did take millions upon millions of years to make. Don’t ya think?

It looks like we are seeing at least one if not more regions on the planet forced into purchasing oil at any price or face outright shortages. As each region capitulates and buys it causes a higher price forcing another buyer to attempt to stay on the sidelines using reserves in hopes of lower prices until they are too forced to buy.

Basically we have a mild, rolling oil shortage moving around the planet right now.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ihXHMrpUHdtown-KAdgh7Lvu040wD8SL1EGG0

[Arraya]

Still you can’t really think oil should be valued as the cheapest liquid on earth @ $.18 per cup. It should at least be as much as Starbucks @ about $1.50 per cup. That should be about $1000 per barrel. I did take millions upon millions of years to make. Don’t ya think?

It looks like we are seeing at least one if not more regions on the planet forced into purchasing oil at any price or face outright shortages. As each region capitulates and buys it causes a higher price forcing another buyer to attempt to stay on the sidelines using reserves in hopes of lower prices until they are too forced to buy.

Basically we have a mild, rolling oil shortage moving around the planet right now.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ihXHMrpUHdtown-KAdgh7Lvu040wD8SL1EGG0

[Anonymous]

I definitely would encourage those interested in finding out more about Peal Oil to read The Oil Drum as has been suggested below. There are some very real facts and tons of data including lots of data on actual decline curves related to the production of most of the major oil fields around the world. With one or two exceptions (china’s production being one), most of the major oil producing countries are in actual decline, meaning they cannot (with or without the drilling of new wells) increase their production rates, including Saudi Arabia.

And while supply is the central tenet in Peak Oil, there is another and IMO a more critical issue at play and that is Demand. And when combined they create an issue which could force us as a Nation to confront Peak Oil in a real sense earlier than if Demand weren’t increasing so rapidly.

The issue for the US is not just the price we pay for the barrel and eventually at the pump (which has not kept up the increase in the price per barrel). It is also the fact that we import so much of our oil (66% in 2006 and much from Non-OPEC countries).

Much of our oil imports come from Canada and Mexico and Mexico is already on a pretty steep decline (14%) on the Cantarell Field (their largest by far at 60% of their total production) we may soon be confronted with what some are calling the “Export Land Model” which is a model to show how internal consumption/demand which is rising and supply which is falling will force most of the major exporters to curtail and eventually cease exporting oil in order to meet internal demand far before the full effect of Peak Oil will come home to roost.

I have seen some analysis which estimates that Mexico may be forced to cease exporting oil within 5-7 years due to the decline at Cantarell.

We as a nation should be looking into every possible avenue to produce energy from alternative sources while focusing on reducing our demand. Let’s hope we did not allow political considerations to have robbed us of our lead time to work this problem before we face the full effects of it. I suspect we may have already done so.

[Anonymous]

I definitely would encourage those interested in finding out more about Peal Oil to read The Oil Drum as has been suggested below. There are some very real facts and tons of data including lots of data on actual decline curves related to the production of most of the major oil fields around the world. With one or two exceptions (china’s production being one), most of the major oil producing countries are in actual decline, meaning they cannot (with or without the drilling of new wells) increase their production rates, including Saudi Arabia.

And while supply is the central tenet in Peak Oil, there is another and IMO a more critical issue at play and that is Demand. And when combined they create an issue which could force us as a Nation to confront Peak Oil in a real sense earlier than if Demand weren’t increasing so rapidly.

The issue for the US is not just the price we pay for the barrel and eventually at the pump (which has not kept up the increase in the price per barrel). It is also the fact that we import so much of our oil (66% in 2006 and much from Non-OPEC countries).

Much of our oil imports come from Canada and Mexico and Mexico is already on a pretty steep decline (14%) on the Cantarell Field (their largest by far at 60% of their total production) we may soon be confronted with what some are calling the “Export Land Model” which is a model to show how internal consumption/demand which is rising and supply which is falling will force most of the major exporters to curtail and eventually cease exporting oil in order to meet internal demand far before the full effect of Peak Oil will come home to roost.

I have seen some analysis which estimates that Mexico may be forced to cease exporting oil within 5-7 years due to the decline at Cantarell.

We as a nation should be looking into every possible avenue to produce energy from alternative sources while focusing on reducing our demand. Let’s hope we did not allow political considerations to have robbed us of our lead time to work this problem before we face the full effects of it. I suspect we may have already done so.

[Anonymous]

I definitely would encourage those interested in finding out more about Peal Oil to read The Oil Drum as has been suggested below. There are some very real facts and tons of data including lots of data on actual decline curves related to the production of most of the major oil fields around the world. With one or two exceptions (china’s production being one), most of the major oil producing countries are in actual decline, meaning they cannot (with or without the drilling of new wells) increase their production rates, including Saudi Arabia.

And while supply is the central tenet in Peak Oil, there is another and IMO a more critical issue at play and that is Demand. And when combined they create an issue which could force us as a Nation to confront Peak Oil in a real sense earlier than if Demand weren’t increasing so rapidly.

The issue for the US is not just the price we pay for the barrel and eventually at the pump (which has not kept up the increase in the price per barrel). It is also the fact that we import so much of our oil (66% in 2006 and much from Non-OPEC countries).

Much of our oil imports come from Canada and Mexico and Mexico is already on a pretty steep decline (14%) on the Cantarell Field (their largest by far at 60% of their total production) we may soon be confronted with what some are calling the “Export Land Model” which is a model to show how internal consumption/demand which is rising and supply which is falling will force most of the major exporters to curtail and eventually cease exporting oil in order to meet internal demand far before the full effect of Peak Oil will come home to roost.

I have seen some analysis which estimates that Mexico may be forced to cease exporting oil within 5-7 years due to the decline at Cantarell.

We as a nation should be looking into every possible avenue to produce energy from alternative sources while focusing on reducing our demand. Let’s hope we did not allow political considerations to have robbed us of our lead time to work this problem before we face the full effects of it. I suspect we may have already done so.

[Anonymous]

I definitely would encourage those interested in finding out more about Peal Oil to read The Oil Drum as has been suggested below. There are some very real facts and tons of data including lots of data on actual decline curves related to the production of most of the major oil fields around the world. With one or two exceptions (china’s production being one), most of the major oil producing countries are in actual decline, meaning they cannot (with or without the drilling of new wells) increase their production rates, including Saudi Arabia.

And while supply is the central tenet in Peak Oil, there is another and IMO a more critical issue at play and that is Demand. And when combined they create an issue which could force us as a Nation to confront Peak Oil in a real sense earlier than if Demand weren’t increasing so rapidly.

The issue for the US is not just the price we pay for the barrel and eventually at the pump (which has not kept up the increase in the price per barrel). It is also the fact that we import so much of our oil (66% in 2006 and much from Non-OPEC countries).

Much of our oil imports come from Canada and Mexico and Mexico is already on a pretty steep decline (14%) on the Cantarell Field (their largest by far at 60% of their total production) we may soon be confronted with what some are calling the “Export Land Model” which is a model to show how internal consumption/demand which is rising and supply which is falling will force most of the major exporters to curtail and eventually cease exporting oil in order to meet internal demand far before the full effect of Peak Oil will come home to roost.

I have seen some analysis which estimates that Mexico may be forced to cease exporting oil within 5-7 years due to the decline at Cantarell.

We as a nation should be looking into every possible avenue to produce energy from alternative sources while focusing on reducing our demand. Let’s hope we did not allow political considerations to have robbed us of our lead time to work this problem before we face the full effects of it. I suspect we may have already done so.

[Author]

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