Higher End Declines?

[sdrealtor]

I agree with contrarian also but its not just uber wealthy folks. The average Euro has seen their currency appreciate by 50% vis a vis the US $ the last few years. That means we are effectively at roughly 2001 pricing for them.

[patientrenter]

sdr, why wouldn’t a smart middle-class European looking to buy a property in the US because of price, first convert a bunch of their Euro money to dollars now, and then wait out the expected US housing market downturn before converting those dollars into real property?

If they are motivated to buy now in the US by low prices, why wouldn’t they make an effort to buy at the lowest possible price? (I’m not talking about people in the beach-house-wealthy category.)

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

sdr, why wouldn’t a smart middle-class European looking to buy a property in the US because of price, first convert a bunch of their Euro money to dollars now, and then wait out the expected US housing market downturn before converting those dollars into real property?

If they are motivated to buy now in the US by low prices, why wouldn’t they make an effort to buy at the lowest possible price? (I’m not talking about people in the beach-house-wealthy category.)

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

sdr, why wouldn’t a smart middle-class European looking to buy a property in the US because of price, first convert a bunch of their Euro money to dollars now, and then wait out the expected US housing market downturn before converting those dollars into real property?

If they are motivated to buy now in the US by low prices, why wouldn’t they make an effort to buy at the lowest possible price? (I’m not talking about people in the beach-house-wealthy category.)

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

sdr, why wouldn’t a smart middle-class European looking to buy a property in the US because of price, first convert a bunch of their Euro money to dollars now, and then wait out the expected US housing market downturn before converting those dollars into real property?

If they are motivated to buy now in the US by low prices, why wouldn’t they make an effort to buy at the lowest possible price? (I’m not talking about people in the beach-house-wealthy category.)

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

sdr, why wouldn’t a smart middle-class European looking to buy a property in the US because of price, first convert a bunch of their Euro money to dollars now, and then wait out the expected US housing market downturn before converting those dollars into real property?

If they are motivated to buy now in the US by low prices, why wouldn’t they make an effort to buy at the lowest possible price? (I’m not talking about people in the beach-house-wealthy category.)

Patient renter in OC

[Anonymous]

A couple more things about foreign buyers:

-For those Europeans looking for a vacation home, SD is just not convenient. They will buy in Florida, except they already did, and between house prices and the exchange rate, they got royally burned. Which brigs me to the second point:

-Foreign buyers are momentum investors (just like 99% of all real estate investors!). They bought into the Florida bubble when prices were skyrocketing, and we are not likely to see another wave while prices are plunging. Do you know anyone that bought in Panama right after the invasion? Probably not. Yet people flocked to invest there the past two years, when prices were skyrocketing. Same for Abu Dhabi (anyone buy right after 9/11?), same for Baja/Cabo (anyone buy in ’95 when the economy in Mexico tanked?), same for every other “hot” real estate mecca.

-The dollar really hasn’t devalued against Asian currencies. We might see some Asian interest in SD if it does, but there’s two things to remember: 1) Asian investors are the most “momentum” oriented of all (see Macao today); and 2) if our currency really tanks against the Chinese currency, you’ll see Walmart’s prices shoot up, which is not what we need right now to stabilize our economy.

[Anonymous]

A couple more things about foreign buyers:

-For those Europeans looking for a vacation home, SD is just not convenient. They will buy in Florida, except they already did, and between house prices and the exchange rate, they got royally burned. Which brigs me to the second point:

-Foreign buyers are momentum investors (just like 99% of all real estate investors!). They bought into the Florida bubble when prices were skyrocketing, and we are not likely to see another wave while prices are plunging. Do you know anyone that bought in Panama right after the invasion? Probably not. Yet people flocked to invest there the past two years, when prices were skyrocketing. Same for Abu Dhabi (anyone buy right after 9/11?), same for Baja/Cabo (anyone buy in ’95 when the economy in Mexico tanked?), same for every other “hot” real estate mecca.

-The dollar really hasn’t devalued against Asian currencies. We might see some Asian interest in SD if it does, but there’s two things to remember: 1) Asian investors are the most “momentum” oriented of all (see Macao today); and 2) if our currency really tanks against the Chinese currency, you’ll see Walmart’s prices shoot up, which is not what we need right now to stabilize our economy.

[Anonymous]

A couple more things about foreign buyers:

-For those Europeans looking for a vacation home, SD is just not convenient. They will buy in Florida, except they already did, and between house prices and the exchange rate, they got royally burned. Which brigs me to the second point:

-Foreign buyers are momentum investors (just like 99% of all real estate investors!). They bought into the Florida bubble when prices were skyrocketing, and we are not likely to see another wave while prices are plunging. Do you know anyone that bought in Panama right after the invasion? Probably not. Yet people flocked to invest there the past two years, when prices were skyrocketing. Same for Abu Dhabi (anyone buy right after 9/11?), same for Baja/Cabo (anyone buy in ’95 when the economy in Mexico tanked?), same for every other “hot” real estate mecca.

-The dollar really hasn’t devalued against Asian currencies. We might see some Asian interest in SD if it does, but there’s two things to remember: 1) Asian investors are the most “momentum” oriented of all (see Macao today); and 2) if our currency really tanks against the Chinese currency, you’ll see Walmart’s prices shoot up, which is not what we need right now to stabilize our economy.

[Anonymous]

A couple more things about foreign buyers:

-For those Europeans looking for a vacation home, SD is just not convenient. They will buy in Florida, except they already did, and between house prices and the exchange rate, they got royally burned. Which brigs me to the second point:

-Foreign buyers are momentum investors (just like 99% of all real estate investors!). They bought into the Florida bubble when prices were skyrocketing, and we are not likely to see another wave while prices are plunging. Do you know anyone that bought in Panama right after the invasion? Probably not. Yet people flocked to invest there the past two years, when prices were skyrocketing. Same for Abu Dhabi (anyone buy right after 9/11?), same for Baja/Cabo (anyone buy in ’95 when the economy in Mexico tanked?), same for every other “hot” real estate mecca.

-The dollar really hasn’t devalued against Asian currencies. We might see some Asian interest in SD if it does, but there’s two things to remember: 1) Asian investors are the most “momentum” oriented of all (see Macao today); and 2) if our currency really tanks against the Chinese currency, you’ll see Walmart’s prices shoot up, which is not what we need right now to stabilize our economy.

[Anonymous]

A couple more things about foreign buyers:

-For those Europeans looking for a vacation home, SD is just not convenient. They will buy in Florida, except they already did, and between house prices and the exchange rate, they got royally burned. Which brigs me to the second point:

-Foreign buyers are momentum investors (just like 99% of all real estate investors!). They bought into the Florida bubble when prices were skyrocketing, and we are not likely to see another wave while prices are plunging. Do you know anyone that bought in Panama right after the invasion? Probably not. Yet people flocked to invest there the past two years, when prices were skyrocketing. Same for Abu Dhabi (anyone buy right after 9/11?), same for Baja/Cabo (anyone buy in ’95 when the economy in Mexico tanked?), same for every other “hot” real estate mecca.

-The dollar really hasn’t devalued against Asian currencies. We might see some Asian interest in SD if it does, but there’s two things to remember: 1) Asian investors are the most “momentum” oriented of all (see Macao today); and 2) if our currency really tanks against the Chinese currency, you’ll see Walmart’s prices shoot up, which is not what we need right now to stabilize our economy.

[sdrealtor]

patientrenter,
You assumed “smart”. Dont assume the middle class Euro J6P is any smarter than the american version. BTW, I’m not claiming they are coming over in droves to support the market but rather it is just another potential mitigating factor.

D Pearson
I’m talkin Euro J6P looking to come to America and chase the Dream not Euro Investor Guy. Right or wrong, California is still a dream location for many of the average joe’s around the world.

[sdrealtor]

patientrenter,
You assumed “smart”. Dont assume the middle class Euro J6P is any smarter than the american version. BTW, I’m not claiming they are coming over in droves to support the market but rather it is just another potential mitigating factor.

D Pearson
I’m talkin Euro J6P looking to come to America and chase the Dream not Euro Investor Guy. Right or wrong, California is still a dream location for many of the average joe’s around the world.

[sdrealtor]

patientrenter,
You assumed “smart”. Dont assume the middle class Euro J6P is any smarter than the american version. BTW, I’m not claiming they are coming over in droves to support the market but rather it is just another potential mitigating factor.

D Pearson
I’m talkin Euro J6P looking to come to America and chase the Dream not Euro Investor Guy. Right or wrong, California is still a dream location for many of the average joe’s around the world.

[sdrealtor]

patientrenter,
You assumed “smart”. Dont assume the middle class Euro J6P is any smarter than the american version. BTW, I’m not claiming they are coming over in droves to support the market but rather it is just another potential mitigating factor.

D Pearson
I’m talkin Euro J6P looking to come to America and chase the Dream not Euro Investor Guy. Right or wrong, California is still a dream location for many of the average joe’s around the world.

[Author]

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