One American household out of 10 under water

[patientlywaiting]

” I’m from a long line of real estate investors and we all know one thing for sure – Real estate always comes back. ”

How long is your line? 2 or more generations? If your long line of investors was successful, you’d have an inheritance and oodles cash to scoop up those amazing deals you’re talking about.

Sure, real estate comes back but, in the mean time, you need enough money to wait it out and still provide for your family.

I don’t see how anyone with negative net-worth is not in distress. I would be.

I do think that press is looking for ratings. But they haven’t begun to explain to the American people the severity of this crisis.

[one_muggle]

Real estate always comes back

I don’t know dude, there are a couple of significant trends that could make any significant rebound pretty far off.

For the last 30 yrs housing prices have gotten a boost from ever lower interest rates, and that will almost certainly not be the case over the next 30 yrs.

Baby boomers are beginning to switch from net home buyers to net home sellers, which is a trend that will get worse since a large fraction of them planned (and/or will need) to sell their house to fund retirement.

RE in some areas, like NYC and San Fran will probably always bounce back, but one industry towns, like Vegas, have a history of staying busted. Post-steel boom areas like Pennsylvania and upstate NY have never recovered the loss of that industry.
I don’t doubt that people will keep on gambling, but the water situation in the Southwest is getting dire, and will put a limit on growth, while surrounding states relax ordinances on local gambling. Though, the crappy dollar is keeping people in the states, so you have that going for you.
IMHO the odds on an eventual (~decade) RE recovery in Vegas are not bad, but I don’t think it is a certainty. There’s an awful lot of still-overpriced inventory, and not all that much demand. It’s kind of hard to see what is going to fuel another boom.
Good luck.

[one_muggle]

Real estate always comes back

I don’t know dude, there are a couple of significant trends that could make any significant rebound pretty far off.

For the last 30 yrs housing prices have gotten a boost from ever lower interest rates, and that will almost certainly not be the case over the next 30 yrs.

Baby boomers are beginning to switch from net home buyers to net home sellers, which is a trend that will get worse since a large fraction of them planned (and/or will need) to sell their house to fund retirement.

RE in some areas, like NYC and San Fran will probably always bounce back, but one industry towns, like Vegas, have a history of staying busted. Post-steel boom areas like Pennsylvania and upstate NY have never recovered the loss of that industry.
I don’t doubt that people will keep on gambling, but the water situation in the Southwest is getting dire, and will put a limit on growth, while surrounding states relax ordinances on local gambling. Though, the crappy dollar is keeping people in the states, so you have that going for you.
IMHO the odds on an eventual (~decade) RE recovery in Vegas are not bad, but I don’t think it is a certainty. There’s an awful lot of still-overpriced inventory, and not all that much demand. It’s kind of hard to see what is going to fuel another boom.
Good luck.

[one_muggle]

Real estate always comes back

I don’t know dude, there are a couple of significant trends that could make any significant rebound pretty far off.

For the last 30 yrs housing prices have gotten a boost from ever lower interest rates, and that will almost certainly not be the case over the next 30 yrs.

Baby boomers are beginning to switch from net home buyers to net home sellers, which is a trend that will get worse since a large fraction of them planned (and/or will need) to sell their house to fund retirement.

RE in some areas, like NYC and San Fran will probably always bounce back, but one industry towns, like Vegas, have a history of staying busted. Post-steel boom areas like Pennsylvania and upstate NY have never recovered the loss of that industry.
I don’t doubt that people will keep on gambling, but the water situation in the Southwest is getting dire, and will put a limit on growth, while surrounding states relax ordinances on local gambling. Though, the crappy dollar is keeping people in the states, so you have that going for you.
IMHO the odds on an eventual (~decade) RE recovery in Vegas are not bad, but I don’t think it is a certainty. There’s an awful lot of still-overpriced inventory, and not all that much demand. It’s kind of hard to see what is going to fuel another boom.
Good luck.

[one_muggle]

Real estate always comes back

I don’t know dude, there are a couple of significant trends that could make any significant rebound pretty far off.

For the last 30 yrs housing prices have gotten a boost from ever lower interest rates, and that will almost certainly not be the case over the next 30 yrs.

Baby boomers are beginning to switch from net home buyers to net home sellers, which is a trend that will get worse since a large fraction of them planned (and/or will need) to sell their house to fund retirement.

RE in some areas, like NYC and San Fran will probably always bounce back, but one industry towns, like Vegas, have a history of staying busted. Post-steel boom areas like Pennsylvania and upstate NY have never recovered the loss of that industry.
I don’t doubt that people will keep on gambling, but the water situation in the Southwest is getting dire, and will put a limit on growth, while surrounding states relax ordinances on local gambling. Though, the crappy dollar is keeping people in the states, so you have that going for you.
IMHO the odds on an eventual (~decade) RE recovery in Vegas are not bad, but I don’t think it is a certainty. There’s an awful lot of still-overpriced inventory, and not all that much demand. It’s kind of hard to see what is going to fuel another boom.
Good luck.

[one_muggle]

Real estate always comes back

I don’t know dude, there are a couple of significant trends that could make any significant rebound pretty far off.

For the last 30 yrs housing prices have gotten a boost from ever lower interest rates, and that will almost certainly not be the case over the next 30 yrs.

Baby boomers are beginning to switch from net home buyers to net home sellers, which is a trend that will get worse since a large fraction of them planned (and/or will need) to sell their house to fund retirement.

RE in some areas, like NYC and San Fran will probably always bounce back, but one industry towns, like Vegas, have a history of staying busted. Post-steel boom areas like Pennsylvania and upstate NY have never recovered the loss of that industry.
I don’t doubt that people will keep on gambling, but the water situation in the Southwest is getting dire, and will put a limit on growth, while surrounding states relax ordinances on local gambling. Though, the crappy dollar is keeping people in the states, so you have that going for you.
IMHO the odds on an eventual (~decade) RE recovery in Vegas are not bad, but I don’t think it is a certainty. There’s an awful lot of still-overpriced inventory, and not all that much demand. It’s kind of hard to see what is going to fuel another boom.
Good luck.

[Mean Reversion]

Real estate always comes back.

Sure it does. But isn’t it important how long it takes?

Are we talking 2 years or 20 years? That’s kinda important dontcha think?

[Mean Reversion]

Real estate always comes back.

Sure it does. But isn’t it important how long it takes?

Are we talking 2 years or 20 years? That’s kinda important dontcha think?

[Mean Reversion]

Real estate always comes back.

Sure it does. But isn’t it important how long it takes?

Are we talking 2 years or 20 years? That’s kinda important dontcha think?

[Mean Reversion]

Real estate always comes back.

Sure it does. But isn’t it important how long it takes?

Are we talking 2 years or 20 years? That’s kinda important dontcha think?

[Mean Reversion]

Real estate always comes back.

Sure it does. But isn’t it important how long it takes?

Are we talking 2 years or 20 years? That’s kinda important dontcha think?

[Eugene]

I personally know a guy who’s most likely underwater even though he bought his house with 20% down of his hard earned money. I tried to talk him out of the purchase, too.

Unless he loses his job, he won’t walk away. There’s no point. His monthly carrying costs are MAYBE $500 more than it would cost him to rent a comparable house. Is $500/month worth ruining your credit history?

Don’t assume that everyone who’s underwater will walk.

[Eugene]

I personally know a guy who’s most likely underwater even though he bought his house with 20% down of his hard earned money. I tried to talk him out of the purchase, too.

Unless he loses his job, he won’t walk away. There’s no point. His monthly carrying costs are MAYBE $500 more than it would cost him to rent a comparable house. Is $500/month worth ruining your credit history?

Don’t assume that everyone who’s underwater will walk.

[Eugene]

I personally know a guy who’s most likely underwater even though he bought his house with 20% down of his hard earned money. I tried to talk him out of the purchase, too.

Unless he loses his job, he won’t walk away. There’s no point. His monthly carrying costs are MAYBE $500 more than it would cost him to rent a comparable house. Is $500/month worth ruining your credit history?

Don’t assume that everyone who’s underwater will walk.

[Eugene]

I personally know a guy who’s most likely underwater even though he bought his house with 20% down of his hard earned money. I tried to talk him out of the purchase, too.

Unless he loses his job, he won’t walk away. There’s no point. His monthly carrying costs are MAYBE $500 more than it would cost him to rent a comparable house. Is $500/month worth ruining your credit history?

Don’t assume that everyone who’s underwater will walk.

[Author]

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