Orange County and San Diego flagged as “fairly valued”

[Bugs]

There’s a reason Rich’s trendline analyses start back in 1976 and why they’re tied to the historical trends for wages and population as well as the prices themselves. The problem with looking at the pricing and including the recent spike is that it requires assuming that spike was a typical variation rather than a one-time gross distortion.

That’s why it skews the “should-be” indicator up a lot farther than it should. If the current pricing is within 1% of what it should be, that means that after excluding the $1,000,000+ luxury condos with the waterfront and penthouse locations, the average sales price of $328,000 for all remaining condos countywide is justified. The reality is that with a 5% downpayment it still takes a $102,000 household income to support that average, and that’s about $30,000/year higher than where wages really are.

[cr]

One problem I see is as alluded to above it takes economic factors as relatively constant.

That 63,000 drop in payrolls last month will have just a minor affect on this study. Other incomes are dropping, and we haven’t even seen the next shoe drop in loan resets.

Nice try though.

[cr]

One problem I see is as alluded to above it takes economic factors as relatively constant.

That 63,000 drop in payrolls last month will have just a minor affect on this study. Other incomes are dropping, and we haven’t even seen the next shoe drop in loan resets.

Nice try though.

[cr]

One problem I see is as alluded to above it takes economic factors as relatively constant.

That 63,000 drop in payrolls last month will have just a minor affect on this study. Other incomes are dropping, and we haven’t even seen the next shoe drop in loan resets.

Nice try though.

[cr]

One problem I see is as alluded to above it takes economic factors as relatively constant.

That 63,000 drop in payrolls last month will have just a minor affect on this study. Other incomes are dropping, and we haven’t even seen the next shoe drop in loan resets.

Nice try though.

[cr]

One problem I see is as alluded to above it takes economic factors as relatively constant.

That 63,000 drop in payrolls last month will have just a minor affect on this study. Other incomes are dropping, and we haven’t even seen the next shoe drop in loan resets.

Nice try though.

[Doofrat]

I believe the tightening of credit is going to have a major effect on the price of houses in the near future and this study doesn’t account for it. Of course, the study can’t account for what the credit markets will do, but I believe that is a major weakness of the study.

[Doofrat]

I believe the tightening of credit is going to have a major effect on the price of houses in the near future and this study doesn’t account for it. Of course, the study can’t account for what the credit markets will do, but I believe that is a major weakness of the study.

[Doofrat]

I believe the tightening of credit is going to have a major effect on the price of houses in the near future and this study doesn’t account for it. Of course, the study can’t account for what the credit markets will do, but I believe that is a major weakness of the study.

[Doofrat]

I believe the tightening of credit is going to have a major effect on the price of houses in the near future and this study doesn’t account for it. Of course, the study can’t account for what the credit markets will do, but I believe that is a major weakness of the study.

[Doofrat]

I believe the tightening of credit is going to have a major effect on the price of houses in the near future and this study doesn’t account for it. Of course, the study can’t account for what the credit markets will do, but I believe that is a major weakness of the study.

[Author]

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