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schizo2buyORnot
ParticipantThe second link has true inventory numbers. This is a hard fact. Interpret how you may but don’t try and shade a hard fact which indicates that inventories have stabilized year over year. They are not rising on a year over year basis and have not risen on a year over year basis for the last 4 months in SD.
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/
Stabilizing inventory levels are not indicative of an imploding market.
Impatient renter
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
June 11, 2007 at 7:40 PM in reply to: NEED your input, About to buy a new Pienza home in 4S Ranch #58524Participantbuyorhold,
The decision to buy in 4S with a 7-10 year horizon is a good one. Especially with a young family. I am on the cusp of doing the same thing, I have even looked at Pienza also.
Many, not all, of the posters here are empty heads who are praying the market will go down, but even if it does they probably don’t have the wherewithal to buy anyway. 4S is a very very desireable family community. The commute is about as good as it gets for a new home community in the SD area. I believe this is one of the reasons for 4Ss resilience to large price drops. There are many waiting on the side lines itching to buy and live in 4S.
Stupid statements like “20% is in the bag and 60% is possible” for price drops with nothing to back up such a statement is worthless fortune telling.
Perhaps the most salient FACT (yes folks an actual fact which impacts the RE market) is that inventories in San Diego have begun to drop year over year. (See here http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/ )
Inventories are are still high but they have stabilized and have even dipped slightly year over year. This likely means that we have either arrived or are very near the bottom. The bottoming process may take several years however. It may indeed be a long time (5-7years?????) for RE purchased now to see significant appreciation. But the market is acting like it is bottoming. One other note. The SD market is very negatively impacted by older communities in which condo conversions made RE spike and then crash. The biggest price drops/foreclosures are in many of the less desireable communities. Fieldstone’s resistance to lowering the price further is because the demand is there (all those waiting on the sidelines to buy in places like 4S).
Buy in 4S hold for 7-10 year and enjoy owning in one of the best family communities in San Diego while you enjoy at least an hour a day of extra time with the family because you don’t have to communite to San Marcos, Temecula, or beyond. I will likely buy either Pienza or Maybeck at the next release.
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
June 11, 2007 at 7:40 PM in reply to: NEED your input, About to buy a new Pienza home in 4S Ranch #58551Participantbuyorhold,
The decision to buy in 4S with a 7-10 year horizon is a good one. Especially with a young family. I am on the cusp of doing the same thing, I have even looked at Pienza also.
Many, not all, of the posters here are empty heads who are praying the market will go down, but even if it does they probably don’t have the wherewithal to buy anyway. 4S is a very very desireable family community. The commute is about as good as it gets for a new home community in the SD area. I believe this is one of the reasons for 4Ss resilience to large price drops. There are many waiting on the side lines itching to buy and live in 4S.
Stupid statements like “20% is in the bag and 60% is possible” for price drops with nothing to back up such a statement is worthless fortune telling.
Perhaps the most salient FACT (yes folks an actual fact which impacts the RE market) is that inventories in San Diego have begun to drop year over year. (See here http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/ )
Inventories are are still high but they have stabilized and have even dipped slightly year over year. This likely means that we have either arrived or are very near the bottom. The bottoming process may take several years however. It may indeed be a long time (5-7years?????) for RE purchased now to see significant appreciation. But the market is acting like it is bottoming. One other note. The SD market is very negatively impacted by older communities in which condo conversions made RE spike and then crash. The biggest price drops/foreclosures are in many of the less desireable communities. Fieldstone’s resistance to lowering the price further is because the demand is there (all those waiting on the sidelines to buy in places like 4S).
Buy in 4S hold for 7-10 year and enjoy owning in one of the best family communities in San Diego while you enjoy at least an hour a day of extra time with the family because you don’t have to communite to San Marcos, Temecula, or beyond. I will likely buy either Pienza or Maybeck at the next release.
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
ParticipantAll things being equal (i.e. no bubble, no crash, but a normal RE market . . . ha! since when???) owning RE is a hedge against inflation. Theoretically as inflation rises it influences the price of the RE (upward) separately and distinctly from additional influences such as supply and demand. In addition, if the home is financed the “carrying cost” (a tern thrown around a lot here) also declines as inflation increases (assuming of course inflation causes your income to increase).
If (big IF in some cases) the carrying cost (interest rate) is fixed (30yr fixed loan) while inflation rises, the releative carrying cost goes down. All of this of course makes many assumptions (normal RE market) that are totally absent from the So Cal RE reality . . . .
No evasion here its just that the “inflation hedge factor” is almost totally overwhelmed by other more significant factors affecting RE prices (bubble burst, 4closure, high inventory, etc.).
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
ParticipantAll things being equal (i.e. no bubble, no crash, but a normal RE market . . . ha! since when???) owning RE is a hedge against inflation. Theoretically as inflation rises it influences the price of the RE (upward) separately and distinctly from additional influences such as supply and demand. In addition, if the home is financed the “carrying cost” (a tern thrown around a lot here) also declines as inflation increases (assuming of course inflation causes your income to increase).
If (big IF in some cases) the carrying cost (interest rate) is fixed (30yr fixed loan) while inflation rises, the releative carrying cost goes down. All of this of course makes many assumptions (normal RE market) that are totally absent from the So Cal RE reality . . . .
No evasion here its just that the “inflation hedge factor” is almost totally overwhelmed by other more significant factors affecting RE prices (bubble burst, 4closure, high inventory, etc.).
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
ParticipantTemeculaguy,
Sound advice on distracting the wife when she wants to go look at the new home models “honey . . . these aren’t the droids you are looking for . . . move along.” Do you think it will work???? 🙂
One note to critics, I have never quoted some pundit like David Learah or what’s his bucket on money in the morning to support anything I have posited here. I have tried to throw objective facts (dollar decline, sales numbers, inventory numbers, actual sale prices of recent homes in area I am thinking of buying [4S]) at the Piggingtonians and see their take on it. It’s good thing to do. I have deliberately thrown some of the FACTUAL information that could indicate a firming just to see someone take the otherside and add balance to the difficult task of me interpreting the RE market. Isn’t that the essence of this blog’s purpose??? Sometimes the response I get here is reasoned, sound, and the product of critical thinking. Sometimes it is just as inane, baseless, and useless (such as “I gaurantee you a RE bloodbath is just around the corner”) as Learah and friend’s endless, ongoing, and shifting predictions of a bottom.
What has worked to date with the wife is “honey you could buy that house now and then in six months we can go out to the front drive way, dump $25,000 to $30,000 in $100 dollar bills, pour gas on it, and light it on fire. Or we can rent for six more months and keep the pile of cash. I then explain that buying in a declining market would be akin to burning the cash in terms of equity lost. So far she gets this . . . reluctantly. I can see where this is going already. Can you say premium upgraded appliances for the kitchen when we eventually buy a place??? I just hate to rent. Financially its the wisest move right now. Lifestyle wise I hate it and money is not everything.
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
ParticipantJustme,
If you read my first posts on this blog, I am a transplant from the DC area. Owned a house there for years, sold it at a profit, and have resources to buy here in San Diego, even at these prices. However, I’m not foolish enough to catch a falling knife for no reason (the RE market recently). I am a renter now. However, I may be a buyer very soon. I will buy a house in San Diego its just a question of timing. I am constantly seeking information to get a real gauge on where the market is and where it is headed. Who am I a shill for???? What is my motive??? Answer there is none. I’m just looking for the right entry point. My patience over the past several months has already paid off. I’m just not convinced RE Armageddon is just around the corner. It may be . . . but I have seen no hard facts to support it.
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
April 28, 2007 at 8:19 PM in reply to: 4S Ranch – (3000+sq/ft update) Pienza / Evergreen / Maybeck #51387ParticipantSpoke to two different builders in 4S. Currently they are not even pouring foundations until they have a phase release and buyers committed (earnest money paid). Then they pour the foundation and begin the building process. This is causing a slow down in the original plan but they are not stuck with built homes which aren’t sold. This is the story in 4S Ranch at least. Don’t know about elsewhere. Thinking of buying there. Pressure from wife is immense.
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
Participant[img_assist|nid=3204|title=Pienza Prices|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=55]
http://www.fieldstone-homes.com/availablehomes/
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
ParticipantCIRCUMSTANCES WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY A TURN IN RE PRICES . . .
Hmmm . . . stabilizing inventory levels (high but not rising) and now home sales increase slightly and register above expectations and the stock market rallies 120pts. RE Market is down and not going higher anytime soon. The question is what is it going to do??? If I just had that crystal ball . . . . For those worrying about missing the turn in the market (first don’t worry its not turning up anytime soon, it may also not be turning sharply lower however) there historically have ALWAYS been certain precursers to a turn in RE prices. 1st high inventory numbers stop rising, stablize, and begin to fall. Inventory numbers have almost always fallen from their highs by about 35 to 40% before bottomed out prices just begin to perk up. Even then it is a very slow turn as inventory continues to shrink past 50% of the high. Once the 50% of high inventory mark is met . . . it is good to be in front of the coming wave of upward prices. Last time it was a titantic tsunami. Next time who knows it could only be a mild ripple. How long before the wave and how big it will be (tsunami or ripple) NO ONE KNOWS, it could be years (thus I am still searching for the crystal ball). However, the above circumstances have always preceded a turn of home prices in the past.
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
ParticipantAll RE is local . . . . areas hit the worst are the worst areas . . . .
[img_assist|nid=2996|title=Top SD Foreclosure zip codes|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=299|height=500]
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
ParticipantAll RE is local . . . . areas hit the worst are the worst areas . . . .
[img_assist|nid=2996|title=Top SD Foreclosure zip codes|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=299|height=500]
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
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