NEED your input, About to buy a new Pienza home in 4S Ranch

[buyorhold]

Hello Cyphire,

Thank you for the opinion. I think you may be right. I have talked to several more friends at work, and they advised me to considering renting a bigger home for several years rather than buying right now.

thanks again.

[buyorhold]

Hello Cyphire,

Thank you for the opinion. I think you may be right. I have talked to several more friends at work, and they advised me to considering renting a bigger home for several years rather than buying right now.

thanks again.

[capeman]

Honestly it is good that you asked this question before finalizing the deal. My parents live in 4S and bought in ’99 so I am not worried about them losing their arses. I have spent a lot of time there on my parents balcony when almost all of 4S was just a big dirt ball. It has all gone up and been sold during the housing bull run and is going to be the perfect example of how a whole community can be destroyed by an asset bubble popping. I don’t see anything but that whole area going down 20-60% in the near term and if you want to be able to get out of the house at some point the best way to do it is to not get into one in the first place. I would rent in the area and watch things play out. Losing 10k upfront is much more palatable then erasing a 20% deposit and being stuck in a depreciated but nice-looking prison for 15 years. As a lifer in San Diego and one who saw 4S grow from the drawing board to what it is I say stay away until it has dropped at least 30% or 2-3 years has passed.

chris

[capeman]

Honestly it is good that you asked this question before finalizing the deal. My parents live in 4S and bought in ’99 so I am not worried about them losing their arses. I have spent a lot of time there on my parents balcony when almost all of 4S was just a big dirt ball. It has all gone up and been sold during the housing bull run and is going to be the perfect example of how a whole community can be destroyed by an asset bubble popping. I don’t see anything but that whole area going down 20-60% in the near term and if you want to be able to get out of the house at some point the best way to do it is to not get into one in the first place. I would rent in the area and watch things play out. Losing 10k upfront is much more palatable then erasing a 20% deposit and being stuck in a depreciated but nice-looking prison for 15 years. As a lifer in San Diego and one who saw 4S grow from the drawing board to what it is I say stay away until it has dropped at least 30% or 2-3 years has passed.

chris

[gracie]

Wow Chris…Do you think 4S will drop that much?

[gracie]

Wow Chris…Do you think 4S will drop that much?

[PD]

20% is probably in the bag. A 60% drop seems improbable but is not impossible. New areas will be hit hard.

[PD]

20% is probably in the bag. A 60% drop seems improbable but is not impossible. New areas will be hit hard.

[cyphire]

My pleasure – buyorhold. Any neighborhood which has been built in the last 5 years, or is still being built (units available) is going to get creamed. The reason is that there is no underlying stability because everyone just bought. That is where you will find investors, folks who didn’t realize the commute was gonna be tough, folks who didn’t realize that they were too much out of pocket, etc.

The builders control these areas – they will keep offering incentives which will kill the resale market – and since as I wrote above there will be more and more resales. There are also no fixer ups, no tear downs, no remodels so there is only new houses. This also creates an EASY comparison model, makes it too easy for future buyers to compare properties. This doesn’t work in the sellers favor in the future because the comps are too close.

Good luck and make your own decision. I don’t want to steer you wrong – but I think you will be very happy for the next 2+ years if you don’t buy.

By the way, as it is a new area – there will be LOTS of rentals. They don’t always come on quickly but I think that there will be more and more of them for people who need to recover some of their out of pocket but don’t want to sell figuring prices will go back up.

I would bet (I am betting with my own situation) that prices will not go up.

Good luck!

[cyphire]

My pleasure – buyorhold. Any neighborhood which has been built in the last 5 years, or is still being built (units available) is going to get creamed. The reason is that there is no underlying stability because everyone just bought. That is where you will find investors, folks who didn’t realize the commute was gonna be tough, folks who didn’t realize that they were too much out of pocket, etc.

The builders control these areas – they will keep offering incentives which will kill the resale market – and since as I wrote above there will be more and more resales. There are also no fixer ups, no tear downs, no remodels so there is only new houses. This also creates an EASY comparison model, makes it too easy for future buyers to compare properties. This doesn’t work in the sellers favor in the future because the comps are too close.

Good luck and make your own decision. I don’t want to steer you wrong – but I think you will be very happy for the next 2+ years if you don’t buy.

By the way, as it is a new area – there will be LOTS of rentals. They don’t always come on quickly but I think that there will be more and more of them for people who need to recover some of their out of pocket but don’t want to sell figuring prices will go back up.

I would bet (I am betting with my own situation) that prices will not go up.

Good luck!

[SD Realtor]

buyorhold –

Part of life on the blogs is learning to develop a thick skin. Don’t worry about responses that annoy you rather then address the issues you inquire about. I think that you did get what you are looking for in the responses that addressed your question directly. I agree that going hard after the deposit will be difficult at best, however if you can go ahead and rent for awhile you will more then recoup your deposit back.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

buyorhold –

Part of life on the blogs is learning to develop a thick skin. Don’t worry about responses that annoy you rather then address the issues you inquire about. I think that you did get what you are looking for in the responses that addressed your question directly. I agree that going hard after the deposit will be difficult at best, however if you can go ahead and rent for awhile you will more then recoup your deposit back.

SD Realtor

[schizo2buyORnot]

buyorhold,

The decision to buy in 4S with a 7-10 year horizon is a good one. Especially with a young family. I am on the cusp of doing the same thing, I have even looked at Pienza also.

Many, not all, of the posters here are empty heads who are praying the market will go down, but even if it does they probably don’t have the wherewithal to buy anyway. 4S is a very very desireable family community. The commute is about as good as it gets for a new home community in the SD area. I believe this is one of the reasons for 4Ss resilience to large price drops. There are many waiting on the side lines itching to buy and live in 4S.

Stupid statements like “20% is in the bag and 60% is possible” for price drops with nothing to back up such a statement is worthless fortune telling.

Perhaps the most salient FACT (yes folks an actual fact which impacts the RE market) is that inventories in San Diego have begun to drop year over year. (See here http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/ )

Inventories are are still high but they have stabilized and have even dipped slightly year over year. This likely means that we have either arrived or are very near the bottom. The bottoming process may take several years however. It may indeed be a long time (5-7years?????) for RE purchased now to see significant appreciation. But the market is acting like it is bottoming. One other note. The SD market is very negatively impacted by older communities in which condo conversions made RE spike and then crash. The biggest price drops/foreclosures are in many of the less desireable communities. Fieldstone’s resistance to lowering the price further is because the demand is there (all those waiting on the sidelines to buy in places like 4S).

Buy in 4S hold for 7-10 year and enjoy owning in one of the best family communities in San Diego while you enjoy at least an hour a day of extra time with the family because you don’t have to communite to San Marcos, Temecula, or beyond. I will likely buy either Pienza or Maybeck at the next release.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

buyorhold,

The decision to buy in 4S with a 7-10 year horizon is a good one. Especially with a young family. I am on the cusp of doing the same thing, I have even looked at Pienza also.

Many, not all, of the posters here are empty heads who are praying the market will go down, but even if it does they probably don’t have the wherewithal to buy anyway. 4S is a very very desireable family community. The commute is about as good as it gets for a new home community in the SD area. I believe this is one of the reasons for 4Ss resilience to large price drops. There are many waiting on the side lines itching to buy and live in 4S.

Stupid statements like “20% is in the bag and 60% is possible” for price drops with nothing to back up such a statement is worthless fortune telling.

Perhaps the most salient FACT (yes folks an actual fact which impacts the RE market) is that inventories in San Diego have begun to drop year over year. (See here http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/ )

Inventories are are still high but they have stabilized and have even dipped slightly year over year. This likely means that we have either arrived or are very near the bottom. The bottoming process may take several years however. It may indeed be a long time (5-7years?????) for RE purchased now to see significant appreciation. But the market is acting like it is bottoming. One other note. The SD market is very negatively impacted by older communities in which condo conversions made RE spike and then crash. The biggest price drops/foreclosures are in many of the less desireable communities. Fieldstone’s resistance to lowering the price further is because the demand is there (all those waiting on the sidelines to buy in places like 4S).

Buy in 4S hold for 7-10 year and enjoy owning in one of the best family communities in San Diego while you enjoy at least an hour a day of extra time with the family because you don’t have to communite to San Marcos, Temecula, or beyond. I will likely buy either Pienza or Maybeck at the next release.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[temeculaguy]

Buyorhold, my apologies if my posts sounded rude, it was meant in a spirit of humor. Ditto what SD said, you have to have thick skin on the blogs, but in trade you will get some wisdom and insight from some great minds that you might not encounter in your normal circles, and you might get some feedback from someone who screams at passing cars, the cost of free advice. If it was lending bubble you were referring to about mocking you (which I think it was) you have to admit you walked into it throwing down a deposit and then asking for advice. At least you were brave enough to not go with the “a friend of mine from work” angle, those crack me up.

[Author]

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