NEED your input, About to buy a new Pienza home in 4S Ranch

[fromnj]

rb_engineer,

Thanks for the info. That is what we were guessing. I agree with you about the location, it is nicer than Del Sur or 4S Ranch.

Anyway, I was looking at the west side of Camino Del Sur where much smaller lots have been built in Santaluz. They are more reachable in terms of price range.

In my opinion, the value of those houses selling at 1M or over in that particular area may loose much weath over the years due to its poor community planning. It is discussed about it in a different topic before, but those houses have a garage on their backside of house and the garages are facing at each other (face to face) between a very narrow street. So, if your neighbor parks a car for car wash in front of their garage, you cannot get your car out of garage. And there a lot of street parking going on since there is no drive way. And then my wife has more complains.

I will not be so suprised if it is going back to the original price range like 700K in 3-5 years from now when Del Sur starts selling more units. On the other hand, the east side of camino Del Sur has very different design, but more expensive.

[cyphire]

My own guess based on long term interest rates, economic weakness, rising taxes, and the money supply lead me to guess that real estate will go down by 3-5 percent per year and have hiccups of 1% raises during these periods.

I feel that this trend could continue for 10 years (or more).

Looking at historic bubbles, risk aversion, and the changing capital markets (as well as Middle class America taking on huge debt and outsourcing) – I’m making my guess that this is what is going to happen.

Also with the baby boomers retiring, and their incredible lack of savings, this leads to long term economic malaise.

Just a guess! But I wouldn’t be even thinking of buying for 2 years. That is my personal time period to assess the market.

Who really knows? But looking at the unsustainable price increases, the investor speculation and the number of sub prime, low equity, highly leveraged mortgage market, I see long term, not short term corrections with a snowballing sentiment.

[cyphire]

My own guess based on long term interest rates, economic weakness, rising taxes, and the money supply lead me to guess that real estate will go down by 3-5 percent per year and have hiccups of 1% raises during these periods.

I feel that this trend could continue for 10 years (or more).

Looking at historic bubbles, risk aversion, and the changing capital markets (as well as Middle class America taking on huge debt and outsourcing) – I’m making my guess that this is what is going to happen.

Also with the baby boomers retiring, and their incredible lack of savings, this leads to long term economic malaise.

Just a guess! But I wouldn’t be even thinking of buying for 2 years. That is my personal time period to assess the market.

Who really knows? But looking at the unsustainable price increases, the investor speculation and the number of sub prime, low equity, highly leveraged mortgage market, I see long term, not short term corrections with a snowballing sentiment.

[PerryChase]

Good guess cyphire. I’m thinking the same thing.

[PerryChase]

Good guess cyphire. I’m thinking the same thing.

[sdrealtor]

cy,
Are you thinking 3 to 5% real or nominal?

[sdrealtor]

cy,
Are you thinking 3 to 5% real or nominal?

[4spotentialbuyer]

Allan, regarding Summer or later of 2008

We want to buy a new home from the builder so that we may select our own upgrades and landscaping…and we plan to stay put at leat 10+ years….we also think interest rates will go up in 2008 and there are only 2 more communities to be built in 4S Ranch. We did not want to wait until summer/fall 2008 as interest rates may go up however we also will have to see if the prices for the new homes continue to drop, if it does, it may justify waiting to buy at a higher interest rate.

4spotentialbuyer

[4spotentialbuyer]

Allan, regarding Summer or later of 2008

We want to buy a new home from the builder so that we may select our own upgrades and landscaping…and we plan to stay put at leat 10+ years….we also think interest rates will go up in 2008 and there are only 2 more communities to be built in 4S Ranch. We did not want to wait until summer/fall 2008 as interest rates may go up however we also will have to see if the prices for the new homes continue to drop, if it does, it may justify waiting to buy at a higher interest rate.

4spotentialbuyer

[cyphire]

If rates go up, house prices should correspondingly go down, perhaps at an even greater rate. Could you imagine the price of homes if there was another 1% added to the 30 year benchmark?

As more potential buyers flee from owning, interest rate increases should accelerate the trend.

Am I banking on this? No. I think that interest rates will stay stable for some time as it would put too much pressure on housing. Could they fall? Perhaps but not by much.

Note: I am no expert. I am a computer exec. This is just my humble opinion, but at this point nothing would surprise me!

[cyphire]

If rates go up, house prices should correspondingly go down, perhaps at an even greater rate. Could you imagine the price of homes if there was another 1% added to the 30 year benchmark?

As more potential buyers flee from owning, interest rate increases should accelerate the trend.

Am I banking on this? No. I think that interest rates will stay stable for some time as it would put too much pressure on housing. Could they fall? Perhaps but not by much.

Note: I am no expert. I am a computer exec. This is just my humble opinion, but at this point nothing would surprise me!

[Arraya]

Lack of affordibilty is the main problem with local real estate. An increase in interest rates can only exacerbate the affordibility problem and push prices further down…

It all boils down to the affordibility of the area realative to peoples income. Home prices will not stop declining until they get somewhat in line with the affordibilty to the people in the area. It is much more complex than that however that is the issue boiled down to it’s simplist form.

[Arraya]

Lack of affordibilty is the main problem with local real estate. An increase in interest rates can only exacerbate the affordibility problem and push prices further down…

It all boils down to the affordibility of the area realative to peoples income. Home prices will not stop declining until they get somewhat in line with the affordibilty to the people in the area. It is much more complex than that however that is the issue boiled down to it’s simplist form.

[buyorhold]

4spotentialbuyer,

I do not have the upgrade price sheet, unfortunately. I do have the pricing info based on what we have added as upgrades.

I agree with you, John’s comments was extremely sexist. I am also the one that is more skeptical about purchasing a home in the current market. My husband, on the other hand, does not want to be bothered by my constant worries and questions about the market. I also generate decent income for our family.

Good luck w/everything!

buyorhold

[buyorhold]

4spotentialbuyer,

I do not have the upgrade price sheet, unfortunately. I do have the pricing info based on what we have added as upgrades.

I agree with you, John’s comments was extremely sexist. I am also the one that is more skeptical about purchasing a home in the current market. My husband, on the other hand, does not want to be bothered by my constant worries and questions about the market. I also generate decent income for our family.

Good luck w/everything!

buyorhold

[Author]

Posts