Weak Dollar is bullish for Real Estate

[justme]

Folks,

schizo2buyORnot is an obvious shill that has posted two gee-whiz posts about increasing prices or increasing demand today already.

Don’t even bother taking this guy seriously.
Seriously.

[Anonymous]

The dollar is falling because the govt is keeping interest rates artificially low to boost the economy–including the shaky RE sector. In that respect, a weak dollar is good for real estate in the short run, but it only makes the inevitable crash bigger and the recovery longer. Ask the Japanese how this tactic works.

[4plexowner]

I don’t think he’s a shill – I think he’s trying to talk himself into buying a house and wants us to support his decision – good luck with that

From a psychological perspective it is rather sad to see a seemingly intelligent human being trying to brain-wash themselves into believing that buying real estate in San Diego makes sense right now

[schizo2buyORnot]

Justme,

If you read my first posts on this blog, I am a transplant from the DC area. Owned a house there for years, sold it at a profit, and have resources to buy here in San Diego, even at these prices. However, I’m not foolish enough to catch a falling knife for no reason (the RE market recently). I am a renter now. However, I may be a buyer very soon. I will buy a house in San Diego its just a question of timing. I am constantly seeking information to get a real gauge on where the market is and where it is headed. Who am I a shill for???? What is my motive??? Answer there is none. I’m just looking for the right entry point. My patience over the past several months has already paid off. I’m just not convinced RE Armageddon is just around the corner. It may be . . . but I have seen no hard facts to support it.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[temeculaguy]

Schizo, I feel you brother. You are doing the right thing by taking the spin that the salesperson at the 4-s models or George Chamberlin on the radio tells you and letting us unspin it for you. You need to realize that you are looking for a reason to buy and still can’t find it. The fact that you are on this site means that you really do know better, you just need affirmation like someone who needs their AA meetings. We don’t need to convince you, you need to convince your wife. Model homes to wives can be like porshe dealerships to husbands, it’s better to not even go look at them. Everything about them are marketed to the wife, just understand that she can’t help herself much like you can’t not look at the big T.V.’s at costco, it’s instinct. Try some distractions on weekends, Summer is almost here and San Diego has a million fun things to do that can tie up your weekend. Buy her a dog, go look at the new hard top convertible BMW, feed the homeless, tell her the models are closed because they found a dead body there or that Oprah said the carpeting caused fibro-myalga, do anything but for god sake keep her away from those models.

[temeculaguy]

One more thing, I checked the crystal ball and it says that 800k tract homes on small lots that aren’t on the coast go down in value every quarter for at least another year.

[SD Realtor]

heheheh – Funny post temecula… well the wife doesn’t like 4s and the cookie cutter types of homes… doesn’t like beemers… drives the toyota truck instead… and we already have dogs… any advice for me?

SD Realtor

[schizo2buyORnot]

Temeculaguy,

Sound advice on distracting the wife when she wants to go look at the new home models “honey . . . these aren’t the droids you are looking for . . . move along.” Do you think it will work???? 🙂

One note to critics, I have never quoted some pundit like David Learah or what’s his bucket on money in the morning to support anything I have posited here. I have tried to throw objective facts (dollar decline, sales numbers, inventory numbers, actual sale prices of recent homes in area I am thinking of buying [4S]) at the Piggingtonians and see their take on it. It’s good thing to do. I have deliberately thrown some of the FACTUAL information that could indicate a firming just to see someone take the otherside and add balance to the difficult task of me interpreting the RE market. Isn’t that the essence of this blog’s purpose??? Sometimes the response I get here is reasoned, sound, and the product of critical thinking. Sometimes it is just as inane, baseless, and useless (such as “I gaurantee you a RE bloodbath is just around the corner”) as Learah and friend’s endless, ongoing, and shifting predictions of a bottom.

What has worked to date with the wife is “honey you could buy that house now and then in six months we can go out to the front drive way, dump $25,000 to $30,000 in $100 dollar bills, pour gas on it, and light it on fire. Or we can rent for six more months and keep the pile of cash. I then explain that buying in a declining market would be akin to burning the cash in terms of equity lost. So far she gets this . . . reluctantly. I can see where this is going already. Can you say premium upgraded appliances for the kitchen when we eventually buy a place??? I just hate to rent. Financially its the wisest move right now. Lifestyle wise I hate it and money is not everything.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[temeculaguy]

OK Sd keep the wife, you gotta love the toyota truck driving wife that wants old scripps, she’s got style. I think Schizo has the idea you need, JEDI MIND TRICKS, that is classic, I’m bummed I didn’t throw that one in. Come to think of it, high end commercial appliances are the modern day equivalent of jedi mind tricks on women. Take her to pacific sales, there’s one near 4-s (the best prices on high end) and show her some wolf stoves and bosch dishwashers, some dacor ovens and sub zero fridges, even let her see the warming drawers, damn i miss my warming drawer and the perfect new york hot dog cart style steamed buns it created, they have mock kitchens set up by brand. That is the modern day feminine equivalent of “these are not the droids you are looking for.” Tell her that every month you wait, one item is essentially free.

Schizo, ignore the radicals on both ends of the spectrum or those with an agenda, the truth usually lies in the middle. Do follow Dr. Robert Shiller of Yale, that boy has his act together and I haven’t figured out his motivation toward either side, he called the tech bubble and I ignored him then so he still has juice with me and may be closest you get to a crystal ball. It’s real easy to say that houses will decline 50% by friday when you probably can’t afford it even then. You, like alot of us know that that house will go down 100k by October and even though we can afford it now and we won’t go in the poor house either way, it will mean the difference between curly head arturo fuente cigars and arturo’s hemingway series as your daily smoke, so it’s worth it to brush up on the jedi mind tricks.

By October I’ll think of another distraction because that may still be premature, but you need to tell her October because there is a formula for wife years just like there is a formula for dog years, Dog years is 7 to 1 but wife years is measured in holiday seasons and she won’t buy into a strategy that includes two thanksgivings and two christmases in a rental (4 wife years), October isn’t even a legal wife year so we go with that for now.

[4plexowner]

temeculaguy – I love the wife years – LOL!

[Anonymous]

A weak dollar is NOT bullish for real estate.

While a cheap dollar might make properties cheaper
for foreigners, most homes are going to continue to be
bought and owned by people who earn their incomes
in local currency, by working in the local area.

Much more importantly, a weakening dollar limits
the Fed’s freedom to cut interest rates. First,
a weakening dollar suggests that international investors
may already find current interest rates insufficient to
inspire them to hold financial assets in greenbacks.

Secondly, since we import so much of what we consume,
a weakening buck is inflationary. IF the Fed intends
to keep inflation under control, they will hesitate
to cut interest rates, since doing so could weaken
the currency further, promoting more inflation, etc,
in the manner of a snowball rolling down a fresh-powdered
slope.

[Author]

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