Early March Numbers

[sdrealtor]

Rockem,
He deserves a break;)

NSR,
In some areas like the South Bay it is looking like it will be down 40 to 50%. Overall it’s looking like 25% down in the attached market and 28% in the detached market. Final stats take at least a week or two after month end to have any reliability due to late reporters. Also end of months tend to be very busy for closings so it could get alot better or alot……

[no_such_reality]

Overall it’s looking like 25% down in the attached market and 28% in the detached market.

I realize it could swing dramatically, but I chuckle everytime I hear talking heads talking about the improvement cause volume is only down in the teens or single digits from 2006.

That’s nice, but 2006 was down a pretty consistent 30% from 2005.

So being down 28% on top of being down 30% from the prior year lobs you in at literally 1/2 of the volume from March 2005.

It won’t be long now, they’ll talk about the resurging market since volume is up 5% YOY, but that of course will still leave us down 25%-40% from 2005.

Actually, I’ll stand corrected by myself. I just rechecked the volume numbers from SignOn.

For SFRs in July, Central SD had the following:
758 – 2004
602 – 2005
463 – 2006

North Coastal in July had:
580 – 2004
455 – 2005
293 – 2006

North Coastal was at half bubble volume last summer! April shows the same volume collapse. March has a change in data format, but it appears March 04-’05 was flat.

[sdrealtor]

NSR,
The SFR market in North Coastal running from Carmel Valley/Del Mar to Carlsbad (I dont look at RSF or Oceanside as being part of this market as they are very different places than the others) had the following July volume:

1996 – 161
1997 – 220
1998 – 224
1999 – 232
2000 – 167
2001 – 225
2002 – 276
2003 – 328
2004 – 287
2005 – 228
2006 – 175
2007 – ?

In what I’d consider a normal market here sales should fall between 225 and 250 for July. I dont know if we’ll get there because of a lack of inventory not demand in these areas. If there was better inventory at these price levels I could add 5 or so to the sales count.

I’d wager a beer that this July is better last.

SDR

[JJGittes]

I would not make that bet with you. From what I am seeing in your zips at this moment, the only thing in the way of a good sales volume summer is inventory. Stuff has been selling, much to my surprise in the coastal n. county areas. Even some of the older stuff has gone pending. Amazing.

Heck, if things continue as they have in the last couple of months, I would not be surprised at a micro-rally happening around here this summer.

[Bugs]

How about this for a coincidence?

The MLS lists 1786 sales of SFRs/Condos for the period of 02/01/2007 – 02/28/2007; and at the moment it lists 1,786 sales for the period between 03/01/2007 – 03/28/2007.

Because sdr pointed it out a few months ago, I realize that some of the agents lag a bit in reporting their sales and we still have 3 days to go this month, so March’s numbers will go higher. However, I am a bit surprised that they aren’t already substantially higher right now.

The MLS reported 29,000+ sales for all of 2006, which averaged out to ~2,400 sales a month. The February 2006 sales amounted to 1,913 (6.5% more than 2007), and the March 2006 sales amounted to 2,906 which is a substantial jump (35%) over the preceding month. In order to show a similar jump this year, March 2007 would have to top out at about 2,400 sales, which is a long ways to go from the current 1,786.

I guess the big question is how many MLS listings resulting in sales occurring earlier this month have yet to be updated?

[sdrealtor]

Between late reporters and EOM closings we could see as many as 400 more. I’d be surprised to see substantially more but not substantially less.

[an]

Another question would be, how many sales fell out of escrow because of the sub-prime fiasco that happened a few weeks ago. Sale are not final until funds are secure. I guess we’ll see the full extent of the sub-prime problem by April/May number.

[Bugs]

As of the end of the day the number had already jumped to just over 2,000, which is a pretty big jump for the one business day. Maybe it will hit 2,400 by the time it’s all over.

[schizo2buyORnot]

All RE is local . . . . areas hit the worst are the worst areas . . . .

[img_assist|nid=2996|title=Top SD Foreclosure zip codes|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=299|height=500]

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[sdrealtor]

March closing up to 2107 with more late reporters to come. That’s an additional 321 so far which makes my guestimate of 400 additional last week look pretty good.

[Bugs]

The 400 bump does look good, but I still don’t think we’ll hit the 2400 number that would represent the 35% increase over February’s numbers, and we’re even farther off the number from March 2006 at 2,900.

[sdrealtor]

I’m with you Bugs. I think we end up around 2200. It seems to me that we are seeing the beginnings of the Subprime divide where outlying areas die quickly due to the lack of financing while more desireable areas hang tough at least for the time being.

[PerryChase]

Why New Home Sales is a Much More Significant Measure of the Housing Recession than Existing Home Sales. And the Worsening Housing Recession…

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/185580
Interesting article by Roubini.

How do new home sales get reported for San Diego?

[sdrealtor]

Up to 2206 already. Kind of surprising but we might reach 2300.

[Author]

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