[schizo2buyORnot]

pepsi,

Thanks for the excellent substantive info enlightening the significance, or lack thereof, of the steady SD inventory number. Exactly the kind of insight I was seeking when I posed the question to the PIGS re what the steady inventory means/portends. My faith is restored. There are still nuggets of wisdom to be had here. 🙂

I found the following link to the whole story for those interested.

http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond/California~San_Diego~bobcasagrand

I concur that it is “sad.” Not to fret, ad hominem attacks against an anonymous alias is amusing to watch.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

Bubble,

http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/

If one examines the link which is just one of many indicators, but an important one . . . namely the inventory of unsold homes, one finds that at least in SD the inventory since April yoy is basically flat (slightly up one month, slightly down 2, slightly up one) on a “y e a r o v e r y e a r” basis. I threw out for the wise PIGS to comment on what this means especially when the other markets in the southwest have continued to climb. It is a fact that inventory is at a record high it is not still increasing as of April of 07 according to the statistical body of information used by the people at the website (MLS listings). Never said its a bottom, never said there is not more downside, just am trying to determine if this stablized inventory portends anything with respect to a bottom in the market. Even if it does portend a pending bottom (a big if) we could be at the bottom for some time unless the Congress decides in an election year that they need to bribe for votes all the lame brained buyers who “bet it all on red” by getting a sub-prime loan on a value bloated SFH at the top.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

JWM,

What are you saying exactly when you say one seeking advice, facts, evidence, solid information is misguided because they should know after all they are “posting on a housing bear blog . . . .” Do you mean to say that some of what goes on here is just a mass therapy session for us renters, no need to site stats but rather just comfort each other in a collective group think that soon we will all be in SFH nirvana as the market crashes and burns. No need to delve into pesky things like evidence, leading indicators, facts, etc.???

So your view is that “to come here expecting to get advice” is somehow misguided and contrary to the purpose of the blog. Last time I checked the “about” section of this blogs home page it begins with its raison d’etre which is . . . and I quote:

About Piggington’s Econo-Almanac
The purpose of Professor Piggington’s Econo-Almanac for the Landed Poor is to provide in-depth, unbiased analysis of the Southern California housing market.

About the Econo-Almanac

Are you telling me that Toscano has abandoned this principle without informing those visiting his site and instead has turned it over to the “sour grapes” crowd and made it just a “housing bear blog” and me “coming her to get advice” is at odds with its mission to “provide in-depth, unbiased analysis.” I somehow missed the its just a “housing bear blog” part. I suspect Toscano wouldn’t believe it “galling” for someone to come here to seek “advice on how to time the market.” No hissy fit here just sifting the wheat from the chaff.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

Ex-SD

Its the epitome of inane vanity and speaks volumes as to the shallowness of the logic when one is reduced to nothing more than ad hominem attacks against another anonymous blogger. To come on an Internet blog under an anonymous pseudonym and boast about what a genius you are and what fools everyone else is so pathetic, since proof of such claims is so readily available and evident. Such statements alone dictate that there is nothing more to the argument than mere opinion, hopes, prayers, wishes, emotions etc. devoid of reason or substance. Who knows the truth of your personal claims to greatness. It could all be BS. Stick to objective publicly verifiable facts, especially as an anonymous blogger and a site such as this.

Here let me have a go at it . . . I was Donald Trump’s closest advisor and confidant for the last 15 years. I am the oracle of all his knowledge from the beginning. I easily made over $250 mil during the last 7 years on commercial and residential real estate. I am the sage of all knowledge and wisdom when it comes to RE investing . . . etc. etc. etc. Trust me its true! I then cashed out at the top, the exact top, of all of the various markets I was invested in and shorted the dollar and doubled my RE profits. I now own an entire island in the Carribean with 50 of the finest servants at my disposal. I am here to be ready to pounce on all of the poor misfortuned fools who are riding the SD RE market down and will scoop it all up at the exact bottom. I really have a “crystal ball” which made it all possible. I get next weeks Wall Street Journal delivered to my door step each morning. The rest is a cake walk. I defy anyone to prove otherwise.

Found the crystal ball . . . filthy rich RE tycoon.

PS. For those in Rio Linda . . . its called Satire.

[schizo2buyORnot]

“If insider buying is any indication, home builders and financial-services providers expect dramatic reversals of fortune in the coming months.”

. . .

“Bush 43 faces the same dilemma, only this time the bad loans are right here at home. His choices: He can thumb his nose at lenders who made stupid loans, castigate brainless homeowners who took out mortgages they could not repay, jail fraudster mortgage brokers who exploited a loosey-goosey system to generate exorbitant fees — and stand smugly by as families in Republican strongholds across the West and South lose their homes. Or he could follow his dad’s Brady bonds solution and basically forgive and forget by launching a mortgage bailout of unprecedented scope.”

. . .

“As a result . . . the nationwide housing collapse would disappear as an election theme for Democrats.”

Watch out . . . PIGS love to dare “put your money where your mouth is.” When Wall Street gets wind of upcoming events and starts to put real money into it they are doing exactly this. Apparently at least some people (smart or fools . . . time will tell) are putting money on a semi-bailout leading to possible (emphasis on possible) “dramatic reversals” in the housing market. This bears watching.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

JWM Your right . . . my point exactly. The site is a mixed bag. Some come for the wisdom of the “sound reasoned persons” and some come to chant “rah rah rah the market is going to crash and burn and then we are going to get into SD SFH at bargain basement prices!!!” . . . (while crossing their fingers and wishing and hoping it to occur.) It’s a big tent there’s room for both you just have to be able to distinguish between the two.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

Fish sandwiches at Point Loma seafood . . . .

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

Ex-SD,

Congrats on your good fortune . . . I wish misfortune on no one. So I can “take it to the bank” that all of the future buyers which are stacking up on the sidelines (like me) and renting will take a casual nonchalant entry into the market such that I will have days, weeks, months of forewarning and notice before a measurable appreciation trend becomes apparent. That the areas I want my family to live in CV, 4S, Scripps, etc. will not see a significant increase in buyer activity once the collective wisdom assesses that the market has turned. I can absolutely rely (synonymous with “take it to the bank”) that me and everyone else crowding the sidelines of future buyers wont cause anything like a spike up in prices when the market eventually turns. Sorry if I don’t share your degree of certainty about a turn in an asset market my experience to date has been the opposite. The turn is hard to detect.

Ex-SD On a side note if you sold, made your bundle, and live in S. Carolina why do you spend so much time on this blog for “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis” especially as a poster. I don’t detect gloating do I???

Psst! Quick someone pin a star on Ex-SDs forehead for his RE investing acumen and genious for selling and “cashing out” when he did.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

Ex-SD,

On the contrary . . . I am a very skeptical person who wants to see some hard information to base a crucial decision on (when is the right time to buy a SFH in a decent neighborhood in SD). Anecdotes and pontifications that “the market is going done 50% from here guaranteed . . . .” etc. etc. blah blah blah don’t interest me. Much of what I read here is this type of gibberish, but certainly not all. There is some very good information from some very sound reasoned persons. The problem I think is that aside from this group (the sound reasoned group) there is a healthy group of what I think of as the Piggington “sour grapes crowd” which is to say people who either 1) missed the last boom entirely and are bitter and hoping for a catastrophic decline to rectify their poor judgement of the past, or 2) people who either weren’t financially in a posistion to buy during the early stages of the boom or people (like me) who moved to SD towards the end of the boom and lament this coming to the party late. This leads to a lot of emotion and wishful thinking behind much of their statements. At least with respect to the first group, they totally mis-timed the market on the way up whats not to say their same flawed reason is going to make them mis-time the market when it bottoms and turns WHICH EVENTUALLY IT WILL DO . . . . The key question is when (if only I had that crystal ball I’ve been searching for . . . .). I have lived through various asset market ups and downs in both RE and equities. It is my experience that the actual moment of the turn is discerned by very few and that those few had the discipline to view things in a dispassionate and critical way devoid of emotion. The bottom line is its possible to detect signs or harbingers of a turn (up or down) but very few do it. Everyone else is left with the “damn I woulda coulda shoulda” after the turn is clearly evident and its either too late or very late. I throw up questions to PIGS and do get back nuggets of good info from the PIG crowd, but at the same time have to abide the mindless blather of the “sour grapes” crowd. One leading indicator (for those in Rio Linda that means the turn has not happened yet but a clue that it may be coming) of a turn is stablizing inventory. SD inventory has stablized yet other factors still indicate that bottom is distant. I just want to time the most significant financial decision I probably will make in the future (by a SFH in SD in a good neighborhood) as closely to the bottom as possible . . . . thats all. 🙂

Impatient renter . . . .

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

1. The comparison and statement is year over year. Looking at the last month, 3months, 6months etc. Is misleading. What was the inventory at this time last year. (i.e. has the market gotten better, worse, or stabilized in the past year.)

2. For all of the comments on “phantom inventory” and people moving “up and out of the market” etc. etc. etc. Are you saying that these phenomenon are unique to San Diego only and don’t exist in . . . oh lets say Orange County or Riverside??? If you are going to make the argument that “phantom inventoy” (if it exists to any significant degree at all) and “people moving out of the market” as phenomena skewing inventory is only happening in San Diego and not elsewhere please explain why only in SD and not in OC or Riverside. Otherwise the point is still apt and valid . . . namely SD RE inventory is stable yoy for the past 2 months while other markets are higher. This could portend that SD is leading the way, as it has done throughout the cycle, of arriving at the bottom first. Thats all.

Impatient renter . . . .
In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

Of course a FOMC rate cut will “help.” It won’t stop what is happening but it will alleviate it to some degree. What that degree is remains to be seen. But to say an interest rate cut won’t help is naive. Help but not a panacea. Perhaps the biggest effect would be psychological. The actual affect on interest rates may indeed be marginal. However, if all of the people stacking up on the sidelines of SFH purchases get the sense that the fed is going to begin a cycle of cutting they may in unison or large portion decide the time to buy has arrived. Not PIGS of course but those prone to believe the bottom is just around the corner and they must just wait a little while more. An interest rate cut may goad them to act and buy. There is no question that there are a growing number of people who eventually plan on buying a SFH in San Diego but are waiting for the right time. When they decide to buy in sigificant numbers, whatever the impetus, it will certainly affect housing to the upside. The biggest affect on housing may be psychological.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

Market Timing, in any market, is a fool’s game

Piggington is great, but one thing that irks me is the self aggrandizing so called market geniuses who prophesy the marekt is going to do “X over the next several months/years.” Fact is no one knows. Granted there is a clear trend which has persisted and history suggests it may persist for some time more. But there is no guarantee or even high probability that it will do so. For all we know today may be the bottom of the SD RE market. I don’t believe it is but its just that “a belief.” Those who scream and rant about the foolish decisions one has made or may make today are just full of hot gas. Give me facts and reason not your worthless opinions or selfish hopes.

Again as stated my one of the greatest investors of all time. “Market timing is a fool’s game.”

Peter Lynch echoed these thoughts in his book, One Up on Wall Street:

“Thousands of experts study overbought indicators, oversold indicators, head-and-shoulder patterns, put-call ratios, the Fed’s policy on money supply, foreign investment, the movement of the constellations through the heavens, and the moss on oak trees, and they can’t predict the markets with any useful consistency, any more than the gizzard squeezers could tell the Roman emperors when the Huns would attack….”

http://www.fool.com/boringport/1999/boringport991227.htm

Impatient renter . . . .

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

That explains a lot . . . the place I am looking at (and my wife is dying to buy in) 4S Ranch (zip 92127) has a median income of $97,000. I may be waiting a long time for prices to crater there . . . .

Looks like plan B may be looming . . . “house in a box” in Imperial county

http://news.com.com/Photos+Special+delivery+Your+house+in+a+box/2300-11392_3-6205133.html

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

I am starting to despair that the really big price drops will only be out in some BFE crap hole neighborhood in east Inland Empire where I have to commute for 2hrs on $3 a gallon gas and that the places I want to buy like 4S/Scripps remain out of reach . . . people seem to keep buying there no matter the climate

Impatient renter

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

The second link has true inventory numbers. This is a hard fact. Interpret how you may but don’t try and shade a hard fact which indicates that inventories have stabilized year over year. They are not rising on a year over year basis and have not risen on a year over year basis for the last 4 months in SD.

http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/

Stabilizing inventory levels are not indicative of an imploding market.

Impatient renter

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[Author]

Posts