San Diego Inventories flat year over year . . . other southwest/Calif. markets all higher. Why? Is SD near a bottom?

[patientlywaiting]

schizo2buyORnot, not sure what other data you need.

Rent and bank the difference. Unless you can get a guaranteed return greater than the ownership premium, you should rent. What’s so difficult about that?

BTW, what do you with all the foreclosures? Those are phamtom inventory about to hit the market. Nothing secret about that.

I like your style JWM. Short, sweet and to the point. 🙂

[ocrenter]

schizo…

…in search of a way to annoy us all.

[Ex-SD]

schizo2buyORno: Nope, not gloating at all. I’m interested in SD because I lived there for 30 years and I’ll probably move back after it bottoms out. (I miss the coastal weather). You didn’t have to be a genius to assess the timing of the slowdown and eventual crash. If you weren’t smart enough to do so yourself, I suggest you quit posting your drivel and learn more from reading posts from people who are a lot more savvy than you.

[Anonymous]

Chubby Rascal

I have been keeping a monthly record of the listings on SingonSanDiego.com since January 1, 2007 so I don’t have year over year comparisons yet, but since January 1 the listed resale inventory is up 35%.

[CarlsbadMtnBiker]

“JWM Your right . . . my point exactly. The site is a mixed bag. Some come for the wisdom of the “sound reasoned persons” and some come to chant “rah rah rah the market is going to crash and burn and then we are going to get into SD SFH at bargain basement prices!!!” . . . (while crossing their fingers and wishing and hoping it to occur.) It’s a big tent there’s room for both you just have to be able to distinguish between the two.”

Shizo .. I agree. This site is a mixed bag, however as a sideliner and mainly an observer for a little over a year, I say there is mostly rah rah rah doomsdayers on many of the postings. I’m not informed enough to take any sides just yet but can differentiate the ranters from good posters with reasonable logic backed by good support. My observation continues and maybe sometime soon I can post & debate. I love a good debate. Anyway, It’s good to see a good post like yours come along asking for qualified responses backed by good support. So far, most of your responses so far are just more blah blah blah …

I enjoyed reading your rebuttals to Ex-SD .. his last response says it all. You reduced him to asking for you to just go away. Keep posting !

[schizo2buyORnot]

Ex-SD

Its the epitome of inane vanity and speaks volumes as to the shallowness of the logic when one is reduced to nothing more than ad hominem attacks against another anonymous blogger. To come on an Internet blog under an anonymous pseudonym and boast about what a genius you are and what fools everyone else is so pathetic, since proof of such claims is so readily available and evident. Such statements alone dictate that there is nothing more to the argument than mere opinion, hopes, prayers, wishes, emotions etc. devoid of reason or substance. Who knows the truth of your personal claims to greatness. It could all be BS. Stick to objective publicly verifiable facts, especially as an anonymous blogger and a site such as this.

Here let me have a go at it . . . I was Donald Trump’s closest advisor and confidant for the last 15 years. I am the oracle of all his knowledge from the beginning. I easily made over $250 mil during the last 7 years on commercial and residential real estate. I am the sage of all knowledge and wisdom when it comes to RE investing . . . etc. etc. etc. Trust me its true! I then cashed out at the top, the exact top, of all of the various markets I was invested in and shorted the dollar and doubled my RE profits. I now own an entire island in the Carribean with 50 of the finest servants at my disposal. I am here to be ready to pounce on all of the poor misfortuned fools who are riding the SD RE market down and will scoop it all up at the exact bottom. I really have a “crystal ball” which made it all possible. I get next weeks Wall Street Journal delivered to my door step each morning. The rest is a cake walk. I defy anyone to prove otherwise.

Found the crystal ball . . . filthy rich RE tycoon.

PS. For those in Rio Linda . . . its called Satire.

[people_are_smart]

Regarding similar YOY inventory, I would take a look at the percentage of distressed sales out of total listings. Have you noted the distinct shift in the character of the listings since last year?

The peak was specifically noted by posters on this forum and it didn’t seem too complicated at the time. I don’t think the bottom will be that hard either. Listen to Bugs about the two sides of supply and demand. Consider the further impact of tightening credit, coupled with ever mounting foreclosures. Do you really not have enough data to make an informed decision? There are no signs of price stability. The only thing left to do is discuss how fast, how much, and how long.

If we are near the bottom, what does that mean? Are we looking forward to 10%+ YOY appreciation again? Ask yourself how that is even possible. Loans have to be repaid. Prices now are divorced from this concept.

I for one, hope for at least a 50% reduction in prices but not to make a fortune flipping the market. I am looking to eventully reduce my overall cost of living by owning. ~50% is how far prices have to drop from a basic affordability standpoint. Most of the “Rah Rah Rah” on this board is cheering for the return of sanity instead of the previous speculative mania.

[JWM in SD]

I’ve got news for you Schizo, you posted on a housing bear blog…WTF did you expect? That we were going to tell you that is all is good and we are hitting bottom right now?

I don’t need to cite stats anymore. The MSM is doing that for me. I can direct you a number of sites including Toscano’s posts here for objective evidence.

If you still can’t figure it out, then you are on your own.

I think it’s pretty galling for you to come here expecting to get advice on how to time the market and then when some of the posters don’t tell you what you want to hear you have a hissy fit over.

[patientlywaiting]

You’re right JWM, all the data is there. The MSM provides it to us everyday (reset charts, defaults, etc.. ) If not, look at the mls listings languishing on the market with reductions upon reductions. The short sales, the foreclosures, etc…

Even areas of the country with “affordable” housing are foreclosure centrals. The easy money spigot has only began to be turned off. 2 to 3 million foreclosures are expected. How anyone can figure a bottom until all those foreclosures have taken place and sold is beyond me?!! And they want more data *&!! Are the current and upcoming foreclosures not phantom inventory?

[schizo2buyORnot]

JWM,

What are you saying exactly when you say one seeking advice, facts, evidence, solid information is misguided because they should know after all they are “posting on a housing bear blog . . . .” Do you mean to say that some of what goes on here is just a mass therapy session for us renters, no need to site stats but rather just comfort each other in a collective group think that soon we will all be in SFH nirvana as the market crashes and burns. No need to delve into pesky things like evidence, leading indicators, facts, etc.???

So your view is that “to come here expecting to get advice” is somehow misguided and contrary to the purpose of the blog. Last time I checked the “about” section of this blogs home page it begins with its raison d’etre which is . . . and I quote:

About Piggington’s Econo-Almanac
The purpose of Professor Piggington’s Econo-Almanac for the Landed Poor is to provide in-depth, unbiased analysis of the Southern California housing market.

About the Econo-Almanac

Are you telling me that Toscano has abandoned this principle without informing those visiting his site and instead has turned it over to the “sour grapes” crowd and made it just a “housing bear blog” and me “coming her to get advice” is at odds with its mission to “provide in-depth, unbiased analysis.” I somehow missed the its just a “housing bear blog” part. I suspect Toscano wouldn’t believe it “galling” for someone to come here to seek “advice on how to time the market.” No hissy fit here just sifting the wheat from the chaff.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[bubble_contagion]

Schizo,

You wrote:

“SD inventory has stabilized”

Fact: Inventory is at record highs and still increasing.

Please explain your reasoning for your inventory statement?

[Anonymous]

I want to buy a house. Sold a year ago at the peak and banked the coin.

Right now is the wrong time…..I agree! My strategy is like this.

I have 6-8 houses that I have identified that are canidates to buy. Asking prices are 900K – 1.2 Mill

I will systematically make offers 25% – 30% below these prices. Eventually I will get someone who needs a cash buyer without contingency. This might still mean further declines in value…..but not a bad strategy.

IF all “no contingency” buyers did this…..we could speed up the reality check that most buyers need to wake up to the new reality.

[schizo2buyORnot]

Bubble,

http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/

If one examines the link which is just one of many indicators, but an important one . . . namely the inventory of unsold homes, one finds that at least in SD the inventory since April yoy is basically flat (slightly up one month, slightly down 2, slightly up one) on a “y e a r o v e r y e a r” basis. I threw out for the wise PIGS to comment on what this means especially when the other markets in the southwest have continued to climb. It is a fact that inventory is at a record high it is not still increasing as of April of 07 according to the statistical body of information used by the people at the website (MLS listings). Never said its a bottom, never said there is not more downside, just am trying to determine if this stablized inventory portends anything with respect to a bottom in the market. Even if it does portend a pending bottom (a big if) we could be at the bottom for some time unless the Congress decides in an election year that they need to bribe for votes all the lame brained buyers who “bet it all on red” by getting a sub-prime loan on a value bloated SFH at the top.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[Ex-SD]

schizo & CarlsbadMtnBiker: Both of you should go out and buy a house, TODAY!

Believe what you want about me, schizo. You have already revealed yourself to be a fool and a troll to everyone who reads this board. You obviously have no education in running a business or 9/10 of what you post would never make it to the screen.

Again……….please go out and buy a home in SoCal……..TODAY!

[CarlsbadMtnBiker]

“schizo & CarlsbadMtnBiker: Both of you should go out and buy a house, TODAY!”

Ex-SD reduced to making insults …. bummer.

I already own multiple properties Ex-SD and this SD native won’t need to join you in steamy North Carolina any time soon.., trust me on that. Stay there.

[Author]

Posts