San Diego Inventories flat year over year . . . other southwest/Calif. markets all higher. Why? Is SD near a bottom?

[Arraya]

I threw out for the wise PIGS to comment on what this means especially when the other markets in the southwest have continued to climb. It is a fact that inventory is at a record high it is not still increasing as of April of 07 according…

1: You are reading it incorrectly. Other southwest areas are not climbing. They all adjusted down from the 6 month to 12 month just like SD. They just have not adjusted down to flat YOY like SD. But they are all showing the same pattern. Possibly a seasonal thing. I believe march-aug is the hot season to sell.

2: As other posters have said. It is a somewhat meaningless stat. It’s all about months of inventory. The decrease in inventory did not translate into sales it translates to listings going away in some manner. Most listings that remain are “must sell” IMO

3: Sales continues to decline.

[Ex-SD]

CarlsbadMtnBiker wote: “I enjoyed reading your rebuttals to Ex-SD .. his last response says it all. You reduced him to asking for you to just go away. Keep posting !”
“I already own multiple properties Ex-SD and this SD native won’t need to join you in steamy North Carolina any time soon.., trust me on that. Stay there.”

Sounds like schizo & you are two peas in a pod. Why don’t you two form a syndicate and start buying a bunch of properties since we’re already at the bottom? If you want to align yourself with this fool, be my guest. You will simply be identified as another nut-job, just like him.

BTW: you obviously can’t read & comprehend very well. I said that I lived in South Carolina……..NOT North Carolina. And I live at the foot of the Smokey Mountains. Not so steamy here…………..but NO, it’s not coastal SD where I lived for 30 years. When the true bottom is found, it will stay around for quite a while and that’s when I’ll sell here and move back. I have zero desire to own any property in SoCal at this time since all of it is going to drop in value to one degree or another depending on the area. Remember: A penny saved is three earned.

[CarlsbadMtnBiker]

Ex-Sd wrote: “BTW: you obviously can’t read & comprehend very well. I said that I lived in South Carolina……..NOT North Carolina.”

shows you how much attention I paying to your “drivel” ok, moving on to other threads… I’ll agree that the Smokey Mtns is a nice place ..congrats on that. Peace Ex-SD and no more insults as you lose credibility.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Arguing on a blog is like the Special Olympics.

Even if you win, you still look retarded …

… not that there’s anything wrong with that.

[Ex-SD]

“Arguing on a blog is like the Special Olympics.
Even if you win, you still look retarded …
… not that there’s anything wrong with that.”

ROTFLMAO! Good one!

I’ll let Larry & Curly continue to advance their theories with no further interruptions.

[Dukehorn]

This is moronic,

Why would you even speculate on the inventory numbers when there’s a whole set of ARM resets over the next two years? Is there a definite bailout out there that most of us are unaware about?

You have your opinion which seemingly differs from everyone else’s. Go act on it…. Please.

[pepsi]

It is sad to see when people can not explain it, then dismiss your question and said that number is insignificant. Or even name calling…. that is really sad.
I also see that you are trying to hold your positive attitudes when replying those nasty responses. Good job. (I know it is not easy.) Like some of them said, if you are not happy to see what schizo2buyORnot asked, get off this board. It is a public board, and being a regular does not mean you are the only one that can ask people off this board.

Anyway, I wasn't able to answer your question when I first read this thread, either. But, this morning, Bob Casagrand posted his monthly analysis about the SD market, and he explained why:

The August inventory was 22,989 which gave us an 11 month supply. The months supply is an overall market average, depending on size of home this varies from a low of 8 months supply to a high of 14 months. This will also vary by condo or detached home. In fact condos now have a lower months supply than detached homes. Thru August we have had 55,205 homes listed with an additional 17,198 listed homes that carried over from 2006 giving us a total activity for all list status of 72,403. As high as this number appears it is actually down from 2006 by about 3,000 homes. Clearly fewer people are listing their homes for sale this year. The inventory levels are somewhat caused by the inability to sell due to reduced demand causing homes to stay on the market longer, sort of a piling on effect. The ratio of sold homes to all listing activity this year is 26%, by far the lowest in 5 years, compared to 2003 which had a 72% ratio. This year we have had 30,700 listings expire, cancel or withdraw from the market compared to 3,600 for 2003; this clearly demonstrates the difficulty in selling homes.

So, basically, last year, everyone knew the boom was ending and wanted to cash out and listed their home to give it a shot. This year, they knew the market is terrible, hence, less people listed it, unless they really need to sell. I hope that explain it why the listings in LA or other markets are still increasing (since SD is the leading city into the bear market).

 

So, are we near a bottom ? I think not. This is probably the first year of real decline and I think there are 2 – 3 years of this in our future.

[schizo2buyORnot]

pepsi,

Thanks for the excellent substantive info enlightening the significance, or lack thereof, of the steady SD inventory number. Exactly the kind of insight I was seeking when I posed the question to the PIGS re what the steady inventory means/portends. My faith is restored. There are still nuggets of wisdom to be had here. 🙂

I found the following link to the whole story for those interested.

http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond/California~San_Diego~bobcasagrand

I concur that it is “sad.” Not to fret, ad hominem attacks against an anonymous alias is amusing to watch.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

As I posted previously above, but was perhaps missed …

Months of inventory is more important than the raw number.

San Diego is ahead of the other markets. The reduced inventory is the effect of people who thought they might want to sell and possibly move up, getting out of the market. What remains is a higher majority of those who have to sell because they are moving, can’t afford it, facing foreclosure, etc, as well as those who inherited their homes, and those who have held for a long time and need to downsize.
We are likely to see a similar effect in the other SO Cal markets next year.

[Ex-SD]

schizo: I’m pleading with you…….Please, please, please……..go out and buy a really expensive house, TODAY!

BTW: Are you now admitting that you are a troll?

[ibjames]

In search of crystal ball to see if schizo will ever find his crystal ball…

[sdduuuude]

schizo – I have told you twice now to stop looking at raw inventory numbers and start looking at months of inventory, yet here is another post and a third time I must say so.

You can now add to that several others telling you the same thing.

Regarding the months-of-inventory plot that was posted – thanks. Maybe that will help the message sink in. A word is worth a millipicture.

[Dukehorn]

It’s not the fact that he asked the question. One wonders how many times he has to ask it and how many responses that he will accept before he STOPS asking the same question in literally the same time frame.

We know the resets are coming and the last I heard, there was no discussion of a bailout. If the situation hasn’t changed, why is the same question being repetitively asked?

Let’s pretend that Countrywide laying off 12,000 jobs is going to impact the RE market in a positive fashion while we’re at this exercise….

[Author]

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