cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later?

[CardiffBaseball]

Having listened to the excerpt from Dr. Laura earlier today, it sure makes me glad I was able to subdue my wife’s nesting instincts.

And let me say I don’t care one bit if it sucks for her because I strongly believe buying right now is a mistake. Tough shit. Now when she gets into a wouldn’t it be nice mood, I play along, because that’s what a good husband should do. My kids have a roof over their head and a large back yard to enjoy, and frankly they have what they need. I could win the lotto this week, and I’d tell my wife hell no we aren’t buying.

[waiting hawk]

“when she gets into a wouldn’t it be nice mood,”

Instead of her its me. She just goes along with what I am doing (after website and now seem like a god by people that know me). she cant stand me talking about every day and I know she wants to tell me to shut the f$%k up everyday.

[schizo2buyORnot]

Market Timing, in any market, is a fool’s game

Piggington is great, but one thing that irks me is the self aggrandizing so called market geniuses who prophesy the marekt is going to do “X over the next several months/years.” Fact is no one knows. Granted there is a clear trend which has persisted and history suggests it may persist for some time more. But there is no guarantee or even high probability that it will do so. For all we know today may be the bottom of the SD RE market. I don’t believe it is but its just that “a belief.” Those who scream and rant about the foolish decisions one has made or may make today are just full of hot gas. Give me facts and reason not your worthless opinions or selfish hopes.

Again as stated my one of the greatest investors of all time. “Market timing is a fool’s game.”

Peter Lynch echoed these thoughts in his book, One Up on Wall Street:

“Thousands of experts study overbought indicators, oversold indicators, head-and-shoulder patterns, put-call ratios, the Fed’s policy on money supply, foreign investment, the movement of the constellations through the heavens, and the moss on oak trees, and they can’t predict the markets with any useful consistency, any more than the gizzard squeezers could tell the Roman emperors when the Huns would attack….”

http://www.fool.com/boringport/1999/boringport991227.htm

Impatient renter . . . .

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[Ex-SD]

Explain it to her this way:
*Foreclosures are rising rapidly.
*Home and condo sales have fallen and the rate of fall is increasing
*Standing inventory of unsold homes continues to rise.
*Mortgages are no longer being handed out like free food samples at Costco.
*This is now putting tremendous pressure on sellers who will continue to lower their selling prices if they want to sell their SFR or condo.
*If she just has to buy that condo or SFR, NOW……….you’re going to be saddled with a property that you paid way too much for and you will be stuck with the higher property tax that will be based on what you paid for it plus close to $100k of extra interest that you will pay over the life of the loan.
*A condo that is now selling at $330k will most likely be selling for no more than $250k within 2-3 years.
*If she can’t see the logic and rationale…………you’re just going to have to say, NO!
*Anyone who buys any type of home in SD right now is going to regret it. (unless they have so much money that they just don’t care about throwing $100’s of thousands down the drain).

[Coronita]

FLU I think the reasoning on the IO loan is to conserve cash for dp on the detached home down the road. It is not a question of being upside down in the future, he will be upside down and most likely not be a little. However the condo will be kept and turned into a rental. The problem there is negative cash flow which indeed could be more substantial then at first glance. This is by far one of the largest underestimations first time landlords make.

One other disturbing thing about condos that "may" occur. Given a large complex that will undergo severe depreciation and may see substantial foreclosures that will have a potentially severe effect on HOA reserves. Remaining homeowners "may" indeed face assessments or reserve requirements payments due to the fact of shortfalls from higher vacancies….I doubt that a lender pays HOA dues for an empty condo, perhaps I am wrong. It is speculative to mention this but it certainly is not out of the realm of possibility.

SD Realtor

 

I see..

I guess the harder part for me to understand isn't the need to buy. It's about buying twice. wantobuy, I'm not questioning you and your wife's personal "need" to buy. But, it seems like buying something only for 2 years is really asking for trouble. Is there any particular reason why you are only looking in 4S ranch? The reason why I'm asking is because if you and you're wife's goal is to eventually move into a SFH, have you considered Rancho Penesquito? There are plenty of 600kish homes in the 2000sqft+-200.

Some other ones in the Camino del sur area, which are newer.

http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1652214&p3=-1&ix=29

http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1670350&p3=-1&ix=62

http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1647738&p3=-1&ix=64

Probably some wiggle room, as a lot of these homes have been on the market for a long time.

 

[recordsclerk]

Don’t buy the condo. If you must buy now, go ahead and buy the home in 4S Ranch. As long as you can make the payments, go ahead make her happy. I want to buy too, but I’m to cheap and don’t want to lose any money. Plan on staying in that house for a long time, you may be underwater for awhile. 4S Ranch is a very nice place. You also might want to make a deal with the wife. Tell her that if prices don’t drop by Novemeber in 4S, then she wins and you buy. If prices do drop, you both win and so do I.

[Bugs]

“Home” is where you make it. Whether you’re renting the house or renting the money to buy the house makes no difference in the end as far as the money goes, except that some rental agreements are more advantageous than others.

I’m sure much of the anxiety is based on the fear of missing the market and being priced out forever. All I can say is that the numbers don’t lie, and I’m not just talking about prices.

Both RB and 4S are more centrally located and as yet haven’t been as clearly engulfed in the current downtrend. That’s going to add some noise to the data and enable some people to overlook the big picture. Especially when they have industry shills and semi-literate sheeple as friends saying this market has seen the worst of its declines and we’re headed for another round of growth in the next couple months.

Lay it all out for her. Print out the ARM Reset Schedule graph from Ivy Zelman at Credit-Suisse Bank, and Rich’s opposing graphs of NOD/NOT activity and employment breakdowns. Somebody pointed out a graph that showed foreclosure activity dating back to the 1980s – our current position as already exceeding the worst of the 1990s should be an eye-opener, especially when supported by the NOT/NOT graph.

Sales Volumes are down. August 2007 may end up with 20% fewer sales than August 2006, and we’re headed toward the worst year for sales volumes since 1996.

No matter what, right now is not a good time to buy unless the money is no object.

I’d suggest you guys go to the 30-day plan; decide today isn’t the time and put off further negotiations for 30 days. During that time, take a break and don’t obsess over it unless you consider watching the market to be a form of entertainment.

Then revisit the whole thing anew, looking at the raw data; NOD/NOT ratios, sales volumes vs. active listings, etc. Sooner or later those opposing trends are both going to slow down drastically – that’s when it’s time to start thinking seriously about buying.

Or, you can just buy now and decide to be happy with that decision even if it adds another 10 years onto the length of time you’ll both need to work.

[HereWeGo]

I agree with records. Buy the house, wait 6 months and reassess whether you really want a condo as a rental property.

[seattle-relo]

It really sounds like you want your wife to be happy, that’s not at all unusual in a commited relationship. Ignore those who tell you to grow some balls, I would bet that in real life they don’t treat their siginificant others that way. Ask yourself what will really make her happy, you know her better than anyone on this website. Try to visualize how she (and you) would cope with the worst case scenario. My guess is that her unhappiness would be much greater if you were stuck in a condo for the next 10 years than her current unhappiness for not buying yet. People keep telling you to show her the data for her to understand why now is not the time to buy. If she is so emotionally caught up in buying a place now, the data may not really matter to her – she might even say she’s fine with a “paper loss” because her feelings are overruling logic. So rather then just shoving data down her throat, talk about her feelings and home of her dreams and how you want to make her happy, and that you know you can make her even happier if you just wait a little longer. In the end you will be making her happy if you hold off on buying, she just doesn’t know that yet. Because you love her and want to make her happy, wait.

[mixxalot]

Thank goodness I am single!

But seriously explain to her that with the thousands of dollars you would save by waiting to buy for a few years, it will pay for her taste in expensive shoes, handbags and vacations that women seem to demand these days from overworked men. Thats my take. I would be kind but firm and say

“Uh, honey, I understand you want a home but lets just wait a short while ok? Then with the money we save it will buy a nicer place and lots of things.”

Why is it that so many people lack basic financial common sense?

[sdcellar]

schizo– Yes, it’s difficult to predict things, especially as time horizons increase, but as bugs pointed out a few days ago, the one thing you can be pretty certain is prices will continue to go down next month.

While it’s fair to suggest that people stating where thing are going to be in 2010 (or whatever) could well be wrong, there’s an overwhelming probability that your statement that “today could be the bottom” is wrong.

Again, I say what’s the rush? House, condo, I don’t care, they’ll both go down in price before they go up if you buy them today.

[PadreBrian]

wantobuy/OP, I’m not to upset because condo prices in that area have already taken a beating. But, with that said, make sure you low ball it enough so that any more price drop for the next few months are factored in. ie 80k off what they are asking.

[sdcellar]

While it’s fair to suggest that wantobuy consider his relationship and commitment to his wife, it’s equally fair that his wife consider hers.

I know my wife wasn’t crazy about our decision to rent almost a year ago, but she’s done a complete 180. She even thanked me for it the other day, something about it being a really good decision…

[sdcellar]

wantobuy– are you sure you’re comparing apples to apples? You can rent a house in RB for $2200 a month.

[stockstradr]

“Folks, wife pressure is high.”

Yadda, yadda, yadda

Get some balls.

Now, I’m a typical husband, meaning 90% of time I follow her wishes (commands?).

Not on housing, at least not in a market like this.

Staying long housing (in this market) would lose too much of any family’s nest egg. My wife whined and whined about not wanting to sell our condo. She threw tantrums. My best friend who is an investment banker, got the same from his wife.

We told both our wives, “NO. You’re going to follow my direction on this one, because otherwise we going to lose hundreds of thousands in this housing market. That’s final decision.”

My wife understood she was either going to follow me on the housing decision OR I was moving into a hotel to let her sleep alone until she comes around. I’m serious.

She followed my advice. We sold the house. We saved a hundred grand (and more). She now respects me even more. She has bragged to her parents and friends, “My husband is really smart. We sold our house before the market crashed.”

My investment banker friend had the same experience.

Women like to run the house, and have their husband’s follow 95% of time.

Women also like their men on rare occasion in urgent situations to stand up, take charge and direct the family exactly what they are going to do to avoid a catastrophe. No discussion. The husband’s responsibility is to objectively understand those few situations where he has the experience and wisdom to spot the impending danger/catastrophe and help the family avoid it. All other times he generally keeps his mouth shut and listens to his wife.

[Author]

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