cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later?

[an]

patientlywaiting, I guess you haven’t ready any of my post for the last year since I start posting. I never said I would buy now. I’m only saying that we all have our own opinion about the market and they are not all the same. So the best we can do is give the OP all the data we have and let him make his own decision. Exerting your opinion on anyone is a futile path. I’d never try it.

“Why would a wife nag for a house? So she can decorate. How much does home decoration costs? It’s not cheap.”
What if she just want a home to raise a family for the next 30 years? Some people don’t care too much about making a buck as much as have a place to call their own. If everyone is really that $ conscious, then we all would see a major crash by now since everyone would sell their house in 2005. We all would also be driving 15 year old civics. Your point of view, while it’s suitable for yourself, does not apply to everyone. Please see this site motto. No one should trust you or I. So the best we can do is provide them the data and let them trust their own decision after having all the facts.

“My net-worth is higher than most individuals and I certainly don’t want to lose $300k, not even $100k. $100k equals about $665/mo for 30 years + property taxes. Wouldn’t you rather have the money to save or spend on what you want rather than sending it to the lender?”
There you go again with the $300k. Sorry but my crystal ball is not working right now, so I can’t confirm that. Also, your net-worth has nothing to do with this crystal ball statement and I could care less.

Regarding Airoso, they started building about 2 years ago and finished about 6-9 months ago. The beginning phases I think have more plan 3 & 4, that’s why we’re seeing more plan 3 & 4 on the resale market right now.

[an]

“AN, my compensation is not high relative to my position, I’m fairly compensated given my relative position, but that compensation is high relative to the median HHI.

My point is not that overpaid people are in more jeopordy in a downturn (that is a given), but rather that companies will opt to downsize in general and it will get increasingly difficult to find high paying jobs period.”

JWM, do you consider $100-200k/year high relative to the median HHI? If yes, do you expect nurses, pharmacists, dentist, optometrist, etc. will need to worry about their jobs as well? Do you expect people to stop getting into accidents, getting sick, needing medicine, needing their teeth clean, getting their eyes checked out, if/when the recession come?

[cyphire]

Asiannautica – I’m not sure that your comment:

“Why would a wife nag for a house? So she can decorate. How much does home decoration costs? It’s not cheap.”
What if she just want a home to raise a family for the next 30 years? Some people don’t care too much about making a buck as much as have a place to call their own. If everyone is really that $ conscious, then we all would see a major crash by now since everyone would sell their house in 2005.

… is necessarily true. Though I agree with much else of what you state. First of all – most people don’t raise a family for 30 years. My parents bought their final home together when I was 9 and sold it when I was 21… 12 years is a pretty good number – especially with the current trends in lifestyles, etc.

Everyone isn’t looking to buy at the dead bottom, and while I agree wholeheartedly that most people want a place to call their own – the illiquidity of the housing market demands that only suckers consider buying right now. The current market is in free-fall, but a slow free-fall, as most properties which would want to sell aren’t even on the market. The buyers aren’t there (other than the suckers) and it is only the summer/fall of 2007! Housing has only started to be on the national agenda. We don’t HAVE a recession right now, the stock market is still holding up.

What will happen (should happen) when (and of course IF!!!!) we start losing jobs, the market tanks, liquidity of credit goes away (starting already)…. It could make the mid 80’s and the 70’s look like a prosperity seminar!

400% increases in some properties since the late 90’s… Where they should be about 50% (or less!). I don’t blame women, and my wife knows what the score it – I’m so glad I don’t have to fight that fight – but neither one of us is happy not owning a home right now (we sold in Dec 06). But of course it would be foolish to buy.

One thing I read recently…. 40% of ALL job growth in California, I think since ’96 has been related to real estate. These jobs are dropping by the thousands and our bubble is only starting to get underway. The economy is dependent on consumer spending, and these consumers are less likely to spend. As to the dentist want-to-be note that many dentists do lots of cosmetic procedures and these non-necessary items will go by the wayside for many people, people will neglect their teeth (people don’t spend money on dentists when they lose their jobs or have a tight money situation)… I’m not saying that dentists will go away, but the industry (like most others) will have a large amount of the profit margin removed.

A recession means that everyone cuts back and most areas are hit… Some very hard, some less hard. Even commodities which are a safe haven in a recession are tough now because of Ethenol, Wheat demand internationally, etc.

Things are going to get MUCH, MUCH worse and the same people on this board who really didn’t imagine this day will not imagine what I am proposing right now…. Wait till this time next year.

[an]

“… is necessarily true. Though I agree with much else of what you state. First of all – most people don’t raise a family for 30 years. My parents bought their final home together when I was 9 and sold it when I was 21… 12 years is a pretty good number – especially with the current trends in lifestyles, etc.”

cyphire, I agree with the rest of your post and regarding this statement, in general, I agree as well. However, there are a good portion of the people I know who live in their house for well over 15 years. For many of them, that was their first home as well. They truly can call it their home and they have no intention of moving anytime soon. My parents for example bought their house in 1989 and still living there now. 1/2 of the people on their street bought their around the same time (new) as well and they’re still there. Most of them are Asian of course, so that might be the reason. This just prove my point earlier that we all have our own opinion based on what we see and our personal experiences. It doesn’t always apply the the next person. I love your post because it’s doesn’t sound like you’re trying to shove your opinion down anyone’s throat and calling them names; but more of just expressing your opinion and data. Data is the reason I’m still here.

[JWM in SD]

My wife is a pharmacist. Our combined gross income is greater than $220k. I think that is a little higher than the median HHI in SD. Maybe not La Jolla or RSF obviously. What is your point here?

As to healthcare weathering a severe recession? It will hold up better in all probability. However, like Cyphire said, it will be impacted. Businesses are businesses and profitability / going concern still rule at the end of the day.

Ask yourself this question: Did the standard of healthcare slip during the Depression? During the severe recession of the late seventies early eighties? I’ll bet it did.

[an]

My point is that not all employment area will be affected in a recession/depression. Nurses/doctors for example. Even if people don’t have insurance/job, if they get sick they still have to go to the hospital. With a massive shortage in nurses and good doctors these days, I highly doubt they’ll be layoff. I don’t know about pharmacist, dentist, optometrist, but I’d think pharmacist & optometrist are pretty recession proof too. Especially with the baby boomer getting near the age where they need even more pills and everybody need to update their glasses/contacts prescriptions. Recession/depression or not, we have to see.

If you think the economy going to go into such a crapper, then might as well go short the market if you think it’s such a sure thing. I don’t agree with your view of the economy going into a depression, so my view point is a little different than yours.

[sdcellar]

My parents for example bought their house in 1989 and still living there now.

Well, now we know where your 18-year “hypothetical” came from. The only part I’m not sure you have right is that they’ve got it almost paid off as a) 12 years still represents significant remaining P&I outlay and b) it’s usually not typical for children to know their parents payoff. Unless, of course, you were referring to a different hypothetical…

[JWM in SD]

“I don’t agree with your view of the economy going into a depression, so my view point is a little different than yours.”

I’m not sure that we are heading into a depression or not. However, I am quite certain that we will have a severe recession at the very least given current macro-economic conditions. I’m mostly acknowldging the possibility of it happening since the conditions for it have manifested themselves in the past two years and made the probability higher than it has been in the past 50 years or so.

Those professions will remain recession proof only until the businesses that hire remain profitable enough.

[sdcellar]

nurses, pharmacists, dentist, optometrist, etc.

Actually, I think you listed them in the proper order for most-to-least recession proof with the possibility of swapping dentists and optometrists.

If you think people who are having tougher times economically aren’t going to cut back on glasses and dentist visits (especially if they no longer have insurance), I think you’d be flat out surprised. Further, look how much both of those cater to the cosmetic side of the business nowadays. If more people wear their glasses longer and go with silver fillings instead of composites (and a boat load of other “services”), you can bet optometrists and dentists are going to feel the squeeze.

And, who do you think is going to feel it first? The docs? Nope, they’ll let staffers go before they cut back on their lifestyles…

[an]

sdcellar, my parents are not the only one that bought around that time. I know many who can easily pay it off at any moment if they wanted to since they bought it for mid 100k 18 years ago.

I agree dentist might get squeeze, especially since most don’t even take advantage of dental insurance even when they have them. But some how, I think optometrist still have clients even if they don’t have insurance. As a glasses wearer, my prescription periodically change and I NEED to go in and get new one. It’s quite unsafe to drive when your vision is blurry. Kids prescription tend to change much more rapidly as well which make it hard not to bring them in every year for a new prescription. For all those contacts wearer, they can’t buy anymore contacts after a year since it expire after that and they’d have to go in and get a new one.

JWM, I agree with your last post. They will be affected IF those company are financially affected. I think if it gets to that point, then we might see houses penny on the dollar since we all would be worrying about food instead of shelter. We can live w/out shelter but we can’t live w/out food. I do acknowledge that there’s a possibility for a recession but I’m still skeptical about a depression or worse. Only time will tell.

[sdcellar]

an– Didn’t say your parents were the only ones, just that they were the ones you were using in your example. I have no doubt thousands (10s, 100s?) of people have 18 year old mortgages. You just don’t know them personally.

I also question if all these people can pay it off so easily. If they can, then why don’t they? Also, don’t be surprised if at least one or two of those thousands have borrowed against their equity. I’m sure some have borrowed far more than the original loan amount. Not saying this is your folks, but you’re the one who mentioned all these other people.

Frankly, I forget why we’re talking about people who bought almost twenty years ago.

Oh yeah, because that proves that it can’t be a poor decision to buy right now.

Well, that’s just silly.

[an]

sdcellar, I don’t feel comfortable divulging much more financial detail than what I have. The ones that I mentioned not paying it off is because they feel they can invest that money and get better return than paying off the house. Then there are others who, although can’t pay off their loan at the time due to needing the cash to do other things, have mortgage payment in the 800/month range. That’s the kind of payment you’d be happy with in a 1 bedroom apartment, not a house.

[sdcellar]

Wasn’t asking you to. Just pointing out ways that your theory breaks down. And again, to my real point–me no care about 1989. I know plenty of people who bought in that timeframe who got trapped in a house they didn’t want and subsequently lost money on.

The point is, anything can happen. Doesn’t change the fact that, in general, now would be a bad time to buy (with the distinct potential of being a *really* bad time).

[bigtrouble]

1989 vs 2007

I’d take 1989…why?

Can’t refinance to a lower purchase price.

[an]

“The point is, anything can happen. Doesn’t change the fact that, in general, now would be a bad time to buy (with the distinct potential of being a *really* bad time).”

I agree. Which is why we’re here dissecting updated data. Again, as I mentioned in another thread, I only brought this up as an example to why it is not the end of the world if they bought, can manage the payment very comfortably, have a decently stable job, and live in it forever.

[Author]

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