Home Sales Rise, Factory Orders Up

[schizo2buyORnot]

What do these to hard “facts” mean???

Home Sales Rise . . .

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070824/economy.html?.v=18

San Diego Inventory of Home for Sale is down year over year . . . albeit slightly but the point is they have stopped rising.

http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/

Is it time to buy???

Signed, An impatient renter

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Is it time to buy???

Sure. Why not ? After all we are just now reaching the peak of loan resets. It’ll only be 4-6 months before the number of foreclosures peaks, and another 3 -6 months past that for theses things to sell on the market putting more downward pressure on prices. If you want to buy at least 10% above what you can pay next year at this time, I think it is a great time to buy.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Is it time to buy???

Sure. Why not ? After all we are just now reaching the peak of loan resets. It’ll only be 4-6 months before the number of foreclosures peaks, and another 3 -6 months past that for theses things to sell on the market putting more downward pressure on prices. If you want to buy at least 10% above what you can pay next year at this time, I think it is a great time to buy.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Is it time to buy???

Sure. Why not ? After all we are just now reaching the peak of loan resets. It’ll only be 4-6 months before the number of foreclosures peaks, and another 3 -6 months past that for theses things to sell on the market putting more downward pressure on prices. If you want to buy at least 10% above what you can pay next year at this time, I think it is a great time to buy.

[Ex-SD]

IMHO: It’s nowhere near the bottom yet. There’s way too much inventory and a lack of buyers at the present prices considering the new loan rules and rates. Then, we have the looming problem of ARM loans that will reset over the next couple of years and the impending foreclosures that will result from owners who won’t be able to make the new, higher payment. Be happy that you’re renting and not going to take a huge haircut. Give it at least two years (I’m guessing 3 1/2 to 4 years to hit the bottom).

Here’s some statistics:

Tracking San Diego County, California

Population 2006: 3.07 million
1/01/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:220
7/31/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:131
San Diego County
…………..Inventory (Sales)………………….(Sales)
01/2006: 16,161 (2,898)___01/2005: (3,324)
02/2006: 17,262 (3,035)___02/2005: (3,442)
03/2006: 18,261 (4,367)___03/2005: (5,018)
04/2006: 19,480 (3,974)___04/2005: (5,345)
05/2006: 21,175 (4,480)___05/2005: (5,141)
06/2006: 22,588 (4,533)___06/2005: (5,663)
07/2006: 23,385 (3,370)___07/2005: 14,176 (4,765)
08/2006: 23,381 (3,666)___08/2005: 15,240 (5,379)
09/2006: 22,710 (3,207)___09/2005: 16,081 (4,935)
10/2006: 21,692 (3,282)___10/2005: 16,490 (4,155)
11/2006: 19,831 (2,987)___11/2005: 16,072 (3,937)
12/2006: 17,223 (3,613)___12/2005: 14,591 (4,262)

Population 2007: 3.10 million
1/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:191
6/10/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:144

……….Inventory (Sales)…………………Inventory (Sales)
01/01: 16,260
01/31: 17,109 (2,772)___01/2006: 16,161 (2,898)
02/28: 17,544 (2,863)___02/2006: 17,262 (3,035)
03/31: 18,638 (3,218)___03/2006: 18,261 (4,367)
04/30: 20,122 (3,436)___04/2006: 19,480 (3,974)
05/31: 21,169 (3,385)___05/2006: 21,175 (4,480)
06/30: 22,268 (3,510)___06/2006: 22,588 (4,533)
07/31: 22,551
08/10: 22,636
08/20: 23,006

All-time Record high inventory: 23,385 homes, July 2006.
All-time low inventory: 2,301 homes, March 2004.
Previous Record high inventory: 19,250 homes, July 1995.
North County Times 4/12/06

Population 1995: 2.66 million
Listing per population ratio 7/1995: 1:138
Population adjusted record high inventory: 22,174 homes.

-ziprealty resale inventory includes SFR/Condo/MFR/Land Parcels
-(sales figure) includes new and resale homes from DataQuickNews

[Ex-SD]

IMHO: It’s nowhere near the bottom yet. There’s way too much inventory and a lack of buyers at the present prices considering the new loan rules and rates. Then, we have the looming problem of ARM loans that will reset over the next couple of years and the impending foreclosures that will result from owners who won’t be able to make the new, higher payment. Be happy that you’re renting and not going to take a huge haircut. Give it at least two years (I’m guessing 3 1/2 to 4 years to hit the bottom).

Here’s some statistics:

Tracking San Diego County, California

Population 2006: 3.07 million
1/01/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:220
7/31/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:131
San Diego County
…………..Inventory (Sales)………………….(Sales)
01/2006: 16,161 (2,898)___01/2005: (3,324)
02/2006: 17,262 (3,035)___02/2005: (3,442)
03/2006: 18,261 (4,367)___03/2005: (5,018)
04/2006: 19,480 (3,974)___04/2005: (5,345)
05/2006: 21,175 (4,480)___05/2005: (5,141)
06/2006: 22,588 (4,533)___06/2005: (5,663)
07/2006: 23,385 (3,370)___07/2005: 14,176 (4,765)
08/2006: 23,381 (3,666)___08/2005: 15,240 (5,379)
09/2006: 22,710 (3,207)___09/2005: 16,081 (4,935)
10/2006: 21,692 (3,282)___10/2005: 16,490 (4,155)
11/2006: 19,831 (2,987)___11/2005: 16,072 (3,937)
12/2006: 17,223 (3,613)___12/2005: 14,591 (4,262)

Population 2007: 3.10 million
1/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:191
6/10/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:144

……….Inventory (Sales)…………………Inventory (Sales)
01/01: 16,260
01/31: 17,109 (2,772)___01/2006: 16,161 (2,898)
02/28: 17,544 (2,863)___02/2006: 17,262 (3,035)
03/31: 18,638 (3,218)___03/2006: 18,261 (4,367)
04/30: 20,122 (3,436)___04/2006: 19,480 (3,974)
05/31: 21,169 (3,385)___05/2006: 21,175 (4,480)
06/30: 22,268 (3,510)___06/2006: 22,588 (4,533)
07/31: 22,551
08/10: 22,636
08/20: 23,006

All-time Record high inventory: 23,385 homes, July 2006.
All-time low inventory: 2,301 homes, March 2004.
Previous Record high inventory: 19,250 homes, July 1995.
North County Times 4/12/06

Population 1995: 2.66 million
Listing per population ratio 7/1995: 1:138
Population adjusted record high inventory: 22,174 homes.

-ziprealty resale inventory includes SFR/Condo/MFR/Land Parcels
-(sales figure) includes new and resale homes from DataQuickNews

[Ex-SD]

IMHO: It’s nowhere near the bottom yet. There’s way too much inventory and a lack of buyers at the present prices considering the new loan rules and rates. Then, we have the looming problem of ARM loans that will reset over the next couple of years and the impending foreclosures that will result from owners who won’t be able to make the new, higher payment. Be happy that you’re renting and not going to take a huge haircut. Give it at least two years (I’m guessing 3 1/2 to 4 years to hit the bottom).

Here’s some statistics:

Tracking San Diego County, California

Population 2006: 3.07 million
1/01/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:220
7/31/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:131
San Diego County
…………..Inventory (Sales)………………….(Sales)
01/2006: 16,161 (2,898)___01/2005: (3,324)
02/2006: 17,262 (3,035)___02/2005: (3,442)
03/2006: 18,261 (4,367)___03/2005: (5,018)
04/2006: 19,480 (3,974)___04/2005: (5,345)
05/2006: 21,175 (4,480)___05/2005: (5,141)
06/2006: 22,588 (4,533)___06/2005: (5,663)
07/2006: 23,385 (3,370)___07/2005: 14,176 (4,765)
08/2006: 23,381 (3,666)___08/2005: 15,240 (5,379)
09/2006: 22,710 (3,207)___09/2005: 16,081 (4,935)
10/2006: 21,692 (3,282)___10/2005: 16,490 (4,155)
11/2006: 19,831 (2,987)___11/2005: 16,072 (3,937)
12/2006: 17,223 (3,613)___12/2005: 14,591 (4,262)

Population 2007: 3.10 million
1/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:191
6/10/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:144

……….Inventory (Sales)…………………Inventory (Sales)
01/01: 16,260
01/31: 17,109 (2,772)___01/2006: 16,161 (2,898)
02/28: 17,544 (2,863)___02/2006: 17,262 (3,035)
03/31: 18,638 (3,218)___03/2006: 18,261 (4,367)
04/30: 20,122 (3,436)___04/2006: 19,480 (3,974)
05/31: 21,169 (3,385)___05/2006: 21,175 (4,480)
06/30: 22,268 (3,510)___06/2006: 22,588 (4,533)
07/31: 22,551
08/10: 22,636
08/20: 23,006

All-time Record high inventory: 23,385 homes, July 2006.
All-time low inventory: 2,301 homes, March 2004.
Previous Record high inventory: 19,250 homes, July 1995.
North County Times 4/12/06

Population 1995: 2.66 million
Listing per population ratio 7/1995: 1:138
Population adjusted record high inventory: 22,174 homes.

-ziprealty resale inventory includes SFR/Condo/MFR/Land Parcels
-(sales figure) includes new and resale homes from DataQuickNews

[LA_Renter]

“Is it time to buy???”

No!

New home sales had a slght uptick from June (a horrible month, they are still way down from last year which was a bad year). Inventories peaked this time last year in San Diego, this has been predicted by many on Piggington including the resident realtors.

The data that will be rolling in starting Sept will be of the most interest. We will begin to see the impact of the credit crunch then. This is a whole new ball game.

[LA_Renter]

“Is it time to buy???”

No!

New home sales had a slght uptick from June (a horrible month, they are still way down from last year which was a bad year). Inventories peaked this time last year in San Diego, this has been predicted by many on Piggington including the resident realtors.

The data that will be rolling in starting Sept will be of the most interest. We will begin to see the impact of the credit crunch then. This is a whole new ball game.

[LA_Renter]

“Is it time to buy???”

No!

New home sales had a slght uptick from June (a horrible month, they are still way down from last year which was a bad year). Inventories peaked this time last year in San Diego, this has been predicted by many on Piggington including the resident realtors.

The data that will be rolling in starting Sept will be of the most interest. We will begin to see the impact of the credit crunch then. This is a whole new ball game.

[temeculaguy]

It hopefully means the fed won’t be forced to de-value the dollar and holds the interest rate steady to combat inflation.

These were national numbers and read the fine print, sales were up compared to June but down 10% compared to July of 2006 (which was down from July of 2005). Median was up, average price down. What does it all mean? Nothing. To quote the great David Lereah’s book title “all real estate is local.”

July was also pre-credit crunch, pre-jumbo crunch. Things are changing so fast that the rear view mirror isn’t much help.

[temeculaguy]

It hopefully means the fed won’t be forced to de-value the dollar and holds the interest rate steady to combat inflation.

These were national numbers and read the fine print, sales were up compared to June but down 10% compared to July of 2006 (which was down from July of 2005). Median was up, average price down. What does it all mean? Nothing. To quote the great David Lereah’s book title “all real estate is local.”

July was also pre-credit crunch, pre-jumbo crunch. Things are changing so fast that the rear view mirror isn’t much help.

[temeculaguy]

It hopefully means the fed won’t be forced to de-value the dollar and holds the interest rate steady to combat inflation.

These were national numbers and read the fine print, sales were up compared to June but down 10% compared to July of 2006 (which was down from July of 2005). Median was up, average price down. What does it all mean? Nothing. To quote the great David Lereah’s book title “all real estate is local.”

July was also pre-credit crunch, pre-jumbo crunch. Things are changing so fast that the rear view mirror isn’t much help.

[one_muggle]

Yeah,
What they said.

If you read to the middle of the article:
Even with the overall increase in home sales for July, sales are down a deep 10.2 percent from a year ago, underscoring the toll of the housing slump.

A better headline would be:
Whoohoo! Sales Suck, but not as bad as last month!

I have to say that I did like that you put “facts” in quotes.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Yeah,
What they said.

If you read to the middle of the article:
Even with the overall increase in home sales for July, sales are down a deep 10.2 percent from a year ago, underscoring the toll of the housing slump.

A better headline would be:
Whoohoo! Sales Suck, but not as bad as last month!

I have to say that I did like that you put “facts” in quotes.

-one muggle

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