[JPJones]

[quote=deadzone]No surprise, now Google announcing return to the office. Obviously Google and Amazon are the leaders of the Tech industry, the rest of the industry is going to fall in line with them.

Sure there will be some niche workers who continue to remote work forever, and small companies like FLU’s where the logistically it makes more sense to remote work perhaps. But from macro scale, the reality is majority of workers are going to have to come in to the office, at least part time.[/quote]

This is the 3rd time Google has announced a return to the office in the past 10 months. I’m sure they mean it this time, though!

[JPJones]

[quote=EconProf][quote=svelte][quote=EconProf]
Up until the Chinese virus hit us, the economy was roaring ahead, clearly outpacing the GNP growth rates of the Obama
years.[/quote]

lol, so you choose to completely ignore the hard numbers I posted and resort to generalizations.

Here are the numbers from the US and IMF:
Obama
2009 – -2.54
2010 – 2.56
2011 – 1.55
2012 – 2.25
2013 – 1.84
2014 – 2.53
2015 – 2.91
2016 – 1.64

Trump
2017 – 2.37
2018 – 2.93
2019 – 2.33
2020 – -5.91

Obama averaged 1.311

Trump averaged 0.43

You chose to ignore that and instead posted a generalization and excused Trump’s performance. Funny you didn’t make any allowances for Obama’s.

I would submit that the first year of a president’s term was based on the prior president, so it would all be shifted a year which would give Obama 2.2 and Trump 1.02

Not exactly a stellar story!

And yes we can blame Trump for this year – his floundering on a pandemic response and outright lies land this firmly in his lap. You know, the buck stops here thing? Only Trump doesn’t take responsibility for anything. Unless it’s positive, then he’ll take credit whether he did it or not.[/quote]

Svelte,
It is interesting that you include 2020 in your numbers. What is Trump’s average if you took his first three years compared to Obama’s eight years?
Thanks for making my point.[/quote]

Trump had a much stronger influence on 2020 than Obama did on 2009. I’d argue further and say that the last year of a president’s term is the one he has the most impact on.

[JPJones]

[quote=svelte]If anything, he hurt his chances by trying to clamp down on voting. It convinced more folks to vote early. I know I’ve already submitted by ballot and so have a lot of my friends.[/quote]

Yup! The news made national headlines all summer. Now, nobody I know isn’t paranoid and taking extra precautions to make sure their vote gets counted. Apparently, blatant voter suppression pisses people off. Whodathunk?

[JPJones]

[quote=Escoguy]I know it’s anecdotal but hey.[/quote]

https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-updates/rinsing-your-sinuses-neti-pots-safe

Seems like a pretty decent risk vs reward if done properly. It’s good if you have allergy problems to begin with.

[JPJones]

[quote=sdrealtor]From what I heard there was a massive onslaught in early March. Not sure how long they took but it was a while. They couldn’t do on site appraisals for a while. Much better last couple months[/quote]

Ah, that might be it. Ours didn’t require an appraisal. The notary still had to come out, though. At any rate, ours is just 1 data point, so it might not have been the norm.

[JPJones]

[quote=TheBrianNarrative]Bumped into my mortgage guy today. He said expect a refi to take 3-4 months to close[/quote]

Maybe I’m missing context (didn’t read the whole 5 pages), but did this turn out to be true for anyone? Ours took about a month and closed 3 weeks ago. Forgive me if I’m missing something. I only check in here about once a month.

[JPJones]

[quote=FlyerInHi]You cannot blame any Democrat for Trump. Non-Trump voters are not responsible for Trump.[/quote]

The hell we aren’t. Did you have your head in the sand for the 2016 dem primaries? So many shenanigans my head was spinning. We shouldered half the blame for Trump winning. Sanders wouldn’t have won because his policy or politics were better. He would have won because Hillary supporters were generally mature enough to step up and vote for whoever won the nomination, regardless. The younger crowd Sanders had going for him, not so much.

As for a recession this year, the corona virus is the trigger without a doubt at this point, and you’d be very hard pressed to convince anyone anywhere that you saw that one coming when you posted this.

And dude:

[quote=FlyerInHi]All the signs point to a recession coming.
Since it takes 2 quarters of negative growth before a recession is declared, I’m thinking one will be announced sometimes in 2020. We will see….[/quote]

You didn’t even give a reason! “All the signs”? What signs? You didn’t stick your neck out. You casually glanced at the window and announced that it’s day time. A stronger argument would have been “well, it’s been more than 10 years since the last one, so we’re probably due.”

To Flu’s point, I’ve been a part timer on this site for a long time, and he’s right. Nothing you say here is important. It’s just another blog on the internet. It doesn’t take guts to make a prediction here. It just takes a keyboard.

[JPJones]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=flu]I’m not very religious…

But for argument’s sake…

What’s the difference between ridiculing people of Christian faith over a blog, hurling insults at such religion, and religious people, spitting and pissing on what probably matters a lot to them…versus hurling a bunch of stereotypes and a vulgarities about a say an Latino or African American or Muslim?

Is this sort of ridicule here on this thread *that* much different than Donald Trump’s ridicule and disdain for Muslims, or have we all sunken to an all time low across the board?[/quote]

Just read about flat-earth society and its celebrities. You mean I cannot ridicule them because it equals to racism?[/quote]
Yup. You’re basically Hitler at that point. Sorry!

[JPJones]

[quote=FlyerInHi]I’m all for drug legalization. Let people kill themselves if they want but they should be considerate of other people in the process.

Here’s what I observed in a condo complex.

Druggies always have domestic issues with noise and other unsavory guests coming around.

Marijuana smoke is really bad and seeps into wall cavities and into neighboring units, especially in old “shit hole” condo/apartment buildings. You have to seal all the electrical outlets in the “sender” and “receipient” units.

Potheads can smell pot a kilometer away and know exactly where to buy it. Within hours of moving into a unit, this dude knew which unit to buy his stuff. Security cameras don’t lie. And, no, they didn’t know each other ahead of time.

Pot makes people drowsy and not more productive. How are we supposed to compete with China in education and sheer hardwork?

Pot makes people paranoid and likely to believe conspiracy theories and fake news. I know of one real instance where a woman thinks “the powers that be” are persecuting her. No, she brings it onto herself by bringing men who cause commotion and smooch off of her.

I foresee the downfall of America. If we want to remain #1, we need to get our act together and study hard and work hard like they do in Singapore. Gettin’ fat and high ain’t gonna cut it.[/quote]

Nice satire! Can you do one on alcohol, too?

[JPJones]

Anyone giving odds on whether or not he gets re-elected in spite of the indictment?

[JPJones]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=Myriad] By your line of thinking, anyone should be able to build anything anywhere. I could just build a 30 story apartment complex next to a cottage home.
[/quote]

That would be wonderful. And the owner of the cottage home would enjoy an economic windfall. He might sell and retire.

And they did just that in Manhattan to get the best economic use of the land. And we are all the better for it.[/quote]
Speak for yourself. Manhattan is a terrible place to live unless you’re filthy rich.

[JPJones]

[quote=FlyerInHi]The ban is new law. Not enforcement of existing laws. Why not enforce existing nuisance laws?

Remenber, short term leases don’t cause problems. People cause problems.

I’m confident things with change with technology and acceptance by the younger generations. It could however take a long, long time.

Like I said before, if you want to close your neighborhood to ST renters, others will do the same to you. What if you want to spend some time at a nice home in Santa Barbara or the French wine country to relax for 3 weeks? That option could be closed off — net loss for humanity.[/quote]

It will take a long, long time. The younger generations are renters now, so this decision should in theory directly benefit them. And seriously, could you afford regular 3 week vacations in your 20s? What do you consider to be young?

[JPJones]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Originalists would disagree. Zoning is not in the Constitution and didn’t arise until the 20th century and didn’t become common place until after WWII. With current zoning we would not have Manhattan today. Individual property rights were once stronger than community benefits under the police power of the state which is what zoning is derived from. Read up and you will see.[/quote]
“Go look it up” is a terribly weak way to make a point. If you aren’t willing to present supporting information, then why bother?

[JPJones]

[quote=gzz]I find that 44% figure very hard to believe.

Just checked craigslist, and only 5 of the 31 MB listings were 12-month leases. And of course full-time AirBNBs would not be on craigslist.

To put it another way, do you know a single person who is a long-term full-time MB resident, either as an owner or a renter? I have never met such a person in many years in San Diego, and I live nearby in OB and am social. You’d probably have to go back to the 70s or 80s to find many such people.[/quote]

I wasn’t asking you to believe it. You’re presenting anecdotal data. 44% is a number that was at least vetted by a high profile local publication (UT). Which sounds more reliable to you: that or a number posted as a guess in the comments section of a blog? Have you forgotten the mantra of this site?

“In God We Trust,
Everyone Else Bring Data.”

Edit: To be clear, I haven’t presented an opinion one way or another on this topic. I was simply questioning your estimate.

[JPJones]

[quote=gzz]From what I can tell, 80% of MB is either year round short term rentals or summer short term + 9 month student rentals.[/quote]

MB is 44% according to a UT article published when the vote went through on the 16th. I’m curious as to what percentage of those owners are local voters. It can’t be high, or there’s no way that many of our local politicians would have voted through even tighter restrictions than what the mayor proposed.

[Author]

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