[JPJones]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita][quote=JPJones]Well, there it is:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-musk-says-tesla-needs-cut-staff-by-10-pauses-all-hiring-2022-06-03/

Word is he walked back his full-time-in-the-office ultimatum, too, to just 2-3 days a week with first-come-first-served seating. This guy is scumbag, not a leader.[/quote]

Forcing people back to the office is going to work only

(1)for employees that want to come back to the office
and hate working at home all the time, like me

Or

(2)for employees that are unemployable elsewhere and who do not have enough fuck you money yet and still need a job to pay for basic rent and living expenses.[/quote]

I think you greatly over-exaggerate how many people have “Fuck You money”. Fact is there will be industry wide layoffs this year, a lot of folks who were previously making big salaries will be on unemployment. That is not good for housing market.[/quote]

Yes, and most of us here have acknowledged that. New employment numbers came out this morning. TL;DR: unemployment is down and job openings are still at record highs, including in tech. We’ll see if the current round of layoffs puts a dent in those numbers.

[JPJones]

[quote=an][quote=JPJones]Well, there it is:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-musk-says-tesla-needs-cut-staff-by-10-pauses-all-hiring-2022-06-03/

Word is he walked back his full-time-in-the-office ultimatum, too, to just 2-3 days a week with first-come-first-served seating. This guy is scumbag, not a leader.[/quote]
Not surprised at all to anyone who actually know about the tech job market and have a pulse in tech employee satisfaction.[/quote]

Yup! I was just following up on my previous comment where I said as much.

[JPJones]

Well, there it is:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-musk-says-tesla-needs-cut-staff-by-10-pauses-all-hiring-2022-06-03/

Word is he walked back his full-time-in-the-office ultimatum, too, to just 2-3 days a week with first-come-first-served seating. This guy is scumbag, not a leader.

[JPJones]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=XBoxBoy]And today’s news is this great quote of Elon Musk to Tesla employees:

[quote=Elon Musk]
“Anyone who wishes to do remote work must be in the office for a minimum (and I mean *minimum*) of 40 hours per week or depart Tesla. This is less than we ask of factory workers,”[/quote]

We’ll see how well this flies with his employees. But what’s interesting to me is that his argument is that this is less than we ask of factory workers. I mean, we’ve all known Elon is an arrogant SOB, but to put it out there so blatently? I guess that’s why he’s a multi-billionaire and I’m not.[/quote]
Interesting, we’ll see how his people respond.[/quote]

And as I’ve said throughout this thread, a lot of companies are going to be laying out the ultimatum to return to work in the very near future. Nice that Elon took the leadership role on this.[/quote]

He’s addressing a large percentage of employees that don’t physically have desks to show up to, and a lot of that is IT staff that he can’t afford to lose and expect to keep the doors open. The statement will either get walked back like all the others or he’s trying to mask layoffs. As with most of his ridiculous tweets, he has no idea what he’s saying. He’s an eccentric, but not a leader.

[JPJones]

[quote=deadzone]You sound like just another butt hurt investor getting your ass handed to you in the markets right now.[/quote]

If I listened to your advice, that’s where I’d be. I already said I don’t gamble. Hell, I don’t even disagree with everything you’ve said. I think we’re already in a recession. I think the data from the blog charts with a few external data sources already points to a bubble burst in the near term. You see how sdrealtor is starting to change his rhetoric to indicate the market is cooling? He’s the biggest RE bull on this forum, so that change is significant.

[quote=deadzone]The entire Tech industry is dying. Massive layoffs are right around the corner.[/quote]

These are the type of statements that lose me entirely. You’ve already shown that you have no clue as to what’s going on in the tech industry outside of what you read in financial publications. Yeah, there will be layoffs. They’re already starting, but companies are so starved for qualified staff that I’m not sure those layoffs will do much more than balance out the employment market. Only time will tell, but like I said, I don’t gamble. All of my positions are long such that even The Great Recession was just a blip on the radar.

[quote=deadzone]Are you not paying attention?[/quote]

Are you? Our family bought our house at the bottom after the last bubble burst thanks to this blog. I don’t take this place for granted, and neither should you. Yet here you are taking swings at our regular contributors like you are one of them.

[JPJones]

Gotta keep movin’ them goalposts!

And let’s be real here. Even if he could monetize his posts, he wouldn’t pull the trigger on that, either.

[JPJones]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=sdrealtor]Rich, you really need to get out more.[/quote]

Well, you nailed that one.[/quote]

Even a blind squirrel…

[JPJones]

[quote=svelte][img_assist|nid=27641|title=Are You Coming To Bed|desc=|link=node|align=center|width=291|height=320][/quote]
Easiest way to get the right answer is posting the wrong one on the internet.

[JPJones]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=XBoxBoy][quote=JPJones]How does someone with a 16 year old account here (DZ) not own a house in San Diego yet?[/quote]

I think it’s way easier than you might think. It’s emotionally very tough to buy when the market is down. You are always second guessing yourself because it might go lower. Then when it starts to rise, you tell yourself to be patient, it will go back down again. Personally, I’m not sure I would have bought in 2009 if it hadn’t been for my wife who really wanted to own a house.

The stock market is the same way for me, and because of the difficulty of catching the bottom, I’m a buy and hold stock player. Unlike a lot of people on this blog, I pretty much never sell, I just hold broad market ETFs.[/quote]

Well congrats to you and the wife. Around here anytime you can buy when its at or about equivalent rent its is pretty much no lose on a long term hold house. Its funny that someone who criticizes us and other for being home investors didnt buy when it made sense as an owner occupant like we all did. If he didnt view it as an investment he couldnt have helped but buy and that is perhaps the greatest irony.

I think more of us are buy and hold stock players here than you think also. Sure I have my play money but 80% is in a ML account that pretty much never sell and if I do its based upon an annual review and tax loss selling or reallocation when overweight on a stock/sector after meeting with my long time broker team there. I can go years without making trades there[/quote]

Even if you tune out the discussions, the data being posted on the blog alone was enough to know roughly when it was safe to buy, and that window spanned over a decade. Being a pessimist is one thing. This sounds more like they just completely gave up on the market and want to see it fail.

Likewise on the buy-and-hold. I see the stock market as gambling, and I’m not a good gambler. All the stock we own is in retirement accounts that we never touch and our house. I do enjoy watching it and our Piggs’ predictions here, though.

[JPJones]

Thanks guys! These are some great takes and I appreciate the time. We’ve heard ‘stagflation’ kicked around and know happened in the ’70s. I don’t have a good understand of what it looks like, but I wonder if that’s what we’re already seeing. I took a trip to a couple Targets and a BestBuy yesterday with my kid and was shocked at how empty the shelves were outside of the food isles. Add to that, we bought a car in this earlier this year. We started shopping last October and couldn’t get the exact one we wanted until the end of March, which we only got because we gave up on an important feature.

[JPJones]

/popcorn

Seriously never thought a housing blog could be this entertaining! How does someone with a 16 year old account here (DZ) not own a house in San Diego yet? And sdr a real estate hack? LOL man! This thread has become my weekly soaps. Keep’em comin’!

[JPJones]

[quote=sdrealtor]Didn’t someone predict this here two months ago? I wonder who?

Adjustable-rate mortgage demand doubles
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/adjustable-rate-mortgage-demand-doubles-as-interest-rates-hit-the-highest-since-2009.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Message

It’s only just the beginning! Bring on the adjustables![/quote]
Damn…I didn’t think you’d be wrong, but I didn’t want you to be right.

“Oh no, not again.”

[JPJones]

[quote=deadzone][quote=spdrun]Average 30-yr was below 3% about 6 months ago. Now, it’s what, 4.25%? And the hikes are just beginning.[/quote]

Actually 4.68% today. But who’s counting? Apparently interest rates don’t impact the local housing market according to the “Professionals” on this board.[/quote]

What are your credentials? What is your source on that 4.68% number?

[JPJones]

[quote=Coronita]And how would this help put more supply on the market if people are taxed high to sell early, lol.[/quote]

This is about demand more than supply. Investment money tied up for longer means less buyers overall competing for the same properties.

[JPJones]

[quote=gzz]Wow, I was at least thinking of selling. But the tax on 3m of capital gains would be a million! No way Uncle Sam, I think I will hold until I die now, and gzz jr can enjoy a stepped up basis and sell then.

I kind of naively assumed it would be like 15% federal and the state would just be a bit more.

It is 23.8% federal and 13.3% state![/quote]

Oh no! You’ll only get to keep 2 million! Are we supposed to feel sorry for you? That is not a bad problem to have.

[Author]

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