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October 10, 2022 at 11:38 PM in reply to: You folks that took out 30 year loans / refinances at 3% or lower…you’re banking now. #826803
JPJonesParticipant[quote=svelte][quote=scaredyclassic]So if you have no extra monies and refinance, I agree, it’s all gravy. But if you have a 500k mortgage and much more than that in monies to possibly pay it off, and you refi, you are gambling you can do better than the interest rate you’re paying, after tax.
Gambling. Yep. Not a bad bet, but gambling.[/quote]
Agreed.
I can see both sides of the coin – nobody’s going to get severely burned whether they cash-out refied at a low rate and put that into CDs, or whether they paid off their mortgage and kept expenses low. Both are reasonable courses of action.
And neither course is going to have a major impact on finances. One isn’t drastically better than the other.
But I tend to think that folks who see a big pile of money in their accounts will think they can spend more. So there is a chance that it will get frittered away and the financial advantage (if interest rates continue to rise and there becomes a financial advantage – I don’t believe the numbers work at the moment) would disappear if that happened.[/quote]
Yup! Money burnin’ a hole in my pocket and all that.
October 8, 2022 at 10:51 AM in reply to: Krugman: interest rates would return to virtually nothing once the inflation fight is over #826802JPJonesParticipant[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO FED moving way too fast, once this starts going south it’s going to snowball in a hurry.
Anyway just my opinion[/quote]
With you here. Unemployment in September somehow dropped again from 3.7% to 3.5%, which means we’ll probably get another .75% rate increase in November. It might just be my inexperience talking, but it feels like our bike has the speed wobbles and we’re about to eat shit hard.
October 6, 2022 at 11:40 PM in reply to: You folks that took out 30 year loans / refinances at 3% or lower…you’re banking now. #826792JPJonesParticipant[quote=an]Or, what about people who were at 4-5% and refi to lock in at <3%? Take all the $ they save and buy a 5years CD today?[/quote]
This was the biggie for our household. For us, it's not about leveraging equity for the greatest financial gain, but rather reducing our monthly overhead as near to zero as we can manage without taking any real financial risks. I know there are faster, more effective ways to get there, but I've never liked this culture of debt the royal we seems so attached to. I think that part of our culture is why our economy seems to go sideways with the slightest imbalance, so I avoid it as much as I can manage.
JPJonesParticipant[quote=The-Shoveler]Now All Restaurants are Taco Bell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFiDoOgRTpk%5B/quote%5D
unintelligible grunting
JPJonesParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=JPJones][quote=scaredyclassic]Wow. It’s fun.
I think I’m gonna get some skates and skate all the time.[/quote]
Heck yeah! Start doing squats and get a bosu ball to work on ankle strength when you’re home daydreaming about a good skate while all the rinks are closed. Ice skating is my zen thing, but knees and hips are prone to injury without at least a little conditioning.[/quote]going round and round in circles, hour after hour, till midnight, music on, people weaving in and out, felt like I was in an altered state.[/quote]
And it’s low impact to boot! Great for the core and the spirit! It’s the perfect exercise.JPJonesParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic]Wow. It’s fun.
I think I’m gonna get some skates and skate all the time.[/quote]
Heck yeah! Start doing squats and get a bosu ball to work on ankle strength when you’re home daydreaming about a good skate while all the rinks are closed. Ice skating is my zen thing, but knees and hips are prone to injury without at least a little conditioning.JPJonesParticipantOld man yells at luxury condos.
JPJonesParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]I don’t see how it could be as bad and yes definitely qualifiers as this is a very different situation. Even people buying at what feels like the top of the market put a lot of money down and financed with fully qualified record low interest rates in nearly every case. That is 180° different than last time. The only way we can really crash here is with non-discretionary sellers. The presence of what I just laid out greatly diminishes the amount of those potentially in that category. At this point even in the case of a prolong economic downturn it’s tough to predict how things would roll out here[/quote]
How long until those with locked in record low rates run out? Mid June, roughly? That’s what I’m waiting to see. End of July is the next marker I’m watching for after that.
JPJonesParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]LOL not even close yet. If you ask some newer realtors they may feel that way. They have seen nothing but boom times for the last decade. Having done this for 20+ years I know what normal markets look/feel like. We are far from going off a cliff so far[/quote]
Love the qualifiers! (Yet, so far)I’m not cheering for a crash, just preparing for one knowing the fallout from the last one. I just hope we learned some lessons and it isn’t as bad.
JPJonesParticipant[quote=deadzone][quote=Rich Toscano][quote=deadzone]That’s literally gambling.[/quote]
You are “literally” indistinguishable from a parody account.[/quote]
Whatever you say. Apparently I’m the only one left on this worthless blog who believes were are in an epic bubble. [/quote]
Man, it’s like you don’t actually read what people here write and are just here to pick fights.
JPJonesParticipant[quote=Coronita][quote=flyer]And, not just “rich people,” dz. We also know a lot of people who, although they were not really in an optimum position to do so during The Great Recession, bet there would be a rebound, so they gathered all of the resources they had, and also invested. Of course, things could have gone either way, but, in retrospect, they are very glad they did.[/quote]
Yes, you see, flyer is basically saying the Great Recession was an opportunity of a lifetime….We aren’t the only one saying it dz….[/quote]
So if the housing market does crash again and dz acts on it by buying a house or two, would that count as his redemption arc?
JPJonesParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]Balance starting to shift a little to buyers finally. This is when market starts to slow down as focus shifts to Summer vacation. Its also when late sellers hit the market. Typically inventory rises through June and July peaking sometime in August before dropping the rest of the year.
New listings 13 (7) – highest count in last 18 months but not by much. Nice to see more come on
New Pendings of 12 (12) – this was the biggest pending week of the year as it should be with more inventory
Closed sales at 6 (8) –
Inventory at 27 with median of 1.1M. Last year it was 14 with median of 825K.
Inventory has been building here with a little more coming on the market than usual but new pendings are hitting highs for the year as buyers finally have choices. A couple weeks back I said we should hit 30 and we are getting close. When/If we pass 40 it should benefit buyers. However its hard to say how long that will last unless we see a flood of new inventory. If it continues on this path its what a soft landing should look like.[/quote]
Straight off a cliff, I say!
JPJonesParticipant[quote=deadzone]I don’t have time to go through your entire dissertation on this subject, but once again it looks like you are drunk and typing random keys on your computer.
Just look at yourself in the mirror, how much of your net worth (i.e. Wealth) is tied up in RE and Stocks? Almost all of it I will go out on a limb? That would explain why you are so defensive whenever anyone brings up the topic of RE or stock market crashing.[/quote]
How have you not been shown the door yet?
JPJonesParticipant[quote=an][quote=JPJones][quote=an][quote=JPJones]Well, there it is:
Word is he walked back his full-time-in-the-office ultimatum, too, to just 2-3 days a week with first-come-first-served seating. This guy is scumbag, not a leader.[/quote]
Not surprised at all to anyone who actually know about the tech job market and have a pulse in tech employee satisfaction.[/quote]Yup! I was just following up on my previous comment where I said as much.[/quote]I 100% agree. Musk can flex his muscle all he wants, but the power right now is in the employee’s hands. He just have to hope that his engineers wants to come into the office.[/quote]
Yeah, and I know you guys prefer hard data, but another rumor is that roughly half of his devops team don’t have desks to sit at or parking. Add to that how most of the new hires over the past 2 years don’t live near a Tesla office and Musk just ends up looking like an out of touch clown.
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