Mira Mesa Monitor

[sdrealtor]

[quote=an]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7833-Backer-Rd-92126/home/4857038?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant

Pending after 6 days. Same house probably would go for about 850-900k last year and about 575k 5 years ago.[/quote]

We are by no means done and nowhere close to any downturn. With higher inventory MM should churn out 10+ pendings a week as it has picked up the pace to.

No surprise this went fast and for top dollar. Truly one of the really nice spots in MM as you well know. As a market watcher where you want to look for the first signs of slowing down are less desireable lots/locations. Thats where it will show up first. They will still sell but the market will differentiate on price more as a frenzy slows.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=an]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7833-Backer-Rd-92126/home/4857038?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant

Pending after 6 days. Same house probably would go for about 850-900k last year and about 575k 5 years ago.[/quote]

We are by no means done and nowhere close to any downturn. With higher inventory MM should churn out 10+ pendings a week as it has picked up the pace to.

No surprise this went fast and for top dollar. Truly one of the really nice spots in MM as you well know. As a market watcher where you want to look for the first signs of slowing down are less desireable lots/locations. Thats where it will show up first. They will still sell but the market will differentiate on price more as a frenzy slows.[/quote]
100% agree. I just wish deadzone is correct about RE crashing in the next year. Would love to pick something like this up for pre-pandemic price. I would guess something like this would go for ~$750k.

[limkotir]

Nice property and location. Would go for list price + some more.

Does a sunroom require permit?

Having looked at some MM houses, it seems like there have been quite a bit of non-permitted work done to the non-HOA in many 1970s SFH by prior owners.

What is the corrective action or treatment by the County on a property that added on 250 sq feet of unpermitted living space? Or because of the hot market of 2020-22, sellers are making buyers take off all non-contingencies.

[sdrealtor]

Some have been permited and others not. Id say it would be rare for it to be an issue with city/county. They have bigger things to be concerned with. As a buyer your main concern is it built in a workmanlike manner professionally? Its pretty much always been this way hot market or not

[sdrealtor]

SEttling into balance continues.

New listings 7 (10) – would like to see closer to 10+

New Pendings of 11 (124) – lots more choices and as expected an uptick this week

Closed sales at 5 (6) –

Inventory at 19 with median of 999K. Last year it was 11 with median of 849K.

We saw the double digit pendings I set as benchmark we should see indicating market still strong. Inventory up over last year but same as last week/around where it sat most of last Summer. Whats on the market is either just listed or a tad too high and sitting.

The market looks like it should chug along here like this for another month or two. Once we get to late June I expect things to slow down more. For now the crazy bidding wars are over. Houses sell at or around asking in most cases as long as priced at recent comparable sales. It feels like a nice stable market here for now.

[sdrealtor]

MM is holding up well. In general listings and supply are not increasing much but demand is slowing. Its more pronounced elsewhere than here at least for now

New listings 2 (6) – the lack of supply should keep this market stronger than some others

New Pendings of 8 (12) – demand is falling but just not much supply

Closed sales at 5 (14) –

Inventory at 14 with median of 1.057M. Last year it was 9 with median of 859K.

As I thought market is chugging along and will continue to do unless new listings spike up dramatically. We didnt get double digit pendings but inventory is down a good amount week over week because we only got 2 new listings. Market here feels like it is settling into more balance. This is what a soft landing could look like

[sdrealtor]

MM is settling into balance thus far. Under $1M generally stronger than over as it should be.

New listings 9 (10) – more inventory this week but not a ton

New Pendings of 7 (5) – pretty steady

Closed sales at 5 (9) –

Inventory at 20 with median of 1.1M. Last year it was 17 with median of 860K.

Looking back at May we had slightly more pendings than new listings. Last year we had slightly more new lsitings than pendings. Inventory finally hit 20 and should stay between 20 and 30 through September before falling into year end if typical seasonal patterns hold.

With 20 homes on the market, buyers can go out and look at a bunch each weekend. We are starting to have more balance in the market.

As I mentioned a month ago it should and has started building into the 20’s and should reach 30. Hard to say which way things go from here but for now its a better market for buyers than its been all year. I still think we’ll know we are shifting towards a buyers market when/if inventory gets well above 30. Until then we are pretty well balanced

[sdrealtor]

MM still in balance thus far.

New listings 8 (10) –

New Pendings of 11 (15) – this was one of the biggest pending weeks of the last year and it is again this year

Closed sales at 10 (3) –

Inventory at 22 with median of 1.085M. Last year it was 16 with median of 885K.

Market seems well balanced. Some optimitic sellers still out there overpriced but also some doing a good job adjusting until they find market level. Overall this feels like a market that is not going much down or up. Nice and steady

[Escoguy]

Appreciate these updates, I gave a ride to a Google employee who works at the facility off MM. She mentioned they are expanding.

There are quite a few Apple employees in my building in UTC so hard to see MM area softening any time soon.

Nice and steady is good.

[sdrealtor]

Balance starting to shift a little to buyers finally. This is when market starts to slow down as focus shifts to Summer vacation. Its also when late sellers hit the market. Typically inventory rises through June and July peaking sometime in August before dropping the rest of the year.

New listings 13 (7) – highest count in last 18 months but not by much. Nice to see more come on

New Pendings of 12 (12) – this was the biggest pending week of the year as it should be with more inventory

Closed sales at 6 (8) –

Inventory at 27 with median of 1.1M. Last year it was 14 with median of 825K.

Inventory has been building here with a little more coming on the market than usual but new pendings are hitting highs for the year as buyers finally have choices. A couple weeks back I said we should hit 30 and we are getting close. When/If we pass 40 it should benefit buyers. However its hard to say how long that will last unless we see a flood of new inventory. If it continues on this path its what a soft landing should look like.

[JPJones]

[quote=sdrealtor]Balance starting to shift a little to buyers finally. This is when market starts to slow down as focus shifts to Summer vacation. Its also when late sellers hit the market. Typically inventory rises through June and July peaking sometime in August before dropping the rest of the year.

New listings 13 (7) – highest count in last 18 months but not by much. Nice to see more come on

New Pendings of 12 (12) – this was the biggest pending week of the year as it should be with more inventory

Closed sales at 6 (8) –

Inventory at 27 with median of 1.1M. Last year it was 14 with median of 825K.

Inventory has been building here with a little more coming on the market than usual but new pendings are hitting highs for the year as buyers finally have choices. A couple weeks back I said we should hit 30 and we are getting close. When/If we pass 40 it should benefit buyers. However its hard to say how long that will last unless we see a flood of new inventory. If it continues on this path its what a soft landing should look like.[/quote]

Straight off a cliff, I say!

[sdrealtor]

LOL not even close yet. If you ask some newer realtors they may feel that way. They have seen nothing but boom times for the last decade. Having done this for 20+ years I know what normal markets look/feel like. We are far from going off a cliff so far

[JPJones]

[quote=sdrealtor]LOL not even close yet. If you ask some newer realtors they may feel that way. They have seen nothing but boom times for the last decade. Having done this for 20+ years I know what normal markets look/feel like. We are far from going off a cliff so far[/quote]
Love the qualifiers! (Yet, so far)

I’m not cheering for a crash, just preparing for one knowing the fallout from the last one. I just hope we learned some lessons and it isn’t as bad.

[sdrealtor]

I don’t see how it could be as bad and yes definitely qualifiers as this is a very different situation. Even people buying at what feels like the top of the market put a lot of money down and financed with fully qualified record low interest rates in nearly every case. That is 180° different than last time. The only way we can really crash here is with non-discretionary sellers. The presence of what I just laid out greatly diminishes the amount of those potentially in that category. At this point even in the case of a prolong economic downturn it’s tough to predict how things would roll out here

[JPJones]

[quote=sdrealtor]I don’t see how it could be as bad and yes definitely qualifiers as this is a very different situation. Even people buying at what feels like the top of the market put a lot of money down and financed with fully qualified record low interest rates in nearly every case. That is 180° different than last time. The only way we can really crash here is with non-discretionary sellers. The presence of what I just laid out greatly diminishes the amount of those potentially in that category. At this point even in the case of a prolong economic downturn it’s tough to predict how things would roll out here[/quote]

How long until those with locked in record low rates run out? Mid June, roughly? That’s what I’m waiting to see. End of July is the next marker I’m watching for after that.

[Author]

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