Mira Mesa Monitor

[sdrealtor]

Those locked into low rates have been gone for a solid month. Don’t forget we still have the transition to 5/7/10-1 arms. Sales will go down the unknown is much inventory do we get and how motivated are sellers. We should see some price erosion through year end but nothing major. Then we hit Spring again. It’s at least a year until we could see bigger changes. Between them and now who knows what else can change?

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Those locked into low rates have been gone for a solid month. Don’t forget we still have the transition to 5/7/10-1 arms. Sales will go down the unknown is much inventory do we get and how motivated are sellers. We should see some price erosion through year end but nothing major. Then we hit Spring again. It’s at least a year until we could see bigger changes. Between them and now who knows what else can change?[/quote]
It’ll be interesting to see how this play out. How sticky will the price be…

[sdrealtor]

So this was a week last year that I was away and missed so no year over year figures.

Market continues to shift into balance. Last week I mentioned this was when things start to slow down each year. This year was no exception but there is something more going on. In a typical year demand slows but supply does not yet. This year both did quite a bit.

New listings 5

New Pendings of 5

Closed sales at 7

Inventory at 27 with median of 1.083M.

This looks like it could be the beginning of a market shifting into stagnancy. The mainstream media is starting to write about this also. Demand is falling rapidly but new supply is also. We could settle in to a narrow range where volume is very low without much movement on pricing unless supply starts spiking.

https://money.yahoo.com/housing-market-hibernation-191801666.html

One thing to look for with low demand is the departure of many of my colleagues over the next couple years. Less volume, less paychecks for agents. This could and should happen regardless of what happens with pricing.

Today we saw two of the poster child brokerages for living off of public market money (Redfin and Compass) announce significant layoffs. Pricing of homes is not particuarly relevant to them. Sales volume is relevant to them and thats falling quickly.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/real-estate-firms-compass-and-redfin-announce-layoffs-as-housing-market-slows.html

Will be interesting to watch this all and I’ll be in my front row seat throw it all. Im built for this and not going anywhere

[sdrealtor]

I owe you all an update. Back to year over year comps too

New listings 7 (9)

New Pendings of 6 (11)

Closed sales at 5 (7)

Inventory at 29 (18) with median of 1.08M (825K).

Once again a solid market. The massive overbidding is past and overpricing without adjusting will leave you sitting. However at the end of the day about 1 house is going in escrow everyday and we’ve got 29 on the market which is about a month inventory. Its still tilted toward sellers despite some softness in pricing

[sdrealtor]

I think we can say we are now pretty much a balanced market despite inventory still being under 1 1/2 months.

New listings 9 (7)

New Pendings of 3 (6)

Closed sales at 9 (15)

Inventory at 34 (20) with median of 1.025M (850K)

A relatively slow week but it was last year also. Inventory continues to build and there are now a handful on the market in the 800’s. Inventory will keep building the next few weeks. If you’re a buyer keep watching this thread to follow direction of the market and think in terms of being ready come mid/late October pending conditions following the current trend.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 9 (9)

New Pendings of 9 (9)

Closed sales at 5 (4)

Inventory at 37 (23) with median of 1.04M (850K)

Inventory continues creeping up slowly. Buyers have choices now but most inventory still 900K+. Much of the comps were achieved starting low and letting market bid up prices but with slower pace the sellers are looking at comps and trying to draw a line in the sand. Thats contributing to rise in inventory.

Inventory is a little higher than I would have guessed it would reach a month or two ago but not excessive by any means. I figured we would peak around this level but I think we will see a bit more growth now. With that said we should be close to peak inventory here and would expect it to level and then start dropping again by Summers end. For now market still mostly in balance

[sdrealtor]

New listings 10 (10)

New Pendings of 4 (8)

Closed sales at 7 (11)

Inventory at 44 (25) with median of 997K (855K)

Inventory still climbing but if past patterns hold should peak soon. Sellers starting to adjust to new market reality but most are still holding the line for now. There are 15 houses under 900K now with most in the 800’s but a few under. Looking at last 4 weeks pending counts vs inventory we are up to 2 months here. Buyers seem to have slight advantage now

[an]

Fingers cross that we’ll see some good deal in 5 months, in the midst of winter.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 (7)

New Pendings of 12 (18)

Closed sales at 5 (6)

Inventory at 37 (16) with median of 975K (850K)

Well that didnt last long and the seasonal pattern came rolling in. This was a big week for pendings v new listings last year also. Inventory dropped almost 20% in a week and inventory is back well under 1.5 months. We may have hit peak inventory for the year last week. But lets see what comes our way the next two weeks before calling that. Another week or two like this and we are on our way to a soft landing..

One thing of note is the fixers arent getting swooped up by flippers immediately creating opportunities for homeowner buyers looking for them. Thats a positive developement

[sdrealtor]

most new listings get entered wednesday through friday, so far 3 this week.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 7 (10)

New Pendings of 2 (9)

Closed sales at 2 (8)

Inventory at 40 (120) with median of 937K (868K)

Inventory creeped back up a bit but still under high of the year (44). Observed a couple interesting things. There were 3 more pendings that quickly fell out out. The other thing Im seeing is the median is being pulled down by a bunch of fixers that 6 months ago wouldve been snapped up by flippers. I noted last week that fixers were starting to sit which I think is positive for entry level buyers looking to get in. We just need those prices to make sense for them. Looks like most of the flippers got their flips sold also

[an]

Unfortunately, at the current interest rate, price would have to drop dramatically from here for it to make sense (comparable to late 2021 PITI level).

[sdrealtor]

New listings 7 (11)

New Pendings of 7 (12)

Closed sales at 6 (8)

Inventory at 41 (18) with median of 979K (875K)

Looking back inventory here has been more or less flat for 4 weeks.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 7 (8)

New Pendings of 10 (9)

Closed sales at 4 (9)

Inventory at 38 (20) with median of 985K (875K)

Looking back inventory here has been more or less flat for 5 weeks.
pendings. This year 32 new listings and 27 pendings this july. Last year there were 36 new listings and 29 pendings this july

[sdrealtor]

Catching up on what I didnt have time to post Tuesday

New listings 7 (10)

New Pendings of 11 (9)

Closed sales at 11 (13)

Inventory at 32 (22)

Again no surge in new inventory and pendings have been up the last 2 weeks. With better pricing it looks like some buyers are coming back. Inventory dipped the last week and is now about 25% below July peak inventory level. Also gap between last year and this year inventory seems to be narrowing.

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