Back to the Office for Tech Workers

[admin]

Covid is over now for all intents and purposes. Amazon announced return to the office (3 days a week) and no longer requiring vaccine.

You knew this was coming, other large tech companies will follow suite. This change in addition to tech stocks getting absolutely hammered in the stock market this year will pretty much put an end to the “Bay area tech worker moving to ___ for remote work”.

Just another ominous sign for the housing market along with rapidly rising interest rates. Anybody flipping houses now is going to get rammed hard. I think Zillow was wise to get out of that business when they did.

[sdrealtor]

Bookmarked

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]Bookmarked[/quote]

I know why. lol…

I had an interview for this one company. Manager relocated to Mammoth Lakes. Senior Director was out of Covina. VP was out of Seattle. They didn’t seem to care where the Mobile Director lived.

[The-Shoveler]

Back to the Office?

Not so much for my company so far.

IMO 5 days a week in Office is dead for most tech workers, maybe 2-3 days we will see, not sure that would really move the needle as far as SD RE, if they really wanted I am sure most could find work locally.

[The-Shoveler]

dup

[Coronita]

But you aren’t a tech worker deadzone. How would you know what the prevailing pulse of this situation is???

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]But you aren’t a tech worker deadzone. How would you know what the prevailing pulse of this situation is???[/quote]

All the big silicon valley companies such as Amazon, Google, etc. were originally planning to bring back their folks to the office 3 days/week back in January. That got delayed due to Omicron. Now that Covid is finished they are going to be resuming these plans soon.

Bottom line the majority of tech workers, or white collar workers in general, are not going to be able to work fully remote forever. They hybrid/flex schedule will hopefully stay for long term but the number of people working fully remote from home will be drastically going down from here on out, not increasing.

[Anonymous]

Oh and this is all publicly announced information. Don’t have to work in SV to have the “pulse”. The Jan 10th original return to work 3 days/week was fairly universal in and outside of silicon valley.

[sdrealtor]

Had coffee today with a QCOM friend. April 1st they want them back two days. He’s contemplating whether he’ll agree. Key member of his team moved up north and another to North Carolina. Neither are coming back to office

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]Had coffee today with a QCOM friend. April 1st they want them back two days. He’s contemplating whether he’ll agree. Key member of his team moved up north and another to North Carolina. Neither are coming back to office[/quote]

It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. How many folks, in the long run, from qcomm for example, will be allowed to work fully remote permanently. Or if corporate doesn’t budge, how many will actually follow through with their threats to quit. I think Qcomm is a good barometer for the overall industry so will be good to follow up on this.

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]Had coffee today with a QCOM friend. April 1st they want them back two days. He’s contemplating whether he’ll agree. Key member of his team moved up north and another to North Carolina. Neither are coming back to office[/quote]

Well anecdotal story… I have a friend who works at a small biotech company. She’s on the administrative staff and they and support were all told to go back to the office starting next week…

However all the scientists and researchers…They are allowed to work remotely indefinitely.

Now this might seem a bit unfair, because it is. But you know why the company did this, right?

The company views the administrative staff as easily replaceable so they get treated like crap. And their philosophy is well if you quit go ahead we’ll just find a replacement.

However, when it comes to the scientist and engineers. It seems like they don’t want to fvck with them, because I guess if they said the same thing, the scientist and engineers would just walk across the street to a competitor.

Go figure.

[Anonymous]

Okay so we’ll see about the remote work/back to work debate as the year progresses. Just pointing out that a lot of big, important tech companies are calling their folks back to work. And that is most definitely not a positive for SD RE market.

Bigger issue I see is if the magnitude of this tech stock crash reaches .com crash level or worse, and the Fed stops printing money to support the corporate bond market as they did before, there will simply be a lot fewer jobs in the industry.

And let’s face it, if hiring 100% remote is fully normalized, why would I hire a San Diego engineer at 200K when I can get the same productivity out of an Indian engineer for 50K or less?

[an]

[quote=deadzone]
And let’s face it, if hiring 100% remote is fully normalized, why would I hire a San Diego engineer at 200K when I can get the same productivity out of an Indian engineer for 50K or less?[/quote]
LoL, no, just no.

[barnaby33]

deadzone wrote:

And let’s face it, if hiring 100% remote is fully normalized, why would I hire a San Diego engineer at 200K when I can get the same productivity out of an Indian engineer for 50K or less?

LoL, no, just no.

Seconded. Having been in IT for 25 years now, that’s a myth. If the Indian/Chinese/Russian was that good, he’d most likely be in the US already.
Josh

[Anonymous]

[quote=barnaby33]deadzone wrote:

And let’s face it, if hiring 100% remote is fully normalized, why would I hire a San Diego engineer at 200K when I can get the same productivity out of an Indian engineer for 50K or less?

LoL, no, just no.

Seconded. Having been in IT for 25 years now, that’s a myth. If the Indian/Chinese/Russian was that good, he’d most likely be in the US already.
Josh[/quote]

Perhaps. But it is irrelevant, the majority of white collar workers will go back to the office, at least part time, once Covid is over.
And the entitled, prima donna tech workers who are threatening to quit if forced back to the office can do so. But they better be careful because the job market is not going to be so favorable if this tech bubble crash continues on its current trajectory.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=barnaby33]deadzone wrote:

And let’s face it, if hiring 100% remote is fully normalized, why would I hire a San Diego engineer at 200K when I can get the same productivity out of an Indian engineer for 50K or less?

LoL, no, just no.

Seconded. Having been in IT for 25 years now, that’s a myth. If the Indian/Chinese/Russian was that good, he’d most likely be in the US already.
Josh[/quote]

Perhaps. But it is irrelevant, the majority of white collar workers will go back to the office, at least part time, once Covid is over.
And the entitled, prima donna tech workers who are threatening to quit if forced back to the office can do so. But they better be careful because the job market is not going to be so favorable if this tech bubble crash continues on its current trajectory.[/quote]

Man,

deadzone tell us how you really feel about tech workers, lol. You definitely have an ax to grind with tech workers. Could it possibly be you once were during the dot.com days and somehow never made it back into tech?

Sour grapes, much?

lol

Tech jobs aren’t necessary opportunites of a lifetime. You might think it that way by seeing others successful at it, but it’s not for everyone and not being in tech doesn’t mean one can’t be successful.

Personally, I’m happy to see finally tech workers making serious $$$$. For years, I thought it was pretty funny that investment bankers make 10x+ more than tech workers was a little strange, lol.

[sdrealtor]

meanwhile out on the streets heard about a few more properties with over 20 offers each in the last week

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]meanwhile out on the streets heard about a few more properties with over 20 offers each in the last week[/quote]Bubble! have you not learn anything from 2008?

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]
Man,

deadzone tell us how you really feel about tech workers, lol. You definitely have an ax to grind with tech workers. Could it possibly be you once were during the dot.com days and somehow never made it back into tech?

Sour grapes, much?

lol

Tech jobs aren’t necessary opportunites of a lifetime. You might think it that way by seeing others successful at it, but it’s not for everyone and not being in tech doesn’t mean one can’t be successful.

Personally, I’m happy to see finally tech workers making serious $$$$. For years, I thought it was pretty funny that investment bankers make 10x+ more than tech workers was a little strange, lol.[/quote]

No axe to grind at tech workers in general, only towards the entitled, prima donna subset of tech workers (or any industry for that matter). The ones who feel so highly of themselves they really believe they are irreplaceable. Most of these, I suspect, entered the workforce post 2009/2010 recession and only know good times as their careers benefitted from the gale force tailwinds of fed money printing. I’ve seen this before, those same attitudes were common place in the late 90s in the tech industry.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]
No axe to grind at tech workers in general, only towards the entitled, prima donna subset of tech workers (or any industry for that matter). The ones who feel so highly of themselves they really believe they are irreplaceable. Most of these, I suspect, entered the workforce post 2009/2010 recession and only know good times as their careers benefitted from the gale force tailwinds of fed money printing. I’ve seen this before, those same attitudes were common place in the late 90s in the tech industry.[/quote]

Um, ok if you say so.

Yeah, that’s what people use to say about Qualcomm.

….Back in 94 before the 2:1 stock split.
Then they certainly were finished
… Before the 2:1 stock split in 1999…
Then obviously they were finished with the patent issues…
….Before the 4:1 stock split in Dec 1999….
They were certainly done with all the IP lawsuits….
….Before the 2:1 stock split in 2004
….And clearly they were finished when they were 38/share a few years ago…
That was before Broadcom hostile takeover failed, Intel pulled out of 5G, Apple gave up on 5G and settled….

Tech sure is finished….lol

I’m sure there will be another real estate opportunity of a lifetime . one day.

[sdrealtor]

Agreed! It will just be some else’s lifetime

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Agreed! It will just be some else’s lifetime[/quote]
You will never know… No one predicted what happened over the last couple of years. Would be insane if we do see a repeat of the 70s to mid 80s. Would be awesome to see 5-10x gains LoL. Only hindsight will we know if it’ll be an opportunity of a lifetime or not. Let’s revisit this thread in 2035.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]
No axe to grind at tech workers in general, only towards the entitled, prima donna subset of tech workers (or any industry for that matter). The ones who feel so highly of themselves they really believe they are irreplaceable. Most of these, I suspect, entered the workforce post 2009/2010 recession and only know good times as their careers benefitted from the gale force tailwinds of fed money printing. I’ve seen this before, those same attitudes were common place in the late 90s in the tech industry.[/quote]

Um, ok if you say so.

Yeah, that’s what people use to say about Qualcomm.

….Back in 94 before the 2:1 stock split.
Then they certainly were finished
… Before the 2:1 stock split in 1999…
Then obviously they were finished with the patent issues…
….Before the 4:1 stock split in Dec 1999….
They were certainly done with all the IP lawsuits….
….Before the 2:1 stock split in 2004
….And clearly they were finished when they were 38/share a few years ago…
That was before Broadcom hostile takeover failed, Intel pulled out of 5G, Apple gave up on 5G and settled….

Tech sure is finished….lol

I’m sure there will be another real estate opportunity of a lifetime . one day.[/quote]

What does Qualcomm have to do with it? Nobody is predicting the “demise” of tech. But the industry is clearly too big for its britches right now and that is because it’s been boosted to bubble heights by artificial money pumping by Fed, just like late 90s VC money was flowing like beer at a Frat party. When the money machine stops, there will be a lot of tech workers on the street. We’ll see how that entitled attitude of “I’ll quit if I can’t work from home in my PJs” works out then.

[barnaby33]

Deadzone you really do have an axe to grind. Wow, primadonnas? I don’t know about the rest of the tech industry but I am straight of back, white of tooth and above all modest.

I offered you a rebuttal and then you said it was irrelevant. You sir are veering off into incoherence. I may be wrong but I’ve been around in tech a long time. Salaries aren’t actually that high now. During the 90’s contract software engineers (more senior than me at the time but certainly less so than me now) could regularly find 100+/hr contracts. Those are few and far between these days. Plus the cost of living has what tripled? Salaries have really stagnated and compressed. Sure a college grad now gets 80k to start but trying to find jobs above 140k is still difficult. I think you think that everyone works at FAANG or that’s the impression I get.
Josh

[barnaby33]

Oh and I for one am not going back to an office unless forced to. If there is a bloodbath in tech it won’t last forever and my first jump would be from an office to remote, if I were so coerced.
Josh

[sdrealtor]

[quote=barnaby33]Oh and I for one am not going back to an office unless forced to. If there is a bloodbath in tech it won’t last forever and my first jump would be from an office to remote, if I were so coerced.
Josh[/quote]

WFH certainly presents advantages for decanting one’s dinner wine

[barnaby33]

Stop being so Protestant! Wine isn’t just for dinner anymore!
Josh

[scaredyclassic]

I would be very sad never going to an office.

I want to see all the people.

[spdrun]

^^^ Kidding, or are you an outlier out of all tech workers?

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]^^^ Kidding, or are you an outlier out of all tech workers?[/quote]

Scaredy is a lawyer, dude.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita][quote=spdrun]^^^ Kidding, or are you an outlier out of all tech workers?[/quote]

Scaredy is a lawyer, dude.[/quote]

I’m probably not cut out for tech. The thought of being alone with a computer and no people is scary.

Remote court appearances are sad too. Where would jim and Pam be if THE OFFICE had been remote? Jim would not have wed Pam, he wouldn’t have started athlead, wouldn’t have had all those friendships, wouldn’t have grown up…

Jim (final episode summation)
I sold paper at this company for twelve years. My job was to speak to clients on the phone about quantities and types of copier paper. Even if I didn’t love every minute of it, everything I have, I owe to this job. This stupid…wonderful…boring…amazing job.

I tend to agree with that. I wouldn’t be who I am without all the many workplaces I went through.

Although I did meet my wife at a random party 30 years ago in l.a. ….so I guess that wasn’t from work…

[spdrun]

^^^
I discovered that I was happier working in person during COVID … I went the other way from most people. I hear you.

[Anonymous]

[quote=barnaby33]Deadzone you really do have an axe to grind. Wow, primadonnas? I don’t know about the rest of the tech industry but I am straight of back, white of tooth and above all modest.

I offered you a rebuttal and then you said it was irrelevant. You sir are veering off into incoherence. I may be wrong but I’ve been around in tech a long time. Salaries aren’t actually that high now. During the 90’s contract software engineers (more senior than me at the time but certainly less so than me now) could regularly find 100+/hr contracts. Those are few and far between these days. Plus the cost of living has what tripled? Salaries have really stagnated and compressed. Sure a college grad now gets 80k to start but trying to find jobs above 140k is still difficult. I think you think that everyone works at FAANG or that’s the impression I get.
Josh[/quote]

You tech guys have reading comprehension issues. I said the prima-donnas are the ones who threaten to quit if “forced” to work from the office a couple times a week. Think their skills are so unique, rare and irreplaceable that they can get any job they want. I see a lot of this attitude lately and it reminds me of the late 90s when engineers were hopping between multiple startups every few months chasing higher salary and stock options. Until the shit hit the fan.

Sure most employees would prefer to work at home in their pijamas all day, save gas, avoid rush hour traffic, jerk off during lunch break, etc. But the fact is corporate management is not in favor of that because they know it is not the most productive situation. That’s why they are calling their employees back to the office now that Covid is over. You guys can whine about it all you want, but it isn’t going to change the fact that fully remote work is going to be the exception, not the norm, going forward.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=barnaby33]Deadzone you really do have an axe to grind. Wow, primadonnas? I don’t know about the rest of the tech industry but I am straight of back, white of tooth and above all modest.

I offered you a rebuttal and then you said it was irrelevant. You sir are veering off into incoherence. I may be wrong but I’ve been around in tech a long time. Salaries aren’t actually that high now. During the 90’s contract software engineers (more senior than me at the time but certainly less so than me now) could regularly find 100+/hr contracts. Those are few and far between these days. Plus the cost of living has what tripled? Salaries have really stagnated and compressed. Sure a college grad now gets 80k to start but trying to find jobs above 140k is still difficult. I think you think that everyone works at FAANG or that’s the impression I get.
Josh[/quote]

You tech guys have reading comprehension issues. I said the prima-donnas are the ones who threaten to quit if “forced” to work from the office a couple times a week. Think their skills are so unique, rare and irreplaceable that they can get any job they want. I see a lot of this attitude lately and it reminds me of the late 90s when engineers were hopping between multiple startups every few months chasing higher salary and stock options. Until the shit hit the fan.

Sure most employees would prefer to work at home in their pijamas all day, save gas, avoid rush hour traffic, jerk off during lunch break, etc. But the fact is corporate management is not in favor of that because they know it is not the most productive situation. That’s why they are calling their employees back to the office now that Covid is over. You guys can whine about it all you want, but it isn’t going to change the fact that fully remote work is going to be the exception, not the norm, going forward.[/quote]

Speaking of reading comprehension issues someone seems to be stuck on the idea that we need everyone working fully remote to continue the incredible growth around here. We do not! A small handful each month arriving has and will continue to change the housing market around here

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]
Speaking of reading comprehension issues someone seems to be stuck on the idea that we need everyone working fully remote to continue the incredible growth around here. We do not! A small handful each month arriving has and will continue to change the housing market around here[/quote]

Do you truly believe that fully remote tech jobs are currently and in the future going to be a major contribution to San Diego housing price growth? Fully remote workers can live literally anywhere in the country (or world?). Is it really logical to think they ALL want to move to San Diego which is one of the highest COL areas in the U.S.? But regardless, any way you slice it, the growth rate of tech workers going fully remote is going to be going in reverse with Covid over. I never claimed that fully remote won’t be a thing going forward. But it will never again be at the level of during Covid.

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]
Speaking of reading comprehension issues someone seems to be stuck on the idea that we need everyone working fully remote to continue the incredible growth around here. We do not! A small handful each month arriving has and will continue to change the housing market around here[/quote]

Do you truly believe that fully remote tech jobs are currently and in the future going to be a major contribution to San Diego housing price growth? Fully remote workers can live literally anywhere in the country (or world?). Is it really logical to think they ALL want to move to San Diego which is one of the highest COL areas in the U.S.? But regardless, any way you slice it, the growth rate of tech workers going fully remote is going to be going in reverse with Covid over. I never claimed that fully remote won’t be a thing going forward. But it will never again be at the level of during Covid.[/quote]
I don’t think anyone in their right mind will say the WFH quantity is normal or permanent. After, everyone either was not working or WFH during part of COVID. So, we’ll never see that again, unless we see another pandemic like COVID.

Isn’t that the definition of a strawman argument?

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]
Speaking of reading comprehension issues someone seems to be stuck on the idea that we need everyone working fully remote to continue the incredible growth around here. We do not! A small handful each month arriving has and will continue to change the housing market around here[/quote]

Do you truly believe that fully remote tech jobs are currently and in the future going to be a major contribution to San Diego housing price growth? Fully remote workers can live literally anywhere in the country (or world?). Is it really logical to think they ALL want to move to San Diego which is one of the highest COL areas in the U.S.? But regardless, any way you slice it, the growth rate of tech workers going fully remote is going to be going in reverse with Covid over. I never claimed that fully remote won’t be a thing going forward. But it will never again be at the level of during Covid.[/quote]
I don’t think anyone in their right mind will say the WFH quantity is normal or permanent. After, everyone either was not working or WFH during part of COVID. So, we’ll never see that again, unless we see another pandemic like COVID.

Isn’t that the definition of a strawman argument?[/quote]

Strawman my ass. The number of people fully working from home is going down. Period. Companies are bringing folks back to the office, in droves, that have been working fully from home for 2 years. That’s the whole point. What is this so hard to understand? If you claim fully remote workers were a significant factor in SD (or any other city’s) RE gains over the last 2 years, you can’t also claim that remote workers going back to the office won’t have a negative impact. You can’t have it both ways.

[Coronita]

.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]

Strawman my ass. The number of people fully working from home is going down. Period. Companies are bringing folks back to the office, in droves, that have been working fully from home for 2 years. That’s the whole point. What is this so hard to understand? If you claim fully remote workers were a significant factor in SD (or any other city’s) RE gains over the last 2 years, you can’t also claim that remote workers going back to the office won’t have a negative impact. You can’t have it both ways.[/quote]

Again, why does it matter for SD real estate, whether ?[/quote]

For the upteenth time, because it has been reported all over the media, and by folks at this site including you, that Bay area tech workers were moving down to San Diego in droves to buy houses during Covid and WFH. I’ve heard that same story in the media about many other cities besides San Diego, so not unique to San Diego. Whether that is actually a significant factor in Sd RE growth I don’t know. But if it is, that trend will reverse itself post Covid as the number of fully remote jobs goes down.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]

Strawman my ass. The number of people fully working from home is going down. Period. Companies are bringing folks back to the office, in droves, that have been working fully from home for 2 years. That’s the whole point. What is this so hard to understand? If you claim fully remote workers were a significant factor in SD (or any other city’s) RE gains over the last 2 years, you can’t also claim that remote workers going back to the office won’t have a negative impact. You can’t have it both ways.[/quote]

Again, why does it matter for SD real estate, whether ?[/quote]

For the upteenth time, because it has been reported all over the media, and by folks at this site including you, that Bay area tech workers were moving down to San Diego in droves to buy houses during Covid and WFH. I’ve heard that same story in the media about many other cities besides San Diego, so not unique to San Diego. Whether that is actually a significant factor in Sd RE growth I don’t know. But if it is, that trend will reverse itself post Covid as the number of fully remote jobs goes down.[/quote]

Yes, and how will those people that already have commitments from the bay area companies to allow them to work remotely and have been doing this for some time, affect things? You really think all the sudden they are being called back into the office? Um no… Not even amazon…No one that I know that was given the option to work remotely for Amazon has that rescinded since Amazon’s soft back peddling… Perhaps you missed it. And yes, I know plenty of people that continue to work remotely at Amazon.

https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/workplace/amazon-offering-teams-more-flexibility-as-we-return-to-office

[quote]
For our corporate roles, instead of specifying that people work a baseline of three days a week in the office, we’re going to leave this decision up to individual teams. This decision will be made team by team at the Director level. We expect that there will be teams that continue working mostly remotely, others that will work some combination of remotely and in the office, and still others that will decide customers are best served having the team work mostly in the office. We’re intentionally not prescribing how many days or which days—this is for Directors to determine with their senior leaders and teams. The decisions should be guided by what will be most effective for our customers; and not surprisingly, we will all continue to be evaluated by how we deliver for customers, regardless of where the work is performed.
[/quote]

How many Amazon engineers do you personally know that relocated down here and that you know personally that has said they now move back?

[an]

[quote=deadzone]
Strawman my ass. The number of people fully working from home is going down. Period. Companies are bringing folks back to the office, in droves, that have been working fully from home for 2 years. That’s the whole point. What is this so hard to understand? If you claim fully remote workers were a significant factor in SD (or any other city’s) RE gains over the last 2 years, you can’t also claim that remote workers going back to the office won’t have a negative impact. You can’t have it both ways.[/quote]
Of course number wfh went down. Everyone (except for essential workers) were either WFH or not working. So, yes, it is a strawman cuz no one is arguing with you about that. You’re arguing against yourself on that one. Which is the exact definition of strawman.

[sdrealtor]

And the bulk of those who have gone back were generally lower paid and not the ones that impact RE to a greater degree

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]And the bulk of those who have gone back were generally lower paid and not the ones that impact RE to a greater degree[/quote]

Right, and you have some evidence to support this? Of course not, pulled right out of your sphincter.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]And the bulk of those who have gone back were generally lower paid and not the ones that impact RE to a greater degree[/quote]

Right, and you have some evidence to support this? Of course not, pulled right out of your sphincter.[/quote]

There are no statistics on this but all the well paid professionals I know are still working from home while the more mundane worker bees are back. So which one are you? Are you still WFH? Who from your company has already gone back? Managment or clerical?

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]
Strawman my ass. The number of people fully working from home is going down. Period. Companies are bringing folks back to the office, in droves, that have been working fully from home for 2 years. That’s the whole point. What is this so hard to understand? If you claim fully remote workers were a significant factor in SD (or any other city’s) RE gains over the last 2 years, you can’t also claim that remote workers going back to the office won’t have a negative impact. You can’t have it both ways.[/quote]
Of course number wfh went down. Everyone (except for essential workers) were either WFH or not working. So, yes, it is a strawman cuz no one is arguing with you about that. You’re arguing against yourself on that one. Which is the exact definition of strawman.[/quote]

No, actually people on this site have been arguing this. Many here don’t really understand mathematics. They think just because the WFH folks who moved here aren’t necessarily going back to Bay area, that this is good for the housing market. It doesn’t mean squat becauese they’ve already bought their houses. What matter is growth (positive or negative) going forward. The point is there will be less and less future opportunities to move from Bay Area to SanDiego (or whereever) to wfH going forward so there will be far less demand than there was during Covid.

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]
Strawman my ass. The number of people fully working from home is going down. Period. Companies are bringing folks back to the office, in droves, that have been working fully from home for 2 years. That’s the whole point. What is this so hard to understand? If you claim fully remote workers were a significant factor in SD (or any other city’s) RE gains over the last 2 years, you can’t also claim that remote workers going back to the office won’t have a negative impact. You can’t have it both ways.[/quote]
Of course number wfh went down. Everyone (except for essential workers) were either WFH or not working. So, yes, it is a strawman cuz no one is arguing with you about that. You’re arguing against yourself on that one. Which is the exact definition of strawman.[/quote]

No, actually people on this site have been arguing this. Many here don’t really understand mathematics. They think just because the WFH folks who moved here aren’t necessarily going back to Bay area, that this is good for the housing market. It doesn’t mean squat becauese they’ve already bought their houses. What matter is growth (positive or negative) going forward. The point is there will be less and less future opportunities to move from Bay Area to SanDiego (or whereever) to wfH going forward so there will be far less demand than there was during Covid.[/quote]
Can you quote someone who said we either will stay 100% remote as a whole (except for essential workers) or somehow, 100% remote as a whole (including essential workers)?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]
Strawman my ass. The number of people fully working from home is going down. Period. Companies are bringing folks back to the office, in droves, that have been working fully from home for 2 years. That’s the whole point. What is this so hard to understand? If you claim fully remote workers were a significant factor in SD (or any other city’s) RE gains over the last 2 years, you can’t also claim that remote workers going back to the office won’t have a negative impact. You can’t have it both ways.[/quote]
Of course number wfh went down. Everyone (except for essential workers) were either WFH or not working. So, yes, it is a strawman cuz no one is arguing with you about that. You’re arguing against yourself on that one. Which is the exact definition of strawman.[/quote]

No, actually people on this site have been arguing this. Many here don’t really understand mathematics. They think just because the WFH folks who moved here aren’t necessarily going back to Bay area, that this is good for the housing market. It doesn’t mean squat becauese they’ve already bought their houses. What matter is growth (positive or negative) going forward. The point is there will be less and less future opportunities to move from Bay Area to SanDiego (or whereever) to wfH going forward so there will be far less demand than there was during Covid.[/quote]

And you dont understand how thinly traded real estate is. My zip code has nearly 50,000 residents. There are currently 3 houses on the market (all way overpriced) and 40 in escrow. You dont really understand mathematics. This is the way its been for quite some time. A nice house comes on the market and dozens flock to see it but it goes to the person with the most money. There is only 1 winner and dozens of losers each time. Every week through life events, people moving up (or down in some cases) a small amount trickles on with hoards awaiting and the hoards are growing. We dont need huge numbers of arrivals from the north to change our markets. One or two a month for any reason change our market. Residents are locked in with sub 3% mortgages, low tax bills and huge potential capital gain taxes. Few want to or have a reason to sell. The point is there will be less and less future housing opportunities to move from Bay Area to San Diego so its perfectly fine that there is far less demand than there was during Covid. The market is not set by the “smart conservative guy” its set by the the “richest dumbass”

[flyer]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]
Strawman my ass. The number of people fully working from home is going down. Period. Companies are bringing folks back to the office, in droves, that have been working fully from home for 2 years. That’s the whole point. What is this so hard to understand? If you claim fully remote workers were a significant factor in SD (or any other city’s) RE gains over the last 2 years, you can’t also claim that remote workers going back to the office won’t have a negative impact. You can’t have it both ways.[/quote]
Of course number wfh went down. Everyone (except for essential workers) were either WFH or not working. So, yes, it is a strawman cuz no one is arguing with you about that. You’re arguing against yourself on that one. Which is the exact definition of strawman.[/quote]

No, actually people on this site have been arguing this. Many here don’t really understand mathematics. They think just because the WFH folks who moved here aren’t necessarily going back to Bay area, that this is good for the housing market. It doesn’t mean squat becauese they’ve already bought their houses. What matter is growth (positive or negative) going forward. The point is there will be less and less future opportunities to move from Bay Area to SanDiego (or whereever) to wfH going forward so there will be far less demand than there was during Covid.[/quote]

And you dont understand how thinly traded real estate is. My zip code has nearly 50,000 residents. There are currently 3 houses on the market (all way overpriced) and 40 in escrow. You dont really understand mathematics. This is the way its been for quite some time. A nice house comes on the market and dozens flock to see it but it goes to the person with the most money. There is only 1 winner and dozens of losers each time. Every week through life events, people moving up (or down in some cases) a small amount trickles on with hoards awaiting and the hoards are growing. We dont need huge numbers of arrivals from the north to change our markets. One or two a month for any reason change our market. Residents are locked in with sub 3% mortgages, low tax bills and huge potential capital gain taxes. Few want to or have a reason to sell. The point is there will be less and less future housing opportunities to move from Bay Area to San Diego so its perfectly fine that there is far less demand than there was during Covid. The market is not set by the “smart conservative guy” its set by the the “richest dumbass”[/quote]

Agree, sdr, and another point to support “less and less future housing opportunities” going forward, is, many, many of us–including friends, relatives, neighbors etc., etc.,–never, ever plan to sell our real estate holdings–especially in San Diego–but plan to pass everything along to our families, and these decisions have absolutely nothing to do with whether tech or other workers will ultimately work from home or in the office. Not even a minor consideration.

[sdrealtor]

You are locked in by high capital gain taxes and low property taxes. Death and prop 19 changes that but it’s gonna take a while. Someday the future Silver Spooners in your family will sell them maybe sooner than you think. But it’s not gonna happen en masse for at least a decade or two. Not our problem

[flyer]

[quote=sdrealtor]You are locked in by high capital gain taxes and low property taxes. Death and prop 19 changes that but it’s gonna take a while. Someday the future Silver Spooners in your family will sell them maybe sooner than you think. But it’s not gonna happen en masse for at least a decade or two. Not our problem[/quote]

I’m sure they’ll find a way to make it work–I’m not worried about it–but, my point, per this discussion, was that, like you, I don’t think where people physically work will have any real effect on the future of the housing market. Sure, the market could rise or fall for other reasons, but I don’t think that will be one of them.

[sdrealtor]

Of course they’ll find a way to make it work. When death comes they will get a step up in basis so they can sell tax free properties that lost decades old assessed real estate tax values. They’ll take the money and invest it in higher yielding opportunities than SD real estate as they should but again not our problem

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]Of course they’ll find a way to make it work. When death comes they will get a step up in basis so they can sell tax free properties that lost decades old assessed real estate tax values. They’ll take the money and invest it in higher yielding opportunities than SD real estate as they should but again not our problem[/quote]

Well, Prop 19 already eliminates keeping the primary home’s tax basis unless the kids end up living in the home, and it’s only for the amount up to $1million, which pretty much eliminates most homes now in SD County from a complete prop tax carryover.
There was a lot of people trying to work around this but it involved putting your kids on the deed… Honestly though, for someone that did well in real estate in CA not carrying over the property tax basis isn’t really a big deal if your real estate is now worth a few million.

The other issue is the capital gains step up cost basis. That’s nice, but you can count on that being eliminated one of these days if the democrats maintain a significant majority in our government or at least eliminated for most people who have a accumulated a decent nest egg.

However, I think well off people can work around that too. Flyer you should be aware of these accounting tricks and tax strategies. For example, using Annuities and Life Insurance which have very favorable tax treatments and also Irrevocable Trusts and Corps which potentially can allow the entity to persist and maintain many tax benefits, at a cost of the issue of a lot of paperwork and possible double taxation. Things you should be very familiar with if you are indeed wealthy, or if you were just given your wealth without the practical operating knowledge, your parents or your spouse’s parents probably already figured it out with your the family CPAs for you.

[flyer]

Not to worry–we’re all set–not a problem. And, yes, when death comes–as it will to all–the step up in basis will become one of their best friends. Of course, as mentioned, they might also continue to take advantage of other higher yielding opportunities other than SD real estate, as we all have.

My point, per this thread, was that many people are keeping properties for many reasons, rather than selling, again limiting the number of homes on the market–and, especially, if the escalation in prices continues, imo–this trend will only increase as time goes on–having, possibly, an even greater impact than whether people work at home or in an office.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=flyer]Not to worry–we’re all set–not a problem. And, yes, when death comes–as it will to all–the step up in basis will become one of their best friends. Of course, as mentioned, they might also continue to take advantage of other higher yielding opportunities other than SD real estate, as we all have.

My point, per this thread, was that many people are keeping properties for many reasons, rather than selling, again limiting the number of homes on the market–and, especially, if the escalation in prices continues, imo–this trend will only increase as time goes on–having, possibly, an even greater impact than whether people work at home or in an office.[/quote]

Live your best life!

[flyer]

Hope we all can!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=flyer]Hope we all can![/quote]

You can do it!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]
Speaking of reading comprehension issues someone seems to be stuck on the idea that we need everyone working fully remote to continue the incredible growth around here. We do not! A small handful each month arriving has and will continue to change the housing market around here[/quote]

Do you truly believe that fully remote tech jobs are currently and in the future going to be a major contribution to San Diego housing price growth? Fully remote workers can live literally anywhere in the country (or world?). Is it really logical to think they ALL want to move to San Diego which is one of the highest COL areas in the U.S.? But regardless, any way you slice it, the growth rate of tech workers going fully remote is going to be going in reverse with Covid over. I never claimed that fully remote won’t be a thing going forward. But it will never again be at the level of during Covid.[/quote]

There goes that reading comprehension deficiency again. No one said they ALL have to move here. To the contrary only a small handful. And yes I think they have already had a significant impact here and will continue to along with several other factors driving growth here

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]

You tech guys have reading comprehension issues. I said the prima-donnas are the ones who threaten to quit if “forced” to work from the office a couple times a week. Think their skills are so unique, rare and irreplaceable that they can get any job they want. I see a lot of this attitude lately and it reminds me of the late 90s when engineers were hopping between multiple startups every few months chasing higher salary and stock options. Until the shit hit the fan.

Sure most employees would prefer to work at home in their pijamas all day, save gas, avoid rush hour traffic, jerk off during lunch break, etc. But the fact is corporate management is not in favor of that because they know it is not the most productive situation. That’s why they are calling their employees back to the office now that Covid is over. You guys can whine about it all you want, but it isn’t going to change the fact that fully remote work is going to be the exception, not the norm, going forward.[/quote]

Dz, there are lot of non-tech people on this thread responding to you about your assertions and generalizations being incorrect. But yet, you decided to collectively lump all these people all as tech workers. Besides generalizing wrong, it also does yet again suggest you have a ax to grind with tech workers, no different than previous BearishGurl having an ax to grind with college degreed people who bought homes in far flung North County with lizards and walls. Just saying…

And again, you are arguing with yourself. No one ever said remote work is going to be the norm for everyone and every company. Almost everyone said that some (NOT ALL) companies are going to adopt remote a remote option of varying degree, and that’s no longer going to be a trivial amount. The work environment has changed enough for enough companies to make a material difference to give some people options. Remote work is not without drawbacks, and individuals have to weigh the pros and cons like anything else. But even the adoption of a hybrid work environment makes a big difference because unlike before, that gives people that further away to obtain a job. Before, driving 2+hrs one way every day to a job might not be possible for some. But now with a hybrid model, that’s more obtainable for people that only have to do it for part of the week or part of the month. Real families with real commitments to kids for instance, with more job mobility further way, that opens the door to greater career and earning prospects. For instance, if an company in OC is offering 25% above comps at the inconvenience of making someone work 5-6 days out of the month, that might be worth it for a family at various stages and earnings in their life. If I was in my late 20ies or early 30ies, I wouldn’t mind doing it. I wouldn’t do it for now because I’d rather spend the extra time with my family and I don’t need the extra 25% pay bump if it means more hours of commute per month. But for others, it might be worth it. That also applies to all sorts of jobs. For instance lower paying clerical work. If someone currently makes $20/hrs and has to spend 1 hr each way each day commuting, but another company now offers those clerical jobs remotely for roughly the same pay, it makes sense for that person to switch jobs since an hourly making $20/hr, commute costs is a significant impact on their household income so why wouldn’t they take the remote job with the same pay. And companies that have a hard time finding in-person clerical workers, well they’ll have to pay more, say $25/hr, which is probably fair considering those people coming in have to commute. That’s solves a lot of problems with companies being in a expensive area like Sorrento Valley where people paid $20-25/hour probably can’t otherwise afford to live comfortably near it and the company can’t easily find people who are willing to drive longer distances for those jobs.

Beyond that, locally there appears to be a pretty good growth in new higher paying jobs in biotech and life sciences too.

I’m sorry if you feel like you’re getting left behind and feel a need to wish people who have a decent career prospects to lose their jobs in order for you to get ahead. Reality is that life most of the time isn’t a zero sum game, and most likely one is one’s worst enemy more than anyone else.

[scaredyclassic]

Strangely, many of the telemedicine jobs my wife’s been offered require the doctors to come to the medical office to do the telemedicine. For no real reason… They can’t quite let go of making people show up.

I think in general management likes to see bodies it can exercise control of.

I exaggerate my love of human interaction. Humans can be draining and infuriating, and having to deal with them via screen or phone can make it easier. More distant, less affecting. This may better many workers mental health.

On the downside, there have been coworkers, some, over the years whose presence I’ve deeply enjoyed. On the other hand, some people are maddening.

[Coronita]

[quote=scaredyclassic]Strangely, many of the telemedicine jobs my wife’s been offered require the doctors to come to the medical office to do the telemedicine. For no real reason… They can’t quite let go of making people show up.

I think in general management likes to see bodies it can exercise control of.

I exaggerate my love of human interaction. Humans can be draining and infuriating, and having to deal with them via screen or phone can make it easier. More distant, less affecting. This may better many workers mental health.

On the downside, there have been coworkers, some, over the years whose presence I’ve deeply enjoyed. On the other hand, some people are maddening.[/quote]

Well, there are some jobs (for instance) lab work that requires in person obviously. But there’s also some management style that have trust issues with employees.

I found that it was interesting that one biotech company a friend works out made all their hourly coworkers go back to office and make them work in close contacct cubicles while they gave all the engineers/scientists single room offices and also the option to work remotely. Obviously, all the engineers scientists are all working from home so all the single room offices are left unoccupied while all the clerical workers (the ones that haven’t quit yet) are bunched together in cubicles in close contact. To me, that sends a strong message to the clerical workers. “We don’t give a shit about you, even if you get sick from a covid reinfection…” And they wonder why people quit and it’s hard to find replacements.

[sdrealtor]

“ You tech guys have reading comprehension issues. I said the prima-donnas are the ones who threaten to quit if “forced” to work from the office a couple times a week. Think their skills are so unique, rare and irreplaceable that they can get any job they want. I see a lot of this attitude lately and it reminds me of the late 90s when engineers were hopping between multiple startups every few months chasing higher salary and stock options. Until the shit hit the fan.”

His ax to grind is on full display here. It must suck to be so unhappy and envious. It’s not that they think their skills are so unique, rare and irreplaceable but rather they know there is tons of demand for their skills. It’s not that they are unique but rather they are under supplied. It kind of reminds me of San Diego real estate and the opportunity of a lifetime here missed! OOAL!

[barnaby33]

ou tech guys have reading comprehension issues. I said the prima-donnas are the ones who threaten to quit if “forced” to work from the office a couple times a week. Think their skills are so unique, rare and irreplaceable that they can get any job they want. I see a lot of this attitude lately and it reminds me of the late 90s when engineers were hopping between multiple startups every few months chasing higher salary and stock options. Until the shit hit the fan.

Sure most employees would prefer to work at home in their pijamas all day, save gas, avoid rush hour traffic, jerk off during lunch break, etc. But the fact is corporate management is not in favor of that because they know it is not the most productive situation. That’s why they are calling their employees back to the office now that Covid is over. You guys can whine about it all you want, but it isn’t going to change the fact that fully remote work is going to be the exception, not the norm, going forward.

I guess I’m not cut out for tech, I seldom wait for lunch to jerk off and I wear sweats, not pajama’s. Mgmt tends to be conservative in that it fears that someone, somewhere is having more fun than them. If you’re following the actual trends in tech for the most part remote work is here to stay. At the beginning of the pandemic, most jobs said, “remote for now.” After a year most were, “occassional office time.” Now the solid majority are full remote or mostly remote. Once you build a culture that deals well with it, your company can hire and fire wherever it wants. It’s a competitive perk for both sides and that is why I seriously doubt it’s going away.
Primadonna

[JPJones]

[quote=CDMA ENG]I didnt read all 13 pages of this thread but I read the first five and the last two…

One thing that I didnt hear mention of was that many companies saw an increase in productivity…

Why? Because most of us only have X hours in a day to devoted to work. If I have to get up and get ready that is time given to the company. I have to commute… again time given to the company… For me the maximum at work day I could give was 9 hours. I was commuting to Irvine from north county. So all said and done… about 11.5 hours a day went to the company.

If I now can remote… I can give 10 hours to the company and I get 1.5 hours back… Win Win.

That is an exchange that people want in tech.

There is a good portion of us that had to go into the work. Your bench engineers that have 100K in equipment to work with had to go in. There was no remoting for that but many could do design work from home or even remote into our equipment.

Remoting is here to stay because productivity went up. If companies see a decline then people will be called back.

CDMA ENG[/quote]

It was mentioned here a couple pages ago. I was thinking about asking him for a source, but at this point I can’t be bothered.

[quote=deadzone][quote=barnaby33]Deadzone you really do have an axe to grind. Wow, primadonnas? I don’t know about the rest of the tech industry but I am straight of back, white of tooth and above all modest.

I offered you a rebuttal and then you said it was irrelevant. You sir are veering off into incoherence. I may be wrong but I’ve been around in tech a long time. Salaries aren’t actually that high now. During the 90’s contract software engineers (more senior than me at the time but certainly less so than me now) could regularly find 100+/hr contracts. Those are few and far between these days. Plus the cost of living has what tripled? Salaries have really stagnated and compressed. Sure a college grad now gets 80k to start but trying to find jobs above 140k is still difficult. I think you think that everyone works at FAANG or that’s the impression I get.
Josh[/quote]

You tech guys have reading comprehension issues. I said the prima-donnas are the ones who threaten to quit if “forced” to work from the office a couple times a week. Think their skills are so unique, rare and irreplaceable that they can get any job they want. I see a lot of this attitude lately and it reminds me of the late 90s when engineers were hopping between multiple startups every few months chasing higher salary and stock options. Until the shit hit the fan.

Sure most employees would prefer to work at home in their pijamas all day, save gas, avoid rush hour traffic, jerk off during lunch break, etc. But the fact is corporate management is not in favor of that because they know it is not the most productive situation. That’s why they are calling their employees back to the office now that Covid is over. You guys can whine about it all you want, but it isn’t going to change the fact that fully remote work is going to be the exception, not the norm, going forward.[/quote]

[spdrun]

For me the maximum at work day I could give was 9 hours. I was commuting to Irvine from north county. So all said and done… about 11.5 hours a day went to the company.

If I now can remote… I can give 10 hours to the company and I get 1.5 hours back… Win Win.

The company is saving on office space costs, yet they still expect you to work longer for them? How about they save on the office space and you STILL get to work 9 hours, not have your work day expand.

Remember, the person who used to live 15 min from work is being fucked by the expansion from 9 to 10 hours, even if you’re not.

[CDMA ENG]

[quote=spdrun]

For me the maximum at work day I could give was 9 hours. I was commuting to Irvine from north county. So all said and done… about 11.5 hours a day went to the company.

If I now can remote… I can give 10 hours to the company and I get 1.5 hours back… Win Win.

The company is saving on office space costs, yet they still expect you to work longer for them? How about they save on the office space and you STILL get to work 9 hours, not have your work day expand.

Remember, the person who used to live 15 min from work is being fucked by the expansion from 9 to 10 hours, even if you’re not.[/quote]

I work longer hours because the team of people that I supported were people I respected and actually love. What hours I give to the company to get ahead or to support my friends are purely my business and my decision.

I know you are a big workers right advocate and respect that but there are some of us that are go getters.

My hours my choice.

CE

[spdrun]

[quote=CDMA ENG]
I work longer hours because the team of people that I supported were people I respected and actually love. What hours I give to the company to get ahead or to support my friends are purely my business and my decision.[/quote]

If it’s your decision, it’s fine. If everyone does it and it establishes a norm that hurts others, that’s not so great. No. New. Normal!

This being said, I often pick up for others that are having issues that keep them from working on a given day.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun][quote=CDMA ENG]
I work longer hours because the team of people that I supported were people I respected and actually love. What hours I give to the company to get ahead or to support my friends are purely my business and my decision.[/quote]

If it’s your decision, it’s fine. If everyone does it and it establishes a norm that hurts others, that’s not so great. No. New. Normal!

This being said, I often pick up for others that are having issues that keep them from working on a given day.[/quote]

I think you are worrying too much. I don’t think most employers will force their employees to be remote workers only…just like not all employers will force workers back into the office. There will be a mixture of both and varying degree in between so good talent should be able to find an environment that works best with their lifestyle and abilities. That’s the key.

I think the better employers are making changes in the workforce mainly to improve flexibility and using it as one more tool to attract and retain good talent without competing with raw salary/bonus/stock dollars. And there’s plenty of cases where it does not affect productivity. Most companies will offer some hybrid model of both in person and remote option, again of varying degree. My company just makes you pick one so you are accountable where you are, whether it’s fully in person, fully remote, or hybrid (and then you need to give a concrete plan on which days you are in).

Speaking of which. Are you working for a company now? I thought you were BYOB and hated working for a company and had your own business. If you are BYOB, this shouldn’t matter to you since then you make your own rules, to some extent. If you decided to join a company as an employee, it really isn’t as bad as you make it out to be. There’s pros and cons for everything. There’s a lot of things you don’t need to worry about now. And you can always do both too, best of both worlds (or worst of both worlds, depending on how you look at it)…

If you think about it, it’s just making what use to be regular jobs more flexibility that some BYOB people use to say was one of the main virtues of BYOB instead of being an employee for someone else. Now, if you want to take time off during the day for some non-work related things, you no longer have a rigid schedule (not that I ever felt I couldn’t do that before)…

[JPJones]

*I keep failing at not double-posting. Sorry!

[JPJones]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]
Man,

deadzone tell us how you really feel about tech workers, lol. You definitely have an ax to grind with tech workers. Could it possibly be you once were during the dot.com days and somehow never made it back into tech?

Sour grapes, much?

lol

Tech jobs aren’t necessary opportunites of a lifetime. You might think it that way by seeing others successful at it, but it’s not for everyone and not being in tech doesn’t mean one can’t be successful.

Personally, I’m happy to see finally tech workers making serious $$$$. For years, I thought it was pretty funny that investment bankers make 10x+ more than tech workers was a little strange, lol.[/quote]

No axe to grind at tech workers in general, only towards the entitled, prima donna subset of tech workers (or any industry for that matter). The ones who feel so highly of themselves they really believe they are irreplaceable. Most of these, I suspect, entered the workforce post 2009/2010 recession and only know good times as their careers benefitted from the gale force tailwinds of fed money printing. I’ve seen this before, those same attitudes were common place in the late 90s in the tech industry.[/quote]

Jesus, dude. Who hurt you? You say you have no axe to grind, then proceed to grind an axe.

Anyhow, good tech workers are literally irreplaceable right now. The type of shortage we’re seeing isn’t going to correct itself in a year or two, and for that matter, we aren’t even talking tech workers at this point. WFH is a normal part of benefits packages for every white collar job across every industry now. The cat is out of the bag, and smarter business people than us have figured out how much full-time remote work has increased productivity. (SPOILERS: it’s a lot)

[Coronita]

[quote=JPJones]

Jesus, dude. Who hurt you? You say you have no axe to grind, then proceed to grind an axe.

Anyhow, good tech workers are literally irreplaceable right now. The type of shortage we’re seeing isn’t going to correct itself in a year or two, and for that matter, we aren’t even talking tech workers at this point. WFH is a normal part of benefits packages for every white collar job across every industry now. The cat is out of the bag, and smarter business people than us have figured out how much full-time remote work has increased productivity. (SPOILERS: it’s a lot)[/quote]
[img_assist|nid=27543 | width=700]

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Okay so we’ll see about the remote work/back to work debate as the year progresses. Just pointing out that a lot of big, important tech companies are calling their folks back to work. And that is most definitely not a positive for SD RE market.

Bigger issue I see is if the magnitude of this tech stock crash reaches .com crash level or worse, and the Fed stops printing money to support the corporate bond market as they did before, there will simply be a lot fewer jobs in the industry.

And let’s face it, if hiring 100% remote is fully normalized, why would I hire a San Diego engineer at 200K when I can get the same productivity out of an Indian engineer for 50K or less?[/quote]

Again you aren’t in the tech industry so clearly you don’t understand. I have 4 teams. 1 main engineering team 3 outsourced providers. Your idea of paying someone $50k to get good work these days is way off. our cheapest contracting firm overseas is running around $90k, and there are a boatload of reasons why you can’t count on them to do research and things that aren’t fully speced out. As I mentioned before , part of dollars spent on US employees is so they can accommodate loosey goosey requirements and don’t have 15+hr timezone difference. That might seem to cost more in front, but if you consider how much time is spent going back and forth and redoing stuff, it ends up being in the worst case scenario roughly the same cost. There had ways been the opportunity to use contract firms from overseas well before the pandemic….but unless you setup a shop there and make them your own employee they won’t have a vested interest in building something you want like your full-time hire will. This was even before then pandemic. If your assertions we’re correct, there would be no engineers hired in the US over the past years because the pandemic didn’t bring on the ability to hire foreign contract workers. That option was already there….200k isn’t San Diego wages. It’s what you pay a where in the US for top talent.

Again, lots of people who aren’t engineers, who haven’t built anything, haven’t had any leadership or management team, sure like to think they know what they are doing and yet that couldnt be further from the truth. Reading news articles doesn’t make one an expert in how tech companies run or how to acquire (and more importantly) retain good talent. There’s a false belief people that don’t know that good engineers could easily be replaced by another. While this might be the case for like min wage burger flipping jobs (which in today’s labor market I would challenge that assertion too), things clearly aren’t that way in tech. You have a bunch of posers that apply to these tech jobs but they aren’t real and won’t get hired.

If I get a resume from who says.theu are.an experienced mobile “engineer” who’s only relevant experience is taking classes at “Full Sail University”, it’s going into the trashcan

.

[an]

[quote=Coronita]Well anecdotal story… I have a friend who works at a small biotech company. She’s on the administrative staff and they and support were all told to go back to the office starting next week…

However all the scientists and researchers…They are allowed to work remotely indefinitely.

Now this might seem a bit unfair, because it is. But you know why the company did this, right?

The company views the administrative staff as easily replaceable so they get treated like crap. And their philosophy is well if you quit go ahead we’ll just find a replacement.

However, when it comes to the scientist and engineers. It seems like they don’t want to fvck with them, because I guess if they said the same thing, the scientist and engineers would just walk across the street to a competitor.

Go figure.[/quote]
Yep. Also, for every 1 big company that make their employee goes back to work, there are a few not as big that are going fully remote. Here are some:
Stripe, Shopify, Twilio, Jobot, CloudApp, Slack, Meta, SalesForce etc.

Even Amazon is still advertising for remote positions on LinkedIn.

Also, good luck to the companies who try to tell their engineers to go back to the office after they have already moved. I doubt they’ll fire them lol.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an]
Yep. Also, for every 1 big company that make their employee goes back to work, there are a few not as big that are going fully remote. Here are some:
Stripe, Shopify, Twilio, Jobot, CloudApp, Slack, Meta, SalesForce etc.

Even Amazon is still advertising for remote positions on LinkedIn.

Also, good luck to the companies who try to tell their engineers to go back to the office after they have already moved. I doubt they’ll fire them lol.[/quote]

Those “fully remote” companies you list are all getting pummeled in the market right now. You leave Amazon to work at Shopify for remote work, you take a chance you get laid off in short order. At this rate there are massive layoffs coming at these unprofitable tech companies.

[Coronita]

.

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an]
Yep. Also, for every 1 big company that make their employee goes back to work, there are a few not as big that are going fully remote. Here are some:
Stripe, Shopify, Twilio, Jobot, CloudApp, Slack, Meta, SalesForce etc.

Even Amazon is still advertising for remote positions on LinkedIn.

Also, good luck to the companies who try to tell their engineers to go back to the office after they have already moved. I doubt they’ll fire them lol.[/quote]

Those “fully remote” companies you list are all getting pummeled in the market right now. You leave Amazon to work at Shopify for remote work, you take a chance you get laid off in short order. At this rate there are massive layoffs coming at these unprofitable tech companies.[/quote]Stock price is not the same as company health. Shopify revenue is growing, profit is growing, profit margin is growing. So, I doubt anyone would be concerned. If there is a layoff, companies tend to lay off the lower performer and/or those they wanted to fire but can’t for whatever reason.

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an]
Yep. Also, for every 1 big company that make their employee goes back to work, there are a few not as big that are going fully remote. Here are some:
Stripe, Shopify, Twilio, Jobot, CloudApp, Slack, Meta, SalesForce etc.

Even Amazon is still advertising for remote positions on LinkedIn.

Also, good luck to the companies who try to tell their engineers to go back to the office after they have already moved. I doubt they’ll fire them lol.[/quote]

Those “fully remote” companies you list are all getting pummeled in the market right now. You leave Amazon to work at Shopify for remote work, you take a chance you get laid off in short order. At this rate there are massive layoffs coming at these unprofitable tech companies.[/quote]Stock price is not the same as company health. Shopify revenue is growing, profit is growing, profit margin is growing. So, I doubt anyone would be concerned. If there is a layoff, companies tend to lay off the lower performer and/or those they wanted to fire but can’t for whatever reason.

[Anonymous]

Problem is if there is layoffs at Shopify or whatever it will be due to after effects of market crash and recession from the bursting of the bubble. So in that scenario most of the industry will be laying off.

Back to the original comment, sure there will probably some companies offering fully remote for a while. However, the point is majority of folks are going to be heading back to the office, at least part time, very soon. And the total pool of fully remote workers will be going down from the peak of Covid. How much this affects RE in San Diego, is debatable, but it is not a positive.

Not every employee or engineer can act like an entitled baby and just quit and move to another company because they don’t get their 100% remote gig anymore. That only works now, if at all, because the job market is so tight due to all of the Fed money printing. If/when the Fed turns off the spigot, there will be a recession and the job market will not be tight anymore.

[sdrealtor]

Please let us know when your rent goes down

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=deadzone]Problem is if there is layoffs at Shopify or whatever it will be due to after effects of market crash and recession from the bursting of the bubble. So in that scenario most of the industry will be laying off.

Back to the original comment, sure there will probably some companies offering fully remote for a while. However, the point is majority of folks are going to be heading back to the office, at least part time, very soon. And the total pool of fully remote workers will be going down from the peak of Covid. How much this affects RE in San Diego, is debatable, but it is not a positive.

Not every employee or engineer can act like an entitled baby and just quit and move to another company because they don’t get their 100% remote gig anymore. That only works now, if at all, because the job market is so tight due to all of the Fed money printing. If/when the Fed turns off the spigot, there will be a recession and the job market will not be tight anymore.[/quote]

IMO recessions are no longer allowed,

They will just send more helicopter money.

Only problem is there is no good way to flush out excesses so they just grow and grow.

[Anonymous]

That has been true since 2009. However, with 7% inflation they cannot get away with dropping anymore helicopter money. I think we see the Fed is actually allowing a crash/recession this time. However, ultimately no doubt they will make sure the banks are bailed out as usual.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]That has been true since 2009. However, with 7% inflation they cannot get away with dropping anymore helicopter money. I HOPE we see the Fed is actually allowing a crash/recession this time. However, ultimately no doubt they will make sure the banks are bailed out as usual.[/quote]

FIFY

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]That has been true since 2009. However, with 7% inflation they cannot get away with dropping anymore helicopter money. I HOPE we see the Fed is actually allowing a crash/recession this time. However, ultimately no doubt they will make sure the banks are bailed out as usual.[/quote]

FIFY[/quote]

My hope has nothing to do with it. Fed can’t print money forever. Sooner or later there has to be a crash in order to have another rescue and re-inflate the next bubble. That’s how bubble economies work. TPTB (i.e. WS bankers) control when the crash happens. Whether this is THE crash or not is yet to be determined, but there will be a crash.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]That has been true since 2009. However, with 7% inflation they cannot get away with dropping anymore helicopter money. I HOPE we see the Fed is actually allowing a crash/recession this time. However, ultimately no doubt they will make sure the banks are bailed out as usual.[/quote]

FIFY[/quote]

My hope has nothing to do with it. Fed can’t print money forever. Sooner or later there has to be a crash in order to have another rescue and re-inflate the next bubble. That’s how bubble economies work. TPTB (i.e. WS bankers) control when the crash happens. Whether this is THE crash or not is yet to be determined, but there will be a crash.[/quote]

Bookmarked

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Problem is if there is layoffs at Shopify or whatever it will be due to after effects of market crash and recession from the bursting of the bubble. So in that scenario most of the industry will be laying off.

Back to the original comment, sure there will probably some companies offering fully remote for a while. However, the point is majority of folks are going to be heading back to the office, at least part time, very soon. And the total pool of fully remote workers will be going down from the peak of Covid. How much this affects RE in San Diego, is debatable, but it is not a positive.

Not every employee or engineer can act like an entitled baby and just quit and move to another company because they don’t get their 100% remote gig anymore. That only works now, if at all, because the job market is so tight due to all of the Fed money printing. If/when the Fed turns off the spigot, there will be a recession and the job market will not be tight anymore.[/quote]

For every company laying off there are a bunch of VC funded new companies. Nothing has changed really. Shopify even doesn’t have a major footprint in CA. Also a bad example, Shopify has been routinely hiring and firing well before their latest wall street numbers. It’s part of their “culture”…

Shopify actually IS one of the companies that count on remote workers to get around the high cost of employee Bay Area employees.Because they know they can’t compete with the FANG companies for talent with deeper pockets.

https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Employee-Review-Shopify-RVW41454067.htm

Besides, given their large customer base, there’s plenty of contracting and consulting work and offshoot products built on top of shopify . It’s not just the company it’s the entire ecosystem of developers and talent to support all the large customer install base. Similar to what Salesforce.com did.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]Problem is if there is layoffs at Shopify or whatever it will be due to after effects of market crash and recession from the bursting of the bubble. So in that scenario most of the industry will be laying off.

Back to the original comment, sure there will probably some companies offering fully remote for a while. However, the point is majority of folks are going to be heading back to the office, at least part time, very soon. And the total pool of fully remote workers will be going down from the peak of Covid. How much this affects RE in San Diego, is debatable, but it is not a positive.

Not every employee or engineer can act like an entitled baby and just quit and move to another company because they don’t get their 100% remote gig anymore. That only works now, if at all, because the job market is so tight due to all of the Fed money printing. If/when the Fed turns off the spigot, there will be a recession and the job market will not be tight anymore.[/quote]

For every company laying off there are a bunch of VC funded new companies. Nothing has changed really. Shopify even doesn’t have a major footprint in CA. Also a bad example, Shopify has been routinely hiring and firing well before their latest wall street numbers. It’s part of their “culture”…

Shopify actually IS one of the companies that count on remote workers to get around the high cost of employee Bay Area employees.Because they know they can’t compete with the FANG companies for talent with deeper pockets.

https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Employee-Review-Shopify-RVW41454067.htm

Besides, given their large customer base, there’s plenty of contracting and consulting work and offshoot products built on top of shopify . It’s not just the company it’s the entire ecosystem of developers and talent to support all the large customer install base. Similar to what Salesforce.com did.[/quote]

So when Fed turns off the spigot, there will be an overall recession and tech will be hit very hard. Less jobs industry wide. San Diego and everywhere. Remote and office. At this point, employees will have a lot less leverage to “Demand” that they be allowed to work at home.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]Problem is if there is layoffs at Shopify or whatever it will be due to after effects of market crash and recession from the bursting of the bubble. So in that scenario most of the industry will be laying off.

Back to the original comment, sure there will probably some companies offering fully remote for a while. However, the point is majority of folks are going to be heading back to the office, at least part time, very soon. And the total pool of fully remote workers will be going down from the peak of Covid. How much this affects RE in San Diego, is debatable, but it is not a positive.

Not every employee or engineer can act like an entitled baby and just quit and move to another company because they don’t get their 100% remote gig anymore. That only works now, if at all, because the job market is so tight due to all of the Fed money printing. If/when the Fed turns off the spigot, there will be a recession and the job market will not be tight anymore.[/quote]

For every company laying off there are a bunch of VC funded new companies. Nothing has changed really. Shopify even doesn’t have a major footprint in CA. Also a bad example, Shopify has been routinely hiring and firing well before their latest wall street numbers. It’s part of their “culture”…

Shopify actually IS one of the companies that count on remote workers to get around the high cost of employee Bay Area employees.Because they know they can’t compete with the FANG companies for talent with deeper pockets.

https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Employee-Review-Shopify-RVW41454067.htm

Besides, given their large customer base, there’s plenty of contracting and consulting work and offshoot products built on top of shopify . It’s not just the company it’s the entire ecosystem of developers and talent to support all the large customer install base. Similar to what Salesforce.com did.[/quote]

So when Fed turns off the spigot, there will be an overall recession and tech will be hit very hard. Less jobs industry wide. San Diego and everywhere. Remote and office. At this point, employees will have a lot less leverage to “Demand” that they be allowed to work at home.[/quote]

It really depends. So many retail and entertainment companies are scrambling to reinvent themselves. That won’t slow down because for them it’s sink or swim for them. I’m in this space and our business has been growing during the pandemic. Other companies larger players have taken out low interest loans and using it to invest in their business. My company did something like that. As far as our business is concerned, we have remote workers because we need personnel closer to where our customers are than a central office. It’s easier for them to be onsite to do work that feeds into the product than having them travel back and forth between our Florida office. Hiring someone from Florida and having them spend 60% of their time as engineers on a plane is going to accelerate their resignation than hiring someone in LA next to our clients and allowing them to work remotely and be onsite…same could be said for our clients in the Midwest and Southern states. Also applies to our UK and Aussie customers…In fact now that work remote is more acceptable, there’s no need to restrict remote workers just to field engineers and support engineers and sales… It’s possible now to embed mobile engineers and platform engineers that work on the main product in these strategic locations more easily and as a result run a more integrated team from beginning to end…lots of benefits doing that too, because it reduces the traditional problem of product engineers being out of touch with real customer needs and issues…

Again, unless you are in management and have weighed some of these pros and cons, you won’t know why some of these decisions are made and you’re basing your opinions based on news articles you read that has very little to do with real business problems companies are solving.

[Anonymous]

Your reasoning for why some remote workers makes sense, and it has nothing to do with Covid. My point is the great majority of things went to extreme levels due to covid. One is remote work, the other main change is the Fed printed over 4 trillion dollars and doubled their balance sheet in 2 years.

With Covid winding down, there will be less Fed support and less folks working 100% from home, overall. You just keep giving niche examples. I never claimed that work at home will completely go away after Covid. But it will go down significantly. It has been publicly announced by several of the major Tech companies. Are you claiming they are lying? What insider knowledge do you have at Amazon and Google that I don’t have? Just because your company isn’t requiring people to work at the office doesn’t change that.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Your reasoning for why some remote workers makes sense, and it has nothing to do with Covid. My point is the great majority of things went to extreme levels due to covid. One is remote work, the other main change is the Fed printed over 4 trillion dollars and doubled their balance sheet in 2 years.

With Covid winding down, there will be less Fed support and less folks working 100% from home, overall. You just keep giving niche examples. I never claimed that work at home will completely go away after Covid. But it will go down significantly. It has been publicly announced by several of the major Tech companies. Are you claiming they are lying? What insider knowledge do you have at Amazon and Google that I don’t have? Just because your company isn’t requiring people to work at the office doesn’t change that.[/quote]

I didn’t say that covid was the cause of all remote workers to begin with. But now that covid has proven that remote workers are viable, businesses are seriously considering using remote workers because it’s been proven by many companies that it can be implemented successfully.

That’s the point. The cat is out of the bag. My company was already remote friendly before covid, and simply extended that as an option…But other companies that were hesitant before and saw the results, many are going to continue that.

Previously, most companies were hesitant even consider remote workers as an option because there was the concern about productivity, reliability, etc. Covid forced some of these companies to do this in order to keep running.

Many (not all companies) have figured out it works well for them and even when covid is no longer going to be an issue, they will continue with a remote friendly policy. Some companies will do old school and revert back in office only.. And some employees that are either scared or take offense to that will have the opportunity to switch employers, if their skills/abilities/etc are in demand.

Honestly, Google and Amazon prefer in office, but given how well they pay (better than MSFT), given their comp packages, I’d pour coffee for them if I could get in. Amazon is a little unique in that you don’t really get much before 3 years. If you can survive for 3 years though, that’s serious $$$$…In both cases though, they have enough satellite offices that an employee prospect just has to report to “a” field office. And I’m pretty sure for the right candidate best of the best, they will still make exceptions than the norm…In San Diego, that’s totally possible because like I said Google, Amazon, Apple all have a sizeable presence here now…

The other thing you are discounting is the issues with the supply chain and the now uncertainty of war….Onshoring is now making a comeback where at least in the hardware sector, companies are now compelling to onshore Fab and moving away from China and even Taiwan (or at least second source stuff domestically)… I mean, Taiwan will still be a leader with TSM, but they too are setting up shop here in the US because given the political instability right now in China, there’s a vested interest and a national security interest to bring some of this work back into the US. And given that we have inflation, perhaps that US wages now can justify having some of this manufacturing done in the US again. While companies like Intel never able to let US chip fab workers work remotely to begin with, they are expanding their footprint by now spinning up Fabs in the US for that reason. TSM and Samsung doing the same thing…

These manufacturing jobs won’t be available in CA, but elsewhere in the US, it’s good news.

Intel in Ohio:
https://www.jobsohio.com/intelinohio/?gclid=CjwKCAiA9tyQBhAIEiwA6tdCrL9OqumazgSlVdITKG5Lh5k_u_TZkB0ivQbf7ZNuAtmEhIc2G5GH9BoCYUcQAvD_BwE

TSM in Arizona:
https://www.extremetech.com/electronics/317329-tsmc-will-open-3-5-billion-semiconductor-fab-in-arizona

Samsung in Texas:
https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-new-advanced-semiconductor-fab-site-in-taylor-texas

America wins.

Long term.. Political instability is probably good for the US…US has the unique privilege of being worlds away from Europe and Asia, where the geo-political instability is happening. Just like in WW1 and WW2, continental US was shielded from main conflict…Seems to me, that US is a safe bet right now to expand to fix the supply chain issue, especially with inflation, that can justify higher wages to do it here.

The serious consideration is if a company spends a fortune to setup more FAB in Taiwan, what if China overruns it like Russia did with Ukraine? From a national security interest, it makes sense to invest in the US.

Work is coming home. And as long as there is hardware work, software work will follow and all the ancillary support technology that comes with it.

[sdrealtor]

Just some data to ponder over. I have been tracking 2 markets this year.

Mira Mesa has a population of about 85,000. There have been 33 houses placed on the market this year most of which are in same price range.

The NCC area I follow has about 125,000. THere have been 82 houses placed on the market of which about half are basically trophy properties above $2.5M so about 40 that would be purchased by typical working folks living in the area.

Long time owners are locked into mortgages with rates in the mid 2% range with a low prop 13 tax basis and many are sitting on gains above the capital gain exclusion level. THere is no major relief in supply coming anytime soon no matter what happens with the economy. My mortage plus taxes, insurance and hoa is less than the rent on a 1 BR Apartment around here now. I am not unique here.

It doesnt take everyone in a WFH job to buy the 5 to 10 regular homes that hit the market each week in either of these areas. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things but no good thing ever dies

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]Just some data to ponder over. I have been tracking 2 markets this year.

Mira Mesa has a population of about 85,000. There have been 33 houses placed on the market this year most of which are in same price range.

The NCC area I follow has about 125,000. THere have been 82 houses placed on the market of which about half are basically trophy properties above $2.5M so about 40 that would be purchased by typical working folks living in the area.

Long time owners are locked into mortgages with rates in the mid 2% range with a low prop 13 tax basis and many are sitting on gains above the capital gain exclusion level. THere is no major relief in supply coming anytime soon no matter what happens with the economy. My mortage plus taxes, insurance and hoa is less than the rent on a 1 BR Apartment around here now. I am not unique here.

It doesnt take everyone in a WFH job to buy the 5 to 10 regular homes that hit the market each week in either of these areas. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things but no good thing ever dies[/quote]

Longer term owners are pretty close to debt free or at least have rental income that covers said low interest 30 year loans.

[sdrealtor]

Yes that too. If I rented my place out it would be cash flow positive by almost $4K even with a loan

[Coronita]

[quote=an][quote=Coronita]Well anecdotal story… I have a friend who works at a small biotech company. She’s on the administrative staff and they and support were all told to go back to the office starting next week…

However all the scientists and researchers…They are allowed to work remotely indefinitely.

Now this might seem a bit unfair, because it is. But you know why the company did this, right?

The company views the administrative staff as easily replaceable so they get treated like crap. And their philosophy is well if you quit go ahead we’ll just find a replacement.

However, when it comes to the scientist and engineers. It seems like they don’t want to fvck with them, because I guess if they said the same thing, the scientist and engineers would just walk across the street to a competitor.

Go figure.[/quote]
Yep. Also, for every 1 big company that make their employee goes back to work, there are a few not as big that are going fully remote. Here are some:
Stripe, Shopify, Twilio, Jobot, CloudApp, Slack, Meta, SalesForce etc.

Even Amazon is still advertising for remote positions on LinkedIn.

Also, good luck to the companies who try to tell their engineers to go back to the office after they have already moved. I doubt they’ll fire them lol.[/quote]

I have intel at what goes on at Qualcomm on this very issue and it’s very comical.

so you have some folks who are very concerned who think going back to the office everyone should wear masks and show proof of vaccination….

Then you have a bunch of people who refuse to wear masks and refuses to vaccinate citing individual rights..

Then you have the first group say fine if that’s the case segment the workplace.somthst unvaccinated and in masked people occupy one part of the offices and the vaccinated masking people occupy the other.

Then the unvaccinated unmasked people claimed this would be discrimination because bases on whether someone was masked or not and citing Hippa privacy for someone’s vaccination status….

Then you have the vaccinated group expressing concern that about having in person meetings and what if they get sick….and is the company going to be liable for creating an unsafe work environment….

So then as a mediation it was proposed that meetings in office be conducted via video conference….which imho would defeat the entire purpose of returning back to work in person….

I think when it’s all said and done, what’s going to happen is what my employer picked. Hybrid model… Those that want to go into an office can do so… Those that don’t want to don’t.

And hiring for engineers will continue to be open for remote “for the right candidate”, where the requirements for interview go up for that flexibility..where you end up having sort of an engineer’s caste system. In which your cream of the crop techies get what they want and those that aren’t that good wash out in the interview process. Lol, I’m one of these people that wash out in some interviews.

That’s how I’ve been getting approached lately my the big 3… Microsoft, Google, Facebook have all been pinging me about work and their time has definitely changed. Because in the past I said I can’t relocate and the convos would stop there, but these days the recruiters are saying we are remote friendly for the right candidate. I guess if they are willing to spend that much on an employee they really want , letting them work remote is the least of their concerns. I mean shit for some of these companies, they are saying take 4 weeks to study for an interview and send you a guide or recommend an interview prep company. No different than at SAT prep class. Lol…that’s pretty intense….if I was younger I might have motivated to study and go through with the interview.

Personally, I miss going into an office, but that’s me.

[Balboa]

[quote=Coronita]

Well anecdotal story… I have a friend who works at a small biotech company. She’s on the administrative staff and they and support were all told to go back to the office starting next week…

However all the scientists and researchers…They are allowed to work remotely indefinitely.

Now this might seem a bit unfair, because it is. But you know why the company did this, right?

The company views the administrative staff as easily replaceable so they get treated like crap. And their philosophy is well if you quit go ahead we’ll just find a replacement.

However, when it comes to the scientist and engineers. It seems like they don’t want to fvck with them, because I guess if they said the same thing, the scientist and engineers would just walk across the street to a competitor.

Go figure.[/quote]

My employer provides tech-adjacent professional services and anyone who has agency and is aware of it is deciding for themselves whether to come back now that we’re “open” — I’ve been in a few days over the last two weeks and opposite me is a row of empty window offices. The lights are off and everybody’s home.

On the staff side, the standard is 3 days in the office, two from home. But if you look at the departments that are the worst to work in, it’s a different story. An entire high visibility/high responsibility/low status/low pay department is now 100% WFH as a Band-Aid for problems that can really only be solved by spending more money on people (and refraining from f*cking up vital systems via irreversible “upgrades” designed by people who don’t use said systems).

My org is experiencing challenges with recruitment and retention on both the professional and staff sides, though. All of our main competitors have offices within a mile of us/the ocean, which doesn’t help.

[Coronita]

[quote= deadzone ] [quote=Coronita]But you aren’t a tech worker deadzone. How would you know what the prevailing pulse of this situation is???[/quote]

All the big silicon valley companies such as Amazon, Google, etc. were originally planning to bring back their folks to the office 3 days/week back in January. That got delayed due to Omicron. Now that Covid is finished they are going to be resuming these plans soon.

Bottom line the majority of tech workers, or white collar workers in general, are not going to be able to work fully remote forever. They hybrid/flex schedule will hopefully stay for long term but the number of people working fully remote from home will be drastically going down from here on out, not increasing.[/quote]

But again, you’re just reading articles and not even in tech. You are basing your assumptions on what some companies do. For every company that says they aren’t going back to work, there’s plenty of companies that are offering remote options because it’s cheaper then setting up a satellite office that the big companies are able to do..

For your really bad example, this won’t make a dent in San Diego housing because Amazon is expanding huge in San Diego. Ask all the Intuit employees that recently quit and went over to Amazon….People who were old timers I thought would never leave Intuit went there.

Google also has expanded their footprint down here with their chip group and also their acquisition of Fitbit.

Apple too. They have their chip group and connectivity down here.

Also VC funding down here for biotech outpaced bay area.

So these big companies that ask people to go back , going back means reporting to a local field office which they have…

As far as the other smaller companies…if they want to retain employees they either have to pay more than these bigger company IRS (which most cant) OR provide more non comp benefits. Or get stuck with employees that are not so in demand….

Some of the comp packages that are being thrown around are like $300k+….LinkedIn is offering around $210k base, excluding stock and bonus and 401k match… for Android seniors… Remote. I mean you have to deal with awful react native in addition to Android, which might be why, but still….

Shit, at $300kish for a senior, I was tempted to apply if I was still pretty hands on. Less stress comparable comps versus working at a small company with a larger role.

[img_assist|nid=27522|title=linked|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500]

IOS Senior Engineer
And any job with the requisition number 69 has got to be a winner

[img_assist|nid=27523|title=linkedin2|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500]

I’ve been hearing some pretty ridiculous sign on bonuses too from that Redmond company.

My company for instance, can’t compete on dollar alone. Senior at my company are around $165k. And that’s actually pretty good for a company in Florida.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=deadzone]
Just another ominous sign for the housing market along with rapidly rising interest rates. [/quote]

I seriously doubt if remote work has driven the housing market much. If it had, then for every area that went up, another would have gone down. But that didn’t happen. Prices are up everywhere. (Well, okay a bit of a drop in St. Georges Utah, but let’s not quibble about details.)

So claiming the end of remote work is going to kill the housing market doesn’t make any sense. If you really want to claim that, you’ve got to provide some data that shows the recent surge in prices is in fact the result of tech workers moving from SV to other places like San Diego. And sorry, but just because some people say that’s what has happened, doesn’t make it so. Show real data that the recent growth in prices is the result of tech workers moving out of SV if you want to make this claim.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=deadzone]
Just another ominous sign for the housing market along with rapidly rising interest rates. [/quote]

I seriously doubt if remote work has driven the housing market much. If it had, then for every area that went up, another would have gone down. But that didn’t happen. Prices are up everywhere. (Well, okay a bit of a drop in St. Georges Utah, but let’s not quibble about details.)

So claiming the end of remote work is going to kill the housing market doesn’t make any sense. If you really want to claim that, you’ve got to provide some data that shows the recent surge in prices is in fact the result of tech workers moving from SV to other places like San Diego. And sorry, but just because some people say that’s what has happened, doesn’t make it so. Show real data that the recent growth in prices is the result of tech workers moving out of SV if you want to make this claim.[/quote]

Gonna stick this here hoping someday we get an update to compare this to

https://fox5sandiego.com/news/local-news/metros-sending-the-most-people-to-san-diego/amp/

[Anonymous]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=deadzone]
Just another ominous sign for the housing market along with rapidly rising interest rates. [/quote]

I seriously doubt if remote work has driven the housing market much. If it had, then for every area that went up, another would have gone down. But that didn’t happen. Prices are up everywhere. (Well, okay a bit of a drop in St. Georges Utah, but let’s not quibble about details.)

So claiming the end of remote work is going to kill the housing market doesn’t make any sense. If you really want to claim that, you’ve got to provide some data that shows the recent surge in prices is in fact the result of tech workers moving from SV to other places like San Diego. And sorry, but just because some people say that’s what has happened, doesn’t make it so. Show real data that the recent growth in prices is the result of tech workers moving out of SV if you want to make this claim.[/quote]

Of course the Federal Reserve QE is the primary driver for the overall housing (and everything) bubble. The Fed pulling back their support is what is going to ultimately pop the bubble. And based on the stock market action so far this year, it looks like that bubble may already be leaking air pretty bad.

But there was a lot of debate relating to why certain cities, were outpacing others. A significant driver for some cities, many have claimed, is high paid tech workers moving to desirable cities (like San Diego) and working totally remote. I personally always thought that was overblown. But regardless of how big of a factor that was/is in our local RE economy, the effect is going to be reversing itself when companies call their employees back to the office.

[Anonymous]

In my opinion a much bigger factor that will hurt the local and national housing market is the fact that the stock market (and Tech stocks especially) are absolutely shitting the bed. A great deal of wealth in recent years is due to stock options and appreciation. And a lot of (temporary) wealth was also created by Bitcoin. Looks like we are in the midst of another tech crash on the scope of the 1999/2000 .com crash. No question that loss of wealth will impact the housing market significantly, at the same time that interest rates are going up. Not a good combination.

[svelte]

It is all going to come down to whether the worker shortage continues.

If it does, then remote work will continue to be strong. it is a no-cost perk companies can provide to entice people they interview. And companies are not going to force their employees back to the office if those employees know the next company over will allow them to work remotely.

If the economy slides so much that layoffs are needed, well remote workers are likely to be in a worse position than in-office workers and may well be among those let go.

Note: since a significant portion of workers who disappeared during the pandemic were older workers who retired, I’m betting the worker shortage continues in the near term. Long term (1 year or more out) who knows.

[Coronita]

Hey deadzone… Can you keep talking about how bad tech will do and how bad the stock market will continue to crash. We need a few more days of this kind of talk from you….

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]Hey deadzone… Can you keep talking about how bad tech will do and how bad the stock market will continue to crash. We need a few more days of this kind of talk from you….[/quote]

Yea really, but more likely today was a relief rally aka dead cat bounce. The downward trend in the market is pretty strong. The Nasdaq still has a long way to retrace just to get to pre-covid numbers. As long as inflation keeps running hot, there likely will be no save from the Fed this time.

Bookmark

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=deadzone]
The Nasdaq still has a long way to retrace just to get to pre-covid numbers.[/quote]

Yeah, that’s true. QQQ’s are probably about $100 above their pre-covid level, so another 30%. SPYs about the same, maybe only 20%. And north country real estate would need to drop more than 30% to get to pre-covid levels I suspect.

Which leads me to wonder, are you predicting that things have another 30% to drop from here, or are you just saying, “Things will go down from here, but anyone who bought stocks or real estate and has held if for over two years will still be ahead.” Curious minds want to know.

[sdrealtor]

SFR’s around me would have to drop at least 40%. During the bubble bust they went down less than 25%. Seems to be saying a singificantly bigger downturn then 2007 to 2011

[Anonymous]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=deadzone]
The Nasdaq still has a long way to retrace just to get to pre-covid numbers.[/quote]

Yeah, that’s true. QQQ’s are probably about $100 above their pre-covid level, so another 30%. SPYs about the same, maybe only 20%. And north country real estate would need to drop more than 30% to get to pre-covid levels I suspect.

Which leads me to wonder, are you predicting that things have another 30% to drop from here, or are you just saying, “Things will go down from here, but anyone who bought stocks or real estate and has held if for over two years will still be ahead.” Curious minds want to know.[/quote]

Well since all Covid related asset price gains, stocks, RE, etc. were completely artificial (Thanks to Fed printing 4 plus trillion dollars) it is a logical assumption they will be reversed at a minimum to pre-Covid levels given all of the Covid related programs will soon be over.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=XBoxBoy][quote=deadzone]
The Nasdaq still has a long way to retrace just to get to pre-covid numbers.[/quote]

Yeah, that’s true. QQQ’s are probably about $100 above their pre-covid level, so another 30%. SPYs about the same, maybe only 20%. And north country real estate would need to drop more than 30% to get to pre-covid levels I suspect.

Which leads me to wonder, are you predicting that things have another 30% to drop from here, or are you just saying, “Things will go down from here, but anyone who bought stocks or real estate and has held if for over two years will still be ahead.” Curious minds want to know.[/quote]

Well since all Covid related asset price gains, stocks, RE, etc. were completely artificial (Thanks to Fed printing 4 plus trillion dollars) it is a logical assumption they will be reversed at a minimum to pre-Covid levels given all of the Covid related programs will soon be over.[/quote]

So just to help people out here…You believe…err…expect with conviction that both stock market and San Diego real estate prices will correct back to pre-covid prices, right?

Can you repeat your conviction of this certainty today?

[Anonymous]

Yes I absolutely believe that, it is logical given the only reason those prices shot up the last two years were due to various Covid policies, most notably Fed money printing, PPP loans, Stimmies, Mortgage and rent moratoriums, historic low interest rates, work from home, etc.

Every one of the above influences has started to reverse and if you believe Covid is over, from a government policy perspective, will continue to reverse or expire.

By far the biggest contributor to this is Fed QE/money printing. So personally I’m not going to bet the farm on anything. They say they are going to raise interest rates starting in March, and also start winding down balance sheet, most notably MBS purchases starting in March. Market seems to believe it so far. But I won’t believe it until it happens.

Fed has proven consistently that their #1 mandate is to inflate stock and RE prices above all else. They realize (correctly) that our economy is totally reliant on wealth effect. Without it, our economy will implode. That’s why they kept up QE constantly since 2009, even though the recovery was complete by about 2013 or so.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Yes I absolutely believe that, it is logical given the only reason those prices shot up the last two years were due to various Covid policies, most notably Fed money printing, PPP loans, Stimmies, Mortgage and rent moratoriums, historic low interest rates, work from home, etc.

Every one of the above influences has started to reverse and if you believe Covid is over, from a government policy perspective, will continue to reverse or expire.

By far the biggest contributor to this is Fed QE/money printing. So personally I’m not going to bet the farm on anything. They say they are going to raise interest rates starting in March, and also start winding down balance sheet, most notably MBS purchases starting in March. Market seems to believe it so far. But I won’t believe it until it happens.

Fed has proven consistently that their #1 mandate is to inflate stock and RE prices above all else. They realize (correctly) that our economy is totally reliant on wealth effect. Without it, our economy will implode. That’s why they kept up QE constantly since 2009, even though the recovery was complete by about 2013 or so.[/quote]

Just wanted to double check again. Do you really think things will crash and burn? Like almost definite? Both the stock market and real estate market? Can we cant your confirmation for this afternoon too?

[Anonymous]

is reverting to pre-covid bubble highs really crashing and burning? Those are your words, not mine.

Nothing is certain in this world. All depends on what the Fed does. They control this 100%.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]is reverting to pre-covid bubble highs really crashing and burning? Those are your words, not mine.

Nothing is certain in this world. All depends on what the Fed does. They control this 100%.[/quote]

But you do think we will see a correction to pre-covid stock market and real estate right?
Can you say this with conviction at exactly at 12:45PST right before closing bell today?

Come on deadzone… Go deadzone!!! Let’s push for +1000 dow by closing bell today.

Please…Say we are definitely going to havea serious correction back to pre-covid letter at 12:45pm. Pretty please.

[Anonymous]

I’m not going to support your day trading habit FLU. Shouldn’t you be at work right now, writing code or something?

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]I’m not going to support your day trading habit FLU.[/quote]

I don’t day trade. But just to clarify, you think the stock market will go significant down, right? Can you say that one more time before closing bell?
We’re pretty close to +1000 dow to day, and you can help push it over…

[quote]
Shouldn’t you be at work right now, writing code or something?
[/quote]

I’m the department head. I don’t need to write code. I have people that do that. I just need to send emails and direct and collect my bigger paycheck…

[img_assist|nid=27527|title=email|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500]
….
…

Shouldn’t you be back in the office, deadzone, working and not wasting time on the internet? I mean, people that work in the office are suppose to be more focused and efficient and not waste time using company resources checking out a finance blog, right?

[Anonymous]

Yes, middle management!
Reminds me of one of my favorite Office Space scenes..

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Yes, middle management!
Reminds me of one of my favorite Office Space scenes..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4OvQIGDg4I%5B/quote%5D

Get back to work, worker bee. Chop chop. Remember, expect your butt to be in your office seat, because we can keep better tabs on you! Worker smarter more efficient!

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]

Shouldn’t you be back in the office, deadzone, working and not wasting time on the internet? I mean, people that work in the office are suppose to be more focused and efficient and not waste time using company resources checking out a finance blog, right?[/quote]

I’m actually not working today so no guilt. That reminds me of another of my favorite Office Space scenes.

I think the remote work revolution, long term, is just going to expose the reality that Office Space pointed out more than 20 years ago. The end game to this is if/when the Fed easy money policy changes, there will be a lot of layoffs and more and more US remote workers replaced by Indians and others.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]

Shouldn’t you be back in the office, deadzone, working and not wasting time on the internet? I mean, people that work in the office are suppose to be more focused and efficient and not waste time using company resources checking out a finance blog, right?[/quote]

I’m actually not working today so no guilt. That reminds me of another of my favorite Office Space scenes.

I think the remote work revolution, long term, is just going to expose the reality that Office Space pointed out more than 20 years ago. The end game to this is if/when the Fed easy money policy changes, there will be a lot of layoffs and more and more US remote workers replaced by Indians and others.[/quote]

Lol, and like Indians, and Romanians, Polish, and Eastern slovik contract engineers don’t slack off….ever…. You definitely must not be in management…lol…

How much is the Dow suppose to fall again? Can I get a quote from you again?

Interesting, why is it every time you are on piggington, you are conveniently also not working???? I think this is the nth time those went hand in hand.

Hmmmmmmm.

[Anonymous]

Let’s fact it, none of us are “working”. Only difference is I’m currently not charging my time to the company or customer.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Let’s fact it, none of us are “working”. Only difference is I’m currently not charging my time to the company or customer.[/quote]

I’m not an hourly worker, so I don’t know what you mean by “charging my time to a company or customer…” That would be unethical.

Are you an hourly person? If so, then I totally understand people might be concerned for wanting you to work in the office so they monitor you and make sure every hour you or your agency charges you are actually doing something. Yes, that probably makes much more sense for hourly paid workers…

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]

Shouldn’t you be back in the office, deadzone, working and not wasting time on the internet? I mean, people that work in the office are suppose to be more focused and efficient and not waste time using company resources checking out a finance blog, right?[/quote]

I’m actually not working today so no guilt. That reminds me of another of my favorite Office Space scenes.

I think the remote work revolution, long term, is just going to expose the reality that Office Space pointed out more than 20 years ago. The end game to this is if/when the Fed easy money policy changes, there will be a lot of layoffs and more and more US remote workers replaced by Indians and others.[/quote]

Lol, and like Indians, and Romanians, Polish, and Eastern slovik contract engineers don’t slack off….ever…. You definitely must not be in management…lol…

How much is the Dow suppose to fall again? Can I get a quote from you again?

Interesting, why is it every time you are on piggington, you are conveniently also not working???? I think this is the nth time those went hand in hand.

Hmmmmmmm.[/quote]

Yes but those foreign workers charge a lot less money to slack off.

[sdrealtor]

You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert[/quote]
That’s transitory too

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert[/quote]

Is that really your best counter-argument for why home prices won’t correct post-covid?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert[/quote]

Is that really your best counter-argument for why home prices won’t correct post-covid?[/quote]

Nice straw man. Never said anything about them not correcting. It’s one reason they won’t correct as much as you think. There are plenty of others

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert[/quote]

Is that really your best counter-argument for why home prices won’t correct post-covid?[/quote]

Nice straw man. Never said anything about them not correcting. It’s one reason they won’t correct as much as you think. There are plenty of others[/quote]

I don’t have any particular prediction other than pre-covid 2020 values is a logical starting point for correction. Beyond that who knows, some markets will correct more/less than others as you always point out. If Fed pivots again and ignores inflation, who knows what will happen. If I’ve learned anything about investing from the last 13 years, it is don’t fight the Fed.

[Coronita]

Dow only up now 700. Come on Deadzone. Please, try harder. We need that correction prediction soon. Only 19 minutes left before the day close…

Come on, you can do it. Push it over 1000. Need you to post some really negative thing

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]Dow only up now 700. Come on Deadzone. Please, try harder. We need that correction prediction soon. Only 19 minutes left before the day close…

Come on, you can do it. Push it over 1000. Need you to post some really negative thing[/quote]

your stock portfolio must be in very bad shape if you are cheerleading the market this hard!

Anyway, don’t talk to me, talk to J Powell if you need some help. All he has to do is make the following announcement: “due to unexpected geo-political risks, the Federal Reserve has decided to postpone the originally scheduled monetary tightening until a date to be determined”

This statement is what the market is dreaming about right now. Wouldn’t shock me one bit if it actually happens. If so, we will certainly go back to all time highs and your portfolio will be solid again.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]Dow only up now 700. Come on Deadzone. Please, try harder. We need that correction prediction soon. Only 19 minutes left before the day close…

Come on, you can do it. Push it over 1000. Need you to post some really negative thing[/quote]

your stock portfolio must be in very bad shape if you are cheerleading the market this hard!

Anyway, don’t talk to me, talk to J Powell if you need some help. All he has to do is make the following announcement: “due to unexpected geo-political risks, the Federal Reserve has decided to postpone the originally scheduled monetary tightening until a date to be determined”

This statement is what the market is dreaming about right now. Wouldn’t shock me one bit if it actually happens. If so, we will certainly go back to all time highs and your portfolio will be solid again.[/quote]

I can’t argue with that. I wish I was doing better this year. I’m down -4.98% Retirement accounts slightly less damage due to a lot less risk.

[img_assist|nid=27528|title=2022|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=300|height=57]

Please help , deadzone!

[sdrealtor]

Now you are moonwalking. You said they have to go back to pre COVID. They don’t and are extremely unlikely too. Here is yet another reason. Real estate values are very sticky on the downward side and it takes a lot of time for them to adjust downward. The passage of time heals a lot of wounds and allows inflation to blunt a lot of what you expect. Lather rinse repeat and rent

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert[/quote]

Is that really your best counter-argument for why home prices won’t correct post-covid?[/quote]

Nice straw man. Never said anything about them not correcting. It’s one reason they won’t correct as much as you think. There are plenty of others[/quote]

I don’t have any particular prediction other than pre-covid 2020 values is a logical starting point for correction. Beyond that who knows, some markets will correct more/less than others as you always point out. If Fed pivots again and ignores inflation, who knows what will happen. If I’ve learned anything about investing from the last 13 years, it is don’t fight the Fed.[/quote]

What I was talking about last year that you said I was making up. Carlsbad has highest appreciation and even more Meaningful as one of the highest cost markets. Everything was going up everywhere just here faster

https://fox5sandiego.com/news/business/cities-with-the-most-expensive-homes-in-san-diego-metro-area/?fbclid=IwAR2c7HWl2rD-gAqn_o7_a7ffr8TqYLq0A_6jvNLbXSi9ShX6M4tbifjS4Ig

[Anonymous]

No surprise, now Google announcing return to the office. Obviously Google and Amazon are the leaders of the Tech industry, the rest of the industry is going to fall in line with them.

Sure there will be some niche workers who continue to remote work forever, and small companies like FLU’s where the logistically it makes more sense to remote work perhaps. But from macro scale, the reality is majority of workers are going to have to come in to the office, at least part time.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]No surprise, now Google announcing return to the office. Obviously Google and Amazon are the leaders of the Tech industry, the rest of the industry is going to fall in line with them.

Sure there will be some niche workers who continue to remote work forever, and small companies like FLU’s where the logistically it makes more sense to remote work perhaps. But from macro scale, the reality is majority of workers are going to have to come in to the office, at least part time.[/quote]

Google was already an in-person only office anyway. That hasn’t changed from day 1. They never had a plan to allow remote work permanent. There’s no difference.

Microsoft on the other hand did decide to accept remote workers, for the right candidate, as several recruiters have explained to me. There’s a reason for that too. They are trying to lead by example that their tech lends itself to remote work, which is why they are massively expanding their Teams platform..

Is the stock market and tech and housing market still going to crash? We need another boost today 🙂

[Anonymous]

Obviously a massive amount of Google employees have been working exclusively at home since Covid, just like most other companies. Now many are going to go back to the office.

Bottom line, the number of folks working exclusively from home, will be a fraction of the folks compared to during Covid.

I’m not predicting a crash. Just a correction, to pre-Covid levels, which would still be epically overpriced based on historical averages.

[JPJones]

[quote=deadzone]No surprise, now Google announcing return to the office. Obviously Google and Amazon are the leaders of the Tech industry, the rest of the industry is going to fall in line with them.

Sure there will be some niche workers who continue to remote work forever, and small companies like FLU’s where the logistically it makes more sense to remote work perhaps. But from macro scale, the reality is majority of workers are going to have to come in to the office, at least part time.[/quote]

This is the 3rd time Google has announced a return to the office in the past 10 months. I’m sure they mean it this time, though!

[Anonymous]

Looks like they mean it this time. Either way, return to work is going to happen, sooner or later. It is as inevitable as the sun rising.

[JPJones]

[quote=deadzone]Looks like they mean it this time. Either way, return to work is going to happen, sooner or later. It is as inevitable as the sun rising.[/quote]

Sure, but when? It’s gets kicked around here a lot that predicting the market means getting your timing right. So what timing are you committing to? Or are you just saying ‘someday!’?

[Anonymous]

[quote=JPJones][quote=deadzone]Looks like they mean it this time. Either way, return to work is going to happen, sooner or later. It is as inevitable as the sun rising.[/quote]

Sure, but when? It’s gets kicked around here a lot that predicting the market means getting your timing right. So what timing are you committing to? Or are you just saying ‘someday!’?[/quote]

April seems to be the current goalpost. I don’t expect them to move this time, Covid is over.

[JPJones]

[quote=deadzone][quote=JPJones][quote=deadzone]Looks like they mean it this time. Either way, return to work is going to happen, sooner or later. It is as inevitable as the sun rising.[/quote]

Sure, but when? It’s gets kicked around here a lot that predicting the market means getting your timing right. So what timing are you committing to? Or are you just saying ‘someday!’?[/quote]

April seems to be the current goalpost. I don’t expect them to move this time, Covid is over.[/quote]

They’ve already given themselves and out by saying “most workers”. I bet Google backpedals from their current ‘in office 3 days/week’ position by the April 4th deadline. Winner gets bragging rights.

[Anonymous]

All the big companies are going back to the office to some degree or another. Just because you don’t agree with it, or your little po-dunk companies are fully remote, doesn’t change that fact.

[sdrealtor]

Im as wealthy as Jeff Bezos to some degree or another.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]All the big companies are going back to the office to some degree or another. Just because you don’t agree with it, or your little po-dunk companies are fully remote, doesn’t change that fact.[/quote]

Lol, you keep debating yourself. No one ever said all companies would stay remote forever. But just because some companies (which tend to be the big companies) have some hybrid work model (which the ones that have announced are hybrid… 2-3 days in office), doesn’t change the fact that there are still many companies that are remote first. Many of them are public companies like mine with 500+ employees.

Also, going into the office in a hybrid model for these companies means “reporting to any location”. For practical purposes, most of these larger companies already have presence here in SD and LA in addition to Bay Area. So if you’re expecting a mass exodus from san diego tech workers to make housing more affordable… Good luck there…

[JPJones]

[quote=deadzone]All the big companies are going back to the office to some degree or another. Just because you don’t agree with it, or your little po-dunk companies are fully remote, doesn’t change that fact.[/quote]

So is that a no or…?

[an]

[quote=deadzone]All the big companies are going back to the office to some degree or another. Just because you don’t agree with it, or your little po-dunk companies are fully remote, doesn’t change that fact.[/quote]
I guess Meta is not big.

Twilio with 5-10k employees is not big. Twitter with 1-5k employees is not big. ZenDesk with 1-5k employee is not big, SquareSpace with 1-5k employee is not big, Oracle with 10k+ employees is not big, DocuSign with 5-10k employee is not big, VMWare with 10k+ employees is not big, I can go on and on. You can easily do a search on LinkedIn for Director Of Engineering and filter for only Remote (LinkedIn have this filter now, shows you where the demand is at) and you’ll see 40 pages of jobs open today that’s 100% remote.

[sdrealtor]

And every company that says they are going back will allow exceptions. Lots of exceptions. Google/Amazon guy with millions in the bank who loves his job, doesnt need to work but says if you make me go back Im done. What do you think Google/Amazon management gonna say to that?

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]All the big companies are going back to the office to some degree or another. Just because you don’t agree with it, or your little po-dunk companies are fully remote, doesn’t change that fact.[/quote]
I guess Meta is not big.

Twilio with 5-10k employees is not big. Twitter with 1-5k employees is not big. ZenDesk with 1-5k employee is not big, SquareSpace with 1-5k employee is not big, Oracle with 10k+ employees is not big, DocuSign with 5-10k employee is not big, VMWare with 10k+ employees is not big, I can go on and on. You can easily do a search on LinkedIn for Director Of Engineering and filter for only Remote (LinkedIn have this filter now, shows you where the demand is at) and you’ll see 40 pages of jobs open today that’s 100% remote.[/quote]

So you are cherry picking here it would seem. Also are you claiming that all of these companies are 100% remote permanently? If so, have they all sold off their office space that existed pre-Covid? I’ll believe a company is going full remote when they dump all of their office space.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]
So you are cherry picking here it would seem. Also are you claiming that all of these companies are 100% remote permanently? If so, have they all sold off their office space that existed pre-Covid? I’ll believe a company is going full remote when they dump all of their office space.[/quote]
Not cherry picking, just going down the list of companies on the first page. Do you think they’ll hire a bunch of remote people only to fire them a few weeks/months later because they won’t relocate?

Life is not black and white and I never said all. like sdr said, there will be a lot of exceptions. The office environment is not going back to pre-covid. Things have changed and will continue to evolve as different companies find their new culture.

[sdrealtor]

One thing or rather someone hasn’t changed

[JPJones]

Hey slight tangent, do any of you watch commercial real estate? Relevant to this topic, I’ve had a decent number of friends and former colleagues mention their companies either sold or let their office leases expire to go permanently remote.

I think even the big kids won’t have a huge amount of success going back to how it was pre-covid. Employers are seeing entire teams threatening to resign when push comes to shove, and everyone in my wide circle of IT contacts that wanted to work from home permanently has either had their employer agree to it in writing, or have found another job that is 100% remote and paid more. Working remote is considered part of the overall compensation package now as well, and as long as employees have an edge, we won’t see a much of a swing back to in-office work being mandatory.

I worked in IT for 20 years up until 2017 and have never seen the job market this hot, not even during the .dot bubble. My wife decided to shop last fall and had 5 offers with better compensation in writing within the first 2 weeks, all 100% remote, and she never even got around to updating her portfolio. This has been par for the course with everyone I know working in any capacity of IT for the past year, roughly. Even if the market crashes and we head into a recession, I’m not convinced the worker shortage would even be simply offset or less.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=JPJones]Hey slight tangent, do any of you watch commercial real estate? Relevant to this topic, I’ve had a decent number of friends and former colleagues mention their companies either sold or let their office leases expire to go permanently remote.

I think even the big kids won’t have a huge amount of success going back to how it was pre-covid. Employers are seeing entire teams threatening to resign when push comes to shove, and everyone in my wide circle of IT contacts that wanted to work from home permanently has either had their employer agree to it in writing, or have found another job that is 100% remote and paid more. Working remote is considered part of the overall compensation package now as well, and as long as employees have an edge, we won’t see a much of a swing back to in-office work being mandatory.

I worked in IT for 20 years up until 2017 and have never seen the job market this hot, not even during the .dot bubble. My wife decided to shop last fall and had 5 offers with better compensation in writing within the first 2 weeks, all 100% remote, and she never even got around to updating her portfolio. This has been par for the course with everyone I know working in any capacity of IT for the past year, roughly. Even if the market crashes and we head into a recession, I’m not convinced the worker shortage would even be simply offset or less.[/quote]

I Get reports from one of the big players in commercial. Just got 2022 office outlook for 46 US markets. PM me if you want a copy

[Anonymous]

[quote=JPJones]

I think even the big kids won’t have a huge amount of success going back to how it was pre-covid. Employers are seeing entire teams threatening to resign when push comes to shove, and everyone in my wide circle of IT contacts that wanted to work from home permanently has either had their employer agree to it in writing, or have found another job that is 100% remote and paid more. Working remote is considered part of the overall compensation package now as well, and as long as employees have an edge, we won’t see a much of a swing back to in-office work being mandatory.

I worked in IT for 20 years up until 2017 and have never seen the job market this hot, not even during the .dot bubble. My wife decided to shop last fall and had 5 offers with better compensation in writing within the first 2 weeks, all 100% remote, and she never even got around to updating her portfolio. This has been par for the course with everyone I know working in any capacity of IT for the past year, roughly. Even if the market crashes and we head into a recession, I’m not convinced the worker shortage would even be simply offset or less.[/quote]

If the market crashes, there will be a lot less tech jobs. So worker shortage problem will be solved.
You can thank the Fed for the fact that the job market is so hot, when they print 4 trillion dollars in the span of 2 years, there’s a lot of money laying around to purchase iphones and associated apps. Without the Fed’s money spigot, there will be less demand for all of these products and many jobs/companies will disappear into the ether.

[an]

[quote=JPJones]Hey slight tangent, do any of you watch commercial real estate? Relevant to this topic, I’ve had a decent number of friends and former colleagues mention their companies either sold or let their office leases expire to go permanently remote.[/quote]My old company went fully remote mid 2020 and never looked back. Sub-leased their office and have grown dramatically over the last year and a half. With their work force everywhere in the world now AND several people I know who still work there have moved to other city/state, I don’t see them changing course and firing anyone.

[JPJones]

[quote=an][quote=JPJones]Hey slight tangent, do any of you watch commercial real estate? Relevant to this topic, I’ve had a decent number of friends and former colleagues mention their companies either sold or let their office leases expire to go permanently remote.[/quote]My old company went fully remote mid 2020 and never looked back. Sub-leased their office and have grown dramatically over the last year and a half. With their work force everywhere in the world now AND several people I know who still work there have moved to other city/state, I don’t see them changing course and firing anyone.[/quote]

Same with my wife’s old company. The counterpoint to deadzone’s claim that ‘they’ll just hire from India now’ is that she’s now working for an Australian company, so that door swings both ways. My personal feeling from the tech industry in general is most businesses are now wise to the loss in quality and productivity that comes from hiring from cheaper countries, and they’re hiring practices have changed accordingly.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]Hey deadzone… Can you keep talking about how bad tech will do and how bad the stock market will continue to crash. We need a few more days of this kind of talk from you….[/quote]

Netflix continuing to plummet already back to Pre-covid price. All the Covid gains evaporated.
Only a matter of time before they start announcing layoffs, if they aren’t already. This is the .com bust all over again. But only this time it is going to spread to the entire economy.

Mortgage rates also returning to pre-covid level and only going to keep going higher.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]Hey deadzone… Can you keep talking about how bad tech will do and how bad the stock market will continue to crash. We need a few more days of this kind of talk from you….[/quote]

Netflix continuing to plummet already back to Pre-covid price. All the Covid gains evaporated.
Only a matter of time before they start announcing layoffs, if they aren’t already. This is the .com bust all over again. But only this time it is going to spread to the entire economy.

Mortgage rates also returning to pre-covid level and only going to keep going higher.[/quote]

You keep talking about 1 stock. Netflix. Big deal.. I don’t own netflix lol….

Gold is back to $1958 and Oil is down. Your point? lol

[Anonymous]

And facebook. What is that, 2/5 of FAANG already corrected to pre-covid. Only a matter of time before Apple and Alphabet follow.
And more relevant to housing industry, Zillow, Redfin and Open Door all collapsing to pre-covid levels or all time lows in case of open.

Go ahead and ignore all of this just because you don’t personally own these stocks doesn’t change the fact that a collapse is happening.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]And facebook. What is that, 2/5 of FAANG already corrected to pre-covid. Only a matter of time before Apple and Alphabet follow.
And more relevant to housing industry, Zillow, Redfin and Open Door all collapsing to pre-covid levels or all time lows in case of open.

Go ahead and ignore all of this just because you don’t personally own these stocks doesn’t change the fact that a collapse is happening.[/quote]

Lol. I don’t own facebook either… My dad does when it was $30/share I think. I don’t generally hold individual stocks that my parents own and vice versa.

You’re picking and choosing your winners and losers based on current market price. A danger game of being more wrong that right. no one can “guess” that accurately over a long period of time.

The only 3 techs I own individually are TSM and AMD and Intel, and it’s less than 10% of my total holdings. not really material one way or the other lol. I’m not too worried about it because there’s still a massive chip shortage and it’s getting worse, even more so now that Shenzhen and Changchun are shutdown….Good news for US engineers and manufacturing in the long run. Inflation can actually support US tech wages that previously went overseas..

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-outbreak-shuts-down-some-china-factories-including-apple-supplier-11647246503

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]And facebook. What is that, 2/5 of FAANG already corrected to pre-covid. Only a matter of time before Apple and Alphabet follow.
And more relevant to housing industry, Zillow, Redfin and Open Door all collapsing to pre-covid levels or all time lows in case of open.

Go ahead and ignore all of this just because you don’t personally own these stocks doesn’t change the fact that a collapse is happening.[/quote]

I hope you are right. Ive got a house to build and the money to do so. I would love to at a discount

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]And facebook. What is that, 2/5 of FAANG already corrected to pre-covid. Only a matter of time before Apple and Alphabet follow.
And more relevant to housing industry, Zillow, Redfin and Open Door all collapsing to pre-covid levels or all time lows in case of open.

Go ahead and ignore all of this just because you don’t personally own these stocks doesn’t change the fact that a collapse is happening.[/quote]

I hope you are right. Ive got a house to build and the money to do so. I would love to at a discount[/quote]

Or just roll the dice and put all your money into Netflix

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]And facebook. What is that, 2/5 of FAANG already corrected to pre-covid. Only a matter of time before Apple and Alphabet follow.
And more relevant to housing industry, Zillow, Redfin and Open Door all collapsing to pre-covid levels or all time lows in case of open.

Go ahead and ignore all of this just because you don’t personally own these stocks doesn’t change the fact that a collapse is happening.[/quote]

I hope you are right. Ive got a house to build and the money to do so. I would love to at a discount[/quote]

Or just roll the dice and put all your money into Netflix[/quote]

Smart money doesnt put all their money or hopes on one thing whether its a single stock or a market correction

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]And facebook. What is that, 2/5 of FAANG already corrected to pre-covid. Only a matter of time before Apple and Alphabet follow.
And more relevant to housing industry, Zillow, Redfin and Open Door all collapsing to pre-covid levels or all time lows in case of open.

Go ahead and ignore all of this just because you don’t personally own these stocks doesn’t change the fact that a collapse is happening.[/quote]

I hope you are right. Ive got a house to build and the money to do so. I would love to at a discount[/quote]
Me too, I would love to see a repeat of 2008 where lending, labor and material cost is dirt cheap.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]And facebook. What is that, 2/5 of FAANG already corrected to pre-covid. Only a matter of time before Apple and Alphabet follow.
And more relevant to housing industry, Zillow, Redfin and Open Door all collapsing to pre-covid levels or all time lows in case of open.

Go ahead and ignore all of this just because you don’t personally own these stocks doesn’t change the fact that a collapse is happening.[/quote]

I hope you are right. Ive got a house to build and the money to do so. I would love to at a discount[/quote]
Me too, I would love to see a repeat of 2008 where lending, labor and material cost is dirt cheap.[/quote]

yes now you guys are getting it, Deflation is awesome.
I look forward to the return of the 5 for 5$ deal at Petco park. 2009/2010 timeframe, Padres games were great back then.

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]And facebook. What is that, 2/5 of FAANG already corrected to pre-covid. Only a matter of time before Apple and Alphabet follow.
And more relevant to housing industry, Zillow, Redfin and Open Door all collapsing to pre-covid levels or all time lows in case of open.

Go ahead and ignore all of this just because you don’t personally own these stocks doesn’t change the fact that a collapse is happening.[/quote]

I hope you are right. Ive got a house to build and the money to do so. I would love to at a discount[/quote]
Me too, I would love to see a repeat of 2008 where lending, labor and material cost is dirt cheap.[/quote]

yes now you guys are getting it, Deflation is awesome.
I look forward to the return of the 5 for 5$ deal at Petco park. 2009/2010 timeframe, Padres games were great back then.[/quote]
LoL, what are you talking about? I took advantage of the last great recession and have been taking advantage of the current crazy inflation as well. Like sdr said, I don’t bet on one direction or another. I’ll be happy if we see a repeat of 2008 and I’ll be happy if we see a repeat of the late 70s. I’m set up to take advantage, regardless of which way it swings.

Inflation is AWESOME too. I’m loving the last couple years of this massive inflation.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an] I don’t bet on one direction or another.[/quote]

You literally just placed a bet that Neflix was going to go higher.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an] I don’t bet on one direction or another.[/quote]

You literally just placed a bet that Neflix was going to go higher.[/quote]

Don’t be an idiot you know he meant as a whole. Of course we put our money down on various things but through hedging we diversify our risk and come out ahead consistently as compared to those sitting on the sidelines whining about missing the opportunity of a lifetime

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an] I don’t bet on one direction or another.[/quote]

You literally just placed a bet that Neflix was going to go higher.[/quote]
If you just read the other post that you responded you, then you would understand.

BTW, how much PUT did you buy over the last few months? You must be killing it over the last few months shorting NFLX and other tech stocks.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=an] I don’t bet on one direction or another.[/quote]

You literally just placed a bet that Neflix was going to go higher.[/quote]
If you just read the other post that you responded you, then you would understand.

BTW, how much PUT did you buy over the last few months?[/quote]

Have net short interest now but I don’t have the balls I had back in 2006.
Shorting Zillow, Zoom, Peloton, etc. during peak of Covid boom was another “opportunity of a lifetime” that I missed.

[sdrealtor]

Always a bridesmaid never the bride

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Always a bridesmaid never the bride[/quote]
LoL

I don’t know what I’m hoping for more, repeat of 2008 or repeat of late 70s. Either way, there will be a lot of pain for a lot of people. So, maybe neither.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=an] I don’t bet on one direction or another.[/quote]

You literally just placed a bet that Neflix was going to go higher.[/quote]
If you just read the other post that you responded you, then you would understand.

BTW, how much PUT did you buy over the last few months?[/quote]

Have net short interest now but I don’t have the balls I had back in 2006.
Shorting Zillow, Zoom, Peloton, etc. during peak of Covid boom was another “opportunity of a lifetime” that I missed.[/quote]

Lol, I don’t think anyonw said buying zillow, zoom, peloton was an opportunity of a lifetime.

I think people said buying real estate during the great recession was an opportunity of a lifetime.
I think people said staying invested in the markets during covid worked well too. I don’t think people are saying specific stocks especially peloton were an opportunity of a lifetime. You keep focusing on speculation on individual stocks. I’m not sure why….

Just like you keep focusing on the news from some individual company and generalizing them to individual trends. Remote work, hybrid work, and now we are back to talking about the stock market…

Someone has an ax to grind, lol…

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an] I don’t bet on one direction or another.[/quote]

You literally just placed a bet that Neflix was going to go higher.[/quote]
Thank you!!!! for bringing my attention to NFLX. Up about 18% in less than 2 days. The question now is, should I sell and capture my 18% gain?

[Coronita]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=an] I don’t bet on one direction or another.[/quote]

You literally just placed a bet that Neflix was going to go higher.[/quote]
Thank you!!!! for bringing my attention to NFLX. Up about 18% in less than 2 days. The question now is, should I sell and capture my 18% gain?[/quote]

yes, sell imho. I’d rather have a smaller capital gains, then a long term capital loss carryover.

18% is way above the 4% rule 🙂

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=an] I don’t bet on one direction or another.[/quote]

You literally just placed a bet that Neflix was going to go higher.[/quote]
Thank you!!!! for bringing my attention to NFLX. Up about 18% in less than 2 days. The question now is, should I sell and capture my 18% gain?[/quote]

So did you sell? NFLX back to about where it started. Or are you going to take advantage of this temporary dip and double down with some more Calls?

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=an] I don’t bet on one direction or another.[/quote]

You literally just placed a bet that Neflix was going to go higher.[/quote]
Thank you!!!! for bringing my attention to NFLX. Up about 18% in less than 2 days. The question now is, should I sell and capture my 18% gain?[/quote]

So did you sell? NFLX back to about where it started. Or are you going to take advantage of this temporary dip and double down with some more Calls?[/quote]
Nope, haven’t sold yet. It’s a 2024 calls, so I have plenty of time. I’m still up $626 (8.9%) so far. Was much higher last week, but I’m still in the green.

[Coronita]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=an] I don’t bet on one direction or another.[/quote]

You literally just placed a bet that Neflix was going to go higher.[/quote]
Thank you!!!! for bringing my attention to NFLX. Up about 18% in less than 2 days. The question now is, should I sell and capture my 18% gain?[/quote]

So did you sell? NFLX back to about where it started. Or are you going to take advantage of this temporary dip and double down with some more Calls?[/quote]
Nope, haven’t sold yet. It’s a 2024 calls, so I have plenty of time. I’m still up $626 (8.9%) so far. Was much higher last week, but I’m still in the green.[/quote]

But that’s not in the money!!! fake news!

[an]

[quote=Coronita]
But that’s not in the money!!! fake news![/quote]
LoL, yes, I’m no longer in the money. But I’m in the green. Is that good enough?

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=Coronita]
But that’s not in the money!!! fake news![/quote]
LoL, yes, I’m no longer in the money. But I’m in the green. Is that good enough?[/quote]

So not going to take advantage of this dip to buy some more?

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=Coronita]
But that’s not in the money!!! fake news![/quote]
LoL, yes, I’m no longer in the money. But I’m in the green. Is that good enough?[/quote]

So not going to take advantage of this dip to buy some more?[/quote]
I’m waiting for the dip that you’re promising me so I can buy another house.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=Coronita]
But that’s not in the money!!! fake news![/quote]
LoL, yes, I’m no longer in the money. But I’m in the green. Is that good enough?[/quote]

NFLX down 20% after hours, most definitely out of the money big time. You can stick a fork in NFLX. Hope you cashed out.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=Coronita]
But that’s not in the money!!! fake news![/quote]
LoL, yes, I’m no longer in the money. But I’m in the green. Is that good enough?[/quote]

NFLX down 20% after hours, most definitely out of the money big time. You can stick a fork in NFLX. Hope you cashed out.[/quote]

While the rest of the market was up massively today. NAIL up over 11% today Though it is nice to see you climb out of the rat hole and provide more fuel for another market rally

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=Coronita]
But that’s not in the money!!! fake news![/quote]
LoL, yes, I’m no longer in the money. But I’m in the green. Is that good enough?[/quote]

NFLX down 20% after hours, most definitely out of the money big time. You can stick a fork in NFLX. Hope you cashed out.[/quote]

While the rest of the market was up massively today. NAIL up over 11% today Though it is nice to see you climb out of the rat hole and provide more fuel for another market rally[/quote]

Who’s talking about NAIL? You don’t own any so what do you care. But pretty sure AN is in the Red on his Nail calls if he even bought it.

Meanwhile NFLX is now down 25% after hours. Cratering would be putting it mildly. Not going to be a good day tomorrow in the markets.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=Coronita]
But that’s not in the money!!! fake news![/quote]
LoL, yes, I’m no longer in the money. But I’m in the green. Is that good enough?[/quote]

NFLX down 20% after hours, most definitely out of the money big time. You can stick a fork in NFLX. Hope you cashed out.[/quote]

While the rest of the market was up massively today. NAIL up over 11% today Though it is nice to see you climb out of the rat hole and provide more fuel for another market rally[/quote]

Who’s talking about NAIL? You don’t own any so what do you care. But pretty sure AN is in the Red on his Nail calls if he even bought it.

Meanwhile NFLX is now down 25% after hours. Cratering would be putting it mildly. Not going to be a good day tomorrow in the markets.[/quote]

Hope you have a nice long term lease with a charitable landlord. I hear St George UT is up and coming

And I do own NAIL which is now back in the green nicely

[Anonymous]

I doubt you own NAIL, but if you do, enjoy it while you can. These fast rising interest rates are not good for homebuilders, stock market, housing market, etc.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]I doubt you own NAIL, but if you do, enjoy it while you can. These fast rising interest rates are not good for homebuilders, stock market, housing market, etc.[/quote]

Why do you doubt me? I always do what I say and I told you I bought it a while ago. Ill probably take a small profit at some time but who knows? Just fun money

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]I doubt you own NAIL, but if you do, enjoy it while you can. These fast rising interest rates are not good for homebuilders, stock market, housing market, etc.[/quote]

Enjoyed it immensely and sold at the open for a very nice gain. Thx

[an]

[quote=deadzone]Who’s talking about NAIL? You don’t own any so what do you care. But pretty sure AN is in the Red on his Nail calls if he even bought it.

Meanwhile NFLX is now down 25% after hours. Cratering would be putting it mildly. Not going to be a good day tomorrow in the markets.[/quote]
Nope, still have both NAIL and NFLX 2024 calls. I’ll probably sell in a year and a half. NAIL calls are up and NFLX calls will be down tomorrow. Expecting my NFLX calls to be down about 40% tomorrow. You win some and you lose some. But they’re all paper win/loss until I sell. That’s what you told me, right?

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]Who’s talking about NAIL? You don’t own any so what do you care. But pretty sure AN is in the Red on his Nail calls if he even bought it.

Meanwhile NFLX is now down 25% after hours. Cratering would be putting it mildly. Not going to be a good day tomorrow in the markets.[/quote]
Nope, still have both NAIL and NFLX 2024 calls. I’ll probably sell in a year and a half. NAIL calls are up and NFLX calls will be down tomorrow. Expecting my NFLX calls to be down about 40% tomorrow. You win some and you lose some. But they’re all paper win/loss until I sell. That’s what you told me, right?[/quote]

In a year and a half, those Calls are most likely going to be worth nothing. So might be better to settle now and take the loss.

[limkotir]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]Who’s talking about NAIL? You don’t own any so what do you care. But pretty sure AN is in the Red on his Nail calls if he even bought it.

Meanwhile NFLX is now down 25% after hours. Cratering would be putting it mildly. Not going to be a good day tomorrow in the markets.[/quote]
Nope, still have both NAIL and NFLX 2024 calls. I’ll probably sell in a year and a half. NAIL calls are up and NFLX calls will be down tomorrow. Expecting my NFLX calls to be down about 40% tomorrow. You win some and you lose some. But they’re all paper win/loss until I sell. That’s what you told me, right?[/quote]

My condolences on your NFLX 2024 call options. Isn’t the theta decay on those options pretty insane, as even if the stock does not move up or down to your in-the-money strike prices? Options are great fun, but I have to have very strong conviction in what I am buying or selling.

[an]

[quote=limkotir]
My condolences on your NFLX 2024 call options. Isn’t the theta decay on those options pretty insane, as even if the stock does not move up or down to your in-the-money strike prices? Options are great fun, but I have to have very strong conviction in what I am buying or selling.[/quote]
No need for condolences. You can’t hit it big if you don’t swing for the fences. It’s my play money, so, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. I’m ready to lose 100% of the $ I use to buy options. As long as I win more than I lose, that’s all that matters.

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]Hey deadzone… Can you keep talking about how bad tech will do and how bad the stock market will continue to crash. We need a few more days of this kind of talk from you….[/quote]

Netflix continuing to plummet already back to Pre-covid price. All the Covid gains evaporated.
Only a matter of time before they start announcing layoffs, if they aren’t already. This is the .com bust all over again. But only this time it is going to spread to the entire economy.

Mortgage rates also returning to pre-covid level and only going to keep going higher.[/quote]
Sounds like a great buying opportunity to me. NFLX in 2019 has revenue of $20b, profit of $1.9b, with profit margin of ~9% and for 2021, revenue was almost $30b, profit was $5.1b, and profit margin of ~17%.

[Coronita]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]Hey deadzone… Can you keep talking about how bad tech will do and how bad the stock market will continue to crash. We need a few more days of this kind of talk from you….[/quote]

Netflix continuing to plummet already back to Pre-covid price. All the Covid gains evaporated.
Only a matter of time before they start announcing layoffs, if they aren’t already. This is the .com bust all over again. But only this time it is going to spread to the entire economy.

Mortgage rates also returning to pre-covid level and only going to keep going higher.[/quote]
Sounds like a great buying opportunity to me. NFLX in 2019 has revenue of $20b with profit margin of ~9% and for 2021, revue was almost $30b and profit margin of ~17%.[/quote]

I just do my bi-monthly DRIP investment into index funds and bond index mostly. I don’t need to take excessive risk these days and I don’t have any major expenses each month so I can put $5500/month into investments and $1500/month into my kids custodial accounts on top of my 401k.

I’ll live with the 4% rule : https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-percent-rule.asp

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]Hey deadzone… Can you keep talking about how bad tech will do and how bad the stock market will continue to crash. We need a few more days of this kind of talk from you….[/quote]

Netflix continuing to plummet already back to Pre-covid price. All the Covid gains evaporated.
Only a matter of time before they start announcing layoffs, if they aren’t already. This is the .com bust all over again. But only this time it is going to spread to the entire economy.

Mortgage rates also returning to pre-covid level and only going to keep going higher.[/quote]
Sounds like a great buying opportunity to me. NFLX in 2019 has revenue of $20b, profit of $1.9b, with profit margin of ~9% and for 2021, revenue was almost $30b, profit was $5.1b, and profit margin of ~17%.[/quote]

Then go ahead and buy Netflix right now, what are you waiting for. Opportunity of a lifetime!

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]Hey deadzone… Can you keep talking about how bad tech will do and how bad the stock market will continue to crash. We need a few more days of this kind of talk from you….[/quote]

Netflix continuing to plummet already back to Pre-covid price. All the Covid gains evaporated.
Only a matter of time before they start announcing layoffs, if they aren’t already. This is the .com bust all over again. But only this time it is going to spread to the entire economy.

Mortgage rates also returning to pre-covid level and only going to keep going higher.[/quote]
Sounds like a great buying opportunity to me. NFLX in 2019 has revenue of $20b, profit of $1.9b, with profit margin of ~9% and for 2021, revenue was almost $30b, profit was $5.1b, and profit margin of ~17%.[/quote]

Then go ahead and buy Netflix right now, what are you waiting for. Opportunity of a lifetime![/quote]
Done

[Coronita]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]Hey deadzone… Can you keep talking about how bad tech will do and how bad the stock market will continue to crash. We need a few more days of this kind of talk from you….[/quote]

Netflix continuing to plummet already back to Pre-covid price. All the Covid gains evaporated.
Only a matter of time before they start announcing layoffs, if they aren’t already. This is the .com bust all over again. But only this time it is going to spread to the entire economy.

Mortgage rates also returning to pre-covid level and only going to keep going higher.[/quote]
Sounds like a great buying opportunity to me. NFLX in 2019 has revenue of $20b, profit of $1.9b, with profit margin of ~9% and for 2021, revenue was almost $30b, profit was $5.1b, and profit margin of ~17%.[/quote]

Then go ahead and buy Netflix right now, what are you waiting for. Opportunity of a lifetime![/quote]
Done[/quote]

You’re brave 🙂

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]
Then go ahead and buy Netflix right now, what are you waiting for. Opportunity of a lifetime![/quote]
Done[/quote]

You’re brave :)[/quote]

Okay we’ll revisit this later in the year and see how you did.
I did a lot of dip buying tech stocks back in 2000. It didn’t work out well for me.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]Okay we’ll revisit this later in the year and see how you did.
I did a lot of dip buying tech stocks back in 2000. It didn’t work out well for me.[/quote]
I bought Jan 2024 call, so I have almost 2 years to capture my gain.

[Anonymous]

What is the strike price?

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]Okay we’ll revisit this later in the year and see how you did.
I did a lot of dip buying tech stocks back in 2000. It didn’t work out well for me.[/quote]
I bought Jan 2024 call, so I have almost 2 years to capture my gain.[/quote]

Strike price?

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]Okay we’ll revisit this later in the year and see how you did.
I did a lot of dip buying tech stocks back in 2000. It didn’t work out well for me.[/quote]
I bought Jan 2024 call, so I have almost 2 years to capture my gain.[/quote]

Strike price?[/quote]
360

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]
Then go ahead and buy Netflix right now, what are you waiting for. Opportunity of a lifetime![/quote]
Done[/quote]

[quote=deadzone]

Okay we’ll revisit this later in the year and see how you did.
I did a lot of dip buying tech stocks back in 2000. It didn’t work out well for me.[/quote]

Re-visited, just a few weeks later

[Coronita]

Damn, deadzone, you’ll need to be more negative at closing on monday. We only inched an extra 100pt on dow.. We fell short of the +1000 dow gain in one day.

Let’s try again on Monday!

[The-Shoveler]

IMO I don’t think I will see another USA recession in my lifetime.

Or at least the next 8-10 years.

[Coronita]

Man someone has really bad sour grapes and crow for breakfast. Desperately needing people to lose their job and housing crash in order to not feel getting left behind. UmOk..

I’m certainly glad that I don’t have to regularlypay $5 a gallon for gas in order to go to work every single day at an office. I can now get through 2.5 months without filling up. I can drive each car for about 3 weeks but at the end of 2.5 months I have to fill up five cars lol

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]Man someone has really bad sour grapes and crow for breakfast. Desperately needing people to lose their job and housing crash in order to not feel getting left behind. UmOk..

I’m certainly glad that I don’t have to regularlypay $5 a gallon for gas in order to go to work every single day at an office. I can now get through 2.5 months without filling up. I can drive each car for about 3 weeks but at the end of 2.5 months I have to fill up five cars lol[/quote]

Obviously nearly everyone would prefer to work at home. But you can’t always get what you want.

Of course remote work will be more common than before Covid. But during Covid nearly every white collar worker in the US worked remote. That is going to reverse itself to a large extent.

Again, show me examples of large companies selling off all their office space and property and I’ll believe they are going fully remote permanently.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]Man someone has really bad sour grapes and crow for breakfast. Desperately needing people to lose their job and housing crash in order to not feel getting left behind. UmOk..

I’m certainly glad that I don’t have to regularlypay $5 a gallon for gas in order to go to work every single day at an office. I can now get through 2.5 months without filling up. I can drive each car for about 3 weeks but at the end of 2.5 months I have to fill up five cars lol[/quote]

Obviously nearly everyone would prefer to work at home. But you can’t always get what you want.

Of course remote work will be more common than before Covid. But during Covid nearly every white collar worker in the US worked remote. That is going to reverse itself to a large extent.

Again, show me examples of large companies selling off all their office space and property and I’ll believe they are going fully remote permanently.[/quote]

With real estate as valuable as it is why would anyone sell off all their real estate holdings?

But if you try sometime, you just might find you’ll get what you need.

[Coronita]

[quote]

With real estate as valuable as it is why would anyone sell off all their real estate holdings?

But if you try sometime, you just might find you’ll get what you need.[/quote]

To move to Utah I guess. I look at my real estate as my retirement pension.

oh funny story sdr. Remember that tenant that cancelled his lease because he went on vacation for 2 months and didn’t want to pay rent while he was on vacation? He called me yesterday and asked if my place was still available. I was like dude,.I rented it out less than 10 days after you moved out for almost $300/month more, and there were like close 40 applicants… And then he went on a mini rant that he can’t find a anything 1/1 less than $2k/month and that single rooms in houses were going for $1500/month…. I was kinda dying laughing inside and tempted to say I “told ya so, you idiot, I was trying to talk you out of it for your own good” and rub it in…but I just kept to “well good luck to you finding something
….”

I think if I were to bring each place to current market price for rent, I’d bring in about $10.8k/month , which a few years ago I would not have thought would be possible without purchasing 1+2 more rentals.. but I won’t be greedy and jack up rents unless..the next tenant that doesn’t want to pay for rent when he goes on vacation and moves out over it…lol

Interesting thing that also happened….One of my friends put a MM rental on the market…The rental turned into a bidding war. Where tenant prospects ended up paying above asking for rent. It ended up about $250/month than asking. I hadnt seen that except in the Bay Area rental market. Welcome to Bay Area housing dynamics.

[teaboy]

[quote=deadzone]
Again, show me examples of large companies selling off all their office space and property and I’ll believe they are going fully remote permanently.[/quote]

Yesyesyes.
I have been surprised that commercial real estate has not hit a bigger downturn since the pandemic started. With more online shopping, I had expected to see more stores shut completely. And with more companies leaning in to wfh, I’d expected more offices to close permanently.
It also continues to surprise me to see rush hour as busy as it is (..at least anecdotally on the occasions when I find myself driving somewhere during those times.)

Actually, all this is anecdotal observation, as I haven’t seen much compelling data on commercial real estate that fits my previous (layman) expectations.

tb

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]
Again, show me examples of large companies selling off all their office space and property and I’ll believe they are going fully remote permanently.[/quote]

Um… Most companies don’t own their own offices anymore but….

https://www.globest.com/2021/09/20/san-diego-office-vacancy-heads-up-again/

“San Diego Office Vacancy Heads Up, Again
In the second quarter, office availability grew 30 basis points to 20.7%, the highest since 2011.”

BUT….If you read the article though. life sciences/biotech is one area where there’s huge demand.

And it probably makes sense. Life sciences/biotech usually requires an onsite lab facility. It’s not conducive to work at home…. .

“While tech and life science companies aren’t saving the market, they are driving the bulk of the leasing activity, thanks in large part to venture capital investment. In fact, demand for lab space increased 280% since March 2020 and office demand has already surpassed pre-COVID levels, according to research from JLL. This will likely support most office leasing activity and help to improve the metrics into 2022. According to JLL’s Tim Olson, senior managing director, the demand is driving both leasing and investment activity in the market.”

And we do know that here in San Diego, the investments in life sciences and biotech has been significantly expanding. $2.5 billion invested in San Diego.

https://www.costar.com/article/1595642948/biotech-investment-is-booming-in-san-diego

Here’s another article about how demand for life science facilities is actually in short supply…

Biotech Firms in Hot Race for Space – Demand Outstripping Supply in San Diego, Other Top Markets

“emand for new life sciences space is outpacing speculative construction among the top 12 U.S. life sciences hubs, including San Diego, according to a new report from CBRE.

Life sciences companies, rapidly expanding amid a race for new drug development, collectively sought nearly 23.8 million square feet of new laboratory space in those markets in the third quarter.

That exceeds the amount of lab space under spec construction – meaning space being built without a tenant already signed – by nearly 2.8 million square feet. The gap has widened steadily since last year – even as construction has ramped up considerably, growth in demand continues to outpace it.

The San Diego research and development lab vacancy rate currently sits at 2.2%, tighter than the Bay Area.”

So perhaps, simply put, none of us understands how the commercial real estate market works. Maybe not all commercial real estate is the same, and some buildings cannot simply be repurposed easily for the in-demand life sciences facilities….

It sure sounds like for SD, remote work friendly or not, that’s not entirely driving demand for housing locally. There might be a component to that. But it sure sounds in addition to that, there’s also a lot of companies setting up shop here in SD now… And maybe what we have is a perfect storm of both factors is why housing is in such short supply (that and builders not building enough)…

Speaking of heavy SD investment….it’s not just life sciences/biotech investments are pouring in….

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2021-10-14/sd-fi-sandiego-venture-capital

“In rare twist, San Diego tech startups outmuscle life science firms for top money deals”

I mean, let’s think about this. When that new MM 3Roots community started taking waitlists for new home buyers, there were 14k+ people on a waitlist for 200 homes, and that’s before they stopped taking additional people on the wait list….

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2021-05-19/why-14-000-people-are-interested-in-these-200-new-san-diego-homes

Think about that… That’s a 70:1 ratio….
How bad does the real estate market have to get to knock off demand when it’s a 70:1 ratio

[sdrealtor]

The vacant office space in SD is predominantly downtown. Suburban office space is doing much better

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]The vacant office space in SD is predominantly downtown. Suburban office space is doing much better[/quote]

I’m guessing most of us don’t understand how commercial RE works…

It’s not a simple, well a lot more people are working from home, so offices must be closing or vacant….

Sounds to me that there are a lot more jobs here in SD now, whether it’s remote or not remote.

Which is why I don’t understand’s DZ’s facination with some companies are now asking people to return back to the office in San Diego thinking that will cause real estate to crash by itself….

If we did have job growth in SD and a good portion is in life sciences and biotech, then lot more people now earn a lot more in SD….since I don’t know too many biotech scientists that are paid peanuts ..

[sdrealtor]

San Diego’s Office Sector Outperforms Nearby Metros;
Tech-Related Expansions Fuel Recovery

Large-scale leases signal long-term confidence. Contrasting other Southern Califor-
nia markets, office vacancy in San Diego compressed by more than 100 basis points last

year. A bevy of 50,000-square-foot-plus commitments by life-science and tech firms was
largely to credit for the notable improvement in leasing velocity. Highlighting activity
in 2021, Apple inked six agreements for floorplans in UTC and Rancho Bernardo that
together totaled nearly 500,000 square feet. Additionally, medical device companies

Tandem Diabetes Care and Becton, Dickinson and Company agreed to occupy a com-
bined 400,000 square feet in Del Mar Heights. Expectations for office-using job creation

to outpace last year suggests other sizable commitments may await the metro in 2022. As
a result, submarkets outside of Downtown San Diego, where vacancy remains well above
20 percent, may see vacancy rates fall below their long-term averages as sparse deliveries
in these locales steer prospective tenants to existing properties.
Conversion and retenanting prospects support diverse buyer pool. Institutional and
private sales activity strengthened in San Diego last year, coinciding with the return of
positive absorption and greater pricing clarity. Sorrento Mesa and adjacent areas that

are hubs for life-science companies are attracting national investors seeking $20 mil-
lion-plus assets. These submarkets boast sizable inventories of high-end space; however,

larger Class B properties are accounting for the bulk of trades. Candidates for conversion
to lab or R&D space are coveted, as assets that have undergone similar repositioning are
swiftly securing high-profile biotech tenants. Private investors are active in the sub-$10
million space, targeting smaller Class C properties near Balboa Park and Interstate 8 that
have historically been occupied by professional services firms. Assets with upcoming
leasing expirations or notable vacancies are available at low-5 to mid-7 percent returns.

[an]

[quote=Coronita]
I mean, let’s think about this. When that new MM 3Roots community started taking waitlists for new home buyers, there were 14k+ people on a waitlist for 200 homes, and that’s before they stopped taking additional people on the wait list….

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2021-05-19/why-14-000-people-are-interested-in-these-200-new-san-diego-homes

Think about that… That’s a 70:1 ratio….
How bad does the real estate market have to get to knock off demand when it’s a 70:1 ratio[/quote]
When 3Roots first started, Lennar’s biggest model in Alta development started out at low $1m. Then when it gets more concrete, they say starting at $1.3m. Now, it’s going for $1.65m+. All in the span of 6 months. Now, the bigger question is, can you even get pick to buy the place.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]Man someone has really bad sour grapes and crow for breakfast. Desperately needing people to lose their job and housing crash in order to not feel getting left behind. UmOk..

[/quote]

What sour grapes? I just pointed out the obvious, that the majority of office workers that moved remote during Covid, will return to the office when Covid is over. I even provided examples with two of the largest tech companies in the world, Google and Amazon, announcing this fact and certainly there will be more to follow. It seems some of the folks on here don’t like that idea, that’s the sour grapes.

[Coronita]

Day off from work again to post here, dz? Lol…

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]Day off from work again to post here, dz? Lol…[/quote]

I work from home like everyone else, have a lot of free time to Jerk Off.

But based on traffic I’ve noticed on the freeways recently during rush hour, makes me wonder how many folks actually still work from home. When everyone really begins to return to to the office it is going to be a blood bath out there.

[Coronita]

Thanks for sending the report… So what a lot of us has been saying is true….San Diego has significant job growth in tech and life sciences… Not that I doubted it…

[The-Shoveler]

Speaking of getting back to the commute.

Who wants to bet me that new Gas money relief checks (helicopter money) or maybe some no-commute order are coming soon ?

Just kidding sort of.

[Anonymous]

$5 gas doesn’t even phase San Diegans. From what I’ve seen lately, rush hour traffic is near or at pre-covid levels already.

As far as alternate transportation, the Covid cycling boom appears to have fizzled out as expected. But that was all about recreational biking, not commuting.

[Anonymous]

Regarding commercial real estate, since we are focusing on Tech industry in this thread why don’t we watch Qualcomm as a barometer since they are the largest tech company in San Diego.

So what are their plans for bringing employees back to the office? Or if they are seriously going full remote on permanent basis, then they should be jettisoning a lot of their office space. Is this happening? Anyone know?

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Regarding commercial real estate, since we are focusing on Tech industry in this thread why don’t we watch Qualcomm as a barometer since they are the largest tech company in San Diego.

So what are their plans for bringing employees back to the office? Or if they are seriously going full remote on permanent basis, then they should be jettisoning a lot of their office space. Is this happening? Anyone know?[/quote]

It’s hybrid. 2-3 days at work, exceptions can be made. Qualcomm never had plans to go full remote…ever…

Again, you are arguing with yourself here in cirles. Not sure what you are trying to get at.

Are you saying because a bunch of Qualcomm people are going back to the office, the demand for real estate here will suddenly drop off?
If so, that makes no sense.

Whether Qualcomm is going back to the office or not doesn’t matter. Qualcomm is based here SD. so if people need to work in the office, they need a home here SD. If they were working remote, they still need a home here in SD. So how is Qualcomm being fully remote or hybrid or fully on office matter to the local SD housing market?

The only difference would be a employer not based here in San Diego allowing people to work anywhere.Like tenant that signed a 2 year lease. Both are in marketing and work remote. She has to show up every so often to either the satellite office in OldTown or meet quarterly in LA. But other tha that they will stay down here and send their kids to school on DelMarUnified for $5000/month for 2800 sqft versus previously spending $5000/month for a 2/2 apt in Culver City with Culver City schools…
So, there are some transplants.

And there’s a lot of job growth here in SD where new people have new high paid biotech/life sciences job..That also means people need housing.

So why does.a few large companies saying they are doing a hybrid model make a signficant difference in the SD housing demand?

There appears to be 3 different categories of people living and working here and the remote workers is only one of those 3.

BTW: hybird model works if the job is in LA or OC. If one only.needs.to show up for work 1-2 days, so.e people dont mind taking the coaster to OC for example. I had a patent attorney friend that did that years ago…

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]Regarding commercial real estate, since we are focusing on Tech industry in this thread why don’t we watch Qualcomm as a barometer since they are the largest tech company in San Diego.

So what are their plans for bringing employees back to the office? Or if they are seriously going full remote on permanent basis, then they should be jettisoning a lot of their office space. Is this happening? Anyone know?[/quote]

It’s hybrid. 2-3 days at work, exceptions can be made. Qualcomm never had plans to go full remote…ever…

Again, you are arguing with yourself here in cirles. Not sure what you are trying to get at.

Are you saying because a bunch of Qualcomm people are going back to the office, the demand for real estate here will suddenly drop off?
If so, that makes no sense.

Whether Qualcomm is going back to the office or not doesn’t matter. Qualcomm is based here SD. so if people need to work in the office, they need a home here SD. If they were working remote, they still need a home here in SD. So how is Qualcomm being fully remote or hybrid or fully on office matter to the local SD housing market?

The only difference would be a employer not based here in San Diego allowing people to work anywhere.Like tenant that signed a 2 year lease. Both are in marketing and work remote. She has to show up every so often to either the satellite office in OldTown or meet quarterly in LA. But other tha that they will stay down here and send their kids to school on DelMarUnified for $5000/month for 2800 sqft versus previously spending $5000/month for a 2/2 apt in Culver City with Culver City schools…
So, there are some transplants.

And there’s a lot of job growth here in SD where new people have new high paid biotech/life sciences job..That also means people need housing.

So why does.a few large companies saying they are doing a hybrid model make a signficant difference in the SD housing demand?

There appears to be 3 different categories of people living and working here and the remote workers is only one of those 3.

BTW: hybird model works if the job is in LA or OC. If one only.needs.to show up for work 1-2 days, so.e people dont mind taking the coaster to OC for example. I had a patent attorney friend that did that years ago…[/quote]

One of my good friends is full remote at QCOM. Has been for almost two years from east coast. When they initially said no, he said oh ok guess I’ll go find another job. He arranged that before COVID. He lived here over 20 years and wants to live other places. He’ll never move back and can stay there as long as he wants. He does visit his wine at my house every couple months

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]Regarding commercial real estate, since we are focusing on Tech industry in this thread why don’t we watch Qualcomm as a barometer since they are the largest tech company in San Diego.

So what are their plans for bringing employees back to the office? Or if they are seriously going full remote on permanent basis, then they should be jettisoning a lot of their office space. Is this happening? Anyone know?[/quote]

It’s hybrid. 2-3 days at work, exceptions can be made. Qualcomm never had plans to go full remote…ever…

Again, you are arguing with yourself here in cirles. Not sure what you are trying to get at.

Are you saying because a bunch of Qualcomm people are going back to the office, the demand for real estate here will suddenly drop off?
If so, that makes no sense.

Whether Qualcomm is going back to the office or not doesn’t matter. Qualcomm is based here SD. so if people need to work in the office, they need a home here SD. If they were working remote, they still need a home here in SD. So how is Qualcomm being fully remote or hybrid or fully on office matter to the local SD housing market?

The only difference would be a employer not based here in San Diego allowing people to work anywhere.Like tenant that signed a 2 year lease. Both are in marketing and work remote. She has to show up every so often to either the satellite office in OldTown or meet quarterly in LA. But other tha that they will stay down here and send their kids to school on DelMarUnified for $5000/month for 2800 sqft versus previously spending $5000/month for a 2/2 apt in Culver City with Culver City schools…
So, there are some transplants.

And there’s a lot of job growth here in SD where new people have new high paid biotech/life sciences job..That also means people need housing.

So why does.a few large companies saying they are doing a hybrid model make a signficant difference in the SD housing demand?

There appears to be 3 different categories of people living and working here and the remote workers is only one of those 3.

BTW: hybird model works if the job is in LA or OC. If one only.needs.to show up for work 1-2 days, so.e people dont mind taking the coaster to OC for example. I had a patent attorney friend that did that years ago…[/quote]

The only one going around in circles is you FLU. I’m just using Qualcomm as a representative large tech company that happens to be local so we can easily verify their happenings. You guys are the ones arguing that remote work is here stay, and nobody is going back to the office, blah blah blah. Well apparently that is not the case at Qualcomm, Amazon or Google and many, many more companies.

The point is there is not going to be another big wave of workers moving to San Diego or anywhere else to remote work. THat ship has already sailed.

[The-Shoveler]

Not really about San Diegans, But not everyone’s a tech worker either so $5 or possibly $7 Gas would hurt at the margins,

But that besides my point, I Just say TPTB will not allow anything that leads to a recession IMO.

In fact I double dog dare TPTB to not ride to the rescue to prevent a recession.

TPTB I know your out there, do it prove me wrong!!

[Anonymous]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Not really about San Diegans, But not everyone’s a tech worker either so $5 or possibly $7 Gas would hurt at the margins,

But that besides my point, I Just say TPTB will not allow anything that leads to a recession IMO.

In fact I double dog dare TPTB to not ride to the rescue to prevent a recession.[/quote]

But how will they avoid it? The only way to avoid it is for Fed to continue printing. In that case gas could go to $10 a gallon, or $20? or who knows. At this point maybe my gold investments will finally pay off!

But really they need a crash, that’s the only way prices will calm down. Then no matter how bad the crash gets, the bankers will be guaranteed to be bailed out so why do they care if there is a crash? Then Fed just blows up another bubble.

I don’t understand why folks on here think a crash is such a bad thing from the perspective of Wall St. bankers and other elites who basically control the country. They win either way.

[The-Shoveler]

My point, no recession, no way to clear out the excesses.
They just keep growing

[Anonymous]

[quote=The-Shoveler]My point, no recession, no way to clear out the excesses.
They just keep growing[/quote]

So you think the Fed is going to keep expanding their balance sheet? That’s the only way the economy will keep growing. But with 7.5% inflation and $5 gas? Not what they are publicly saying right now but nothing would shock me. I heard Powell yesterday say that he doesn’t believe the balance sheet expansion (the 4+ trillion the Fed printed since Covid) is the cause of inflation. Do you think he really believes this? None of the clueless congressmen yesterday even questioned this claim.

[The-Shoveler]

LOL just saw south park “city people”,

No offence SDR JTR it was definitely on topic for this thread

DZ its just my theory that no recessions are allowed after 2009 when the TPTB discovered helicopter money.

[Anonymous]

[quote=The-Shoveler]LOL just saw south park “city people”,

No offence SDR JTR it was definitely on topic for this thread

DZ its just my theory that no recessions are allowed after 2009 when the TPTB discovered helicopter money.[/quote]

Well it sound great if you can just push the “print” button whenever you want to keep the economy going. But it only works if somehow inflation is under control. That is no longer the case, so something has to give.

[flyer]

Although a valid concern, I agree that if the intent of the post is to determine if San Diego and housing in other desirable locations is suddenly going to collapse because of a change in the working status of tech workers, imo, that’s very unlikely to happen, for all of the reasons that have already been mentioned.

There are definitely many issues that could subdue the current frenzy, and/or even cause some type of correction in real estate markets, but, as an investor, if you’re not over leveraged, that’s not a problem. The demand for housing is coming from many sectors of society, not just one, and, imo, that overall demand will continue to far outweigh the supply for many years to come–we shall see.

[sdrealtor]

Unicorns are real: San Diego startups to watch

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]https://sandiegolifechanging.org/blog/unicorns-are-real-san-diego-startups-to-watch/[/quote]

I didn’t know ShieldAi and Drata are unicorns. Oops. Interesting . I know a couple old colleagues from Carlsbad tech community went to both when they were still in their Series A, some ex-GoPro folks too.

Seismic is also on that list. They’ve been around for some time. I think one of my old neighbors was a founding member ….I forget what they do.

ClickUp was one of the Bay Area startup that moved here to SD.

I think also Kandji is close on this list. They got their Series C round of investment back in November. $100m or something like that. Mac OSX MDM player.

https://kandji.io/product

Kandji pulls in $100M Series C on $800M valuation, up 10x since last year

It will be interesting to see if Apple buys them or squeezes them out. I think the latter since Apple does that to small companies.

Show me.the money.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Coronita][quote=sdrealtor]https://sandiegolifechanging.org/blog/unicorns-are-real-san-diego-startups-to-watch/[/quote]

I didn’t know ShieldAi and Drata are unicorns. Oops. Interesting . I know a couple old colleagues from Carlsbad tech community went to both when they were still in their Series A, some ex-GoPro folks too.

Seismic is also on that list. They’ve been around for some time. I think one of my old neighbors was a founding member ….I forget what they do.

ClickUp was one of the Bay Area startup that moved here to SD.

I think also Kandji is close on this list. They got their Series C round of investment back in November. $100m or something like that. Mac OSX MDM player.

https://kandji.io/product

Kandji pulls in $100M Series C on $800M valuation, up 10x since last year

It will be interesting to see if Apple buys them or squeezes them out. I think the latter since Apple does that to small companies.

Show me.the money.[/quote]

So many forces converging here now. It’s not just the wfh trend. The growth of this place is palpable in ways it’s never been before

[flyer]

Yes, those opportunities are extremely exciting–sons keep me clued in on all investment ops.

With so much growth in San Diego, and so little housing supply, barring extreme effects from black swan events–which seem to be more likely everyday–there’s really no place for real estate to go but up.

Even if there is a correction in real estate from a dramatic change in life as we know it, I think San Diego has a better chance of weathering storms to a greater degree than many locations, so we should all be very glad we’ve taken advantage of these great opportunities before everyone decided to come to the party.

[an]

[quote=Coronita][quote=sdrealtor]https://sandiegolifechanging.org/blog/unicorns-are-real-san-diego-startups-to-watch/[/quote]

I didn’t know ShieldAi and Drata are unicorns. Oops. Interesting . I know a couple old colleagues from Carlsbad tech community went to both when they were still in their Series A, some ex-GoPro folks too.

Seismic is also on that list. They’ve been around for some time. I think one of my old neighbors was a founding member ….I forget what they do.

ClickUp was one of the Bay Area startup that moved here to SD.

I think also Kandji is close on this list. They got their Series C round of investment back in November. $100m or something like that. Mac OSX MDM player.

https://kandji.io/product

Kandji pulls in $100M Series C on $800M valuation, up 10x since last year

It will be interesting to see if Apple buys them or squeezes them out. I think the latter since Apple does that to small companies.

Show me.the money.[/quote]
Yep, Drata is blowing up quick! Their ARR growth is phenomenal. Between them and ClickUp, I think they’ll be big for the San Diego scene. Not to mention Apple, Amazon, and Google are all hiring here with the first 2 is dramatically hiring. I know Amazon is trying to poach from Intuit and Apple from QCOM. Will be fun to watch from the sideline as they push up the SD’s salary band.

[flyer]

Great–and they’ll all need housing–fantastic!

[sdrealtor]

Last year looking at data I thought 10% appreciation was in the bank. We already got it in the first two months though it will take a while for the data showing that to come in. Happy for all of us who got in when they could. Truly the opportunity of a lifetime!

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Last year looking at data I thought 10% appreciation was in the bank. We already got it in the first two months though it will take a while for the data showing that to come in. Happy for all of us who got in when they could. Truly the opportunity of a lifetime![/quote]
Hell yeah! It’s definitely the opportunity of a lifetime. I wish I had bought more between 2009-2014.

[Coronita]

[quote=an][quote=Coronita][quote=sdrealtor]https://sandiegolifechanging.org/blog/unicorns-are-real-san-diego-startups-to-watch/[/quote]

I didn’t know ShieldAi and Drata are unicorns. Oops. Interesting . I know a couple old colleagues from Carlsbad tech community went to both when they were still in their Series A, some ex-GoPro folks too.

Seismic is also on that list. They’ve been around for some time. I think one of my old neighbors was a founding member ….I forget what they do.

ClickUp was one of the Bay Area startup that moved here to SD.

I think also Kandji is close on this list. They got their Series C round of investment back in November. $100m or something like that. Mac OSX MDM player.

https://kandji.io/product

Kandji pulls in $100M Series C on $800M valuation, up 10x since last year

It will be interesting to see if Apple buys them or squeezes them out. I think the latter since Apple does that to small companies.

Show me.the money.[/quote]
Yep, Drata is blowing up quick! Their ARR growth is phenomenal. Between them and ClickUp, I think they’ll be big for the San Diego scene. Not to mention Apple, Amazon, and Google are all hiring here with the first 2 is dramatically hiring. I know Amazon is trying to poach from Intuit and Apple from QCOM. Will be fun to watch from the sideline as they push up the SD’s salary band.[/quote]
….and housing and rental costs…

[Anonymous]

And yet real estate has been and continues to be on fire throughout the US since Covid. In some cities more so than San Diego. This suggests that Covid policy (i.e. Fed money printing) is a far larger influence on this red hot RE market than the so called “unicorn” companies in San Diego. I’m not suggesting that SD isn’t growing and in better position than many other cities. But let’s be realistic here. The Covid market is on fire due to Covid policies.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]And yet real estate has been and continues to be on fire throughout the US since Covid. In some cities more so than San Diego. This suggests that Covid policy (i.e. Fed money printing) is a far larger influence on this red hot RE market than the so called “unicorn” companies in San Diego. I’m not suggesting that SD isn’t growing and in better position than many other cities. But let’s be realistic here. The Covid market is on fire due to Covid policies.[/quote]

So now you’re deflecting and arguing SD housing demand isnt growing due to job expansion despite what reports says about job expansion in SD.

Interesting.

Um ok.

I’m really curious though… If you’re expecting a lot of higher compensated people suddenly are jobless , what makes you think you won’t be and would be in a better financial situation then them.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]And yet real estate has been and continues to be on fire throughout the US since Covid. In some cities more so than San Diego. This suggests that Covid policy (i.e. Fed money printing) is a far larger influence on this red hot RE market than the so called “unicorn” companies in San Diego. I’m not suggesting that SD isn’t growing and in better position than many other cities. But let’s be realistic here. The Covid market is on fire due to Covid policies.[/quote]

So now you’re deflecting and arguing SD housing demand isnt growing due to job expansion despite what reports says about job expansion in SD.

Interesting.

Um ok.

I’m really curious though… If you’re expecting a lot of higher compensated people suddenly are jobless , what makes you think you won’t be and would be in a better financial situation then them.[/quote]

And yet you keep deflecting the fact that RE is on fire all over the country. Do you really believe that San Diego is somehow immune to the bubble bursting? Yet so much of the wealth and RE gains in San Diego are a direct result of the bubble inflating?

[an]

[quote=deadzone]And yet you keep deflecting the fact that RE is on fire all over the country. Do you really believe that San Diego is somehow immune to the bubble bursting? Yet so much of the wealth and RE gains in San Diego are a direct result of the bubble inflating?[/quote]
So, when do you expect this bubble to pop like 2008?

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]And yet you keep deflecting the fact that RE is on fire all over the country. Do you really believe that San Diego is somehow immune to the bubble bursting? Yet so much of the wealth and RE gains in San Diego are a direct result of the bubble inflating?[/quote]
So, when do you expect this bubble to pop like 2008?[/quote]

Who knows when it will pop. But a hell of a lot of signals are pointing to the fact that it is leaking serious oil, right now. If you can’t see them you are blind.

Fed publicly stating since Nov that they will begin tightening their balance sheet and raise interest rates starting in March. Large public RE companies getting absolutely ass pounded in the markets. I tried to point out Zillow but the usual excuses that the problem was isolated to Zillow, as if they don’t know what they are doing. Well obviously that’s bullshit. I told you guys to watch out that their competitors would soon follow. Today Redfin and Opendoor both set 52 week low in the stock market. Investors are sure seeing the end of housing bubble.

So the signals are there and they keep getting stronger.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]And yet you keep deflecting the fact that RE is on fire all over the country. Do you really believe that San Diego is somehow immune to the bubble bursting? Yet so much of the wealth and RE gains in San Diego are a direct result of the bubble inflating?[/quote]
So, when do you expect this bubble to pop like 2008?[/quote]

Who knows when it will pop. But a hell of a lot of signals are pointing to the fact that it is leaking serious oil, right now. If you can’t see them you are blind.

Fed publicly stating since Nov that they will begin tightening their balance sheet and raise interest rates starting in March. Large public RE companies getting absolutely ass pounded in the markets. I tried to point out Zillow but the usual excuses that the problem was isolated to Zillow, as if they don’t know what they are doing. Well obviously that’s bullshit. I told you guys to watch out that their competitors would soon follow. Today Redfin and Opendoor both set 52 week low in the stock market. Investors are sure seeing the end of housing bubble.

So the signals are there and they keep getting stronger.[/quote]

Uh welcome to nasdaq. This isn’t real estate companies it’s every highly leveraged unprofitable growth company (disclosure: I own none of these real estate companies) out there. I took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime to buy quality real estate and great profitable companies at for sale prices. Residential real estate has never been a Wall Street darling. It’sa Main Street darling. Real estate brokerage has never been highly profitable. Owning real estate has been for regular folks like me and y…, oops

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]
Uh welcome to nasdaq. This isn’t real estate companies it’s every highly leveraged unprofitable growth company (disclosure: I own none of these real estate companies) out there. I took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime to buy quality real estate and great profitable companies at for sale prices. Residential real estate has never been a Wall Street darling. It’sa Main Street darling. Real estate brokerage has never been highly profitable. Owning real estate has been for regular folks like me and y…, oops[/quote]

So these ibuyers, big Wall St. investors like Blackrock etc. are not influencing prices of RE? Plus all of the other mom and pop flippers and investors purchasing investment property? Give me a break. Didn’t you learn your lesson in 2008 that RE is susceptible to speculative bubbles? After all of these bubbles in RE you still believe RE is just a Main St business? You can’t possibly be that stupid.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]
Uh welcome to nasdaq. This isn’t real estate companies it’s every highly leveraged unprofitable growth company (disclosure: I own none of these real estate companies) out there. I took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime to buy quality real estate and great profitable companies at for sale prices. Residential real estate has never been a Wall Street darling. It’sa Main Street darling. Real estate brokerage has never been highly profitable. Owning real estate has been for regular folks like me and y…, oops[/quote]

So these ibuyers, big Wall St. investors like Blackrock etc. are not influencing prices of RE? Plus all of the other mom and pop flippers and investors purchasing investment property? Give me a break. Didn’t you learn your lesson in 2008 that RE is susceptible to speculative bubbles? After all of these bubbles in RE you still believe RE is just a Main St business? You can’t possibly be that stupid.[/quote]

I cant speak to the country only here. They bought a small amount of mostly crap at vastly inflated prices. Had they not many of them wouldve gone to flippers. When they tried to sell them at above market prices they sat last year until lowered to FMV. Now that the market has spiked again they are getting bailed out to some extent which is actually IMO an investment opportunity for their stocks. Iv e sold hundreds of homes and have seen exactly how the market operates from street level over and over. You are sitting in a crappy rental praying for divine intervention having missed the greatest opportunity of your lifetime

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]And yet you keep deflecting the fact that RE is on fire all over the country. Do you really believe that San Diego is somehow immune to the bubble bursting? Yet so much of the wealth and RE gains in San Diego are a direct result of the bubble inflating?[/quote]
So, when do you expect this bubble to pop like 2008?[/quote]

Who knows when it will pop. But a hell of a lot of signals are pointing to the fact that it is leaking serious oil, right now. If you can’t see them you are blind.

Fed publicly stating since Nov that they will begin tightening their balance sheet and raise interest rates starting in March. Large public RE companies getting absolutely ass pounded in the markets. I tried to point out Zillow but the usual excuses that the problem was isolated to Zillow, as if they don’t know what they are doing. Well obviously that’s bullshit. I told you guys to watch out that their competitors would soon follow. Today Redfin and Opendoor both set 52 week low in the stock market. Investors are sure seeing the end of housing bubble.

So the signals are there and they keep getting stronger.[/quote]

Who cares. For some there’s little to low mortgage. And for the others they are locked into a historical 30 year between 3-4%….during that 30 years they have the opportunity of arbitraging their money elsewhere while not worrying significantly about higher living costs especially with inflation..it probably would cost them close to the same monthly to rent, if not more. I don’t envy people trying to find a rental close to Sorrento Valley, especially if some of them now need to return back to work in a hybrid model. There’s close no inventory for purchase or rent. And even rentals are ending up in a bidding war. Too bad I can’t convince myself to be a dick landlord or I’d be jacking up rent every year.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]

Who cares. For some there’s little to low mortgage. And for the others they are locked into a historical 30 year between 3-4%….during that 30 years they have the opportunity of arbitraging their money elsewhere while not worrying significantly about higher living costs especially with inflation..it probably would cost them close to the same monthly to rent, if not more. I don’t envy people trying to find a rental close to Sorrento Valley, especially if some of them now need to return back to work in a hybrid model. There’s close no inventory for purchase or rent. And even rentals are ending up in a bidding war. Too bad I can’t convince myself to be a dick landlord or I’d be jacking up rent every year.[/quote]

Outside of your own selfish/greedy interests, don’t you think society would be better off with more affordable housing, less inflation, more affordable education, less reliance on debt, etc.?
SDR is always whining about the current runaway inflation as if it is a bad thing. Well the solution to inflation is to let the bubble pop and market crash/correct.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]

Who cares. For some there’s little to low mortgage. And for the others they are locked into a historical 30 year between 3-4%….during that 30 years they have the opportunity of arbitraging their money elsewhere while not worrying significantly about higher living costs especially with inflation..it probably would cost them close to the same monthly to rent, if not more. I don’t envy people trying to find a rental close to Sorrento Valley, especially if some of them now need to return back to work in a hybrid model. There’s close no inventory for purchase or rent. And even rentals are ending up in a bidding war. Too bad I can’t convince myself to be a dick landlord or I’d be jacking up rent every year.[/quote]

Outside of your own selfish/greedy interests, don’t you think society would be better off with more affordable housing, less inflation, more affordable education, less reliance on debt, etc.?
SDR is always whining about the current runaway inflation as if it is a bad thing. Well the solution to inflation is to let the bubble pop and market crash/correct.[/quote]

There is a difference between recognizing market conditions as unfair to many and taking advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime. Its not selfish or greedy its smart to take advantage of fabulous windfall profits. We cant change the market ourselves. Its not our jobs. Enjoy whining away Ive got a tee time to get to

[flyer]

DZ, I know you feel the position you are taking in these discussions is the right one, and you have made some very good points, but, I sincerely don’t believe you’re ever going to convince others, who hold opposing views, to change their position wrt real estate investment, regardless of how things may change in the future.

It’s true that windfall profits have been made in real estate, and with other investments, but none of us could have known that at the outset. We were just making educated guesses, and, recently, unique societal events, have made many things extraordinary investments–for now–and as with all things in life, anything can happen.

In the final analysis, no one really owns anything in this world, we’re just borrowing everything we have while we’re here, and then, possibly passing those things on to others who will just borrow them for the short time they are here. It’s all transitory, so why worry about it?

Even if you chose not to invest in real estate, you can still enjoy your life in San Diego, which is what we should all be doing each and every day.

[an]

sdr, exactly! There are many things we can’t change and don’t agree with. That doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I’m just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I’m ready!

[Anonymous]

[quote=an]sdr, exactly! There are many things we can’t change and don’t agree with. That doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I’m just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I’m ready![/quote]

That’s the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don’t understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I’m just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]That’s the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don’t understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I’m just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.[/quote]
The country would disagree with you that a crash would be good. Many people were hurt the last time around. The rich people were the ones who were able to take the most advantage of the last crash.

Either way, I’m set up to take full advantage of whether we see a crash or a repeat of 1970s

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an]sdr, exactly! There are many things we can’t change and don’t agree with. That doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I’m just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I’m ready![/quote]

That’s the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don’t understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I’m just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.[/quote]

Lol, just because we don’t agree with you that RE is going to crash for the reasons you say they will, doesn’t mean we are afraid of it crashing. Like I said, we don’t *need* real estate crash in order to have the opportunity to buy.

Bring it.

But since you previously talked about “selfishness”, it’s mightly selfish to wish others would have a financial turmoil just so you would personally benefit from it, after missing out the previous opportunity, right?

But *if* the economy crashes, it would interesting to see who can buy, if everyone ends up jobless..Hypothetically, if the economy crashes, and you end up unemployed DZ, would you have the financial means to buy a home? Because… For the finance turmoil you are hoping for, you are kidding yourself if you think you would magically not be affected…There’s always a financial ladder pecking order. It’s a question of who falls off the ladder first and how long people can hold on before things get better . Just like the real estate meltdown in 2008-9….Those that were properly capitalized then were able to buy then…Not everyone was able to though…Those that were able to hold on, are doing fine now….So…Be careful what you wish for…

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone][quote=an]sdr, exactly! There are many things we can’t change and don’t agree with. That doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I’m just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I’m ready![/quote]

That’s the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don’t understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I’m just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.[/quote]

Lol, just because we don’t agree with you that RE is going to crash for the reasons you say they will, doesn’t mean we are afraid of it crashing. Like I said, we don’t *need* real estate crash in order to have the opportunity to buy.

Bring it.

But since you previously talked about “selfishness”, it’s mightly selfish to wish others would have a financial turmoil just so you would personally benefit from it, after missing out the previous opportunity, right?

But *if* the economy crashes, it would interesting to see who can buy, if everyone ends up jobless..Hypothetically, if the economy crashes, and you end up unemployed DZ, would you have the financial means to buy a home? Because… For the finance turmoil you are hoping for, you are kidding yourself if you think you would magically not be affected…There’s always a financial ladder pecking order. It’s a question of who falls off the ladder first and how long people can hold on before things get better . Just like the real estate meltdown in 2008-9….Those that were properly capitalized then were able to buy then…Not everyone was able to though…Those that were able to hold on, are doing fine now….So…Be careful what you wish for…[/quote]

Good point FLU.I lost count of how many doctors and lawyers I saw move from Carmel Valley/Encinitas/Carlsbad to RSF, DM and LJ during the downturn. They kept their old homes as rentals until things recovered. A bunch I know sold them for more than the trophy homes they bought during the downturn.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an]sdr, exactly! There are many things we can’t change and don’t agree with. That doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I’m just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I’m ready![/quote]

That’s the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don’t understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I’m just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.[/quote]

You called? My ducks are very much in a row and my best years by a very large margin were in downturns. Who said Im not behind it? Im just pragmatic and reporting on what I see out there not what Id wish for

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=an]sdr, exactly! There are many things we can’t change and don’t agree with. That doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I’m just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I’m ready![/quote]

That’s the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don’t understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I’m just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.[/quote]

You called? My ducks are very much in a row and my best years by a very large margin were in downturns. Who said Im not behind it? Im just pragmatic and reporting on what I see out there not what Id wish for[/quote]

And I’m just being pragmatic too. If signs point to a major correction/crash, it is good to accept that and plan for it. Seems like we agree that inflation is out of control and that is not a good thing for the general populace. The only way this inflation is going to get under control is a crash of the current asset bubble. Looks fairly certain that the Fed is going to engineer this crash of the bubble they created.

[sdrealtor]

Once again the passage of time gets dismissed. W dont need a crash to fix this. A moderate correction over several years would take care of it also.

Im fine with whatever and have myself locked in everyway I’ll ever need. Just heard Total Wine is coming to Encinitas. I may consider picking up a p/t gig so I can spend more time talking about wine. Certainly wouldnt do it for the money

[Anonymous]

But yes the general population is screwed either way. Unabated inflation destroys the lower to middle class more than wealthy class. But if the asset markets crash, guess what, the Fed will bail out their wealthy banker friends just like last time, while unemployment goes up for everyone else.

At some point the pitchforks will need to come out. If the us population can get that riled up about the George Floyd incident, imagine what will happen when they realize they can’t afford the latest iphone?

[sdrealtor]

Ok you just keep talking yourself out of doing things while I talk myself into buying more fermented grape juice than I could ever drink in a lifetime

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]Ok you just keep talking yourself out of doing things while I talk myself into buying more fermented grape juice than I could ever drink in a lifetime[/quote]

Not talking myself out of doing anything. You have a one track mind, the entire world doesn’t revolve around investing in real estate. My investments in precious metals are on fire. My baseball cards are up big too. But they will definitely crash hard soon. Don’t care, not giving up my vintage cards.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Ok you just keep talking yourself out of doing things while I talk myself into buying more fermented grape juice than I could ever drink in a lifetime[/quote]

Not talking myself out of doing anything. You have a one track mind, the entire world doesn’t revolve around investing in real estate. My investments in precious metals are on fire. My baseball cards are up big too. But they will definitely crash hard soon. Don’t care, not giving up my vintage cards.[/quote]

Who said anything about RE, Im talking about everything. Ive got “liquid” assets that are up 20X in 5 years too. Good luck selling those cards, the posted prices are very different than what they sell for and unless graded 9 or above you most likely have nice things to look at. Ive got my share as well. But getting back to RE it is the most important hedge one can have in life. No matter what happens costs are fixed, tax treatment is favorable and ya gotta live somewhere. I would counter that anyone w/o at least an 8 figure net worth has not planned well if they arent hedged with RE. It clears the way to focus on everything else with minimal worry

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]

Who said anything about RE, Im talking about everything. Ive got “liquid” assets that are up 20X in 5 years too. Good luck selling those cards, the posted prices are very different than what they sell for and unless graded 9 or above you most likely have nice things to look at. Ive got my share as well. But getting back to RE it is the most important hedge one can have in life. No matter what happens costs are fixed, tax treatment is favorable and ya gotta live somewhere. I would counter that anyone w/o at least an 8 figure net worth has not planned well if they arent hedged with RE. It clears the way to focus on everything else with minimal worry[/quote]

I definitely agree with you regarding RE as a good hedge. But you continue to throw out the tired opportunity of a lifetime line. As if someone’s life is incomplete if they don’t own a tract home in suburban NC San Diego. Sorry, not feeling bad about that. Feeling very good about my gold though.

Disagree to an extent on baseball cards. Absolutely you can sell ungraded cards for a lot of money on ebay. Or if the cards get into the 4+ figure range pay the $50 and get them slabbed. But you apparently didn’t get to the end of my post, I said I’m not going to sell my cards even if they are at great risk of dropping value from here on out.

It is the investors that are ruining the vintage baseball card market just like they’ve ruined the RE market, thanks Fed!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]

Who said anything about RE, Im talking about everything. Ive got “liquid” assets that are up 20X in 5 years too. Good luck selling those cards, the posted prices are very different than what they sell for and unless graded 9 or above you most likely have nice things to look at. Ive got my share as well. But getting back to RE it is the most important hedge one can have in life. No matter what happens costs are fixed, tax treatment is favorable and ya gotta live somewhere. I would counter that anyone w/o at least an 8 figure net worth has not planned well if they arent hedged with RE. It clears the way to focus on everything else with minimal worry[/quote]

I definitely agree with you regarding RE as a good hedge. But you continue to throw out the tired opportunity of a lifetime line. As if someone’s life is incomplete if they don’t own a tract home in suburban NC San Diego. Sorry, not feeling bad about that. Feeling very good about my gold though.

[/quote]

Just over 10 years ago you could buy a house in my hood for $750,000 putting $150,000 down. You would have enjoyed 10 years of stability in a wonderful place. Your PITI would now be about 50% of the current rent. Your principal would now be about $460,000 after paying a monthly amount lower than rent for the home. Your home would be roughly $2M so your equity would have gone from $150K to over $1.5M in about 10 years so thats 10X. You are locked into affordability and have created a good amount of generational wealth for you family. If that isnt the opportunity of a lifetime I dont know what is.

Or 10 years ago you could have bought Gold. It was about $1650. Now its around $2,000. How could you possibly feel good about that?

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]

Just over 10 years ago you could buy a house in my hood for $750,000 putting $150,000 down. You would have enjoyed 10 years of stability in a wonderful place. Your PITI would now be about 50% of the current rent. Your principal would now be about $460,000 after paying a monthly amount lower than rent for the home. Your home would be roughly $2M so your equity would have gone from $150K to over $1.5M in about 10 years so thats 10X. You are locked into affordability and have created a good amount of generational wealth for you family. If that isnt the opportunity of a lifetime I dont know what is.

Or 10 years ago you could have bought Gold. It was about $1650. Now its around $2,000. How could you possibly feel good about that?[/quote]

Sure, I don’t disagree that purchasing RE in 2012 would have been a great investment. Opportunity of a lifetime? A little over-dramatic. I think it is time for you to retire that line.
But for the record, I loaded up on gold in 2009-10 when it was under $1000 an ounce. And more recently I loaded up on Energy stocks when oil was under $70. Opportunity of a lifetime? Nah, but feeling good about it.

[sdrealtor]

Gold was not under $1000 in 2010 and that is more than 10 years and at best 2X not close to the 10X opportunity of a lifetime. Here you go this one up here closed almost exactly 10 years ago to the day on a 1/4 acre lot. In 2011 and 2012 over 50 homes in this neighborhood sold under $800K. Opportunity was everywhere. Zillow is probably about $200K low on the current value and it would easily rent for $6500 now. This one is closer to 13X

https://www.zillow.com/homes/2903-Camino-Serbal-Carlsbad,-CA-92009_rb/16712446_zpid/?

[sdrealtor]

And if you have a better one Im all ears

[Anonymous]

Gold was under $1000 in 2009. And it was a good investment. In hindsight sure RE would have been better investment. But hindsight is 20/20. And frankly I am not and never was interested in being a landlord so it is a moot point and under no circumstances would I have been interested in living in a suburban NC housing tract.

Anyway, the point now is to address the current situation and possible bubble popping. My personal investment decisions 10+ years ago are completely irrelevant to the current situation. Not sure why you insist on bringing that up other than to deflect from your fear of the prospect of a market crash? I really don’t understand why the idea of it bothers you so much.

[an]

I wonder what housing did between 2002-2012 after the .com crash in 2001-2002.

Someone seems to be married to one potential outcome. I personally think we’re more likely to see a repeat of the 70s than 2008. But I’m ready for both.

I agree with sdr that RE was an opportunity of a life time if you had the gut to buy between 2009-2019.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]Gold was under $1000 in 2009. And it was a good investment. In hindsight sure RE would have been better investment. But hindsight is 20/20. And frankly I am not and never was interested in being a landlord so it is a moot point and under no circumstances would I have been interested in living in a suburban NC housing tract.

Anyway, the point now is to address the current situation and possible bubble popping. My personal investment decisions 10+ years ago are completely irrelevant to the current situation. Not sure why you insist on bringing that up other than to deflect from your fear of the prospect of a market crash? I really don’t understand why the idea of it bothers you so much.[/quote]

It doesn’t bother me at all. Why you might ask? Well the Answer is those personal investment decisions made 10-20 years ago that you think are irrelevant and I know are life altering. And you could’ve bought anything anywhere. I only use NC tract houses because that’s where I live. Had you bought anything anywhere here you would’ve capitalized on the opportunity of a lifetime

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]Gold was under $1000 in 2009. And it was a good investment. In hindsight sure RE would have been better investment. But hindsight is 20/20. And frankly I am not and never was interested in being a landlord so it is a moot point and under no circumstances would I have been interested in living in a suburban NC housing tract.

Anyway, the point now is to address the current situation and possible bubble popping. My personal investment decisions 10+ years ago are completely irrelevant to the current situation. Not sure why you insist on bringing that up other than to deflect from your fear of the prospect of a market crash? I really don’t understand why the idea of it bothers you so much.[/quote]

It doesn’t bother me at all. Why you might ask? Well the Answer is those personal investment decisions made 10-20 years ago that you think are irrelevant and I know are life altering. And you could’ve bought anything anywhere. I only use NC tract houses because that’s where I live. Had you bought anything anywhere here you would’ve capitalized on the opportunity of a lifetime[/quote]

Jesus f-ing Christ you are a broken record. The current financial situation in the world has nothing to do with me or any financial decisions I made or did not make. I am one person out of billions. It is just so important for you to make everything personal. It is not about me. The market will crash with or without my cheerleading, just like the bubble was inflated with our without your cheerleading.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Gold was under $1000 in 2009. And it was a good investment. In hindsight sure RE would have been better investment. But hindsight is 20/20. And frankly I am not and never was interested in being a landlord so it is a moot point and under no circumstances would I have been interested in living in a suburban NC housing tract.

Anyway, the point now is to address the current situation and possible bubble popping. My personal investment decisions 10+ years ago are completely irrelevant to the current situation. Not sure why you insist on bringing that up other than to deflect from your fear of the prospect of a market crash? I really don’t understand why the idea of it bothers you so much.[/quote]

It’s really convenient you picked Gold price in 2009 because that doesn’t tell the entire story of gold. Gold was $1000 in the beginning of 2008, dipped as low as $750 and ended 2008 around $800ish. In 2009, it bounced around $1000/ounce throughout 2/3 of 2009 and towards the end of 2009 there was a lot of gold speculation by folks that we running for cover to safety that pushed gold prices at the end of 2009 to $1200/ouce before settling somewhere around $1150…Gold hit peak prices in middle of 2011 around $1900/ounce… But since hitting that peak middle of 2011, gold went into a decline from 2011 to 2016 when it hit $1050/ounce.

Between 2016-2019, gold didn’t do shit. It moved between $1100-$1400/ounce back and forth.

It reached another peak in the middle of 2020, around $2100/ounce before falling back and now hovers around $2000….

You only made sizable gains on gold if you market timed and sold close to the peaks, but holding long term, it hasn’t really done that well relative to everything else…

[img_assist|nid=27533|title=gold|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500]

It’s not really that great of an investment. It’s “safe”, but falls well short of what the stock market and real estate markets did…no doubt about that…. For example, here’s a subset of what prices of 1 ounce bullion was. It’s not that great of an appreciation.

[img_assist|nid=27534|title=gld|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500]

Also, I don’t know about you. But unless you spend money to store your physical gold in an escrow account, it’s a pain in the ass to store it at home….

Also, oil is only good because of the war. It was in decline. You’re market timing…versus people like my parents my parents who had CVX since the time Texaco filed for bankruptcy in 1985 and keep them for the good dividends. Which is a great thing..

[Anonymous]

yes gold is not a convenient investment and really is more of an insurance policy in case the Fed goes totally rogue. That’s in fact why I loaded up on it at that point, because Fed was going rogue in 2009 with QE, bailouts, etc. Well it turns out Fed got away with parabolic money printing for about 12 years. Their run of luck does appear to be running out. You knew it couldn’t last forever.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]yes gold is not a convenient investment and really is more of an insurance policy in case the Fed goes totally rogue. That’s in fact why I loaded up on it at that point, because Fed was going rogue in 2009 with QE, bailouts, etc. Well it turns out Fed got away with parabolic money printing for about 12 years. Their run of luck does appear to be running out. You knew it couldn’t last forever.[/quote]

But gold has not performed well. Gold didn’t perform well up to and and until the Ukraine/Russia war, which was not predictable. In fact, when the fed announced raising interest rates, gold did not really move that much on that news. Gold moved a lot recently based on the Ukraine/Russia war.

So I guess where gold makes sense is when we have more wars???

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]yes gold is not a convenient investment and really is more of an insurance policy in case the Fed goes totally rogue. That’s in fact why I loaded up on it at that point, because Fed was going rogue in 2009 with QE, bailouts, etc. Well it turns out Fed got away with parabolic money printing for about 12 years. Their run of luck does appear to be running out. You knew it couldn’t last forever.[/quote]

But gold has not performed well. Gold didn’t perform well up to and and until the Ukraine/Russia war, which was not predictable. In fact, when the fed announced raising interest rates, gold did not really move that much on that news. Gold moved a lot recently based on the Ukraine/Russia war.

So I guess where gold makes sense is when we have more wars???[/quote]

Well gold wasn’t doing badly before the war.. but it would mostly take off if Fed does NOT raise interest rates. If Fed actually tightens that should hurt gold in theory. But on the other hand, if fed tightens, the stock market will crash and where would people move their money when they pull it out of stocks? Gold could benefit here too. Who knows, but agree overall Gold has been mildly disappointing but like my baseball cards I like having it and I ain’t going to sell it anytime soon.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=deadzone]

And I’m just being pragmatic too. If signs point to a major correction/crash, it is good to accept that and plan for it. Seems like we agree that inflation is out of control and that is not a good thing for the general populace. The only way this inflation is going to get under control is a crash of the current asset bubble. Looks fairly certain that the Fed is going to engineer this crash of the bubble they created.[/quote]

One should consider what happened in the past when inflation was high and observe the impacts on real estate. Consider the decade from ~1972 -1984 which was one of the most significant periods of higher than post-WW2 average inflation.
What happened to home prices during that period ?

Inflation was ultImately tamed through fiscal and monetary policy changes (and perhaps demographic changes) and this period included three recessionary periods.

But what about home prices? Did the asset bubble burst in the correction or was real estate an effective way to survive that inflationary era ?

Median US home price January 1972 = 26,900
Median US home price January 1984 = 65,341

These are nominal dollars. In inflation adjusted terms home prices pretty much tracked inflation.

Source

Historical US Home Prices: Monthly Median from 1953-2022

[img_assist|nid=27532|title=Home price during inflationary period|desc=|link=none|align=left|width=533|height=400]

[Anonymous]

You can’t compare the 70s to today. The current asset bubble and subsequent inflation were caused directly by the Federal Reserve QE policy which has only existed since 2009. This was an experimental policy intended to recover from the 2008 financial crisis (and with real purpose to bail out the bankers and wealthy elite). But they clearly took this QE too far and the entire economy has been addicted to the Fed like a crack whore ever since. Then the Fed went into hyperdrive during Covid when the Fed nearly doubled their balance sheet in less than 2 years

So how is this all going to end? Nobody can say for sure, but comparing this to past historical cycles is impossible because there is no precedent in US history to compare it with since QE didn’t exist during previous bubbles. But we all know full well how speculative bubbles end. There is a rich history in this, and the 2000 .com bubble and 2008 RE bubble are very recent examples.

[sdrealtor]

What you keep passing over is the majority of homeowners sitting on fixed rate mortgages of 3% or lower. Most people would just stay put or rent out their home even if that meant having to rent elsewhere. Even if rents came down (unlikely to any large degree) we have inflated so much homes will cash flow very nicely. Whos gonna give up a 2.5% fixed rate mortgage when rates are 5% or higher? I’ll wait

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]What you keep passing over is the majority of homeowners sitting on fixed rate mortgages of 3% or lower. Most people would just stay put or rent out their home even if that meant having to rent elsewhere. Even if rents came down (unlikely to any large degree) we have inflated so much homes will cash flow very nicely. Whos gonna give up a 2.5% fixed rate mortgage when rates are 5% or higher? I’ll wait[/quote]

Absolutely! The majority of homeowners “should” be fine and be able to weather a major economic downturn. If, and this is a big If, they didn’t over extend themselves by pulling out equity to purchase investment properties and Landrovers. But it sure smells like a lot of folks have been doing this. If not, then there is no reason to fear a market crash/correction/recession. Bring it on!

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=deadzone]You can’t compare the 70s to today. The current asset bubble and subsequent inflation were caused directly by the Federal Reserve QE policy which has only existed since 2009. This was an experimental policy intended to recover from the 2008 financial crisis (and with real purpose to bail out the bankers and wealthy elite). But they clearly took this QE too far and the entire economy has been addicted to the Fed like a crack whore ever since. Then the Fed went into hyperdrive during Covid when the Fed nearly doubled their balance sheet in less than 2 years
[/quote]

I can indeed compare the 1970s to today. (In fact that’s exactly what I did above) In fact some of the monetary levers pulled were much more drastic than QE, such as end of Bretton Woods, effectively eliminating any ties to gold, etc. History doesn’t repeat itself exactly but often it rhymes. Those who ignore it do so at their own peril

[Anonymous]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=deadzone]You can’t compare the 70s to today. The current asset bubble and subsequent inflation were caused directly by the Federal Reserve QE policy which has only existed since 2009. This was an experimental policy intended to recover from the 2008 financial crisis (and with real purpose to bail out the bankers and wealthy elite). But they clearly took this QE too far and the entire economy has been addicted to the Fed like a crack whore ever since. Then the Fed went into hyperdrive during Covid when the Fed nearly doubled their balance sheet in less than 2 years
[/quote]

Sorry, there is nothing in the history of monetary policy that compares what the Fed has done with QE. So if they do in fact reverse course, it will be an absolute blood bath in the markets.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]Sorry, there is nothing in the history of monetary policy that compares what the Fed has done with QE. So if they do in fact reverse course, it will be an absolute blood bath in the markets.[/quote]
I doubt that would happen. So, IMHO, you’re talking about the improbable probability.

[Anonymous]

Well if the Fed does not reverse course, at least my gold will go through the roof in that scenario. But we’ll see within a matter of months, just how well Americans can handle this level of inflation before there is chaos in the streets.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]Well if the Fed does not reverse course, at least my gold will go through the roof in that scenario. But we’ll see within a matter of months, just how well Americans can handle this level of inflation before there is chaos in the streets.[/quote]
Inflation was much worst in the 70s and the American people handled it for many years. We barely just got started.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]Well if the Fed does not reverse course, at least my gold will go through the roof in that scenario. But we’ll see within a matter of months, just how well Americans can handle this level of inflation before there is chaos in the streets.[/quote]
Inflation was much worst in the 70s and the American people handled it for many years. We barely just got started.[/quote]

Yeah and the stock market is already tanking with just a hint of mild interest rate increases on the horizon. Again, nothing even comparable to the 70s.

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]Well if the Fed does not reverse course, at least my gold will go through the roof in that scenario. But we’ll see within a matter of months, just how well Americans can handle this level of inflation before there is chaos in the streets.[/quote]
Inflation was much worst in the 70s and the American people handled it for many years. We barely just got started.[/quote]

Yeah and the stock market is already tanking with just a hint of mild interest rate increases on the horizon. Again, nothing even comparable to the 70s.[/quote]
That’s fine, real estate more than make up for the stock market decline.

[Anonymous]

There is no way stock market crashes without taking RE market with it, and vice versa. Both bubbles were fueled by the same source.

[sdrealtor]

Talking about broken records. Or is that record broken? So you have poorly preforming gold that’s tracked inflation and the baseball cards you bought in the 70s. Your track record Is stunning Larry

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]Talking about broken records. Or is that record broken? So you have poorly preforming gold that’s tracked inflation and the baseball cards you bought in the 70s. Your track record Is stunning Larry[/quote]

Actually I bought most of my vintage cards in 2012/13, mid life crisis thing. So many of those cards have appreciated 4 to 5 times by this point.
Still feeling good about my gold.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Talking about broken records. Or is that record broken? So you have poorly preforming gold that’s tracked inflation and the baseball cards you bought in the 70s. Your track record Is stunning Larry[/quote]

Actually I bought most of my vintage cards in 2012/13, mid life crisis thing. So many of those cards have appreciated 4 to 5 times by this point.
Still feeling good about my gold.[/quote]

I paid a quarter for mine. A quarter per pack but I really bought them for the gum

Might be time to sell that Alcindor RC

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Talking about broken records. Or is that record broken? So you have poorly preforming gold that’s tracked inflation and the baseball cards you bought in the 70s. Your track record Is stunning Larry[/quote]

Actually I bought most of my vintage cards in 2012/13, mid life crisis thing. So many of those cards have appreciated 4 to 5 times by this point.
Still feeling good about my gold.[/quote]

I paid a quarter for mine. A quarter per pack but I really bought them for the gum

Might be time to sell that Alcindor RC[/quote]

Well if you aren’t attached to it, now would be the time to sell it. But that is a pretty sweet card and great nostalgia so of course you obviously shouldn’t and won’t. I am far too young to have collected in the 50s and 60s, but I love that era of cards.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Talking about broken records. Or is that record broken? So you have poorly preforming gold that’s tracked inflation and the baseball cards you bought in the 70s. Your track record Is stunning Larry[/quote]

Actually I bought most of my vintage cards in 2012/13, mid life crisis thing. So many of those cards have appreciated 4 to 5 times by this point.
Still feeling good about my gold.[/quote]

I paid a quarter for mine. A quarter per pack but I really bought them for the gum

Might be time to sell that Alcindor RC[/quote]

Well if you aren’t attached to it, now would be the time to sell it. But that is a pretty sweet card and great nostalgia so of course you obviously shouldn’t and won’t. I am far too young to have collected in the 50s and 60s, but I love that era of cards.[/quote]

I’m not attached to anything besides my kids, my home and my wine

[an]

[quote=deadzone]There is no way stock market crashes without taking RE market with it, and vice versa. Both bubbles were fueled by the same source.[/quote]
History says it’s very possible. Look at the DOW between 76-82 and see what RE price was between those 6 years. Same goes for 99-2003.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]There is no way stock market crashes without taking RE market with it, and vice versa. Both bubbles were fueled by the same source.[/quote]
History says it’s very possible. Look at the DOW between 76-82 and see what RE price was between those 6 years. Same goes for 99-2003.[/quote]

We shall see. But again, those periods were not fueled by 10+ years of continual massive Fed money printing.

[flyer]

I think just about all of us who are in a position to take advantage of a correction, as we have before, would, but I still would not wish or need for that to happen.

There are lots of deep pockets here and around the world, so, if it does happen, it will be ultra competitive among many investors, especially now that San Diego seems to be on the map even more so than in past years.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]

Who cares. For some there’s little to low mortgage. And for the others they are locked into a historical 30 year between 3-4%….during that 30 years they have the opportunity of arbitraging their money elsewhere while not worrying significantly about higher living costs especially with inflation..it probably would cost them close to the same monthly to rent, if not more. I don’t envy people trying to find a rental close to Sorrento Valley, especially if some of them now need to return back to work in a hybrid model. There’s close no inventory for purchase or rent. And even rentals are ending up in a bidding war. Too bad I can’t convince myself to be a dick landlord or I’d be jacking up rent every year.[/quote]

Outside of your own selfish/greedy interests, don’t you think society would be better off with more affordable housing, less inflation, more affordable education, less reliance on debt, etc.?
SDR is always whining about the current runaway inflation as if it is a bad thing. Well the solution to inflation is to let the bubble pop and market crash/correct.[/quote]

Yes, I do think more affordable housing would be nice. but that’s not my problem to solve, that’s government and builders problem. also, Debt is part of our America culture that will never change, but there is a difference between good debt and bad debt imho.

Also, I don’t think their is anything wrong with tech people getting compensated well for the work they do, especially if it encourages more people in this country to spend the time and energy to be in STEMs. And for those that choose not to, that’s also not my problem to solve….the only thing I can do is to support people young and up and coming in my field so they can have better opportunities than we did….so I spend both time and money l, some of my rental income, to support robotics andscience STEM funds. more money than most single corporate grants from 1 large company, that typically only donated a few hundred or low thousand per fund/team…. If it grows the next generation of highly skilled technical people, that’s good for the next generation of youth who will have better opportunity than us, and good for our country who have more qualified domestic workers..

If other people in different professions are getting left behind that’s someone else’s problem to solve.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]And yet you keep deflecting the fact that RE is on fire all over the country. Do you really believe that San Diego is somehow immune to the bubble bursting? Yet so much of the wealth and RE gains in San Diego are a direct result of the bubble inflating?[/quote]

I don’t think there is a bubble. There’s an unfavorable pricing issue for those that chose to sit out buying …. if there is any downturn some people will have a hard time paying their mortgage. But I think there will be plenty of other people to take their place….unless we have a huge meltdown….but then if that happens, I doubt you would be able to take advantage of it since you would probably be unemployed just like everyone else.

[sdrealtor]

SD was on fire before COVID. Has the COVID market had an influence here? Absolutely and no one here has ever said otherwise. What we have been saying all along is that there is a lot going on here. Not one thing but multiple things that have been building for quite some time. That is why so many here hopped onto the opportunity of a lifetime between 2009 and 2012 that are now reaping rich rewards. I spent my morning running around CraneTown and counted a dozen massive cranes working in the Golden Triangle. They aren’t building houses, they are building jobs while others missed out on the opportunity of a lifetime

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]SD was on fire before COVID. Has the COVID market had an influence here? Absolutely and no one here has ever said otherwise. What we have been saying all along is that there is a lot going on here. Not one thing but multiple things that have been building for quite some time. That is why so many here hopped onto the opportunity of a lifetime between 2009 and 2012 that are now reaping rich rewards. I spent my morning running around CraneTown and counted a dozen massive cranes working in the Golden Triangle. They aren’t building houses, they are building jobs while others missed out on the opportunity of a lifetime[/quote]
CraneTown, love it! Opportunity of a life time for sure.

[Coronita]

Oh my god. This is hysterical….

https://youtu.be/Fcg9L7WFdiE

[Coronita]

I don’t think dz’s problem started out with lack of affordability. It seems like more extreme self inflicted pessimism and self imposed sky is falling that resulted hesitation to buy when things were affordable…and subsequently missing the boat…. at this point, I would probably wait for a correction too, or if doesn’t happen, move to Utah.

[scaredyclassic]

The story on how Putin likely came to power is bone chilling.

Basically he was minister of war under Yeltsin, who was facing corruption scandals. An election for president was coming up. Putin was polling at 2 percent. A series of bombings in apt buildings was killing Russian civilians, hundreds. Putin said it was Chechen rebels and went to war. Six months later he was president, absolved Yeltsin.

The evidence is very very strong that it was Putin and the secret police who did the bombings, not the Chechens, as a pretext for war. That you can read about in depth, lots of investigative journaling on that.

Based on that, odds of a nuclear war are probably more like 1:50.

[Coronita]

[quote=scaredyclassic]The story on how Putin likely came to power is bone chilling.

Basically he was minister of war under Yeltsin, who was facing corruption scandals. An election for president was coming up. Putin was polling at 2 percent. A series of bombings in apt buildings was killing Russian civilians, hundreds. Putin said it was Chechen rebels and went to war. Six months later he was president, absolved Yeltsin.

The evidence is very very strong that it was Putin and the secret police who did the bombings, not the Chechens, as a pretext for war. That you can read about in depth, lots of investigative journaling on that.

Based on that, odds of a nuclear war are probably more like 1:50.[/quote]

Wrong thread. But ok we are all dead. No big deal.

[flyer]

Yes, Scaredy, those possibilities make our little real estate issues seem even more insignificant, as those, and we, are in the end, anyway.

Still have hope that things will get better–especially for the people of Ukraine who are having to deal with the realities of this horrible situation every day for no reason other than the ego of a “high-functioning” psychopath–the worst kind–so will check back in on the other thread from time to time to see the opinions.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita][quote=scaredyclassic]The story on how Putin likely came to power is bone chilling.

Basically he was minister of war under Yeltsin, who was facing corruption scandals. An election for president was coming up. Putin was polling at 2 percent. A series of bombings in apt buildings was killing Russian civilians, hundreds. Putin said it was Chechen rebels and went to war. Six months later he was president, absolved Yeltsin.

The evidence is very very strong that it was Putin and the secret police who did the bombings, not the Chechens, as a pretext for war. That you can read about in depth, lots of investigative journaling on that.

Based on that, odds of a nuclear war are probably more like 1:50.[/quote]

Wrong thread. But ok we are all dead. No big deal.[/quote]

I got lost in the fog of war and attacked the wrong thread. Did not mean that real estate or money issues were trivial.

[The-Shoveler]

Dilbert had a good one today matching this thread.

“Can’t work remotely”

https://dilbert.com/strip/2022-03-06

[sdrealtor]

One thing I think gets missed is how small our market is. It only takes about 5 to 10 new buyers a month to collectively change/support our strongest markets. We dont even need new folks coming here to WFH remotely. Simply a change in preferences from local hybrid workers to want to live in a bigger/nicer home changes our market. There is so much going on here

[Coronita]

DZ, don’t be like Larry 🙂

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH5-rSxilxo

[Anonymous]

I love Larry David and Curb, only thing funnier on HBO was Silicon Valley Season 1. That was comedy gold.

[Coronita]

Gold is pretty. I like the bling bling.
I might melt mine to make jewelry… 🙂

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]Gold is pretty. I like the bling bling.
I might melt mine to make jewelry… :)[/quote]

If you want gold jewelry I’m your guy. Will offer you the piggington discount (wholesale price)

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]Gold is pretty. I like the bling bling.
I might melt mine to make jewelry… :)[/quote]

If you want gold jewelry I’m your guy. Will offer you the piggington discount (wholesale price)[/quote]

I like 1 kilo gold bars. If only there was a way to easily tell if they were real or fake and not filled in the center with tungsten…

Most gold jewelry these days are worthless and only 14k gold… Years ago, 18k gold was more acceptable for jewelry…Gold jewelry from the far east (before the communist overran china) use to close to 24k. But 24k jewelry can’t really be worn. It’s too soft, easily damaged because it’s too soft. That was one of the reasons why 18k because popular for jewelry. You won’t find much left in 24k these days. Not interested in today’s 14k gold jewelry.

Come to think about it, I don’t wear any accessories. No, rings, no necklace, no watch. Nothing.

I think a gold plated gun would be cool.. Like one from Face Off.

[Anonymous]

Why do you say 14K gold jewelry is worthless? It is worth basically its equivalent weight in gold in proportion to 18K. Can you tell the difference looking at it?
Nowadays with the high price of gold, 10K jewelry is quite common.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Why do you say 14K gold jewelry is worthless? It is worth basically its equivalent weight in gold in proportion to 18K. Can you tell the difference looking at it?
Nowadays with the high price of gold, 10K jewelry is quite common.[/quote]

I’m not a jewelry expert, so I don’t claim to be…But, to me 14k or 10k gold isn’t worthless. It’s just worth less….a lot less…

I think most 14k jewelry are lousy “investment grade jewelry” because it’s meant to be affordable for the average person and meant to look pretty…But it’s marked up significantly above how much gold content is in it. If you want to resell it, it’s worth about how much gold content is in there, which is a lot less than most originally bought it for. Not in all cases, but in a lot of cases… When jewelry is bought back, often times it’s melted down for gold content only. At least that’s what one of my friends who owns a jewelry retail store that buys back gold jewelry says. The top dollars she pays is usually the old pieces that come from asia that are 18k and 24k…but again they are mostly melted down.

I think “investment grade” jewelry here in the west are not 10k or 14k gold, they are at least 18k and they are usually associated with a brand or celebrity or both to be worth more than the gold content. You won’t find many in that category that are 10k or 14k…And I think if you try to resell them, you’ll find out what I’m saying, probably.

That’s not to say one shouldn’t buy 14k gold pieces for a significant other. They are pretty, and there is a non-financial benefit of jewelry for significant other. But imho, calling it an good “investment” in most cases is a far stretch, especially if you are buying them from retail stores brand new. You might be able to arbitrage them if you buy something from someone, and that someone doesn’t know what it’s really worth, and you do. No different than going to garage sale and finding an painting that’s worth a lot that the seller didn’t know about. But again, I’m not a jewelry expert and don’t like that sort of wild speculation/gambling…

That’s why when it comes to gold, I just prefer the real thing…Bullion. because the markup from the gold content is as low as it’s going to get. Gold coins at times can be purchased at $10-15/ounce above spot prices and sold $10-15/ounce below spot prices. Actually for awhile, when one bought gold over a verified trusted gold dealer over eBay, you could actually get gold below spot because for awhile eBay included coin purchases as part of their eBay bucks rebate program…They did that until a lot of people like took advantage of that, and then they started to exclude bullion purchases…It was great because you bought gold $10-15 above spot, your ebay buck reward would rebate you back $100 per coin purchase up to 4 coins per quarter, and your Visa card would rebate you back 1% for purchases….

Some people collect rare coins, and those coins have value beyond the metal content. That works too. But, I don’t do that. I just prefer to keep it simple…

[Anonymous]

I see where you are coming from. Jewelry as a collectible would be more desirable and is quite rarer in more than 14K. And unless you own a retail jewelry store you can’t benefit from the large markups that you get from selling 10K and 14K pieces

But from a pure gold melted down value point of view, there is no difference in price (in theory). In other words, an 18K bar is worth the same proportional value 18/24 of the spot gold price as 14K (14/24). But since 18K bars are probably not very common, there may be a slight additional markup but it wouldn’t be much.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]I see where you are coming from. Jewelry as a collectible would be more desirable and is quite rarer in more than 14K. And unless you own a retail jewelry store you can’t benefit from the large markups that you get from selling 10K and 14K pieces

But from a pure gold melted down value point of view, there is no difference in price (in theory). In other words, an 18K bar is worth the same proportional value 18/24 of the spot gold price as 14K (14/24). But since 18K bars are probably not very common, there may be a slight additional markup but it wouldn’t be much.[/quote]

In theory, yes… but in practice, from you, the retail buyer of jewelry…. how do know how much gold is really in the jewelry and that it’s actually 14k or 10k, and not less? Many retail jewelry pieces don’t actually state the total weight of the gold part, especially cosmetic/affordanble/non-investment grade jewelry. How do you properly evaluate of the total retail price you pay for a piece of jewelry, the percentage of it is for the gold content, and the rest just a markup for the aesthetics?

Because in many cases, the markup for the non-gold content is significantly more than the price of the gold content, and if the worth of the consumer grade jewelry selling back is only the gold’s meltdown value, you’re going to lose the value from the piece’s aesthetic. For example, if you buy a necklace with that has gold and other decorations on it, and they don’t give you a total weight of the gold content, you might end up spending say 50% for the gold content and 50% for everything else. Melt value might only be for the gold content, which is worth only 50% of the total price of the piece…so just to come out even (non-inflation adjusted), gold prices would have to double from the time you purchased the original piece. That’s not a good “investment”…

There’s a difference if there’s some collectors value for that jewelry. But most 10k or 14k jewelry is not collectible, since it’s meant for your average consumer as an affordable option.

Also, if you buy jewelry in bulk for “investment”, how do you test for the actual gold content? How do you really know it’s 14k versus say 12k or 10k? with 10k or 14k, weight tests aren’t that accurate by itself..Now, for a consumer jewelry that your spouse/significant other likes, it doesn’t really matter how true is the gold content is and its unlikely you’ll spend the time an money to get it checked out, since it probably isn’t a big deal. You spouse/significant other likes the piece and that’s all there is too it. But from a “investment” perspective, that’s a crappy proposition. Because you won’t really know what you are getting. That uncertainty is “investment risk”…
So from that perspective, I wouldn’t buy a consumer grade jewelry counting on it to appreciate or view it as an “investment” because all those factors. All that matters really is my significant other likes the piece, fake or untrue to the gold content or not.

There are reasons why if one is truly serious about gold bullion investing, one sticks with well know coins or gold bars. Because while it’s not impossible to make them fake,
1) value is pretty clear: 1 ounce of gold…
2) purity of well know coins are well known. Canadian maple leafs are 99.9% pure, whereas american eagles are 91.7% ..But total gold content is still the same…

3) there are a lot of test kits that while isn’t a guarantee, does reduce your changes of getting a fake coin, The fisch test kit is a pretty good test kit. And they are designed to work on the well known gold coins that our popular…

https://www.thefisch.com/

4) the amount of effort to make a fake gold coin that is almost indetectable using tungsten is not worth it versus doing this to a 1 kilo bar. So while it’s possible to make fake 1 ounce coins with tungsten, the effort for just 1 coin isn’t worth it. 1 kilo bars are different, because fakers drill out the center of the 1 kilo bar and fill it up with tungsten, and being the weight and characteristics are close, with a large 1 kilo bar, it’s far easier to fake…

https://globalbullionsuppliers.com/blogs/blog/are-there-gold-bars-filled-with-tungsten-at-major-banks#:~:text=In%20high%2Dend%20counterfeits%2C%20a,coins%20are%20still%20very%20common.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tungsten-filled-gold-bars-found-in-new-york-2012-9

5) If you’re buying 1 ounce bars from reputable places, they usually have some traceable serial number…For instance Valcambi gold bars…

https://www.jmbullion.com/1-oz-valcambi-gold-bar-new-w-assay/

Again, none of this matters as much if you’re spending like $1000-$10k on gold/jewelry/etc, because if things are fake or not up to spec or not properly evaluated, you’re at most out $1000-10k and probably doesn ot materially affect your overall financial situation. But if one is really taking up sizeable “investments” in gold where it makes a material impact on one’s financials (just like every other class of investment), it behooves one to make purchases without the tools to verify authenticity, because not checking for authenticity is a huge risk for your gold “investment”

[Anonymous]

Absolutely for the lay person they should only purchase bars or coins. Gold in jewelry form only makes sense if you have retail jewelry to off load them.

I have family in the jewelry business so bought a lot of gold jewelry through them during the “great recession” and honestly got most of it at far less than the $900-1000 spot price as there were a lot of desperate people hawking their gold in that period.

Some of the stuff I melted down to bars, but the nicer stuff I kept intact as it can be sold easily for double the spot gold price in jewelry form.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Absolutely for the lay person they should only purchase bars or coins. Gold in jewelry form only makes sense if you have retail jewelry to off load them.

I have family in the jewelry business so bought a lot of gold jewelry through them during the “great recession” and honestly got most of it at far less than the $900-1000 spot price as there were a lot of desperate people hawking their gold in that period.

Some of the stuff I melted down to bars, but the nicer stuff I kept intact as it can be sold easily for double the spot gold price in jewelry form.[/quote]

Well, did you pay sales tax for that, or did you do that (illegally) under the table 🙂

Also, come on man.. Before talking about how well gold investment worked out for you…It would have been more appropriate to first disclose that basically you have family in the business, and that your gold investment gain was primarily only from the special relationships you have with your family and not so much your investment dexterity that others have specifically for gold…because without that special advantage, you would not have been able to reproduce those gains that you specifically mentioned for gold, like any other investment asset class for which you do not have any sort of special advantage…….It’s no different than flyer who keeps claiming how much money and how easy it was for him make money in real estate in san diego, when the bulk of his wealth was inherited… just saying… Not there there is anything wrong with having a special advantage… But let’s at least be upfront and honest about it that that was the primary enabler, and not financial dexterity. Because let’s not mislead others who are trying to build their own wealth right now from the start… that these “easy” ways of making money for you with gold (and in real estate, for flyer’s case) are reproducible by others who don’t have those “special tools”

Afterall, the easiest way to make $1million is… to start out with $999,999

Also, you seemed to have taken advantage of unfortunate people that had no money and had to sell gold at firesale prices, some of them possibly passed down to them from their relatives…. I believe in a few threads back, you mentioned something about unaffordable housing and rent and how landlords jacking up rent was selfish and self centered….How are these two situations any different, besides, you being the one subject to the possibility of a landlord jacking up rent prices?

[sdrealtor]

Fraudzone

[Anonymous]

Wow you guys are really going mental here, sorry to even bother sharing my info on gold.
– First, if I had used my money to purchase the ETF GLD in 2009, it would be up over 100%
– Second I could have easily purchased gold bullion off the street for the market price. In which case my investment would have gone up over 100%. My “family advantage” only netted an additional 20% profit or so.
– Third, what kind of moron are you to suggest it is immoral or unethical to purchase gold off the “unfortunate”? They need money, I have money and pay competitive price. Do you think pawnshops are immoral too? Get the fuck out of here what that take.
– Bottom line, I made a shit load of money taking risk and shorting the housing market. I used some of that new found cash to purchase gold. I would (and will) do it all over again.

Also, I have never once said landlords were selfish for raising rents. I have always been in favor of free market capitalism. What I said is it is selfish to root for the Fed to keep money printing knowing that it is absolutely fucking over the majority of the population financially, just because it benefits your personal interests. The Federal Reserve blowing ginormous financial bubbles, encouraging risky speculation, and then the government bailing out banks and other failing companies when that bubble inevitably pops, is what I despise. That is the opposite of free market.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Wow you guys are really going mental here, sorry to even bother sharing my info on gold.
– First, if I had used my money to purchase the ETF GLD in 2009, it would be up over 100%
– Second I could have easily purchased gold bullion off the street for the market price. In which case my investment would have gone up over 100%. My “family advantage” only netted an additional 20% profit or so.
– Third, what kind of moron are you to suggest it is immoral or unethical to purchase gold off the “unfortunate”? They need money, I have money and pay competitive price. Do you think pawnshops are immoral too? Get the fuck out of here what that take.
– Bottom line, I made a shit load of money taking risk and shorting the housing market. I used some of that new found cash to purchase gold. I would (and will) do it all over again.

Also, I have never once said landlords were selfish for raising rents. I have always been in favor of free market capitalism. What I said is it is selfish to root for the Fed to keep money printing knowing that it is absolutely fucking over the majority of the population financially, just because it benefits your personal interests. The Federal Reserve blowing ginormous financial bubbles, encouraging risky speculation, and then the government bailing out banks and other failing companies when that bubble inevitably pops, is what I despise. That is the opposite of free market.[/quote]

No, we’re not going mental here. We’re just trying to follow your train of thought on this thread. It first started off about how return to work is somehow going to affect housing prices in san diego, despite folks stating that (1) not everyone is going back to the office (2) there’s high tech job expansion here and (3) there’s some people that moved here for other reasons. And then we followed you down the discussion about how housing prices are insane and that people will be in trouble, despite a good portion of purchases were done in the 2009/10 timeframe with low fixed rate mortgages and then some even refinanced to a 30year 3% or lower, and there’s no incentive for them to force sell, considering their payments are way lower than people are paying for rent, and also that was an opportunity of a lifetime….. Then you took us to the discussion about how the stock market is going to crash, and while we are in the middle of a correction, we haven’t returned back to 2019 levels (yet) at least…And then you mentioned something about day trading assuming we day trade/speculate and are doing so bigly and losing our shorts, despite contrary to your assumptions that most of us do not day trade or participate in speculation in a bigly way and that most of us do boring style DRIP investment over 15-20+years and track pretty much with the 4% rule of compounding, and that while we might speculate here and there, it’s not really material enough to affect the overall financial situation….Then on the other thread where you offered financial advice, we’re trying to follow the logic that you mentioned it’s a bad time to invest and that you took a short position in some stock…which we mentioned really isn’t investing, it’s speculating/gambling and a lot more risking than anyone else who’s doing a DRIP style investment…Somehow, you took us down the path about how Gold is a great investment since 2009, where you mentioned that the bulk of your gold purchase was below $1000 in 2009. But we showed you that gold really hasn’t done that well relative to everything else, because it went as high as $2100 before coming back down to the $1300/1400 only recently have we seen it cross $2100 mainly due to the war and uncertainty of ukraine, and I said that I like gold because it’s pretty and maybe I’ll melt something down and coat a gun. But then you said how retail gold jewelry is a great investment. I said, it wasn’t because most jewelry these day is 14k and worth less than what retail price people pay. Then you indicated that gold jewelry is a good investment. I refuted that because gold jewelry typically is priced way above the price of the gold content and retail purchases also include a 8% sales tax, unlike bullion…Then you indicated you did the bulk of your gold purchases by buying gold jewelry from a family jewelry store who bought gold from desperate people that needed money and sold off their family jewelry and told us you bought some of that desperately sold jewelry well below spot value…something that I pointed out really isn’t a investment that anyone could really do that doesn’t have privileged status to a jewelry store and/or pawn shop, no different that Flyer who has privileged inherited money to buy homes in San Diego and make money “easily”….And I just wonder why you felt it was immoral for landlords to charge tenants high rent prices, while it was not immmoral for a jewelry store to take advantage of someone desperate and not give a fair market value for the jewelry they are trying to sell…And then you said we are going mental, when we’re really just trying to follow your train of thought on investment/speculation….

I might have missed something here and there, but that’s the summary of where you took our discussion on both threads…

[Anonymous]

Seriously FLU you have some issues man. All of your responses are so long winded, I mean you just wrote more characters in this response than I have cumulatively in this entire thread. How on earth do you manage people in a professional environment with such poor writing skills?

You really need to learn how to paraphrase. I’ll summarize for you since you have reading comprehension issues:

There are several flashing red signs that the bubble is about to burst. I’ve provided several examples: Tech stocks getting creamed, Rising interest rates, end of covid, return to office, high inflation, all of the public RE companies getting ass hammered (zillow, Redfin, open), etc. etc.

I then said under these conditions it might not be wise to throw cash into the stock market at this moment. I also pointed out that money can be made in a down market, although not specifically advising anyone to do so. I also pointed out that my gold investments are going well. Whether I originally bought them at market price or via professional discount is irrelevant.

In response, all I hear from you clowns is “Opportunity of a lifetime”. You guys really don’t have any more useful advice to offer other than to go back in a time machine to 2012 and buy real estate?

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Seriously FLU you have some issues man. All of your responses are so long winded, I mean you just wrote more characters in this response than I have cumulatively in this entire thread. How on earth do you manage people in a professional environment with such poor writing skills?

You really need to learn how to paraphrase. I’ll summarize for you since you have reading comprehension issues:

There are several flashing red signs that the bubble is about to burst. I’ve provided several examples: Tech stocks getting creamed, Rising interest rates, end of covid, return to office, high inflation, all of the public RE companies getting ass hammered (zillow, Redfin, open), etc. etc.

I then said under these conditions it might not be wise to throw cash into the stock market at this moment. I also pointed out that money can be made in a down market, although not specifically advising anyone to do so. I also pointed out that my gold investments are going well. Whether I originally bought them at market price or via professional discount is irrelevant.

In response, all I hear from you clowns is “Opportunity of a lifetime”. You guys really don’t have any more useful advice to offer other than to go back in a time machine to 2012 and buy real estate?[/quote]

I’m in tech, I don’t need to have professional writing skills. I just need to send memes.

And yahoo founder jerry yang wrote emails completely in lower case with no punctuation. I think he made a fortunate… how did you do during the same time?

Besides this is a blog. I just like to write long ass responses to weird ass speculation…..

I’m doing fine professionally, thanks for asking. I guess I don’t work in such an anal retentive industry….sorry if you do.

My reading comprehension is just fine. I’m just going where your rambling is going…

Real estate in 2009 was an opportunity of a lifetime here in SD. No doubt about it. Buying gold jewelry from broke people probably isn’t an opportunity of a lifetime since Americans probably over extend all the time…but ….. The magnitude of people selling off their jewelry out of desperation back in 2009 might have been an opportunity of a lifetime. Not my cup of tea to make money, but nothing wrong with it…I prefer higher rent prices that track inflation once someone moves out…

[Anonymous]

Look, I’m not rambling. I was very clear and concise about the mounting evidence that the 12 year long bubble is finally bursting.

You are the one rambling. And SDR with his endless reminders of missed opportunities is not constructive and has no relevance to the present day situation.

I am in no way bragging about the success of my gold, just pointing out that it made sense at the time (to me) that that’s where I should focus my investing and that it hasn’t been a bad investment. Had I taken all my money and dumped it in RE at that time would I be more wealthy today, hell yes. But on that same token, if I dumped all my money in the Stock market in 2009-2010 I would be so wealthy right now that the current prices of RE would be negligible. But I didn’t do that so let’s move on and deal with the present situation shall we?

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Look, I’m not rambling. I was very clear and concise about the mounting evidence that the 12 year long bubble is finally bursting.

You are the one rambling. And SDR with his endless reminders of missed opportunities is not constructive and has no relevance to the present day situation.

I am in no way bragging about the success of my gold, just pointing out that it made sense at the time (to me) that that’s where I should focus my investing and that it hasn’t been a bad investment. Had I taken all my money and dumped it in RE at that time would I be more wealthy today, hell yes. But on that same token, if I dumped all my money in the Stock market in 2009-2010 I would be so wealthy right now that the current prices of RE would be negligible. But I didn’t do that so let’s move on and deal with the present situation shall we?[/quote]

Of course you are rambling. You started this thread as rambling

[quote=dz rambling]
Covid is over now for all intents and purposes. Amazon announced return to the office (3 days a week) and no longer requiring vaccine.

You knew this was coming, other large tech companies will follow suite. This change in addition to tech stocks getting absolutely hammered in the stock market this year will pretty much put an end to the “Bay area tech worker moving to ___ for remote work”.

Just another ominous sign for the housing market along with rapidly rising interest rates. Anybody flipping houses now is going to get rammed hard. I think Zillow was wise to get out of that business when they did.
[/quote]

That’s rambling…Not that there is anything wrong with rambling. We don’t mind people rambling. But you seem to, except your own.

I’m just keeping this thread on page 1, so we all remember.

[Anonymous]

Okay, I guess any topic that you don’t like or agree with is rambling. Got it.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Okay, I guess any topic that you don’t like or agree with is rambling. Got it.[/quote]

Lol, I neither dislike or like the topic. But looking at the initial post, you took 1 news article about 1 big tech company and generalized that to a specific local market condition without much basis or facts. And when multiple people pointed out more credible information to the contrary, you really didn’t like that and glossed over all those other indicators to the contrary.

For every company large or mid-size that is going back hybrid, there’s several others that are remote. But regardless of remote or not, it’s not only contributing factor for why more people are living here. All the data also indicate job growth in biotech and life sciences. We posted numerous of credible articles about this both from real estate companies that show commercial RE demand, and also job stats from tech articles and a bunch of other sources…more than any sort of “fact/data” you posted to support your opinions….All these articles which you glossed over again and either ignored or denied are factual..and continued to ramble your opinion that you posted in the beginning of this thread…You brought no new data, besides 1 or 2 or 3 new articles that talk about 1 specific employer…And you conveniently glossed over the article about 3 Roots and 14000 applicants on a waitlist for 200 homes….You also gloss over that the inventory in Mira Mesa is essentially close to 0, despite large a population Mira Mesa is serving.

So it’s not that we don’t like what you are saying, but what you are saying doesn’t make sense.

[quote]
You are the one rambling. And SDR with his endless reminders of missed opportunities is not constructive and has no relevance to the present day situation.
[/quote]

I don’t deny I am not rambling, because that’s sort of what this thread is.

[quote]
I am in no way bragging about the success of my gold, just pointing out that it made sense at the time (to me) that that’s where I should focus my investing and that it hasn’t been a bad investment.
[/quote]

No one said you are bragging about your gold investments. But what you initially said about gold investment made no sense without the additional context that your investment into retail jewelry was primarily achieved by off market activity with a family business, in which you had access to below market valuation for jewelry that is generally not available to anyone else. There’s nothing wrong with that at all, but it’s not something that can be reproducible by your average joe, and from your initial post about gold, it was misleading for others to think that they can simply “invest” in cosmetic 14k jewelry and come out ahead.

[quote]
Had I taken all my money and dumped it in RE at that time would I be more wealthy today, hell yes. But on that same token, if I dumped all my money in the Stock market in 2009-2010 I would be so wealthy right now that the current prices of RE would be negligible.
[/quote]

But that’s also the point i was trying to make. You didn’t need to dump all your money into the stock market to come out ahead. That’s the point of DRIP investment. If you do a little over the course of several years, you wouldn’t need to be market timing to reap some gains… nor would you feel a need to short sell something to try to speculate a gain. Both much higher risk than DRIP.

[Anonymous]

A lot of big companies, Silicon Valley and otherwise, have announced going back to the office 3 days a week starting in April. I just used Amazon as a prime example (no pun intended), not generalizing.

I’ve heard from piggington sources, other RE blogs and all over mainstream media that high paid FAANG type workers moving to San Diego to remote work were a major factor in house price run-up in San Diego. (Personally I believe it was a minor factor at best) Now that Covid is over and many (not all) workers will be returning to office in the near future, common sense says that trend will regress at least to some degree.

You guys are so focused on the job growth in San Diego as the reason everyone is going to continue moving here and driving up prices (wait, I thought it was the weather and lifestyle?).

I worked in the tech industry during the .com bubble and I am seeing so many similarities that it is scary. What happened to all of those .com era startups, many in San Diego? I know a great many that evaporated. If the stock market collapses like in 2000 (and currently it appears well on its way), a lot of jobs will be lost. And with current housing and rent prices, a lot of folks will be leaving San Diego.

[flyer]

And in other real estate news–don’t think this will affect any of us. Personally, we haven’t been flipping for awhile, so I’m not concerned–not the core of our business. There are lots of things going on in the world that could have an impact on real estate, but I don’t think this will move the needle much, if at all.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY, Calif. — A state law maker from San Diego says short-term investors are contributing to the housing crisis. Now he’s introduced a Bill he says will give average people a chance to own a home again.

Flipping houses is nothing new. You purchase a property, make necessary changes and then sell it for a profit.

But Assembly member Chris Ward, from the 78th District, says that process is hurting the housing market and keeping average people from buying a home.

The California Housing Speculation Act or Assembly Bill 1771, is designed to change real estate tax policy and discourage some investors from quickly reselling properties like single family homes.

“It would be an additional income tax on the profit gain from a sale that occurred within three years of the previous sale,” said Ward.

Ward is proposing an additional 25% tax on the gain from the sale beginning January 1, 2023.

He says research shows U.S. investors bought a record $63.6 billion worth of homes by late last year. Nearly three-quarters of that was single family homes, the highest level it’s ever been.

“But we’ve also seen this influx of short-term investors trying to get into the market, outbid San Diegans and Californians with all-cash offers, and drive the prices up for everyone,” Ward said.

Ward says California does have a housing supply deficit, but profits continue to grow by 26% each year, which isn’t sustainable.

University of San Diego real estate professor Norm Miller says the Bill may help, but California’s tax laws are still more favorable to investors.

“But if you’re an investor, an institutional buyer, not only do you get unlimited tax right offs from the mortgage interest and the property taxes, you’ll also get depreciation, which is something an owner does not get on their own personal residence,” Miller said.

“So, if somebody’s trying to go in there, fix up a fixer-upper and then sell it for record profits, that is distorting the market because somebody else could have gone in there, done the same and kept the home,” Ward said.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=flyer]And in other real estate news–don’t think this will affect any of us. Personally, we haven’t been flipping for awhile, so I’m not concerned–not the core of our business. There are lots of things going on in the world that could have an impact on real estate, but I don’t think this will move the needle much, if at all.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY, Calif. — A state law maker from San Diego says short-term investors are contributing to the housing crisis. Now he’s introduced a Bill he says will give average people a chance to own a home again.

Flipping houses is nothing new. You purchase a property, make necessary changes and then sell it for a profit.

But Assembly member Chris Ward, from the 78th District, says that process is hurting the housing market and keeping average people from buying a home.

The California Housing Speculation Act or Assembly Bill 1771, is designed to change real estate tax policy and discourage some investors from quickly reselling properties like single family homes.

“It would be an additional income tax on the profit gain from a sale that occurred within three years of the previous sale,” said Ward.

Ward is proposing an additional 25% tax on the gain from the sale beginning January 1, 2023.

He says research shows U.S. investors bought a record $63.6 billion worth of homes by late last year. Nearly three-quarters of that was single family homes, the highest level it’s ever been.

“But we’ve also seen this influx of short-term investors trying to get into the market, outbid San Diegans and Californians with all-cash offers, and drive the prices up for everyone,” Ward said.

Ward says California does have a housing supply deficit, but profits continue to grow by 26% each year, which isn’t sustainable.

University of San Diego real estate professor Norm Miller says the Bill may help, but California’s tax laws are still more favorable to investors.

“But if you’re an investor, an institutional buyer, not only do you get unlimited tax right offs from the mortgage interest and the property taxes, you’ll also get depreciation, which is something an owner does not get on their own personal residence,” Miller said.

“So, if somebody’s trying to go in there, fix up a fixer-upper and then sell it for record profits, that is distorting the market because somebody else could have gone in there, done the same and kept the home,” Ward said.[/quote]

Interesting proposal…. Maybe this should be in its own thread.

Ward is misguided and probably doesn’t understand economics. How can limiting available inventory help buyers (assuming the extra tax reduces supply because owners will wait 3 years).

His quote makes this clear :

So, if somebody’s trying to go in there, fix up a fixer-upper and then sell it for record profits, that is distorting the market because somebody else could have gone in there, done the same and kept the home,” Ward said.

Doesn’t he realize that the people in the market who might buy the home and fix to live in it already have that opportunity.

[Coronita]

.

[Coronita]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=flyer]And in other real estate news–don’t think this will affect any of us. Personally, we haven’t been flipping for awhile, so I’m not concerned–not the core of our business. There are lots of things going on in the world that could have an impact on real estate, but I don’t think this will move the needle much, if at all.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY, Calif. — A state law maker from San Diego says short-term investors are contributing to the housing crisis. Now he’s introduced a Bill he says will give average people a chance to own a home again.

Flipping houses is nothing new. You purchase a property, make necessary changes and then sell it for a profit.

But Assembly member Chris Ward, from the 78th District, says that process is hurting the housing market and keeping average people from buying a home.

The California Housing Speculation Act or Assembly Bill 1771, is designed to change real estate tax policy and discourage some investors from quickly reselling properties like single family homes.

“It would be an additional income tax on the profit gain from a sale that occurred within three years of the previous sale,” said Ward.

Ward is proposing an additional 25% tax on the gain from the sale beginning January 1, 2023.

He says research shows U.S. investors bought a record $63.6 billion worth of homes by late last year. Nearly three-quarters of that was single family homes, the highest level it’s ever been.

“But we’ve also seen this influx of short-term investors trying to get into the market, outbid San Diegans and Californians with all-cash offers, and drive the prices up for everyone,” Ward said.

Ward says California does have a housing supply deficit, but profits continue to grow by 26% each year, which isn’t sustainable.

University of San Diego real estate professor Norm Miller says the Bill may help, but California’s tax laws are still more favorable to investors.

“But if you’re an investor, an institutional buyer, not only do you get unlimited tax right offs from the mortgage interest and the property taxes, you’ll also get depreciation, which is something an owner does not get on their own personal residence,” Miller said.

“So, if somebody’s trying to go in there, fix up a fixer-upper and then sell it for record profits, that is distorting the market because somebody else could have gone in there, done the same and kept the home,” Ward said.[/quote]

Interesting proposal…. Maybe this should be in its own thread.

Ward is misguided and probably doesn’t understand economics. How can limiting available inventory help buyers (assuming the extra tax reduces supply because owners will wait 3 years).

His quote makes this clear :

So, if somebody’s trying to go in there, fix up a fixer-upper and then sell it for record profits, that is distorting the market because somebody else could have gone in there, done the same and kept the home,” Ward said.

Doesn’t he realize that the people in the market who might buy the home and fix to live in it already have that opportunity.[/quote]

Lol on the proposed bill….

[flyer]

Totally agree wrt the article FormerSanDiegan–even if it passes–it won’t make much difference–but it is interesting to see how desperate politicians are becoming to try to appease their constituents wrt housing. Until they find a way to create more land, I kinda think it’s going to continue to be a challenge for them–especially in highly desirable areas like San Diego.

[Coronita]

Oh boy… where do I even start with this..

[quote=deadzone]A lot of big companies, Silicon Valley and otherwise, have announced going back to the office 3 days a week starting in April. I just used Amazon as a prime example (no pun intended), not generalizing.

I’ve heard from piggington sources, other RE blogs and all over mainstream media that high paid FAANG type workers moving to San Diego to remote work were a major factor in house price run-up in San Diego. (Personally I believe it was a minor factor at best) Now that Covid is over and many (not all) workers will be returning to office in the near future, common sense says that trend will regress at least to some degree.

[/quote]

Ok, specifically with people that relocated.. Do you think that people who did relocate here from higher cost areas, would simply move here, make one of the most important financial decisions in their life (buy a house), and move their entire family down here, just on a whim, without any sort of long term plan or assurance from their current employer that their remote arrangement could continue….That is, they didn’t arrange for one possible cases:

1: they found a new job here, and quit their old job
2: they are important enough to their current company and ensured that 2-3 years from now that covid is better, they wouldn’t have to relocate back to the company
3: they work for a company with satellite offices down here such that if they ever had to return to an office, even it was for a few days in the week, they could do so by returning to a satellite office down here
4: they work for a company that requires then to show up every so often (monthly, every 3 weeks, etc), and are reasonably reachable by car or train etc.

There’s plenty of people I know that fall into each of those categories above, including my tenants. SDR’s neighbors also falls into many of those categories.

If you are correct (which I highly doubt since most normal people and normal families actually put a lot of things into important decisions like buying a house and raising a family before relocating everyone), we should soon see people moving back to where they have to work now and a desperate need of a paycheck, in 2-3 months time and there should be MORE housing supply on the market in 2-3 months time…

[quote]
You guys are so focused on the job growth in San Diego as the reason everyone is going to continue moving here and driving up prices (wait, I thought it was the weather and lifestyle?).
[/quote]

Um, you are using the term “everyone” No one else is. Some people are moving here because those people, specifically in biotech/life sciences have one of the best opportunities right now here in san diego, simply because the dollars poured into biotech/life sciences into San Diego is pretty large lately, especially after covid.

[quote]
I worked in the tech industry during the .com bubble and I am seeing so many similarities that it is scary. What happened to all of those .com era startups, many in San Diego? I know a great many that evaporated. If the stock market collapses like in 2000 (and currently it appears well on its way), a lot of jobs will be lost. And with current housing and rent prices, a lot of folks will be leaving San Diego.[/quote]

In tech, there will always be things come and go and something new happens. I agree, the dotcom era brought a lot of people that were in the tech industry that didn’t really belong there and that were not really qualified to do. So when they had to cut heads, they cut people that were expendable that weren’t really tech rooted (B and C quality workers that personally I could get myself to hire, but for some companies, they just wanted bodies)….When the dotcom bubble imploded, yes those people got washed out and couldn’t find any other tech jobs, because they weren’t really competent to be in tech to begin. But here’s the thing: if it wasn’t for the dotcom bubble, they never would have had the chance to make a lot more money given their limited abilities. So for them, jumping into tech, even as unqualified as they were, was an opportunity of a lifetime (albeit short lived).Most of them didn’t hit the stock option jackpot that they were hoping for, but a lot of them for a short period of time were overcompensated for the (lack of tech) skills they had. When the music stopped, they simply went back to their normal paying jobs they had previously, and let the higher paying tech jobs left to the people who really knew what they were doing.

But, take a look at the bay area housing market:

If you are correct (that a large tech contraction would cause housing prices to drastically correct), then why is it when the .dotcom imploded in 2000-1 and a lot of people lost their jobs, home prices in the bay area didn’t massively correct between 2001-2003? I was there in and out , and can confirm that there was some mild price changes, but it was really just noise. Rent prices in Santa Clara also did not materially decline: the rental we have there never had an extended vacancy or rent price reduction during those time, it stayed around $3500/month for 1600 sqft SFH in Santa Clara and kept going up as early as 2004. The only major price correction happened in 2008-2012 during subprime bubble, like everywhere else (which is why many of us are calling that an opportunity of a lifetime…)…There wasn’t a major price correction right after the dot.com bubble burst. If we didn’t see a massive foreclosure/price correction in the Bay Area (which is heavily tech concentrated) during the dot.com implosion, then again, why do you think any sort of contraction in tech here will have a drastic affect on home prices in SD overall, which is far less tech concentrated than the bay area????

=======

Speaking of relocation and working remotely in SD. Working remotely from SD isn’t really new…Some people have been doing this as early 2001/2. It’s just now a lot more people are doing it because a lot more companies find it acceptable post covid. Not every company will accept it, but a lot more company find it acceptable than back in 2001 when I did it. And even if terms change, people who were given that option to begin with are usually important/skilled enough to buy enough time to adapt to the change.

For me, after being in the bay area a few years and after 2 IPOS and 1 acquisition, I wanted to move back to San Diego. I decided to do this in 2001, when the dot.com imploded and many people were unemployed. Relative to everyone else, financially I was fine and in the worst case, if my employer didn’t allow me to work remotely, I would be in no worse shape then everyone else that got laid off in tech. So I resigned and told my employer I needed to relocate to San Diego for personal reasons. We ended up working out a remote work arrangement for 1 year, so I could transition my team to someone else while I worked remotely from SD until something better came along. During that year, I didn’t really look that hard, and when 2002 came around and my employer didn’t allow me to continue working remotely, I took on some contracting gigs, mainly because my significant other felt bad that I didn’t find anything yet…The contracting gigs paid well even during the tech blowup, but it wasn’t my long term lifestyle I wanted. Every Friday, I hopped on an SAN-SFO flight and came back SFO-SAN either on Saturday or at the latest Sunday. And, I wasn’t the only person on that flight that did that. That Friday flight was packed with techies that traveled between SFO-SAN or SJC-SAN. Even with that housing was cheaper, lifestyle was still better. I continued contracting gigs for 1 year until I found an opportunity down here with a large company HQ’d in bay area with a large office down here, and my comp package was close to bay area comps…

I don’t think too many people working remotely in SD for a company in LA or SF would have any logistical issues in doing what I basically did 20 years ago. That’s certainly better than some people I know who work in the defense sector that have to drive to Malibu from Poway 1-2 days each week, who have been doing this for some time.

[flyer]

Per the comment below, it looks like many people will still be working remotely going forward. We have friends and some family, who love working from home and know they can continue to do so indefinitely. Luckily, most bought their dream homes prior to the pandemic, so it’s working out well.

Still don’t think that segment of society alone will make or break the housing market–there’s a lot of money flowing from elsewhere. With all that’s going on in the world, this may prove to be the least of our problems. Still hoping for the best on that front.

“Upwork estimates that 1 in 4 Americans over 26% of the American workforce will be working remotely through 2021. They also estimate that 22% of the workforce (36.2 Million Americans) will work remotely by 2025. Jan 16, 2022”

[Coronita]

Forgot another important reason why consumer gold jewelry is, most of the time, a crappy investment….

6. Sales tax….Almost all consumer jewelry in CA is subject sales tax. That’s 7.75% in SD, and up to 8.25% in other counties. So right off the bat, if you you buy consumer jewelry as an “investment” you lose around 8% in your value if you were to sell it right back.

Gold bullion is NOT subject to sales tax if it’s $1500 or above….That’s why you should always buy at least 1 ounce of gold bullion per transaction. If you buy 1/3 ounce bars, for instance, that’s subject to state sales tax.

You probably already know this DZ if you are serious about precious metal investments, but in case you werent aware…

https://www.jmbullion.com/tax/california/

[quote]
California Gold & Silver Bullion / Collectible State Sales Taxes
Rules and Regulations for the State of California
The State of California requires the collection of use taxes on certain products sold by JM Bullion and delivered to a California address. These taxes must be collected on (1) nonmonetized bullion made from copper, platinum, or palladium; (2) monetized bullion, nonmonetized gold or silver bullion, or numismatic coins if the total amount of a single sales transaction is less than $1,500; (3) accessory items; and (4) processed items. All other products sold by JM Bullion are exempt from these taxes.

The following definitions apply to products on which taxes must be collected in California:

Nonmonetized Bullion. Bullion which has been smelted or refined and has a value dependent primarily upon its precious metal content and not upon its form.
Monetized Bullion. Coins or other forms of money manufactured of gold, silver, or other metal and heretofore, now, or hereafter used as a medium of exchange under the laws of California, the United States, or any foreign nation. The medium of exchange must have had a legal status equivalent to legal tender.
Numismatic Coins. Coins which have an external value above and beyond the base value of the underlying precious metal, due to the item’s rarity, condition, age, or other external factor.
Single Sales Transaction. Determined per invoice, and not on a line-item basis.
Accessory Items. Items such as holders, tubes, coin flips, and apparel.
Processed Items. Precious metals that have been processed by third parties into items that are valued on more than their precious metal content, such as statues or colorized coins.
Use taxes in California are calculated at checkout on the JM Bullion website based on (1) the taxability of products sold by JM Bullion in California set forth above, and (2) the specific tax rates established by the taxing jurisdiction of the delivery address in California.

JM Bullion began collecting use taxes in California on April 1, 2019. Our use tax license number in California is 257602304.

If you are a California-based reseller and wish to file a Reseller Certificate with JM Bullion, please download the California Reseller Certificate form here. Once you have filled out this form, either email it to [email protected]om; or mail it to JM Bullion, Inc., 11700 Preston Road, Suite 660153, Dallas, TX 75230. Once we receive your completed Reseller Certificate, we will enter it into our system, and you will not be charged use taxes on future orders as long as your Reseller Certificate remains valid and in force.

PLEASE NOTE: THE ABOVE IS NOT A COMPREHENSIVE DESCRIPTION OF SALES TAX LAWS AND REQUIREMENTS IN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA. IT IS ONLY INTENDED TO PROVIDE THE READER WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THOSE SALES TAX LAWS AND REQUIREMENTS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA THAT RELATE TO THE READER’S TRANSACTIONS WITH JM BULLION. IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO RESEARCH THE SALES TAX LAWS AND REQUIREMENTS IN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA, WE SUGGEST YOU VISIT THE CALIFORNIA TAX SERVICE CENTER LOCATED AT https://WWW.TAXES.CA.GOV/.
[/quote]

[Coronita]

Rare vintage wine makes better investments than most consumer grade jewelry BTW. At least you know what you are getting. Well sort of… People in asian pay $100-$150 for empty vintage wine bottles, because they take them and make fake wine and sell it over there with the same label. I’m not kidding.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Coronita]Rare vintage wine makes better investments than most consumer grade jewelry BTW. At least you know what you are getting. Well sort of… People in asian pay $100-$150 for empty vintage wine bottles, because they take them and make fake wine and sell it over there with the same label. I’m not kidding.[/quote]

Not far off. Just got some wine delivered. Cost for 6 bottles with tax and shipping is $783. Dropping it off to someone tomorrow who’s paying me $1900. That means the other 6 I bought are free (though I may sell down the road if my tastes change for even more) and I pocket a $340 profit. All the while our pal Chumlee here buys old watches on Craig’s list

[Coronita]

I just ordered 10 5 quart jugs of oil to my stock. I have 5 jugs left at home. Should be able to do oil changes for 2.5 years on the cars until the energy mess is straightened out or a car dies and I replace it with something electric

also bought about 50 oil filters. Each costs roughly $1 more than last year.

[sdrealtor]

I’ll drink to that

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’ll drink to that[/quote]

I tried drinking the oil, it didn’t taste so good. You know it’s too bad I need to get 3 different oil grades otherwise I’d just buy a big ole 55 gallon drum of oil, since it would take up less space.

German cars take 5w40 euro spec
Old Japanese cars take 5w30
New japanese cars take 0w20

Can’t mix and match…. I guess I could move all Japanese cars to 5w20 but I like to stick with the recommended oil weight from the manufacturer….

Too bad..

[Coronita]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/the-wealthy-bid-big-to-win-homes-in-supply-strapped-u-s-markets?srnd=premium

Ouch…. Got to hurt….

Wealthy Bid Big to Win Homes in Supply-Strapped U.S. Markets

The impatient and moneyed, trying to get ahead of expected increases in U.S. mortgage rates, are doing what it takes to win bidding wars for homes. That means going big.

This year through mid-February, 5,897 homes sold for at least $100,000 above the asking price, up from 2,241 a year earlier, according to a report by Redfin Corp. In the San Jose, California, metro area, 46% of sale prices reached that threshold, a jump from 20%.

San Jose, CA 46%
San Francisco, CA 40
Oakland, CA 30
Seattle, WA 17
Anaheim, CA 15
Los Angeles, CA 11
San Diego, CA 11
Boston, MA 5
Denver, CO 3
Newark, NJ 3

[Coronita]

DZ posts individual new articles about each company that is going to a hybrid mode, which isn’t that much of a surprise. But we’re posting report after report of trends in the tech job market and specific in san diego… Here’s a report about why office leases in San Diego haven’t fallen off a cliff.. Again, demand from life sciences and biotech, that as we said in threads above, require in-person offices since they are companies that require labs….

[img_assist|nid=27535|title=sd commericial re|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1000]

https://www.piggington.com/sd_commericial_re?size=_original

[sdrealtor]

I ordered myself back to the office today. Coffee is better here

[img_assist|nid=27536|title=The Office|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=75]

[teaboy]

[img_assist|nid=27537|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=399|height=300]

[sdrealtor]

LOL. I thought about changing it but appearing so tech unsavvy on a thread about tech workers just seemed like the more appropriate way to go