North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO Most long time home owners in SD either own outright or have mortgages in the 3’s possibly 2’s So they won’t be going anywhere soon IMO, sure there will be a few “must sell now”, but at some point the housing inventory will approach zero if current trend continues.[/quote]

I don’t know that either supply or demand goes to zero but agree that homeowners will and are digging in. We are basically there already where the amount of new inventory is quite subdued and demand even more subdued. We should get more build up next year but nothing like the levels of inventory we typically see. The market will be toughest on those who depend upon real estate transactions for a living especially lenders. Lots of agents have multiple gigs or working spouses in other fields. To the contrary people in the mortgage industry are more likely focused there and Breadwinners. Agents that are solo income providers for their household tend to be renters but lenders are far more likely to be homeowners. I did a couple dozen short sales for lenders last downturn. I expect a fair amount of pain among them again

[The-Shoveler]

I suspect with rents as high as they are maybe a lot less distressed sales (definitely nothing like 2008-11)

The economy has not really started printing recession numbers quite yet, But it does look like my theory that TPTB will do almost anything to avoid recession may be proven wrong. We will see soon probably.

[ncsd760]

I know the temperature has cooled since Sitio Abeto didn’t go flying off the market this weekend. Truly one of the most spectacular (resale) tract homes I’ve seen in a while.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=ncsd760]I know the temperature has cooled since Sitio Abeto didn’t go flying off the market this weekend. Truly one of the most spectacular (resale) tract homes I’ve seen in a while.[/quote]

Way too early. It takes time to deal with an offer or offers. We’ll know one way out the other later this week. But no question things have cooled

[sdrealtor]

Sorry got busy and forgot to post the numbers

New listings 11 (11) – still little coming on market

New Pendings of 16 (22) – and little selling

Thats -5

Closed sales at 18 (21)

Total houses for sale 98 (57) with median of $1.98M ($2.65M). Last year there was very little on low end left hence the high median

Continuing to see more sellers give up. We usually see lots take em off the market starting in Mid Nov for the holidays but it feels like its starting earlier

[sdrealtor]

[quote=ncsd760]I know the temperature has cooled since Sitio Abeto didn’t go flying off the market this weekend. Truly one of the most spectacular (resale) tract homes I’ve seen in a while.[/quote]

Acedera gave up after 30 days of trying. Agent remarks say they decided to stay but I know they kinda would prefer to go. I suspect we’ll see this house in the market again in the next year or two

[ncsd760]

There are a lot of really great homes sitting. Acedera was really nice, I always liked the Greystone II. In my old neck of the woods, wondering if Caliente will get any takers. That’s the floorplan with the primary suite on the first floor and the ocean view/rim lot. It’s pretty regular inside (probably newer floors, those weren’t an option or at least one that I ever saw fresh out of the box). I think ColRich used that lot (or one of its immediate neighbors) as the view on the brochure.

[sdrealtor]

Spoke to some agent friends. Market over $2m + very quiet at moment. Few lookers

[sdrealtor]

New listings 9 (19) – still little coming on market

New Pendings of 12 (28) – and little selling

Thats -3

Closed sales at 12 (24)

Total houses for sale 100 (59) with median of $1.99M ($2.5M).

Inventory went up a couple this week which happened last year also. No idea if that means anything.

Funny thing is a couple months ago I thought we might get flat y-o-y innventory here but not in MM. Fast forward and I think the opposite is true now. The higher interest rates seem to be hitting the higher priced inventory harder

[sdrealtor]

New listings 12 (14) – still little coming on market

New Pendings of 16 (22) – and little selling

Thats -4

Closed sales at 13 (23)

Total houses for sale 96 (49) with median of $1.99M ($2.65M).

Inventory edged back down but not like last year. I remember watching the flow last year and commenting how overheated the market was and it was like watching a powder keg getting ready to explode in the new year. Very different this year with market times mostly in the 30-60 day range

[XBoxBoy]

This thread continues to be the most interesting thing on piggington in a long while. Thanks for keeping it going!

[sdrealtor]

Glad to see others enjoy it. The thread keeps me looking at the market the same way each week and helps me find inflection points. If I had to guess now I think Spring will see well below average listing volume. The question i cant guess is how many buyers will be left?

[Rich Toscano]

Yes, these real time updates are cool. Thanks for continuing to do them.

[sdrealtor]

As for the market I hear lots of denial from colleagues but challenge any of them to show me a listing up here they sold in the last month that they couldnt have gotten at least 10% more in Spring. Here’s a good example. These two are 5 houses apart on the same side of the same street

This house listed early March and closed early April with multiple offers for $1.955M. Its mostly original condition and in need of a full makeover. Its the Plan 3 in its tract but its a very wonky floorplan that has always struggled to resell (note: Ive listed a few of these over the years). It backs to open space but the further you get to this end the more road noise you get and its a substandard size lot for the canyon lots. its also been a rental the last several years.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/2235-Paseo-Saucedal-92009/home/4081200

This house is listed now. They started at $1.699M went into escrow after a couple weeks and fell out. Its at $1.629M now. Its in mostly original condition but does have some a bit more updating. Its the Plan 2 in its tract which while slightly less sq ft uses the space much better and has always sold very quickly. It backs to open space but its further from the road noise and its has a better yard size in back. Its never been a rental

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/2255-Paseo-Saucedal-92009/home/4083021

It would be an understatement to say I know these homes well and how they have sold over the years. I could make a strong case that the one on the market would sell for more head to head but lets throw that out. Someone could make the case the other is bigger however there is no case that the one that sold in Spring could sell for more. Lets call them equal and say it sell for full asking (both a stretch IMO).

$1.955 – $1.629/$1.955 = 16.7% decline under the the most favorable of situations right here right now.

Oh and there is this one that sold the same time as #1. Its in the middle of the two houses. Same model as #2 with good but not great updating and pool that consumes most of the yard. It sold for $2.15M

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/2243-Paseo-Saucedal-92009/home/4081195

We’ll be down close to 20% by y/e from the peak up here if not already. Book it

[JPJones]

ARMAGEDDON! (I hope at least someone here gets that reference.)

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/consumer-price-index-september-2022-.html

20% by year end? Booked! Might even push that to 25% with today’s news on inflation. If we get 2 75pt rate hikes between November and December, we could see 30-35% down by y/e ’23.

This is getting weird.

[Author]

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