[temeculaguy]

OK, I’ll stick my neck out, 2001 prices are the floor and where we are headed, there will be variances due to location and condition. Anectdotal stories and scenarios about dying old men and yardwork are nice but not enough to be market force, just a catalyst to get us to 2001. It will get there, with these scenarios and others, some slower, some faster.

Now if you are in that 90% that will still have a stable income and if you are in the even smaller percentage with a down payment, you need to vaccinate yourself agaonst the doomsdayers. Some of you have only seen one cycle, some were only paying attention during one cycle, and still others think this cycle is different. This cycle is no different, just larger and the best time to buy is when nobody in their right mind would. If you wait for things to turn around, you will have waited too long, don’t make the same mistake a 2005 buyer did, don’t ignore fundamentals because of hysteria.

Most piggies ingnored the “R/E always goes up” hype and looked at the fundamentals, things like rent multiplier, median qualifying income and loan types. We saw the flaw and the eventual downturn. Now when it hits 2001 pricing in your area or even 2001 inflation adjusted pricing, realize that you are dinking the other flavor of koolaid.

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Nor La made a good point, he isn’t seeing the devastation everyone is talking about and reporting at the ground level. I’ll bet he didn’t see the massive incomes during the bubble years. I also see this, it wasn’t as good when it was good and it isn’t as bad when it is bad, the trick is to profit from the hype.

I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.

[temeculaguy]

OK, I’ll stick my neck out, 2001 prices are the floor and where we are headed, there will be variances due to location and condition. Anectdotal stories and scenarios about dying old men and yardwork are nice but not enough to be market force, just a catalyst to get us to 2001. It will get there, with these scenarios and others, some slower, some faster.

Now if you are in that 90% that will still have a stable income and if you are in the even smaller percentage with a down payment, you need to vaccinate yourself agaonst the doomsdayers. Some of you have only seen one cycle, some were only paying attention during one cycle, and still others think this cycle is different. This cycle is no different, just larger and the best time to buy is when nobody in their right mind would. If you wait for things to turn around, you will have waited too long, don’t make the same mistake a 2005 buyer did, don’t ignore fundamentals because of hysteria.

Most piggies ingnored the “R/E always goes up” hype and looked at the fundamentals, things like rent multiplier, median qualifying income and loan types. We saw the flaw and the eventual downturn. Now when it hits 2001 pricing in your area or even 2001 inflation adjusted pricing, realize that you are dinking the other flavor of koolaid.

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Nor La made a good point, he isn’t seeing the devastation everyone is talking about and reporting at the ground level. I’ll bet he didn’t see the massive incomes during the bubble years. I also see this, it wasn’t as good when it was good and it isn’t as bad when it is bad, the trick is to profit from the hype.

I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.

[temeculaguy]

OK, I’ll stick my neck out, 2001 prices are the floor and where we are headed, there will be variances due to location and condition. Anectdotal stories and scenarios about dying old men and yardwork are nice but not enough to be market force, just a catalyst to get us to 2001. It will get there, with these scenarios and others, some slower, some faster.

Now if you are in that 90% that will still have a stable income and if you are in the even smaller percentage with a down payment, you need to vaccinate yourself agaonst the doomsdayers. Some of you have only seen one cycle, some were only paying attention during one cycle, and still others think this cycle is different. This cycle is no different, just larger and the best time to buy is when nobody in their right mind would. If you wait for things to turn around, you will have waited too long, don’t make the same mistake a 2005 buyer did, don’t ignore fundamentals because of hysteria.

Most piggies ingnored the “R/E always goes up” hype and looked at the fundamentals, things like rent multiplier, median qualifying income and loan types. We saw the flaw and the eventual downturn. Now when it hits 2001 pricing in your area or even 2001 inflation adjusted pricing, realize that you are dinking the other flavor of koolaid.

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Nor La made a good point, he isn’t seeing the devastation everyone is talking about and reporting at the ground level. I’ll bet he didn’t see the massive incomes during the bubble years. I also see this, it wasn’t as good when it was good and it isn’t as bad when it is bad, the trick is to profit from the hype.

I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.

[temeculaguy]

OK, I’ll stick my neck out, 2001 prices are the floor and where we are headed, there will be variances due to location and condition. Anectdotal stories and scenarios about dying old men and yardwork are nice but not enough to be market force, just a catalyst to get us to 2001. It will get there, with these scenarios and others, some slower, some faster.

Now if you are in that 90% that will still have a stable income and if you are in the even smaller percentage with a down payment, you need to vaccinate yourself agaonst the doomsdayers. Some of you have only seen one cycle, some were only paying attention during one cycle, and still others think this cycle is different. This cycle is no different, just larger and the best time to buy is when nobody in their right mind would. If you wait for things to turn around, you will have waited too long, don’t make the same mistake a 2005 buyer did, don’t ignore fundamentals because of hysteria.

Most piggies ingnored the “R/E always goes up” hype and looked at the fundamentals, things like rent multiplier, median qualifying income and loan types. We saw the flaw and the eventual downturn. Now when it hits 2001 pricing in your area or even 2001 inflation adjusted pricing, realize that you are dinking the other flavor of koolaid.

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Nor La made a good point, he isn’t seeing the devastation everyone is talking about and reporting at the ground level. I’ll bet he didn’t see the massive incomes during the bubble years. I also see this, it wasn’t as good when it was good and it isn’t as bad when it is bad, the trick is to profit from the hype.

I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.

[temeculaguy]

One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment. Of the 10% that would be unemployed in the worse case scenario, what is the demographic make-up of that group. In good times 4-5% can’t find/keep a job even if they practically issue them. We all know or hear of some rich people and high level professionals that will be laid off but they aren’t really a big part of that 10%. Based on piggies alone, the niche markets will find support from the other 90% with jobs and those who played th downturn well. Those of you looking for prime North county coastal sfr’s still hoping to get another 50% from today’s levels probably need a new strategy. People jump on sdr but he throws up specific micro market facts and makes a cogent argument, countering with statewide or national figures or anectdotal stories isn’t convincing. Will Carmel Valley fall more in the coming year? YES. Will it fall like 4-s or SEH? NO! The bubble built communities will take a harder hit and an earlier hit, and they have. The even less premium towns have better fundamentals and will be rated a “buy” much sooner. Just because things aren’t as good as they were doesn’t mean there aren’t any rich people left, the blue collar folks always take a harder hit and always will. Don’t argue with it, don’t get mad, just figure out how to make it work for you. If you make under 200k, you cannot now and will not ever live in today’s priced 800k houses, make a halftime adjustment. Look for areas with potential, areas that have a bright future and areas you can afford. If things go down another 10-20% (which is my prediction) and they are still more than 3x your income, flip the map page, because 5 listings doesn’t spell catastrophie.

[temeculaguy]

One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment. Of the 10% that would be unemployed in the worse case scenario, what is the demographic make-up of that group. In good times 4-5% can’t find/keep a job even if they practically issue them. We all know or hear of some rich people and high level professionals that will be laid off but they aren’t really a big part of that 10%. Based on piggies alone, the niche markets will find support from the other 90% with jobs and those who played th downturn well. Those of you looking for prime North county coastal sfr’s still hoping to get another 50% from today’s levels probably need a new strategy. People jump on sdr but he throws up specific micro market facts and makes a cogent argument, countering with statewide or national figures or anectdotal stories isn’t convincing. Will Carmel Valley fall more in the coming year? YES. Will it fall like 4-s or SEH? NO! The bubble built communities will take a harder hit and an earlier hit, and they have. The even less premium towns have better fundamentals and will be rated a “buy” much sooner. Just because things aren’t as good as they were doesn’t mean there aren’t any rich people left, the blue collar folks always take a harder hit and always will. Don’t argue with it, don’t get mad, just figure out how to make it work for you. If you make under 200k, you cannot now and will not ever live in today’s priced 800k houses, make a halftime adjustment. Look for areas with potential, areas that have a bright future and areas you can afford. If things go down another 10-20% (which is my prediction) and they are still more than 3x your income, flip the map page, because 5 listings doesn’t spell catastrophie.

[temeculaguy]

One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment. Of the 10% that would be unemployed in the worse case scenario, what is the demographic make-up of that group. In good times 4-5% can’t find/keep a job even if they practically issue them. We all know or hear of some rich people and high level professionals that will be laid off but they aren’t really a big part of that 10%. Based on piggies alone, the niche markets will find support from the other 90% with jobs and those who played th downturn well. Those of you looking for prime North county coastal sfr’s still hoping to get another 50% from today’s levels probably need a new strategy. People jump on sdr but he throws up specific micro market facts and makes a cogent argument, countering with statewide or national figures or anectdotal stories isn’t convincing. Will Carmel Valley fall more in the coming year? YES. Will it fall like 4-s or SEH? NO! The bubble built communities will take a harder hit and an earlier hit, and they have. The even less premium towns have better fundamentals and will be rated a “buy” much sooner. Just because things aren’t as good as they were doesn’t mean there aren’t any rich people left, the blue collar folks always take a harder hit and always will. Don’t argue with it, don’t get mad, just figure out how to make it work for you. If you make under 200k, you cannot now and will not ever live in today’s priced 800k houses, make a halftime adjustment. Look for areas with potential, areas that have a bright future and areas you can afford. If things go down another 10-20% (which is my prediction) and they are still more than 3x your income, flip the map page, because 5 listings doesn’t spell catastrophie.

[temeculaguy]

One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment. Of the 10% that would be unemployed in the worse case scenario, what is the demographic make-up of that group. In good times 4-5% can’t find/keep a job even if they practically issue them. We all know or hear of some rich people and high level professionals that will be laid off but they aren’t really a big part of that 10%. Based on piggies alone, the niche markets will find support from the other 90% with jobs and those who played th downturn well. Those of you looking for prime North county coastal sfr’s still hoping to get another 50% from today’s levels probably need a new strategy. People jump on sdr but he throws up specific micro market facts and makes a cogent argument, countering with statewide or national figures or anectdotal stories isn’t convincing. Will Carmel Valley fall more in the coming year? YES. Will it fall like 4-s or SEH? NO! The bubble built communities will take a harder hit and an earlier hit, and they have. The even less premium towns have better fundamentals and will be rated a “buy” much sooner. Just because things aren’t as good as they were doesn’t mean there aren’t any rich people left, the blue collar folks always take a harder hit and always will. Don’t argue with it, don’t get mad, just figure out how to make it work for you. If you make under 200k, you cannot now and will not ever live in today’s priced 800k houses, make a halftime adjustment. Look for areas with potential, areas that have a bright future and areas you can afford. If things go down another 10-20% (which is my prediction) and they are still more than 3x your income, flip the map page, because 5 listings doesn’t spell catastrophie.

[temeculaguy]

One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment. Of the 10% that would be unemployed in the worse case scenario, what is the demographic make-up of that group. In good times 4-5% can’t find/keep a job even if they practically issue them. We all know or hear of some rich people and high level professionals that will be laid off but they aren’t really a big part of that 10%. Based on piggies alone, the niche markets will find support from the other 90% with jobs and those who played th downturn well. Those of you looking for prime North county coastal sfr’s still hoping to get another 50% from today’s levels probably need a new strategy. People jump on sdr but he throws up specific micro market facts and makes a cogent argument, countering with statewide or national figures or anectdotal stories isn’t convincing. Will Carmel Valley fall more in the coming year? YES. Will it fall like 4-s or SEH? NO! The bubble built communities will take a harder hit and an earlier hit, and they have. The even less premium towns have better fundamentals and will be rated a “buy” much sooner. Just because things aren’t as good as they were doesn’t mean there aren’t any rich people left, the blue collar folks always take a harder hit and always will. Don’t argue with it, don’t get mad, just figure out how to make it work for you. If you make under 200k, you cannot now and will not ever live in today’s priced 800k houses, make a halftime adjustment. Look for areas with potential, areas that have a bright future and areas you can afford. If things go down another 10-20% (which is my prediction) and they are still more than 3x your income, flip the map page, because 5 listings doesn’t spell catastrophie.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with some of your predictions, but have most areas in sd hit 50% declines? I do think it is a magic number, that and rent multiplier. I actually think it may be brisk sales for areas with the greatest declines and declining sales and prices for areas thus mostly immune. My prediction is that the areas with the greatest declines percentage wise will have the increase in sales. The areas with lower percentage declines will flounder, even if they are better places, status is becoming less chic and economizing is in. Even amongst piggies, there was a long thread about O’side vs. Carlsbad and most felt Carlsbad wasn’t worth twice the money since O’side had fallen harder, as the differential spreads wider, so will go the shoppers.

My reason for this thesis is that my valley has already seen sales increase dramatically, despite worldwide economic calamities and layoffs. Bidding wars, multiple offers, 5+ offers on listing day are common right now, in what should be a terrible time, the reason is entirely that the price is now right (for most, but not all listings). If SD sheds another 10-15% in the next four months, or if areas hit 50% off peak or 2001 pricing, it will take off and many will jump off the fence. According to Rich’s graph, detached are down 38% and condo about 48%, it just may get there by spring, but my guess is that some areas are down 50% and some are down 25%, so get your listings in the 50% areas. Since half the posters want to buy in Carmel Valley and it has been the stickiest, I predict that if it doesn’t start a quick chunk down, they will be looking a town or two over.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with some of your predictions, but have most areas in sd hit 50% declines? I do think it is a magic number, that and rent multiplier. I actually think it may be brisk sales for areas with the greatest declines and declining sales and prices for areas thus mostly immune. My prediction is that the areas with the greatest declines percentage wise will have the increase in sales. The areas with lower percentage declines will flounder, even if they are better places, status is becoming less chic and economizing is in. Even amongst piggies, there was a long thread about O’side vs. Carlsbad and most felt Carlsbad wasn’t worth twice the money since O’side had fallen harder, as the differential spreads wider, so will go the shoppers.

My reason for this thesis is that my valley has already seen sales increase dramatically, despite worldwide economic calamities and layoffs. Bidding wars, multiple offers, 5+ offers on listing day are common right now, in what should be a terrible time, the reason is entirely that the price is now right (for most, but not all listings). If SD sheds another 10-15% in the next four months, or if areas hit 50% off peak or 2001 pricing, it will take off and many will jump off the fence. According to Rich’s graph, detached are down 38% and condo about 48%, it just may get there by spring, but my guess is that some areas are down 50% and some are down 25%, so get your listings in the 50% areas. Since half the posters want to buy in Carmel Valley and it has been the stickiest, I predict that if it doesn’t start a quick chunk down, they will be looking a town or two over.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with some of your predictions, but have most areas in sd hit 50% declines? I do think it is a magic number, that and rent multiplier. I actually think it may be brisk sales for areas with the greatest declines and declining sales and prices for areas thus mostly immune. My prediction is that the areas with the greatest declines percentage wise will have the increase in sales. The areas with lower percentage declines will flounder, even if they are better places, status is becoming less chic and economizing is in. Even amongst piggies, there was a long thread about O’side vs. Carlsbad and most felt Carlsbad wasn’t worth twice the money since O’side had fallen harder, as the differential spreads wider, so will go the shoppers.

My reason for this thesis is that my valley has already seen sales increase dramatically, despite worldwide economic calamities and layoffs. Bidding wars, multiple offers, 5+ offers on listing day are common right now, in what should be a terrible time, the reason is entirely that the price is now right (for most, but not all listings). If SD sheds another 10-15% in the next four months, or if areas hit 50% off peak or 2001 pricing, it will take off and many will jump off the fence. According to Rich’s graph, detached are down 38% and condo about 48%, it just may get there by spring, but my guess is that some areas are down 50% and some are down 25%, so get your listings in the 50% areas. Since half the posters want to buy in Carmel Valley and it has been the stickiest, I predict that if it doesn’t start a quick chunk down, they will be looking a town or two over.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with some of your predictions, but have most areas in sd hit 50% declines? I do think it is a magic number, that and rent multiplier. I actually think it may be brisk sales for areas with the greatest declines and declining sales and prices for areas thus mostly immune. My prediction is that the areas with the greatest declines percentage wise will have the increase in sales. The areas with lower percentage declines will flounder, even if they are better places, status is becoming less chic and economizing is in. Even amongst piggies, there was a long thread about O’side vs. Carlsbad and most felt Carlsbad wasn’t worth twice the money since O’side had fallen harder, as the differential spreads wider, so will go the shoppers.

My reason for this thesis is that my valley has already seen sales increase dramatically, despite worldwide economic calamities and layoffs. Bidding wars, multiple offers, 5+ offers on listing day are common right now, in what should be a terrible time, the reason is entirely that the price is now right (for most, but not all listings). If SD sheds another 10-15% in the next four months, or if areas hit 50% off peak or 2001 pricing, it will take off and many will jump off the fence. According to Rich’s graph, detached are down 38% and condo about 48%, it just may get there by spring, but my guess is that some areas are down 50% and some are down 25%, so get your listings in the 50% areas. Since half the posters want to buy in Carmel Valley and it has been the stickiest, I predict that if it doesn’t start a quick chunk down, they will be looking a town or two over.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with some of your predictions, but have most areas in sd hit 50% declines? I do think it is a magic number, that and rent multiplier. I actually think it may be brisk sales for areas with the greatest declines and declining sales and prices for areas thus mostly immune. My prediction is that the areas with the greatest declines percentage wise will have the increase in sales. The areas with lower percentage declines will flounder, even if they are better places, status is becoming less chic and economizing is in. Even amongst piggies, there was a long thread about O’side vs. Carlsbad and most felt Carlsbad wasn’t worth twice the money since O’side had fallen harder, as the differential spreads wider, so will go the shoppers.

My reason for this thesis is that my valley has already seen sales increase dramatically, despite worldwide economic calamities and layoffs. Bidding wars, multiple offers, 5+ offers on listing day are common right now, in what should be a terrible time, the reason is entirely that the price is now right (for most, but not all listings). If SD sheds another 10-15% in the next four months, or if areas hit 50% off peak or 2001 pricing, it will take off and many will jump off the fence. According to Rich’s graph, detached are down 38% and condo about 48%, it just may get there by spring, but my guess is that some areas are down 50% and some are down 25%, so get your listings in the 50% areas. Since half the posters want to buy in Carmel Valley and it has been the stickiest, I predict that if it doesn’t start a quick chunk down, they will be looking a town or two over.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with sd, the raw data from websites is a mess. One big problem is they all count repos back to the bank as a sale, that isn’t a true market indicator and it can be a large chunk of the sales. Either get a realtor or study your area and make frequent visits, I found drinking with realtors and picking up the tab dislodged some info but each sale has a story. Some unusually low ones were inside rigged sales or the place was destroyed inside. redfin runs a few weeks behind but you get into the neighborhood pages by zip code and just pick the tab for recent sales, or have them mapped. Zillow blows, I don’t even check it anymore, redfin imports zillow’s only good info anyway. Your best bet is to visit every open house by driving the area on weekends, peeking through the windows on all listed vacants, talking to neighbors and talking to realtors, mix it altogether and you get an idea.

Once you get a good feel for the comps it helps you weed out uninformed realtors, it gives you ammunition to question them on it and if you see that they only show the three highest comps they are snowing you, only the three lowest, same deal. The best are those who will say “this one sold for x, but it was thrashed and had mold issues, this one sold for x but it had 100k in backyard landscaping” if you ended up telling them that info and you get the deer in headlights look, lose their business card.

[Author]

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