[temeculaguy]

Give a man a fish, feed him for a day. I read that somewhere. Funny how things change but stay the same. Hell, the habitat for humanity staff actually try to talk residents out of refinancing their 0% loans into subrpprime and only convince 35% to keep their loan. You can change the loan but you can’t change the person. Double the credit limit of every person with a maxed out credit card and show me that none of them hit their new max and I’ll agree that this will work. Give them economics classes, televise Robert Shiller’s lectures from Yale and reprogram their t.v.’s so he’s on every channel, I’d watch.

These ideas will get a lot of publicity but I doubt these programs get to many actual people, it’s just spin. Milton’s “invisible hand of economics” has never been denied by the government and it never will(sorry for the cheap econ 101 reference but he died this year and I still miss him).

On a side note I was driving home and heard a commercial for a law firm asking people who had a pay option or neg am mortgage to call an 800 number to join a class action lawsuit and it sounded just like an ambulance chaser personal injury ad. I wonder how many alternative loan products will be offered after the companies begin to factor litigation costs into them. Right or wrong, the legal costs are going to make the product vanish for at least a decade. Don’t believe me, ask small aircraft or silicone breast implant companies about what class actions can do to a product.

[temeculaguy]

I have been to almost all of the vacations spots on the pacific coast of Mexico, some of them quite a few times. I agree the others about the Canadians in Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, many times they are dominant tourist. While I like the Canadians they seem to tip so poorly that I get treated like a rock star for tipping high by American standards (usually 25% because so many of the service workers are awesome and I feel I have to make up for the Canadians). As far as Manzanillo, that would not be a vacation choice of mine again, it’s like going to Long Beach. It’s one of, if not the biggest commercial ports in Mexico. If you were looking to work in international trade, sure, but not for a retiree or a vacation. Puerto Vallarta seems to have the most ex-patriots in Latin America behind Costa Rica and Belize. I have relatives that have owned a second home there for twenty years with no problems and they probably spend four months a year there. P.V. even has a newspaper in English that caters to all the Americans. Personally ZIHUATANEJO is my favorite for a many reasons but it is on the sleepy side, depends what you are looking for. If there wasn’t so many things here I would miss I could probably be happy there.

Mexico has a long way to go before I am willing to invest there, things are too trendy, subject to local politics and marketing. Acapulco is a prime example, it was nice thirty years ago and it has gone downhill over the last decade, I see it starting to happen in other coastal towns in mexico while others spring up or improve, the money moves. Not to be ethnocentric, but American coastal towns are more stable as an investment, Imperial Beach and Oceanside will allways be Imperial Beach and Oceanside. Del Mar, La Jolla and Carlsbad will always be Del Mar, La Jolla and Carlsbad. Their stability and place in the pecking order have not changed in my lifetime. Oceanside may improve and increase in price but you can bet they won’t pass Del Mar in mere decades, I don’t think in my lifetime anyone will say “Del mar and La Jolla used to be nice but now it is such a ghetto.” When buying real estate you can’t have complete stability but you look at historical trends and try for what stability you can find.

[temeculaguy]

There is price protection floors at each level, just as there is with the stock market. I would be suspect of anything that closes over asking prices right now but for every 5% drop in nominal price, another group of the population qualifies for the purchase. Logically if homes are priced lower than the month before, more potential buyers exist at those levels. The incredibly difficult part is the emotional component doesn’t always follow logic, on the way up or way down. The other variable is that lending is tightening and loan programs are being phased out making it harder to figure it all out because the market has lost an unknown number of potential buyers right off the top (actually bottom), your guess is as good as mine as to how much of a percentage drop is required to recoup the number lost.

[temeculaguy]

Angelo exercised and sold more of his stock this week but I don’t think it is because of his lack of confidence in his own company, I think it reflects an increase in the prices at the tanning salon. That dude is trying to make George Hamilton look pale. I disagree with what Angelo keeps saying about his company’s low exposure to sub prime, My neighbor works for Countrywide and he told me a year ago that option ARMS (neg am, which is alt a) weren’t just popular, they were the only loans he does.

[temeculaguy]

Dean i take some of it back, I posted before you replied. We are about the same age and bought our first home at about the same time, so you have to see the difference. An e-4 can’t buy a house today without a toxic time bomb mortgage nor can his supervisor. A cop, fireman or teacher can’t buy. I bought my first house at 21 and I supervise a bunch of twentysomethings today with good jobs who literally cannot buy anything other than a converted apartment in a ghetto and that is still a stretch, it’s not apples and apples but I am pretty certain it will be again.

[temeculaguy]

I have to back both sd and SD realtors, I value both their opinions but they don’t share one, they usually disagree unless it’s a technical issue. If you assumed it was the same poster that person would look a little crazy, but it’s not. It’s ironic DCARLSO would target either, they are usually the voice of reason and deflect many attacks accusing them of being industry cheerleaders. I like their posts because they offer real insight into how I am going to profit from a down market and the psyche of actual buyers. I know houses aren’t going to cost five dollars and I know they won’t go up for a few years, what they bring is real data and opinion to fill in the middle. DCARLO, you are an articulate man, but you haven’t brought anything yet other than finger wagging, so if you wan’t the respect of others, bring it. What is your opinion? When and where will the market go in your opinion? Inquiring minds want to know. We know you hate computers but you aren’t shagging babes and making money like the DONALD just yet, you’ve got time for us idle internet users.

P.S. this internet group probably contains the only adult males not looking at internet porn (or at least taking a break from it) so I refuse to be insulted for using it as my chosen media outlet during my free time, maybe I should log off and start my backlog of oprah on tivo. This is the newspaper and the barbershop of this century, so get over it.

[temeculaguy]

Aztec, you are bright young guy with a good plan, it will work for you and I am proud of you for buying what you could afford, very few in your age bracket can see that. By your name I’m gonna guess you went to SDSU, so did I and one of my fraternity brothers bought in Alta Murrieta before firemans park was there about a month after graduation. I visited him and that is what brought me to the area. You are right, I think his mortgage was well under a grand, mine was. I moved a few months later and my mortgage was less than my rent for an apartment in cardiff. It’s amazing that a single guy right out of college 18 years ago who had barely started his career could buy a house that you can’t today, that will change, it almost has to because you are the future market.

[temeculaguy]

DCARLSO, if you are really Dean Carson I just checked out your site and the link to market conditions. If that is you and you wrote the narrative it was pretty realistic and in line with a lot of people think on this site. The note about subprime hurting the low end and entry level while the median price being artificially held up by the million plus market. I especially like the part about good neighborhood with the best schools are the best bet, makes sense to me.

I do take offense to the accusations that those of us who are fence sitting lack bravery or those of us who wish calamity on others are somehow playing with karma. While I am not in the R/E business I have owned homes through more than one cycle and intend to learn from my own history of being upside down and from making a sizable profit. Most of us have many friends and co-workers who have taken the bait and purchased beyond their means, zero down, interest only, neg am, etc. and we have also seen those and others take their equity out. We didn’t think any of that was wise and over the past few years we may have voiced our opinions only to be proven wrong by a market that behaved in a way that blew all the records away. I made money overall in the dot com craze but I would have made more had I gotten conservative near the end, if only I had seen it coming. Today’s S.D. real estate market has the same feel to me, the writing on the wall is too cogent and I intend to analyze the data and make a sound investment decision. In the dot com boom I ignored time tested fundamentals about P/E while I was suduced by the fact that I had cashed out my initial ivestment and was “playing with the house’s money.” I say you put down the Tony Robbins books for a while and pick up Lao Tzu’s Tao Te Ching “If you want to grab the world and run it, I can see you will not succeed…Manipulators mess things up, grabbers lose it.” Just a little excerpt from a 1000 bc sage, the ying yang guy, it’s funny because in that 3,000 years it has always been the same, what goes up comes down, flexible is better than strong. And if he were alive today I wonder if he would ammend it to say that all things will find balance except coastal real estate in good school districts. Maybe

[temeculaguy]

Holy crap, it looks like everything that was predicted is happening. Even David Lereah said on cnn that everything is fine except for San Diego and Miami. That guy takes far more than the recommended dose of happy pills and even he won’t back S.D., hell he won’t even go on T.V. today. Ken Heebner was just on Bloomberg and said prices will fall 20% and forelosures will set records not seen since the great depression. They invited the NAR’s economist to debate Heebner but he has laryngitis today (I think he’s in his pajamas in the fetal position with an empty bottle of whiskey next to him).

http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=144

What is your take sd? Is this the first shot or are forclosures still too small of the overall percentage of the market?

[temeculaguy]

Thanks Aztec, yes there are quite a few repos/nods in 92562 but I think about a hundred were part of that R.E. scam that was in the papers and on this site a few months back, most of their holding were in 92562, my problem is I already know where I want to live. I hope a lot of the jobs are subject to failure in the R.E. industry as Bugs pointed out but I just checked some stats on yahoo neighborhoods

http://realestate.yahoo.com/Neighborhoods

and found that 92592 had 75k median household and 83% home ownership. 92591 (north temec) and 92562 (murrieta) drop 8-10k in income (as you go further north it gets worse). I checked some north county inland areas (Vista, San Marcos, Esco) and found the income was in the 40’s and 50’s and the ownership in the 50% range. Poway was almost a dead heat with Temecula and carlsbad 92009 was only 8k higher in income with the same ownersip rates. These people are getting their money from somewhere and 75k median doesn’t come from jobs at the mall. Poway and Carlsbad houses are about double the price of Temecula yet the average Temeculan makes the same or almost the same money, if those areas dropped 50% they would be as affordable as Temecula is today, that’s what scares me as I wait for the bust.

92592 stats are skewed and that’s my hope against the argument above because there is not one single apartment building in the entire zip code, how’s that for planning. 56k residents of the zip 92592 and no apartments, six elementary schools, two middle schools and one high school without a single apartment dweller student. The schools in 92592 consistently take the top spot in Riv/San Bernadino, not in the top but “the” top spot. My point is, the bubble will hurt all areas but the most desirable area (not just a small enclave of nice) should do better, that’s why I’m staying in 92592 despite the deals I can get in nearby areas.

As far as infrastructure goes, only traffic is a lacking, with more than 1 officer per thousand residents they have more cops per capita than any s.d. town with the exception of carlsbad where they have 107 sworn to 92k residents, almost exactly what temecula has (currently 1 for every 943). The new hospital on 79 south will be over 200 beds, more than the other two existing hospitals combined and two new fire stations are nearing completion, it seems to me infrastructure is catching up. I am absolutely certain where I want to live within a two mile radius, the only question is when to strike.

[temeculaguy]

I agree it is and will always be a commuter suburb, which is why I mentioned the benefits of being on the south side for it’s appeal to the s.d. commuter. I threw the jobs data in because I just read an article about the increase of jobs per resident. I will say that the West side of the freeway is now full of business parks. I don’t work in town so I don’t know who they all are but Guidant is a big medical product manufacturer (shunts, stints, fake hearts) and one of the largest employers in town, so big that they actually have a tram to take their employees to their parking lots, not being in that industry i have no clue if those are good jobs but I bet they are better than retail jobs. Just from the parents of my kids sports teams I know employees of American Semiconductor and the Outdoor channel both have headquarters in town, I’ve done no research, just sideline talk and hardly a scientific study. My point is contradictory to my hopes, I want things to crash so I can buy at a great price, but my mind is telling me that it isn’t the same situation it was 16 years ago and 23109’s issue of his 350k purchase is well below comps and is also within the price range of the current demographic. I don’t see everyone’s balance sheet but the average Temeculan has changed since I moved here in 92, they appear to be higher on the social ladder and that makes me fear that I won’t get the deal I am hoping for. Please talk me out of it because I visited a new development today and I liked it and can afford it with conventional financing, that makes me in danger of falling of the bubble wagon.

[temeculaguy]

I think you will find that the residents of Carlsbad, Del Mar, Encitias, etc. don’t need to drive to get “anywhere.” A long time ago I lived in Cardiff and rarely went more than ten miles in my car, ever. Those areas have jobs, schools, stores, entertainment and beaches. You don’t have to leave. If they can throw down a cool million for their house I don’t think $4 gas is going to ruin them.

[temeculaguy]

Only in the rear view mirror will you be able to figure out rock bottom. As far as this area goes, this is my second time through the cycle here and my 16th year in town. In 1992 it was a different town, now Temecula has over 500 jobs per 1000 residents (murrieta still is in the mid 200’s) but the two towns can be almost considered the same market. In 1992 and 1998 (my last two purchases) almost everyone worked elsewhere, now it is more autonomous and a recent nctimes article predicted commuters will be commuting to Temecula in the near future. In 1998 on my street of sixteen houses almost everyone commuted, now there are only two of us who drive more than 20 minutes. I was wrong in 1992 and right in 1998. I am looking to purchase again and think this fall will be a good time. I am not looking to hit the absolute bottom, just close, and when things are affordable for me then my guess is that they will be affordable for others. 300k for a 2000 sq. would be ideal (another 50-60k to go), my fingers are crossed. 300k would mean a loan of 200k on a 100k salary so i won’t be stretched at all and I will stay for years, if that house falls to 200k later i still won’t lose my house, that for me is when it is time to buy.

As you get into Murietta you lose marketability to the San Diego commuter (but you might gain it to the o.c.). My last purchase in Redhawk was particularly good because residents there can exit the freeway in SD county at Rainbow canyon, thus avoiding the border patrol checkpoint and the traffic. There is no more land south of Redhawk as it becomes National forrest and indian reservation land for twenty miles so there will only be limited new homes, all of the development and traffic is to the north. Currently I can get to Esco/Vista/San marcos in under 30 minutes during rush hour and that is why many of the S.D. commuters buy their second Temecula home in the South. My old house on the Temecula/Murrieta border off Winchester is almost twice the commute time during rush hour.

With all that said, we fall and rise with S.D., when prices decline there people don’t flee to Temecula and when prices rise there, they start coming back and drive up the price. Rents on the other hand seem to stay low here, few people move here unless they are families that purchase. Lake Elsinore, Perris, Corona and Menifee are suburbs of Riverside but Temecula is a suburb of San Diego despite what the map says.

[temeculaguy]

Try to hold your landlord off off a little longer and you may not have to sweat the other 20%. I just spent the day looking at houses in Temecula but only in 92592. A new tract opened today in Wolf Creek, undercutting to going rate and I found at least five examples of model match new listings of resales in Redhawk and Vail, undercutting others by 15-25%. I found a new listing in Vail Creek today for 320 and it was one of the nicer and bigger ones, until monday it was 400k for a brown lawn repo and that was the cheapest, in the Redhawk Fairways gated I found a 410k that said “lowest in community” and it was on Monday, at least two more just listed in the threes. I even saw a condo in the new temecula creek listed for 230 (still a rip because it’s a an apartment you buy) but on Monday the cheapest was like 289. There are more examples but I’m still checking how comparable they really are. At any rate, I think the crack in the armor is just starting to show in Temecula, it’s not just the occasional price misprint, they are starting to panic, panic is in the air, I am almost giddy. Now the hard part starts when we have to guess the bottom.

[temeculaguy]

The Vehicle code he is using is for “speed contest,” so I doubt he is chp, they hate telling the parents their kid is dead after racing, no glory or inside joke in that.

I followed your other threads and I know your temptation with what is really a good price but you have to look at what TemekuT said about the property taxes, you are screwing yourself by adding 25% to your property taxes (which at 1.9 to start and 2.5 after the scam is a lot of money, year after year).

The only thing I can say is that if you have been renting and haven’t saved enough for a down payment, this is going to put you under, which is exactly why subprimes imploded. The reson 23109 is a law is to protect teens from killing themselves and there is a reason that banks want you to be able to afford a loan. If you are able to pull this off in the end the bank may lose a little money but the bank will still be there and the banker will still have a house, you on the other hand will have ruined your credit and be without a house. You found your way to piggington so you have to be smarter than the knuckleheads being interviewed in front of their homes by the media doing stories on foreclosures. Those “victims” and the legistlators rushing to their aid are claiming because someone let them buy a house they couldn’t afford then it has to be that someone’s fault.

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