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temeculaguy
ParticipantAll markets are different but I have been following some specific properties and as I see them reduce their price I know it would have sold three or six months ago at that price. At their current price they will be lowering again in three months because the new listings are showing up at 5-10% under their reduced price, sometimes the new, lower priced ones are bigger or better and I wonder don’t they ask themselves “who will buy mine if they can get that one for less.” But it goes back to that irate fisbo from another thread, being delusional and trying to prop up the market by yourself will cost you in the end, get what you can while you can. I don’t know what it costs a realtor to list a property but some are so far out of whack with the competition I wonder why the agent even took it. SD that agent that listed that condo last year, what do you think that cost him in time and money since he saw 0 income from it. My observations are that there are still sales happening it is just with the more aggresively priced stuff. Maybe it a good thing overall, the shakeout of the unsophisticated subprime buyers will also shake out the unsophisticated newbie realtors.
I know that most lawyers who don’t feel they have a fair chance at winning a case won’t take it on a percentage basis and require hourly pay, thus bringing some complainants back to reality. From my personal experience I was trying to unload a house ten years ago or so in a down part of the last cycle, interviewed listing agents and chose one, don’t even remember why, probably a billboard I saw. After six months, few showings and no offers it delisted. A few months later a friend somewhat in the know hooked me up with a realtor who sold his house, he said I list at a certain price or he wont take it, I angrily agreed. He explained the market was different than when i bought and we should start out at reasonable price rather than price in the negotiations becuase ultimately I wanted what he wanted to list at. Two full price offers on the same day about three weeks later and six months later that price would not be seen again for years. Of course it tripled over the ten years, damn I should have kept it. Wait a minute, if i had ignored sound advice i would have profited from luck, no wonder i can’t figure this stuff out.
ParticipantSD how much did he lose by wasting last year with the agent that told him what he wanted to hear? Let us know how much lower your listing reccomendation is this time around. I just want to know what the total cost is have wind blown up your skirt.
April 20, 2007 at 9:36 PM in reply to: Renters are foolish??? “5 lousy excuses not to buy a home” . . . per MSN #50686ParticipantI read the article and it seemed to target people that have never or will never buy a home, which doesn’t depict the average piggintonian. Most of us who are on the sidelnes (either by circustance or strategy) understand the merits of homeowneship, we are just trying to time the market and predict futuere trends. The article is quite pedestrian, bringing up such elementary concepts such as the fact that owneship has tax benefits and rent increase protection, funny no mention of toxic mortgages or record foreclosures. I think my 13 year old would have found that article beneath him intellectually.
ParticipantI wonder if there is a relationship between the attractiveness of one type of investment vs. increase in price of another. People have to park their money somehwhere and right now real estate, mortgage backed securities and related funds have lost their shine. I know there are other factors in play but I always hear permabulls for either stocks or R/E compare themselves against each other and use as if they were in competition for the hearts, minds and dollars of the investors. When people abandon a ship, don’t they have to find another ship to climb on.
Participant23109, It can be a condo by the way the land is owned and not neccesarily if it is attached. Maybe someone else knows why they do this but it is common when the lots are real small, perhaps a way to get some rules changed and have the houses closer or streets smaller. The five houses above that I posted links to, 2200-2400 sq ft, front yard, back yard, driveway, not attached but they are condo’s, just looked at some new ones last week, same thing. Doesn’t bother me but it does change things slightly. It’s not perfect, but if you go on zillow and float over the various tracts, if zillow doesn’t draw lot lines around houses, usually that is because they are condos. I checked that in harveston and it wasn’t drawing the lines. One of the other will probably be able to say for sure.
ParticipantWlecome back old friend, I noticed in my search for under 400k in 92592 zip that there are now 3 car garages again. I think this one just joined us in the sub 4 lounge, probably couldn’t get anyone to ask her to dance in the 4-5 room.
I counted three of them today, but I wasn’t counting before so thay may have been there before. The one above and the other two were built during the last down cycle and suffer from the same low end features plus the mid nineties disease of high bedroom count without supportive sq.feet. All three were long in the tooth compared to their peers and looked to have original circa 1995 freebie appliances, counters and floors. But hell, welcome back anyway, I’ll wait for the better looking younger sister from generation heloc but it’s nice to see the three car models back at the party.
Temeku, your post got bumped back down, so if you didn’t see my thank you above, I appreciate the insight, think you are right on with your analysis
ParticipantI posted before i read Bugs’ post, we were only 11 minutes apart and I took about fifteen minutes to check things, get wine and do math with wine. So I wasn’t copying and can save the “copy a friend” lifeline for another time. Plus bugs is a lot smarter than I am. Sticking with 280, final answer, plus the stuff a mile from harveston is older and was built much cheaper, those tracts on the other side of margarita were larger but lower end.
ParticipantGoin on a limb, 280-300 for turnkey condition, plus or minus 30k for ups or downs (ups would be location, upgrades, downs would be location or thrashed brown lawn repos that need work and suffered long vacancies/neglect. broad spectrum 250-330. Harveston is in 65k median zipcode and 5x median is 325, 2003 was the actual high time before run up was artificially extended by pardigm shift in lending so 2003 will be the return numbers. If 2003 had ended as the high point as history normally would have it four years later actually back at 2003 prices with no real nominal loss in value but an inflation adjusted drop five years later. Harveston may do a little better because they are newer and more energy efficient plus born into the heloc era most will have some money sunk into upgrades that even during a downturn still add value. Even in a repo I’ll pay more if the flooring, counters and appliances are upgrades vs. the crap I’m gonna rip out day one. Final answer, 280 for that exact house, good as it gets. Vegas should post odds or mark burnett makes it into a reality/game show, I’m down for $20 on 280
ParticipantThanks Temeku, I appreciate the research and I agree with your opinions, so if they roast you, they will be roasting me too. Right or wrong this this next purchase will be my primary home with a miniumum stay of at least 6-7 years, probably much more so I look at it a little differently than I have with investment properties. I know what I want, where I want it and what I want to pay. For the past 12-18 months these things didn’t line up and I am just too stubborn to do anything other than a 20% down fixed loan that is under 28% of my monthly income. Just in the last month they are starting to line up with my income and downpayment numbers so hard part has started. Six months ago I told myself I would wait until prices hit a certain number and thought it would take a year or two but it is happening quicker than I guessed. Sure I will take more house than I really wanted or have even a lower payment. my next marker is PITI at 25% of my gross, but when that hits I will be here even more, using piggington as my alcoholics annonymous, giving me support to keep riding it out. At some point it will just be greed on my part and I think you will end up being correct, that 300-350 will probably be that point. Incidentally 300 is 4x median income for the zip code, which would be the low end of a historical graph, yet in line with 2003, seems possible.
ParticipantTemeku, how do you find things like days on market and debt, on a grantee search I can only find the lender name, NOD’s, etc, but I have to get the name from forclosure.com which lists names on nod, but not addy. Are you in the biz and have access not avail to the public or can I subcribe to realtytrac or similar and get it.
As far as those two, I check the mrmls 3x a week and go on walks in my area, I see signs go up and go down then up again then on foreclosure.com, sometimes within days or weeks so I try to remember them off the top of my head or log the ones I like in a notebook, but as evidenced by your research, I can be highly inaccurate, especially since I was trying to match sizes for what 23109 is looking for and not really what I want to buy. I can be wrong on the D.O.M since I usually search for under 400 and if a recent price drop puts it under 400 I guess it looks new to me. Those ones on escalon, alagon, almora were always in the 400’s, three months ago 439 would be a steal but now two dropped below 4 and one is barely above so I started to pay attention, plus a month ago when i walked through it was riddles with for sale signs, despite being built in 2003 so they should have a little equity since they went in the 200’s new. How can someone try to sell for 399 with over 500 in liens against it?
Since you have more info than i do, what is you opinion on what i view as price drops and a lot more distressed stuff coming on the market in our area, i want to pay 300 to 350 for 2000 sq ft 3br under 10 years old (small lot is fine) in redhawk or wolf, no vail. Think it will happen?
For clarification the second link (escalon) looks furnished and the first (decada)looks vacant at least from the photos, plus decada claims to have been the model.
this one is the highest
2nd place
and this
but this one claimed to be the cheapest at 414k
but this one is lower as are the two I posted before so the self proclaimed cheapest has three priced below it.
I checked the megans law site and no molesters moved in, so what gives.
ParticipantI think lenders are going to start scrutinizing appraisals more as we move forward and may use only specific trusted appraisers. I remember in the mid 90’s a lender wouldn’t accept an appraisal in a purchase I made because they didn’t know him and was afraid he was the realtors buddy (which he was), maybe Bugs can confirm this practice. There was no deception in that deal, but R/E wasn’t going up at the time and they are not in the business of losing money so they felt safer with someone they trusted. Money hasn’t completely tightened but it does so more every day, I think these transactions will become less prevelant. BTW the Murrieta scam was very similar in appearance and it alarmed the reputable realtors enough to refuse to do business with them and to report it. Big cashback at closing, never make a payment, run with the money on someone else’s credit.
ParticipantHe’s not really walking away from 75k, I think I remember from another post that it is a 3/3 and 1900 sq ft. with taxes and assoc on the higher end. You are right, not paying realtors is 25k right there, and he’d lose 3k a month sitting empty with an average time on the market, another 12k, gated newer redhawk homes on small lots are listing just under 400, here’s two in the fairways just listed http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=1&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=400000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=18163257
One is 2200 sq the other 2400 sq., that tract has gone down 20-50k in the last ninety days, a nicer model match was 489k just 60 days ago (went foreclosure)and the comps support 450k, but one is now for rent at 1650 so it still doesn’t support investment numbers. Probably 10-20% of the ones in that little four street are for sale and in months, I don’t know of one sale. They are the smallest and have the smallest lots of the four development gated subcommunity built by the same builder.
Woodside just released 2200 sq ft homes at 350-370k 1.5 miles away with in Wolf. I wouldn’t be so skeptical of your landlord, he’s going for convenience, the sure thing and trying to avoid the bad press of the dissapointing spring/summer sales without taking any chances he gets out intact, he had to make it a win for you to make it happen. Sounds like he is probably more informed than the average seller who is basing their price on what they need to sell for and quickly seeing neighbors list for less, chasing the rabbit down the hole. In a crude analogy, it’s getting close to closing time, very few women are left in the bar, rather than go for the best looking one remaining, drop to the third best looking and avoid ending up alone or with the ugliest. Bar strategy can almost always be applied to life.
He knows what is happening, he knows he can list for 430 but it wont sell, he could list for 400 but will probably get lowballed and pay realtors. Why would anyone pay even 400 when they can get more sq ft for less in a comparable area like redhawk. He probably knows this and he is giving you a fair deal but you’ve said before it is smaller than what you really want and you shouldn’t buy temporary housing in this market, get what you want even if it means waiting.
ParticipantSold for real or not the marketing tactic worked because it caused you to think maybe these are priced well. I would assume the first phase of any project would have the strongest sales because there has to a few people who the location is perfect for, they may work close by, have family really close, etc. and they have watched the models being built and began planning months ago. 8 condos seems small for a phase, small phases seems to be the latest tactic. I visited a development that just opened and they released only six houses but they poured 12 foundations. It would look better to sell out a very small phase rather than open all twelve even though certain unreleased lots might appeal to certain buyers.
How do they compare to resales in the area, I have found developers just starting a tract are priced much better than those that have been open for a year, they can, they won’t lose any sales in progress by lowering prices.
ParticipantFrom a look at yahoo maps, it will be adjacent to only two streets in Harveston (corrigan pl and medford rd). I don’t think it will be like having disneyland next door because it will only be open something like a hundred days a year, closes at sundown and nothing makes noise. It also won’t connect to harveston by street or share any access roads. It may be an improvement for those streets creating a buffer from the freeway view and freeway noise. It’s supposed to be just feet from the freeway which gives it free advertisement and that is dead land anyway. I don’t think it is any worse than living by a high school or a sports park. Plus daytime noise isn’t really noticable and it doesn’t open early in the am. I lived about a mile from a high school until earlier this year and the only complaints I had was traffic, band practice at 6 am on weekends and football games at night (could only really hear the P.A.). Ever notice how you can rarely hear you neigbors kids in the pool during the day but at night you hear everything six houses away.
here is Knotts soak city palm springs hours for this year
http://www.knotts.com/soakcity/ps/hours.shtml
its peak days in the summer are 10-6, april may is 11-5 and half the time it’s closed and it’s closed half the year (plus palm springs is hotter longer each year), pretty much in line with the school schedule, waterparks are not the tourist draw that amusement parks are (500 spot parking lot compared to 20-40k daily attendance for major parks). Wih that said, you could become the popular guy in town, We will take our kids and have beer in your backyard.
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