[temeculaguy]

It may be too soon to tell how Wolf Creek will fare, but the community of about 10,000 people a few hundred yards behind it is called Redhawk (built in the early 1990’s). Despite it’s proximity to the casino it has remained one of the best areas to live in that valley. I lived in Redhwak for eight years and the interesting thing was that only one woman on my street had a job. Most of the families lived there in order afford to have a stay at home mom, a luxury they couldn’t afford in San Diego. A few of them had taken their equity from nicer parts of S.D. or O.C. and paid cash for their house. What is more suprising is that the high school within walking distance to the casino has the highest test scores in all of Riverside/San Bernadino counties, only rivaled in S.D. by the likes of Poway and San Diegueto districts. It may not make a lot of sense but the casino did not cause the societal decay I was expecting.

Wolf Creek was started during the bubble years and the prices were double or triple compared to when Redhawk was built so the residents may not be able to afford to have one parent stay home. That is a dynamic affecting most areas of California, so only time will tell what the affect will be.

[temeculaguy]

I’ve been watching that one and wondering the same, how low will it go? If something like that gets to the mid 200’s I’d probably buy it. I’d rather be in Redhawk or Wolf Creek but Vail Ranch probably has more subprimes. I think wolf creek will have considerable repos because they were all purchased 04 to 07 and many of the tracts have lowered prices below what hundreds of people paid. I wonder how these banks can survive the next six months without moving these repos.

[temeculaguy]

[temeculaguy]

Temeku, since you seem to have some good insight do you why there appears to be so many brown lawn pre-repos in Morgan across from the elementary school on Sattui street. I drove through the area today and while most of it seems to be holding up very well, that one neighborhood is riddled with them. Sattui street alone had 4 or 5, the little cul-de-sac part of Sattui to the east only had 9 or so houses and 3 were obviously vacant, lawns dying yet no for sale signs. Was that tract overpriced or maybe those were part of the r.e. scam that hit Murietta. I didn’t drive through the rest of that neighborhood but from i read of that scam they bought multiples in the same neighborhoods.

[temeculaguy]

There’s a reason. That one is in the North East edge of Murrieta and too old. It is conveniently within walking distance to an airport and the jail. I used to live about a mile from there and there’s nothing more appealing than realizing your nearest gas station or market is also the nearest gas station for anyone released on foot from jail and couldn’t get a ride. Older, low-end, non-HOA in bad locations like that one will be among the first casualties of the subprime meltdown because thier potential buyer just became unqualified for a loan. The brown lawns are a dead givaway in well kept or newer neighborhoods but there it can just be caused by lawn parking or improper diposal of used motor oil.

[temeculaguy]

I think some of the banks are slow to understand the local markets. One street I am looking at had four listings on the street and the bank repo was the smallest and the highest priced with an out of county realtor. It’s not the first time I’ve seen it. The worst part of the scenario is that the other three had been languishing on the market for months so a five minute internet search could let anyone know what a reasonable price would be, I would think the REO guy at the bank would look at something other than what they loaned when pricing it. With prices falling every day and an avalanche of foreclosures on the way, I am hoping banks will panic soon and lead the way downward with some more aggressive prices but I haven’t seen it yet.

[temeculaguy]

A year ago I got divorced after being a married homeowner for 15 years I didn’t have much of a clue about Real Estate other than the two houses I had owned. I assumed I would be fine, I made over 100k a year at a stable job that I’ve had for 15 years with an 800 fico, no debt other than a small car payment, no alimony, and a small chunk of money from being bought out on the house in my divorce. I was wrong! Prices were crazy and I found I could only buy something below my standards yet for the lionshare of my income. Where are all these people getting this money? This is insanity. Refusing anything other than a 15 or 30 fixed with 20% down, I was made to feel like someone clinging to an ancient religion. One saleswoman at a new development didn’t even know how to calculate those “old loans” on her computer.

Then I found this site and have been an avid reader here and in the news, watch the mls regularly and have become a student of the game. Thanks to this site I didn’t buy last year even though I almost had to. I am in a cash position and have watched things fall with each passing day while I save more. I don’t want to claim this site changed my life but it did, without it I would have bought in February of 2006, ten years from now we will look at graphs and that may end up being the peak of the graph, for that I thank you piggington. I will buy again, I could today but i won’t. I will keep my eye on the ball and hopefully I will be able to lean on others to guess the bottom or near bottom of this cycle.

[temeculaguy]

I looked at the pictures on Shutterfly and i think this house is in Morgan Hill based on the view and the maroon trashcan (the unincorporated areas use that color, city uses black,green,grey). Morgan Hill did sell some in the 8oo’s at the absolute peak but has been one of the first to fall because it has the highest taxes in the area and HOA. From memory it was 2.4% overall. I have found Morgan Hill houses at 499 for small one and could get this one for 650 so they are screwed. Morgan is one of the more expensive areas because it is on the extreme south and you can get to San Diego via Raimbow Canyon avoiding the checkpoint and the traffic, almost all of the southern residents are SD commuters. A search of rentals on the MLS showed the highest priced was 2500 and from my searches in person and online almost anything can be obtained for 2500. So why would their renter pay 3k plus over 1.5k a month in taxes, I just can’t believe it ever existed, even at the peak. The ods that the dumbest investor that ever lived managed to find the dumbest renter that ever lived is staggering. My guess is that it appeared on the S.D. craigslist and not the inland empire one to find someone who is thinking about SD numbers that may seem justifiable, but for this area it is not. It has to be a scam of some sort.

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/searchLocation.do?la=EN&per=mrmls

use zip code 92592 and check the leases and the sales prices, you will see they are off 200k for value and the rent is double.

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