This just in……..

[sdrealtor]

Comparing the decision to buy a home in 1987 with the decision to buy a home in 2007?

Aw shucks, C’mon…..

[Anonymous]

I could afford to buy a Ferrari, but it doesn’t make economic sense. Nor does buying any asset (i.e. home) that you KNOW is going to be depreciating in value. That is beyond moronic.

[temeculaguy]

Dean i take some of it back, I posted before you replied. We are about the same age and bought our first home at about the same time, so you have to see the difference. An e-4 can’t buy a house today without a toxic time bomb mortgage nor can his supervisor. A cop, fireman or teacher can’t buy. I bought my first house at 21 and I supervise a bunch of twentysomethings today with good jobs who literally cannot buy anything other than a converted apartment in a ghetto and that is still a stretch, it’s not apples and apples but I am pretty certain it will be again.

[Anonymous]

Hold on a sec, I’m still with you. I had to take a break for business. Let me catch up with what you all are saying and I’ll respond shortly. Thank you for your time and especially your open mindedness to consider my thoughts.
Dean

[Bugs]

As long as everyone is playing the game with their own money then nobody should feel sorry for anybody. I don’t feel sorry when a gambler goes to Vegas and loses their shirt “going for it”, why should I feel sorry for the homeowner playing RE Lotto? Likewise, I don’t begrudge the property owners who, whether by genius or more likely by luck, have made a ton of money during this upswing.

Nobody could have foreseen in 2001 what the ultimate effects would be of giving all that credit away. This last swing has been unprecedented, but the potential downside has always been known.

By now, everyone should understand that it isn’t how much you make but how much you keep that counts in the end. The people who are now facing the ravages of foreclosure could have avoided it had they paid attention to what was going on, so no, I don’t feel sorry for them beyond what I would feel for anyone who’s having a tough time. They made one or more bad decisions and they are just as deserving of what follows as the people who gambled and won.

Let us not forget that the people who really make enough money to debt service their loans at the regular rate are not the people who now face foreclosure. That loss is mostly reserved for the people who never should have bought at those prices to begin with, and that includes a lot of people who lied on their loan applications. I not only don’t feel sorry for them, I think they and their mortgage brokers and in some cases their realty agents should face criminal prosecution for mortgage fraud.

[Anonymous]

Trying to catch up with it all. Thanks Perry, for the correction about who lives where and what they own. I like a lot of what you had to say (though I don’t agree with it all) but I was confused on how “Going to school and learning new skills is taking a chance.” As far as how “Getting into debt to own something your can’t afford is not taking a chance; it’s stupidity.” I must disagree. Almost everything in life has a risk. If you play it safe all of the time you will likely (not always) be on the road most traveled, with the rest of the people on the BUS. Play it safe, stay where you are.
I say the following to answer a lot your peoples points at one time: I have no sympathy for those who were speculators and knew they were getting into a loan they could not afford or for those who were doing this as an investment to flip or whatever, for them, it’s a bad business decission, it happens, get over it and get on with life without expecting the help of the taxpayers.
SD Realtor, you said: “Dean -I cannot recall a single post where I wished bad things upon any people at all.”
here is what you said that got me into this thread: “Places that have established owners with alot of equity will ride it out pretty well… to the frustration of people like me who want to live there.” To me, you have implied that even those who bought and are well established, should fail so you can get in. That got me going.

salo_t, you’re not helping if you are simply preaching to the bishops, fathers and chior. If you want to help, quit agreeing with the crowd and get out to the masses. Give THEM your help. It seems everyone else already knows what you’re saying.

More coming…next response is to Temeculaguy

[PerryChase]

This thread is kinda fun. We need some controversy around here sometimes.

dcarl, as was mentioned before, very few can truly “afford” a home in San Diego so by your own definition, there’d be very few buyers. “Affording” a house using a toxic loan is only delaying in inevitable — foreclosure.

I own a home and it’s quadrupled so I’m no, I’m not a bitter renter. I’ve been wanting to “rightsize” and keep my current home but it hasn’t made sense yet.

We should expunge the ownership mentality out of minds. It’s the cost of shelter that counts. All else being equal, if you can rent for 1/2 the cost of buying then why buy? Even if you can afford it?

If your Navy officer invested his money well, he should be way ahead of the buyers who bet everything on housing. Remember, once appreciation stops, it costs a lot to service the debt.

Let’s put on our positive hat for a minute and assume that there’ll be no major price drop. Say we have a stagnant market for 7 to 10 years; and imagine a middle class family paying the interest-only on a $750k house year after year. At the end of that period, they’d have no savings and would be starting from zero. A rental family would have a substantial down-payment saved up to buy at that time.

[SD Realtor]

Dean it is nice debating with you.

So my statement,

“Places that have established owners with alot of equity will ride it out pretty well… to the frustration of people like me who want to live there.”

implied to you that I was wishing people ill will.

The statement is/was meant to imply that the neighborhoods that I want to live in have experienced little depreciation nor have they experienced many defaults. If you have read my postings then you know I have a family who DESPERATELY wants me to buy a home AND that I have submitted lowball offers in the past few months. You would also recall in my postings that I have indeed said that if you can afford to buy and you can afford to ride out the depreciation cycle that you should go ahead and buy. Furthermore I believe you also have read my postings on what I believe to be immeasureable (monetary wise) factors that are achieved by home ownership.

I am also puzzled on how you thought that I was implying that those who are well established should fail. Dean my whole point was those who are well established will not fail which is exactly why I believe some neighborhoods will hold up. They will simply ride things out because they don’t have to sell. They have equity, they have not selected risky loan vehicles, and they are stable homeowners.

With that said, if I implied that I would be happy by pain and suffering and misfortune upon people, I am sorry. However I will be happy for a market correction because it will be good for the market, and it will benefit me personally so that I could afford more home in the few neighborhoods that my wife and I agree on. I am a renter and I am bitter I didn’t buy more property when I could have and that I am priced out of where I want to live right now. I still own 2 rentals as I recently sold one of my others a few weeks ago. Again though, I do disagree with you about the statement in your posting about “taking a chance” regarding homebuyers.

SD Realtor

[Anonymous]

sdagent, I had no doubt you would know how to Google. I tried to Google you but I couldn’t narrow it down for sure, due to that fact that you couldn’t be original with your name. None the less, you still had nothing of value to say. Expose yourself if you want to criticize. Otherwise, move on with your loyal and no doubt similar protégés.

Temeculaguy, I’m glad you assimilate me with the “voice of reason” speakers, though I am not sure I deserve it. Late reading of your posting while I was writing a post: Correct, Rick Campbell is the writer of the economic trends outlook on my website. I agree with most of what he writes which is why I pay him to write it. The stuff I find objectionable or not within my prevue (spelling?), I change in the printed version of the subject matter. This, by the way is how I found my way to this site, as I was researching to replace something for this month’s newsletter. Now, I’ll get to my predictions in a moment, let me clear this up first…I do not hate computers. I have a tablet PC with a broadband wireless connection with me at all times. I say this not to brag, but to let you know that I truly know about it being the one eyed excuse for not producing. I use it far too much (like tonight) to hide from what I should really be doing. But you are right about the shagging babes and DONALD prediction; I have a wife, step son and four daughters (that I know of). And I resemble the internet porn statement! That said, I think I do not have enough knowledge or wisdom to try to influence anyone to do anything they do not already want to do. I am merely an information source for what is happening. I give facts about what I know, it’s true I do not know it all and probably do not know as much as some of you, but I DO tell what I know and I let them interpolate the data how they want to see it. True, if given the chance, I will put a positive spin on anything I feel should be that way. Not because I am trying to deceive anyone, but because it’s how I see the world. If at all possible, I try not to interject too much if any opinion about a house, condo etc. I have been rewarded with lots of referrals directly because of this policy. Good or bad, people do not care about what you think about a floor plan. They want to know what they ask you, no more, no less and sometimes they really don’t really want to know that.
Now if I truly wanted to be an egotist and try to predict what CANNOT be accurately and reasonably predicted, I would say that the market has dropped to a reasonably low price level and that the future looks bleak as far as appreciation is concerned. But, with San Diego experiencing the lowest levels of unemployment in the state and our economy not being tied to any particular sector (like when there was major defense contractor cuts), we are in a good position for stabilization. Our biggest problem is consumer confidence which is influenced by the printed media most of us support in our advertising and the local news for the deadheads that don’t read the paper (like me). Look at the prices of RE in Boston, New York city and Tokyo if you want to see a reason to call our city’s prices (the greatest city in the world) reasonable.
That’s about all the time I have for the night. I am sure there are a couple of pages of ridicule to respond to while I was typing this. I may look at this tomorrow, but I gotta tell you, it’s been enlightening in some ways, but it’s not the best way to spend my time. I hope that you can all get some sort of positive nugget from this “This just in…” thread. After all, we should all be coming here to improve ourselves, our business, the market and especially our nation.

[CardiffBaseball]

You come on the site, blasting the very people who were the voices of reason against the 50-60% reduction predictions. You spout Zig Ziglar. What is this popular book everyone is buying where you think positve to make good things happen? It reminds of these Name-It, Claim-It churches, or Amway that I was once stupid enough to get into while 23 and still in the military (You have to get on the two tapes a week program if you want to be successful).

I don’t wish harm on anyone, I didn’t brag when the NY Times said anyone who decided to rent vs. buy over the last two years was wise. Rather, I consider myself lucky, not smart. I moved here in Aug. of 2005, and buying at that time would have been a disaster, one because I would have bought off on a toxic suicide load, and two because it’s a good time to sit back on good pay, and kill some debt. Luckily I wasn’t under the spell of David Leareah.

Since you can’t possibly read everything on the site, given that you don’t have time, the two sd and SD realtor’s have generally encouraged people to be entrepreneurial. That doesn’t mean they blindly encourage investing in Real Estate right now. It’s just odd for a troll to come on here and attack the middle of the road types, and doesn’t speak well for your ability to comprehend.

How about the scam in Murrieta of people just “going for it” signing fraudulent documents stating they intend to live in the homes, knowing all along that they weren’t. 4-Closure ranch down 16% in a few months, and Del Sur down 12% in 4 months. All this before the forclosure announcement today?

Why are foreclosures on the rise, Dean? Assuming everything will be ok, I’d like to know what you think about the rising foreclosures.

[PerryChase]

Great point, cardiffbaseball.

Yes, what about the foreclosures? If the market is supposedly “stable” and only down a little as the realty folks pretend, then why all the foreclosures? Those homeowners had 6 to 9 months to sell before being foreclosed upon.

[SD Realtor]

Odd that you took my post as personal criticism. Noting that you took my statement opposite of what I intended to point out is not a personal criticism. You seem to mistake disagreement with criticism. I have posted my website and my personal information on Piggington before and was told that is not permissible. If you would like my personal information you can email me at [email protected]. I am sure you can find plenty of fodder and dig up plenty of dirt on me. I have never claimed to be a top producer nor a 20 year experienced agent. That doesn’t really bother me at all. I know that the people I have worked with were happy with my work and felt I was professional and saved them money regardless of whether they were a buyer or a seller. If you note I am strictly sticking to the topics of the post and commenting on statements you make.

SD Realtor

[ibjames]

When I read this post I don’t know if I should laugh or stick up for other piggingtons. In all honesty I know that I am one of the people that wishes to see foreclosures rise and prices fall. For flippers to fall flat on their faces and fraudsters to go to jail.

If this market stablizes, and this is the new trend. There will be a population decrease for sure. As my wife and I will be one of the many white collar professionals that loads up the uhaul for another area that’s affordable. Even though we make 120k+/yr, we can’t afford anything that makes sense.

My college roomie who loves SD more than anywhere and is basically a walking tour guide for SD has also admitted he has thought about moving, another white collar professional gone. I’m sure there would be others to follow.

How is that sustainable?

The funny thing about all of this is the attacking of both SDRealtors. Who often present data to people like me that many times isn’t what we want to hear. Prices sustaining, things not declining like they thought they would. Real data as they are out there to witness it first hand.

Enough attacks already, people took loans they couldn’t manage. (I almost did the same, until I really looked at the numbers) SDRealtors and anyone else. You shouldn’t feel the need to justify yourselves. Everyone that has been here for a while respects and appreciates your opinion already. You have nothing to prove.

I too find it funny that “take a chance” goes in line with buying a house. Some things I’m not willing to “take a chance” with.

[sdrealtor]

DC,
A couple points, you wont find me because I have no desire to found. My reason for being here is as pure as they come. I am here to learn and nothing else except have a little fun. I do not want nor need any more clients as I’m satisfied with how I run my business. If my goal was to make every last penny in the world I might do things differently but that is not my goal. My goal is to enjoy my time on this planet, share love and happiness with family/friends and give back to the community I so love. I ask questions and dont believe the BS that our companies feed us. I suspect you have been listening to the company line far too long. I know plenty of very good realtors that dont express their opinion and simply serve as a conduit of information. Unfortunately, it is not in my DNA to do that. If I see someone doing something that will harm them I prefer to put myself in harms way. 15 years ago I was on the boardwalk in PB and saw some guy steal a kids bike over the sea wall. He took off with the bike and the kid chasing him. The crowd of over 100 people separated like the Red Sea as no one wanted to get involved. I turned around and with no time to think about the repurcussion tackled him. That is what is inside me and I guess that’s stupid me who cant he watch bad things happen to good people.

The frustration expressed by SD R (who I often disagree vehemently with) is something I take to heart. The places he wants to live are occupied by people with the equity to ride out the storm. Most will not sell at market levels if they come down. He’s not looking for bad things to happen but rather for someone to be willing to sell at fair market value should he be able to afford it.

Blaming the media is ridiculous and while I think SD is a fabulous city comparing it to The City is equally ridiculous. SD is a very nice place and it fits my style perfectly but it is a large suburb not a real city. The amount of money coursing through the veins of NYC is mine boggling. I know as I worked there out of college and it is has a world wide profile that SD does not even approach. I’d never live there but I know better than to try to compare SD with it.

Occassionally, a realtor comes by thinking they might find some business here. Typically they are tar’d n feather’d then sent walking. If you want to learn, there are alot of bright people here to learn from. You have yet to contribute anything meaningful to this discussion but the door is still open. Stick around and contribute or disappear like many before you.

[anxvariety]

What a great read.. It’s refreshing to hear debate with such expressive and rich dialogue.. rarely do threads that start out the way this one did, end up recovering(oops maybe it hasn’t).

Message to dcarlos:
I know you rent a house in Scripps and have dogs, turtles etc.

That was the best laugh I’ve had in a while.. Hopefully not at whoever it was about expense.. I like reading both SD REALTORS posts with space and without.. I guess it was just one of those things that jumped out when I hadn’t expected. I don’t know if you were trying to be funny, if it’s true, even if it is true – I like dogs and turtles.. You just seem to start firing off in every direction. Future dirt on me, I have a feed mouse that’s in a box in my room.. I’m taking good care of it, and I’m not sure if letting it go would be better or worse for its overall life quality..

[Author]

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