This just in……..

[DaCounselor]

SD Realtor has it right regarding wide variations in foreclosures and valuations. Of course no area is absolutely immune, but we can already see how certain areas are holding up much, much better than others. My current neighborhood is holding up very well, with the most recent sale (March ’07) only about 5% down from the mid ’05 peak sales.

[Anonymous]

Desirable areas will get hit hard, too. We have friends here in La Jolla whom I strongly suspect have treated their homes as ATMs.

We’re at full employment, ARM resets have just started, and real interest rates are near historic lows. All three of these things will change for the worse over the next few years.

The fun has only JUST begun.

[sdrealtor]

I think JG is right but that the nicer areas wont be hit as hard or as early. Homeowners in those areas have a lrger margin of error to hang on, they have good jobs, some have family that can help and they are far more likely to have reserves. On the low end of the market there is no margin for error.

This got me to thinking that generally speaking homeowners in better areas will be OK for a nother 2 years or so. But when they hit the skids the market will already have been adversely affected many of the other less desireable areas and lending standards will be tougher.

[SD Realtor]

jg –

I think in general, the nicer areas will hold up better but by no means are they 100% immune. I believe they will eventually depreciate but not as dramatically as other neighborhoods. I am usually wrong so this may be the case as well. Boneheadedness notwithstanding, if people are not prudent and choose to take all the money out of their homes so that they cannot afford the ensuing payments then they will be pinned no matter how nice a neighborhood they live in. I believe this will happen less in highly desireable areas but stupidy has no zip codes.

SD Realtor

[Anonymous]

We can truly see who the optimists and pessimists are in this forum. I am new to this site as well as posting to any forum, but the pessimism and especially those who wish bad fortune on those who were branded “idiots” by many of these posters (in other threads), has made me want to put in my two cents.
We will go through a rough time, it has already started. Those of you who did not have an optimistic perception back in 1997, have probably been speculating about a bubble since January of 1998. I think it’s wrong to blame those who actually stepped out on a limb and took the opportunity to step into the American dream, for you not being able to afford a house, then, two years ago, or today. It’s pathetic that you would wish financial calamity on anyone, just so you will have an opportunity to buy a home for less and which you probably wouldn’t even take advantage of, due to your pessimistic attitude.
I am picking up that many of you are currently renters and also RE agents. I think you should turn in your license if you wish for all of these foreclosures just so you might be able to afford a house. There are better ways for you to be able to afford a home. Why don’t we hope prices come down enough so those who have the means, as well as guts, can buy one, instead of hoping those who reached out to grab a piece of the American dream lose their shirts for trying? Or better yet, prices stabilize and peoples income and circumstances improve so they can keep their piece of the pie. Go get your own piece, don’t hope someone chokes on theirs so you can eat the regurgitation.
Prices can come down without massive foreclosures. My best advice for those who meet the description of “my two cents” is “be careful of what you wish for”!

[LA_Renter]

IMO the missing piece of the puzzle is the answer to “are we going into a recession?” Think about it, this is getting ugly fast in an OK economy, what does this look like when and if we have negative job growth?? Take it from someone who knows, it is very difficult to replace a six figure income when you are laid off in a soft job market. I get chest pains thinking about that experience. Thats what will hit the nice areas. The people who bought at near peak prices are stretched as far as they can possibly stretch. One job loss in a two income household and that’s pretty much it. I don’t know if this will happen but it is starting to look like San Diego will lead the country into the next economic downturn. You cannot have RECORD BREAKING NOD’s and foreclosures and have the economy unscathed. Point being don’t be surprised to see the housing downturn speed up in ALL areas. IMHO

[LA_Renter]

DCarlso1,

PLEASE!!!

[an]

“There are better ways for you to be able to afford a home.”

Yeah, like my income rising 100%. I’ll take either result.

[sdrealtor]

Dcarlo has no idea as to the real personalities on this site. As he said, he just arrived. I’d take his comments with a grain of salt until he has a bit more tenure.

SDR
(a long time owner of prime piece of realestate w/ very small mortgage and a realistic perspective of what is going on who would love it if more nice young professional families could afford to be my neighbor rather than all the older folks who have replaced the ones that moved out)

[Anonymous]

LA_Renter, You’re the problem, not those who go for it. This is the land of opportunity. You have the same ability to get anything you want as those who have what you want. You just need to quit blaming others for having what you want. Only then, can get on with your life and figure out how to get you want. Keep in mind, you can only get what you want if you deserve to get it.
“You ca have anything you want if you just help enough people get what they want.” Zig Zigglar
Quit making excuses, get off your butt and quit your whinning. You deserve what you have if it’s what you went for.

[Anonymous]

sdrealtor, so I need to spend my life on blogs instead of selling homes in order to have an opinion and to wish better for people rather than misfortune? Get a life.

[sdrealtor]

DC,
I do not wish misfortune on anyone, quite the opposite. However, on this blog I am here to learn like most of the other meaningful participants around here. If you would like to add something meaningful to the discussion please do. if not it is you that needs to get a life.

To quote Lou Reed, the Rock and Roll Animal himself: My week beats your year!

[Anonymous]

So what are you learning and what have you done constructive? Enlighten me Top Producer.

[rube]

LA_Renter, You’re the problem, not those who go for it.

Yeah! You need to go for it! Go buy stuff you can’t afford and then put your victim hat on! Gimme a freakin’ bleeding heart break.

[sdrealtor]

Stick around, contribute something of value and you’ll find out for yourself. Otherwise, we’ve got enough occasional trolls stopping by and take off though we wish well.

[Author]

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