This just in……..

[sdrealtor]

March foreclosures shatter the old record.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070416-1159-bn16defaults.html

I wonder if we are just getting started?;)

[jimmyle]

Hopefully this continues to accelerate for the next two years to bring prices down to a level where young people can afford to buy a house.

[PerryChase]

There’s another one from LA Times.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-forclose17apr17,0,5052032.story?coll=la-home-headlines

Young people aren’t going to buy house because they’ll be out of work. We’ll see an exodus from SD to the mid-west and east where people came from.

It’s 1990 all over again. The people who’ve been here long enough will tell you so. It certainly feels like to me. At least I’m better prepared this time around.

[temeculaguy]

Holy crap, it looks like everything that was predicted is happening. Even David Lereah said on cnn that everything is fine except for San Diego and Miami. That guy takes far more than the recommended dose of happy pills and even he won’t back S.D., hell he won’t even go on T.V. today. Ken Heebner was just on Bloomberg and said prices will fall 20% and forelosures will set records not seen since the great depression. They invited the NAR’s economist to debate Heebner but he has laryngitis today (I think he’s in his pajamas in the fetal position with an empty bottle of whiskey next to him).

http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=144

What is your take sd? Is this the first shot or are forclosures still too small of the overall percentage of the market?

[pencilneck]

A quick comparison between now and 1996 adjusted for changes in population:

In 1996 we had a population of around 2.7 million with 337 foreclosures. Now we have a population of around 3.05 million with 433 foreclosures.

1996- 1 foreclosure per 8,012 residents
2007- 1 foreclosure per 7,044 residents

Even when adjusted for population growth this is a more significant number of foreclosures than 1996.

Also, didn’t we set a record in 2005 or 2004 for lowest number of foreclosures? Its earie how fast we went from setting record lows to record highs.

[PerryChase]

Great point you made pencilneck. We have lots of smart people here who think from every angle. That’s why I love this forum.

[sdrealtor]

Remember that the vast majority of this foreclosure activity is still in the least desireable areas. It is too early to declare a rout until it starts hitting the better areas. When and if that happens we’ll find out what people look like without their figurative clothes on.

[SD Realtor]

other SD Realtor here not sdrealtor.

IMO it is just the beginning. I think we will plow through any old records and not by just a little bit. I do believe and I know this is broken record time) that there will be wide variations on the price drops based on neighborhoods. Even within neighborhoods there will be severe discrepency. Using my own area Scripps, of which there is new and old Scripps. New Scripps will get pounded pretty hard and indeed the majority of the 95 listings active in that area right now are new Scripps. Old Scripps has continued to have very high demand. I would forecast most all distress sales will happen due to overextended buyers in the new housing including Stonebridge.

I think this will hold true for many neighborhoods. Places that are overbuilt, overbought, but have no redeeming value other then to provide a home for people will get pummelled hardest and will have the highest distress rate. Lump in flipper havens with these as well. These are your Eastlakes, and downtown condo market, even other speculative condo areas. Even nicer neighborhoods may fall into this category like 4S and some Carmel Valley cookie cutters. Other lower income neighborhoods that ran up fast for no reason. Look for these to get socked, Lemon Grove, southeast San Diego, and many many more. Places that have established owners with alot of equity will ride it out pretty well… to the frustration of people like me who want to live there.

but we already knew all of this… Let’s keep our fingers crossed the government keeps their darned nose out of this.

Right now percentage wise REO and shorts are a small percentage of the market. Also the lenders haven’t gotten desperate on pricing yet. Even if the numbers of REO’s gets large what we really need are desperate lenders. Personally I havent seen them get desperate on pricing yet. I cannot wait until they do… that should be fun.

[Ozzie]

Here’s some info on where foreclosures are happening in SD county:

http://www.voiceofsandiego.com/articles/2007/04/16/housing/932foreclosure041307.txt

Just like statewide where the inland areas (with some of the cheapest CA real estate) are being hit the hardest.

[PerryChase]

One very important piece of information should be noted. During the 1990s downturn foreclosures peaked in 1996 or six years into the housing slump. Today’s foreclosures have now surpassed the previous peak’s figures. And we are only 1+ year into our current housing slump.

Only time will tell what will happen 3-6 years into a slump. Of course, many are arguing that we have already hit bottom. I’m thinking that it’s just wishful thinking on the real estate boosters’ part.

[ibjames]

I’m beginning to wonder if we are going to see a rapid decline after all. It’s interesting and scary to see what lies for us down the road

[sdrealtor]

Nice pom-poms Ozzie

[Ozzie]

pom-poms? I posted an article that listed where the most foreclosures are occuring in SD county. The other article in the LA Times mentioned the areas outside the county getting hit hardest so I mentioned that as well.

Sorry if that offended you.

[sdrealtor]

Cmon Ozzie, every post you have made has been as a RE cheerleader. I wasnt offended but you arent fooling anyone.

[Ozzie]

Hey, I’d love to see prices come down 50% in desirable areas. I’d love to buy a shack with an ocean view near the beach in Encinitas or Carlsbad or Cardiff or God forbid Del Mar for $400k, but it doesn’t appear that’s likley. Not sure how that is cheerleading. I’d call it an opinion.

[Author]

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