Spring Housing Prediction

[Mark Holmes]

“$31 trillion erased…” trillion, with a T.

Judging by this, I’ll stick my neck out and say we’ll reach 1999 prices or lower by November of 2010. Today’s Bloomberg:

“Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) — Stocks declined worldwide and U.S. index futures fell as concern deepened that banks face more writedowns and the global recession will stifle profits. The yen rallied as investors shunned higher-yielding assets.

UBS AG and ING Groep NV dropped more than 6 percent after Citigroup Inc.’s plan to buy troubled investment-fund assets fueled speculation of more bank losses. Copper slumped for a third day and oil slid toward $50 a barrel, sending commodity producers lower. Treasuries rose, pushing two-year note yields to a record low as investors sought the safety of government bonds.

The MSCI World Index lost 1.8 percent to 806.81, the lowest since April 2003, as of 8:05 a.m. in London. More than $31 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities this year as the financial-market turmoil pushes countries from Europe to the U.S. and Japan into recession.”

[ocrenter]

I echo TG’s sentiment.

here’s the bottom line, if your target residence is something that can be in the rental pool, you now compete with money that would have otherwise gone into the stock market. that cash buyers that sdr is talking about. so 2001 pricing will be bottom. and getting there may be 2-3 more years.

however, if your target residence is something that’s big enough that it would not make sense in the rental pool, try 2000 pricing if not 1999 pricing. this is the big squish down rob dawg has been talking about for the last couple of years. this is likely now and even more so next year.

[ocrenter]

I echo TG’s sentiment.

here’s the bottom line, if your target residence is something that can be in the rental pool, you now compete with money that would have otherwise gone into the stock market. that cash buyers that sdr is talking about. so 2001 pricing will be bottom. and getting there may be 2-3 more years.

however, if your target residence is something that’s big enough that it would not make sense in the rental pool, try 2000 pricing if not 1999 pricing. this is the big squish down rob dawg has been talking about for the last couple of years. this is likely now and even more so next year.

[ocrenter]

I echo TG’s sentiment.

here’s the bottom line, if your target residence is something that can be in the rental pool, you now compete with money that would have otherwise gone into the stock market. that cash buyers that sdr is talking about. so 2001 pricing will be bottom. and getting there may be 2-3 more years.

however, if your target residence is something that’s big enough that it would not make sense in the rental pool, try 2000 pricing if not 1999 pricing. this is the big squish down rob dawg has been talking about for the last couple of years. this is likely now and even more so next year.

[ocrenter]

I echo TG’s sentiment.

here’s the bottom line, if your target residence is something that can be in the rental pool, you now compete with money that would have otherwise gone into the stock market. that cash buyers that sdr is talking about. so 2001 pricing will be bottom. and getting there may be 2-3 more years.

however, if your target residence is something that’s big enough that it would not make sense in the rental pool, try 2000 pricing if not 1999 pricing. this is the big squish down rob dawg has been talking about for the last couple of years. this is likely now and even more so next year.

[ocrenter]

I echo TG’s sentiment.

here’s the bottom line, if your target residence is something that can be in the rental pool, you now compete with money that would have otherwise gone into the stock market. that cash buyers that sdr is talking about. so 2001 pricing will be bottom. and getting there may be 2-3 more years.

however, if your target residence is something that’s big enough that it would not make sense in the rental pool, try 2000 pricing if not 1999 pricing. this is the big squish down rob dawg has been talking about for the last couple of years. this is likely now and even more so next year.

[blahblahblah]

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Totally agree. But I think what most of the folks on this board are saying is — “Well, buying is still more expensive than renting so I guess I will continue to rent”. Now in areas like Temecula that may not be true anymore because we’ve already had huge price declines there. If I could live in Temecula I would be looking seriously at buying now.

Another thing to remember is that on the way up, the majority of people were buying because their friends and family and the TV said they should. Guess what? On the way down, the majority of people will avoid buying because their friends and family and the TV will say they shouldn’t.

Psychology and E-Z Credit drove it up.

Psychology and Old Fashioned Credit will drive it down.

[blahblahblah]

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Totally agree. But I think what most of the folks on this board are saying is — “Well, buying is still more expensive than renting so I guess I will continue to rent”. Now in areas like Temecula that may not be true anymore because we’ve already had huge price declines there. If I could live in Temecula I would be looking seriously at buying now.

Another thing to remember is that on the way up, the majority of people were buying because their friends and family and the TV said they should. Guess what? On the way down, the majority of people will avoid buying because their friends and family and the TV will say they shouldn’t.

Psychology and E-Z Credit drove it up.

Psychology and Old Fashioned Credit will drive it down.

[blahblahblah]

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Totally agree. But I think what most of the folks on this board are saying is — “Well, buying is still more expensive than renting so I guess I will continue to rent”. Now in areas like Temecula that may not be true anymore because we’ve already had huge price declines there. If I could live in Temecula I would be looking seriously at buying now.

Another thing to remember is that on the way up, the majority of people were buying because their friends and family and the TV said they should. Guess what? On the way down, the majority of people will avoid buying because their friends and family and the TV will say they shouldn’t.

Psychology and E-Z Credit drove it up.

Psychology and Old Fashioned Credit will drive it down.

[blahblahblah]

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Totally agree. But I think what most of the folks on this board are saying is — “Well, buying is still more expensive than renting so I guess I will continue to rent”. Now in areas like Temecula that may not be true anymore because we’ve already had huge price declines there. If I could live in Temecula I would be looking seriously at buying now.

Another thing to remember is that on the way up, the majority of people were buying because their friends and family and the TV said they should. Guess what? On the way down, the majority of people will avoid buying because their friends and family and the TV will say they shouldn’t.

Psychology and E-Z Credit drove it up.

Psychology and Old Fashioned Credit will drive it down.

[blahblahblah]

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Totally agree. But I think what most of the folks on this board are saying is — “Well, buying is still more expensive than renting so I guess I will continue to rent”. Now in areas like Temecula that may not be true anymore because we’ve already had huge price declines there. If I could live in Temecula I would be looking seriously at buying now.

Another thing to remember is that on the way up, the majority of people were buying because their friends and family and the TV said they should. Guess what? On the way down, the majority of people will avoid buying because their friends and family and the TV will say they shouldn’t.

Psychology and E-Z Credit drove it up.

Psychology and Old Fashioned Credit will drive it down.

[sdrealtor]

concho,
two words for those aging DM property owners in need of cash flow: reverse mortgage

There are other options also but that one should be pretty obvious. The family wants to keep the parents primo beach house with a 25K tax basis. In good markets transaction volume in places like that are low. In bad times, even lower.

[sdrealtor]

concho,
two words for those aging DM property owners in need of cash flow: reverse mortgage

There are other options also but that one should be pretty obvious. The family wants to keep the parents primo beach house with a 25K tax basis. In good markets transaction volume in places like that are low. In bad times, even lower.

[sdrealtor]

concho,
two words for those aging DM property owners in need of cash flow: reverse mortgage

There are other options also but that one should be pretty obvious. The family wants to keep the parents primo beach house with a 25K tax basis. In good markets transaction volume in places like that are low. In bad times, even lower.

[sdrealtor]

concho,
two words for those aging DM property owners in need of cash flow: reverse mortgage

There are other options also but that one should be pretty obvious. The family wants to keep the parents primo beach house with a 25K tax basis. In good markets transaction volume in places like that are low. In bad times, even lower.

[Author]

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