Spring Housing Prediction

[sdrealtor]

Ok, time for someone who actually sees whats going on at the street level to stick his neck out. I’m going to go against the popular wisdom and declare that it is going to be a very good Spring for real estate. Sales will be strong and pricing may even creep up a little in some markets. Based upon what I am seeing, there are lots of buyers out there chasing very limited inventory under $600K. I am getting piles of offers on nice but nothing special homes the first week in this price range. All have at least 20% down and went up from there to all cash. I probably could have had twice as many offers if I didnt chase a few away that were lower than the ones I already had.

Between 600K and 800K I expect a very strong market also. I am seeing lots of folks who sold at the top who are sick of renting wanting back in. They see the market has fallen by at least 50% of what they think is possible and they dont want to wait another 3 to 4 years for the rest of the bloodletting. I see lots of previously priced out buyers wanting back in. Some were priced out by choice (i.e. bubblesitters) and some were truly priced out. Either way, alot of them want back in. From here on out the declines are going to be much slower.

Above 800K and in particular over $1M its still going to be pretty slow.

My advice for the other Realtors on this board is to collect as many listings as you can before February because there is gonna be alot of money to be made this Spring. Happy Hunting!

[TheBreeze]

I think I’m going to become a realtor so I can tap into some of this government largesse. There’s no reason to work for a living when I can suck off the gubmint’ teat.

[TheBreeze]

I think I’m going to become a realtor so I can tap into some of this government largesse. There’s no reason to work for a living when I can suck off the gubmint’ teat.

[TheBreeze]

I think I’m going to become a realtor so I can tap into some of this government largesse. There’s no reason to work for a living when I can suck off the gubmint’ teat.

[TheBreeze]

I think I’m going to become a realtor so I can tap into some of this government largesse. There’s no reason to work for a living when I can suck off the gubmint’ teat.

[TheBreeze]

I think I’m going to become a realtor so I can tap into some of this government largesse. There’s no reason to work for a living when I can suck off the gubmint’ teat.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with some of your predictions, but have most areas in sd hit 50% declines? I do think it is a magic number, that and rent multiplier. I actually think it may be brisk sales for areas with the greatest declines and declining sales and prices for areas thus mostly immune. My prediction is that the areas with the greatest declines percentage wise will have the increase in sales. The areas with lower percentage declines will flounder, even if they are better places, status is becoming less chic and economizing is in. Even amongst piggies, there was a long thread about O’side vs. Carlsbad and most felt Carlsbad wasn’t worth twice the money since O’side had fallen harder, as the differential spreads wider, so will go the shoppers.

My reason for this thesis is that my valley has already seen sales increase dramatically, despite worldwide economic calamities and layoffs. Bidding wars, multiple offers, 5+ offers on listing day are common right now, in what should be a terrible time, the reason is entirely that the price is now right (for most, but not all listings). If SD sheds another 10-15% in the next four months, or if areas hit 50% off peak or 2001 pricing, it will take off and many will jump off the fence. According to Rich’s graph, detached are down 38% and condo about 48%, it just may get there by spring, but my guess is that some areas are down 50% and some are down 25%, so get your listings in the 50% areas. Since half the posters want to buy in Carmel Valley and it has been the stickiest, I predict that if it doesn’t start a quick chunk down, they will be looking a town or two over.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with some of your predictions, but have most areas in sd hit 50% declines? I do think it is a magic number, that and rent multiplier. I actually think it may be brisk sales for areas with the greatest declines and declining sales and prices for areas thus mostly immune. My prediction is that the areas with the greatest declines percentage wise will have the increase in sales. The areas with lower percentage declines will flounder, even if they are better places, status is becoming less chic and economizing is in. Even amongst piggies, there was a long thread about O’side vs. Carlsbad and most felt Carlsbad wasn’t worth twice the money since O’side had fallen harder, as the differential spreads wider, so will go the shoppers.

My reason for this thesis is that my valley has already seen sales increase dramatically, despite worldwide economic calamities and layoffs. Bidding wars, multiple offers, 5+ offers on listing day are common right now, in what should be a terrible time, the reason is entirely that the price is now right (for most, but not all listings). If SD sheds another 10-15% in the next four months, or if areas hit 50% off peak or 2001 pricing, it will take off and many will jump off the fence. According to Rich’s graph, detached are down 38% and condo about 48%, it just may get there by spring, but my guess is that some areas are down 50% and some are down 25%, so get your listings in the 50% areas. Since half the posters want to buy in Carmel Valley and it has been the stickiest, I predict that if it doesn’t start a quick chunk down, they will be looking a town or two over.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with some of your predictions, but have most areas in sd hit 50% declines? I do think it is a magic number, that and rent multiplier. I actually think it may be brisk sales for areas with the greatest declines and declining sales and prices for areas thus mostly immune. My prediction is that the areas with the greatest declines percentage wise will have the increase in sales. The areas with lower percentage declines will flounder, even if they are better places, status is becoming less chic and economizing is in. Even amongst piggies, there was a long thread about O’side vs. Carlsbad and most felt Carlsbad wasn’t worth twice the money since O’side had fallen harder, as the differential spreads wider, so will go the shoppers.

My reason for this thesis is that my valley has already seen sales increase dramatically, despite worldwide economic calamities and layoffs. Bidding wars, multiple offers, 5+ offers on listing day are common right now, in what should be a terrible time, the reason is entirely that the price is now right (for most, but not all listings). If SD sheds another 10-15% in the next four months, or if areas hit 50% off peak or 2001 pricing, it will take off and many will jump off the fence. According to Rich’s graph, detached are down 38% and condo about 48%, it just may get there by spring, but my guess is that some areas are down 50% and some are down 25%, so get your listings in the 50% areas. Since half the posters want to buy in Carmel Valley and it has been the stickiest, I predict that if it doesn’t start a quick chunk down, they will be looking a town or two over.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with some of your predictions, but have most areas in sd hit 50% declines? I do think it is a magic number, that and rent multiplier. I actually think it may be brisk sales for areas with the greatest declines and declining sales and prices for areas thus mostly immune. My prediction is that the areas with the greatest declines percentage wise will have the increase in sales. The areas with lower percentage declines will flounder, even if they are better places, status is becoming less chic and economizing is in. Even amongst piggies, there was a long thread about O’side vs. Carlsbad and most felt Carlsbad wasn’t worth twice the money since O’side had fallen harder, as the differential spreads wider, so will go the shoppers.

My reason for this thesis is that my valley has already seen sales increase dramatically, despite worldwide economic calamities and layoffs. Bidding wars, multiple offers, 5+ offers on listing day are common right now, in what should be a terrible time, the reason is entirely that the price is now right (for most, but not all listings). If SD sheds another 10-15% in the next four months, or if areas hit 50% off peak or 2001 pricing, it will take off and many will jump off the fence. According to Rich’s graph, detached are down 38% and condo about 48%, it just may get there by spring, but my guess is that some areas are down 50% and some are down 25%, so get your listings in the 50% areas. Since half the posters want to buy in Carmel Valley and it has been the stickiest, I predict that if it doesn’t start a quick chunk down, they will be looking a town or two over.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with some of your predictions, but have most areas in sd hit 50% declines? I do think it is a magic number, that and rent multiplier. I actually think it may be brisk sales for areas with the greatest declines and declining sales and prices for areas thus mostly immune. My prediction is that the areas with the greatest declines percentage wise will have the increase in sales. The areas with lower percentage declines will flounder, even if they are better places, status is becoming less chic and economizing is in. Even amongst piggies, there was a long thread about O’side vs. Carlsbad and most felt Carlsbad wasn’t worth twice the money since O’side had fallen harder, as the differential spreads wider, so will go the shoppers.

My reason for this thesis is that my valley has already seen sales increase dramatically, despite worldwide economic calamities and layoffs. Bidding wars, multiple offers, 5+ offers on listing day are common right now, in what should be a terrible time, the reason is entirely that the price is now right (for most, but not all listings). If SD sheds another 10-15% in the next four months, or if areas hit 50% off peak or 2001 pricing, it will take off and many will jump off the fence. According to Rich’s graph, detached are down 38% and condo about 48%, it just may get there by spring, but my guess is that some areas are down 50% and some are down 25%, so get your listings in the 50% areas. Since half the posters want to buy in Carmel Valley and it has been the stickiest, I predict that if it doesn’t start a quick chunk down, they will be looking a town or two over.

[peterb]

I think there’s a very good chance that the real estate market could experience a “relief rally” just as the stock market probably will going into March or April of 2009. By the same logic that prices are now so low that there are bargains to be had. I will be looking to sell into this myself. My only concern is that unemployment could trump this in a big way if more lay-offs come down the pike in the next few months.

[peterb]

I think there’s a very good chance that the real estate market could experience a “relief rally” just as the stock market probably will going into March or April of 2009. By the same logic that prices are now so low that there are bargains to be had. I will be looking to sell into this myself. My only concern is that unemployment could trump this in a big way if more lay-offs come down the pike in the next few months.

[peterb]

I think there’s a very good chance that the real estate market could experience a “relief rally” just as the stock market probably will going into March or April of 2009. By the same logic that prices are now so low that there are bargains to be had. I will be looking to sell into this myself. My only concern is that unemployment could trump this in a big way if more lay-offs come down the pike in the next few months.

[peterb]

I think there’s a very good chance that the real estate market could experience a “relief rally” just as the stock market probably will going into March or April of 2009. By the same logic that prices are now so low that there are bargains to be had. I will be looking to sell into this myself. My only concern is that unemployment could trump this in a big way if more lay-offs come down the pike in the next few months.

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