Spring Housing Prediction

[CA renter]

Agree that this spring will probably see pretty brisk sales…but we’ll see slower activity than 2008 (which was very high activity).

Also thinking we’ll see major price drops in the more desirable neighborhoods by Q3 2009, for an average of around 30-45% off peak in 92024 and 92009 (that’s for you sdrealtor!). 😉

I think 2008 saw the dead-cat bounce in sales which resulted in stickier prices in the upper-mid to high end properties.

After an initial period of elation in the first two quarters of 2009, activity will drop like a rock around August of next year due to macroeconomic trends (massive deflation and unemployment hitting 10%+ in California). This will also be the time that all those “re-worked” mortgages run into trouble again, and we finally see the wall of foreclosures that the govt has been trying to artificially hold back.

[barnaby33]

sdrealtor, housing news has been so unremittingly bad for 18 months now it almost has to get better, for a while. Nothing goes straight down, not even the home builders.

I for one would love to see a strong selling (and buying) season come spring. It would help confirm to me that the secular trend is still on a whole moving in the right direction. 91-95 saw several of these rallies.

For prices to end up where I’ve predicted all along without any counter trend rallies would just be insane. 50% off is a lot of paper wealth vaporized.

[barnaby33]

sdrealtor, housing news has been so unremittingly bad for 18 months now it almost has to get better, for a while. Nothing goes straight down, not even the home builders.

I for one would love to see a strong selling (and buying) season come spring. It would help confirm to me that the secular trend is still on a whole moving in the right direction. 91-95 saw several of these rallies.

For prices to end up where I’ve predicted all along without any counter trend rallies would just be insane. 50% off is a lot of paper wealth vaporized.

[barnaby33]

sdrealtor, housing news has been so unremittingly bad for 18 months now it almost has to get better, for a while. Nothing goes straight down, not even the home builders.

I for one would love to see a strong selling (and buying) season come spring. It would help confirm to me that the secular trend is still on a whole moving in the right direction. 91-95 saw several of these rallies.

For prices to end up where I’ve predicted all along without any counter trend rallies would just be insane. 50% off is a lot of paper wealth vaporized.

[barnaby33]

sdrealtor, housing news has been so unremittingly bad for 18 months now it almost has to get better, for a while. Nothing goes straight down, not even the home builders.

I for one would love to see a strong selling (and buying) season come spring. It would help confirm to me that the secular trend is still on a whole moving in the right direction. 91-95 saw several of these rallies.

For prices to end up where I’ve predicted all along without any counter trend rallies would just be insane. 50% off is a lot of paper wealth vaporized.

[barnaby33]

sdrealtor, housing news has been so unremittingly bad for 18 months now it almost has to get better, for a while. Nothing goes straight down, not even the home builders.

I for one would love to see a strong selling (and buying) season come spring. It would help confirm to me that the secular trend is still on a whole moving in the right direction. 91-95 saw several of these rallies.

For prices to end up where I’ve predicted all along without any counter trend rallies would just be insane. 50% off is a lot of paper wealth vaporized.

[NotCranky]

sdr,

Have you ever said prices will go down fast sdr?Have you ever said they will go down anything but slowly? The only time “really fast” came up you made a special thread to contest it and were wrong. Yeah, you will be right sooner or later.You have to be. I don’t see a point in the last year and half where housing has gone down slowly though.Well maybe a brief pause for a month or two. In the experience of buyers, those little pauses are meaningless.

The statistical median will begin to slow towards the eventual trough with or without hiccups,seasonal or whatever. Prices above that will be compressing.

Sure it is a better market for realtors and buyers. I have definitely tempered my stance from, “don’t buy unless you are rich”, to well “maybe it won’t hurt too badly and maybe it’s will be a good investment in some cases”. This ought to be better for my business than it was while I was saying “you must be crazy to buy in this market houses are falling fast!” It sucked being the only realtor saying that.

[NotCranky]

sdr,

Have you ever said prices will go down fast sdr?Have you ever said they will go down anything but slowly? The only time “really fast” came up you made a special thread to contest it and were wrong. Yeah, you will be right sooner or later.You have to be. I don’t see a point in the last year and half where housing has gone down slowly though.Well maybe a brief pause for a month or two. In the experience of buyers, those little pauses are meaningless.

The statistical median will begin to slow towards the eventual trough with or without hiccups,seasonal or whatever. Prices above that will be compressing.

Sure it is a better market for realtors and buyers. I have definitely tempered my stance from, “don’t buy unless you are rich”, to well “maybe it won’t hurt too badly and maybe it’s will be a good investment in some cases”. This ought to be better for my business than it was while I was saying “you must be crazy to buy in this market houses are falling fast!” It sucked being the only realtor saying that.

[NotCranky]

sdr,

Have you ever said prices will go down fast sdr?Have you ever said they will go down anything but slowly? The only time “really fast” came up you made a special thread to contest it and were wrong. Yeah, you will be right sooner or later.You have to be. I don’t see a point in the last year and half where housing has gone down slowly though.Well maybe a brief pause for a month or two. In the experience of buyers, those little pauses are meaningless.

The statistical median will begin to slow towards the eventual trough with or without hiccups,seasonal or whatever. Prices above that will be compressing.

Sure it is a better market for realtors and buyers. I have definitely tempered my stance from, “don’t buy unless you are rich”, to well “maybe it won’t hurt too badly and maybe it’s will be a good investment in some cases”. This ought to be better for my business than it was while I was saying “you must be crazy to buy in this market houses are falling fast!” It sucked being the only realtor saying that.

[NotCranky]

sdr,

Have you ever said prices will go down fast sdr?Have you ever said they will go down anything but slowly? The only time “really fast” came up you made a special thread to contest it and were wrong. Yeah, you will be right sooner or later.You have to be. I don’t see a point in the last year and half where housing has gone down slowly though.Well maybe a brief pause for a month or two. In the experience of buyers, those little pauses are meaningless.

The statistical median will begin to slow towards the eventual trough with or without hiccups,seasonal or whatever. Prices above that will be compressing.

Sure it is a better market for realtors and buyers. I have definitely tempered my stance from, “don’t buy unless you are rich”, to well “maybe it won’t hurt too badly and maybe it’s will be a good investment in some cases”. This ought to be better for my business than it was while I was saying “you must be crazy to buy in this market houses are falling fast!” It sucked being the only realtor saying that.

[NotCranky]

sdr,

Have you ever said prices will go down fast sdr?Have you ever said they will go down anything but slowly? The only time “really fast” came up you made a special thread to contest it and were wrong. Yeah, you will be right sooner or later.You have to be. I don’t see a point in the last year and half where housing has gone down slowly though.Well maybe a brief pause for a month or two. In the experience of buyers, those little pauses are meaningless.

The statistical median will begin to slow towards the eventual trough with or without hiccups,seasonal or whatever. Prices above that will be compressing.

Sure it is a better market for realtors and buyers. I have definitely tempered my stance from, “don’t buy unless you are rich”, to well “maybe it won’t hurt too badly and maybe it’s will be a good investment in some cases”. This ought to be better for my business than it was while I was saying “you must be crazy to buy in this market houses are falling fast!” It sucked being the only realtor saying that.

[SD Realtor]

I am a bit more reserved in my opinion. I have seen brisk activity in the investor stock condos in the central area as well as sub 400k stock in places like Mira Mesa and Clairemont. Ditto for 500k stock in PQ and 600k stock in Encinitas and Carlsbad. I have a buyer who has been scorched on 4 listings in that range in Carlsbad and Encinitas in the past 3 weeks. The home on El Rastro went quite quick and he wanted to save 10k on his asking price and thus lost out because of that.

Good odds that the 600-800k stuff will move in places like CV and 4S but above that I am skeptical. Also we really have to see if/when the tech layoffs will begin. If that starts to happen in earnest things may not be so robust.

It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.

[SD Realtor]

I am a bit more reserved in my opinion. I have seen brisk activity in the investor stock condos in the central area as well as sub 400k stock in places like Mira Mesa and Clairemont. Ditto for 500k stock in PQ and 600k stock in Encinitas and Carlsbad. I have a buyer who has been scorched on 4 listings in that range in Carlsbad and Encinitas in the past 3 weeks. The home on El Rastro went quite quick and he wanted to save 10k on his asking price and thus lost out because of that.

Good odds that the 600-800k stuff will move in places like CV and 4S but above that I am skeptical. Also we really have to see if/when the tech layoffs will begin. If that starts to happen in earnest things may not be so robust.

It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.

[SD Realtor]

I am a bit more reserved in my opinion. I have seen brisk activity in the investor stock condos in the central area as well as sub 400k stock in places like Mira Mesa and Clairemont. Ditto for 500k stock in PQ and 600k stock in Encinitas and Carlsbad. I have a buyer who has been scorched on 4 listings in that range in Carlsbad and Encinitas in the past 3 weeks. The home on El Rastro went quite quick and he wanted to save 10k on his asking price and thus lost out because of that.

Good odds that the 600-800k stuff will move in places like CV and 4S but above that I am skeptical. Also we really have to see if/when the tech layoffs will begin. If that starts to happen in earnest things may not be so robust.

It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.

[SD Realtor]

I am a bit more reserved in my opinion. I have seen brisk activity in the investor stock condos in the central area as well as sub 400k stock in places like Mira Mesa and Clairemont. Ditto for 500k stock in PQ and 600k stock in Encinitas and Carlsbad. I have a buyer who has been scorched on 4 listings in that range in Carlsbad and Encinitas in the past 3 weeks. The home on El Rastro went quite quick and he wanted to save 10k on his asking price and thus lost out because of that.

Good odds that the 600-800k stuff will move in places like CV and 4S but above that I am skeptical. Also we really have to see if/when the tech layoffs will begin. If that starts to happen in earnest things may not be so robust.

It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.

[Author]

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