Spring Housing Prediction

[SD Realtor]

I am a bit more reserved in my opinion. I have seen brisk activity in the investor stock condos in the central area as well as sub 400k stock in places like Mira Mesa and Clairemont. Ditto for 500k stock in PQ and 600k stock in Encinitas and Carlsbad. I have a buyer who has been scorched on 4 listings in that range in Carlsbad and Encinitas in the past 3 weeks. The home on El Rastro went quite quick and he wanted to save 10k on his asking price and thus lost out because of that.

Good odds that the 600-800k stuff will move in places like CV and 4S but above that I am skeptical. Also we really have to see if/when the tech layoffs will begin. If that starts to happen in earnest things may not be so robust.

It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.

[LA_Renter]

Good points made by all. I always respect both realtors opinions given their front line perspective.

“It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.”

In my little corner of the world, this is happening right now and it is getting worse. I deal with in a commodity type product that sales into a distributor based network of business supplies/service providers that encompass most facets of the service, industrial, municipal and energy segments of the economy. Let me give you an example of some of the stories I am hearing out there. One of my distributors services large chain restaurants (Macaroni Grill, Maggionos, Red Robin etc) At the busiest location of one of their top chains in S. Cal they will service 3000 napkins on a Friday, during the turmoil that number dropped to 600 and they have only rebounded to 50% to 60% of original volume. This is anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt but that is what I am seeing. Executives throughout America are getting this type of feedback across the country right now. If you were to ask me the Spring of 09 will be in the throws of one of the worst economic downturns post WW2, I still don’t think we will actually hit a depression but there will be times when it will feel like one. How this environment could translate into a strong Spring housing market is beyond me. Up to this point in time we have dealt with a pricing / mortgage issue, we have not dealt with a true fundamental downturn in the economy like we are entering right now. During the Spring of 09 we will be getting headlines of a possible 4% to 8% reduction in GDP during the 4th and 1rst quarters along with layoffs in full force. This will be a time of Max fear and pain of one’s own livelihood, not the stock, bond, or housing market, but one’s own job. The true financially secure will be out buying, but I don’t see enough of them to truly drive the market. Just my two cents. We will see in about 6 months.

[LA_Renter]

Good points made by all. I always respect both realtors opinions given their front line perspective.

“It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.”

In my little corner of the world, this is happening right now and it is getting worse. I deal with in a commodity type product that sales into a distributor based network of business supplies/service providers that encompass most facets of the service, industrial, municipal and energy segments of the economy. Let me give you an example of some of the stories I am hearing out there. One of my distributors services large chain restaurants (Macaroni Grill, Maggionos, Red Robin etc) At the busiest location of one of their top chains in S. Cal they will service 3000 napkins on a Friday, during the turmoil that number dropped to 600 and they have only rebounded to 50% to 60% of original volume. This is anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt but that is what I am seeing. Executives throughout America are getting this type of feedback across the country right now. If you were to ask me the Spring of 09 will be in the throws of one of the worst economic downturns post WW2, I still don’t think we will actually hit a depression but there will be times when it will feel like one. How this environment could translate into a strong Spring housing market is beyond me. Up to this point in time we have dealt with a pricing / mortgage issue, we have not dealt with a true fundamental downturn in the economy like we are entering right now. During the Spring of 09 we will be getting headlines of a possible 4% to 8% reduction in GDP during the 4th and 1rst quarters along with layoffs in full force. This will be a time of Max fear and pain of one’s own livelihood, not the stock, bond, or housing market, but one’s own job. The true financially secure will be out buying, but I don’t see enough of them to truly drive the market. Just my two cents. We will see in about 6 months.

[LA_Renter]

Good points made by all. I always respect both realtors opinions given their front line perspective.

“It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.”

In my little corner of the world, this is happening right now and it is getting worse. I deal with in a commodity type product that sales into a distributor based network of business supplies/service providers that encompass most facets of the service, industrial, municipal and energy segments of the economy. Let me give you an example of some of the stories I am hearing out there. One of my distributors services large chain restaurants (Macaroni Grill, Maggionos, Red Robin etc) At the busiest location of one of their top chains in S. Cal they will service 3000 napkins on a Friday, during the turmoil that number dropped to 600 and they have only rebounded to 50% to 60% of original volume. This is anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt but that is what I am seeing. Executives throughout America are getting this type of feedback across the country right now. If you were to ask me the Spring of 09 will be in the throws of one of the worst economic downturns post WW2, I still don’t think we will actually hit a depression but there will be times when it will feel like one. How this environment could translate into a strong Spring housing market is beyond me. Up to this point in time we have dealt with a pricing / mortgage issue, we have not dealt with a true fundamental downturn in the economy like we are entering right now. During the Spring of 09 we will be getting headlines of a possible 4% to 8% reduction in GDP during the 4th and 1rst quarters along with layoffs in full force. This will be a time of Max fear and pain of one’s own livelihood, not the stock, bond, or housing market, but one’s own job. The true financially secure will be out buying, but I don’t see enough of them to truly drive the market. Just my two cents. We will see in about 6 months.

[LA_Renter]

Good points made by all. I always respect both realtors opinions given their front line perspective.

“It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.”

In my little corner of the world, this is happening right now and it is getting worse. I deal with in a commodity type product that sales into a distributor based network of business supplies/service providers that encompass most facets of the service, industrial, municipal and energy segments of the economy. Let me give you an example of some of the stories I am hearing out there. One of my distributors services large chain restaurants (Macaroni Grill, Maggionos, Red Robin etc) At the busiest location of one of their top chains in S. Cal they will service 3000 napkins on a Friday, during the turmoil that number dropped to 600 and they have only rebounded to 50% to 60% of original volume. This is anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt but that is what I am seeing. Executives throughout America are getting this type of feedback across the country right now. If you were to ask me the Spring of 09 will be in the throws of one of the worst economic downturns post WW2, I still don’t think we will actually hit a depression but there will be times when it will feel like one. How this environment could translate into a strong Spring housing market is beyond me. Up to this point in time we have dealt with a pricing / mortgage issue, we have not dealt with a true fundamental downturn in the economy like we are entering right now. During the Spring of 09 we will be getting headlines of a possible 4% to 8% reduction in GDP during the 4th and 1rst quarters along with layoffs in full force. This will be a time of Max fear and pain of one’s own livelihood, not the stock, bond, or housing market, but one’s own job. The true financially secure will be out buying, but I don’t see enough of them to truly drive the market. Just my two cents. We will see in about 6 months.

[LA_Renter]

Good points made by all. I always respect both realtors opinions given their front line perspective.

“It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.”

In my little corner of the world, this is happening right now and it is getting worse. I deal with in a commodity type product that sales into a distributor based network of business supplies/service providers that encompass most facets of the service, industrial, municipal and energy segments of the economy. Let me give you an example of some of the stories I am hearing out there. One of my distributors services large chain restaurants (Macaroni Grill, Maggionos, Red Robin etc) At the busiest location of one of their top chains in S. Cal they will service 3000 napkins on a Friday, during the turmoil that number dropped to 600 and they have only rebounded to 50% to 60% of original volume. This is anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt but that is what I am seeing. Executives throughout America are getting this type of feedback across the country right now. If you were to ask me the Spring of 09 will be in the throws of one of the worst economic downturns post WW2, I still don’t think we will actually hit a depression but there will be times when it will feel like one. How this environment could translate into a strong Spring housing market is beyond me. Up to this point in time we have dealt with a pricing / mortgage issue, we have not dealt with a true fundamental downturn in the economy like we are entering right now. During the Spring of 09 we will be getting headlines of a possible 4% to 8% reduction in GDP during the 4th and 1rst quarters along with layoffs in full force. This will be a time of Max fear and pain of one’s own livelihood, not the stock, bond, or housing market, but one’s own job. The true financially secure will be out buying, but I don’t see enough of them to truly drive the market. Just my two cents. We will see in about 6 months.

[sdrealtor]

CA Renter
30 to 45% is a huge difference. You’ll get your 30% off but not your 45% Q3 2009.

Rus,
For the record I was not wrong. My comments were made regarding my sub-market but I didnt do a good job delineating that. My sub-market has been on a pretty orderly march down without major downward chuns. Sure I was surprised how quickly things chunked down in the outlying areas like Jamul;) but that is not what I follow or know well.

Also you werent the only Realtor saying that. It sucked for me too walking away from over a dozen deals I could have done. I’m sure Adam felt the same way.

SD R,
Your observations mirror what I am seeing and what I believe will happen.

Isn’t it nice to be talking about real estate for change?

[sdrealtor]

CA Renter
30 to 45% is a huge difference. You’ll get your 30% off but not your 45% Q3 2009.

Rus,
For the record I was not wrong. My comments were made regarding my sub-market but I didnt do a good job delineating that. My sub-market has been on a pretty orderly march down without major downward chuns. Sure I was surprised how quickly things chunked down in the outlying areas like Jamul;) but that is not what I follow or know well.

Also you werent the only Realtor saying that. It sucked for me too walking away from over a dozen deals I could have done. I’m sure Adam felt the same way.

SD R,
Your observations mirror what I am seeing and what I believe will happen.

Isn’t it nice to be talking about real estate for change?

[sdrealtor]

CA Renter
30 to 45% is a huge difference. You’ll get your 30% off but not your 45% Q3 2009.

Rus,
For the record I was not wrong. My comments were made regarding my sub-market but I didnt do a good job delineating that. My sub-market has been on a pretty orderly march down without major downward chuns. Sure I was surprised how quickly things chunked down in the outlying areas like Jamul;) but that is not what I follow or know well.

Also you werent the only Realtor saying that. It sucked for me too walking away from over a dozen deals I could have done. I’m sure Adam felt the same way.

SD R,
Your observations mirror what I am seeing and what I believe will happen.

Isn’t it nice to be talking about real estate for change?

[sdrealtor]

CA Renter
30 to 45% is a huge difference. You’ll get your 30% off but not your 45% Q3 2009.

Rus,
For the record I was not wrong. My comments were made regarding my sub-market but I didnt do a good job delineating that. My sub-market has been on a pretty orderly march down without major downward chuns. Sure I was surprised how quickly things chunked down in the outlying areas like Jamul;) but that is not what I follow or know well.

Also you werent the only Realtor saying that. It sucked for me too walking away from over a dozen deals I could have done. I’m sure Adam felt the same way.

SD R,
Your observations mirror what I am seeing and what I believe will happen.

Isn’t it nice to be talking about real estate for change?

[sdrealtor]

CA Renter
30 to 45% is a huge difference. You’ll get your 30% off but not your 45% Q3 2009.

Rus,
For the record I was not wrong. My comments were made regarding my sub-market but I didnt do a good job delineating that. My sub-market has been on a pretty orderly march down without major downward chuns. Sure I was surprised how quickly things chunked down in the outlying areas like Jamul;) but that is not what I follow or know well.

Also you werent the only Realtor saying that. It sucked for me too walking away from over a dozen deals I could have done. I’m sure Adam felt the same way.

SD R,
Your observations mirror what I am seeing and what I believe will happen.

Isn’t it nice to be talking about real estate for change?

[peterb]

Sounds like the most sales activity, by far, is in the $400K and below range. Is this an accurate statement?

[peterb]

Sounds like the most sales activity, by far, is in the $400K and below range. Is this an accurate statement?

[peterb]

Sounds like the most sales activity, by far, is in the $400K and below range. Is this an accurate statement?

[peterb]

Sounds like the most sales activity, by far, is in the $400K and below range. Is this an accurate statement?

[Author]

Posts