Spring Housing Prediction

[peterb]

I think there’s a very good chance that the real estate market could experience a “relief rally” just as the stock market probably will going into March or April of 2009. By the same logic that prices are now so low that there are bargains to be had. I will be looking to sell into this myself. My only concern is that unemployment could trump this in a big way if more lay-offs come down the pike in the next few months.

[socrattt]

Peterb, you pinned the tail on the donkey!!! Unemployment is going to dash all hopes of an upward trend next year. I love the optimism, but from a realistic standpoint, I just don’t see this happening. If unemployment is held in check at under 10% nationally there would be a chance, but we are creeping up very quickly and the likelihood is about as good as the Chargers making the playoffs. I need to see the coastal market down another 15-20% before I call any bargains at the beach. There is a bit of optimism in that phrase, but hey we got a bunch of hopeful people so why not join the club?

[socrattt]

Peterb, you pinned the tail on the donkey!!! Unemployment is going to dash all hopes of an upward trend next year. I love the optimism, but from a realistic standpoint, I just don’t see this happening. If unemployment is held in check at under 10% nationally there would be a chance, but we are creeping up very quickly and the likelihood is about as good as the Chargers making the playoffs. I need to see the coastal market down another 15-20% before I call any bargains at the beach. There is a bit of optimism in that phrase, but hey we got a bunch of hopeful people so why not join the club?

[socrattt]

Peterb, you pinned the tail on the donkey!!! Unemployment is going to dash all hopes of an upward trend next year. I love the optimism, but from a realistic standpoint, I just don’t see this happening. If unemployment is held in check at under 10% nationally there would be a chance, but we are creeping up very quickly and the likelihood is about as good as the Chargers making the playoffs. I need to see the coastal market down another 15-20% before I call any bargains at the beach. There is a bit of optimism in that phrase, but hey we got a bunch of hopeful people so why not join the club?

[socrattt]

Peterb, you pinned the tail on the donkey!!! Unemployment is going to dash all hopes of an upward trend next year. I love the optimism, but from a realistic standpoint, I just don’t see this happening. If unemployment is held in check at under 10% nationally there would be a chance, but we are creeping up very quickly and the likelihood is about as good as the Chargers making the playoffs. I need to see the coastal market down another 15-20% before I call any bargains at the beach. There is a bit of optimism in that phrase, but hey we got a bunch of hopeful people so why not join the club?

[socrattt]

Peterb, you pinned the tail on the donkey!!! Unemployment is going to dash all hopes of an upward trend next year. I love the optimism, but from a realistic standpoint, I just don’t see this happening. If unemployment is held in check at under 10% nationally there would be a chance, but we are creeping up very quickly and the likelihood is about as good as the Chargers making the playoffs. I need to see the coastal market down another 15-20% before I call any bargains at the beach. There is a bit of optimism in that phrase, but hey we got a bunch of hopeful people so why not join the club?

[sdrealtor]

TG
Most areas have not hit 50% declines off peak but perhaps I didnt do a proper job explaining what I meant. What I meant was that at least half of the potential damage has already been done even in the sticky areas with the possible exception of the high and very high end homes (i.e.$1.5M plus). For example, my own home is about 25% off peak. If it fell another 25% of that peak number it would be too cheap and demand would far outstrip supply.

Here are some hypotentical numbers to show what I’m talking about. If it was $1M at peak its about $750K now. I dont think it is possible that it would hit $500K which would be below the pre-bubble price plus post builder necessary upgrades (i.e. applainces, paint, window treatments, landscap/hardscape). I also dont think all except the most ardent bubblesitters would think $500K was possible. If it was there would be hoards of buyers.

Carmel Valley and other North County Coastal areas will continue to creep down for the next few years. Chunks are very unlikely at this point unless we hit 20% unemplyment. Additionally, Carmel Valley buyers arent going to Oceanside even if housing is free in Oceanside.

[sdrealtor]

TG
Most areas have not hit 50% declines off peak but perhaps I didnt do a proper job explaining what I meant. What I meant was that at least half of the potential damage has already been done even in the sticky areas with the possible exception of the high and very high end homes (i.e.$1.5M plus). For example, my own home is about 25% off peak. If it fell another 25% of that peak number it would be too cheap and demand would far outstrip supply.

Here are some hypotentical numbers to show what I’m talking about. If it was $1M at peak its about $750K now. I dont think it is possible that it would hit $500K which would be below the pre-bubble price plus post builder necessary upgrades (i.e. applainces, paint, window treatments, landscap/hardscape). I also dont think all except the most ardent bubblesitters would think $500K was possible. If it was there would be hoards of buyers.

Carmel Valley and other North County Coastal areas will continue to creep down for the next few years. Chunks are very unlikely at this point unless we hit 20% unemplyment. Additionally, Carmel Valley buyers arent going to Oceanside even if housing is free in Oceanside.

[sdrealtor]

TG
Most areas have not hit 50% declines off peak but perhaps I didnt do a proper job explaining what I meant. What I meant was that at least half of the potential damage has already been done even in the sticky areas with the possible exception of the high and very high end homes (i.e.$1.5M plus). For example, my own home is about 25% off peak. If it fell another 25% of that peak number it would be too cheap and demand would far outstrip supply.

Here are some hypotentical numbers to show what I’m talking about. If it was $1M at peak its about $750K now. I dont think it is possible that it would hit $500K which would be below the pre-bubble price plus post builder necessary upgrades (i.e. applainces, paint, window treatments, landscap/hardscape). I also dont think all except the most ardent bubblesitters would think $500K was possible. If it was there would be hoards of buyers.

Carmel Valley and other North County Coastal areas will continue to creep down for the next few years. Chunks are very unlikely at this point unless we hit 20% unemplyment. Additionally, Carmel Valley buyers arent going to Oceanside even if housing is free in Oceanside.

[sdrealtor]

TG
Most areas have not hit 50% declines off peak but perhaps I didnt do a proper job explaining what I meant. What I meant was that at least half of the potential damage has already been done even in the sticky areas with the possible exception of the high and very high end homes (i.e.$1.5M plus). For example, my own home is about 25% off peak. If it fell another 25% of that peak number it would be too cheap and demand would far outstrip supply.

Here are some hypotentical numbers to show what I’m talking about. If it was $1M at peak its about $750K now. I dont think it is possible that it would hit $500K which would be below the pre-bubble price plus post builder necessary upgrades (i.e. applainces, paint, window treatments, landscap/hardscape). I also dont think all except the most ardent bubblesitters would think $500K was possible. If it was there would be hoards of buyers.

Carmel Valley and other North County Coastal areas will continue to creep down for the next few years. Chunks are very unlikely at this point unless we hit 20% unemplyment. Additionally, Carmel Valley buyers arent going to Oceanside even if housing is free in Oceanside.

[sdrealtor]

TG
Most areas have not hit 50% declines off peak but perhaps I didnt do a proper job explaining what I meant. What I meant was that at least half of the potential damage has already been done even in the sticky areas with the possible exception of the high and very high end homes (i.e.$1.5M plus). For example, my own home is about 25% off peak. If it fell another 25% of that peak number it would be too cheap and demand would far outstrip supply.

Here are some hypotentical numbers to show what I’m talking about. If it was $1M at peak its about $750K now. I dont think it is possible that it would hit $500K which would be below the pre-bubble price plus post builder necessary upgrades (i.e. applainces, paint, window treatments, landscap/hardscape). I also dont think all except the most ardent bubblesitters would think $500K was possible. If it was there would be hoards of buyers.

Carmel Valley and other North County Coastal areas will continue to creep down for the next few years. Chunks are very unlikely at this point unless we hit 20% unemplyment. Additionally, Carmel Valley buyers arent going to Oceanside even if housing is free in Oceanside.

[sdrealtor]

socratt,
I think you’ll see another 15 -20% off the peak numbers at the beach. Are you willing to wait 2 to 3 years for it? There are plenty of folks who wont wait. More than enough IMO to suck up the limited supply that will hit the market.

[sdrealtor]

socratt,
I think you’ll see another 15 -20% off the peak numbers at the beach. Are you willing to wait 2 to 3 years for it? There are plenty of folks who wont wait. More than enough IMO to suck up the limited supply that will hit the market.

[sdrealtor]

socratt,
I think you’ll see another 15 -20% off the peak numbers at the beach. Are you willing to wait 2 to 3 years for it? There are plenty of folks who wont wait. More than enough IMO to suck up the limited supply that will hit the market.

[sdrealtor]

socratt,
I think you’ll see another 15 -20% off the peak numbers at the beach. Are you willing to wait 2 to 3 years for it? There are plenty of folks who wont wait. More than enough IMO to suck up the limited supply that will hit the market.

[Author]

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