Spring Housing Prediction

[La Jolla Renter]

TG, great point that with 10% unemployment 90% are still employed.

The 90% that are still employed are making a heck of a lot less income, have no housing ATM income to tap, and their credit cards are maxed out. I think our San Diego economy is ugly now, and people haven’t even started to really hunker down yet.

[LA_Renter]

“One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment.”

That is a little too simple, here is something to ponder. When you go from 5% to 10% unemployment see headlines of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, a stock market crash, and data more than likely showing the worst recession in our lifetimes……What is the psychological impact on the 90% that are still employed??

The company I work for is very typical of Corporate America. Right now they are finalizing budgets for 09. The bean counters come in and say here is your expected revenue line for your division. With that revenue line we can support X amount of employees. If the revenue line is not hit we have to adjust to Y amount of employees. Now who gets cut, are you top heavy? then that would be middle and upper management, are we over staffed? cut staff, is our sales marketing strategy flawed? cut sales and marketing. Who is it going to be?? If you are in the wrong place at the wrong time in this environment it does not matter how talented or hard working you are. I have been through lesser versions of this before and have been shocked at some people that were…..Let go.

I am one of those people, I make a good six figure income with a very large down payment. Could I afford to buy right now? Yes Am I going to buy right now? Hell NO! Not in this crap. There are a whole lot of people like me right now.

Now I don’t know how this impacts N. County SD or the South Bay LA thats why I always like to read the Realtors take on things. There is obviously alot of money in CA. The point I am making is that when looking at the argument for a strong spring season, which has validity, it is my opinion that we don’t know the extent on psychology from the bottom to the top of the market this particular economic downturn is going to have. That is a variable that has not been determined.

Nor-LA-SD-guy,

We could have a nuclear armageddon and you will still get stuck on the 405.

[LA_Renter]

“One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment.”

That is a little too simple, here is something to ponder. When you go from 5% to 10% unemployment see headlines of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, a stock market crash, and data more than likely showing the worst recession in our lifetimes……What is the psychological impact on the 90% that are still employed??

The company I work for is very typical of Corporate America. Right now they are finalizing budgets for 09. The bean counters come in and say here is your expected revenue line for your division. With that revenue line we can support X amount of employees. If the revenue line is not hit we have to adjust to Y amount of employees. Now who gets cut, are you top heavy? then that would be middle and upper management, are we over staffed? cut staff, is our sales marketing strategy flawed? cut sales and marketing. Who is it going to be?? If you are in the wrong place at the wrong time in this environment it does not matter how talented or hard working you are. I have been through lesser versions of this before and have been shocked at some people that were…..Let go.

I am one of those people, I make a good six figure income with a very large down payment. Could I afford to buy right now? Yes Am I going to buy right now? Hell NO! Not in this crap. There are a whole lot of people like me right now.

Now I don’t know how this impacts N. County SD or the South Bay LA thats why I always like to read the Realtors take on things. There is obviously alot of money in CA. The point I am making is that when looking at the argument for a strong spring season, which has validity, it is my opinion that we don’t know the extent on psychology from the bottom to the top of the market this particular economic downturn is going to have. That is a variable that has not been determined.

Nor-LA-SD-guy,

We could have a nuclear armageddon and you will still get stuck on the 405.

[LA_Renter]

“One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment.”

That is a little too simple, here is something to ponder. When you go from 5% to 10% unemployment see headlines of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, a stock market crash, and data more than likely showing the worst recession in our lifetimes……What is the psychological impact on the 90% that are still employed??

The company I work for is very typical of Corporate America. Right now they are finalizing budgets for 09. The bean counters come in and say here is your expected revenue line for your division. With that revenue line we can support X amount of employees. If the revenue line is not hit we have to adjust to Y amount of employees. Now who gets cut, are you top heavy? then that would be middle and upper management, are we over staffed? cut staff, is our sales marketing strategy flawed? cut sales and marketing. Who is it going to be?? If you are in the wrong place at the wrong time in this environment it does not matter how talented or hard working you are. I have been through lesser versions of this before and have been shocked at some people that were…..Let go.

I am one of those people, I make a good six figure income with a very large down payment. Could I afford to buy right now? Yes Am I going to buy right now? Hell NO! Not in this crap. There are a whole lot of people like me right now.

Now I don’t know how this impacts N. County SD or the South Bay LA thats why I always like to read the Realtors take on things. There is obviously alot of money in CA. The point I am making is that when looking at the argument for a strong spring season, which has validity, it is my opinion that we don’t know the extent on psychology from the bottom to the top of the market this particular economic downturn is going to have. That is a variable that has not been determined.

Nor-LA-SD-guy,

We could have a nuclear armageddon and you will still get stuck on the 405.

[LA_Renter]

“One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment.”

That is a little too simple, here is something to ponder. When you go from 5% to 10% unemployment see headlines of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, a stock market crash, and data more than likely showing the worst recession in our lifetimes……What is the psychological impact on the 90% that are still employed??

The company I work for is very typical of Corporate America. Right now they are finalizing budgets for 09. The bean counters come in and say here is your expected revenue line for your division. With that revenue line we can support X amount of employees. If the revenue line is not hit we have to adjust to Y amount of employees. Now who gets cut, are you top heavy? then that would be middle and upper management, are we over staffed? cut staff, is our sales marketing strategy flawed? cut sales and marketing. Who is it going to be?? If you are in the wrong place at the wrong time in this environment it does not matter how talented or hard working you are. I have been through lesser versions of this before and have been shocked at some people that were…..Let go.

I am one of those people, I make a good six figure income with a very large down payment. Could I afford to buy right now? Yes Am I going to buy right now? Hell NO! Not in this crap. There are a whole lot of people like me right now.

Now I don’t know how this impacts N. County SD or the South Bay LA thats why I always like to read the Realtors take on things. There is obviously alot of money in CA. The point I am making is that when looking at the argument for a strong spring season, which has validity, it is my opinion that we don’t know the extent on psychology from the bottom to the top of the market this particular economic downturn is going to have. That is a variable that has not been determined.

Nor-LA-SD-guy,

We could have a nuclear armageddon and you will still get stuck on the 405.

[LA_Renter]

“One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment.”

That is a little too simple, here is something to ponder. When you go from 5% to 10% unemployment see headlines of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, a stock market crash, and data more than likely showing the worst recession in our lifetimes……What is the psychological impact on the 90% that are still employed??

The company I work for is very typical of Corporate America. Right now they are finalizing budgets for 09. The bean counters come in and say here is your expected revenue line for your division. With that revenue line we can support X amount of employees. If the revenue line is not hit we have to adjust to Y amount of employees. Now who gets cut, are you top heavy? then that would be middle and upper management, are we over staffed? cut staff, is our sales marketing strategy flawed? cut sales and marketing. Who is it going to be?? If you are in the wrong place at the wrong time in this environment it does not matter how talented or hard working you are. I have been through lesser versions of this before and have been shocked at some people that were…..Let go.

I am one of those people, I make a good six figure income with a very large down payment. Could I afford to buy right now? Yes Am I going to buy right now? Hell NO! Not in this crap. There are a whole lot of people like me right now.

Now I don’t know how this impacts N. County SD or the South Bay LA thats why I always like to read the Realtors take on things. There is obviously alot of money in CA. The point I am making is that when looking at the argument for a strong spring season, which has validity, it is my opinion that we don’t know the extent on psychology from the bottom to the top of the market this particular economic downturn is going to have. That is a variable that has not been determined.

Nor-LA-SD-guy,

We could have a nuclear armageddon and you will still get stuck on the 405.

[sdrealtor]

Some great posts and I’d love to address them now but have a very busy day ahead. I’ll get to all of them later.

If nothing else, I accomplished what I set out to do with this post which is to try to stimulate some poignant conversation on RE. Thanks to everyone for jumping in.

I will address one quickly for ocr. I dont think the change in limits will have a huge effect as the market that will be affected is already very dead and not where the action will be. Very few desireable homes in those price ranges are being listed so supply and demand are balancing to reduce the impact up there. I beleive there are enough buyers with enough cash to suck up what supply there will be. Prices will continue dropping from above while the bottom builds stability. As an aside, I have a low end property in escrow that looks like it is going to sell for about 75X monthly rental income. A cash buyer would get nearly a 20% return on their cash.

[sdrealtor]

Some great posts and I’d love to address them now but have a very busy day ahead. I’ll get to all of them later.

If nothing else, I accomplished what I set out to do with this post which is to try to stimulate some poignant conversation on RE. Thanks to everyone for jumping in.

I will address one quickly for ocr. I dont think the change in limits will have a huge effect as the market that will be affected is already very dead and not where the action will be. Very few desireable homes in those price ranges are being listed so supply and demand are balancing to reduce the impact up there. I beleive there are enough buyers with enough cash to suck up what supply there will be. Prices will continue dropping from above while the bottom builds stability. As an aside, I have a low end property in escrow that looks like it is going to sell for about 75X monthly rental income. A cash buyer would get nearly a 20% return on their cash.

[sdrealtor]

Some great posts and I’d love to address them now but have a very busy day ahead. I’ll get to all of them later.

If nothing else, I accomplished what I set out to do with this post which is to try to stimulate some poignant conversation on RE. Thanks to everyone for jumping in.

I will address one quickly for ocr. I dont think the change in limits will have a huge effect as the market that will be affected is already very dead and not where the action will be. Very few desireable homes in those price ranges are being listed so supply and demand are balancing to reduce the impact up there. I beleive there are enough buyers with enough cash to suck up what supply there will be. Prices will continue dropping from above while the bottom builds stability. As an aside, I have a low end property in escrow that looks like it is going to sell for about 75X monthly rental income. A cash buyer would get nearly a 20% return on their cash.

[sdrealtor]

Some great posts and I’d love to address them now but have a very busy day ahead. I’ll get to all of them later.

If nothing else, I accomplished what I set out to do with this post which is to try to stimulate some poignant conversation on RE. Thanks to everyone for jumping in.

I will address one quickly for ocr. I dont think the change in limits will have a huge effect as the market that will be affected is already very dead and not where the action will be. Very few desireable homes in those price ranges are being listed so supply and demand are balancing to reduce the impact up there. I beleive there are enough buyers with enough cash to suck up what supply there will be. Prices will continue dropping from above while the bottom builds stability. As an aside, I have a low end property in escrow that looks like it is going to sell for about 75X monthly rental income. A cash buyer would get nearly a 20% return on their cash.

[sdrealtor]

Some great posts and I’d love to address them now but have a very busy day ahead. I’ll get to all of them later.

If nothing else, I accomplished what I set out to do with this post which is to try to stimulate some poignant conversation on RE. Thanks to everyone for jumping in.

I will address one quickly for ocr. I dont think the change in limits will have a huge effect as the market that will be affected is already very dead and not where the action will be. Very few desireable homes in those price ranges are being listed so supply and demand are balancing to reduce the impact up there. I beleive there are enough buyers with enough cash to suck up what supply there will be. Prices will continue dropping from above while the bottom builds stability. As an aside, I have a low end property in escrow that looks like it is going to sell for about 75X monthly rental income. A cash buyer would get nearly a 20% return on their cash.

[peterb]

The world economic outlook is shaping up to be the worst in 80 years. Comparing this to anything anyone on this site has experienced is probably going to be misleading at best. Given this environment, making a large, highly leveraged, highly iliquid investment in a depreciating asset, is extremely risky.

10% unemployment is not going to be happening in a vacuum, it will be accompanied by falling RE prices and a host of other negative trends. All of the sudden that $100K that was earmarked as a RE down-payment starts to look more like back-up plan for paying bills.
Put this all together and people will not want to be buying houses.

[peterb]

The world economic outlook is shaping up to be the worst in 80 years. Comparing this to anything anyone on this site has experienced is probably going to be misleading at best. Given this environment, making a large, highly leveraged, highly iliquid investment in a depreciating asset, is extremely risky.

10% unemployment is not going to be happening in a vacuum, it will be accompanied by falling RE prices and a host of other negative trends. All of the sudden that $100K that was earmarked as a RE down-payment starts to look more like back-up plan for paying bills.
Put this all together and people will not want to be buying houses.

[peterb]

The world economic outlook is shaping up to be the worst in 80 years. Comparing this to anything anyone on this site has experienced is probably going to be misleading at best. Given this environment, making a large, highly leveraged, highly iliquid investment in a depreciating asset, is extremely risky.

10% unemployment is not going to be happening in a vacuum, it will be accompanied by falling RE prices and a host of other negative trends. All of the sudden that $100K that was earmarked as a RE down-payment starts to look more like back-up plan for paying bills.
Put this all together and people will not want to be buying houses.

[peterb]

The world economic outlook is shaping up to be the worst in 80 years. Comparing this to anything anyone on this site has experienced is probably going to be misleading at best. Given this environment, making a large, highly leveraged, highly iliquid investment in a depreciating asset, is extremely risky.

10% unemployment is not going to be happening in a vacuum, it will be accompanied by falling RE prices and a host of other negative trends. All of the sudden that $100K that was earmarked as a RE down-payment starts to look more like back-up plan for paying bills.
Put this all together and people will not want to be buying houses.

[Author]

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